What % chance would you say D'Andre Swift becomes the clear-cut #1 RB for PHI now?
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What % chance would you say D'Andre Swift becomes the clear-cut #1 RB for PHI now? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
I would go with 0 if it was an option. I think they want a committee. I think this will be like the Pats traditionally, week to week changes will drive you insane. I am also not at all confident Swift can handle even half hat volume on a consistent basis, so spreading that around is a good thing.
jumper
Footballguy
Well it's pretty clear Penny isn't going to be more than a returner/depth guy. I think the Eagles are concerned about not overworking Swift and getting him injured due to over-use; they want him active for the playoffs. So IMHO it's going to be a Gainwell/Swift 1A/1B situation all year, with who is playing the 1A and split percentage being game dependent on a weekly basis. Whichever of them gets more touches any given game will be a solid start - depending on how many TD runs that Hurts vultures you're looking at really good Flex at worst and upper tier RB2 at best any given week.
Chaka
Footballguy
This sounds about right.
Banger
Footballguy
Scott was running thru gaping holes as well and until he got hurt which gave more touches to swift. Swift ran well but both guys weren’t getting touched for 3-5 yards…the run blocking was nuts.
The coaches saw these guys all off season and Gainwell dominated touches game 1. He got hurt and gave Swift a chance and he did well so he’s back in the mix. The coaches aren’t going to forgot what they liked better about Gainwell. Swift earned more touches but no way the outright job.
The coaches saw these guys all off season and Gainwell dominated touches game 1. He got hurt and gave Swift a chance and he did well so he’s back in the mix. The coaches aren’t going to forgot what they liked better about Gainwell. Swift earned more touches but no way the outright job.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Siriani has been very clear this is a committee and he'll stay with the hot hand. This week it was Swift. Next week it could be Scott and when Gainwell is healthy he'll get his carries again.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
0 percent chance. Can he be the lead back and get 40 to 50 percent of the touches weekly sure, but he will never be a Barkley, CMC, Jacobs type workload over an entire season.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
except (a) the coaches don't agree with you, and (b) last year's second half / playoffs production doesn't agree with you.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
This is where I am as well.
All we can conclude so far is that Penny is RB4 and isn’t seeing the ball unless there are injuries to the others.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
It's obvious Penny isn't going to have any role unless there is an injury. Boston Scott is ahead of him and #3 on depth chart. Swift and Gainwell will get the bulk, but trying to figure out which one will get more is a lesson in futility. Swift, IMO has a 50% of being the #1, it's either him or Gainwell.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Neither the eagles nor Sirriani going back to his days with the Colts have any precedents of wanting to run a committee. Gainwell is a fine rb but he is not good enough to be the guy. Swift is.
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
I expect a Swift lead committee. I feel like the Eagles only gave Swift 2 touches in week 1 because they planned to feature him after the short turnaround on Thursday Night. Going to be difficult to predict game to game.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Swift had 31 touches. No RB could handle that volume on a consistent basis. That would equate to 527 touches over 17 games (even James Wilder in 1984 wasn't on that pace). But half that is only 15.5 touches per game, and he can certainly handle that. And if he got 15.5 touches per game, he would be a decent RB2. FWIW, I voted less than 25% as well.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
The thing that I keep coming back to is the Eagles coaches had OTAs and a full training camp with Swift and Gainwell. They evaluated them, drew up plays for them, practiced with them and got to know them inside and out. Then week 1 gave Gainwell all the work. Is that an outlier or is that an insight into what the coaches think about Gainwell vs. Swift?
unckeyherb
Footballguy
I posted the below a while ago in the Swift thread but it addresses the idea that the team was somehow enamored with Gainwell end of last year…
Picking up at the end of the season...(italicized games, Hurts was out so presumably they'd be relying on the run game MORE).
Week 15 vs Chicago-Miles: 11 carries, Gainwell-3 carries
Week 16 vs Dallas-Miles: 21 carries, Gainwell: 4 carries
Week 17 vs NO-Miles: 16 carries, Gainwell: 0 carries
Week 18 vs Giants-Miles: 11 carries, Gainwell 5 carries
So in the last four games of the year, 3 of which, Minshew was the starter, Sanders carried 59 times versus Gainwell carrying 12 times.
Divisional Round against Giants-Miles: 17 carries, Gainwell: 12 carries. This game was over at halftime with the Eagles up 28-0. Gainwell had only 3 carries in the first half. Miles only had 2 in the first drive of the third quarter and then 2 in the first drive of the fourth.
Conference Championship against SF: Miles 14 carries, Gainwell: 14 carries. This game was also clearly over early. Gainwell had 1 carry for 0 yards in the first quarter and 2 carries in the second quarter. He didn't touch the ball again until SF was forced to put Brock Purdy back in the game and in the fourth quarter, with SF sporting McCaffery at QB Gainwell carried the ball 8 times in a row.
Super Bowl: Miles: 7 carries, Gainwell: 7 carries. This is the only outlier game where Gainwell got some meaningful work alongside Miles, but don't forget, Miles fumbled out of bounds on the second play of the game and they barely ran the ball trying to keep up with KC.
This myth that the coaching staff suddenly became enamored with Gainwell is totally false. The game logs show it. He got almost no meaningful carries in the last seven games of the season and I don't see it changing this year with a BETTER RB than last year starting ahead of him.
I'm thinking about 30%. I think this is a RBBC, but if Gainwell can't get healthy, I think Swift is quite a bit ahead of Penny. I think Gainwell could still be the lead on more pass heavy game scripts.
Philly isn't gonna be this run heavy most weeks. For whatever reason, Hurts was having a horrible 1st half, and they just adjusted to the Vikings D that was having a really hard time tackling. Next week will probably be an AJ Brown week or something.
Philly isn't gonna be this run heavy most weeks. For whatever reason, Hurts was having a horrible 1st half, and they just adjusted to the Vikings D that was having a really hard time tackling. Next week will probably be an AJ Brown week or something.
Terpman22
Footballguy
I honestly think its a little of them trying to be loyal to both their guy they drafted and as well as to their own egos trying to make it work. But looking at the results, its clear Swift is a far superior talent than Gainwell. There is not way I see Gainwell getting anything close to the % he had in game 1 moving forward, probably a 60/40 split or ratio of these 2 backs and sprinkling in some Scott. And yeah, Penny is pretty much dead.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I divested myself of my only piece of the Eagles' running game -- I had bought Penny for $3 in a $250-cap 10-team auction league as an RB6-ish. After he was inactive in week 1, I cut him for Allgeier, who was mysteriously not drafted. Otherwise I've avoided it. It's going to be too hard to predict who gets what from week to week.
If by clear cut #1RB you mean something like the workload that Sanders got last year I opted to vote over 75%. Though I'd choose to think of it more as the opportunity lies before Swift, it's up to him to keep his grip.
If Penny has a role it appears it will be later. Scott's just a breather/COP guy and Gainwell's combo of lack of explosion and power is not sustainable for much of a non-passing down workload.
If Penny has a role it appears it will be later. Scott's just a breather/COP guy and Gainwell's combo of lack of explosion and power is not sustainable for much of a non-passing down workload.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Swift is going to be the lead back and get most of the touches. It’s not going to be 30 touches a game but he will get at least half that.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
@Joe Bryant sorry I dont know how to vote on this poll the way you have asked it.
It depends on how one defines a clear cut #1 RB for the Eagles.
I think Swift is the most talented RB they have and should score the most fantasy points of their options over the course of the season. I thought this before the season began and said so when another poster asked which Eagle RB would we want to have. He is the only one I was interested in rostering.
That does not mean there wont be some RBBC though. Which would mean Swift is not the ckear cut #1
In the previous thtead some opined that Gainwell was more interesting for them because of being lower ADP. Then what happened week 1 showed that he might be useful to have as well. What happens when he is healthy again?
What Swift was able to do vs the Vikings should not be a clear definition of what lies ahead for Swift and the Eagles. The Vikings were not even playing 3 defensive linemen at many parts of this game. The Vikings head coach has stated that they intentionally invited the Eagles to run the ball and the light boxes Swift faced will not be a typical match up for the Eagles going forward. So this must be given strong consideration when asking if his performance under these circumstances changes the Eagles plan going forward.
We have 2 data points now. Week one where Swift barely had any opportunity at all and week 2 where Gainwell was out, the defense did not try to stop the run and Swift had 175 yards.
The truth is somewhere more in the middle of these 2 extremes.
It depends on how one defines a clear cut #1 RB for the Eagles.
I think Swift is the most talented RB they have and should score the most fantasy points of their options over the course of the season. I thought this before the season began and said so when another poster asked which Eagle RB would we want to have. He is the only one I was interested in rostering.
That does not mean there wont be some RBBC though. Which would mean Swift is not the ckear cut #1
In the previous thtead some opined that Gainwell was more interesting for them because of being lower ADP. Then what happened week 1 showed that he might be useful to have as well. What happens when he is healthy again?
What Swift was able to do vs the Vikings should not be a clear definition of what lies ahead for Swift and the Eagles. The Vikings were not even playing 3 defensive linemen at many parts of this game. The Vikings head coach has stated that they intentionally invited the Eagles to run the ball and the light boxes Swift faced will not be a typical match up for the Eagles going forward. So this must be given strong consideration when asking if his performance under these circumstances changes the Eagles plan going forward.
We have 2 data points now. Week one where Swift barely had any opportunity at all and week 2 where Gainwell was out, the defense did not try to stop the run and Swift had 175 yards.
The truth is somewhere more in the middle of these 2 extremes.
styleride85
Footballguy
I don't think that's what he's asking. I think it's the percentage chance that he will become the clear leader in touches, which is completely different.
TheWinz
Footballguy
I disagree. Clear leader in touches is technically 1 more touch than any other RB. I doubt Joe is asking if Swift will out-touch Gainwell by a single touch. The question really is, what will the distribution be?
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Last years carry split was as follows:
Miles-259
Scott-54
Gainwell-53
So Sanders got 70% of the RB touches; this jives with the RB distribution going back to Sirriani’s days in Indy. Scott and Gainwell are still here so the variable is Swift in lieu of Sanders.
I’m of the opinion that Swift is a slightly better runner than Miles and a MUCH better receiver. I just don’t see any reason that they would let miles walk, trade for a guy that is better than him, and then give that guy less of a workload.
Week one was a mistake. Everyone sees that. Week two was an outlier as well-Swift is not going to get 28 Carrie’s per game. If he received a similar workload to last year he’d get about 15 per game. I think it’s fair to expect that and that should be enough for him to do damage. Combine with his receiving ability and he should be a top 10 RB for FF purposes
Miles-259
Scott-54
Gainwell-53
So Sanders got 70% of the RB touches; this jives with the RB distribution going back to Sirriani’s days in Indy. Scott and Gainwell are still here so the variable is Swift in lieu of Sanders.
I’m of the opinion that Swift is a slightly better runner than Miles and a MUCH better receiver. I just don’t see any reason that they would let miles walk, trade for a guy that is better than him, and then give that guy less of a workload.
Week one was a mistake. Everyone sees that. Week two was an outlier as well-Swift is not going to get 28 Carrie’s per game. If he received a similar workload to last year he’d get about 15 per game. I think it’s fair to expect that and that should be enough for him to do damage. Combine with his receiving ability and he should be a top 10 RB for FF purposes
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
You can try to explain away the carries all you want. But the fact of the matter is, the Eagles coaches raved about Gainwell in practice all year and he didn't get any carries. Then they gave him carries and liked what he did. Then they gave him more carries and like what he did. Then in the biggest game of the season, they gave him equal carries to Sanders. It's not an outlier, it a building of trust going from no usage, to doing well in practice, to garbage time usage, to usage in big moments, to getting the bell cow usage in week 1. It's right there for you to see.
It's pretty obvious that Swift is the most talented back on the Eagles, but I thought Sanders was more talented than Gainwell and he got his carries eaten into at the end. The Eagles have been using Gainwell with the #1s. The evidence is there for you to see that Gainwell is going to have a part in the gameplan each week. How much is anybody's guess, but I don't see any back on the Eagles getting 70% of the carries this year.
Here's my predictions from the Swift thread:
Swift: 150-175 carries, 50-55 receptions (~40-45% of the carries)
Gainwell: 100-125 carries and 30-35 receptions. (~30-35% of the carries)
Penny: 75-100 carries and 5 receptions (~10-20% of the carries)
Scott: 50 carries and 5 receptions (~10-15% of the carries)
Eagles RBs had 368 carries last year. I'm probably a little high on the Penny usage. I figured he'd be the guy who gets the carries if Swift or Gainwell went down, but he just looks cooked. I would presume Scott would get those carries now, but I feel confident that the Scott/Penny combo will see at least 75 carries (~20% of the work), they are currently on pace for that (77 carries pace). Based on last years RB usage, that that would leave ~290 carries to be split between Swift and Gainwell. If Swift got 55% of that he'd be at ~160 carries which would be a career high. I just don't see anyway that the Eagles relegate Gainwell back to a 50 carry a year pace after they spent so much time working him into the gameplan this offseason.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
I’m not explaining away anything. I’m simply providing context. You keep saying he got more and more Carrie’s. That’s technically true but doesn’t tell the correct story. He got almost no meaningful Carrie’s in any of those games. That’s a fact.
And frankly this years week one game, he did get the bulk of the carries and did nothing with them.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
If you think context is needed for Gainwell's late season surge, then maybe provide some for your statements. A lot of good RBs had average weeks in week 1. Most starters don't play in the preseason and week 1 is the first time a lot of these guys have played in 8 months.
Josh Jacobs week 1: 19 carries, 48 yards
Derrick Henry week 1: 15 carries, 63 yards
Kenneth Walker week 1: 12 carries, 64 yards
The NE rushing defense ranked 6th last season. MIN ranked 20th.
ETA: Also Gainwell went from getting no meaningful carries, to getting as you said "almost no meaningful carries", to getting ALL meaningful carries. See the pattern?
Football Jones
Footballguy
Well-reasoned post, but plans can change. And I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on last season sans Swift.
As far as Swift’s lack of touches in the first game, the most plausible explanation is Gainwell was the starter out of camp & they simply failed to get Swift more touches (I believe Sirianni mentioned something similar). Fast forward to week 3 & we have more data. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if Gainwell started, but Swift is going to get a decent number of touches.
This is going to come down to talent assuming the intangibles are fairly even, which means Swift has a big advantage on paper. The real question for me is how long it takes to get sorted out.
One thing to add here Gainwell might have a rib cartilage injury. That's a slow healing injury which usually requires pain injections to play with, especially the first few weeks. It's the injury Justin Herbert had last season. He did not miss time but had to alter the way he played. It's the injury Kamara had, he missed 2 out of the next 3 games with it. It's likely an injury both players felt the entire season.
If it's not his rib cartilage it's probably a bruised rib and that's a lot faster healing but a normal person needs 4-6 weeks.
Point is not so sure Gainwell will be playing next week and he might need his workload managed for weeks and if it's a cartilage might be suffering from the injury all year to some extent.
If it's not his rib cartilage it's probably a bruised rib and that's a lot faster healing but a normal person needs 4-6 weeks.
Point is not so sure Gainwell will be playing next week and he might need his workload managed for weeks and if it's a cartilage might be suffering from the injury all year to some extent.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I went with ~30%
It’s hard to trust the Eagles, they still have Penny, and Swift might only last a few games.
It’s hard to trust the Eagles, they still have Penny, and Swift might only last a few games.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
I provided each games carry logs and the context in which those carries occurred. How much more context do I need to provide, lol? Again if you think 8 carries in a row at the end of the SF game when CMAC was the Niners QB and we were on to the Super Bowl, is meaningful we can agree to disagree.
And to be clear he got no meaningful carries at the end of the year nor in the playoffs. He got some meaningful carries in the superbowl after miles fumbled his second carry. If you wanna give weight to that be my guest. I obviously don’t.
styleride85
Footballguy
His question literally says "What percent chance Swift becomes the clear cut #1 back"... not sure how you could possibly think he's asking what percentage of touches he will get. He often asks the "what percent chance THIS will happen" questions.
I don't think "clear leader" means 1 more than the next best RB.
@Joe Bryant what did you mean?
Yeah, lots of ways to interpret this. By "now", if we're talking next week, I'd say the odds are very good- Gainwell and Scott are injured and Penny looked like LenDale White so it almost has to be his job by default. If we're talking the rest of the season, I'd say it's a lot lower. Seems like they prefer more of a split, maybe partly to try and keep them healthy for the post season run.
I will say that while Swift looked good, he had 133 yards before contact. The combination of their dominant O-line playing against a putrid defense had a lot to do with it IMO.
I will say that while Swift looked good, he had 133 yards before contact. The combination of their dominant O-line playing against a putrid defense had a lot to do with it IMO.
Gadio
Footballguy
Eagles historically have used RBBC. Eagles are also very analytics-heavy and love to mitigate risks, maximizing output while minimizing the odds of injury. Philly has 2 good RBs and 2 serviceable ones. By past behavior, You should expect some games where Swift is on the bench or Penny/Gainwell stealing meaningful snaps in order to preserve him against injury. The plan here is to always have a good RB without injury which caps the number of snaps of each runner.
On the other hand, if Swift is really leagues better than the competition he will buy himself more pieces of the pie. Philly in this situation will test him along multiple weeks to check if he can be the rb1 without loosing his wheels off.
On the other hand, if Swift is really leagues better than the competition he will buy himself more pieces of the pie. Philly in this situation will test him along multiple weeks to check if he can be the rb1 without loosing his wheels off.
Thanks. Meant exactly what I asked. Lots of people are talking about whether the Eagles backfield will stay unclear or if one RB can emerge as the clear cut #1.
After Thursday's game, lots of people are asking if Swift can be the clear cut #1. So I asked here to see what you folks thought.
Chaka
Footballguy
You're my guy for all info about the Eagles. And I think you are 100% correct telling people to not sleep on the coaches words and actions vis-a-vis Gainwell this off-season. But you keep talking about Gainwell's late season "surge" and I'm at a loss to find it.
He had one good game in a blowout where Sanders also had a big game. He had more carries in another blowout where Sanders was pulled in the early fourth after scoring two TDs. Gainwell got 9 of his opportunities after Sanders was pulled. And he had 4 more opportunities than Sanders in the SB where the passing games took center stage.
That "surge" doesn't even get my ankles wet.
Again, I'm with you on the off-season talk but last year was 100% Sanders from star to finish.
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Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I don't disagree. My contention is that it won't be a 70/30 split like Sirianni backfields have historically had. It will be a more 55/45 split.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
He went from getting no carries at all, to getting carries in garbage time in the playoffs, to getting meaningful carries (in the Superbowl), to getting all the carries in week 1. That's a pretty good surge in 365 days.
Chaka
Footballguy
I guess. But those increased touches seem to have come at the expense of Boston Scott. It's a little difficult to draw conclusions as.the Giants & Niner playoff games were by far their biggest blowouts of the year.
And I think Sanders fumbling on his first carry (and almost fumbling another) may have impacted the way the coaches deployed him in the SB.
But he saw more action in the playoffs and that's a fact. He was also definitely the guy this off-season and week one so Swift owners shouldn't assume he's going away just because of the Minnesota game.
timschochet
Footballguy
The good news is that the Eagles seem to (a) have a very good offensive line and (b) at least early appear to be more committed to the run this year.
That means that whether or not Swift is the clear lead RB or in a more muddled RBBC, he should still be a solid guy to start in FF every week he’s healthy.
That means that whether or not Swift is the clear lead RB or in a more muddled RBBC, he should still be a solid guy to start in FF every week he’s healthy.
