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Unless you start two quarterbacks per week. Then the value at the QB position goes up. Otherwise, I agree.
Yes it does, maybe not as much as some people think, but it does.
Agreed. The 2 QB is a really fine rule for the reason Mr. Smith states...
This, by the way, is my nomination for "biggest fanatsy mistake"
There are exceptions to this rule. Sometimes it is a good move to take a QB in the 2nd round some years (Culpepper).I would much rather have him than any of the over-valued RB's that go in the mid-late 2nd as TGunz pointed out.
2) Thinking your idiosyncratic judgement is superior to the collective judgement of thousands of other experts.
I dropped Santana Moss(after taking him higher than i should have) after his first game. Granted, this was mostly due to the fact Pennington was hurt, than hiso ne bad game. On the bright side, it was for Anquan Boldin.dropping a player after Week 1, if he doesn't blow up in the first game.... happens every year. Unless of course, your dropping someone to pick-up the stud-to-be that someone else dropped!
P.S. Only if i woulda dropped Burress instead of Moss, i may have made the playoffs
And it's not like you know anything significant that they don't.
I dropped Santana Moss(after taking him higher than i should have) after his first game. Granted, this was mostly due to the fact Pennington was hurt, than hiso ne bad game. On the bright side, it was for Anquan Boldin.dropping a player after Week 1, if he doesn't blow up in the first game.... happens every year. Unless of course, your dropping someone to pick-up the stud-to-be that someone else dropped!
P.S. Only if i woulda dropped Burress instead of Moss, i may have made the playoffs S. Moss AND Barlow were both dropped in my keeper league last year. I picked up both during the season and they are both now 2 of my keepers for this yearI dropped Santana Moss(after taking him higher than i should have) after his first game. Granted, this was mostly due to the fact Pennington was hurt, than hiso ne bad game. On the bright side, it was for Anquan Boldin.dropping a player after Week 1, if he doesn't blow up in the first game.... happens every year. Unless of course, your dropping someone to pick-up the stud-to-be that someone else dropped!
3) Assuming his judgement is idiosyncratic4) Assuming the mass of thousands are "experts"
The biggest thing I learn from "the herd" is how to figure out my overrated/underrated list. Of course sometimes they'll be right, sometimes I will, but I at least have a rationale (right or not) backing mine up. I have no idea why any given person in a mass list ranked whoever wherever.I think his point is people BLINDLY following the consensus, ie w/o thinking it thru themselves, which I agree is generally stupid and the fast track to mediocrity.Perhaps I was unclear, Here is what I meant by the 3 vs. 4 vs. 5 point per TD pass issue:A couple of years ago, other people in my main league were catching on to the fact that you could wait on drafting a good QB and still get someone really good. We used 3 points per TD pass. I had seen in a lot of places that people used 4 or 5 points per TD pass, so I decided to see what that would do to my initial draft list, which I created using the VBD Tool from footballguys. I plugged in my league rules, using 3 pts. per TD pass, then did it again using 4 pts. per TD pass. The difference was insignificant. A couple of people moved up, a couple of people moved down.Intrigued, I did it with 5 pts. per TD pass. The same results - guys like Favre and Warner moved up, guys like Culpepper and McNabb moved down. But you ended up with QBs in general in the same overal spots in the rankings.If you really understand the match behind VBD, you can see why this is so. However, it is VERY counter-intuitive, which is why this is a great way to get a sneaky advantage in your league.I got the rule change passed, saw 5 QBs drafted in the first 2 and half rounds, drafted Drew Bledsoe and Trent Green in the 7th and 8th rounds, and never looked back.
To take it to an extreme(as unrealistic as it is) if QB's got 100 points for a TD pass, and all other TD's were still 6 points, Manning would be an easy top 2 pick, and rightfully so. Now if QB's got 1 point per TD pass, with all other TD's still 6 points, i would probably be taking a kicker before Manning. Now i know it is not near that drastic going from 3 to 5 or 4 to 6 points per TD pass, but to say it means nothing based on VBD, or for whatever other reason is wrong, and one of the biggest mistakes one can make.
I did this a few years back myself and was quite surprised at how little difference 6 pt per TD pass made in my overall rankings. Scrambling qbs get devalued relative to pocket passers, but otherwise the difference is tiny. I haven't tried it with this year's VBD app.
Here's what happens if you re-run the numbers for 6 pts per passing TD:
A little different, but not much.
I'll agree with "it's only as valuable as the projections put into it", but where do you get the "even then the way it interprets that information entered into it is far from perfect."??It's a very solid mathematical underpinning for understanding relative value across different positions. It is nothing more, but it is also nothing less
took the words right out of my mouth :XOnly one per poster please. I would have to say basing your rankings on last year's stats. Except for some of the bigger studs at each position, there is a great deal of volatility from year to year but it seems most people can only remember what happened last season.
On the flip-side of that, you could also say it's a mistake to not offer your beer-lovin' league-mates lots of alcohol at the draft, 'cuz you WANT them to make ####### picks en route to your dominating the league.... but that just sounds a little too sneaky to lead with. 
I draft BETTER when im drunk!!!!I can't resist adding a second one: not staying sober during your FFL draft! I've watched some guys make some pretty ####### picks that ruin their next 3-4 months of FFL action because they couldn't lay off the alcohol for 3-4 hours. You can get hammered almost any other day out of the year, but why blow your FFL season (or SEASONS in a dynasty league draft) 'cuz you just gotta have that 4th/5th beer by the 4th round?!
