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What is the SINGLE most important fantasy mistake? (1 Viewer)

Franknbeans

Footballguy
Only one per poster please. I would have to say basing your rankings on last year's stats. Except for some of the bigger studs at each position, there is a great deal of volatility from year to year but it seems most people can only remember what happened last season. ;)

 

joffer

Footballguy
apparently it's passing on Carson Palmer in the 6th round of a survivor draft in favor of someone that might actually help your team.

 

datonn

Footballguy
Preparing your draft cheatsheet in a vacuum without gathering a thorough understanding of your competing owner's current rosters, needs and draft tendencies.If your goal is to just be "good" or competitive, don't bother. If you want to win titles, you gotta do the time to win the dime, at least in competitive "shark" leagues that are worth the time and bragging rights........ :football:

 

Repressed Dennis

Footballguy
Drafting a QB too early. Even seemingly smart players fall down on this one. A corollary - increasing Points per TD thrown from 3 to 4 or 5 - does this make a QB more valuable? No, but people think it does.

 

Chris Smith

The Head Goon!
Drafting a QB too early. Even seemingly smart players fall down on this one. A corollary - increasing Points per TD thrown from 3 to 4 or 5 - does this make a QB more valuable? No, but people think it does.
Unless you start two quarterbacks per week. Then the value at the QB position goes up. Otherwise, I agree.
 
Drafting a QB too early. Even seemingly smart players fall down on this one. A corollary - increasing Points per TD thrown from 3 to 4 or 5 - does this make a QB more valuable? No, but people think it does.
Yes it does, maybe not as much as some people think, but it does.
 

Repressed Dennis

Footballguy
Drafting a QB too early. Even seemingly smart players fall down on this one. A corollary - increasing Points per TD thrown from 3 to 4 or 5 - does this make a QB more valuable? No, but people think it does.
Unless you start two quarterbacks per week. Then the value at the QB position goes up. Otherwise, I agree.
Agreed. The 2 QB is a really fine rule for the reason Mr. Smith states...
 

Butch

Footballguy
Not utilizing Our Lords as a resource for current depth chart can make or break a roster.
Any word from God on who wins the starting RB job for Denver and Oakland this year?TIA
 

EastBayFunk

Footballguy
The biggest mistake is people assuming that a player's production in the coming season will match his production from the previous season. This causes most people to overvalue proven players and to miss out on breakout performers who don't have the track record of success. It also leads to a lot of draft busts as people reach for a player who clearly played above his head the year before.

 
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tommyGunZ

Footballguy
Not placing enough weight on the "gut" factor. At some point, you have to know when common sense > theory or numbers.Over the years I've seen plenty of drafts where extremely intelligent drafters go overboard with their numbers and theories and end up with garbage. At some point, you have to place weight on who you think will actually produce the better numbers when deciding between two players, regardless of what your table tells you.

 

Steelers

Footballguy
I'd have to say the biggest mistake is drafting a player that doesn't live up to billing in the first 2 rounds. The old axiom 'you can't win a league with you first round pick but you sure can lose it' is accurate. The first two rounds are NOT designed for hitting home runs, they are for drafting players from whom you can expect a reasonable degree of dependability & consistency. Taking big swings for the fences after your starting positions (RB, WR, QB) are filled, can win you championships. It's an interesting dichotomy.

 

BigRed

Footballguy
Drafting a QB too early. Even seemingly smart players fall down on this one. A corollary - increasing Points per TD thrown from 3 to 4 or 5 - does this make a QB more valuable? No, but people think it does.
Probably because it does. (?)I'd say the basing on last year's stats thing is the biggest one. The RB stud mania is the other (taken to the extreme that some insist on that is).
 
Drafting a QB too early. Even seemingly smart players fall down on this one. A corollary - increasing Points per TD thrown from 3 to 4 or 5 - does this make a QB more valuable? No, but people think it does.
Yes it does, maybe not as much as some people think, but it does.
This, by the way, is my nomination for "biggest fanatsy mistake"
 

Keith R

The Don
Keeping everything one-dimensional and just picking whoever's next on your sheet as the draft develops.What one should be doing in the middle rounds is drafting based on how the earlier rounds went. Aside from that determining when you draft your QB2, for example, is looking at the type of player you want at QB2, WR3&4, RB3&4, etc. If you're rock solid at the position, go with who gives you great upside, if you're starting an injury risk or potential RBBC casuality, go with someone more stable in case you're forced to rely on him for a six-week span, etc.And watch those bye week matchups for your backups!

 
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tommyGunZ

Footballguy
Drafting a RB in the mid-to-late 2nd round. I think that on average, RB's at this point are overvalued, and often a reach. I'd love to see a study on how often RBs drafted 2.4 to 2.12 are busts. I bet the bust rate is way high.Having your 2nd rounder bust is huge. I usually go WR unless I really have my eyes on someone if I'm drafting in these spots.

 

Spike

Footballguy
Taking non-RB rookies too early.For example, I would imagine that people will be reaching for Fitz/Roy Williams/Reggie Williams too early.

 

nerangers

Footballguy
Not handcuffing players that deserve to be handcuffed.I don't think that everyone's backup will do an exceptional job given the chance, but there are always a few that you know will. If you have them, you should go after the backup if you can get them. You know if one goes down, the other will definitely fit right in.Marshall Faulk and Steven JacksonTravis Henry and Willis Mcgahee

 

VICK-IS-GOD

Footballguy
Drafting a QB too early. Even seemingly smart players fall down on this one. A corollary - increasing Points per TD thrown from 3 to 4 or 5 - does this make a QB more valuable? No, but people think it does.
There are exceptions to this rule. Sometimes it is a good move to take a QB in the 2nd round some years (Culpepper).I would much rather have him than any of the over-valued RB's that go in the mid-late 2nd as TGunz pointed out.
 

EastBayFunk

Footballguy
I definitely think my judgement is better than thousands of experts. Call it arrogance, but it's not as if these people know anything significant that I don't. Why should I listen to them? I have my own eyes and am able to come to my own decisions.

 

Nathan R. Jessep

That Hug Life
dropping a player after Week 1, if he doesn't blow up in the first game.... happens every year. Unless of course, your dropping someone to pick-up the stud-to-be that someone else dropped! :wall:

 
dropping a player after Week 1, if he doesn't blow up in the first game.... happens every year. Unless of course, your dropping someone to pick-up the stud-to-be that someone else dropped! :wall:
I dropped Santana Moss(after taking him higher than i should have) after his first game. Granted, this was mostly due to the fact Pennington was hurt, than hiso ne bad game. On the bright side, it was for Anquan Boldin. :thumbup: P.S. Only if i woulda dropped Burress instead of Moss, i may have made the playoffs :D
 
dropping a player after Week 1, if he doesn't blow up in the first game.... happens every year. Unless of course, your dropping someone to pick-up the stud-to-be that someone else dropped! :wall:
I dropped Santana Moss(after taking him higher than i should have) after his first game. Granted, this was mostly due to the fact Pennington was hurt, than hiso ne bad game. On the bright side, it was for Anquan Boldin. :thumbup: P.S. Only if i woulda dropped Burress instead of Moss, i may have made the playoffs :D
 

Tick

Footballguy
Overvaluing QBs. I think there are a lot of other mistakes made, but this one seems to be the biggest to me.

 

-OZ-

Footballguy
Placing too much emphasis on youth, especially in redrafts.Everyone wants the next big thing, which is understandable, more so in dynasty drafts, but the mistake is made in redrafts a lot too.

 

PhinsFan

Footballguy
dropping a player after Week 1, if he doesn't blow up in the first game.... happens every year. Unless of course, your dropping someone to pick-up the stud-to-be that someone else dropped! :wall:
I dropped Santana Moss(after taking him higher than i should have) after his first game. Granted, this was mostly due to the fact Pennington was hurt, than hiso ne bad game. On the bright side, it was for Anquan Boldin. :thumbup: P.S. Only if i woulda dropped Burress instead of Moss, i may have made the playoffs :D
S. Moss AND Barlow were both dropped in my keeper league last year. I picked up both during the season and they are both now 2 of my keepers for this year :excited:
 

BigRed

Footballguy
1) Using Consensus Rankings as cheatsheets
2) Thinking your idiosyncratic judgement is superior to the collective judgement of thousands of other experts.
3) Assuming his judgement is idiosyncratic4) Assuming the mass of thousands are "experts";) The biggest thing I learn from "the herd" is how to figure out my overrated/underrated list. Of course sometimes they'll be right, sometimes I will, but I at least have a rationale (right or not) backing mine up. I have no idea why any given person in a mass list ranked whoever wherever.I think his point is people BLINDLY following the consensus, ie w/o thinking it thru themselves, which I agree is generally stupid and the fast track to mediocrity.
 

Repressed Dennis

Footballguy
Drafting a QB too early.  Even seemingly smart players fall down on this one.  A corollary - increasing Points per TD thrown from 3 to 4 or 5 - does this make a QB more valuable?  No, but people think it does.
Yes it does, maybe not as much as some people think, but it does.
This, by the way, is my nomination for "biggest fanatsy mistake"
Perhaps I was unclear, Here is what I meant by the 3 vs. 4 vs. 5 point per TD pass issue:A couple of years ago, other people in my main league were catching on to the fact that you could wait on drafting a good QB and still get someone really good. We used 3 points per TD pass. I had seen in a lot of places that people used 4 or 5 points per TD pass, so I decided to see what that would do to my initial draft list, which I created using the VBD Tool from footballguys. I plugged in my league rules, using 3 pts. per TD pass, then did it again using 4 pts. per TD pass. The difference was insignificant. A couple of people moved up, a couple of people moved down.Intrigued, I did it with 5 pts. per TD pass. The same results - guys like Favre and Warner moved up, guys like Culpepper and McNabb moved down. But you ended up with QBs in general in the same overal spots in the rankings.If you really understand the match behind VBD, you can see why this is so. However, it is VERY counter-intuitive, which is why this is a great way to get a sneaky advantage in your league.I got the rule change passed, saw 5 QBs drafted in the first 2 and half rounds, drafted Drew Bledsoe and Trent Green in the 7th and 8th rounds, and never looked back.
 

KTM

Braaaaaaaaaap
Making too many trades during the year. Some of the best trades are the ones that you don't make!
Right on! It's too easy to get caught up in the hype of trades and always wanting to improve. Where do you draw the line? It's a very fine line IMO...
 

S.K.A.

Trout Bum
From Fantasy Football 380 manual, it reads:

FFer's typically overvalue rookies and undervalue veterans. Coaches don't.

*bold added by poster for emphasis.

 
Drafting a QB too early.  Even seemingly smart players fall down on this one.  A corollary - increasing Points per TD thrown from 3 to 4 or 5 - does this make a QB more valuable?  No, but people think it does.
Yes it does, maybe not as much as some people think, but it does.
This, by the way, is my nomination for "biggest fanatsy mistake"
Perhaps I was unclear, Here is what I meant by the 3 vs. 4 vs. 5 point per TD pass issue:A couple of years ago, other people in my main league were catching on to the fact that you could wait on drafting a good QB and still get someone really good. We used 3 points per TD pass. I had seen in a lot of places that people used 4 or 5 points per TD pass, so I decided to see what that would do to my initial draft list, which I created using the VBD Tool from footballguys. I plugged in my league rules, using 3 pts. per TD pass, then did it again using 4 pts. per TD pass. The difference was insignificant. A couple of people moved up, a couple of people moved down.Intrigued, I did it with 5 pts. per TD pass. The same results - guys like Favre and Warner moved up, guys like Culpepper and McNabb moved down. But you ended up with QBs in general in the same overal spots in the rankings.If you really understand the match behind VBD, you can see why this is so. However, it is VERY counter-intuitive, which is why this is a great way to get a sneaky advantage in your league.I got the rule change passed, saw 5 QBs drafted in the first 2 and half rounds, drafted Drew Bledsoe and Trent Green in the 7th and 8th rounds, and never looked back.
To take it to an extreme(as unrealistic as it is) if QB's got 100 points for a TD pass, and all other TD's were still 6 points, Manning would be an easy top 2 pick, and rightfully so. Now if QB's got 1 point per TD pass, with all other TD's still 6 points, i would probably be taking a kicker before Manning. Now i know it is not near that drastic going from 3 to 5 or 4 to 6 points per TD pass, but to say it means nothing based on VBD, or for whatever other reason is wrong, and one of the biggest mistakes one can make.
 

caul

Footballguy
Simple, the biggest mistake I see alot of people around here making are kind of a combination of two things (I know, one per poster plz). Its short memory spans , only looking at one or two years of data, most good players career's last very long times and a year or two can be very deceptive if all your doing is looking at stats. Which brings me to the next point, only looking at stats. Fact is to try and predict trends you need to know more then stats. You need to know what creates the stats, and ya, its really tough to watch every game, but geting direct ticket and watching as much as possible (you really need at least 2 tv's next to each other) is the only real way to see how all the players really play. I see too many posters go on only the past 1-2 years of data, instead of the 5 years of a career of a player and how they actually played, no matter what situation they were put in.

 

IvanKaramazov

Footballguy
Drafting a QB too early.  Even seemingly smart players fall down on this one.  A corollary - increasing Points per TD thrown from 3 to 4 or 5 - does this make a QB more valuable?  No, but people think it does.
Yes it does, maybe not as much as some people think, but it does.
This, by the way, is my nomination for "biggest fanatsy mistake"
Perhaps I was unclear, Here is what I meant by the 3 vs. 4 vs. 5 point per TD pass issue:A couple of years ago, other people in my main league were catching on to the fact that you could wait on drafting a good QB and still get someone really good. We used 3 points per TD pass. I had seen in a lot of places that people used 4 or 5 points per TD pass, so I decided to see what that would do to my initial draft list, which I created using the VBD Tool from footballguys. I plugged in my league rules, using 3 pts. per TD pass, then did it again using 4 pts. per TD pass. The difference was insignificant. A couple of people moved up, a couple of people moved down.Intrigued, I did it with 5 pts. per TD pass. The same results - guys like Favre and Warner moved up, guys like Culpepper and McNabb moved down. But you ended up with QBs in general in the same overal spots in the rankings.If you really understand the match behind VBD, you can see why this is so. However, it is VERY counter-intuitive, which is why this is a great way to get a sneaky advantage in your league.I got the rule change passed, saw 5 QBs drafted in the first 2 and half rounds, drafted Drew Bledsoe and Trent Green in the 7th and 8th rounds, and never looked back.
:goodposting: I did this a few years back myself and was quite surprised at how little difference 6 pt per TD pass made in my overall rankings. Scrambling qbs get devalued relative to pocket passers, but otherwise the difference is tiny. I haven't tried it with this year's VBD app.
 

VICK-IS-GOD

Footballguy
The biggest mistake on this board is using the VBD tool and not realizing it is just a tool and not perfect.It is only as valuable as the projections put in it, and even then the way it interprets that information entered into it is far from perfect.It is a toy, it cracks me up to see people using it and being so confident in the results it spits out.Not many people who have been doing FF for a long time and have a solid understanding of what they are doing rely on the results it spews out. There is a reason for that. It is a toy, nothing more. Use it accordingly.

 

IvanKaramazov

Footballguy
To back up RD's point, here are the top 36 players using FBG projections, 1/2/3/1/1/1 rosters, 12 teams, and "standard" scoring (4 pt per passing TD):

1 Priest Holmes KC/5 RB 1742 LaDainian Tomlinson SD/10 RB 1643 Deuce McAllister NO/8 RB 1344 Clinton Portis Was/7 RB 1185 Randy Moss Min/4 WR 1086 Ahman Green GB/9 RB 1047 Edgerrin James Ind/6 RB 1048 Shaun Alexander Sea/4 RB 1019 Jamal Lewis Bal/6 RB 9610 Ricky Williams Mia/10 RB 9311 Marvin Harrison Ind/6 WR 9212 Torry Holt StL/8 WR 9113 Kevan Barlow SF/7 RB 8114 Daunte Culpepper Min/4 QB 7715 Fred Taylor Jac/9 RB 6716 Chad Johnson Cin/5 WR 6717 Terrell Owens Phi/5 WR 6518 Hines Ward Pit/7 WR 6419 Laveranues Coles Was/7 WR 6220 Marshall Faulk StL/8 RB 5921 Travis Henry Buf/3 RB 5722 Tiki Barber NYG/6 RB 5523 Tony Gonzalez KC/5 TE 5124 Corey Dillon NE/3 RB 5125 Peyton Manning Ind/6 QB 4826 Derrick Mason Ten/9 WR 4827 Stephen Davis Car/3 RB 4728 Steve Smith Car/3 WR 4629 Curtis Martin NYJ/3 RB 4430 Domanick Davis Hou/7 RB 4431 Rudi Johnson Cin/5 RB 4332 Santana Moss NYJ/3 WR 4333 Anquan Boldin Ari/6 WR 4234 Duce Staley Pit/7 RB 3935 Darrell Jackson Sea/4 WR 3736 Koren Robinson Sea/4 WR 36
Here's what happens if you re-run the numbers for 6 pts per passing TD:
1 Priest Holmes KC/5 RB 1742 LaDainian Tomlinson SD/10 RB 1643 Deuce McAllister NO/8 RB 1344 Clinton Portis Was/7 RB 1185 Randy Moss Min/4 WR 1086 Ahman Green GB/9 RB 1047 Edgerrin James Ind/6 RB 1048 Shaun Alexander Sea/4 RB 1019 Jamal Lewis Bal/6 RB 9610 Ricky Williams Mia/10 RB 9311 Marvin Harrison Ind/6 WR 9212 Torry Holt StL/8 WR 9113 Daunte Culpepper Min/4 QB 8914 Kevan Barlow SF/7 RB 8115 Fred Taylor Jac/9 RB 6716 Chad Johnson Cin/5 WR 6717 Terrell Owens Phi/5 WR 6518 Peyton Manning Ind/6 QB 6519 Hines Ward Pit/7 WR 6420 Laveranues Coles Was/7 WR 6221 Marshall Faulk StL/8 RB 5922 Travis Henry Buf/3 RB 5723 Tiki Barber NYG/6 RB 5524 Tony Gonzalez KC/5 TE 5125 Corey Dillon NE/3 RB 5126 Derrick Mason Ten/9 WR 4827 Stephen Davis Car/3 RB 4728 Steve Smith Car/3 WR 4629 Curtis Martin NYJ/3 RB 4430 Domanick Davis Hou/7 RB 4431 Rudi Johnson Cin/5 RB 4332 Santana Moss NYJ/3 WR 4333 Anquan Boldin Ari/6 WR 4234 Duce Staley Pit/7 RB 3935 Darrell Jackson Sea/4 WR 3736 Koren Robinson Sea/4 WR 36
A little different, but not much.
 

Repressed Dennis

Footballguy
The biggest mistake on this board is using the VBD tool and not realizing it is just a tool and not perfect.It is only as valuable as the projections put in it, and even then the way it interprets that information entered into it is far from perfect.It is a toy, it cracks me up to see people using it and being so confident in the results it spits out.Not many people who have been doing FF for a long time and have a solid understanding of what they are doing rely on the results it spews out. There is a reason for that. It is a toy, nothing more. Use it accordingly.
I'll agree with "it's only as valuable as the projections put into it", but where do you get the "even then the way it interprets that information entered into it is far from perfect."??It's a very solid mathematical underpinning for understanding relative value across different positions. It is nothing more, but it is also nothing less
 

ko-jack

Footballguy
Only one per poster please. I would have to say basing your rankings on last year's stats. Except for some of the bigger studs at each position, there is a great deal of volatility from year to year but it seems most people can only remember what happened last season. ;)
took the words right out of my mouth :X
 

Family Matters

Footballguy
Here are several things that are common mistakes. Some have already been posted but often all of these mistakes are made by the same owners year after year.

1. QB too early. Most leagues start 1. Unless you start 2 it is advised to wait after the RB/WR starters have been darfted. Maybe even TE. Let someone else do you a favor by drafting QB's too ealrly.

2. Drafting a QB named Vick, McNabb or Cpep in the first 3 rounds because they run alot. You cannot assume they will run alot next year. In fact, we've seen they tend to get injured more often when doing so.

3. Failing to prepare for each round of the draft. Anyone can draft 2-3 rounds without thinking much. Many owners are lazy and will not take the time to lay out a strategy that covers each round. Owners that do avoid depth problems and find tremendous value in the later rounds.

4. Chasing the winners. A common error is assuming that a player that had a carreer year last year will perform at the same level next year. Most often their performance drops to some degree. They may still do well but some owners will draft them way to early because of last years performance rather than what is realistic this year.

5. This one not as a mistake as it is smart to do. Especially if take FF seriously. Use Footballguys! They help you find your way through the questions you don't have the time or desire to do yourself. Face it, these guys do this for a living. They have demonstrated a track record of excellence and know what they are talking about. Their collective excellence is by far greater than mine and most on this board. I'm not trying suck up here just stating the obvious. Also, the members on this board need a mention. They are a big part of why I recommend FBG. The knowledge and experience they bring are second to none. I've gotten to know a few of them and appreciate their FF knowledge. Thanks guys!

 
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datonn

Footballguy
I can't resist adding a second one: not staying sober during your FFL draft! I've watched some guys make some pretty ####### picks that ruin their next 3-4 months of FFL action because they couldn't lay off the alcohol for 3-4 hours. You can get hammered almost any other day out of the year, but why blow your FFL season (or SEASONS in a dynasty league draft) 'cuz you just gotta have that 4th/5th beer by the 4th round?! :no: On the flip-side of that, you could also say it's a mistake to not offer your beer-lovin' league-mates lots of alcohol at the draft, 'cuz you WANT them to make ####### picks en route to your dominating the league.... but that just sounds a little too sneaky to lead with. :devil:

 
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I can't resist adding a second one: not staying sober during your FFL draft! I've watched some guys make some pretty ####### picks that ruin their next 3-4 months of FFL action because they couldn't lay off the alcohol for 3-4 hours. You can get hammered almost any other day out of the year, but why blow your FFL season (or SEASONS in a dynasty league draft) 'cuz you just gotta have that 4th/5th beer by the 4th round?! :no: On the flip-side of that, you could also say it's a mistake to not offer your beer-lovin' league-mates lots of alcohol at the draft, 'cuz you WANT them to make ####### picks en route to your dominating the league.... but that just sounds a little too sneaky to lead with. :devil:
I draft BETTER when im drunk!!!! :D
 

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