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What ONE THING did you learn this season (1 Viewer)

That WRs who are under 5-10 can play. To those who know football history this is a serious anomoly. Edit: In the last 10 or so years. 2 of the biggest sleepers:Santana Moss & Steve Smith are under 5-10. Usually you are destined to be a #2 WR. Maybe they should be anyways and next year they will be #2s again. But this year they were #1s. I discounted their performences early and missed out on them. I assumed it would be Conway and Muhammed.

 
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stud rb is the way to go and overstock them, they are more valuable on my bench then on someone else's team. :thumbup: the jury is still out on drafting a te high (shockey) :wall: wait on qbs :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:

That WRs who are under 5-10 can play. To those who know football history this is a serious anomoly.
this really suprised me and i passed on them time after time :wall:
 
I learned that a lot of people look for Set in Stone "Rules" when every situation is different and that I can take advantage by being flexible and understanding the situation and the REAL value.For example....Maybe we should also say:Wr's who change teams and lose their QB Struggle.. (Price, Conway)Or.. Wr's who change teams and go to a team a struggling team with a bad OL and QB Struggle (Coles)Coles didn't struggle as much as the whole Skins offense.. So.. When Terrel Owens changes teams... PLEASE let him slip to the 3rd round cuz as we all know "Wrs who change teams struggle" It's the LAW.
I was to lazy to qualify my statement...but regardless of the circumstances they all struggled.
 
I've become a minimal WR theorist.Every year it seems my high pick WRs bust while my late picks and waiver claims flourish. Now if I stop spending high picks on WRs and either accumulate ungodly QB and RB depth, or trade up to get studs, I'll be all set.
Glad to see another Convert! :thumbup:
 
I've learned absolutely nothing because I'll make the same damn mistakes next year.I don't hold grudges, but I perceive players a certain way, and it often comes back to get me.
Preach on Brother Man.My angle on this is that since I am such a College/NFL draft beatnik, I always Chase the young talent thinking that the older Pro is on his way out.Barlow has been my own personal demon for the last two years now. I always seem to get caught up in the young guy after I have scouted him, and I think he is going to replace the old guard. In the IBL League that we are in, I grabbed Barlow in the 5th or 6th round, MT snagged Hearst in the 10th. That's haunted me all year.Over the years, I have given up on Hearst, Bruce, Kelly, Garcia, just to name a few that I thought were passed their prime, who went on to have great seasons just to spite me.
 
Lesson I learned: Don't take a TE early any more.

Little voice in my head: It's ok if it's Gonzo.

Lesson I learned: No! I won't do it any more!

Little voice in my head: It was your 2nd and 3rd round picks that sucked, not Gonzo in the fourth.

Lesson I learned: Aaarrrrrgggghhhh!!!!
I learned the Lesson the hard way as well this year.In 15 years of playing Fantasy Football, I never tried it before this year, but year after year, "experts" continue to make pretty logical arguments that if you are in a league that starts a TE, go out and get a great one early to distance yourself from the pack in that position.

Always seemed to make alittle sense, but i never brought myself to do it until this season.

I WILL NEVER AGAIN MAKE THIS MISTAKE!

Just get some serviceable TE in the Draft, and work the Waiver Wire from there.

 
draft a team....and walk away from the computer. i have traded away a championship team with idle time to kill in front of my league website. if i had my original team that i drafted and not the one i have currently, i'd be the front runner, not an also ran.

 
Hindsight is 20/20.....it is much easier to make a case in point after the fact, that way we are all genius's :yes: I don't know how many times I heard someone, a friend or foe, admit after the fact that he/she was thinking this or that and should've done this or that.....that's what I learned the most.The truth is it's not easy and takes a ton of commitment to stay on top of trends and hopefully realize what is more than a one week wonder :yes: also to pick that special player that no one else seems glamored to.....and that luck represents a significant portion.Every move you make you are trying to increase your odds.....sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't!

 
AFter 15 years, its two thing:1. I will always draft my studs and ride them. Love coming here and seeing all the talk of this guy or that, but my team (see below) was set on draft day, and been lucky with solid WR breakouts and no real injuries.Need no injuries, b/c no depth. In an auction league with 8/12 sharks, its tough. I have drafted all types of teams and never seen a formula. My team this year was very strong on WR, by chance, which I needed with only Portis.2. All that said, went 14-0 with top score for league. Top scoring speaks to point 1, while 14-0 speaks to point 2 - LUCK, LUCK LUCK!!!

 
I still haven't learned from my mistakes. Every year I am so slow to recognize the trends. For example lets say I draft KRob pretty high in one league. About half way through the season someone offers me a guy like McCardell for him. McCardell is off to a fast start. But I burned a 4th rounder on KRob, he got McCardell in the 11th. I'm still thinking KRob will turn it around. No deal. Doh!I'm also vulnerable to the opposite. Let's say I get a QB like McNair or Hasslebeck in the mid to late rounds. My QB starts out fast. If someone offers me a guy who was highly rated who starts slow, like McNabb and I would probably take it. :wacko: The guys who do the best year after year seem to be the guys who recognize the new trends the quickest, either that or they are just really lucky. ;)

 
Don't ignore the waiver wire just because you're in 1st place. :wall: This owner went from a 7-1 lock to make the playoffs to an 8-6 5th place snub from the championship bracket because he thought he was in cruise control. What a nightmare. :no:

 
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1.The playoffs are a crapshoot. All you can do is get your team to the post-season and hope for the best. But looking at week 14-16 matchups can at least make you feel a little less anxious come playoff time.2. Young fast RBs are preferable to bangers because they can score from anywhere. 3. There is ALWAYS at least 1 Top 12 QB you can find on the waiver wire. There is usually 1 Top-5 QB that can be had after round 10.4. Trading a decent RB2 for a WR1 can be done. Sometimes, a bad RB2 can be traded for a WR1. But trying to trade the other direction is like putting the toothpaste back in the the tube.5. Defenses with great coaches (Ravens, Cowboys, Pats) are better picks then defenses with great players.6. TEBC is the way to go. One injury to say, Jeremy Shockey at the end of the year, can undo all the good your inseason trading did. :wall: 7. Eddie George still isn't finished. :rotflmao: HERD
I ditto all of these... maybe not George. Great defensive coaches usually have their teams jelled in the second half of the season and they begin to score points. I made the mistake of drafting TE in the 4th round. I usually grab one late, but Shockey was there and I went for him. Lot of good he is doing me now. Playoffs are definitely a crap shoot. I beat this guy like a drum in both reg season meetings, and he wins in first round in playoffs because Garcia posts ungodly numbers. Having Portis on his team didn't hurt in week 14 either. One piece of advice I have regarding trading. If all things are equal and it's a close trade, look to weeks 14-16 at the schedules and let that be the deciding factor. It's not hard to reach the playoffs, but getting favorable matchups in late december usually are huge. (i.e. New England defense in the snow of december!)I have the option of Manning and Hasselbeck in week 15 and 16. Manning vs Atlanta in 15, and Hasselbeck vs Arizona in week 16 (at home where they actually play well). :thumbup:
 
Lesson I learned: Don't take a TE early any more.

Little voice in my head: It's ok if it's Gonzo.

Lesson I learned: No! I won't do it any more!

Little voice in my head: It was your 2nd and 3rd round picks that sucked, not Gonzo in the fourth.

Lesson I learned: Aaarrrrrgggghhhh!!!!
I learned the Lesson the hard way as well this year.In 15 years of playing Fantasy Football, I never tried it before this year, but year after year, "experts" continue to make pretty logical arguments that if you are in a league that starts a TE, go out and get a great one early to distance yourself from the pack in that position.

Always seemed to make alittle sense, but i never brought myself to do it until this season.

I WILL NEVER AGAIN MAKE THIS MISTAKE!

Just get some serviceable TE in the Draft, and work the Waiver Wire from there.
I couldn't agree more Mungo and Druggie but let me put a bit of spin on this.If you ascribe to Drugrunners minimalist WR theory you probobly wont be taking any WRs in the 1st 3-6 rounds. So VBD may dictate taking a TE before you take your WR #1.

A team in one of my leagues did this drafting RB RB RB GONZO QB then I forget but he is 14-0 top seed in the playoffs.

Now I didn't take a TE until about round 20 and still ended up with Becht (prior Pennington injury)

So I do think that taking a TE early is not worth doing unless you are ignoring WRs when you draft. If you do this by the time you do start looking at WRs there are TEs who need to be considered then as well.

This season I learned I need more time to develop my teams than I have been able to invest in them but my initial drafts were still good enough to get me in the playoffs.

Trading McNabb for McNair helped too. 2 weeks and I cut bait with McNabb. He has turned it around and then McNair got injured but I am still glad I made the move.

 
I learned to always read Grid's posts, just to see the Avatar. I miss the penguin slap. :thumbup:
I modified the avatar over the weekend (to a VERY popular response), and then the friggin' penguin was nowhere to be found.http://www.isoc.net/cid/cbfans/megabbs2/pr...=66&type=avatarAnd my two favorite (although Joe Inc. frowns upon their use as avatars here):http://www.deep-progress.com/~curt/googoo.gifhttp://www.isoc.net/cid/cbfans/megabbs2/pr...=43&type=avatarThat drillrod Urlacher looks good next to the can of soup that jinxed his ####.
 
Gosh, a lot of the things in this thread could be topics all by themselves.Couple of points:1. You don't have to have a perfect draft to win games. My 4th, 5th and 6th round picks contributed very little to my team, but my 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 7th all outperformed their draft positions2. I use Drugrunner's Minimal WR theory in all my leagues but I guess it depends on how you implement it. I don't use it to pick WRs in a particular round rather I use it to only select WRs who are proven commodities. I then stock the rest of my roster with tradeable RBs and QBs. One thing I have noticed, though is that a lot of trading is done with young WRs as a commodity. It doesn't hurt to have a couple on your roster to entice those owners who LOVE them.

 
Some of this is similar, but had to post. I am in a big keeper league where we can keep 3 each year, so some of this might be jaded that way -1. WRs are tough to depend on overall. Moss, Harrison, Holt, Ward (mostly), Chad Johnson and TO (he is losing some consistency) are about the surest you get and even that isn't always great. Right now going into 2004 - Harrison and Holt are really the most dependable (based on 2003 type performances). 2. Drafting or trading based on schedule is a little overrated. Duece Mcallister had a great year against a schedule that was supposed to be super tough. For example, Philly looked tough v. the run, but wasn't. Granted, Duece got stuffed this past weekend v. TB, but he had had great success v. TB before. But, Shaun Alexander is another one who looked great on paper v. Minn, but it didn't happen. I think you have to get the best players and roll with it. That includes overthinking trades to get guys with great "playoff" schedules3. In a big league, you have to act quick and often on the waiver wire. I looked at Dominick Davis for a bit before someone else got him. I learned its better to leap and then cut later if the guy is a dud than waiting to see if he is for real.4. Luck gets HUGE during the playoffs. During the regular season, good teams usually prevail over the course of the year. BUT, playoffs are one and done in our league and if you underperform, you can be out!!

 
You win with RB studs...

If you are going to be weak anywhere coming out of the draft, let it be in your WR corps, as you can always find good value early in the year on the WW...
I RE-learned that these are the two most overhyped concepts in FF. As for the RB thing, those who bypassed guys like Moss, Manning etc for studs like Garner, Slick Willie Green and the like know the how overrated the first one can be. For the 2d, sure you CAN find a good WR later, but your odds are smaller than the concept claims. Calico, Ant. Bryant, Ferguson, Streets etc etc…a few among many possible FA WRs that many people picked up thinking such a strat. would pay off, and ending up weak in the WR dept.And I also am more willing to wait on a QB, after years of believing in grabbing one of the “studs” early.
I have to disagree, I don't think its overhyped at all. Looking at my leagues top 10s at wr and rb (performance scoring with 1 pt for every rec) I notice this:Wrs Drafted

Moss 2

Holt 4

Boldin WW

C Johnson 6

Ward 2

Harrison 1

Owens 2

McCardell WW

S Moss WW

Mason 6

3 of the top 10 (33%) of our wrs at the end of the season were early waiver wire acquisitions. 5 of the 10 (50%) were picked in Rounds 4 or lower. So you had an even shot of getting a late round/waiver wire gem as you did getting an early stud.

Now look at our top 10 in rbs

rbs Drafted

Holmes 1

LT2 1

A Green 2

Portis 1

Deuce 1

Lewis 1

SA 1

F Taylor 2

R Williams 1

Moe Williams 12

Out of 10 only 1 was a late round/waiver wire gem. And 7 of the 10 were 1st round picks. Green easily could have also been a first rounder thus increasing the stats but that was the owner that took Harrison first.

So I would say looking at these end of the season numbers at least in my leagues circumstances an owner has a much better chance of hitting a top 10 wr later on in the draft or from the waiver wire than you do with a rb. The top 10 for rbs is dominated by the "studs"

I know every league is different but I would be shocked to see numbers widely skewed from this.
I think RB's are way overdrafted. Boldin I understand but Moss and McCardell should not have been waiver wire guys. Obvious 2nd and 3rd string backs are analyzed and overanalyzed and picked well before starting WR's on decent teams. RB's are way overemphasized and overhyped.

If you start 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1K/1D then you need quality production at 5 or 6 of those positions. It doesn't matter which ones. If you're studly at QB,2 WR, TE and D then your RB's can suck, you're covered.

2 Stud RB's is not a guarantee. Conventional wisdom seems to be that RB = Guaranteed Production. Nine teams on No Mercy - Great White went RB-RB, 7 did not make the playoffs.

How many guys would go back and draft Manning and Moss instead of the RB's they took?

 
Free agent to be's don't necessarily mean that they will over perform expectations -->>> T.O.Other good ones above that I really agree with: 1. Stud RB theory.2. Draft that 1st QB even later than you planned.3. Target TEs ranked 4-8 in rounds that are 6 to 7 later than the top 3 go in.4. After the draft (assuming a 16 player roster), only have 2 QBs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D with 4-5 RBs and 6-7 WRs if there are not any significant transactions costs.5. You do become a better drafter by mocking ------>>> Just use your own projections and take ADPs with a grain of salt because if you're just following the herd, mocking is pointless.

 
I think RB's are way overdrafted. Boldin I understand but Moss and McCardell should not have been waiver wire guys.

Obvious 2nd and 3rd string backs are analyzed and overanalyzed and picked well before starting WR's on decent teams. RB's are way overemphasized and overhyped.

If you start 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1K/1D then you need quality production at 5 or 6 of those positions. It doesn't matter which ones. If you're studly at QB,2 WR, TE and D then your RB's can suck, you're covered.

2 Stud RB's is not a guarantee. Conventional wisdom seems to be that RB = Guaranteed Production. Nine teams on No Mercy - Great White went RB-RB, 7 did not make the playoffs.

How many guys would go back and draft Manning and Moss instead of the RB's they took?
I don't think I was trying to guarantee anything by saying if you draft this combo you will win. I think anyone who has played ff knows that isn't true.What I was trying to prove is that there is a higher correlation between taking a stud rb and getting stud numbers from him. 7 of the top 10 were taken in the first round. Its a lot harder with rbs to find that breakthrough guy that will produce top 10 numbers at the price of a low draft pick or a waiver move. You may find week to week replacements such as Rudi Johnson or Marcell Shipp, guys who will have a couple of big games but not guys you can plug in and start the whole season.

Wrs I think its much easier. Whether you think Moss and McCardell should have been on the ww is irrelavant. Our leagues are different. I play in a 10 team league, I am sure in larger leagues they weren't available. Does it really change my point if they were taken in the later rounds of the draft vs on the ww? Not really. Still only 5 of the top 10 were taken in the 4th round or higher. You still have a 50-50 chance to get a top 10 wr after the 5th round. Can you say your chances are that high with rbs? Not even close. You are still getting top numbers from a guy who wasn't expected to. The chance of this happening with wrs is greater than with rbs. If you have data to prove anything to the contrary I would love to see it.

I think there was a preseason article about this but the turnover for top wrs is greater than for rbs so your chance of using high pick on a wr (usally outside the big 3) is riskier. Here are the names of the guys that went after the big 3 - Krob, Toomer, Burress, Moulds, Horn, Coles, Chad Johnson. How many of those guys had sub-par seasons?

Also the rb position typically has the largest disparity in points scored between the top 10 also. In our scoring system the top rb scored 360 points, #10 scored 224 for a difference of 136 points or 10.46 points per week during a normal 13 week season.

Say I used a high pick on Manning intead of a rb. What would my difference have been? Manning was our highest scoring qb at 336 but the 10th qb scored 262 - only a difference of 74 points or 5.69 points per week.

These are the things I have picked up for fantasy rules based on my leagues scoring system.

Grab top rbs (this year I went rb-rb-rb)

then go wrs

wait on a qb and try to go qbbc

will it work for everyone? no, of course not because head-to-head matchups throw things off, you could score a lot of points and still lose games. But I think this combination gives you the best chance to maximize your scoring potential.

 
I agree each league is different. I think RB's are overemphasized to the point where guys are picking marginal RB's late in the 2nd round when the value picks are not at the RB position. There's something wrong when someone could draft say LT2, Fred Taylor then take Randy Moss. Having 1st pick starts to have a huge advantage when you can draft the best RB and the best WR. Guys picking 6-7 or so are panicking and taking RB's and getting poor value. You can wait for the WR's because everyone is waiting, not because it's a good idea. An excellent metagame decision IMO. I have no problem with doing it. I guess I'm just trying to tell the other owners in your league to not let you get away with it anymore. Taking the 22nd RB late in round 2 is not better than a Top 3 WR. It's not. I don't think you can beat conventional wisdom by using conventional wisdom. You beat them by not joining them and by knowing what theyll do. To sum up: Don't draft mediocre RB's when Top WR's are on the board because you're afraid you won't "get one".

 
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I learned never listen to the reporters when they say that Ahman will loose carries and Fred Tayor will do great, which causes you to draft Taylor as your #2 instead of Green. :wall:

 
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I've learned absolutely nothing because I'll make the same damn mistakes next year.I don't hold grudges, but I perceive players a certain way, and it often comes back to get me.
My perception of a player changes too slooooowly; I'm stubborn that way. So by the time my perception is in line with a player's actual value, it's too late to do anything about it. I either own the untradeable dud or I failed to get the stud in the making when he was cheap.
 
I'm on board with the rb emphasis and the shotgun blast approach to receivers. This is not to say I'd pass up Marvin Harrison to draft the #15 rb left on the board, you have to take value where it's given. But it's simply a numbers game. There aren't enough viable running backs to go around, while there are plenty of viable receivers. It's that simple. You soak up enough of the left overs in the second half of the draft and you're usually going to come up with at least a Steve Smith, Peter Warrick or two. Beyond that outside the top three or four receivers are very inconsistent especially in the touchdown department (anyone else remember Marc Boerighter?). Once the useful running backs are gone, they're gone. You get one Domanick Davis a year - the rest of the time you're chasing down a dream with clowns like Olandis Gary. Meanwhile Marucs Robinson is just sitting there waiting to blow up for a couple of weeks.......Don't swing for the fences in your first four rounds or so. Too many times I find myself taking unecessary risks too early, costing myself opportunities to take more soid players. There are plenty of cliches about it, but the bottom line is it's tough to recover from a bad early portion of the draft, even given a season's worth of waiver wire activity.Never trust anything out of any coaches' mouth. Watch the games, check the stats and figure it out for yourself - coaches have absolutely zero interest in presenting the truth about their plans and the state of their teams. I bought into Bill Parcell's preseason gushing over Antonio Bryant, he cost me a sixth or seventh round pick in just about every league I was in. I now realize what he was really doing was indirectly giving his actual starters Glenn and Galoway plenty of motivation to perform. There are plenty of other examples of this kind of stuff. Never again.

 
No matter how great you think your team is, there's usually room for improvement.It takes more than stud RBs to go all the way. I have Portis, Deuce and Henry (keeper league) and barely squeaked into the playoffs before getting booted last week. :(

 
Don't pay for FF advice. This is the first year I haven't paid for anything, and it has been my most successful season ever. Finally realized that I have a brain, and mustered up the resolve to make and stand by my own decisions!

 
I learned that if you like sex, don't buy your wife a toaster for her birthday. And I learned about Wisers, the full flavored whiskey.Sorry couldn't resist.I learned to target players who have high yardage, low TD totals because the TDs will come .... I will never undervalue a Torry Holt again.

 
For me in my dynasty league:Just because you drafted a young talented prospect RB (Tony Hollings) early in the rookie draft and felt he would be the man in 2004, doesn't mean you should neglect other possibilities on their team (Domanick Davis). Especially since you could have made a roster spot for him by dumping a young talented #5 dime-a-dozen WR (Tyrone Calico) or prospect TE (Jason Whitten).

 
The one most important lesson I've learned is to trust my instincts more. Quite often, when sites like this and others put out their draft rankings or when it seems that the "herd" mentality is prevalent about certain players, one tends to shy away from listening to one's own gut feelings or instincts if they differ. While these draft rankings are good guides, one has to also use a lot of one's own experience and expertise too. I've passed up on some players that I thought were good selections only because it differed a lot from what the general consensus was. :cry:
This one got me last year and I learned from it didnt take Ricky williams, ignored it this year and took holmes at 2 :yes:
 
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I learned that if you like sex, don't buy your wife a toaster for her birthday. And I learned about Wisers, the full flavored whiskey.Sorry couldn't resist.I learned to target players who have high yardage, low TD totals because the TDs will come .... I will never undervalue a Torry Holt again.
part 1 :D part 2 shhh
 
Very likely, my memory gets fuzzy during finals week, but just for my own reference, was it one of Wood's stategist column or did somebody else write it? and curiously what week was it?
I think it was a Stategist article from October. Good stuff. I just wish I could see the results of similar study on TE, PK and DT.
 
Do you have a link for it? I didn't see it under articles or find it under search.
Don't waste your time :thumbdown: just kidding. Sorry I don't have a link, but Drugrunner will be by shortly to pimp his theory
 
Don't waste your time :thumbdown: just kidding. Sorry I don't have a link, but Drugrunner will be by shortly to pimp his theory
I'm game to see how the theory works. Let him pimp away. So far my bottom line is to use VBD with the perfect draft and a little English from my gut.
 
Lesson I learned:  Don't take a TE early any more. 

Little voice in my head:  It's ok if it's Gonzo.

Lesson I learned:  No!  I won't do it any more!

Little voice in my head:  It was your 2nd and 3rd round picks that sucked, not Gonzo in the fourth.

Lesson I learned:  Aaarrrrrgggghhhh!!!!
I learned the Lesson the hard way as well this year.In 15 years of playing Fantasy Football, I never tried it before this year, but year after year, "experts" continue to make pretty logical arguments that if you are in a league that starts a TE, go out and get a great one early to distance yourself from the pack in that position.

Always seemed to make alittle sense, but i never brought myself to do it until this season.

I WILL NEVER AGAIN MAKE THIS MISTAKE!
A team in one of my leagues did this drafting RB RB RB GONZO QB then I forget but he is 14-0 top seed in the playoffs.Now I didn't take a TE until about round 20 and still ended up with Becht (prior Pennington injury)

So I do think that taking a TE early is not worth doing unless you are ignoring WRs when you draft.
with straight VBD, you are comparing a TE1 with a TE12 which, IMO, artificially inflates his draft value. When you consider that TE12 will be drafted about round 15 and QB12 will be drafted around round 10, and RB24 will be drafted around round 3, it all seems kind of silly to do staright VBD.

 
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