What ONE THING did you learn this season (1 Viewer)

[Sam Quentin]

another one:"regression to the mean"There was a great FBG article that mentioned this concept...

 

[Fols]

1. Draft Dominator works! I have always used VBD and created my own cheetsheats, but using this tool in both prep and the actual draft was invaluable. I, like many of us get caught in taking the comfortable pick at times, and by using DD it helped me to Identify rounds to target players so to not over pay for them. It also put players that I may have passed on because they were not players I typically felt comfortable with. I still used my own judgement to take RB's 1st but when the value was too high in the 2nd round to pass up Randy Moss, I took it. 2. Don't dismiss a player just because you hate him. I do not like Moss on my team, but took him anyway. He did well enough to trade him and Westbrook for CJohnson and CPep.3. Trade when Value is high for players you are targeting. I traded Mason, Pittman, Moss, and Westbrook all after they blew up, for SA, CJohnson, and Cpepper.4. Fred Taylor is not Fragile and you cannot get fair Value for him in Trade.5. LUCK! LUCK! LUCK!Three Leagues 3 Point championships 3 best records a combined 37-5 record and still alive in all three postseasons.Finally, 2 stud RB's plus Holt and CJohnson in later rounds = Championship and it doesn't matter who your QB, K, or DEF/ST is.

 

[radballs.]

I've learned absolutely nothing because I'll make the same damn mistakes next year.I don't hold grudges, but I perceive players a certain way, and it often comes back to get me.

My perception of a player changes too slooooowly; I'm stubborn that way. So by the time my perception is in line with a player's actual value, it's too late to do anything about it. I either own the untradeable dud or I failed to get the stud in the making when he was cheap.

Very good point. Take this one step further and next year you'll continue to have a bias against a player because he burned you the previous year even though he might represent great value in a draft in which you could select him.Example for 2004 draft: Drafting Plaxico over Holt (at 3.03) literally cost me $5,000 in 2003 through the WCOFF (this is true in my case). My mind tells me I won't touch Plaxico no matter what, but there may be a point where he becomes a value pick and you shouldn't pass him up. I wonder where that clown will go next year?

 

[Frank Black]

In 4 leagues this year, I have discovered this valuable thing that goes towards comfort level, all other things being equal: if you can draft or pick up a high level performing kicker on the same team as your QB, RB, or WR, then put that kicker on your team.

I drafted WILKENS in the last round of all 4 of my drafts this year. In all my leagues, I have either BULGER, FAULK or HOLT. Whenever the Rams offense is inside the red zone or just outside of it, I don't find myself fretting as much, because I know that I have an excellent chance of scoring 3 points on the drive, which in many leagues makes a difference.

Instead of being on pins and needles when the Rams get in the red zone, wondering which Ram will score, I feel a peace of mind that I will get sigificant points out of the team one way or the other.

I see VANDY in a similar light for the Colts.

 

[Redhots GM]

Luck is a prime factor in winning.No matter how good your team is if your opponent scores more points than you.....you lose.7 of the 14 weeks the high score was against me. 4 of the 14, the second highest. Team ranked 7th in scoring, had the most points against, ended up 1-13.Not a damn thing I could do.

 

[Spike]

You win with RB studs...If you are going to be weak anywhere coming out of the draft, let it be in your WR corps, as you can always find good value early in the year on the WW...

I RE-learned that these are the two most overhyped concepts in FF. As for the RB thing, those who bypassed guys like Moss, Manning etc for studs like Garner, Slick Willie Green and the like know the how overrated the first one can be. For the 2d, sure you CAN find a good WR later, but your odds are smaller than the concept claims. Calico, Ant. Bryant, Ferguson, Streets etc etc…a few among many possible FA WRs that many people picked up thinking such a strat. would pay off, and ending up weak in the WR dept.And I also am more willing to wait on a QB, after years of believing in grabbing one of the “studs” early.

I have to disagree, I don't think its overhyped at all. Looking at my leagues top 10s at wr and rb (performance scoring with 1 pt for every rec) I notice this:Wrs DraftedMoss 2Holt 4Boldin WWC Johnson 6Ward 2Harrison 1Owens 2McCardell WWS Moss WWMason 63 of the top 10 (33%) of our wrs at the end of the season were early waiver wire acquisitions. 5 of the 10 (50%) were picked in Rounds 4 or lower. So you had an even shot of getting a late round/waiver wire gem as you did getting an early stud. Now look at our top 10 in rbsrbs DraftedHolmes 1LT2 1A Green 2Portis 1Deuce 1Lewis 1SA 1F Taylor 2R Williams 1Moe Williams 12Out of 10 only 1 was a late round/waiver wire gem. And 7 of the 10 were 1st round picks. Green easily could have also been a first rounder thus increasing the stats but that was the owner that took Harrison first.So I would say looking at these end of the season numbers at least in my leagues circumstances an owner has a much better chance of hitting a top 10 wr later on in the draft or from the waiver wire than you do with a rb. The top 10 for rbs is dominated by the "studs"I know every league is different but I would be shocked to see numbers widely skewed from this.

Great post Slim. Excellent!

 

[Shooter McGavin]

QBBC is really aggravating if all of your QBs are mediocre.Taking the time to do your own projections and look at a lot of mocks to make your own cheatsheet is worth the time and effort.

 

[mjs9199]

Do you have a link for it? I didn't see it under articles or find it under search.

I found this on my hard drive and uploaded it to the web. Minimal WR by DrugrunnerOld Yeller, fond memories.This is from 8/18/02, so bear with some of the names he talks about.

 

[zoonation]

I learned that no matter how good your team is, and if you win 12 games, you can still get beat in the fist round of the playoffs. PROVING that FF is more about luck than anyone around here will admit.Just lost with:BrooksGreenAlexanderHoltBoldinHeapStoverSea.to a team with:KitnaRWTaylorBookerThompsonMcMichaelWilkinsMIANow seriously, who has the better team? I outscored this guy by like 300 points in the regular season.Thought this was the best team I ever drafted

 

[Zerp]

Now seriously, who has the better team?

The other guy.

 

[smlevin]

You win with RB studs...If you are going to be weak anywhere coming out of the draft, let it be in your WR corps, as you can always find good value early in the year on the WW...

I RE-learned that these are the two most overhyped concepts in FF. As for the RB thing, those who bypassed guys like Moss, Manning etc for studs like Garner, Slick Willie Green and the like know the how overrated the first one can be. For the 2d, sure you CAN find a good WR later, but your odds are smaller than the concept claims. Calico, Ant. Bryant, Ferguson, Streets etc etc…a few among many possible FA WRs that many people picked up thinking such a strat. would pay off, and ending up weak in the WR dept.And I also am more willing to wait on a QB, after years of believing in grabbing one of the “studs” early.

I have to disagree, I don't think its overhyped at all. Looking at my leagues top 10s at wr and rb (performance scoring with 1 pt for every rec) I notice this:Wrs DraftedMoss 2Holt 4Boldin WWC Johnson 6Ward 2Harrison 1Owens 2McCardell WWS Moss WWMason 63 of the top 10 (33%) of our wrs at the end of the season were early waiver wire acquisitions. 5 of the 10 (50%) were picked in Rounds 4 or lower. So you had an even shot of getting a late round/waiver wire gem as you did getting an early stud. Now look at our top 10 in rbsrbs DraftedHolmes 1LT2 1A Green 2Portis 1Deuce 1Lewis 1SA 1F Taylor 2R Williams 1Moe Williams 12Out of 10 only 1 was a late round/waiver wire gem. And 7 of the 10 were 1st round picks. Green easily could have also been a first rounder thus increasing the stats but that was the owner that took Harrison first.So I would say looking at these end of the season numbers at least in my leagues circumstances an owner has a much better chance of hitting a top 10 wr later on in the draft or from the waiver wire than you do with a rb. The top 10 for rbs is dominated by the "studs"I know every league is different but I would be shocked to see numbers widely skewed from this.

Great post Slim. Excellent!

The premise I believe was "you win with RB studs" and "if you are going to slack at the draft, slack at WR."I think they are misstated, but, in effect, become truisms.Re-stated properly: "I learned that you can compensate for a weakly drafted WR crew from the WW, but you need to draft stud RBs to consistently win."

 

[smlevin]

I learned that others want you top pay for thier players' name valuein trades, but rarely will pay for you players' name value.One of my biggest headache this year was trying to buy players at low price who were underperforming - Dillon and TO namely.I also learned that three stud RBs make your life very easy in a flex league, but you only need one to win first place in the league (I closed the year starting Faulk and JJax each week, and won first place, but I won it all last year with Deuce, FredT and Tiki - this year was much more weekin-weekout stress).

 

[ghosttothepost]

I learned that you should never play in a league with GOGOGIANTS. Unless, of course, you get his $$ up front and your brother's marriage is solid.

 

[mojotech]

The stud WR theory does not work.

 

[smlevin]

I also learned that I could miss ceratin avatars: Gridiron's penguin. Burning Sensation's toothless afro funkmeister. Reg's mullet. Even Matrix' Stu Jackson.

 

[Cocky Crow]

I've learned that I am addicted to FF, and spend too much time on it (like reading through ungodly long threads like this ). There are no true FF Guru's. Trust your gut, and when things work out, there is no better satisfaction.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

It's all about rounds 1-4, late round miracles, and good waiver wire work.Draft by round in 10 team shark league:Ahman GreenRandy MossJamal LewisSteve McNairJerry Porter - benchedQuincy Morgan - droppedAntoine Smith - droppedOnterrio Smith - droppedTom Brady RavensJames Thrash - droppedDavid Patten - droppedTitansJeff WilkinsFrank Wycheck - droppedChad Lewis - droppedMaurice Morris - droppedDrew BennettAntoine Randel El - tradedJustin McCareins - GREAT PICK!Picked up or traded for Walker, Mili, Jones, Michael Bennett, The Bus.

 

[smlevin]

It's all about rounds 1-4, late round miracles, and good waiver wire work.Draft by round in 10 team shark league:Ahman GreenRandy MossJamal LewisSteve McNairJerry Porter - benchedQuincy Morgan - droppedAntoine Smith - droppedOnterrio Smith - droppedTom Brady RavensJames Thrash - droppedDavid Patten - droppedTitansJeff WilkinsFrank Wycheck - droppedChad Lewis - droppedMaurice Morris - droppedDrew BennettAntoine Randel El - tradedJustin McCareins - GREAT PICK!Picked up or traded for Walker, Mili, Jones, Michael Bennett, The Bus.

Did you trade up in the third? How did you get AGreen and RMoss with your late 1st/early 2nd and then still be able to gey JLew with what shoulsd have been a late third round pick?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

It's all about rounds 1-4, late round miracles, and good waiver wire work.Draft by round in 10 team shark league:Ahman GreenRandy MossJamal LewisSteve McNairJerry Porter - benchedQuincy Morgan - droppedAntoine Smith - droppedOnterrio Smith - droppedTom Brady RavensJames Thrash - droppedDavid Patten - droppedTitansJeff WilkinsFrank Wycheck - droppedChad Lewis - droppedMaurice Morris - droppedDrew BennettAntoine Randel El - tradedJustin McCareins - GREAT PICK!Picked up or traded for Walker, Mili, Jones, Michael Bennett, The Bus.

Did you trade up in the third? How did you get AGreen and RMoss with your late 1st/early 2nd and then still be able to gey JLew with what shoulsd have been a late third round pick?

We start 3WR and they tend to go quicker than a typical mock (six were gone at 3.08). Also, as you may recall, Jamal was not generally ranked high due to overly negative outlook on his durability (seems like such a joke now). At the time, I was told that all four of my first four picks were reaches. With the points championship in hand, I guess we know who had the last laugh.

 

[Waverunner]

Dynamic VBD is a great system as long as you have common senseDraft Dominator works!Know your compitition. I knew that a guy wanted to always start a RB in his flex position so I used that knowledge and the psychology that I would never trade with this guy and ended up getting Torry Holt for Stacey Mack.Things I already Knew1. Stud RB theory.2. Draft that 1st QB even later than you planned.3. After the draft (assuming a 16 player roster), only have 2 QBs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D with 4-5 RBs and 6-7 WR's

 

[Bionic Eyeball]

Do not abandon your plan!My draft plan:1. First two rounds draft RB/RB2. Do not draft a QB in the first five rounds3. Do not draft a TE in the first five rounds4. Be one of the last guys to pick a defense5. Pick a kicker in the final roundMy actual draft:1. Tomlinson2. Fred Taylor3. Rich Gannon 4. Todd Heap (hey, I already broke my rules and there he was . . .) 5. Chad Johnson (back on track) Despite Gannon's efforts to sabotage my team, I managed to recover and become the top scoring team with the third best record. Trent Green, Steve McNair, and of course, Jon Kitna were all available much later. I almost took Plaxico with my third pick so I guess I did not need that pick anyway. This year I stuck with 3/5 of my plan. Next year 5/5.Lesson learned: STICK TO YOUR PLAN no matter what temptation comes your way! (Past performance does not guarantee future success.)