Sam Quentin
Footballguy
another one:"regression to the mean"There was a great FBG article that mentioned this concept...
Very good point. Take this one step further and next year you'll continue to have a bias against a player because he burned you the previous year even though he might represent great value in a draft in which you could select him.Example for 2004 draft: Drafting Plaxico over Holt (at 3.03) literally cost me $5,000 in 2003 through the WCOFF (this is true in my case). My mind tells me I won't touch Plaxico no matter what, but there may be a point where he becomes a value pick and you shouldn't pass him up. I wonder where that clown will go next year?My perception of a player changes too slooooowly; I'm stubborn that way. So by the time my perception is in line with a player's actual value, it's too late to do anything about it. I either own the untradeable dud or I failed to get the stud in the making when he was cheap.I've learned absolutely nothing because I'll make the same damn mistakes next year.I don't hold grudges, but I perceive players a certain way, and it often comes back to get me.
Great post Slim. Excellent!I have to disagree, I don't think its overhyped at all. Looking at my leagues top 10s at wr and rb (performance scoring with 1 pt for every rec) I notice this:Wrs DraftedMoss 2Holt 4Boldin WWC Johnson 6Ward 2Harrison 1Owens 2McCardell WWS Moss WWMason 63 of the top 10 (33%) of our wrs at the end of the season were early waiver wire acquisitions. 5 of the 10 (50%) were picked in Rounds 4 or lower. So you had an even shot of getting a late round/waiver wire gem as you did getting an early stud. Now look at our top 10 in rbsrbs DraftedHolmes 1LT2 1A Green 2Portis 1Deuce 1Lewis 1SA 1F Taylor 2R Williams 1Moe Williams 12Out of 10 only 1 was a late round/waiver wire gem. And 7 of the 10 were 1st round picks. Green easily could have also been a first rounder thus increasing the stats but that was the owner that took Harrison first.So I would say looking at these end of the season numbers at least in my leagues circumstances an owner has a much better chance of hitting a top 10 wr later on in the draft or from the waiver wire than you do with a rb. The top 10 for rbs is dominated by the "studs"I know every league is different but I would be shocked to see numbers widely skewed from this.I RE-learned that these are the two most overhyped concepts in FF. As for the RB thing, those who bypassed guys like Moss, Manning etc for studs like Garner, Slick Willie Green and the like know the how overrated the first one can be. For the 2d, sure you CAN find a good WR later, but your odds are smaller than the concept claims. Calico, Ant. Bryant, Ferguson, Streets etc etc…a few among many possible FA WRs that many people picked up thinking such a strat. would pay off, and ending up weak in the WR dept.And I also am more willing to wait on a QB, after years of believing in grabbing one of the “studs” early.You win with RB studs...If you are going to be weak anywhere coming out of the draft, let it be in your WR corps, as you can always find good value early in the year on the WW...
I found this on my hard drive and uploaded it to the web. Minimal WR by DrugrunnerOld Yeller, fond memories.This is from 8/18/02, so bear with some of the names he talks about.Do you have a link for it? I didn't see it under articles or find it under search.
The other guy.Now seriously, who has the better team?
The premise I believe was "you win with RB studs" and "if you are going to slack at the draft, slack at WR."I think they are misstated, but, in effect, become truisms.Re-stated properly: "I learned that you can compensate for a weakly drafted WR crew from the WW, but you need to draft stud RBs to consistently win."Great post Slim. Excellent!I have to disagree, I don't think its overhyped at all. Looking at my leagues top 10s at wr and rb (performance scoring with 1 pt for every rec) I notice this:Wrs DraftedMoss 2Holt 4Boldin WWC Johnson 6Ward 2Harrison 1Owens 2McCardell WWS Moss WWMason 63 of the top 10 (33%) of our wrs at the end of the season were early waiver wire acquisitions. 5 of the 10 (50%) were picked in Rounds 4 or lower. So you had an even shot of getting a late round/waiver wire gem as you did getting an early stud. Now look at our top 10 in rbsrbs DraftedHolmes 1LT2 1A Green 2Portis 1Deuce 1Lewis 1SA 1F Taylor 2R Williams 1Moe Williams 12Out of 10 only 1 was a late round/waiver wire gem. And 7 of the 10 were 1st round picks. Green easily could have also been a first rounder thus increasing the stats but that was the owner that took Harrison first.So I would say looking at these end of the season numbers at least in my leagues circumstances an owner has a much better chance of hitting a top 10 wr later on in the draft or from the waiver wire than you do with a rb. The top 10 for rbs is dominated by the "studs"I know every league is different but I would be shocked to see numbers widely skewed from this.I RE-learned that these are the two most overhyped concepts in FF. As for the RB thing, those who bypassed guys like Moss, Manning etc for studs like Garner, Slick Willie Green and the like know the how overrated the first one can be. For the 2d, sure you CAN find a good WR later, but your odds are smaller than the concept claims. Calico, Ant. Bryant, Ferguson, Streets etc etc…a few among many possible FA WRs that many people picked up thinking such a strat. would pay off, and ending up weak in the WR dept.And I also am more willing to wait on a QB, after years of believing in grabbing one of the “studs” early.You win with RB studs...If you are going to be weak anywhere coming out of the draft, let it be in your WR corps, as you can always find good value early in the year on the WW...
'ghosttothe]I learned that you should never play in a league with GOGOGIANTS. Unless said:I also learned that I could miss ceratin avatars: Gridiron's penguin. Burning Sensation's toothless afro funkmeister. Reg's mullet. Even Matrix' Stu Jackson.
Did you trade up in the third? How did you get AGreen and RMoss with your late 1st/early 2nd and then still be able to gey JLew with what shoulsd have been a late third round pick?It's all about rounds 1-4, late round miracles, and good waiver wire work.Draft by round in 10 team shark league:Ahman GreenRandy MossJamal LewisSteve McNairJerry Porter - benchedQuincy Morgan - droppedAntoine Smith - droppedOnterrio Smith - droppedTom Brady RavensJames Thrash - droppedDavid Patten - droppedTitansJeff WilkinsFrank Wycheck - droppedChad Lewis - droppedMaurice Morris - droppedDrew BennettAntoine Randel El - tradedJustin McCareins - GREAT PICK!Picked up or traded for Walker, Mili, Jones, Michael Bennett, The Bus.
We start 3WR and they tend to go quicker than a typical mock (six were gone at 3.08). Also, as you may recall, Jamal was not generally ranked high due to overly negative outlook on his durability (seems like such a joke now). At the time, I was told that all four of my first four picks were reaches. With the points championship in hand, I guess we know who had the last laugh.Did you trade up in the third? How did you get AGreen and RMoss with your late 1st/early 2nd and then still be able to gey JLew with what shoulsd have been a late third round pick?It's all about rounds 1-4, late round miracles, and good waiver wire work.Draft by round in 10 team shark league:Ahman GreenRandy MossJamal LewisSteve McNairJerry Porter - benchedQuincy Morgan - droppedAntoine Smith - droppedOnterrio Smith - droppedTom Brady RavensJames Thrash - droppedDavid Patten - droppedTitansJeff WilkinsFrank Wycheck - droppedChad Lewis - droppedMaurice Morris - droppedDrew BennettAntoine Randel El - tradedJustin McCareins - GREAT PICK!Picked up or traded for Walker, Mili, Jones, Michael Bennett, The Bus.