What to do with ADP? (1 Viewer)

[videoguy505]

My 12 team league is going into its third year on CBS.Sportsline. Year 1, a couple of owners didn't show up for the online draft, so sportsline auto-drafted for them. Not having pre-ranked their players, they ended up with default picks. For those that don't know, sportsline apparently just uses your league's scoring system and ranks by total projected points. This ended up having the two teams picking QBs in round 1, DSTs in rounds 2 and 3, kickers in round 5, and plenty of other awful picks as well.

After a good year of jabs and taunts, I was pretty sure no team would make the same mistake. But, sure enough, the previous year's champ didn't rate his own players, and ended up using sportsline's defaults. The result? After drafing a starter for every position, he picked WRs for 8 straight picks. His being on the end of the snake sure made for hilarity.

So now it's year 3 and Sportsline has made the default rankings for my league. The top 50 look like:

Manning	PeytonJohnson	LarryBrady	TomAlexander	ShaunHasselbeck MattPalmer	CarsonManning	EliTomlinson	LaDainianPortis	ClintonMcNabb	DonovanBledsoe	DrewGreen	TrentWarner	KurtBrees	DrewCulpepper	DaunteBulger	MarcFavre	BrettRoethlisberger BenBarber	TikiDelhomme	JakeOwens	TerrellVick	MichaelWilliams	CadillacJames	EdgerrinLeftwich	ByronJohnson	RudiPlummer	JakeJordan	LaMontSmith	SteveBrooks	AaronMcNair	SteveJohnson	ChadMoss	RandyBrunell	MarkDavis	DomanickKitna	JonRavens	BaltimoreJackson	StevenJones	JuliusHolt	TorryBrown	RonnieBills	BuffaloBush	ReggieHarrison	MarvinFitzgerald	LarryWestbrook	BrianJohnson	BradSteelers	PittsburghCarr	David

Knowing what's happened in the past, has anyone here had experience with modifying a logical ADP to reflect the tendencies of a league where a couple of owners might be on this system? I'd anticipate most of the owners will have reasonable picks, though somewhat biased by non-Shark and "newstand fantasy magazine" thinking... paying too much for "sleepers" with value still on the board, for example. Any thoughts on leveraging this ADP against the league?

 

[mbuehner]

Simple answer- dont show up for the draft (or at least pre-rank), lose your franchise.

 

[videoguy505]

I guess what would really help is a way to figure out who will go where and throw it into DD. Perhaps I'll post this over in Apps as well and see if there's a good way to put together an ADP for a crazy setup like this.

 

[Shrek]

Simple answer- dont show up for the draft (or at least pre-rank), lose your franchise.

In the leagues I commish, if you are a no call/no show for the draft, and someone isn't there to draft for you, you are gone, no questions asked. Crap like this ruins it for everyone else.

 

[MLBrandow]

I understand what you're asking.

What I don't understand is why you are asking for help in outsmarting guys who use the CBS prerankings if they even show up for your draft?

It would be a very cool idea if they were at your skill level, and yet still depended on the rankings.. but I think the very fact that you post here tells me you're a bit more in tune with FF than they are.

I suppose if I'm actually being helpful....

Go here: http://www.antsports.com/adp.aspx

Copy that list into a spreadsheet and compare it with the player rankings on CBS. The differences would be your value picks.

not sure that helps you much.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

Just adjust your expectations of who will last based on what you know of your league. ADP is just a tool, it's not gospel. It just happens to be the best approximation we have to use for comparison. It is far more important to have a good idea how your league drafts and thus who you think will (and who won't) be there at your next pick and down the road.

Even better is to know tendencies of specific drafters. If you know who the guys who might reach are, you can adjust a bit when they have 2 picks before your turn. but also know not to adjust for them if they don't select before your next pick. For example, being the person next to the Auto-drafter on the turn last year would have been a big advantage because you could presumably know exactly who was going to go in the next two picks.