What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

When do we go in and wipe out ISIS? (1 Viewer)

thanks Obama

A 2012 report by the United States Defense Intelligence Agency was direct: The growing chaos in Syria’s civil war was giving Islamic militants there and in Iraq the space to spread and flourish. The group, it said, could “declare an Islamic state through its union with other terrorist organizations in Iraq and Syria.”

“This particular report, this was one of those nobody wanted to see,” said Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn, who ran the defense agency at the time.

“It was disregarded by the White House,” he said. “It was disregarded by other elements in the intelligence community as a one-off report. Frankly, at the White House, it didn’t meet the narrative.”
Click to expand...
 
tommyGunZ said:
John Bender said:
tommyGunZ said:
John Bender said:
Couple questions I had not meant to bother anyone...

The likelihood that something will happen in the US is pretty great I'd suppose at this point? The method seems pretty easy, if even just 20 of the thousands of refugees coming here have bad intentions, it seems like homemade explosives are easy enough to make this point (not to mention, guns are easy enough to get)...the likelihood has to be some sort of crude suicide bomb, yes? This seems to not be a matter of if, but of when and where...or am I way off base? Pick up standard materials used to create a chemical reaction, walk into a crowded place during a crowded event and set it off. What am I missing there?

Obama will block any bill passed by the House that would make refugee admittance stricter. This seems off to me...don't we want a stricter vetting process? I'm not against refugees and (laugh now) but I didn't read the entire article but what's the downside to the bill if it's truly just to vet refugees we take in more closely? I'm not thinking "close the borders". I'm not thinking: "don't take refugees." I am of the mindset, let's be a bit more careful and I can't see where I'm going wrong there.

ETA: on the 2nd point...we can't do NOTHING. We have to do SOMETHING. Wouldn't the most humane SOMETHING being a middle ground as proposed by the house by vetting a lot more intensively? This seems crazy to me that we can't at least meet in that middle.

Open to changing both mindsets...and more just for discussion as someone who can't seem to come to a conclusion.
Click to expand...
Meeting in the middle is a mistake when one side has gone bat#### crazy. We are already behind the curve in hosting Syrian refugees. Increasing the vetting process to make xenophobic conservatives feel better is silly policy.
Click to expand...
Conservatives have nothing to do with my point. Maybe that's the issue... Everyone wants to jump first to a political side and then figure out where they stand. I'm looking for some feedback on the issue not a political pissing match that is presently occurring. Appeasing conservatives has nothing to do with anything when it comes to my thoughts. Jesus man.

You might as well say "we can't address this problem because it might make those damn conservatives satisfied!" you really care about that first and foremost?
Click to expand...
Sorry dude - you were talking about politics in your post so I don't think it was really off base to respond with a post that gave a political opinion. In short, you're more likely to be struck by lightening while holding a winning powerball ticket than you are to be blown up by a Syrian refugee terrorist. I guess I'll let you pontificate on the need for legislation once you factor in Bayes theorem.
Click to expand...
Brilliant analysis in a world where doing nothing means something.
 
IS working to produce chemical weapons: officialsThe Islamic State group is aggressively pursuing development of chemical weapons, setting up a branch dedicated to research and experiments with the help of scientists from Iraq, Syria and elsewhere in the region, according to Iraqi and US intelligence officials.

Their quest raises an alarming scenario for the West, given the determination to strike major cities that the group showed with its bloody attack last week in Paris. US intelligence officials do not believe IS has the capability to develop sophisticated weapons like nerve gas that are most suited for a terrorist attack on a civilian target. So far, the group has used mustard gas on the battlefield in Iraq and Syria.

Still, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls on Thursday warned that Islamic extremists might at some point use chemical or biological weapons.

Iraqi officials expressed concern that the large haven the extremists control since overrunning parts of Iraq and Syria last year has left Iraqi authorities largely in the dark over the IS program.

“They (IS) now have complete freedom to select locations for their labs and production sites and have a wide range of experts, both civilians and military, to aid them,” a senior Iraqi intelligence official said.

The official, like others from the Iraqi and US intelligence agencies who have first-hand knowledge of the IS chemical weapons program, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive information.

So far, the only overt sign of the group’s chemical weapons program has been the apparent use of mustard gas against Iraqi Kurdish fighters and in Syria. In mortars that hit Kurdish forces in northern Iraq earlier this year, preliminary tests by the US showed traces of the chemical agent sulfur mustard.

Iraqi authorities clearly fear the use could be expanded. Over the summer, Iraq’s military distributed gas masks to troops deployed west and north of Baghdad. A senior officer in Salahuddin province, north of Baghdad, said 25% of the troops deployed there were equipped with masks.

More recently, Iraq’s military received from Russia 1,000 protective suits against chemical attacks, said Hakim al-Zamili, the head of the Iraqi parliament’s security and defense committee.

IS has set up a branch tasked with pursuing chemical weapons, according to a senior Iraqi military intelligence officer and two officials from another Iraqi intelligence agency. They would not give details of the program, including how many personnel it is believed to have or its budget.

But al-Zamili, citing intelligence reports he has access to, said the group has managed to attract chemical experts from abroad as well as Iraqi experts, including ones who once worked for Saddam Hussein’s now-dissolved Military Industrialization Authority. The foreigners include experts from Chechnya and southeast Asia, the Iraqi intelligence officials said.

IS recently moved its research labs, experts and materials from Iraq to “secured locations” inside Syria, al-Zamili added — apparently out of concern of an eventual assault on Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, captured by IS in the summer of 2014.

“Daesh is working very seriously to reach production of chemical weapons, particularly nerve gas,” al-Zamili said, using an Arabic acronym for the group. “That would threaten not just Iraq but the whole world.”

Still, US intelligence officials say they do not believe IS has the technological capability to produce nerve gas or biological agents, and that the militants were more likely to harm themselves trying to make them. A European official privy to intelligence on the extremist group’s programs agreed, saying so far IS production of mustard gas was in small quantities and of low quality.

Retired Lt. Gen. Richard Zahner, who was the top American military intelligence officer in Iraq in 2005 and 2006 and went on to lead the National Security Agency’s electronic spying arm, noted that al-Qaida tried for two decades to develop chemical weapons and did not succeed, showing the technical and scientific difficulties.

However, he said, US intelligence agencies have consistently underestimated the Islamic State group, which has shown itself to be more capable and innovative than al-Qaida and has greater financial resources.

“Even a few competent scientists and engineers, given the right motivation and a few material resources, can produce hazardous industrial and weapons-specific chemicals in limited quantities,” Zahner said.

Developing chemical weapons has been an ambition of the group — and various other jihadi movements — for years. There are also concerns about militants trying to obtain radioactive materials. An AP investigation published last month uncovered that authorities in the Eastern European nation of Moldova, working with the FBI, have interrupted four attempts in the past five years by gangs with suspected Russian connections that sought to sell radioactive material to Middle Eastern extremists.

A senior deputy of the group’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi wrote in a 2013 report to al-Baghdadi of “significant progress” toward producing chemical weapons, according to two senior officials with access to the document, obtained by Iraqi intelligence.

In it, the deputy, Sameer al-Khalifawy, wrote that chemical weapons would ensure “swift victory” and “terrorize our enemies.” But, he added, what was needed was “to secure a safe environment to carry out experiments.”

Al-Khalifawy was killed by rebels in Syria in early 2014. Months later, IS overran Mosul and much of northern and western Iraq, linking that territory to the stretches of northern and eastern Syria it controlled and declaring itself a “caliphate.”

 
higgins said:
IS working to produce chemical weapons: officials

The Islamic State group is aggressively pursuing development of chemical weapons, setting up a branch dedicated to research and experiments with the help of scientists from Iraq, Syria and elsewhere in the region, according to Iraqi and US intelligence officials.

Their quest raises an alarming scenario for the West, given the determination to strike major cities that the group showed with its bloody attack last week in Paris. US intelligence officials do not believe IS has the capability to develop sophisticated weapons like nerve gas that are most suited for a terrorist attack on a civilian target. So far, the group has used mustard gas on the battlefield in Iraq and Syria.

Still, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls on Thursday warned that Islamic extremists might at some point use chemical or biological weapons.

Iraqi officials expressed concern that the large haven the extremists control since overrunning parts of Iraq and Syria last year has left Iraqi authorities largely in the dark over the IS program.

“They (IS) now have complete freedom to select locations for their labs and production sites and have a wide range of experts, both civilians and military, to aid them,” a senior Iraqi intelligence official said.

The official, like others from the Iraqi and US intelligence agencies who have first-hand knowledge of the IS chemical weapons program, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive information.

...
Click to expand...
Ok, so can we put chemical weapons down as being "WMD"?

TIA, asking for my friend Hillary.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
higgins said:
IS working to produce chemical weapons: officials

The Islamic State group is aggressively pursuing development of chemical weapons, setting up a branch dedicated to research and experiments with the help of scientists from Iraq, Syria and elsewhere in the region, according to Iraqi and US intelligence officials.

Their quest raises an alarming scenario for the West, given the determination to strike major cities that the group showed with its bloody attack last week in Paris. US intelligence officials do not believe IS has the capability to develop sophisticated weapons like nerve gas that are most suited for a terrorist attack on a civilian target. So far, the group has used mustard gas on the battlefield in Iraq and Syria.

Still, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls on Thursday warned that Islamic extremists might at some point use chemical or biological weapons.

Iraqi officials expressed concern that the large haven the extremists control since overrunning parts of Iraq and Syria last year has left Iraqi authorities largely in the dark over the IS program.

“They (IS) now have complete freedom to select locations for their labs and production sites and have a wide range of experts, both civilians and military, to aid them,” a senior Iraqi intelligence official said.

The official, like others from the Iraqi and US intelligence agencies who have first-hand knowledge of the IS chemical weapons program, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive information.

So far, the only overt sign of the group’s chemical weapons program has been the apparent use of mustard gas against Iraqi Kurdish fighters and in Syria. In mortars that hit Kurdish forces in northern Iraq earlier this year, preliminary tests by the US showed traces of the chemical agent sulfur mustard.

Iraqi authorities clearly fear the use could be expanded. Over the summer, Iraq’s military distributed gas masks to troops deployed west and north of Baghdad. A senior officer in Salahuddin province, north of Baghdad, said 25% of the troops deployed there were equipped with masks.

More recently, Iraq’s military received from Russia 1,000 protective suits against chemical attacks, said Hakim al-Zamili, the head of the Iraqi parliament’s security and defense committee.

IS has set up a branch tasked with pursuing chemical weapons, according to a senior Iraqi military intelligence officer and two officials from another Iraqi intelligence agency. They would not give details of the program, including how many personnel it is believed to have or its budget.

But al-Zamili, citing intelligence reports he has access to, said the group has managed to attract chemical experts from abroad as well as Iraqi experts, including ones who once worked for Saddam Hussein’s now-dissolved Military Industrialization Authority. The foreigners include experts from Chechnya and southeast Asia, the Iraqi intelligence officials said.

IS recently moved its research labs, experts and materials from Iraq to “secured locations” inside Syria, al-Zamili added — apparently out of concern of an eventual assault on Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, captured by IS in the summer of 2014.

“Daesh is working very seriously to reach production of chemical weapons, particularly nerve gas,” al-Zamili said, using an Arabic acronym for the group. “That would threaten not just Iraq but the whole world.”

Still, US intelligence officials say they do not believe IS has the technological capability to produce nerve gas or biological agents, and that the militants were more likely to harm themselves trying to make them. A European official privy to intelligence on the extremist group’s programs agreed, saying so far IS production of mustard gas was in small quantities and of low quality.

Retired Lt. Gen. Richard Zahner, who was the top American military intelligence officer in Iraq in 2005 and 2006 and went on to lead the National Security Agency’s electronic spying arm, noted that al-Qaida tried for two decades to develop chemical weapons and did not succeed, showing the technical and scientific difficulties.

However, he said, US intelligence agencies have consistently underestimated the Islamic State group, which has shown itself to be more capable and innovative than al-Qaida and has greater financial resources.

“Even a few competent scientists and engineers, given the right motivation and a few material resources, can produce hazardous industrial and weapons-specific chemicals in limited quantities,” Zahner said.

Developing chemical weapons has been an ambition of the group — and various other jihadi movements — for years. There are also concerns about militants trying to obtain radioactive materials. An AP investigation published last month uncovered that authorities in the Eastern European nation of Moldova, working with the FBI, have interrupted four attempts in the past five years by gangs with suspected Russian connections that sought to sell radioactive material to Middle Eastern extremists.

A senior deputy of the group’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi wrote in a 2013 report to al-Baghdadi of “significant progress” toward producing chemical weapons, according to two senior officials with access to the document, obtained by Iraqi intelligence.

In it, the deputy, Sameer al-Khalifawy, wrote that chemical weapons would ensure “swift victory” and “terrorize our enemies.” But, he added, what was needed was “to secure a safe environment to carry out experiments.”

Al-Khalifawy was killed by rebels in Syria in early 2014. Months later, IS overran Mosul and much of northern and western Iraq, linking that territory to the stretches of northern and eastern Syria it controlled and declaring itself a “caliphate.”
Click to expand...
Ah, the threat we cannot ignore. The banging of the war drums grows louder.

 
This is a SERIOUS problem - the Pentagon may have destroyed documents showing their awareness of the growth of ISIS dating back

Pentagon Expands Inquiry Into Intelligence on ISIS SurgeWASHINGTON — When Islamic State fighters overran a string of Iraqi cities last year, analysts at United States Central Command wrote classified assessments for military intelligence officials and policy makers that documented the humiliating retreat of the Iraqi Army. But before the assessments were final, former intelligence officials said, the analysts’ superiors made significant changes.

In the revised documents, the Iraqi Army had not retreated at all. The soldiers had simply “redeployed.”

Such changes are at the heart of an expanding internal Pentagon investigation of Centcom, as Central Command is known, where analysts say that supervisors revised conclusions to mask some of the American military’s failures in training Iraqi troops and beating back the Islamic State. The analysts say supervisors were particularly eager to paint a more optimistic picture of America’s role in the conflict than was warranted.

In recent weeks, the Pentagon inspector general seized a large trove of emails and documents from military servers as it examines the claims, and has added more investigators to the inquiry.

The attacks in Paris last week were a deadly demonstration that the Islamic State, once a group of militants focused on seizing territory in Iraq and Syria, has broadened its focus to attack the West. The electronic files seized in the Pentagon investigation tell the story of the group’s rise, as seen through the eyes of Centcom, which oversees military operations across the Middle East.

The exact content of those documents is unclear and may not become public because so much of the information is classified. But military officials have told Congress that some of those emails and documents may have been deleted before they had to be turned over to investigators, according to a senior congressional official, who requested anonymity to speak about the ongoing inquiry. Current and former officials have separately made similar claims, on condition of anonymity, to The New York Times. Although lawmakers are demanding answers about those claims, it is not clear that the inspector general has been able to verify them. A spokeswoman for the inspector general declined to comment.

Staff members at the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence are also poring over years of Centcom intelligence reports and comparing them to assessments from the Central Intelligence Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency and others. The committee is not just examining reports about Iraq, Syria and the Islamic State, but also about Afghanistan and other areas under Centcom’s purview. The insurrection inside Centcom is an important chapter in the story of how the United States responded to the growing threat from the Islamic State. This past summer, a group of Centcom analysts took concerns about their superiors to the inspector general, saying they had evidence that senior officials had changed intelligence assessments to overstate the progress of American airstrikes against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS.

The analysts said problems in Iraq were rooted in deep political and religious divides that could not easily be solved with a military campaign, current and former officials have said. Yet Centcom’s official posture remained generally upbeat.

It is not clear whether the Centcom assessments significantly changed the Obama administration’s views about ISIS. While Centcom was largely positive about American gains, other agencies have been more pessimistic. The White House has generally been measured in its assessments.

But President Obama and senior intelligence officials have acknowledged that the Islamic State’s rapid emergence caught them by surprise. At the least, the prospect that senior officials intentionally skewed intelligence conclusions has raised questions about how much Mr. Obama, Congress and the public can believe the military’s assessments.

Those questions have taken on a new urgency since the terror attacks in Paris, which signaled a new determination by ISIS to carry out terror attacks beyond the territory in Iraq and Syria it has declared its “caliphate.” Pressure has grown on the White House to articulate a more muscular strategy for dismantling the group, and a chorus of Republican lawmakers and presidential candidates are calling for an American ground campaign in Syria.

Senior lawmakers have begun their own inquiries into the military’s intelligence apparatus. Representative Mac Thornberry, the Republican from Texas who is chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said in an interview that his committee was examining intelligence assessments from Centcom and other military commands to see if there was a systemic problem of dissenting voices being muffled by senior military commanders.

“Any time there is an allegation that intelligence is being shaved in a certain way, or distorted in a certain way, that’s a cause for serious concern,” he said.

Mr. Thornberry said that Congress has to be careful not to impede the progress of the inspector general’s investigators, but that lawmakers “also have a job to do.”

On Thursday, Foreign Policy reported that a group of Republican lawmakers will be focusing on whether Centcom also skewed intelligence assessments about Afghanistan.

Representative Devin Nunes of California, the Republican chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, has been eager to expand his panel’s inquiry into the Centcom assessments. Mr. Nunes is planning to send a letter to the inspector general on Monday asking if emails and documents relevant to the investigation have indeed been deleted. He is also asking for copies of any deleted materials that investigators might be able to retrieve from Centcom servers.

For the moment, Mr. Nunes is making the request without the support of his Democratic counterpart, Representative Adam B. Schiff of California. Mr. Schiff said questions about skewed intelligence needed to be taken “very seriously,” but that the inspector general should be allowed to finish the inquiry before the House intelligence committee considered expanding its own investigation.

The committee has asked the Pentagon for permission to interview officials, including the two most senior intelligence officers at Centcom, Maj. Gen. Steven Grove and his civilian deputy, Gregory Ryckman. The request was denied by Pentagon officials, citing the ongoing internal investigation.

That investigation was prompted by complaints this past summer from Centcom’s longtime Iraq experts, led by Gregory Hooker, the senior Iraq analyst. In some ways, the team’s criticisms mirror those of a decade ago, when Mr. Hooker wrote a research paper saying the Bush administration, over many analysts’ objections, advocated a small force in Iraq and spent little time planning for what would follow the invasion.

Lawmakers originally said that the Centcom investigation would be completed in weeks. But Pentagon investigators have found the work painstaking and it could span months. In addition to determining whether changes were made to intelligence reports — and if so, who ordered them — the investigators, like the staff members of the House intelligence committee, are studying reports from other intelligence agencies produced at the time to determine what was actually occurring in Iraq and Syria when the reports were written.

Col. Patrick Ryder, a Centcom spokesman, said that the command welcomed the inspector general’s oversight and would respond to requests from Congress for information, and that Gen. Lloyd J. Austin III, the Centcom commander, would “take appropriate action once the investigation results have been received and reviewed.”
Click to expand...
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/11/22/us/politics/military-reviews-us-response-to-isis-rise.html?_r=0

 
Don't miss this tidbit from the NYT this past week:

In Rise of ISIS, No Single Missed Key but Many Strands of Blame...And there were, in fact, more than hints of the group’s plans and potential. A 2012 report by the United States Defense Intelligence Agency was direct: The growing chaos in Syria’s civil war was giving Islamic militants there and in Iraq the space to spread and flourish. The group, it said, could “declare an Islamic state through its union with other terrorist organizations in Iraq and Syria.”

“This particular report, this was one of those nobody wanted to see,” said Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn, who ran the defense agency at the time.

“It was disregarded by the White House,” he said. “It was disregarded by other elements in the intelligence community as a one-off report. Frankly, at the White House, it didn’t meet the narrative.”

...
Click to expand...
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/11/19/world/middleeast/in-rise-of-isis-no-single-missed-key-but-many-strands-of-blame.html?referer=&_r=0

Defense Intelligence Agency: “Establish a Salafist Principality in Syria”, Facilitate Rise of Islamic State “In Order to Isolate the Syrian Regime” Declassified DIA document...The document shows that as early as 2012, U.S. intelligence predicted the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIS), but instead of clearly delineating the group as an enemy, the report envisions the terror group as a U.S. strategic asset.

...The newly released DIA report makes the following summary points concerning “ISI” (in 2012 “Islamic State in Iraq,”) and the soon to emerge ISIS:

  • Al-Qaeda drives the opposition in Syria
  • The West identifies with the opposition
  • The establishment of a nascent Islamic State became a reality only with the rise of the Syrian insurgency (there is no mention of U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq as a catalyst for Islamic State’s rise, which is the contention of innumerable politicians and pundits; see section 4.D. below)
  • The establishment of a “Salafist Principality” in Eastern Syria is “exactly” what the external powers supporting the opposition want (identified as “the West, Gulf Countries, and Turkey”) in order to weaken the Assad government
  • “Safe havens” are suggested in areas conquered by Islamic insurgents along the lines of the Libyan model (which translates to so-called no-fly zones as a first act of ‘humanitarian war’; see 7.B.)
  • Iraq is identified with “Shia expansion” (8.C)
  • A Sunni “Islamic State” could be devastating to “unifying Iraq” and could lead to “the renewing facilitation of terrorist elements from all over the Arab world entering into Iraqi Arena.” (see last non-redacted line in full PDF view.)
...

The following is excerpted from the seven page DIA declassified report (bold-facing is my own):

R 050839Z AUG 12

…

THE GENERAL SITUATION:

A. INTERNALLY, EVENTS ARE TAKING A CLEAR SECTARIAN DIRECTION.

B. THE SALAFIST [sic], THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, AND AQI ARE THE MAJOR FORCES DRIVING THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA.

C. THE WEST, GULF COUNTRIES, AND TURKEY SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION; WHILE RUSSIA, CHINA AND IRAN SUPPORT THE REGIME.

…

3. (C ) Al QAEDA – IRAQ (AQI):… B. AQI SUPPORTED THE SYRIAN OPPOSITION FROM THE BEGINNING, BOTH IDEOLOGICALLY AND THROUGH THE MEDIA…

…

4.D. THERE WAS A REGRESSION OF AQI IN THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF IRAQ DURING THE YEARS OF 2009 AND 2010; HOWEVER, AFTER THE RISE OF THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA, THE RELIGIOUS AND TRIBAL POWERS IN THE REGIONS BEGAN TO SYMPATHIZE WITH THE SECTARIAN UPRISING. THIS (SYMPATHY) APPEARED IN FRIDAY PRAYER SERMONS, WHICH CALLED FOR VOLUNTEERS TO SUPPORT THE SUNNI’S [sic] IN SYRIA.

…

7. C THE FUTURE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE CRISIS:

A. THE REGIME WILL SURVIVE AND HAVE CONTROL OVER SYRIAN TERRITORY.

B. DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT EVENTS INTO PROXY WAR: …OPPOSITION FORCES ARE TRYING TO CONTROL THE EASTERN AREAS (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN IRAQI PROVINCES (MOSUL AND ANBAR), IN ADDITION TO NEIGHBORING TURKISH BORDERS. WESTERN COUNTRIES, THE GULF STATES AND TURKEY ARE SUPPORTING THESE EFFORTS. THIS HYPOTHESIS IS MOST LIKELY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DATA FROM RECENT EVENTS, WHICH WILL HELP PREPARE SAFE HAVENS UNDER INTERNATIONAL SHELTERING, SIMILAR TO WHAT TRANSPIRED IN LIBYA WHEN BENGHAZI WAS CHOSEN AS THE COMMAND CENTER OF THE TEMPORARY GOVERNMENT.

…

8.C- IF THE SITUATION UNRAVELS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO THE OPPOSITION WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME, WHICH IS CONSIDERED THE STRATEGIC DEPTH OF THE SHIA EXPANSION (IRAQ AND IRAN)

8.D.1. …ISI COULD ALSO DECLARE AN ISLAMIC STATE THROUGH ITS UNION WITH OTHER TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA, WHICH WILL CREATE GRAVE DANGER IN REGARDS TO UNIFYING IRAQ AND THE PROTECTION OF ITS TERRITORY.
Click to expand...
http://www.globalresearch.ca/defense-intelligence-agency-create-a-salafist-principality-in-syria-facilitate-rise-of-islamic-state-in-order-to-isolate-the-syrian-regime/5451216

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Several Belgian media outlets reported that the police had arrested four people on Saturday evening, one wearing a suicide belt. Geert Schoorens, a magistrate at the federal prosecutor’s office, said on Sunday that he could “neither deny nor confirm” those reports because investigations were ongoing.
Click to expand...
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/23/world/europe/brussels-remains-on-highest-alert-level-as-manhunts-expand.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimesworld&smtyp=cur

 
Q: Hey, Colonel Warren, it's Gordon.Just three quick clarifications on the trucks again. If -- sorry if I missed it, but why didn't you guys go back on the other trucks? There were 300, I think, to begin with, and then you hit 116. Why didn't you go back?

But also you described, like, the -- the kind of long process to -- to decide whether this was a legitimate target and it was in your best interest or not. At whose level was the authority-- who gave the final approval to do -- to hit these oil trucks? Did it -- was it there? Was it at CENTCOM? Was it at the OSD level, or above?

COL. WARREN: That's two. What's the third?

So, on the other trucks, so -- frankly, the -- the -- the aircraft expended 24 500-pound bombs, and -- and all of their ammunition. So they -- they shot everything they had and then they had to go home. ...
Click to expand...
http://www.defense.gov/News/News-Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/630393/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-col-warren-via-dvids-from-baghdad-iraq

- Outcome: US air force ran out of ammunition in attacking an Isis convoy, so more than half remained intact.

...During the course of that study, we also determined that part of the illicit oil system, from the oil coming out of the ground at a -- at a pump head, to the end of that chain, which is the distribution network.So, this is a decision that we had to make. We have not struck these trucks before. We assessed that these trucks, while although they are being used for operations that support ISIL, the truck drivers, themselves, probably not members of ISIL; they're probably just civilians. So we had to figure out a way around that. We're not in this business to kill civilians, we're in this business to stop ISIL -- to defeat ISIL.

So, we spend some time developing some TTPs that I read out earlier -- the leaflets, the low pass. We did some -- I didn't mention in my open, but we did some strafe runs as well -- to kind of shoo people away without harming them. So we had to go through that whole process of one, determining whether or not we felt it was in our best interest to strike these trucks. And then once we determined that, yes, it is in our interest to strike these trucks, how do we go about ensuring that we're able to mitigate the potential of civilian casualties?

And these things take time. So this was an iterative process down here at the very lowest levels, although, at the very highest levels of government. As we discussed this and worked our way through this problem set of, you know, how do we -- how do we get at this oil. Because we know the oil funds more than 50 percent of ISIL's operations. This is something we want to take away from them. That we want -- that we need to take this away from them so that they're -- so they're operations are more difficult to conduct.

So, long -- long answer to, I guess, what was a long process of discussion, of analysis and then finally decision.

...
Click to expand...
- So basically the people driving the trucks for ISISL were not bombed for a long time because it was deemed they were not ISIL

 
Last edited by a moderator:
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Don't miss this tidbit from the NYT this past week:

In Rise of ISIS, No Single Missed Key but Many Strands of Blame...And there were, in fact, more than hints of the group’s plans and potential. A 2012 report by the United States Defense Intelligence Agency was direct: The growing chaos in Syria’s civil war was giving Islamic militants there and in Iraq the space to spread and flourish. The group, it said, could “declare an Islamic state through its union with other terrorist organizations in Iraq and Syria.”

“This particular report, this was one of those nobody wanted to see,” said Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn, who ran the defense agency at the time.

“It was disregarded by the White House,” he said. “It was disregarded by other elements in the intelligence community as a one-off report. Frankly, at the White House, it didn’t meet the narrative.”

...
Click to expand...
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/11/19/world/middleeast/in-rise-of-isis-no-single-missed-key-but-many-strands-of-blame.html?referer=&_r=0

Defense Intelligence Agency: “Establish a Salafist Principality in Syria”, Facilitate Rise of Islamic State “In Order to Isolate the Syrian Regime” Declassified DIA document...The document shows that as early as 2012, U.S. intelligence predicted the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIS), but instead of clearly delineating the group as an enemy, the report envisions the terror group as a U.S. strategic asset.

...The newly released DIA report makes the following summary points concerning “ISI” (in 2012 “Islamic State in Iraq,”) and the soon to emerge ISIS:

  • Al-Qaeda drives the opposition in Syria
  • The West identifies with the opposition
  • The establishment of a nascent Islamic State became a reality only with the rise of the Syrian insurgency (there is no mention of U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq as a catalyst for Islamic State’s rise, which is the contention of innumerable politicians and pundits; see section 4.D. below)
  • The establishment of a “Salafist Principality” in Eastern Syria is “exactly” what the external powers supporting the opposition want (identified as “the West, Gulf Countries, and Turkey”) in order to weaken the Assad government
  • “Safe havens” are suggested in areas conquered by Islamic insurgents along the lines of the Libyan model (which translates to so-called no-fly zones as a first act of ‘humanitarian war’; see 7.B.)
  • Iraq is identified with “Shia expansion” (8.C)
  • A Sunni “Islamic State” could be devastating to “unifying Iraq” and could lead to “the renewing facilitation of terrorist elements from all over the Arab world entering into Iraqi Arena.” (see last non-redacted line in full PDF view.)
...

The following is excerpted from the seven page DIA declassified report (bold-facing is my own):

R 050839Z AUG 12

…

THE GENERAL SITUATION:

A. INTERNALLY, EVENTS ARE TAKING A CLEAR SECTARIAN DIRECTION.

B. THE SALAFIST [sic], THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, AND AQI ARE THE MAJOR FORCES DRIVING THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA.

C. THE WEST, GULF COUNTRIES, AND TURKEY SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION; WHILE RUSSIA, CHINA AND IRAN SUPPORT THE REGIME.

…

3. (C ) Al QAEDA – IRAQ (AQI):… B. AQI SUPPORTED THE SYRIAN OPPOSITION FROM THE BEGINNING, BOTH IDEOLOGICALLY AND THROUGH THE MEDIA…

…

4.D. THERE WAS A REGRESSION OF AQI IN THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF IRAQ DURING THE YEARS OF 2009 AND 2010; HOWEVER, AFTER THE RISE OF THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA, THE RELIGIOUS AND TRIBAL POWERS IN THE REGIONS BEGAN TO SYMPATHIZE WITH THE SECTARIAN UPRISING. THIS (SYMPATHY) APPEARED IN FRIDAY PRAYER SERMONS, WHICH CALLED FOR VOLUNTEERS TO SUPPORT THE SUNNI’S [sic] IN SYRIA.

…

7. C THE FUTURE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE CRISIS:

A. THE REGIME WILL SURVIVE AND HAVE CONTROL OVER SYRIAN TERRITORY.

B. DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT EVENTS INTO PROXY WAR: …OPPOSITION FORCES ARE TRYING TO CONTROL THE EASTERN AREAS (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN IRAQI PROVINCES (MOSUL AND ANBAR), IN ADDITION TO NEIGHBORING TURKISH BORDERS. WESTERN COUNTRIES, THE GULF STATES AND TURKEY ARE SUPPORTING THESE EFFORTS. THIS HYPOTHESIS IS MOST LIKELY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DATA FROM RECENT EVENTS, WHICH WILL HELP PREPARE SAFE HAVENS UNDER INTERNATIONAL SHELTERING, SIMILAR TO WHAT TRANSPIRED IN LIBYA WHEN BENGHAZI WAS CHOSEN AS THE COMMAND CENTER OF THE TEMPORARY GOVERNMENT.

…

8.C- IF THE SITUATION UNRAVELS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO THE OPPOSITION WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME, WHICH IS CONSIDERED THE STRATEGIC DEPTH OF THE SHIA EXPANSION (IRAQ AND IRAN)

8.D.1. …ISI COULD ALSO DECLARE AN ISLAMIC STATE THROUGH ITS UNION WITH OTHER TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA, WHICH WILL CREATE GRAVE DANGER IN REGARDS TO UNIFYING IRAQ AND THE PROTECTION OF ITS TERRITORY.
Click to expand...
http://www.globalresearch.ca/defense-intelligence-agency-create-a-salafist-principality-in-syria-facilitate-rise-of-islamic-state-in-order-to-isolate-the-syrian-regime/5451216
Click to expand...
- Anyone have any comment on this?

 
Analysts Accuse CENTCOM of Covering Up Cooked ISIS Intelligence

Allegations are mounting that senior intelligence officials at Central Command not only skewed findings on the ISIS war to please D.C., but tried to hide what they did.
In July, a group of intelligence analysts at the U.S. military’s Central Command accused their bosses of distorting and selectively editing intelligence reports about the fight against ISIS in order to portray that campaign as more successful than it really was. As a result of those complaints, the Pentagon’s inspector general opened an investigation.

Now, the allegations of misconduct have extended to a possible cover-up, with some analysts accusing the senior intelligence officials at Centcom, Maj. Gen. Steven Grove and his civilian deputy, Gregory Ryckman, of deleting emails and files from computer systems before the inspector general could examine them, three individuals familiar with the investigation told The Daily Beast.

One U.S. official said the alleged activity could amount to obstruction and interference with the inspector general’s investigation, which began last summer. He noted that files relevant to the investigation began to disappear from Centcom computers after the Pentagon watchdog’s staff began their work.

Two sources said that investigators are piecing together a trail of emails and reports to find out what may have been deleted, as well as what officials outside CENTCOM knew about potential manipulation of intelligence.

The analysts themselves have taken steps to preserve material that could be used as evidence, these people said.

All three individuals spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the investigation publicly.

The inspector general has been examining emails and other documents contained on Centcom’s computers and interviewing staff at the command, in Tampa, Florida, multiple sources had said previously.

But the allegations of a cover-up underscored the degree to which intelligence analysts have essentially mounted an insurrection aimed at correcting what they see as unprofessional behavior by their own leaders.

Grove, Ryckman, and other CENTCOM higher-ups are named in the complaint to the inspector general, which is said to be extensive and written in a harsh, critical tone, according to those familiar with its contents.

In interviews, several individuals have described Centcom as having a “toxic climate,” in which Grove in particular created an expectation: Those who toe the official, upbeat line about the fight against ISIS are rewarded, while those who don’t are marginalized.

“The cancer was within the senior level of the intelligence command,” one defense official told The Daily Beast.

A former senior U.S. intelligence official who has worked with Grove described him as hard-charging and demanding of his analysts, but said he had no reason to suspect the general would make up information or fabricate reports.

It was unclear whether the inspector general is looking into allegations that Grove and Ryckman destroyed documents. A spokeswoman for the IG declined to comment beyond an initial statement in September, which acknowledged that an investigation was underway and focused on Centcom’s intelligence directorate, or J2, which Grove runs.

“The investigation will address whether there was any falsification, distortion, delay, suppression, or improper modification of intelligence information; any deviations from appropriate process, procedures, or internal controls regarding the intelligence analysis; and personal accountability for any misconduct or failure to follow established processes,” the statement said.

On Monday, Rep. Devin Nunes, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, sent a letter to the inspector general inquiring whether emails and other documents had been deleted, and requesting copies of any material that may have been found on CENTCOM computers, according to a congressional official.

The New York Times reported last week that military officials had told Congress that some email and documents may have been deleted before they were turned over to investigators, citing a senior congressional official, and said that current and former officials have made similar claims.

At the heart of the analysts’ allegations is what they describe as a persistent effort by Grove and his team to downplay or even change reports that that questioned how much progress a U.S.-led coalition is making in the Obama administration’s stated goal to degrade, destroy, and defeat ISIS.

Draft reports that contained a more pessimistic view, or that questioned the efficacy of hitting certain targets, were sent back to the analysts for more extensive rewriting.

Obama himself weighing in on Sunday about the allegations of doctored intelligence.

“I don’t know what we’ll discover with respect to what was going on in CENTCOM,” Obama said, responding to a report about the investigation in The New York Times. “What I do know is my expectation—which is the highest fidelity to facts, data, the truth.”

The analysts’ concerns about ISIS intelligence being manipulated have their roots in earlier complaints about reports on al Qaeda.

In 2012, U.S. intelligence agencies produced a draft National Intelligence Estimate, which said that Al Qaeda no longer posed a direct threat to the U.S. homeland. That assessment, which is supposed to represent the consensus view of all intelligence agencies, was in keeping with the Obama administration’s argument that the terror network had been dealt a massive blow following the death of Osama bin Laden and sustained efforts by the U.S. to dismantle the group and its affiliates.

But, as The Daily Beast previously reported, some officials, most notably then-director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Gen. Michael Flynn, argued against that reassessment, and had the judgment about al Qaeda no longer posing a direct homeland threat struck from the document.

“Flynn and others at the time made it clear they would not go along with that kind of assessment,” one U.S. intelligence officer who worked on the al Qaeda file told The Daily Beast in 2014. “It was basically: ‘Over my dead body.’”

The analysts now calling foul on doctored ISIS reports have also noted the past experience with al Qaeda assessments in the complaint to the inspector general, said two sources familiar with its contents.

One of those people said that while the al Qaeda history is not a front-and-center issue, it’s part of the background material that goes to support the analysts’ broader argument that some intelligence leaders are hostile to analysis that runs counter to the White House’s public statements.
Click to expand...
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/11/23/analysts-accuse-centcom-of-covering-up-cooked-isis-intelligence.html

- Altering military and intelligence assessments for political aims is a HUGE problem for our country, if true, and as we may recall, along with simply ignoring countervailing intelligence and military information which did not meet preconceived views, it was the primary reasons for the Iraq War. It's scary to think that ths is a continuing problem.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
There's a whole lot of tl;dr in the past few posts. From what I did read, it sounds like the US was too squeamish about civilian casualties and didn't bomb a target they should have. Is that the central idea? If so, I think they need to relax their rules and bomb anyone who even looks like that might be supporting DAESH.

 
Daywalker said:
Daywalker said:
timschochet said:
The Commish said:
Daywalker said:
How is ISIS extracting oil? Isn't that an easy target?
Click to expand...
If we didn't care about the oil, sure.
Click to expand...
Bombing oil fields runs the risk of an environmental catastrophe.
Click to expand...
How does a tanker leave the fields without getting blown up on road?
Click to expand...
Can anyone answer this? Because I keep on hearing how ISIS is moving oil.
Click to expand...
Apparently we started to blow up the trucks in the past two days. :loco:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Report: Russian ground troops arrive in Syria in unprecedented military action The Kuwaiti report adds that Russian forces have already taken over multiple strategic positions and have forced numerous rebel battalions to retreat.In an unprecedented move, Russia has sent ground-troops into the Syrian battlefield in support of Bashar Assad as the dictator struggles to maintain his power in the continuous four-year-long civil war, according to a report by Kuwaiti daily al-Rai.

The report, which has not been substantiated by other sources, claims Russian military forces have been providing cover for T-90 tanks along with military air support which have attacked multiple strategic targets held by rebel forces in Idlib and Latakia.

In September, multiple US officials claimed that Russia had positioned about a half dozen tanks at a Syrian airfield at the center of a military buildup.

One US official said seven Russian T-90 tanks were observed at the airfield near Latakia, a stronghold of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The Kuwaiti report adds that Russian forces have already taken over multiple strategic positions and have forced numerous rebel battalions to retreat. The report did not disclose whether there were Russian army casualties.

Over the last three months, Russia has steadily increased its participation in the Syrian domestic conflict, launching airstrikes from its bases in western Syria as it drops thousands of sorties on enemy targets.

Along with airstrikes, Russia has also increased its naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea along the Syrian coast while it coordinates with Iranian military forces and Hezbollah.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on several past occasions that his country had no intention of sending boots on the ground to participate in the Syrian civil war.

If the report is correct, it could signify a dramatic shift in Russian policy, or merely be a one-time specific action.
Click to expand...
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Russian-ground-troops-arrive-in-Syria-in-unprecedented-military-action-435024

 
Good thing these losers don't want to merge:

A recent suicide bombing in southern Syria shows the rivalry between Al Qaeda and ISIS is more than just a contest to see who can kill the most infidels -- the groups are using classic terror techniques on each other. The Nov. 15 bombing came at a top-level meeting of the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade, a key ISIS militia known for its bloody and vicious hold over parts of the Golan Heights. Six of the group’s top men were killed, including Muhammad "Abu Ali" al-Baridi, the shadowy head of the group who went by the nickname “The Uncle.”

Al Nusra Front, Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, quickly took credit, gloating :pickle: on Twitter about the “heroic” attack.

 
Ditka Butkus said:
We won't have to. Russia will take care of it from here.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/02/middleeast/isis-russian-beheading-claim/index.html

ISIS video claims beheading of Russian spy, threatens Russian people

He then addresses the Russian people, saying, "You will not find peace in your homes. We will kill your sons ... for each son you killed here. And we will destroy your homes for each home you destroyed here."
Click to expand...
Sounds good to me. Let some other country fight these lunatics for awhile. We can provide support and thought and prayers.

 
roadkill1292 said:
STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:
Until Russia conquers the entire region and keeps it for themselves.
Click to expand...
What makes you think they could do it?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure they could but if oil resources get tight I think they are inherently more suited than we are. I think they have historically shown that they are more comfortable with brutality, a clear lack of concern about what other countries think of them, and a greater willingness for their own people to suffer.

I just think they are tougher as a whole and are more willing to suffer the consequences of conquering and holding that territory.

 
Binky The Doormat said:
roadkill1292 said:
STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:
Until Russia conquers the entire region and keeps it for themselves.
Click to expand...
What makes you think they could do it?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure they could but if oil resources get tight I think they are inherently more suited than we are. I think they have historically shown that they are more comfortable with brutality, a clear lack of concern about what other countries think of them, and a greater willingness for their own people to suffer.

I just think they are tougher as a whole and are more willing to suffer the consequences of conquering and holding that territory.
Click to expand...
I agree, but there no reason to physically take control of anything. They can accomplish much the same thing doing what they are currently doing, with much less downside.

 
Binky The Doormat said:
roadkill1292 said:
STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:
Until Russia conquers the entire region and keeps it for themselves.
Click to expand...
What makes you think they could do it?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure they could but if oil resources get tight I think they are inherently more suited than we are. I think they have historically shown that they are more comfortable with brutality, a clear lack of concern about what other countries think of them, and a greater willingness for their own people to suffer.

I just think they are tougher as a whole and are more willing to suffer the consequences of conquering and holding that territory.
Click to expand...
Ruthlessness is not enough. Trying to hold a vast territory full of hostiles would be a disastrous venture.

 
Ditka Butkus said:
We won't have to. Russia will take care of it from here.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/02/middleeast/isis-russian-beheading-claim/index.html
Click to expand...
Doesn't change anything, the guy said he was coerced into becoming a spy probably because of criminal and Islamist ties he had within Russia. So Russia did the ole :shrug: behind the scenes, and will probably say this guy was some innocent citizen caught up in the war. Not an agent, not someone they made go to Syria, but some guy on vacation who walked down the wrong street and got beheaded.

Everyone knows Russia's goal at this point: take out all the Syrian rebels fighting Asaad, then make it a ISIS vs Asaad decision for everyone else. They aren't bombing anymore ISIS targets than they were on November 13th and mostly they are just killing civilians, something the Russians are really good at in their history. Iran is on the ground fighting Asaad opponents, Hezbollah is doing a lot of the same at great cost, and they are only fighting ISIS with Kuds Force when the opportunity presents itself.

Today the UK agreed to join the ISIS bombing campaign, great. Now it's us, the French, and the Brits like it always is. France is already finding it difficult to work with the Russians in Syria, and for all the diplomacy that was allegedly done (we saw photos and a presser), the Russians are back to bombing the Turkmen and the Free Syrian Army. Sure they'll drop a stray bomb or two near an ISIS target on a bombing run to keep face, then they are off to the true mission of wiping out Asaad's enemies (and scores and scores of civilians in the process).

Now if they go after Mother Russia, then we might see a true change in approach in Syria. But even then the Russians know their bread is buttered by the Iranians, and that through Iran they gain a bigger foothold in the Middle East. ISIS isn't going to be their primary target until the Iranians' objectives in Syria are met.

 
jonessed said:
Binky The Doormat said:
roadkill1292 said:
STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:
Until Russia conquers the entire region and keeps it for themselves.
Click to expand...
What makes you think they could do it?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure they could but if oil resources get tight I think they are inherently more suited than we are. I think they have historically shown that they are more comfortable with brutality, a clear lack of concern about what other countries think of them, and a greater willingness for their own people to suffer.

I just think they are tougher as a whole and are more willing to suffer the consequences of conquering and holding that territory.
Click to expand...
I agree, but there no reason to physically take control of anything. They can accomplish much the same thing doing what they are currently doing, with much less downside.
Click to expand...
Except when your favorite puppet regime gets replaced.
 
Doctor Detroit said:
Ditka Butkus said:
We won't have to. Russia will take care of it from here.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/02/middleeast/isis-russian-beheading-claim/index.html
Click to expand...
Doesn't change anything, the guy said he was coerced into becoming a spy probably because of criminal and Islamist ties he had within Russia. So Russia did the ole :shrug: behind the scenes, and will probably say this guy was some innocent citizen caught up in the war. Not an agent, not someone they made go to Syria, but some guy on vacation who walked down the wrong street and got beheaded.

Everyone knows Russia's goal at this point: take out all the Syrian rebels fighting Asaad, then make it a ISIS vs Asaad decision for everyone else. They aren't bombing anymore ISIS targets than they were on November 13th and mostly they are just killing civilians, something the Russians are really good at in their history. Iran is on the ground fighting Asaad opponents, Hezbollah is doing a lot of the same at great cost, and they are only fighting ISIS with Kuds Force when the opportunity presents itself.

Today the UK agreed to join the ISIS bombing campaign, great. Now it's us, the French, and the Brits like it always is. France is already finding it difficult to work with the Russians in Syria, and for all the diplomacy that was allegedly done (we saw photos and a presser), the Russians are back to bombing the Turkmen and the Free Syrian Army. Sure they'll drop a stray bomb or two near an ISIS target on a bombing run to keep face, then they are off to the true mission of wiping out Asaad's enemies (and scores and scores of civilians in the process).

Now if they go after Mother Russia, then we might see a true change in approach in Syria. But even then the Russians know their bread is buttered by the Iranians, and that through Iran they gain a bigger foothold in the Middle East. ISIS isn't going to be their primary target until the Iranians' objectives in Syria are met.
Click to expand...
Great write up thanks. Whats the rationale behind the Iran-Russia alliance? Is it just oil? Or something else?

 
Native said:
Doctor Detroit said:
Ditka Butkus said:
We won't have to. Russia will take care of it from here.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/02/middleeast/isis-russian-beheading-claim/index.html
Click to expand...
Doesn't change anything, the guy said he was coerced into becoming a spy probably because of criminal and Islamist ties he had within Russia. So Russia did the ole :shrug: behind the scenes, and will probably say this guy was some innocent citizen caught up in the war. Not an agent, not someone they made go to Syria, but some guy on vacation who walked down the wrong street and got beheaded.

Everyone knows Russia's goal at this point: take out all the Syrian rebels fighting Asaad, then make it a ISIS vs Asaad decision for everyone else. They aren't bombing anymore ISIS targets than they were on November 13th and mostly they are just killing civilians, something the Russians are really good at in their history. Iran is on the ground fighting Asaad opponents, Hezbollah is doing a lot of the same at great cost, and they are only fighting ISIS with Kuds Force when the opportunity presents itself.

Today the UK agreed to join the ISIS bombing campaign, great. Now it's us, the French, and the Brits like it always is. France is already finding it difficult to work with the Russians in Syria, and for all the diplomacy that was allegedly done (we saw photos and a presser), the Russians are back to bombing the Turkmen and the Free Syrian Army. Sure they'll drop a stray bomb or two near an ISIS target on a bombing run to keep face, then they are off to the true mission of wiping out Asaad's enemies (and scores and scores of civilians in the process).

Now if they go after Mother Russia, then we might see a true change in approach in Syria. But even then the Russians know their bread is buttered by the Iranians, and that through Iran they gain a bigger foothold in the Middle East. ISIS isn't going to be their primary target until the Iranians' objectives in Syria are met.
Click to expand...
Great write up thanks. Whats the rationale behind the Iran-Russia alliance? Is it just oil? Or something else?
Click to expand...
It is a relationship of mutual interest. Caspian Sea commerce and oil reserves are built in cooperations for starters. They both have a Sunni Muslim problem for another, as Iran's main goal is to be the main power broker in the Middle East while being surrounded by people and nations mostly unfriendly to them. Since they are hostile to the West some consideration for the Russian influence, troops, and weaponry allows them some creative resources to employ in Syria, which they absolutely need to stabilize as a Shi'a Muslim safe zone going forward.

But make no mistake, Iran doesn't trust Russia any more than we do. They've had hot and cold relationships with the Russians for centuries and they were our main ally in the region for decades because they feared Soviet ambitions in the Caspian Sea region, and for land grabs by the Soviet Union after both world wars.

To me this is Iran playing Russia as a means to an end, not Russia playing Iran. If Asaad is saved the Syrians could turn their backs to Russia the day after, but they'd never turn on the Iranians. People don't give Iran enough credit, they really are a proactive and industrious people.

 
We know who to arm sbd support to destroy ISIS. The problem is what happens after that. It's such a cluster with so many crossed wires.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

GordonGekko
How NYC Bodega Clerk Jose Alba's "Self Defense" Became Political Persecution ( 7/10/22 2:12 PST)
2
Replies
97
Views
4K
parasaurolophus
parasaurolophus
GordonGekko
OP/ED "The Trouble With Socialism Is That Eventually You Run Out Of Other People's Money." (4/22/22 21:05PST)
2 3
Replies
138
Views
6K
Toby2ElectricBugaloo
T
GordonGekko
Mike Rowe Evaluates America's Workforce: "Your Choice Isn’t College Or Oblivion" ( 7/16/22 18:28 PST )
Replies
5
Views
859
bcat01
B

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top