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When Will Internal Combustion Engine Cars Account For Less Than 5% Of New Car Sales In The US? (1 Viewer)

When Will Internal Combustion Engine Cars Account For Less Than 5% Of New Car Sales In The US?


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Joe Bryant

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Staff member
First thing. Thanks for helping us keep politics out of the FFA. I know this topic is in the gray area but please keep all the discussion well on the side of not being political.

Question that was brought up in the Tesla thread that I thought might make a good poll.

When Will Internal Combustion Engine Cars Account For Less Than 5% Of New Car Sales In The US?
 
It seems far away, like 50+ years. EV vehicles are still too expensive, and the oil industry is gonna fight it tooth and nail.

I hope I'm wrong. TBH, I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.
 
It seems far away, like 50+ years. EV vehicles are still too expensive, and the oil industry is gonna fight it tooth and nail.

I hope I'm wrong. TBH, I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.
Until the oil companies get in bed with the mining companies.
 
“Less than 5%” is a very low bar to get under. Total US sales are around 15M per year, so you’re talking about getting under 750k a year (assuming total stats constant). For comparison Ford sold over 900k F150s alone in 2018 (so prior to the F150 lightning). It may never get that low.

Now if that number were 50%, were 10-15 years away from that. Meaning that we’re still 30 years away from half the vehicles on the actual roads being EVs.
 
It seems far away, like 50+ years. EV vehicles are still too expensive, and the oil industry is gonna fight it tooth and nail.

I hope I'm wrong. TBH, I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.
Until the oil companies get in bed with the mining companies.
Maybe, but the rare earth minerals are in places not really occupied by oil companies, at least not yet. I guess a few OPEC countries are in sub-Saharan Africa and S America though.
 
It seems far away, like 50+ years. EV vehicles are still too expensive, and the oil industry is gonna fight it tooth and nail.

I hope I'm wrong. TBH, I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.
Until the oil companies get in bed with the mining companies.

I have worked for big oil now for quite a few years and we are powerless to control the industry. The company i work for has seen massive layoffs of 30k-50k(25-40% of the workforce) employees on 3 separate occasions. Everyone thinks we are all powerful when the gas prices goes up, but then people forget about us when we struggle.

As for your second point, they are forcing us to take 20% of our bonus to be green initiatives every year now. The company i work for has seen the writing on the wall and is starting to invest heavily in non-oilfield related business. At least that is what upper management is telling us. We will see if they follow through on that.

My dad retired from the coal mines(engineering/management) last year. It was tough at the end, he worked for 3 different companies in 3 different states in the last 5 years of his career due to mines shutting down. I am only 41, I have an easy 22 years of working left and I worry that I will need to switch industries. I have worked for the same company since I have graduated, get 5 weeks of vacation and tons of other perks. But the longer I am in oil the tougher it will be to change. I do not want to have my career end up like my dad's when i am in my 60's.
 
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I don't have time for an in depth answer right now but I'd vote never if I could. The military alone won't ever get off internal combustion until we make the leap to nuclear for vehicles as small as an ATV. I'll revisit with a better response later.
 
I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.

Not really the topic of the thread, but:

I think both the transition to electric vehicles and the transition to autonomous vehicles will happen fairly suddenly. From "not really on the horizon" to "ubiquitous" within a 10-15 time frame.
I can't think of anything I want less than autonomous vehicle.......
 
It seems far away, like 50+ years. EV vehicles are still too expensive, and the oil industry is gonna fight it tooth and nail.

I hope I'm wrong. TBH, I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.
Until the oil companies get in bed with the mining companies.

I have worked for big oil now for quite a few years and we are powerless to control the industry. The company i work for has seen massive layoffs of 30k-50k(25-40% of the workforce) employees on 3 separate occasions. Everyone thinks we are all powerful when the gas prices goes up, but then people forget about us when we struggle.

As for your second point, they are forcing us to take 20% of our bonus to be green initiatives every year now. The company i work for has seen the writing on the wall and is starting to invest heavily in non-oilfield related business. At least that is what upper management is telling us. We will see if they follow through on that.

My dad retired from the coal mines(engineering/management) last year. It was tough at the end, he worked for 3 different companies in 3 different states in the last 5 years of his career due to mines shutting down. I am only 41, I have an easy 22 years of working left and I worry that I will need to switch industries. I have worked for the same company since I have graduated, get 5 weeks of vacation and tons of other perks. But the longer I am in oil the tougher it will be to change. I do not want to have my career end up like my dad's when i am in my 60's.
I was thinking in terms of just buying a stake in a company.

Totally get your point about your father. My father was a mechanic on a natural gas pipeline until his body gave out at 62.
 
I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.

Not really the topic of the thread, but:

I think both the transition to electric vehicles and the transition to autonomous vehicles will happen fairly suddenly. From "not really on the horizon" to "ubiquitous" within a 10-15 time frame.
I can't think off anything I want less than autonomous vehicle.......
I disagree, I mean assuming it's safe.

I'd love to see a car where I relax and read my emails, play on xbox or something instead of white-knuckling it through another rush hour. That is a long way off, but I would love that.
 
I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.

Not really the topic of the thread, but:

I think both the transition to electric vehicles and the transition to autonomous vehicles will happen fairly suddenly. From "not really on the horizon" to "ubiquitous" within a 10-15 time frame.
I can't think off anything I want less than autonomous vehicle.......
I disagree, I mean assuming it's safe.

I'd love to see a car where I relax and read my emails, play on xbox or something instead of white-knuckling it through another rush hour. That is a long way off, but I would love that.
This will vary greatly but I don't have a white knuckle commute - in fact its a long drive 43 miles but its low traffic 99.9% of the time..... If I can't set the cruise at 85-90 I'll be hella pissed :lol:
 
I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.

Not really the topic of the thread, but:

I think both the transition to electric vehicles and the transition to autonomous vehicles will happen fairly suddenly. From "not really on the horizon" to "ubiquitous" within a 10-15 time frame.
I can't think off anything I want less than autonomous vehicle.......
I disagree, I mean assuming it's safe.

I'd love to see a car where I relax and read my emails, play on xbox or something instead of white-knuckling it through another rush hour. That is a long way off, but I would love that.
It is pretty close to this now on the freeway, a bit herky jerky with traffic. If there is not much traffic you can pretty much let the car do everything.

We'll see they can do to close the last like say 15% of the gap of total self driving.
 
I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.

Not really the topic of the thread, but:

I think both the transition to electric vehicles and the transition to autonomous vehicles will happen fairly suddenly. From "not really on the horizon" to "ubiquitous" within a 10-15 time frame.
I can't think off anything I want less than autonomous vehicle.......
I disagree, I mean assuming it's safe.

I'd love to see a car where I relax and read my emails, play on xbox or something instead of white-knuckling it through another rush hour. That is a long way off, but I would love that.
It is pretty close to this now on the freeway, a bit herky jerky with traffic. If there is not much traffic you can pretty much let the car do everything.

We'll see they can do to close the last like say 15% of the gap of total self driving.
This is serious question - does it follow posted speed limits? Or does it calculate based on current traffic and or won't speed? But you still need to pay attention now right? The accidents that have happened are because people just completely zoned out and didn't catch on to the potential issue?

I admit I don't know enough about it but I like driving for the most part :shrug:
 
I went with 2055 but I don’t know, and I work in automotive. My opinion the tech is still in its infancy, but i would expect an exponential surge at some point

a lot will come down to infrastructure and fast charge time

Also curious to see impacts on heavy freight, I don’t follow that sector as closely but gonna need them to adopt it as well and I don’t know how close we are to making EV effective for semis
 
With all the funding going into next generation battery technology right now I think we'll see a very rapid change once the batteries are cheaper and more energy dense. Once that happens (5 years max?) the change will be rapid. Kind of like the move from flip phones to smart phones once the battery tech could support them. The public charging infrastructure should also be vastly improved by that point.
 
I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.

Not really the topic of the thread, but:

I think both the transition to electric vehicles and the transition to autonomous vehicles will happen fairly suddenly. From "not really on the horizon" to "ubiquitous" within a 10-15 time frame.
I can't think off anything I want less than autonomous vehicle.......
I disagree, I mean assuming it's safe.

I'd love to see a car where I relax and read my emails, play on xbox or something instead of white-knuckling it through another rush hour. That is a long way off, but I would love that.
It is pretty close to this now on the freeway, a bit herky jerky with traffic. If there is not much traffic you can pretty much let the car do everything.

We'll see they can do to close the last like say 15% of the gap of total self driving.
This is serious question - does it follow posted speed limits? Or does it calculate based on current traffic and or won't speed? But you still need to pay attention now right? The accidents that have happened are because people just completely zoned out and didn't catch on to the potential issue?

I admit I don't know enough about it but I like driving for the most part :shrug:
For speed limits my car sets it at the posted limit but you can scroll up or down and set the speed that way. You also set the follow distance for when it’s heavy traffic.

You still need to pay attention for sure and there are various things they do to make sure that is happening.

It’s also weird to be not driving and it is still not perfect when there are odd lanes, lots of merging, etc.

I still drive most of time but on stretches of freeway that I know very well and there aren’t a ton of cars around it can pretty much do its thing just fine. For instance, if I am up very early and say driving to golf or the something I will eat a breakfast sandwich and let it do it’s thing for stretches with very minimal interaction.
 
I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.

Not really the topic of the thread, but:

I think both the transition to electric vehicles and the transition to autonomous vehicles will happen fairly suddenly. From "not really on the horizon" to "ubiquitous" within a 10-15 time frame.
I can't think off anything I want less than autonomous vehicle.......
I disagree, I mean assuming it's safe.

I'd love to see a car where I relax and read my emails, play on xbox or something instead of white-knuckling it through another rush hour. That is a long way off, but I would love that.
It is pretty close to this now on the freeway, a bit herky jerky with traffic. If there is not much traffic you can pretty much let the car do everything.

We'll see they can do to close the last like say 15% of the gap of total self driving.
This is serious question - does it follow posted speed limits? Or does it calculate based on current traffic and or won't speed? But you still need to pay attention now right? The accidents that have happened are because people just completely zoned out and didn't catch on to the potential issue?

I admit I don't know enough about it but I like driving for the most part :shrug:

I don't know the answer. Haven't really seen anyone talking about it. MPH limits are set based on a combo of safety and efficiency (on the highway). I think at some point the tech will be there to safely support much higher MPH than we currently allow, but I think the energy consumption part will keep it from being as high as I'd like. I'll probably be annoyed if they governor these things out at the exact speed limit that we have today.
 
I don't think that EV is "better" in the long run. I think it is a good supplement and should be treated as such rather than a forced take over. As with almost everything.......moderation is key. Why not strive for a 50-50 mix and leave it at that? I think that is the optimum for enviornmental benefits as it doesn't tax any one resource and stretches them out significantly.

That will never happen until the infrastructure is in place for the EV to be that prevalent. That is the first step to making a significant turn in the percentages. But again, why push for a take over? Moderation is key to it all.
 
I don't think that EV is "better" in the long run. I think it is a good supplement and should be treated as such rather than a forced take over. As with almost everything.......moderation is key. Why not strive for a 50-50 mix and leave it at that? I think that is the optimum for enviornmental benefits as it doesn't tax any one resource and stretches them out significantly.

That will never happen until the infrastructure is in place for the EV to be that prevalent. That is the first step to making a significant turn in the percentages. But again, why push for a take over? Moderation is key to it all.
Ideally and it’s way off with magnitudes of tech leap needed…you have a car that can charge off of some form of energy that is renewable and the car isn’t polluting as it runs.

Current EV’s are a starting point.
 
I don't think that EV is "better" in the long run. I think it is a good supplement and should be treated as such rather than a forced take over. As with almost everything.......moderation is key. Why not strive for a 50-50 mix and leave it at that? I think that is the optimum for enviornmental benefits as it doesn't tax any one resource and stretches them out significantly.

That will never happen until the infrastructure is in place for the EV to be that prevalent. That is the first step to making a significant turn in the percentages. But again, why push for a take over? Moderation is key to it all.
Nothing should be forced. EV's will naturally take over (or not) once they are a superior overall product. Just like anything else.
 
I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.

Not really the topic of the thread, but:

I think both the transition to electric vehicles and the transition to autonomous vehicles will happen fairly suddenly. From "not really on the horizon" to "ubiquitous" within a 10-15 time frame.
I can't think off anything I want less than autonomous vehicle.......
I disagree, I mean assuming it's safe.

I'd love to see a car where I relax and read my emails, play on xbox or something instead of white-knuckling it through another rush hour. That is a long way off, but I would love that.
Absolutely hate autonomous cars. Makes me think of the fat people in Wall E how everything is taken care of for them so they don't have to think.
 
For sure, autonomous driving cars are interesting too. But for this one, let's keep the focus when ICE cars will be less than 5% of US Sales.
 
Absolutely hate autonomous cars. Makes me think of the fat people in Wall E how everything is taken care of for them so they don't have to ththink.
What if autonomous cars can reduce the 46,000 deaths in auto accidents by 50%?
This, except change that number to something more like 95%. At some point, it's going to be illegal for people to operate their own vehicles, and folks will find it amazing that it was ever allowed. (I don't expect to live to see that, but I feel very confident about it.)
 
My long winded response...I work for a company that is dropping hundreds of millions of dollars into onsite battery technology, EV's and overall responding to the market demands for cleaner sources of energy. I giggle a bit at that because for every battery powered station we put on a jobsite, a 56kw generator goes with it to recharge it every day or two. It does cut down on the amount of diesel being used but the cost/benefit is nowhere near were it actually makes sense. I digress.

We have invested in 700 Ford Lightnings for our sales force, about 2 years ago. We still have about half that are unallocated because acceptance by the field has been less than anticipated. They get less than the advertised 200 mile range on a charge. Pulling anything behind it drops range to 150ish miles which for an equipment rental salesman, that's a pretty frequent occurrence. Factor in southern heat and that range drops further to 120-130ish miles. The extreme cold also has an adverse effect on the battery charge. As mentioned upthread, there are few places to charge outside of the big cities that are pushing this agenda which encompasses 85% of our territory in the US. We don't even bother sending them to Canada.

We've recently invest in 10 OTR (Over The Road) tractor trailers to put into CA. They cost $400k each and have a range of 150 miles. Because the batteries are so heavy, the amount they can haul is somewhat less than a typical load but I'm not well versed enough to know by how much. The kicker with these is every two days that have to sit for a complete 8 hour charge in order to preserve battery integrity. If you don't, your battery starts to degrade and replacing those are probably $10k or more but again, I really don't know. Battery replacement on a 5k electric forklift is $6k so that's what I'm basing things on, it's probably more than $10k. For trucks that sole purpose is delivery of equipment, 150 miles can sometimes be a one way trip. Again, the cost benefit is just not there.

Also mentioned upthread, the tech of today is not the tech of tomorrow. I agree but, all of these batteries are made from materials that are 1.) located in a few spots in the world, 2.) have a very definitive, limited supply and 3.) we (US) has little to no control over. Just finishing up Cobalt Red which outlines how we get about 3/4's of our Cobalt from the Congo, good read if you are interested. It's not sustainable and not only that, the runway is short. By 2035 we're going to be redlining our supply of a lot of these materials, that's 12 years. If you think battery tech or some new tech will come along by then, you have more faith than I do. Hope is not a strategy and that's where we are right now. In order to make the change we all want EV's to make, there needs to be a massive increase of them worldwide, by 100 million or more. Per this chart, there were 10 million EV's on the road in 2020. Lets be optimistic and bump that to 12 million for 2023, we're 88 million short. EV is not the solution, it's part of the answer but not being forced down our throats and not in the short time span we are talking about. For the major car companies to say they will only be producing EV's by 2030, good luck. We'll be out of material before then.

I've never understood the leap from combustion straight to EV. What happened to hybrid technology? Why is the most sensible next step in this evolution simply being dismissed and we hop over it to a new-ish tech that hasn't really been pushed to scale yet? Easy enough to go off the deep end when you start asking those kind of questions so I'll leave it there. I don't hate EV's, they have their place but the agenda being forced upon us doesn't make sense to me and is absolutely not sustainable with current tech. Moving to hybrid and then eventually to a better EV tech makes 100% more sense to me than what we are doing today.

...steps off soapbox

PS - the power grid, as it stands today, can’t accept 100 million EV’s
 
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In Sweden, where the price of gas is over $7/gallon:

>>Combustion-only powertrains’ (petrol, diesel) share in December fell to a record low of 18.7%, compared to 32.3% in December 2021.<<

 
I've never understood the leap from combustion straight to EV. What happened to hybrid technology? Why is the most sensible next step in this evolution simply being dismissed and we hop over it to a new-ish tech that hasn't really been pushed to scale yet? Easy enough to go off the deep end when you start asking those kind of questions so I'll leave it there. I don't hate EV's, they have their place but the agenda being forced upon us doesn't make sense to me and is absolutely not sustainable with current tech. Moving to hybrid and then eventually to a better EV tech makes 100% more sense to me than what we are doing today.

...steps off soapbox

PS - the power grid, as it stands today, can’t accept 100 million EV’s
Because with hybrid the maintenance reduction aspect of an EV is negated. In fact it may be the worst of both worlds. Complex emissions control systems + complex BMS systems? Catalytic converters + batteries? The rare earth problem is amplified. No thanks.
 
My long winded response...I work for a company that is dropping hundreds of millions of dollars into onsite battery technology, EV's and overall responding to the market demands for cleaner sources of energy. I giggle a bit at that because for every battery powered station we put on a jobsite, a 56kw generator goes with it to recharge it every day or two. It does cut down on the amount of diesel being used but the cost/benefit is nowhere near were it actually makes sense. I digress.

We have invested in 700 Ford Lightnings for our sales force, about 2 years ago. We still have about half that are unallocated because acceptance by the field has been less than anticipated. They get less than the advertised 200 mile range on a charge. Pulling anything behind it drops range to 150ish miles which for an equipment rental salesman, that's a pretty frequent occurrence. Factor in southern heat and that range drops further to 120-130ish miles. The extreme cold also has an adverse effect on the battery charge. As mentioned upthread, there are few places to charge outside of the big cities that are pushing this agenda which encompasses 85% of our territory in the US. We don't even bother sending them to Canada.

We've recently invest in 10 OTR (Over The Road) tractor trailers to put into CA. They cost $400k each and have a range of 150 miles. Because the batteries are so heavy, the amount they can haul is somewhat less than a typical load but I'm not well versed enough to know by how much. The kicker with these is every two days that have to sit for a complete 8 hour charge in order to preserve battery integrity. If you don't, your battery starts to degrade and replacing those are probably $10k or more but again, I really don't know. Battery replacement on a 5k electric forklift is $6k so that's what I'm basing things on, it's probably more than $10k. For trucks that sole purpose is delivery of equipment, 150 miles can sometimes be a one way trip. Again, the cost benefit is just not there.

Also mentioned upthread, the tech of today is not the tech of tomorrow. I agree but, all of these batteries are made from materials that are 1.) located in a few spots in the world, 2.) have a very definitive, limited supply and 3.) we (US) has little to no control over. Just finishing up Cobalt Red which outlines how we get about 3/4's of our Cobalt from the Congo, good read if you are interested. It's not sustainable and not only that, the runway is short. By 2035 we're going to be redlining our supply of a lot of these materials, that's 12 years. If you think battery tech or some new tech will come along by then, you have more faith than I do. Hope is not a strategy and that's where we are right now. In order to make the change we all want EV's to make, there needs to be a massive increase of them worldwide, by 100 million or more. Per this chart, there were 10 million EV's on the road in 2020. Lets be optimistic and bump that to 12 million for 2023, we're 88 million short. EV is not the solution, it's part of the answer but not being forced down our throats and not in the short time span we are talking about. For the major car companies to say they will only be producing EV's by 2030, good luck. We'll be out of material before then.

I've never understood the leap from combustion straight to EV. What happened to hybrid technology? Why is the most sensible next step in this evolution simply being dismissed and we hop over it to a new-ish tech that hasn't really been pushed to scale yet? Easy enough to go off the deep end when you start asking those kind of questions so I'll leave it there. I don't hate EV's, they have their place but the agenda being forced upon us doesn't make sense to me and is absolutely not sustainable with current tech. Moving to hybrid and then eventually to a better EV tech makes 100% more sense to me than what we are doing today.

...steps off soapbox

PS - the power grid, as it stands today, can’t accept 100 million EV’s

The response to your post needs broken down into a few different parts.

1. There are many mineral deposits that are currently not being mined, just like they were screaming peak oil in the 70's we are not at peak minerals by a long shot.

2. Battery technology will get better in the heat/cold.

3. The power grid is only maxed during the day, there is a massive amount of excess capacity at night when most people will charge.
 
It seems far away, like 50+ years. EV vehicles are still too expensive
:no:

While the upfront cost is more, that is offset with tax credits, and couple that with the cheaper fuel and maintenance and the cost difference is negligible at best
I ask this question because I honestly don't know: how much do the replacement batteries cost? And when do they need to be replaced?
 
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I've never understood the leap from combustion straight to EV. What happened to hybrid technology? Why is the most sensible next step in this evolution simply being dismissed and we hop over it to a new-ish tech that hasn't really been pushed to scale yet?

Interesting as I've thought the same.
 
I ask this question because I honestly don't know: how much to the replacement batteries cost? And when do they need to be replaced?
Batteries are covered under warranty for 100K miles (at least on my new Bolt). Replacement cost is ridiculous I think, but I don't expect to have to replace it, just as I wouldn't expect to replace a transmission or engine in a similarly priced ICE vehicle
 
I ask this question because I honestly don't know: how much to the replacement batteries cost? And when do they need to be replaced?
Batteries are covered under warranty for 100K miles (at least on my new Bolt). Replacement cost is ridiculous I think, but I don't expect to have to replace it, just as I wouldn't expect to replace a transmission or engine in a similarly priced ICE vehicle
Ok at 105K miles transmission vs batteries ball park pricing? I know transmission side - I don't know battery side......
 
2035 although I believe 2040 is the best answer.(but not an option)

Thank you.

Do we know what the % is today for ICE engine car sales in the US?

Can you elaborate how and why you think it'll go from that number to 5% in 17 years?
 
I ask this question because I honestly don't know: how much to the replacement batteries cost? And when do they need to be replaced?
Batteries are covered under warranty for 100K miles (at least on my new Bolt). Replacement cost is ridiculous I think, but I don't expect to have to replace it, just as I wouldn't expect to replace a transmission or engine in a similarly priced ICE vehicle
Ok at 105K miles transmission vs batteries ball park pricing? I know transmission side - I don't know battery side......
I have seen costs from 5K - 20K depending on battery pack
 

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