Where to draft Rob Gronkowski in 2012? (2 Viewers)

[Hudepohl]

I am trying to decide my approach next year. Some pretty interesting reading...http://bleacherreport.com/articles/990370-fantasy-football-where-should-you-draft-rob-gronkowski-in-2012

New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski has become this year's Arian Foster for fantasy football, emerging seemingly out of nowhere and carrying teams into the playoffs.Gronkowski has been shattering tight end records through out his 2011 season campaign, leaving many fantasy players and analysts to ponder just where to draft the Patriot come next season? Well, you'd be a fool to pass on him if he fell to the early second round.Michael Vick was touted as a must-draft in the first round by many analysts and Web sites heading into draft time this season and in many standard league scoring, Gronk has outperformed the Philadelphia quarterback this year.The second-year player out of the University of Arizona has 15 touchdowns with two games left to play, as well as almost 1,200 yards receiving. By the end of this season, barring any miracles, he will have outperformed Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, Hakeem Nicks and Vincent Jackson in both statistical categories.Those names are No. 1 wide receivers on their respective teams, and it's time people realized that though Gronk plays tight end, he's also New England's No. 1 guy in the passing game.Yes, Wes Welker technically occupies that title and continues to produce consistent numbers each year, but the No. 1 Patriot and one of the first 20 guys taken in your draft next season should be Gronkowski.He'll be a name many will look at and have gut feelings against him due to the position he plays, the offense he plays in that "spreads the ball around" and be a surefire candidate to make many "most likely to regress" columns next year, but don't buy into that.Don't be taken by the fact he's in New England or that he's a tight end, he's the go-to guy on one of the best offenses in the NFL and even if he doesn't shatter records again next season, he'll still be one of the best receiving options in all of fantasy.

http://rosterwatch.com/?p=1435

Rob Gronkowski Making Case to be 2012 First Round Fantasy Draft PickAlex Dunlap, Rosterwatch.comWhy not? Just because he is a Tight End? That is why you should.Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski has averaged a position-high 15.3 fantasy points a game in 2011. In second place is Saints TE Jimmy Graham with a very, very sick average of 12.2. After that, you get down to the 3rd ranked TE in Tony Gonzalez at 9.5 points.He averages more fantasy points per game in standard leagues than any WR in the league today.He has Tom Brady throwing him the ball, and has forced himself into an overly productive offensive system as an unlikely receiving centerpiece.Fantasy Football players need to understand that winning in fantasy football is not about scoring the most points. It is about increasing your probability of winning. Having the league’s most productive receiver in your TE slot increases your probability of winning more than having the league’s most productive receiver in you WR slot. The reason is simple. Aside from one other player (Jimmy Graham) you are starting out with at least a 5 point advantage at that position. No one is close.To gain a five-point plus advantage from your WR slot, you would need to have a player like Calvin Johnson (14.2 FPG) and be facing a player like Pierre Garcon (9.3 FPG) to get as lopsided a mismatch as Gronkowski has against all but one TE in the league. That is huge.

 

[jurb26]

Round 3, that's where I would always start drafting the elite TEs.

 

[Ballstein]

ROUND 2....he is considered A WR at this point.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Round 3, that's where I would always start drafting the elite TEs.

3.01-3.03 seems likely. If you start RB-WR or if you're going upside down WR-WR, taking Gronk (or Graham for that matter) gives a significant edgeLate 2 seems like too much risk - unless you think he's going to set the yards and TDs record every year.

 

[eakfootball]

Early 2

 

[dwyadog]

Probably some risk to it and it depends on scoring of course but I can easily see Gronk going in the second, as part of an overall strategy or in the first round in leagues that favor te's in scoring. Heck I have gronk and hernandez in an 8 keeper league and I'm mulling over keeping both over wr's like a steve johnson, this is in a mandatory te-league with the ability to flex another te, ppr. I'm hoping perhaps all the focus on gronk might let hernandez slip down but something tells me this playoff run wont let that happen.

 

[dwyadog]

" unless you think he's going to set the yards and TDs record every year. "

As has been discussed in the numerous other Gronk threads, he doesnt need to set the record every year to give a decided advantage. IF one were to take Gronk in the second round and he put up say 2 td's instead of 17 (18 total) he still would have been a good investment out of a mando-te spot and while I don't feel like pulling vbd numbers, even at that heavily reduced td rate his value would still be above most players taken in the 2nd round in mando-te leagues. Also I feel his production is a surer bet than many of the players taken say 14-24.

 

[Hudepohl]

I think he's a lock for top 5-10 ***WR*** stats (again) next year.

In my league Calvin was #1, Gronk was #2. Only 1.5 pts/game separated them.

I think if you want him you have to draft him in round 2. Maybe even late round 1 in TE mandatory leagues.

 

[dcgangstas]

If you want the Gronk, you better be prepared to spend an early round 2 pick.

 

[dickey moe]

In a Keep two league I'm keeping Gronk instead of Andre Johnson (other keeper is Ray Rice).

So yeah, he's a 2nd round pick in my book.

 

[Multiple Scores]

I'll have to pass, it will end up a case of chasing points. I owned gronk or graham in all redrafts this year.

As of this moment I'm looking at Vernon and Hernandez but this likely changes.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

If he was sure to do it again in 2012, you could make a strong argument for late first round.. He put up top 12 #'s this season, and the drop off at TE from RG, is going to be a lot steeper than the drop off at other positions...

That being said, I'm certainly not the one.. I'll take a TE in the 3rd or later..

Congrats to those who drafted RG this season.. Heck of a deal you scooped..

 

[Cecil_Pooples]

Looks like some still stuck in the archaic ages.

Gronk won't make it to Round 3.

At least you have 8 months to clean up your strategy. Or you can draft the likes of Mendenhall, Helu, Murray, S-Jax, Lynch, Beanie, throw in every other RB flavor of the week... and lose again.

I prefer winning.

 

[Hudepohl]

Looks like some still stuck in the archaic ages.Gronk won't make it to Round 3.At least you have 8 months to clean up your strategy. Or you can draft the likes of Mendenhall, Helu, Murray, S-Jax etc... and lose again.I prefer winning.

This is my kind of thinking as well. I think we have seen a major change in the NFL the last 2 years to a more "arena football" like league where passing is supreme.So while all QBs get a boost the players who really are elite now are these kind of TEs that are in effect a WR.The day of the elite all purpose RB who isn't in a RBBC are behind us (with the very rare exception of players like Rice who are locked in the early first round because of this). I agree that TEs such as Gronkowski are the players to target. What round that target is in looks like the 2nd. Or maybe even the 1st depending on the league.

 

[jurb26]

Looks like some still stuck in the archaic ages.Gronk won't make it to Round 3.At least you have 8 months to clean up your strategy. Or you can draft the likes of Mendenhall, Helu, Murray, S-Jax, Lynch, Beanie, throw in every other RB flavor of the week... and lose again.I prefer winning.

I prefer winning. I did so with by cleaning up on RBs and drafting Petigrew and F. Davis this past year. There is more than one way to win.

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

Personally, I'm on board with the high-to-mid 2nd round ranking of Gronk as of RIGHT NOW, but let's assume McDaniels brings Brandon Lloyd to the Pats – does that affect Gronk's ranking for anyone else?

I could see Lloyd filling that 2007 Randy Moss role for McDaniels and we all know he's made Lloyd a focal point of his offenses the past couple seasons. An argument could be made that Gronk's big season came, in part, because Ocho Cinco didn't pan out... If NE adds a WR like Lloyd to the mix I think it gets pretty risky taking Gronk before the early 3rd round. In that scenario I'll probably hold out and just take Graham instead.

 

[beto]

Gronk/Graham reminds me of Shannon Sharpe and Ben Coates back in the day.

 

[dwyadog]

It will be interesting if the pats land lloyd. It could hurt Gronk, perhaps it most likely will but even with lloyd there, the pats were around 400 pass completions this year. Hard to imagine that goes down if much at all, still see gronk getting 80+ of those. One could also look at hernandez as a threat, hernandez averaged more targets per game -this- year. One could also say that lloyd would open up the middle of the field even more for gronk, a scary thought to be sure.

 

[massraider]

Looks like some still stuck in the archaic ages.

Gronk won't make it to Round 3.

Yeah he will, because we aren't holding drafts today. By August, the Pats will have added a vet WR that people will like more than Ocho Cinco. Maybe they even draft one. People will step back, re-evaluate, start thinking about all the other weapons the Pats have, and wonder if Gronkowski will have a similar season, or drop back to top 3 or 4 in fantasy TE scoring. Still really great, but worth a 2nd round pick? And does this mean Jimmy Graham is a 2nd round pick as well? No. Graham actually is part of the reason Gronk isn't a 2nd rounder. Because a 2nd round TE has to be far and away the best TE, and you have to know he is the focal point of the offense, a la Gates a few short years ago.

The Pats do not have much of a history of focusing on the TE. They have drafted a ton of them, going back to Graham and Watson, but it wasn't until Gronk that owners could plug them one in every week. Further, aside from Welker, and Brady, there hasn't been too may year-in-and-year-out performers fantasy owners could count on in New England. People will wonder about defenses focusing on Gronk, and maybe Hernandez is the shark play.

People will start saying 'outlier', 'career year', 'things broke his way', etc. And they may be right.

In a 12 tear PPR league, no way is Gronk's ADP at 24 or above. No way.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think elite QB and elite TEs are the new trend, if you can get some combo of Rodgers/Brees/Brady and Gronk/Graham in the first 2 rds, you are in a great spot.

 

[Bruce Leroy]

I'll find some other TE to fill the void & draft a RB/WR or other TE.

Gronk isn't the only elite TE in the league. I got Jimmy Graham in round 7 this year. I'll find another one. I always do.

 

[Cecil_Pooples]

Looks like some still stuck in the archaic ages.

Gronk won't make it to Round 3.

Yeah he will, because we aren't holding drafts today. By August, the Pats will have added a vet WR that people will like more than Ocho Cinco. Maybe they even draft one. People will step back, re-evaluate, start thinking about all the other weapons the Pats have, and wonder if Gronkowski will have a similar season, or drop back to top 3 or 4 in fantasy TE scoring. Still really great, but worth a 2nd round pick? And does this mean Jimmy Graham is a 2nd round pick as well? No. Graham actually is part of the reason Gronk isn't a 2nd rounder. Because a 2nd round TE has to be far and away the best TE, and you have to know he is the focal point of the offense, a la Gates a few short years ago.

The Pats do not have much of a history of focusing on the TE. They have drafted a ton of them, going back to Graham and Watson, but it wasn't until Gronk that owners could plug them one in every week. Further, aside from Welker, and Brady, there hasn't been too may year-in-and-year-out performers fantasy owners could count on in New England. People will wonder about defenses focusing on Gronk, and maybe Hernandez is the shark play.

People will start saying 'outlier', 'career year', 'things broke his way', etc. And they may be right.

In a 12 tear PPR league, no way is Gronk's ADP at 24 or above. No way.

Like I said, some still stuck in the archaic ages. And you can see who these people are -- 1) Qualify these guys as TE's...and downgrade as result; 2) Bringing up Gates...and TE's of yesteryear . Have you also failed to adjust to the QB explosions (Rodgers/Brees/Brady)....or you still going with that 2 headed monster QB theory with Garrard/Schaub?Thank you for proving that point.

Might want to recheck that Graham/Gronk aren't far & away the best TE's....

Both are 2nd round picks at worst. In a league where folks have actually done homework. Yes, some owners like potential (D.Murray/rookie RB's/etc..). I like points. And wins. And championships.

People make this hobby harder than it is. Some people adjust, some don't.

 

[massraider]

Looks like some still stuck in the archaic ages.

Gronk won't make it to Round 3.

Yeah he will, because we aren't holding drafts today. By August, the Pats will have added a vet WR that people will like more than Ocho Cinco. Maybe they even draft one. People will step back, re-evaluate, start thinking about all the other weapons the Pats have, and wonder if Gronkowski will have a similar season, or drop back to top 3 or 4 in fantasy TE scoring. Still really great, but worth a 2nd round pick? And does this mean Jimmy Graham is a 2nd round pick as well? No. Graham actually is part of the reason Gronk isn't a 2nd rounder. Because a 2nd round TE has to be far and away the best TE, and you have to know he is the focal point of the offense, a la Gates a few short years ago.

The Pats do not have much of a history of focusing on the TE. They have drafted a ton of them, going back to Graham and Watson, but it wasn't until Gronk that owners could plug them one in every week. Further, aside from Welker, and Brady, there hasn't been too may year-in-and-year-out performers fantasy owners could count on in New England. People will wonder about defenses focusing on Gronk, and maybe Hernandez is the shark play.

People will start saying 'outlier', 'career year', 'things broke his way', etc. And they may be right.

In a 12 tear PPR league, no way is Gronk's ADP at 24 or above. No way.

Like I said, some still stuck in the archaic ages.Thank you for proving that point.

You had a point?The only thing I did was explain why he won't be a 2nd rounder. I didn't say anything about his numbers this year not being worth a 2nd round pick. If he could put up these numbers next year, then he's worth a 2nd rounder. And probably a late 1st.

You didn't make a point, or back it up, or provide anything resembling an argument. Tell us what you project for his numbers next year, and why he is so much better than other TE options. Or do you just project every player to put up the same numbers they put up the previous year??

 

[Cecil_Pooples]

Looks like some still stuck in the archaic ages.

Gronk won't make it to Round 3.

Yeah he will, because we aren't holding drafts today. By August, the Pats will have added a vet WR that people will like more than Ocho Cinco. Maybe they even draft one. People will step back, re-evaluate, start thinking about all the other weapons the Pats have, and wonder if Gronkowski will have a similar season, or drop back to top 3 or 4 in fantasy TE scoring. Still really great, but worth a 2nd round pick? And does this mean Jimmy Graham is a 2nd round pick as well? No. Graham actually is part of the reason Gronk isn't a 2nd rounder. Because a 2nd round TE has to be far and away the best TE, and you have to know he is the focal point of the offense, a la Gates a few short years ago.

The Pats do not have much of a history of focusing on the TE. They have drafted a ton of them, going back to Graham and Watson, but it wasn't until Gronk that owners could plug them one in every week. Further, aside from Welker, and Brady, there hasn't been too may year-in-and-year-out performers fantasy owners could count on in New England. People will wonder about defenses focusing on Gronk, and maybe Hernandez is the shark play.

People will start saying 'outlier', 'career year', 'things broke his way', etc. And they may be right.

In a 12 tear PPR league, no way is Gronk's ADP at 24 or above. No way.

Like I said, some still stuck in the archaic ages.Thank you for proving that point.

You had a point?The only thing I did was explain why he won't be a 2nd rounder. I didn't say anything about his numbers this year not being worth a 2nd round pick. If he could put up these numbers next year, then he's worth a 2nd rounder. And probably a late 1st.

You didn't make a point, or back it up, or provide anything resembling an argument. Tell us what you project for his numbers next year, and why he is so much better than other TE options. Or do you just project every player to put up the same numbers they put up the previous year??

Or you could make us a list of 24 guys you'd draft before Gronk.This should be good.

[standard 12-team 1 PPR league]

 

[Hudepohl]

Looks like some still stuck in the archaic ages.

Gronk won't make it to Round 3.

Yeah he will, because we aren't holding drafts today. By August, the Pats will have added a vet WR that people will like more than Ocho Cinco. Maybe they even draft one. People will step back, re-evaluate, start thinking about all the other weapons the Pats have, and wonder if Gronkowski will have a similar season, or drop back to top 3 or 4 in fantasy TE scoring. Still really great, but worth a 2nd round pick? And does this mean Jimmy Graham is a 2nd round pick as well? No. Graham actually is part of the reason Gronk isn't a 2nd rounder. Because a 2nd round TE has to be far and away the best TE, and you have to know he is the focal point of the offense, a la Gates a few short years ago.

The Pats do not have much of a history of focusing on the TE. They have drafted a ton of them, going back to Graham and Watson, but it wasn't until Gronk that owners could plug them one in every week. Further, aside from Welker, and Brady, there hasn't been too may year-in-and-year-out performers fantasy owners could count on in New England. People will wonder about defenses focusing on Gronk, and maybe Hernandez is the shark play.

People will start saying 'outlier', 'career year', 'things broke his way', etc. And they may be right.

In a 12 tear PPR league, no way is Gronk's ADP at 24 or above. No way.

Like I said, some still stuck in the archaic ages.Thank you for proving that point.

You had a point?The only thing I did was explain why he won't be a 2nd rounder. I didn't say anything about his numbers this year not being worth a 2nd round pick. If he could put up these numbers next year, then he's worth a 2nd rounder. And probably a late 1st.

You didn't make a point, or back it up, or provide anything resembling an argument. Tell us what you project for his numbers next year, and why he is so much better than other TE options. Or do you just project every player to put up the same numbers they put up the previous year??

Or you could make us a list of 24 guys you'd draft before Gronk.This should be good.

[standard 12-team 1 PPR league]

+1Looking forward to this list.

 

[Hudepohl]

Interesting.

If you take the QBs out of my leagues' top players Gronkowski is ranked #4 (Rice, Calvin, McCoy).

Assuming Gronk has a 20% decline next year that still puts him as the #14 player.

That's solid Round 2 territory if you add the QBs back in (Rodgers, Brees, Brady).

 

[massraider]

You had a point?

The only thing I did was explain why he won't be a 2nd rounder. I didn't say anything about his numbers this year not being worth a 2nd round pick. If he could put up these numbers next year, then he's worth a 2nd rounder. And probably a late 1st.

You didn't make a point, or back it up, or provide anything resembling an argument. Tell us what you project for his numbers next year, and why he is so much better than other TE options. Or do you just project every player to put up the same numbers they put up the previous year??

Or you could make us a list of 24 guys you'd draft before Gronk.This should be good.

[standard 12-team 1 PPR league]

Just so I am crystal clear here: You refuse to provide a projection for Gronkowski next year, or make a decent argument for him, aside from some vague 'I like wins' clutter, yet want me to list every player I would draft before him?

Are you serious?

Funny thing is, I am not even saying he won't deserve it next year. I owned Gronkowski this year, and I think he's s stud. I am explaining why he won't go in the 2nd round, on average, next year.

His ADP next year is not going to be 24 or above. That's my only argument. I don't think TE cannot go in the 2nd, or be worth a 2nd. I am just saying, in most leagues, he isn't going in the top 24 picks.

 

[massraider]

Interesting.If you take the QBs out of my leagues' top players Gronkowski is ranked #4 (Rice, Calvin, McCoy).Assuming Gronk has a 20% decline next year that still puts him as the #14 player.That's solid Round 2 territory if you add the QBs back in (Rodgers, Brees, Brady).

It sure is. Can we expect Gronk to again have the best fantasy season ever for a TE next year?

 

[Cecil_Pooples]

Interesting.If you take the QBs out of my leagues' top players Gronkowski is ranked #4 (Rice, Calvin, McCoy).Assuming Gronk has a 20% decline next year that still puts him as the #14 player.That's solid Round 2 territory if you add the QBs back in (Rodgers, Brees, Brady).

But yet so many want to shout "He won't do this every year!!" Or, "I used to get Gates/Witten in Round 3!!"I ask: Who is saying he will here? I expect a decline. And he's still no worse than a Round 2 pick with a healthy Brady.

 

[Yenrub]

I just looked back at my leagues last 5 drafts

The 1st TE has come off the board between 2.05 – 3.02

Now we keep 2 players so I guess those numbers are really 4.05-5.02 in a total redraft

I was able to get Gronkowski at 7.03 in this past draft and I will keep him next year and forfeit my 7th round pick this year.

If he was unproteced I could see him being a 1st round pick in my leagues format

 

[Hudepohl]

Interesting.If you take the QBs out of my leagues' top players Gronkowski is ranked #4 (Rice, Calvin, McCoy).Assuming Gronk has a 20% decline next year that still puts him as the #14 player.That's solid Round 2 territory if you add the QBs back in (Rodgers, Brees, Brady).

It sure is. Can we expect Gronk to again have the best fantasy season ever for a TE next year?

Of course not.But I don't think 80% of what he did this year is unattainable either.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'll wait another year or two before starting the official thread, but based on his first two years I think you have to start wondering if Gronk will end up as a GOAT candidate at TE.

30 TDs in 34 games and 30 TDs on 146 catches is ridiculous. I'm pretty sure there are only a handful of WRs in history that have done anything comparable, let alone TEs. And he did it before he turned 23 years old.

I can see not drafting him where he finished the year on VBD in 2012 (6th in standard scoring), but there's no way he slips past the early part of the 2nd next year.

 

[pecorino]

i remember years back when folks with the first overall pick crossed their fingers to snag Antonio Gates at the swing picks 2.12/3.01. i don't recall how often Gates fell to that spot but my guess is about half the time. that's about when i'd look to take Gronkowski myself.

by the way, you might want to read up on the statistical concept regression to the mean Peyton Hillis might be able to help you with that one. I'll be looking for the anti-Gronks: the players who underperformed last year especially with regards to touchdowns which seem to be more sensitive than yardage (doug drinen was all over this a decade ago). see also: (WR) Bowe, Marshall, Crabtree, (RB) Hillis, and (TE) Jason Whitten.

 

[Hudepohl]

i remember years back when folks with the first overall pick crossed their fingers to snag Antonio Gates at the swing picks 2.12/3.01. i don't recall how often Gates fell to that spot but my guess is about half the time. that's about when i'd look to take Gronkowski myself.

by the way, you might want to read up on the statistical concept regression to the mean Peyton Hillis might be able to help you with that one. I'll be looking for the anti-Gronks: the players who underperformed last year especially with regards to touchdowns which seem to be more sensitive than yardage (doug drinen was all over this a decade ago). see also: (WR) Bowe, Marshall, Crabtree, (RB) Hillis, and (TE) Jason Whitten.

1. Hillis is no Gronk as far as talent for his position. Horrible example, imo.2. We are all looking for those players. But players like Gronk can single handedly win you a championship. Even if you have to spend a 2nd round pick on him.

 

[Raider Nation]

The only receiver I would want before Gronk is Calvin.

 

[Eastwood]

Celek and both Davis' are going to be beasts next year, and can be had much later. shhhhhh.

 

[monk]

The only receiver I would want before Gronk is Calvin.

Agreed ... and if Gronk does this another year he leap frogs Calvin.

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

The only receiver I would want before Gronk is Calvin.

Agreed ... and if Gronk does this another year he leap frogs Calvin.

Oy Vey, SP hype machine in full effect. I'm out.

 

[champ24]

The only receiver I would want before Gronk is Calvin.

This...with a qualifier that I wouldn't be surprised if Graham overtook him as TE 1 since it will be speculated that Hernandez will take a larger slice of the reception pie.

 

[Hudepohl]

The only receiver I would want before Gronk is Calvin.

Agreed ... and if Gronk does this another year he leap frogs Calvin.

Oy Vey, SP hype machine in full effect. I'm out.

Awesome counter opinion. Very valuable.

 

[Raider Nation]

The only receiver I would want before Gronk is Calvin.

Agreed ... and if Gronk does this another year he leap frogs Calvin.

Oy Vey, SP hype machine in full effect. I'm out.

If you only looked at the stats and didn't know Gronk was a tight end, would it still be a "hype" pick?

 

[monk]

The only receiver I would want before Gronk is Calvin.

Agreed ... and if Gronk does this another year he leap frogs Calvin.

Oy Vey, SP hype machine in full effect. I'm out.

If you only looked at the stats and didn't know Gronk was a tight end, would it still be a "hype" pick?

He was 2nd in the nfl with 18 TDs 2 more than Calvin ... Then had 3 more in their 1st playoff game

 

[cvnpoka]

Looks like some still stuck in the archaic ages.

Gronk won't make it to Round 3.

Yeah he will, because we aren't holding drafts today. By August, the Pats will have added a vet WR that people will like more than Ocho Cinco. Maybe they even draft one. People will step back, re-evaluate, start thinking about all the other weapons the Pats have, and wonder if Gronkowski will have a similar season, or drop back to top 3 or 4 in fantasy TE scoring. Still really great, but worth a 2nd round pick? And does this mean Jimmy Graham is a 2nd round pick as well? No. Graham actually is part of the reason Gronk isn't a 2nd rounder. Because a 2nd round TE has to be far and away the best TE, and you have to know he is the focal point of the offense, a la Gates a few short years ago.

The Pats do not have much of a history of focusing on the TE. They have drafted a ton of them, going back to Graham and Watson, but it wasn't until Gronk that owners could plug them one in every week. Further, aside from Welker, and Brady, there hasn't been too may year-in-and-year-out performers fantasy owners could count on in New England. People will wonder about defenses focusing on Gronk, and maybe Hernandez is the shark play.

People will start saying 'outlier', 'career year', 'things broke his way', etc. And they may be right.

In a 12 tear PPR league, no way is Gronk's ADP at 24 or above. No way.

this would make a top 3 pick unreal valuable. you would see a ton of teams with foster, gronk and vick. but i dont see it, hes going early 2nd i would guess. hes just safer than the plethora of injured rbs.

 

[massraider]

Looks like some still stuck in the archaic ages.

Gronk won't make it to Round 3.

Yeah he will, because we aren't holding drafts today. By August, the Pats will have added a vet WR that people will like more than Ocho Cinco. Maybe they even draft one. People will step back, re-evaluate, start thinking about all the other weapons the Pats have, and wonder if Gronkowski will have a similar season, or drop back to top 3 or 4 in fantasy TE scoring. Still really great, but worth a 2nd round pick? And does this mean Jimmy Graham is a 2nd round pick as well? No. Graham actually is part of the reason Gronk isn't a 2nd rounder. Because a 2nd round TE has to be far and away the best TE, and you have to know he is the focal point of the offense, a la Gates a few short years ago.

The Pats do not have much of a history of focusing on the TE. They have drafted a ton of them, going back to Graham and Watson, but it wasn't until Gronk that owners could plug them one in every week. Further, aside from Welker, and Brady, there hasn't been too may year-in-and-year-out performers fantasy owners could count on in New England. People will wonder about defenses focusing on Gronk, and maybe Hernandez is the shark play.

People will start saying 'outlier', 'career year', 'things broke his way', etc. And they may be right.

In a 12 tear PPR league, no way is Gronk's ADP at 24 or above. No way.

this would make a top 3 pick unreal valuable. you would see a ton of teams with foster, gronk and vick. but i dont see it, hes going early 2nd i would guess. hes just safer than the plethora of injured rbs.

I think you are right, top 3 picks will be great. Right after that turn people will be grabbing Gronk and Graham.I think by next August, there will be plenty of people falling in love with enough WRs and RBs to push Gronk and Graham down.

 

[Gawain]

In a 1.5 TE PPR league with TE flex, I would not be surprised to see a 1.12/2.01 turn of Gronk and Graham.

 

[Hudepohl]

In a 1.5 TE PPR league with TE flex, I would not be surprised to see a 1.12/2.01 turn of Gronk and Graham.

Wow. Who would have thought that 6 months ago?I can see that as well. Glad I am not in any 1.5 TE PPR leagues as I think they are a little antiquated in the "new" NFL.

 

[Gawain]

In a 1.5 TE PPR league with TE flex, I would not be surprised to see a 1.12/2.01 turn of Gronk and Graham.

Wow. Who would have thought that 6 months ago?I can see that as well. Glad I am not in any 1.5 TE PPR leagues as I think they are a little antiquated in the "new" NFL.

I think the problem comes from the TE designation. Every team used QB's, RB's and WR's the same way. With tight ends, most teams treat their TE as a usual blocker and occasional receiver. Those teams that treat the TE as a primary weapon totally skew the positional results.

 

[caglassc]

I'm keeping three players: rice, aj green and gronk. Dropping Andre Johnson and mike Wallace and Peterson with his injury.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Celek and both Davis' are going to be beasts next year, and can be had much later. shhhhhh.

I agree with VD and Fred (regardless if he stays in WAS or not), but why is Celek going to be a weekly must start?

 

[Kenny Powers]

You had a point?

The only thing I did was explain why he won't be a 2nd rounder. I didn't say anything about his numbers this year not being worth a 2nd round pick. If he could put up these numbers next year, then he's worth a 2nd rounder. And probably a late 1st.

You didn't make a point, or back it up, or provide anything resembling an argument. Tell us what you project for his numbers next year, and why he is so much better than other TE options. Or do you just project every player to put up the same numbers they put up the previous year??

Or you could make us a list of 24 guys you'd draft before Gronk.This should be good.

[standard 12-team 1 PPR league]

Just so I am crystal clear here: You refuse to provide a projection for Gronkowski next year, or make a decent argument for him, aside from some vague 'I like wins' clutter, yet want me to list every player I would draft before him?

Are you serious?

Funny thing is, I am not even saying he won't deserve it next year. I owned Gronkowski this year, and I think he's s stud. I am explaining why he won't go in the 2nd round, on average, next year.

His ADP next year is not going to be 24 or above. That's my only argument. I don't think TE cannot go in the 2nd, or be worth a 2nd. I am just saying, in most leagues, he isn't going in the top 24 picks.

If ESPN (heck, Berry has him 9th right now) and Yahoo have him top 24, he'll be going top 24.I personally would target him as a mid-late 2nd round pick as is. If they add Lloyd or another talented WR, I might switch to targetting Graham in the 3rd or Hernandez in the 5th-6th.