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so if you extrapolate that into next year we could be seeing 25+ tds next year. On a serious note though, I realize that TDs are variable and sold M. Williams high this offseason (based in part on that knowledge) but he's a redzone target like I've never seen. Everyone in the stadium knows it's coming and he is still open or making amazing catches. He's pretty unstoppable.
This post is'Bayhawks said:
You use regression to the mean when a player clearly has an outlier in production. But that doesn't apply to Gronkowski here. He along with Jimmy Graham are THAT much better than the TE field.
his 17 TDs this year is indeed an outlier in production. i am looking at the big picture in the sense that Gronkowski's mean number of TDs for his career will be lower than 17, clearly a projection on my part but one i would wager on as i mentioned earlier. i am not doubting that he is a great player and that he won't put up big time numbers. i am just saying that the separation he and jimmy graham have from the rest of the TE field will shrink. bottom line, imo, is that he should probably be drafted in the mid-to-late 2nd round but that someone will pull the trigger earlier than that due to his enormous numbers over the past 25 games. all of VBD is based on projections and i would not be comfortable projecting him with 17 TDs but i can see how others might.This post is'Bayhawks said:
Let's look into Gronkowski's stats a little more to see why his season really isn't an outlier.
Last year he had only 59 targets, 42 catches for a catch rate of 71.2%. This year he had 90 catches on 124 targets, for a catch rate of 72.5%. Last year he caught 1 TD pass per 4.2 receptions. This year he caught 1 TD per 5.3 receptions. Last year he averaged 13 YPC, and this year he averaged 14.7 YPC. Only major difference between this year and last is opportunity.....he got double the targets and about double the production. So his year wasn't really that different than last year in terms of his production PER TARGET.
So going forward, why would anyone think Gronkowski will regress back to the mean? What mean? A typical TE mean? Come on. His mean stats are about 14 YPC, and a TD for every 5 receptions......seriously, who can stop him in the redzone? Guy is 6-7 and 260 lbs. Too fast for a linebacker and he will "post up" any defensive back in the redzone. He catches 71-72% of his passes.....guy has unbelieveable hands.
So to make the argment that Gronkowski is going to have a significant drop in production, you have to think it's because his targets signficantly go down (or either Brady gets hurt). Why would Gronkowski's targets go down? Is NE all of a sudden going to start running the ball more than passing it? That's laughable. Brady is a lock for 4500 yards and 36+ TDs. Brady is likely going to pass 550+ times. Brady attempted 611 passes this year, a career high. Say he drops back to 550. If you take Gronkowski's target % for this year (about 20%), means Gronkowski gets 110 targets. Apply all of his production stats from the past, Gronk should catch 79 passes for 1090 yards and 15 TDs. That's elite numbers even for a WR. And that assumes that his target % stays the same and Brady passes it 10% LESS than in 2011.
And add in the fact that he's incredibly consistent. He had 4 receptions or more in 15 of 16 games, he had 60 or more yards in 12 of 16 games, and he scored in 10 of 16 games, with 7 of those games with multiple TDs. Regarding value, he's one of the top 10 overall, and should be a first round pick, but likely he will go in the 2nd round in most drafts.
To assume a regression to the mean is not looking at the total picture and assuming that Gronkowski is your typical top 5 TE.....he's not. He is that much better than that.
would you be willing to project him at 14 td?how many w/r/t do you have projected at 18 td next year?(he had 18, btw)
i don't do projections anymore but if i did, i'd probably put him at 12 or 13 TDs which i am guessing puts him in mid or late round 2. i don't think 14 is an unreasonable projection and that might get him near or even into the 1st round based on VBD.
You don't know that. You're basing your projection by ignoring the facts. 17 TDs is an outlier in production in relation to TYPICAL STUD TE production. But you don't YET know if an outlier to Gronkowski's production. It may or may not. I would say that his talent and situation is better than any TE out there not named Jimmy Graham. Would I project 17 TDs? No. I probably would go with 14 myself. He has had one year at 10 TDs and one year at 17 TDs. If you assume 10% reduction in targets and the same production per target, he projects to 15 TDs.his 17 TDs this year is indeed an outlier in production. i am looking at the big picture in the sense that Gronkowski's mean number of TDs for his career will be lower than 17, clearly a projection on my part but one i would wager on as i mentioned earlier. i am not doubting that he is a great player and that he won't put up big time numbers. i am just saying that the separation he and jimmy graham have from the rest of the TE field will shrink. bottom line, imo, is that he should probably be drafted in the mid-to-late 2nd round but that someone will pull the trigger earlier than that due to his enormous numbers over the past 25 games. all of VBD is based on projections and i would not be comfortable projecting him with 17 TDs but i can see how others might.This post is'Bayhawks said:
Let's look into Gronkowski's stats a little more to see why his season really isn't an outlier.
Last year he had only 59 targets, 42 catches for a catch rate of 71.2%. This year he had 90 catches on 124 targets, for a catch rate of 72.5%. Last year he caught 1 TD pass per 4.2 receptions. This year he caught 1 TD per 5.3 receptions. Last year he averaged 13 YPC, and this year he averaged 14.7 YPC. Only major difference between this year and last is opportunity.....he got double the targets and about double the production. So his year wasn't really that different than last year in terms of his production PER TARGET.
So going forward, why would anyone think Gronkowski will regress back to the mean? What mean? A typical TE mean? Come on. His mean stats are about 14 YPC, and a TD for every 5 receptions......seriously, who can stop him in the redzone? Guy is 6-7 and 260 lbs. Too fast for a linebacker and he will "post up" any defensive back in the redzone. He catches 71-72% of his passes.....guy has unbelieveable hands.
So to make the argment that Gronkowski is going to have a significant drop in production, you have to think it's because his targets signficantly go down (or either Brady gets hurt). Why would Gronkowski's targets go down? Is NE all of a sudden going to start running the ball more than passing it? That's laughable. Brady is a lock for 4500 yards and 36+ TDs. Brady is likely going to pass 550+ times. Brady attempted 611 passes this year, a career high. Say he drops back to 550. If you take Gronkowski's target % for this year (about 20%), means Gronkowski gets 110 targets. Apply all of his production stats from the past, Gronk should catch 79 passes for 1090 yards and 15 TDs. That's elite numbers even for a WR. And that assumes that his target % stays the same and Brady passes it 10% LESS than in 2011.
And add in the fact that he's incredibly consistent. He had 4 receptions or more in 15 of 16 games, he had 60 or more yards in 12 of 16 games, and he scored in 10 of 16 games, with 7 of those games with multiple TDs. Regarding value, he's one of the top 10 overall, and should be a first round pick, but likely he will go in the 2nd round in most drafts.
To assume a regression to the mean is not looking at the total picture and assuming that Gronkowski is your typical top 5 TE.....he's not. He is that much better than that.
Brady just threw for the most TD's by a 34 yo or older QB - does he do that again or does time catch up to him? He's only thrown for more than 30 TD's three times in his career so I wouldn't be surprised if he 'regressed' back to close to 30 and Gronk 'only' caught 10 TD's next year (still a huge number for a TE).
And he's thrown for 30+ in 3 of his last 4 years (other year was 28 in 2009). I think its safe to say Brady has better weapons now than 2 years ago.
So instead of topping the TE4 by 121 and 86 pts respectively they will only top them by 100 and 65 pts.his 17 TDs this year is indeed an outlier in production. i am looking at the big picture in the sense that Gronkowski's mean number of TDs for his career will be lower than 17, clearly a projection on my part but one i would wager on as i mentioned earlier. i am not doubting that he is a great player and that he won't put up big time numbers. i am just saying that the separation he and jimmy graham have from the rest of the TE field will shrink. bottom line, imo, is that he should probably be drafted in the mid-to-late 2nd round but that someone will pull the trigger earlier than that due to his enormous numbers over the past 25 games. all of VBD is based on projections and i would not be comfortable projecting him with 17 TDs but i can see how others might.This post is
Let's look into Gronkowski's stats a little more to see why his season really isn't an outlier.
Last year he had only 59 targets, 42 catches for a catch rate of 71.2%. This year he had 90 catches on 124 targets, for a catch rate of 72.5%. Last year he caught 1 TD pass per 4.2 receptions. This year he caught 1 TD per 5.3 receptions. Last year he averaged 13 YPC, and this year he averaged 14.7 YPC. Only major difference between this year and last is opportunity.....he got double the targets and about double the production. So his year wasn't really that different than last year in terms of his production PER TARGET.
So going forward, why would anyone think Gronkowski will regress back to the mean? What mean? A typical TE mean? Come on. His mean stats are about 14 YPC, and a TD for every 5 receptions......seriously, who can stop him in the redzone? Guy is 6-7 and 260 lbs. Too fast for a linebacker and he will "post up" any defensive back in the redzone. He catches 71-72% of his passes.....guy has unbelieveable hands.
So to make the argment that Gronkowski is going to have a significant drop in production, you have to think it's because his targets signficantly go down (or either Brady gets hurt). Why would Gronkowski's targets go down? Is NE all of a sudden going to start running the ball more than passing it? That's laughable. Brady is a lock for 4500 yards and 36+ TDs. Brady is likely going to pass 550+ times. Brady attempted 611 passes this year, a career high. Say he drops back to 550. If you take Gronkowski's target % for this year (about 20%), means Gronkowski gets 110 targets. Apply all of his production stats from the past, Gronk should catch 79 passes for 1090 yards and 15 TDs. That's elite numbers even for a WR. And that assumes that his target % stays the same and Brady passes it 10% LESS than in 2011.
And add in the fact that he's incredibly consistent. He had 4 receptions or more in 15 of 16 games, he had 60 or more yards in 12 of 16 games, and he scored in 10 of 16 games, with 7 of those games with multiple TDs. Regarding value, he's one of the top 10 overall, and should be a first round pick, but likely he will go in the 2nd round in most drafts.
To assume a regression to the mean is not looking at the total picture and assuming that Gronkowski is your typical top 5 TE.....he's not. He is that much better than that.
if he see's a 20% drop in production, he is still a top 5 rb or wrseems right. unless its a start 1 TE max league, thats the kind of production i would like in the late 1st
Arent these what the vast majority of leagues are?
I wouldn't say vast majority. Heck, I'm in 16 dynasties and I think only 1 of them is a '1 TE only' league.
A lot of leagues allow for TE to flex.
