Where to take Lattimore? (1 Viewer)

[Wreck]

I have the 2nd pick in a 12 team league. I am very well set for this year with Adrian Peterson, MJD, and Lamar Miller, so I am not in need of immediate help at RB. Because of that, I feel like I have the luxury of being able to draft Lattimore and stash him away for a year. Since he is clearly (in my opinion) the top RB talent on the draft board, I'd rather go with him than the other guys who all have question marks.

Am I outsmarting myself or does this seem like a worthwhile strategy?

 

[Mister CIA]

I wish Lattimore all the best, but honestly I never thought he would be a great, or even good, NFL RB.

 

[BigTex]

Early to mid 2nd.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

I think you're outsmarting yourself. He may never play again. I would try to trade down and gain something if I were you. If not, pick the true #2 on your board, and then try to trade for a pick in the middle of the 1st, say the 6th or 7th.

 

[Eminence]

1.10 and beyond.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

To ignore the huge risk of never returning to health enough to be even backup-worthy, let alone a starter, is foolhardy IMO. If you want him trade down, but don't pick him at 1.02.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I have 1.05 and 1.10 and am considering just taking him at 1.05 and being done with it. I'm not convinced he'll make it to 1.10 in that league.

Sure, there's a risk he'll never play again, but there's a risk the other guys will never be useful to you as well. A bust is a bust, whether it's because someone's knee never heels or because someone just isn't very good, it's the same difference. It's not like getting the career of a "normal" bust like Monterrio Hardesty or Chris Henry is something you'd be upset about missing out on.

 

[Kleck]

I took him at 1.10. Also had 1.05 and 1.07, where I took Bell and Ball.

 

[Chachi]

The Chachinator believes mid 2nd.

 

[biju]

I'm just not sure where this guy should go.

I have the 1.11, 2.03, 2.06 and 2.11 in my upcoming draft. (For better or worse I had made some trades that stacked them up this year and I was late to the game trying to trade them off for 2014 picks.)

I have sat here and thought about pulling the trigger on him at each of the first three picks during various points in my upcoming draft. Ultimately, I'm going to entirely pass on him because I see value players falling to each of the first three and I cannot envision him making it all the way down to 2.11. In essence, I'm giving him a "do not draft" grade.

 

[cstu]

I have 1.05 and 1.10 and am considering just taking him at 1.05 and being done with it. I'm not convinced he'll make it to 1.10 in that league.

Sure, there's a risk he'll never play again, but there's a risk the other guys will never be useful to you as well. A bust is a bust, whether it's because someone's knee never heels or because someone just isn't very good, it's the same difference. It's not like getting the career of a "normal" bust like Monterrio Hardesty or Chris Henry is something you'd be upset about missing out on.

I took him in two leagues at 1.10 and 1.12. since after the top 9 there aren't many players I really like in this draft. There's a very high chance Lattimore is a bust but the risk/reward is worth it IMO.

 

[Bruno2]

Just do what the 9ers did... If you're set at RB, have a deep bench and you have extra picks then he's a luxury pick, take a flyer on him. But I wouldn't burn an early 1st round pick on a player who may never see a football field again, even in this year's rookie draft.

 

[East Bay Rounder]

I picked him at 1.11

Team supported red-shirt rookie season is the best situation for him... in addition to being on a team that has a run oriented offense.

No guarantee to him coming back, but in this draft, at late first, early second, I think the upside is worth the gamble compared to the actual talent in the draft.

 

[Andrew74]

I have the 1.01, 1.04 and 2.01 this year. He won't make it to 2.01, but 1.04 is too early. I am trying to trade 1.04 back to 1.08 to pick him there, as I think he'll still be there. With Martin, Charles and Morris, I feel that I too can sit on him at that price.

 

[The Comedian]

Just do what the 9ers did... If you're set at RB, have a deep bench and you have extra picks then he's a luxury pick, take a flyer on him. But I wouldn't burn an early 1st round pick on a player who may never see a football field again, even in this year's rookie draft.

Pretty much this. Still, I wouldn't consider him before 1.10 at the absolute earliest, regarldess of how stacked at RB I was.

 

[ghostguy123]

I have 1.05 and 1.10 and am considering just taking him at 1.05 and being done with it. I'm not convinced he'll make it to 1.10 in that league. Sure, there's a risk he'll never play again, but there's a risk the other guys will never be useful to you as well. A bust is a bust, whether it's because someone's knee never heels or because someone just isn't very good, it's the same difference. It's not like getting the career of a "normal" bust like Monterrio Hardesty or Chris Henry is something you'd be upset about missing out on.

Yeah, but IF he gets back to full health, he still has the bust factor. So he may never play again, and even if he does he could also bust. Late 1st, early 2nd for me.......but I can't fault someone for going with a pick around 8.Pick 2 is silly, even in this draft. Just wait for someone to take him, then try to deal for him all season, cause he won't be playing and maybe that team will need some guy you don't mind dealing away to get him

 

[The Comedian]

I have 1.05 and 1.10 and am considering just taking him at 1.05 and being done with it. I'm not convinced he'll make it to 1.10 in that league.

Sure, there's a risk he'll never play again, but there's a risk the other guys will never be useful to you as well. A bust is a bust, whether it's because someone's knee never heels or because someone just isn't very good, it's the same difference. It's not like getting the career of a "normal" bust like Monterrio Hardesty or Chris Henry is something you'd be upset about missing out on.

Okay, but you're acting like there's no such thing as bigger risks and smaller risks. Lattimore has all of the risk a normal prospect of his quality would have plus the whole "may never play again" risk. Not all risk is the same.

 

[Mike63]

Very tough draft.

If you are set at RB and WR taking Lattimore, even at 1.02, is an option to consider in my opinion.

Huge risk, but there is a similar risk to take a total bust with the same pick (see Patterson or Lacy)

 

[zed2283]

I took him at 1.10. Also had 1.05 and 1.07, where I took Bell and Ball.

Not a bad little draft.

 

[Papa Georgio]

IN this years draft I just don't see him making it to mid-2nd which is about where he should be taken. Everyone has question marks so most owners will take a risk on the question mark with the most upside starting late 1st I think.

 

[Shutout]

I am pretty confident he is going to be a popular 10-13th player taken pick this year.

The risk of "may never play again" is so far overblown that it is ridiculous and here is why:

1. There was no nerve damage in the injury and that is THE issue in regards to whether the player can come back to play. Ligaments get repaired all the time. It is the nerve damage or particularly nasty bone breakage that puts you on the shelf for good.

2. The 49ers aren't dumb. It is easy to say "well, the Niners had the luxury, they had all these picks" but remember this: NO TEAM wastes draft picks intentionally. You ever see a team say pass a pick? No. Feel confident in the fact that all the things you, I and everyone else is sitting around wondering about, the 49ers have done the homework on already.

So, the bigger "risk" is the normal one: is this a player who has the desire to work back through an injury and, if so, will he be a good pro? The second part of that question is unanswered for every player in this draft until they get on the field and do something so you are not taking on any more risk with Lattimore than you are Da'Rick Rogers.

I don't usually get extremely adamant on many topics unless its one of my "go get this player NOW" threads or something but I will put this on ink and live with the consequences: Marcus Lattimore will play in the NFL and, IMO, his floor will be Shonn Greene or Michael Bush type usage/production.

 

[petenice15]

I have 1.7 & 1.8 in a 14 person non-PPR league. Part of me is hoping to take him with one of those picks and part of me is hoping someone takes him before me. I guess that is the inigma of Lattimore, nobody really knows what he's going to be. If nothing else, I think he's great trade bait because of the name. Time will tell.

 

[Abraham]

I think anything past 1.05 is an outright steal. I think, when healthy, he was the most talented back in the class by a fairly wide margin. If not for the injury he's the 1.01 or 1.02 at worst. "BUT," you say, "there IS an injury to consider." Absolutely. Comparing it other people like Gore and McGahee is silly since they are obviously different people and had different injuries. The selection of Lattimore a little further down the board leads me to believe that enough teams didn't have the stomach for the risk. One scout told someone (Peter King?) after the draft that their team didn't think he would ever play again. If that is the case then either that team or the Niners have a woefully incompetent medical team. Injuries are not "open to interpretation." If one ortho specialist says, "He'll never play football again...I'm 99% sure of it" and another says, "I am confident enough in his recovery that you should use a fixed asset - a draft pick - PLUS some of your finite salary cap PLUS the actual cash that goes with it to select him."

There are a handful of teams where a selection wouldn't have given much confidence. But SF seems to know what they are doing of late. I think he'll play again and even if it isn't until 2014 so be it. The chance that any WR or QB is going to be a fantasy success in advance of 2014 or 2015 is very small.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

1.10-2.2 seems like the sweet spot to me. Did just land him at 2.5 in an expert rookie draft mock

 

[Abraham]

1.10-2.2 seems like the sweet spot to me. Did just land him at 2.5 in an expert rookie draft mock

That's insane. You have him as RB5 and R10, which I think is very much where I would peg the guy. 2.5 in even a 10 team league would indicate multiple QBs and/or tight ends going ahead of him. In a 12 teamer that likely would mean guys like Kelce and Bailey were drafted ahead of him. The ONLY way that is justifiable is if you don't think he's ever playing again.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

1.10-2.2 seems like the sweet spot to me. Did just land him at 2.5 in an expert rookie draft mock

That's insane. You have him as RB5 and R10, which I think is very much where I would peg the guy. 2.5 in even a 10 team league would indicate multiple QBs and/or tight ends going ahead of him. In a 12 teamer that likely would mean guys like Kelce and Bailey were drafted ahead of him. The ONLY way that is justifiable is if you don't think he's ever playing again.

Well, my gut instinct is similar to yours, but the word "insane" is a bit strong. In one of the post-draft threads, a bunch of folks here were passionately arguing that Lattimore will be borderline useless until 2015 at the earliest. If someone believes that, then 2.5 in a 12 team league sounds reasonable.....if for no other reason than you will be able to buy Lattimore more cheaply in a year or so, when he has done absolutely nothing.

All that said, somewhere between picks 10-15 seems reasonable. In my league, which tends much more toward RBs in the rookie draft, I don't expect him to reach me at pick 1.07, as someone else will likely take a shot with the 6th or 7th pick.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I have 1.05 and 1.10 and am considering just taking him at 1.05 and being done with it. I'm not convinced he'll make it to 1.10 in that league.

He just went at 1.08 in a rookie draft, yesterday, so you may be right that you'll need to use the 1.05.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Trying to get a sense of value here. How does Lattimore's worth right now compare to a guy like Ryan Williams, who has his own injury history?

 

[Shutout]

1.10-2.2 seems like the sweet spot to me. Did just land him at 2.5 in an expert rookie draft mock

That's insane. You have him as RB5 and R10, which I think is very much where I would peg the guy. 2.5 in even a 10 team league would indicate multiple QBs and/or tight ends going ahead of him. In a 12 teamer that likely would mean guys like Kelce and Bailey were drafted ahead of him. The ONLY way that is justifiable is if you don't think he's ever playing again.

Well, my gut instinct is similar to yours, but the word "insane" is a bit strong. In one of the post-draft threads, a bunch of folks here were passionately arguing that Lattimore will be borderline useless until 2015 at the earliest. If someone believes that, then 2.5 in a 12 team league sounds reasonable.....if for no other reason than you will be able to buy Lattimore more cheaply in a year or so, when he has done absolutely nothing.

All that said, somewhere between picks 10-15 seems reasonable. In my league, which tends much more toward RBs in the rookie draft, I don't expect him to reach me at pick 1.07, as someone else will likely take a shot with the 6th or 7th pick.

I still can't see it being as low as 2.05 or so, even if it is 2015 before we get to see him.

I mean, if you were drafting and you could pick Lattimore, Yeldon, or some other high name RB (Gurley or Marshall or whomever) and you knew you were drafting them in this draft but they wouldn't be around until 2015, do you think any of the guys mentioned above would fall to 2.05? (of course I'm basing a lot of this on the same reasoning Abraham gave in that I am trusting the the Niners have a medical staff who made a solid decision so, I am in the camp of thinking he will be back and play at a level consistent to what he showed promise of).

 

[greenroom]

Took him at 1.6 and have no worries. He was easy the 1.1 pick before the injury. Yes he will sit this year, but to me he will be great starting next year.

 

[menobrown]

He averaged 4.8 yards a carry, in his entire career he has one 50+ yard run, a 58 yard against Troy before he hurt his knee the first time. Since the injury he had one 30+ yard run, a 43 yard run against UAB. It's not all injury related either, in fact most of it's not. In 2011, before he got hurt, he carried the ball 163 times and his longest run was 36 yards.

When healthy he was a good prospect, not a great one. He's not a big play threat and he's not durable. He's a grinder with good receiving skills and a nice frame who had some high volume big games against strong competition.

He probably won't play next year and if he does it's minimal. If he's healthy he's likely to be stuck in a 4 headed RBBC in 2014. After that who knows but count me as one who's not so quick to assume he's more talented than Hunter or James. He might have a bigger frame and project as more of a 3 down back than them but they don't need a 3 down back with Hunter and James. We've not seen enough of James to know what he's got but they did just spend a second on him last year. Hunter, who also has to get healthy, looked like shades of a young Brian Westbrook and both he and James are similarly sized as Westbrook.

To me he's not worth anything near a first rounder. In smaller roster leagues I'd probably look at him in the mid third. In larger roster leagues I might look at him in the late second. So basically anytime I might look at him I'd expect him to be gone.

 

[Shutout]

He averaged 4.8 yards a carry, in his entire career he has one 50+ yard run, a 58 yard against Troy before he hurt his knee the first time. Since the injury he had one 30+ yard run, a 43 yard run against UAB. It's not all injury related either, in fact most of it's not. In 2011, before he got hurt, he carried the ball 163 times and his longest run was 36 yards.

When healthy he was a good prospect, not a great one. He's not a big play threat and he's not durable. He's a grinder with good receiving skills and a nice frame who had some high volume big games against strong competition.

He probably won't play next year and if he does it's minimal. If he's healthy he's likely to be stuck in a 4 headed RBBC in 2014. After that who knows but count me as one who's not so quick to assume he's more talented than Hunter or James. He might have a bigger frame and project as more of a 3 down back than them but they don't need a 3 down back with Hunter and James. We've not seen enough of James to know what he's got but they did just spend a second on him last year. Hunter, who also has to get healthy, looked like shades of a young Brian Westbrook and both he and James are similarly sized as Westbrook.

To me he's not worth anything near a first rounder. In smaller roster leagues I'd probably look at him in the mid third. In larger roster leagues I might look at him in the late second. So basically anytime I might look at him I'd expect him to be gone.

I agree with your assessment of him and I guess that is why I keep thinking of Shonn Greene/Michael Bush type production but in terms of value, I just think he goes in that 10-13 or so range. If nothing else, his name is going to carry enough buzz to get something for him later. If we are sitting here a year from now and Gore is wrapping up a career and all the progress on Lattimore is possible, people are going to be looking at that roster and connecting the dots to Lattimore being their new Gore and the niners don't look like they are going to be a bad team anytime soon.

I think you are right on your take on him and I think you are right when you say if you are looking at him that late, he will be long gone. I just think that late range in the first is almost going to be universally where people pull the trigger on him.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

1.10-2.2 seems like the sweet spot to me. Did just land him at 2.5 in an expert rookie draft mock

That's insane. You have him as RB5 and R10, which I think is very much where I would peg the guy. 2.5 in even a 10 team league would indicate multiple QBs and/or tight ends going ahead of him. In a 12 teamer that likely would mean guys like Kelce and Bailey were drafted ahead of him. The ONLY way that is justifiable is if you don't think he's ever playing again.

Well, my gut instinct is similar to yours, but the word "insane" is a bit strong. In one of the post-draft threads, a bunch of folks here were passionately arguing that Lattimore will be borderline useless until 2015 at the earliest. If someone believes that, then 2.5 in a 12 team league sounds reasonable.....if for no other reason than you will be able to buy Lattimore more cheaply in a year or so, when he has done absolutely nothing.

All that said, somewhere between picks 10-15 seems reasonable. In my league, which tends much more toward RBs in the rookie draft, I don't expect him to reach me at pick 1.07, as someone else will likely take a shot with the 6th or 7th pick.

I still can't see it being as low as 2.05 or so, even if it is 2015 before we get to see him.

I mean, if you were drafting and you could pick Lattimore, Yeldon, or some other high name RB (Gurley or Marshall or whomever) and you knew you were drafting them in this draft but they wouldn't be around until 2015, do you think any of the guys mentioned above would fall to 2.05? (of course I'm basing a lot of this on the same reasoning Abraham gave in that I am trusting the the Niners have a medical staff who made a solid decision so, I am in the camp of thinking he will be back and play at a level consistent to what he showed promise of).

Well, clearly we agree, otherwise I wouldn't have written above that 10-15 seems reasonable. And that I think it's likely in my league that he goes 6th or 7th (BTW - I have pick 1.08 and would likely take him there if he fell).

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Took him at 1.6 and have no worries. He was easy the 1.1 pick before the injury. Yes he will sit this year, but to me he will be great starting next year.

I don't fully understand why people keep saying this. Watch the tape -- yeah, he looks good. Did he look like a clear-cut stud before the injury? Sorry, I just don't see it.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

He averaged 4.8 yards a carry, in his entire career he has one 50+ yard run, a 58 yard against Troy before he hurt his knee the first time. Since the injury he had one 30+ yard run, a 43 yard run against UAB. It's not all injury related either, in fact most of it's not. In 2011, before he got hurt, he carried the ball 163 times and his longest run was 36 yards.

When healthy he was a good prospect, not a great one. He's not a big play threat and he's not durable. He's a grinder with good receiving skills and a nice frame who had some high volume big games against strong competition.

He probably won't play next year and if he does it's minimal. If he's healthy he's likely to be stuck in a 4 headed RBBC in 2014. After that who knows but count me as one who's not so quick to assume he's more talented than Hunter or James. He might have a bigger frame and project as more of a 3 down back than them but they don't need a 3 down back with Hunter and James. We've not seen enough of James to know what he's got but they did just spend a second on him last year. Hunter, who also has to get healthy, looked like shades of a young Brian Westbrook and both he and James are similarly sized as Westbrook.

To me he's not worth anything near a first rounder. In smaller roster leagues I'd probably look at him in the mid third. In larger roster leagues I might look at him in the late second. So basically anytime I might look at him I'd expect him to be gone.

Lattimore is one of those prospects where the sum is greater than the parts. He lacks breakaway speed, but so does Arian Foster (thats who I would compare his style/tools to)

I wouldn't say that Lattimore's knee injuries speak to his durability per se. Was Frank Gore not a durable back because he suffered two torn ACLs before he was drafted?

He might not be a true feature back because of James/Hunter, but he should still be a primary back and in the read option with CK, there will be lanes for him to run through. I think he should be right around Gore's numbers from last year when healthy, 1500 total yds with double digit TDs.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Took him at 1.6 and have no worries. He was easy the 1.1 pick before the injury. Yes he will sit this year, but to me he will be great starting next year.

I don't fully understand why people keep saying this. Watch the tape -- yeah, he looks good. Did he look like a clear-cut stud before the injury? Sorry, I just don't see it.

Its because he has the size, endurance, hands, power, and pass blocking to be a true workhorse, everydown back. There are very few of those in the league. He also terrific vision, efficiency of movement, and ability to get yards after contact. Add to that A++++ character and work ethic and you have a fantasy stud. Only question is how far back he'll get from the 2012 injury. If it's <80%, maybe he will be a wasted pick. 80-90% and he'll be Gore in this offense. 90+% and he could be what we thought he would be two years ago.

 

[Concept Coop]

I wouldn't say that Lattimore's knee injuries speak to his durability per se. Was Frank Gore not a durable back because he suffered two torn ACLs before he was drafted?

I agree with this. The concern is that he's never 100% again. But assuming he makes it back - is he really injury prone? Do we know that? I wager just about everyone would have two reconstructed knees if they happened to be in Lattimore's exact place when the hits took place.

 

[Daru99]

I need RBs and have the 1.7. I agonize over this exact topic, but here is my current thinking. I figure these 6 will be off the board (Bernard, Lacy, Hopkins, Austin, Patterson and Franklin) leaving me with a choice between:

RB LeVeon Bell - avg talent/good situation

RB Marcus Lattimore - elite upside/high injury risk

RB Christine Michael - elite talent/high risk on attitude also deep on depth chart

RB Monte Ball - avg talent/crowded backfield (for now)

Based on my personal preference to draft for high ceiling, I should consider Lattimore or Michael. Both are risky (for different reasons) but I'm leaning towards Marcus, picturing him starting in 2014 next to Kaepernick in a smooth running read option offence.

Other option is to move away from my high ceiling approach and take Bell as a high floor and potentially productive RB2 or flex. Not sure yet... still flip-flopping as I type.

 

[cstu]

I need RBs and have the 1.7. I agonize over this exact topic, but here is my current thinking. I figure these 6 will be off the board (Bernard, Lacy, Hopkins, Austin, Patterson and Franklin) leaving me with a choice between:RB LeVeon Bell - avg talent/good situationRB Marcus Lattimore - elite upside/high injury riskRB Christine Michael - elite talent/high risk on attitude also deep on depth chartRB Monte Ball - avg talent/crowded backfield (for now)Based on my personal preference to draft for high ceiling, I should consider Lattimore or Michael. Both are risky (for different reasons) but I'm leaning towards Marcus, picturing him starting in 2014 next to Kaepernick in a smooth running read option offence.Other option is to move away from my high ceiling approach and take Bell as a high floor and potentially productive RB2 or flex. Not sure yet... still flip-flopping as I type.

I like Bell the best of those four, by far. The Steeler thought enough of him to take him as the 2nd RB off the board and were apparently shopping Dwyer after. They clearly expect him to be their lead back and should have a much better OL this year (Decastro healthy alone would be a big improvement).

 

[BeTheMatch]

Took him at 1.6 and have no worries. He was easy the 1.1 pick before the injury. Yes he will sit this year, but to me he will be great starting next year.

I don't fully understand why people keep saying this. Watch the tape -- yeah, he looks good. Did he look like a clear-cut stud before the injury? Sorry, I just don't see it.

Charlie Casserly called him "the best RB in the draft; a first-rounder before the injury."

 

[Spin]

I need RBs and have the 1.7. I agonize over this exact topic, but here is my current thinking. I figure these 6 will be off the board (Bernard, Lacy, Hopkins, Austin, Patterson and Franklin) leaving me with a choice between:RB LeVeon Bell - avg talent/good situationRB Marcus Lattimore - elite upside/high injury riskRB Christine Michael - elite talent/high risk on attitude also deep on depth chartRB Monte Ball - avg talent/crowded backfield (for now)Based on my personal preference to draft for high ceiling, I should consider Lattimore or Michael. Both are risky (for different reasons) but I'm leaning towards Marcus, picturing him starting in 2014 next to Kaepernick in a smooth running read option offence.Other option is to move away from my high ceiling approach and take Bell as a high floor and potentially productive RB2 or flex. Not sure yet... still flip-flopping as I type.

I don't think Gore will be gone til 2015 at the earliest. He still runs with power, doesn't seem to be slowing down. Although I think I remember him being caught from behind twice this year, where in the past I thought he'd score for sure. And he's gotten much better about pulling himself out of the games when he gets tired to get a break. This is only going to prolong his career, I'd assume. I'm planning on targeting Lattimore at 2.4 in my 10 team dynasty, with the assumption that he won't make any significant impact til 2015 or later. With Rice, Charles and Richardson, I feel I can afford that. But he'll likely be taken ahead of 2.4, and that's fine by me. I'll try to grab him during the 2014 season, when Gore is still running hard, from the poor guy who spent 1.8ish on him.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I have 1.05 and 1.10 and am considering just taking him at 1.05 and being done with it. I'm not convinced he'll make it to 1.10 in that league.

Sure, there's a risk he'll never play again, but there's a risk the other guys will never be useful to you as well. A bust is a bust, whether it's because someone's knee never heels or because someone just isn't very good, it's the same difference. It's not like getting the career of a "normal" bust like Monterrio Hardesty or Chris Henry is something you'd be upset about missing out on.

Okay, but you're acting like there's no such thing as bigger risks and smaller risks. Lattimore has all of the risk a normal prospect of his quality would have plus the whole "may never play again" risk. Not all risk is the same.

That's a fair point, but I think most would agree that Lattimore's "normal" bust potential (IE injury not taken into account) was lower than most of the guys he's being considered around. All pre-injury indications were that he'd likely be a top 15-20 pick in the 1st round of the NFL draft, which typically brings quite a bit less "normal" risk than a guy picked in the late 2nd. He's also the only truly complete back of the bunch. When you're talking about guys typically drafted in the 1.07 - 2.05 range of rookie drafts you have a very high "normla" bust rate. If Lattimore was on his way to the 1.01 - 1.03 range pre-injury there is a much lower bust rate there.

So that leaves us with the injury. How likely is it that he'll never play again, really? When was the last time we saw a young prospect suffer a knee injury that they never returned from, especially one that was drafted in the middle of the draft? The list of running backs that had catastrophic leg injuries and made it in the NFL is not particularly short.

Lastly, we have the issue that, even if he comes back (likely), it won't be for at least a year or maybe two. I think someone made a good point when they mentioned guys like Yeldon and Gurley. Those guys won't even be draft eligible until two years from today, but if they were in rookie drafts right now they'd likely be top 5 picks. Lattimore is only one year older than Yeldon.

To me, the writing is on the wall. San Francisco has a running back with 1-2 good years left. They drafted a running back in exactly the same style who fell in the draft because he won't be healthy for 1-2 years. Square peg, square hole.

 

[cstu]

Took him at 1.6 and have no worries. He was easy the 1.1 pick before the injury. Yes he will sit this year, but to me he will be great starting next year.

I don't fully understand why people keep saying this. Watch the tape -- yeah, he looks good. Did he look like a clear-cut stud before the injury? Sorry, I just don't see it.

Charlie Casserly called him "the best RB in the draft; a first-rounder before the injury."

It's a weak class so had he not been injured it would have been between him and Tavon for the 1.1.

 

[cstu]

So that leaves us with the injury. How likely is it that he'll never play again, really? When was the last time we saw a young prospect suffer a knee injury that they never returned from, especially one that was drafted in the middle of the draft? The list of running backs that had catastrophic leg injuries and made it in the NFL is not particularly short.

I made the mistake of passing on Gore and McGahee because of their injuries so I decided not to do that again. In my rankings I do have Bernard, Lacy, Bell and Ball higher than Lattimore but I'm not going to take backups like Franklin and Michael before him.

 

[cstu]

Lattimore is only one year older than Yeldon.

This was a major consideration for me as well. Even if it takes him 2 years to full recover and get the starting job he'll still only be 23 - he'd actually be younger than Franklin is right now.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I've seen a lot of people mention that Gore probably has a good amount of time left because "he doesn't seem to be slowing down". I think people are badly forgetting history here.

There's a reason that the word "cliff" is used when describing running backs going over one. You don't often hear it described as "man that guy's production really gently rolled down a slope lately". Running backs dropping off due to age typically happens very quickly, often with no prior indication of it.

• Michael Turner put up 1500/11 at 4.5ypc in 2011 (2nd best season of his career). In 2012 he was instantly very bad and in 2013 he's not on the team.
• Curtis Martin put up 1900/14 at 4.6ypc in 2004 (best season of his career). In 2005 he was instantly very bad and in 2005 he was not on the team.
• Ladainian Tomlinson put up 1500/12 in 2008. In 2009 he was very bad and in 2010 he was not on the team.
• Shaun Alexander put up 2000/36 in 2005 (best season of his career). In 2006 he was instantly bad and in 2007 he was replaced during the season.
• Brian Westbrook put up 1350/14 at 4.0ypc in 2008. In 2009 he was banged up and in 2010 he was no longer with the team.
• Clinton Portis put up 1700/9 at 4.3ypc in 2008. In 2009 he was banged up and in 2010 he shared time before being hurt again and never returning to the team.
• Rudi Johnson put up 1500/12 in 2006. In 2007 he was instantly very bad and in 2008 he was not on the team.
• Frank Gore put up 1450/9 at 4.7ypc in 2012. In 2013 he was ??? and by 2014 he was ???.

Point being, these things don't often occur slowly over the course of a few years. In fact, in most cases they occur rapidly from one year to the next, seemingly out of the blue if you weren't aware of what their age was on paper. We are aware of that number for Gore just like we were for the others, and like many of the others he hasn't shown any signs of that number yet. That didn't help any of them in showing drastic signs of that number the following year. Gore could go on playing until he's 50 for all we know, but all I'm saying is that the way Gore looked last year is no indication of what he will or will not look like 2 years from now, or even at the start of this coming season. Once a guy hits this age range it can happen very suddenly.

 

[tdmills]

Took him at 1.6 and have no worries. He was easy the 1.1 pick before the injury. Yes he will sit this year, but to me he will be great starting next year.

I don't fully understand why people keep saying this. Watch the tape -- yeah, he looks good. Did he look like a clear-cut stud before the injury? Sorry, I just don't see it.

Its because he has the size, endurance, hands, power, and pass blocking to be a true workhorse, everydown back. There are very few of those in the league. He also terrific vision, efficiency of movement, and ability to get yards after contact. Add to that A++++ character and work ethic and you have a fantasy stud. Only question is how far back he'll get from the 2012 injury. If it's <80%, maybe he will be a wasted pick. 80-90% and he'll be Gore in this offense. 90+% and he could be what we thought he would be two years ago.

I have to respectfully disagree here Bloom.

-The NFL has few workhorse/everydown RBs because it's specialized. How can we call a player that has been injured(he's missed time outside of the two big knee injuries too) a workhorse RB? Carries in a season 249, 163, 143. McFadden had seasons of 325, 284 in college, is he a workhorse or thought of as fragile in the NFL? Jonathan Franklin has had a better 3 year stretch than Lattimore, is he a work horse?

-Efficiency of movement. I see a similar runner to Kevin Smith. Long legged and exaggerated cuts(wasted movement).

- In FF, great character/work ethic matters very little. It's their job in the NFL to be in great shape, unless a player has poor work ethic...I don't think it matters. Tim Tebow/Mark Ingram had great work ethic too.

-Athletic ability. Lattimore just isn't a great athlete. Not very sudden or fast. He's an effort player with good cutting ability, I don't think that makes him an elite prospect.

-His YPC was 4.8, 5.0, 4.6. While I know it's difficult to measure because of so many variables, that's not dominating. Especially considering he had Garcia/Jeffery for part of his career to keep defenses honest. McFadden didn't have a season below 5.6 in college for a comparison.

I agree that behind the 49ers line is temping, I just don't think he's an elite player prior to the injuries.

 

[cstu]

-Athletic ability. Lattimore just isn't a great athlete. Not very sudden or fast. He's an effort player with good cutting ability, I don't think that makes him an elite prospect.

Lattimore was a 5 star recruit, #1 RB in the country by Scout.com and Rivals.com.

 

[ghostguy123]

I have pick 12 in a draft, but the draft is in August. I hope he gets put on IR, or at least there is a lot of talk about him not playing at all this year. I kind of look at it like an investment. When he does get on the field again, which would be 2014, hopefully there is enough hype to turn that 12th pick this year into either a package for an elite player, or a top 5 pick in next years draft. I don't think it's risky to say, in fact I think it is almost a certainty, that when he gets back on the field his value will be double/triple what it is now.

 

[cstu]

I have pick 12 in a draft, but the draft is in August. I hope he gets put on IR, or at least there is a lot of talk about him not playing at all this year. I kind of look at it like an investment. When he does get on the field again, which would be 2014, hopefully there is enough hype to turn that 12th pick this year into either a package for an elite player, or a top 5 pick in next years draft. I don't think it's risky to say, in fact I think it is almost a certainty, that when he gets back on the field his value will be double/triple what it is now.

This was one thing I forgot to mention. I expect him to either be put on PUP or IR'ed for the season so if you have an IR spot taking him opens up another spot for you to take another player.