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Where to take Lattimore? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Wreck
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Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
No, but when you put together being the #1 recruit with doing very well in the SEC and then getting drafted in the 4th round despite having shredded his knee obviously there's something there. The 49ers passed on everyone's darling Zac Stacy to take a RB who might not even play this year. Maybe the 49ers are just dumb but I tend to think not.
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McFadden is a workhorse and one of the few left. maybe too fragile to hold up, but we still take him in first 3 round of drafts bc of his workload. I agree that Franklin has workhorse potential, despite his size.Lattimore is not high cut like smith, he has a thick lower body and makes crisp cuts.Work ethic/character matters when the main element to players value is whether he can overcome a catastrophic injury and get back to his previous physical levellattimore is not an elite athlete, but again neither is arian foster.the ypc is right at line - 5 - that you want. i agree that its not exactly what you would want, but he did get a ton of work, and as we've discussed, he's not a speed back
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Shutout
Footballguy
I agree on most points, outside of the Kevin Smith thing.
The work ethic/character does matter more coming back from injury time and again. Some players ignore rehab and they never return.
(Kevin Smith comparison) Maybe it's the long legs
Lattimore was working hard to make that cut before his Vandy TD in 2012, didn't look sharp to me(not that I base it off of one play, just an example).What Lattimore was coming out of HS is not all that relevant to the player post massive leg injuries.
Do we have a Ronnie Brown type situation with Lattimore? Solid talent pre-knee injury (1st 7 games of 2007) and basically a backup talent after his return. Or will his recovery mirror Gore/McGahee? Tough call.
Unless my dynasty team was loaded, I would not even consider him until mid/late 2nd round (non-IDP). IDP even later.
Maybe news comes out before your draft that changes things- like an AD type recovery, but I would not bet on it.
I can't find Yeldon's birthday, either way good info.That's good stuff. I had to do a double check on that one.
Not sure you take a backup 2 rounds after your starter when there are quality WR on the board and you are built around a passing game.. I think that was an insurance and value pick for the Pack. I wouldn't be surprised to see Franklin win the job outright from Lacy in GB.
I think his natural skills better fit what the Packers do on offense. Only my opinion though.
Do you think he was 100% last year? From what I saw he wasn't at all. Maybe 85%, that's my biggest worry.
he wasn't 100% last year. he won't be 100% this year, but he is way ahead of where he was supposed to be at least as of his pro day.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
You have to understand the context of ypc in college football here. Home run backs always have significantly higher YPCs in college because they get to wildly drive that number up with a bunch of 80 yard runs against some extremely weak competition outside the meat of the schedule.
Jeff Demps averaged a full ypc higher than Trent Richardson in college because Demps got to flood his numbers with a bunch of 80 yard runs against UAB, FAU, Troy, Kentucky, Vandy. A workhorse guy averaging 7.0ypc against those teams doesn't bump up the total numbers nearly as much as a home run guy averaging 17.0ypc against them.
And what is this talk about Stephen Garcia keeping defenses honest? Garcia was a mediocre QB that never lived up to the hype and was constantly benched before finally being dismissed from the team in a senior season in which he had thrown 4 TDs and 9 INTs. He didn't take pressure off anyone.
1) Well aware of the size/speed o RBs and how it affects YPC. Trich averaged 5.2/6.3/5.9 if that comparison is better. The point is it wasn't a dominating performance in college.
2) Stephen Garcia is better than Zac Maynard(Keenan Allen's QB) or Andrew Maxwell(Le'veon Bell's QB). Why don't you talk about Garcia's 3,059 yards 64.2% 20TD 8.77 YPA performance the only year Lattimore started the whole season? He did keep defenses honest, as did Jeffery's 1500 yards.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Because it's not really anything special in college football, especially with the 14 interceptions that came along with it.
AJ McCarron's numbers for Lacy this year: 2933yds 67.2% 10.8ypa 30td 3int
Bryn Renner's numbers for Bernard this year: 3356yds 65.4% 8ypa 28td 7int
Somehow Garcia having one mediocre season three years ago that would have ranked 3rd among the seasons that the QBs of the top 5 RBs from this year had didn't stand out to me.
It's a fair point. Then again he wasn't running behind Bama's line either, but I can't fault what you're saying in general here.
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This is getting off topic.
Because it's not really anything special in college football, especially with the 14 interceptions that came along with it.
AJ McCarron's numbers for Lacy this year: 2933yds 67.2% 10.8ypa 30td 3int
Bryn Renner's numbers for Bernard this year: 3356yds 65.4% 8ypa 28td 7int
Somehow Garcia having one mediocre season three years ago that would have ranked 3rd among the seasons that the QBs of the top 5 RBs from this year had didn't stand out to me.
I don't think Stephen Garcia is a great college QB. He drank his way out of a chance to go to the NFL. But I do think Garcia/Jeffery allowed defenses to not stack the box(did you watch Michigan State games this past season?) and provide at least an average opportunity for Lattimore his freshman season. If you think they stacked the box on Lattimore because they didn't have a respectable passing game, then I guess we disagree. But I think further comments on this topic should get switched to another thread/PM's.
cstu
Footballguy
I wouldn't be surprised either. However, let's be realistic - Lacy is always going to be there. Unless you think Lacy is an outright bust he's going to be a factor for the Packers.
So even if Franklin wins the job he's still going to share carries and will likely lose goal line touches to Lacy.
Kleck
Footballguy
Some guys are super talented. Others are just football players. Then you have those with it all. But some of the best to ever play the game didn't have both. Bottom line for success, IMO, is desire and work ethic. In the end, I want a football player that's willings to work hard and has a total team dedication. I think Lattimore possesses those features. Not a freak athlete, but a solid football player willing to work his ### off to prove himself, to himself and his teammates.
I'll take a chance with a mid/late 1st on that.
I'll take a chance with a mid/late 1st on that.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I had the 1.1, 1.04, 1,8 and the 2.1. I was thinking about him at 1.8 but Eiffert was there. As a Moreno owner, I was hoping he or Ball would be there at 2.1 or even Christine Michael. All three were taken ahead of my 2.1. I took Robert Woods.
James Brimacombe
Moderator
As much as I love Lattimore I can't pull the trigger on him until the third round in rookie drafts and even then I would cringe if I had to pull the trigger. He is a guy that I wish the best and is a lottery ticket with a jackpot return if it hits. But he is a guy that I want my league mates to take ahead of me so I can have better value when it is my turn to pick. I know in 3 years time that same league mate will be laughing when Lattimore excels him to victory.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I would challenge you to take a look back at all the 3rd round picks in your rookie draft and make a judgment on how many of them aren't lottery picks.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If you draft Lattimore, you should prepare for him to play zero times for you this year. Considering this is for dynasty leagues, he is certainly worth a look come the late part of the 1st round.
Assuming he is healthy enough to be full go at this time next year and heading into the season, he would probably be an early 1st roudner if he was placed into the 2014 rookie draft. So, would you trade a very late 1st or an early 2nd for an early to mid 1st in 2014?? I sure would.
Assuming he is healthy enough to be full go at this time next year and heading into the season, he would probably be an early 1st roudner if he was placed into the 2014 rookie draft. So, would you trade a very late 1st or an early 2nd for an early to mid 1st in 2014?? I sure would.
Chimp Magnet
Footballguy
I wound up taking him at 1.07 after taking Bell at 1.05. I've got the depth to wait out the time required and didn't need any of the WRs that were there.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
Took him 2.01 in HA3
Bombers411
Footballguy
I expect the 49ers to stash him on IR so in dynasty leagues that have IR slots it makes sense to take him late 1st since he won't eat up a roster spot . Personal I would rank him between Franklin and Stacy. I think the 49ers will do this for 2 reasons.1. They have so much depth it would allow them to keep another player.2. It will keep Lattimore from working his way back on the field early and re-injuring himself.
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Sake-Bombers
Footballguy
I isially look at rookies with an eye on who i think they'll be in next year, assuming that this first year is developmental. So for Lattimore, I took him at 2.03 in a 10 team 2 QB league based on who I thought he'd be in 2015, deciding that his upside and chance for impactful success was worth more to me than Franklin, Glennon and even Zac Stacy. Those guys all have other hurdles they can't control. Lattimore would only seem to have to overcome his injury, which is more in his power to do something about than factors like Lacy's presence, Freeman's performance or Rams RB preferences.
Certainly seems like end of first or top of second is longest you can wait currently, and even them may get sniped.
Certainly seems like end of first or top of second is longest you can wait currently, and even them may get sniped.
Shutout
Footballguy
I have the same thought in mind but thought initially they may do PUP and then IR him after week 6, just to hedge a bet and see how Gore is, how Hunter and James are coming back, etc.
But, either way, if you draft him, I think you really have to think of him almost like a DEVY player and just say "taking him a little lower now for what I could draft him higher next year or whatever."
Shutout
Footballguy
When this thread started, I said picks 10-13 would be the popular spot and I think from everything I have seen and read that might even be too low. I still think it is the right spot but I am starting to sense people just going ahead a bypassing the Hunters, Franklins, Eiferts, Allens, in that range and taking him at 9 or 10.
I don't think that is the best move, but I think its happening.
Andrew Garda
Moderator
this
I'm shocked anyone thinks he 'may never play again'
My feeling is, and it's ranked like this in the rookie rankings, Lattimore was the best back - by a fair margin - in this class before the injury. While it's not a really strong class for the most part, he'd have been highly ranked even last year.
If you have a solid roster of backs, taking him 1.5 or 1.6 is totally reasonable. Like the Niners, you can sit him for a year or so and frankly i'm not so in love with most of the other RB landing spots that really you're losing much.
If you aren't solid at RB (which is the case in at least one league for me) you might have to pass and hope he drops to the second round, though that has not really been the case in most rookie drafts I've been in. The latest I've seen him fall is 2.1.
Is there risk? Yes for sure.
But ultimately I believe he will come back and be a very effective running back for the Niners, perhaps not this year (though he's as Bloom said, way ahead of the curve already) but in the next few years.
And look at the other Rbs you can grab in the forst round - Gio Bernard is likely to be a starter sooner than later but aside fom that—Montee Ball is in a committee in Denver, Le'Veon Bell has question marks in PITT, Lacy/Franklin very well might cancel each other out, Mike Gillislee is stuck behind Miller.... all of them may not pay off this year and all are uncertain in terms of value.
If you can wait, Lattimore has more upside than all of them.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I've currently got him ranked 13th, but would really be pretty comfortable with him as early as 1.08 or so. I currently own the 1.08 in one league, and I'd expect him to be in play for the pick (the fact that my team is deep and the league has an IR makes him slightly more appealing), were it not virtually guaranteed one of my top 7 will fall to me, instead.
Worth noting: I think my general "injury discount" is probably lower than anyone else's on staff. When I see a player get injured, I typically swing immediately into "buy now" mode, because very few injuries in today's NFL are that troublesome (there are exceptions- severe concussions, bone-on-bone joints, etc). Lattimore's injury is not the reason I have him as low as I do, I was lukewarm on him as a prospect even before his season was ended. Had he remained healthy, I don't think it's fait accompli that he would be the #1 rookie pick right now. He might have been, but I think once the nit picking had begun in earnest, we'd have found just as many flaws in his game as we did in Lacy's or Bernard's. Like menobrown pointed out, we wouldn't have had to look far- his efficiency metrics were woeful for an RB hoping to get drafted in the first round, and most of his production resulted from the insane volume. Production-wise, he was more Kevin Smith than Richardson/Ingram/Moreno/(insert 1st round RB from the SEC here).
Worth noting: I think my general "injury discount" is probably lower than anyone else's on staff. When I see a player get injured, I typically swing immediately into "buy now" mode, because very few injuries in today's NFL are that troublesome (there are exceptions- severe concussions, bone-on-bone joints, etc). Lattimore's injury is not the reason I have him as low as I do, I was lukewarm on him as a prospect even before his season was ended. Had he remained healthy, I don't think it's fait accompli that he would be the #1 rookie pick right now. He might have been, but I think once the nit picking had begun in earnest, we'd have found just as many flaws in his game as we did in Lacy's or Bernard's. Like menobrown pointed out, we wouldn't have had to look far- his efficiency metrics were woeful for an RB hoping to get drafted in the first round, and most of his production resulted from the insane volume. Production-wise, he was more Kevin Smith than Richardson/Ingram/Moreno/(insert 1st round RB from the SEC here).
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's not like his production is an outlier amongst workhorse backs that went on to be successful. It's right on par with guys like Steven Jackson, Shaun Alexander, and Deuce McAllister. It's also worth noting that he was playing 2012 coming off of a major injury that typically takes more than one year to return to form as well, and his efficiency numbers likely would have looked better if nearly 1/3rd of his career rushes weren't on a leg that was still returning to form.
Nothing is certain, but if we were to play the guessing game in some hypothetical world where Lattimore never got hurt, I think it's extremely likely he would have been the #1 running back and likely a 1st rounder in the NFL draft.
Personally, I'm loaded at WR in my main (non-ppr) league and with RBs good enough to get me by (Martin/Murray/Stewart) I would gamble on Lattimore as early as 1.05 (which I own) if the other four RBs are gone, possibly even if they're all not.
I think he's a plenty talented guy that ended up in a great spot. There aren't many clear paths to the starting gig for a 4th round RB coming off a major injury, but it doesn't get much better than landing on a team that likes to run and has someone good enough to keep them from bringing someone else in before Lattimore heals up, but old enough that he should be fading out of the picture by the time (or soon after) Lattimore is ready. As I said before, square peg, square hole.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
His ypc might have been better had he not been injured, but not by much. He averaged 4.8 and 5.0 in his two years before the injury, and 4.6 last year after. McAllister and Alexander both came out before I actually paid any attention to college football and the draft, so I can't really speak to the comparison other than to say that yes, the profiles seem similar, except both of those backs played in the SEC in the '90s, and outside of Spurrier's Gators, it was a different league back then. I think production-wise, SJax is a good comparison, but I also know that Jackson went late in the 1st (24th overall), and that Jackson possessed a truly rare combination of size and speed that even a fully healthy Lattimore could never have touched (in the last decade, pretty much only Jonathan Stewart and Ronnie Brown have been better). If Lattimore had stayed healthy, I could see him sneaking into the end of the 1st. I also wouldn't be that surprised to see him fall into the early 2nd, which makes him not all that dissimilar as a prospect to Bernard, Bell, Ball, or Lacy, all of whom currently have cleaner bills of health. I get that Lattimore landed in a phenomenal situation, but I'd be hard-pressed to see an argument for him over Bernard/Bell/Ball (who, as I mentioned, are not significantly worse prospects than a fully healthy Lattimore) or Austin/Hopkins/Patterson (for whom there is no speculation- we *know* they are first round talents). I'd also take Eifert over Lattimore (I'm not all that concerned about his situation), but as I said, once we reach pick 1.08 (assuming those 7 are all off the board), I think the decision gets very interesting and Lattimore has as strong of an argument as anyone.
cstu
Footballguy
Those YPC's are nothing to write home about but Lattimore did lead the SEC in yards from scrimmage in 2010 and was on pace to lead it again before he tore his ACL. As it was he still finished 7th after only 6.5 games. Through 6 games in 2011, Lattimore had 932 yards from scrimmage. TRich finished with 2017 in 13 games. Had Lattimore not been injured and kept up his pace he would have had 2019 yards in 13 games. Even if you discount for a tougher 2nd half schedule he still would have finished 2nd to TRich since the next highest was Vick Ballard with 1376.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The SEC was a weaker conference with significantly weaker defenses when McAllister/Alexander played, so I'm not sure why that would be a knock on Lattimore as opposed to those guys.Adam Harstad said:
Stewart and Brown were both shorter, heavier, and faster than SJax as prospects so it wasn't like he was lumped into the same group as them, though it's certainly fair to say he was in a completely different tier from Lattimore in the speed category.
SJax also averaged 4.4ypc in his final year in a conference that at the time was known for its weak defenses. Meanwhile we're knocking Lattimore for going for 4.6 on a bad wheel in a conference known for its strong defenses.
It's also worth noting that after Lattimore went down this past year, his backup came in and averaged 3.5ypc the rest of the way, so it wasn't like SC was some great or even good spot for a RB. That's not even accounting for the fact that both of SC's games against top 10 rush defenses came before Lattimore's injury, and that the only games where his backup averaged over 3ypc after Lattimore went down were against Tennessee (3.4ypc) and Wofford (4.7ypc).
B Maverick
Footballguy
He went 1.09 in the first of back to back drafts (similar leagues, a few different owners) since the guy taking him didnt want anyone else and had no other picks.
In the 2nd draft I took him at 1.09 since I didnt have a 2nd and also had the luxury of developing him (L McCoy, A Morris, L Miller, BJGE are my backs) I should have traded down but didnt get the chance. Also took D Hopkins at 1.06 so I felt ok about it.
In the 2nd draft I took him at 1.09 since I didnt have a 2nd and also had the luxury of developing him (L McCoy, A Morris, L Miller, BJGE are my backs) I should have traded down but didnt get the chance. Also took D Hopkins at 1.06 so I felt ok about it.
TheLurkerBelow
Footballguy
Report today is that he'll be placed on the Non Football Injury (NFI) list, which is effectively like the PUP list except that it denotes the injury occurred before his time in the NFL. I don't think this is anything unexpected, but it might lower his ADP in rookie drafts if there were some people thinking he might contribute sooner rather than later.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/8315/marcus-lattimore
The 49ers are expected to place rookie Marcus Lattimore (knee surgeries) on the non-football injury list to open training camp.
He'll get the NFI designation instead of PUP because Lattimore's injuries occurred in college and are not considered pro injuries. Lattimore will likely spend the first six games on the NFI list -- which operates just like PUP -- and the 49ers will reevaluate his progress thereafter. We don't anticipate any 2013 contribution from Lattimore, and the organization likely does not either. May 6 - 1:30 PM
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/8315/marcus-lattimore
The 49ers are expected to place rookie Marcus Lattimore (knee surgeries) on the non-football injury list to open training camp.
He'll get the NFI designation instead of PUP because Lattimore's injuries occurred in college and are not considered pro injuries. Lattimore will likely spend the first six games on the NFI list -- which operates just like PUP -- and the 49ers will reevaluate his progress thereafter. We don't anticipate any 2013 contribution from Lattimore, and the organization likely does not either. May 6 - 1:30 PM
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Just had a rookie draft in a 1QB with superflex... essentially a 2QB ppr (0.5 ppr for RBs) league.
Lattimore fell to me at 2.07.
1st round went: Austin, EJ Manuel, Patterson, Hopkins, Hunter..... then same person had 6 thru 12: Allen/Geno/Bernard/Ball/Bell/Eifert/Woods
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Sure, I'm just saying, comparing him to SJax isn't really fair. Jackson went in the first due to his measurables, not his production. We both agree that even if Lattimore was healthy his measurables would be worse than Jackson's, so comparing their production profile isn't very helpful. If Lattimore was two tenths faster, scouts probably wouldn't have cared whether he had a sub-5.0 ypc. He wasn't, so I think they would. You see a lot of times that you get these highly hyped, completely unsullied prospects and once scouts start looking for flaws, they find some. You saw it with Lacy this year. We've seen it with Barkley. Brian Brohm was once considered the presumptive #1 overall before the scouts got their hooks on him. I feel like Lattimore was spared that because he was never considered a possible first round pick (because of the injury). If he'd been healthy, though, I think we'd have seen him fall further than a lot of people seem to expect. I just don't think he was that amazing of a prospect compared to some of the RBs the SEC has churned out recently. He seems more like a very late 1st / early 2nd kind of guy to me, so I don't know why I should prefer him over other late 1st / early 2nd guys without the injury profile.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Good point. I have the 20th pick, don't expect him to be there but to be honest, if he is I might look to do this.
