Which players always seem to fall below ADP... (1 Viewer)

[dickey moe]

In the leagues I've been involved with, players that come to mind include Trent Green, Warrick Dunn, Curtis Martin, and Torry Holt. Any others you care to mention that seem to fall farther than they should?

 

[wannabee]

Veteran WRs like Mason, Driver and Rod Smith seem to drop longer than they should.

 

[dickey moe]

Veteran WRs like Mason, Driver and Rod Smith seem to drop longer than they should.

Yeah, that's a good list of WRs. I'm hoping this thread will generate enough discussion to target value for upcoming drafts.

 

[-OZ-]

Veteran WRs like Mason, Driver and Rod Smith seem to drop longer than they should.

These guys have great ADP values, if they go lower than that in your leagues, wow. In my redrafts, young players who many see as breakout players fall below their ADP.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Eddie Kennison is almost always a great value where he ends up getting selected.

 

[BoltzNBrew]

Is 7.11 good value for Kennison? I found myself on the business end of a WR run too often in a recent draft and he ended up as my WR2.

 

[crush304]

don't they all fall below their adp about half the time?

 

[dickey moe]

don't they all fall below their adp about half the time?

Sure. Maybe I should've worded it differently, but the idea is those players who year to year seem to drop substantially below their ADP as to represent excellent value.

 

[Domination]

QB: Green, Hasselback, Brees(overrated), Plummer

RB: Dunn, C Brown, Barlow, Droughns, Dillon

WR: Kennison, Branch, R Smith, Mason, Coles, Chambers(not this year), Driver

TE: Heap, McMichael, LJ Smith

Some of the guys that I know can be had for great value in previous years.

 

[netnalp]

Aaron Brooks regularly gets overlooked in my league. Terry Glenn and Galloway were taken very late last year, same with Thomas Jones. Kennison and Engram were waiver wire.

 

[cracKer]

Tiki Barber = poster child

 

[a_f13nd]

Tiki Barber = poster child

He's ranked either fourth or fifth. In the past he was way undervalued, but now he's gonna struggle just to achieve his rankings. I love Tiki, and see him as a great back, possibly worth his rank, but he isn't going to be a value that early.

 

[-OZ-]

don't they all fall below their adp about half the time?

Sure. Maybe I should've worded it differently, but the idea is those players who year to year seem to drop substantially below their ADP as to represent excellent value.

It's early, I don't get it. How does a player consistently drop substantially below his ADP?

 

[Bri]

year to year is a bit rough. I sorta disagree with the poster above about Trent Green(though each league is different) in that he WAS a good value but now he seems to be picked more where he should be. QBs seem to last a good while and then it's like gold and everyone's rushing to get them. For example, IMO Kitna and Warner were gems of picks in May and now they're flying up the draft boards. I would guess Brooks is next. That's a 1/3 of most leagues there though so you have a good shot one will fall.

In certain drafts, Vick can be had far later than others. "He doesn't throw enough" and "his style makes him likely to get hurt" and..... it turns people off.

McNabb, Daunte, and Palmer all deserve to be thought of as first/second round picks but actually drafted a few rounds later. I mean they're so good. Each coming off injuries, each sure to fly up the rankings once they show their stuff this summer. The ADP of the beginning 4 should fall in drafts as these guys rise.

There's gonna be way more movement of QBs in ADPs than in recent years. I really think this is the year to consider QB back to back. You might have to play on your leaguemates patience and force a run.

Mason and Clayton should both be fine picks at WR. They each can run routes and catch better than most in the NFL. Real real efficient starting WRs there. The Ravens might lack a home run threat but who cares about that for FF. I wouldn't be surprised if they each have a high number of catches this year and in PPR that's $.

Andre Johnson was way up there last year in rankings and didn't play well. Very confident people will be gun shy with him and you'll see him fall a round or two. At the least, it's a good bet last year's redraft owner won't draft him in the same round again. He and Roy Williams(thread here) are awesome young prospects ready to explode IMO.

Chris Baker only played half the year last year and was 15th or so ranked TE. I don't even see him drafted in some drafts. Similarly Jermaine Wiggins can be had late and gets no respect.

Titan TEs can be had late but "the rub" is that they're a long way from Heimerdinger's O and will be used less. They were used a ton so the law of averages would say that's likely but how much less? Their ADP is all over the place right now. Back in May, Kinney shocked me and went in the 17th round.

Koren Robinson seemed to straighten himself out last year on a personal level. Last year was a mess at WR for the Vikes. It's been a long time since Minnesota didn't have a top ten(maybe top five) FF WR. Everyone always said "if he gets his act together" about Koren and well....things seem to be working out for him. In a recent draft he went in the 9th round. I'd guess his drops + Holmgren's threats to bench his attitude have always scared people off. He's more than capable of getting 1000 yards.

 

[lions327]

Year after year, Trent Green always seemed to be drafted later than he should have in a lot of my leagues. To a lesser degree would be a lot of older WR's.

 

[T Man]

Eddie Kennison is almost always a great value where he ends up getting selected.

This guy always fall farther then his numbers suggest he should.

 

[Winston Wolfe]

Can we please get a definition of "great value"?

 

[Uruk-Hai]

don't they all fall below their adp about half the time?

Sure. Maybe I should've worded it differently, but the idea is those players who year to year seem to drop substantially below their ADP as to represent excellent value.

It's early, I don't get it. How does a player consistently drop substantially below his ADP?

I think the statement should have been phrased as: Which players consistently outperform their ADP?

 

[Verbal Kint]

don't they all fall below their adp about half the time?

Sure. Maybe I should've worded it differently, but the idea is those players who year to year seem to drop substantially below their ADP as to represent excellent value.

It's early, I don't get it. How does a player consistently drop substantially below his ADP?

league-specific bias

 

[rascal]

McNabb is so overrated. He is going to post similar numbers before TO showed up, to expect more is asking for trouble.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

I think you meant to write - which players present better value than their ADP suggests?

The way it is written, "which players seem to fall below ADP?" -- makes no sense.

If player X falls below his ADP in your league - it just means he was selected earlier than his ADP in another league. After all, it is AVERAGE draft position. There is no way a guy falls below his ADP across the board - otherwise, his ADP would be a different #.

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO, a lot of guys are vaulable and outrank their draft position. However, not many are true value picks the way I would define it.

For example, if a guy's ADP is WR82 and his year-end ranking is WR58, sure he outranked his draft position. But how often would you be going to play him on your fantasy team and have him be in your starting lineup? Probably never (or once or twice for byes or injuries). Net result is he still has no real starting value which is all I really care about.

Same thing with part time players that maybe do better. If there is a RB that will get 5-6 carries EVERY GAME and could get 30 yards combined EVERY WEEK but WILL NEVER be the starter on his team and he starts putting up 40 yards a week instead . . . is that really helping your team any? Maybe he gets 600 yards on the season and 2 TD. I would rather have the guy that only got 500 yards and a TD if that all occurred over 3 weeks as a starter and he never played any of the other games. RB A would rank higher but IMO RB B had more value.

IMO, the guys that have value are the ones that get in a situation to contribute to your team and be start worthy.

And a lot of this is semantics in my book, and many times a guy could produce 8 rankings better than where he was projected and due to the bandwidth between the players have very little difference scoringwise to begin with. So last year if Antonio Bryant caught one more TD but would have ranked 8 spots higher, does my opinion of him change either way? No. Unless he was a guy that was projected as a bottom feeder and he performed way above expectations.

 

[rascal]

IMO an example of a good value would be Palmer last year (many drafted him in the 8th round), Galloway, and Parker.

If you know who those suprises will be this year please let me know.

 

[-OZ-]

don't they all fall below their adp about half the time?

Sure. Maybe I should've worded it differently, but the idea is those players who year to year seem to drop substantially below their ADP as to represent excellent value.

It's early, I don't get it. How does a player consistently drop substantially below his ADP?

I think the statement should have been phrased as: Which players consistently outperform their ADP?

That's an entirely different question, but more pertinent.

 

[-OZ-]

don't they all fall below their adp about half the time?

Sure. Maybe I should've worded it differently, but the idea is those players who year to year seem to drop substantially below their ADP as to represent excellent value.

It's early, I don't get it. How does a player consistently drop substantially below his ADP?

league-specific bias

Sure, but how is that going to help him? Raiders fall lower in my local league, but that's because we're Chiefs fans.

 

[Verbal Kint]

don't they all fall below their adp about half the time?

Sure. Maybe I should've worded it differently, but the idea is those players who year to year seem to drop substantially below their ADP as to represent excellent value.

It's early, I don't get it. How does a player consistently drop substantially below his ADP?

league-specific bias

Sure, but how is that going to help him? Raiders fall lower in my local league, but that's because we're Chiefs fans.

 

[mbuehner]

McNabb is so overrated. He is going to post similar numbers before TO showed up, to expect more is asking for trouble.

If he posted his 2001 stats in last years season he would have been the #3 fantasy QB. If he had played a full season in 2002 at the level he played the first 10 games at, he would have been the #1 Qb in fantasy last season by nearly 100 fantasy points. 2003 he had his worst year, started off god-awfully, finished strong and would still have been good enough for the #8 QB last season. If McNabb goes back to his 'similar numbers' his ADP as the #5 QB will be just fine.

 

[SSOG]

don't they all fall below their adp about half the time?

Sure. Maybe I should've worded it differently, but the idea is those players who year to year seem to drop substantially below their ADP as to represent excellent value.

It's early, I don't get it. How does a player consistently drop substantially below his ADP?

Well, quite simple, actually. Theoretically, this board is populated with "sharks" who know more about fantasy football than the average Joes. Let's say the average Joes are all expressing a fairly unhealthy level of man-love for Michael Vick, taking him in the first round in every single draft. As a result, Michael Vick would have a very very high ADP. Now Dickey Moe comes here and asks us who keeps falling below their ADPs. Since we're all sharks (theoretically), we're all wise to Michael Vick, and we realize that he's a collossal reach in the first round, no matter how electric he is. Therefore, in our "Shark leagues", Michael/Mike Vick would CONSISTANTLY fall SUBSTANTIALLY below his ADP.I think you're asking the wrong question, though. Asking who falls below their ADP in shark leagues doesn't let us know who is undervalued by the sharks, it lets us know who is OVERVALUED by the Average Joes. A better question would be "Who routinely gets snatched up BEFORE their ADP?" Again, let's say that the Joes all hate Kennison, so his ADP is in the 20th round, but in Shark Leagues he keeps going in the 8th. That suggests two things- first off, that Eddie Kennison is generally underrated, and second off, if you're drafting in a shark league and want Eddie Kennison, you're going to have to jump on him long before his ADP.

That is, in my opinion, very valuable knowledge to have. Again, that means the question we should be asking is "Who, in Shark Leagues, routinely gets snatched up before his ADP says he is usually going".

 

[-OZ-]

Well, quite simple, actually. Theoretically, this board is populated with "sharks" who know more about fantasy football than the average Joes. Let's say the average Joes are all expressing a fairly unhealthy level of man-love for Michael Vick, taking him in the first round in every single draft. As a result, Michael Vick would have a very very high ADP. Now Dickey Moe comes here and asks us who keeps falling below their ADPs. Since we're all sharks (theoretically), we're all wise to Michael Vick, and we realize that he's a collossal reach in the first round, no matter how electric he is. Therefore, in our "Shark leagues", Michael/Mike Vick would CONSISTANTLY fall SUBSTANTIALLY below his ADP.

I think you're asking the wrong question, though. Asking who falls below their ADP in shark leagues doesn't let us know who is undervalued by the sharks, it lets us know who is OVERVALUED by the Average Joes. A better question would be "Who routinely gets snatched up BEFORE their ADP?" Again, let's say that the Joes all hate Kennison, so his ADP is in the 20th round, but in Shark Leagues he keeps going in the 8th. That suggests two things- first off, that Eddie Kennison is generally underrated, and second off, if you're drafting in a shark league and want Eddie Kennison, you're going to have to jump on him long before his ADP.

That is, in my opinion, very valuable knowledge to have. Again, that means the question we should be asking is "Who, in Shark Leagues, routinely gets snatched up before his ADP says he is usually going".

Fair enough.I guess the first question I'd ask is what ADP? Yahoo leagues? WCOFF? That might be the best way to compare. If anyone has the ADP for WCOFF or other high stakes leagues, where the guys playing at least think they know more than most, vs. free yahoo leagues, would be interesting. But might also not mean a whole lot, depending on what league you are in.

The next question is are we using the same format? Rules and lineups make a huge difference.

The question posed is an interesting one, but your question means more.

 

[msommer]

don't they all fall below their adp about half the time?

Sure. Maybe I should've worded it differently, but the idea is those players who year to year seem to drop substantially below their ADP as to represent excellent value.

It's early, I don't get it. How does a player consistently drop substantially below his ADP?

Well, quite simple, actually. Theoretically, this board is populated with "sharks" who know more about fantasy football than the average Joes. Let's say the average Joes are all expressing a fairly unhealthy level of man-love for Michael Vick, taking him in the first round in every single draft. As a result, Michael Vick would have a very very high ADP. Now Dickey Moe comes here and asks us who keeps falling below their ADPs. Since we're all sharks (theoretically), we're all wise to Michael Vick, and we realize that he's a collossal reach in the first round, no matter how electric he is. Therefore, in our "Shark leagues", Michael/Mike Vick would CONSISTANTLY fall SUBSTANTIALLY below his ADP.I think you're asking the wrong question, though. Asking who falls below their ADP in shark leagues doesn't let us know who is undervalued by the sharks, it lets us know who is OVERVALUED by the Average Joes. A better question would be "Who routinely gets snatched up BEFORE their ADP?" Again, let's say that the Joes all hate Kennison, so his ADP is in the 20th round, but in Shark Leagues he keeps going in the 8th. That suggests two things- first off, that Eddie Kennison is generally underrated, and second off, if you're drafting in a shark league and want Eddie Kennison, you're going to have to jump on him long before his ADP.

That is, in my opinion, very valuable knowledge to have. Again, that means the question we should be asking is "Who, in Shark Leagues, routinely gets snatched up before his ADP says he is usually going".

The querstion doesn't have to be the wrong one, IMHO. It could also be read as who does average Joe undervalue (eventhough us sharks know better).This too provides valuable information (it is essentially the same question)

 

[JohnnyJohnson]

Can we please get a definition of "great value"?

Value that is better than good.

 

[SSOG]

The querstion doesn't have to be the wrong one, IMHO. It could also be read as who does average Joe undervalue (eventhough us sharks know better).

This too provides valuable information (it is essentially the same question)

You've got it backwards. Guys who the AVERAGE JOE undervalues (even though Sharks know better) would be guys who are being drafted BEFORE their ADP in shark leagues- in other words, their ADP is so low because the Joes keep letting them slide.Guys who get drafted AFTER their ADP in Shark Leagues are guys who the average joe OVERVALUES (i.e. the Joes keep drafting him high, which raises his ADP, but he keeps falling past that in Shark Leagues). While this is an interesting question, there's far less advantage to be gained in knowing who the Joes overvalue than there is in knowing who the Joes UNDERvalue (and who you will have to take BEFORE their ADP in shark leagues).

 

[dickey moe]

I really didn't think the question would be parsed this much, but I guess that's ok. I enjoyed the discussion that developed in here.

The information I was really looking for is, which players have noticeably and continuously fallen further than they should have in the drafts you have participated in, based on projected ADP (the average draft position by experts in many mock drafts)? Of course, realized performance compared to projected performance should drive the dialogue.

Maybe I should've worded it more like this: I'm basically looking for those players that tend to be overlooked by FF owners from year to year, and usually substantially outperform what would be expected at their ADP?

 

[dcbreber]

I really didn't think the question would be parsed this much, but I guess that's ok. I enjoyed the discussion that developed in here.

The information I was really looking for is, which players have noticeably and continuously fallen further than they should have in the drafts you have participated in, based on projected ADP (the average draft position by experts in many mock drafts)? Of course, realized performance compared to projected performance should drive the dialogue.

Maybe I should've worded it more like this: I'm basically looking for those players that tend to be overlooked by FF owners from year to year, and usually substantially outperform what would be expected at their ADP?

alright, I dont care about the wording of the question, it should be reasonably clear to people that its asking who is for any reason continually drafted lower than their production. QB: Delhomme, Green (like everyone has said), Brooks

HB: Droughns, Denver RBs, Thomas Jones

WR: Chambers, Housh, Reg Wayne

these are just some i think from my league happen often, and players on worse teams also get looked over more than others.