Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
I haven't seen a thread on this, so I thought I'd start one. Recognizing when to trade a player before their value plummets is key to solid dynasty team. That said, who are the top players at each position that will lose the most value at the end of, or during 2008, even if they don't get injured? Here is my list:
QB - Carson Palmer - Yes, he is only 28 years old, and he is presently ranked #5 by FBG experts in both redraft and dynasty. Something tells me 2008 isn't going to end nicely for the Bengals. Their top RB has fallen prey to injuries and has many miles on him (not to mention he turns 29 before their bye week). The backups are either A) young and injured, (Kenny Irons may start 2008 on the PUP after missing all of his rookie season with a torn ACL), B) in his prime and injury-prone (Chris Perry is entering his 5th season and has dressed in only 34% of the games), or C) over the hill (Watson is 30). At WR, the starters are absent from workouts. TJ Houshmandzadeh's contract is up at the end of 2008, which may bode well for both he and Carson in 2008, but TJ may be gone in 2009. Chad has already made his desire to leave CIN well known. Again, it'll be a boost for Carson if Chad plays in 2008, but will he be a Bengal in 2009? The TE position has been seldom used as pass-catchers since Carson became the starter, and that likely won't change. Last year Reggie Kelly finished as TE44. He was TE32 in 2006. In 2005, he finished as TE48. Matt Schobel was TE29 in 2004. These are the top TE's for Carson in the last 4 years, and none were even worthy of a backup TE roster spot on a fantasy team. On the OL, rumblings have LT Levi Jones requesting a trade. He and RT Willie Anderson were both no-shows during recent workouts. It's safe to say the Bengals are a disgruntled group. It hurts for me to say all this, because I own him in a dynasty league. I just think 2009 is going to be sort of a rebuilding year for CIN, and "rebuilding" is rarely related to fantasy success. If Chad and TJ both play in 2008, Carson should easily be in the top 10, with a very good shot at top 5. In 2009, Carson will struggle to make the top 10.
RB - Brian Westbrook - So, why did Westy last until the end of the 3rd round of the NFL draft in 2002? After all, he held the NCAA record for all-purpose yards as an all-around RB at Villanova. Well, his injury history did not start when he signed with the Eagles. He missed an entire season while in college with a knee injury. Brian is a FF monster when he is on the field, but after a season of 368 touches, what can we expect in 2008 from a 29-year old who has increased his touches by 100 in 2006, and then another 50 touches in 2007? 368 touches is hard enough to duplicate for a RB who has a limited injury history, let alone a player turning 29 who hasn't played an entire season since Pop Warner. FF owners normally don't factor missed games into their projections, but even the novice FF'er factors in a few missed games each year for Westy. He reminds me of another guy on his team, who would be a perennial top stud at his position if he would simply stay on the field. Is Westbrook deserving of a RB3 ranking in a redraft league by the FBG experts? Of course he is. What about his RB6 ranking in a dynasty league? No way. A dynasty ranking of RB6 would imply he has at least 2 great years left, and possibly a top 10-15 finish in 2010. The tough decision for Westbrook owners will be - when EXACTLY do you trade him? Now? In the middle of the year? Or after the 2008 season? Sadly, I think he is almost untradable because of his injury history. Sure, any owner will gladly take him from you for a ham sandwich, but he's worth so much more as long as he's on the field. In a redraft - top 3; in a dynasty, certainly not in the top 10. Again, another painful insight coming from a Westbrook owner. I'll have to ride him until the wheels fall off, because I refuse to give up his consistent 100-yard all-purpose games for a less proven younger talent because of his perceived value.
WR - Marvin Harrison - Finally, someone I do not own in FF. Folks, you heard it here - trade him now! This is coming from a guy who traded Priest Holmes the same day he took a vicious hit. Who did I get, you ask? None other than Brian Westbrook - straight up. Marvin is done for. One FBG expert has Marvin as WR33 in both redraft and dynasty. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the 35-year old Marvin fall off the face of the earth in 2007? And no, it wasn't from an injury like a broken bone, which heals. Marvin's knees are shot. Remember how fast Curtis Martin went from stud to retired? How about Domanick Davis? It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Marvin never played again. Right now he is rated at WR35 in a redraft, but I'm afraid that is just wishful thinking. WR35 makes him a starter in a 12-team league. If he does play, he will be top 20; best of luck to the 2008 Harrison owners. If he doesn't play, there goes a wasted pick in your draft. Marvin is like drafting Ricky Williams or Deuce McAllister nowadays. You will either be the genius who nabbed a WR1/2 in the late rounds, or the guy who wasted a draft pick. Personally, I think it will be the latter.
TE - Todd Heap - Todd is ranked 2 spots higher in dynasty than he is in a redraft. I am puzzled by this. Do players become less injury-prone over time? Or could it be that the experts can't decide which young TE's will emerge, so they simply keep Heap ranked above them? If you have the time, I suggest comparing the careers of Heap and Alge Crumpler. They are eerily similar, but people don't seem to have a problem discounting Alge. They both entered the NFL in 2001. Since then, Heap has four top-5 finishes, and Crumpler has five. Career-wise, Heap has 339/3897/27 to Crumpler's 316/4212/35. Sure, Heap is still with the same team, but does that justify a redraft ranking of #8 and a dynasty ranking of #6? Heap moving up 2 spots in dynasty rankings while Crumpler moves down 3 spots (from 14 to 17) just doesn't make sense to me. Don't get me wrong; I think Heap is truly deserving of his #8 redraft ranking and may even be undervalued. But to then move him to #6 in dynasty rankings boggles me.
So, who do you see falling like a Led Zeppelin in 2009?
QB - Carson Palmer - Yes, he is only 28 years old, and he is presently ranked #5 by FBG experts in both redraft and dynasty. Something tells me 2008 isn't going to end nicely for the Bengals. Their top RB has fallen prey to injuries and has many miles on him (not to mention he turns 29 before their bye week). The backups are either A) young and injured, (Kenny Irons may start 2008 on the PUP after missing all of his rookie season with a torn ACL), B) in his prime and injury-prone (Chris Perry is entering his 5th season and has dressed in only 34% of the games), or C) over the hill (Watson is 30). At WR, the starters are absent from workouts. TJ Houshmandzadeh's contract is up at the end of 2008, which may bode well for both he and Carson in 2008, but TJ may be gone in 2009. Chad has already made his desire to leave CIN well known. Again, it'll be a boost for Carson if Chad plays in 2008, but will he be a Bengal in 2009? The TE position has been seldom used as pass-catchers since Carson became the starter, and that likely won't change. Last year Reggie Kelly finished as TE44. He was TE32 in 2006. In 2005, he finished as TE48. Matt Schobel was TE29 in 2004. These are the top TE's for Carson in the last 4 years, and none were even worthy of a backup TE roster spot on a fantasy team. On the OL, rumblings have LT Levi Jones requesting a trade. He and RT Willie Anderson were both no-shows during recent workouts. It's safe to say the Bengals are a disgruntled group. It hurts for me to say all this, because I own him in a dynasty league. I just think 2009 is going to be sort of a rebuilding year for CIN, and "rebuilding" is rarely related to fantasy success. If Chad and TJ both play in 2008, Carson should easily be in the top 10, with a very good shot at top 5. In 2009, Carson will struggle to make the top 10.
RB - Brian Westbrook - So, why did Westy last until the end of the 3rd round of the NFL draft in 2002? After all, he held the NCAA record for all-purpose yards as an all-around RB at Villanova. Well, his injury history did not start when he signed with the Eagles. He missed an entire season while in college with a knee injury. Brian is a FF monster when he is on the field, but after a season of 368 touches, what can we expect in 2008 from a 29-year old who has increased his touches by 100 in 2006, and then another 50 touches in 2007? 368 touches is hard enough to duplicate for a RB who has a limited injury history, let alone a player turning 29 who hasn't played an entire season since Pop Warner. FF owners normally don't factor missed games into their projections, but even the novice FF'er factors in a few missed games each year for Westy. He reminds me of another guy on his team, who would be a perennial top stud at his position if he would simply stay on the field. Is Westbrook deserving of a RB3 ranking in a redraft league by the FBG experts? Of course he is. What about his RB6 ranking in a dynasty league? No way. A dynasty ranking of RB6 would imply he has at least 2 great years left, and possibly a top 10-15 finish in 2010. The tough decision for Westbrook owners will be - when EXACTLY do you trade him? Now? In the middle of the year? Or after the 2008 season? Sadly, I think he is almost untradable because of his injury history. Sure, any owner will gladly take him from you for a ham sandwich, but he's worth so much more as long as he's on the field. In a redraft - top 3; in a dynasty, certainly not in the top 10. Again, another painful insight coming from a Westbrook owner. I'll have to ride him until the wheels fall off, because I refuse to give up his consistent 100-yard all-purpose games for a less proven younger talent because of his perceived value.
WR - Marvin Harrison - Finally, someone I do not own in FF. Folks, you heard it here - trade him now! This is coming from a guy who traded Priest Holmes the same day he took a vicious hit. Who did I get, you ask? None other than Brian Westbrook - straight up. Marvin is done for. One FBG expert has Marvin as WR33 in both redraft and dynasty. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the 35-year old Marvin fall off the face of the earth in 2007? And no, it wasn't from an injury like a broken bone, which heals. Marvin's knees are shot. Remember how fast Curtis Martin went from stud to retired? How about Domanick Davis? It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Marvin never played again. Right now he is rated at WR35 in a redraft, but I'm afraid that is just wishful thinking. WR35 makes him a starter in a 12-team league. If he does play, he will be top 20; best of luck to the 2008 Harrison owners. If he doesn't play, there goes a wasted pick in your draft. Marvin is like drafting Ricky Williams or Deuce McAllister nowadays. You will either be the genius who nabbed a WR1/2 in the late rounds, or the guy who wasted a draft pick. Personally, I think it will be the latter.
TE - Todd Heap - Todd is ranked 2 spots higher in dynasty than he is in a redraft. I am puzzled by this. Do players become less injury-prone over time? Or could it be that the experts can't decide which young TE's will emerge, so they simply keep Heap ranked above them? If you have the time, I suggest comparing the careers of Heap and Alge Crumpler. They are eerily similar, but people don't seem to have a problem discounting Alge. They both entered the NFL in 2001. Since then, Heap has four top-5 finishes, and Crumpler has five. Career-wise, Heap has 339/3897/27 to Crumpler's 316/4212/35. Sure, Heap is still with the same team, but does that justify a redraft ranking of #8 and a dynasty ranking of #6? Heap moving up 2 spots in dynasty rankings while Crumpler moves down 3 spots (from 14 to 17) just doesn't make sense to me. Don't get me wrong; I think Heap is truly deserving of his #8 redraft ranking and may even be undervalued. But to then move him to #6 in dynasty rankings boggles me.
So, who do you see falling like a Led Zeppelin in 2009?
