Who are the " Make or Break" players in the draft (1 Viewer)

[clinton_c]

Every year there are players that have major upside along with major question marks, and the success of that 1 player can be the difference in a superbowl or last place.

An example last year could be Steve Smith, Priest Holmes....or Micheal Vick.

who are these make or break players this year?

I will list 5.

Tatum Bell- This is probably the ultimate risk/reward guy in the draft. A starting RB that gets the full load in Denver is fantasy gold. Bell has shown great flashes, but has also been very inconsistant. He only has to beat out Dayne and Cobbs(as or right now), but Shanahan has always been known as the fantasy anti-christ for mixing up his running game. I would be willing to take a chance on him in the late 3rd early 4th, but much of where his ADP will go will be decided in the preseason. His upside is just too good to pass up for me as long as I have 1 strong back already in my backfield.

Edgerrin James- Many see him floping in Arizona, while others see that wide open offense leading to him having big stats. My thoughts are his ADP is too high to take that risk vs. reward.

Terrell Owens- Will he blow up stat wise or just in Bledsoe's face? He could be anywhere from top 5 to between 15-25 depending on how much faith you have in Bledsoe, the cowboys offensive line, and T.O.'s attitude.

This is a guy I am willing to gamble with if S.Smith, T.Holt, and C.Johnson are off the board.

Antonio Gates- Nobody questions this guys talent, however there are many questions about how well Rivers can get the ball to him. I still really like his upside as maybe an early 4th (not the 3rd as early ADP is showing). I am questing spending a high pick on a TE this year because there seems to be a lot of depth and upside at TE this year.

Donovan McNabb- with the injuries and what happend last year added with his lack of a proven go-to WR, Mcnabb has alot of questions...but I see his ranking is 2nd on the QB list on some sight. There are a handful of QB's that have nearly as much upside without all the questions that will go in the draft at or below where Mcnabb is going...I wouldn't take the risk unless he really dropped.

another 1 I would like to add is the combo of Addai/Rhodes. Whomever figures out who will get the majority of the work will hit gold while the other is left in the cold....unless Dungy pulls a Shanahan and does RBC.

thoughts? anyone want to add somebody?

 

[Colin Dowling]

I disagree on all 5. I can see the point on McNabb - he could easily be a make or break player had at a reasonable ADP. But Gates, Owens, Bell, and James are going to get their chances. If you lose "because" of them, it's going to be due to poor performance out of their control (bad QBs, splitting carries, bad Oline, etc.)

If you are evaluating the player himself, I think a guy like Roy Williams, who clearly has talent and should be in a productive offense, is a better example. If Roy's numbers stink, we'll be able to pin most of it on incorrect expectations of him. If, for example, Edge stinks, we'll likely pinpoint a crummy O-line as the reason.

COlin

 

[clinton_c]

If you lose "because" of them, it's going to be due to poor performance out of their control (bad QBs, splitting carries, bad Oline, etc.)

I think you misunderstood my purpose of the topic....It dosen't matter whose fault it was that a guy didn't perform. All that matters is that he didn't put up the stats and your fantasy team suffered because of that.

so these "factors" such as poor offensive line and "young QB" make these guys have some risk involved...just as T.O. has risk from his attitude or Roy williams has risk from being inconsistant.

It all must be factored in because its a team sport.

 

[Colin Dowling]

I think the only way TO doesn't exceed expectations is if Bledsoe's arm falls off or he (TO) chokes to death on his own tongue. THere is NO statistical evidence in the last half-decade saying that Owens is anything less than fantast gold if he is on the field.

Colin

 

[gman8343]

I would add Reggie Bush to the list. He's going pretty early even in redrafts, and I'm not sure he's going to be a stud his first year out of the gate, especially if Deuce is fairly healthy.

 

[KCC]

Ronnie Brown

Thomas Jones

Carson Palmer

 

[Colin Dowling]

I would add Reggie Bush to the list. He's going pretty early even in redrafts, and I'm not sure he's going to be a stud his first year out of the gate, especially if Deuce is fairly healthy.

He's going early in redrafts because people are sheep. Bush could easily average 5 ypc and score 3 TDs due to circumstance. Payton (sic) is bound to realize his best chance to win has to do with Bush and Duece, not just Bush. People forget how talented Deuce is.Colin

 

[bigfeet_88]

- Kevin Jones

- Deshaun Foster

- Jamal Lewis

These guys could explode or implode.

 

[MLBrandow]

Julius Jones

Koren Robinson

Joe Horn

Charles Rogers

Ahman Green

Aaron Brooks

Randy Moss

Curtis Martin

Sure there are more.... those are just the ones that came off the top of my head.

 

[JAMMIN]

Kevin and Julius Jones are really scary options this year. Not sure if I could draft either but there potential makes me think twice.

 

[JohnnyU]

Cedric Benson, once this guy gets his shot, visions of LJ will dance in your head.

 

[MLBrandow]

Cedric Benson, once this guy gets his shot, visions of LJ will dance in your head.

 

[coolnerd]

Cedric Benson, once this guy gets his shot, visions of LJ will dance in your head.

Which sort makes Thomas Jones a player in this catergory, unless there is a pre-season trade (doubtful).

 

[Rev]

I think the only way TO doesn't exceed expectations is if Bledsoe's arm falls off or he (TO) chokes to death on his own tongue. THere is NO statistical evidence in the last half-decade saying that Owens is anything less than fantast gold if he is on the field.

Colin

If he is on the field is the key... TO is getting older, and at some point he'll have his body to worry about. But for now, I can see him missing three or four games due to suspension. The guy is a colossal waste of talent who simply can't get along with his team or coaching staff. I'm staying clear of him...

 

[JohnnyU]

I think the only way TO doesn't exceed expectations is if Bledsoe's arm falls off or he (TO) chokes to death on his own tongue.  THere is NO statistical evidence in the last half-decade saying that Owens is anything less than fantast gold if he is on the field.

Colin

If he is on the field is the key... TO is getting older, and at some point he'll have his body to worry about. But for now, I can see him missing three or four games due to suspension. The guy is a colossal waste of talent who simply can't get along with his team or coaching staff. I'm staying clear of him...

No need to worry about TO until 2007. I don't think it's a major prediction that he will lead all WRs in 2006.

 

[hove]

Kevin and Julius Jones are really scary options this year. Not sure if I could draft either but there potential makes me think twice.

I took them both last year. Not even going to come close to touching them this year.

 

[gman8343]

I think the only way TO doesn't exceed expectations is if Bledsoe's arm falls off or he (TO) chokes to death on his own tongue.  THere is NO statistical evidence in the last half-decade saying that Owens is anything less than fantast gold if he is on the field.

Colin

If he is on the field is the key... TO is getting older, and at some point he'll have his body to worry about. But for now, I can see him missing three or four games due to suspension. The guy is a colossal waste of talent who simply can't get along with his team or coaching staff. I'm staying clear of him...

No need to worry about TO until 2007. I don't think it's a major prediction that he will lead all WRs in 2006.

In what? TDs, he definately could. Yards, possible but I'm not sure he'll get the ball enough in this offense. Receptions, I'd bet the farm against him leading the league in catches.

 

[wannabee]

I will say Tiki since he will be a top 5-6 pick and most are thinking he will break down one of these years

 

[Snotbubbles]

Julius JonesKoren RobinsonJoe HornCharles RogersAhman GreenAaron BrooksRandy MossCurtis Martin

Of your list I can't see how the following players could "break" your seasonNOTE: ADP taken from xpertsports.comKoren Robinson's ADP is 9.10Joe Horn's ADP is 5.11Charles Roger's ADP is 20.2Ahman Green's ADP is 5.10Aaron Brook's ADP is 8.8Curtis Martin's ADP is 6.5While these players could "make" your season if they produce, I can't see how they could "break" it. I doubt anyone is relying on Curtis Martin or Ahman Green as their RB1, and probably very few as their RB2.I would say guys like: Ronnie BrownCarnell WilliamsStephen JacksonPlayers with "potential" not only to do good, but also to fall flat on their face.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

The first major upside with major question marks player that came to my mind was Domanick Davis. He's easily a top 10 RB when healthy, and in PPR it's even sicker. Of course the "when healthy" is a pretty big question mark.

 

[Spike]

As the premise for this thread is "make or break", wouldn't you have to be limiting the discussion to players picked in the first 4 rounds? Otherwise, how could a 5th round pick "break" your season? (It's very easy to see how a late round pick can put you over the top.)

 

[JohnnyU]

I think the only way TO doesn't exceed expectations is if Bledsoe's arm falls off or he (TO) chokes to death on his own tongue.  THere is NO statistical evidence in the last half-decade saying that Owens is anything less than fantast gold if he is on the field.

Colin

If he is on the field is the key... TO is getting older, and at some point he'll have his body to worry about. But for now, I can see him missing three or four games due to suspension. The guy is a colossal waste of talent who simply can't get along with his team or coaching staff. I'm staying clear of him...

No need to worry about TO until 2007. I don't think it's a major prediction that he will lead all WRs in 2006.

In what? TDs, he definately could. Yards, possible but I'm not sure he'll get the ball enough in this offense. Receptions, I'd bet the farm against him leading the league in catches.

How about most fantasy points in most high performance scoring systems. That's all most non-Cowboy fans and Owen's owners care about anyway.

 

[nightshift]

Cedric Benson, once this guy gets his shot, visions of LJ will dance in your head.

Which sort makes Thomas Jones a player in this catergory, unless there is a pre-season trade (doubtful).

Might be possible. :seeLelie:However, Peterson would be the guy to go to Denver.

Benson, please. You guys stuck on the talent bandwagon kill me.

Do you really want to know what makes LJ so good?

JoePA - excellent coach

Vermeil - excellent coach

Saunders - excellent coach

Holmes - excellent mentor

KC O-Line - excellent blockers

Trent Green - smart, talented vet QB

Gonzo - one the best TEs ever. LBs have to cover him.

Show me that in Chicago.

 

[pigskinliquors]

I'll Add:

QB:

Tom Brady (highest ADP of his career; can he produce again?)

Trent Green (he could have incredible value)

Rothlisberger (his pts per attempt are phenomenal; will he get enough attempts?)

Hasselback (D-Jax and Burleson scare me)

Warner (this is more of a make than a break, as he can be had late)

C-Pep (how many games will he play, how good will he be?)

RB:

Portis (a lot of hype, + a high pick = possible disaster)

Taylor (people are reaching for him, and who knows how many touches he'll have?)

Lewis (no clue what to expect from him; but what if...?)

S-Jax (will the offense still be potent?)

Jordan (if you are not in a PPR league he is a crapshoot)

W. Parker (can he handle the load?)

WR:

R. Moss (in Brooks we trust??)

S. Moss (can Wash be an offensive machine??)

S. Smith (for some reason, all Panthers scare me this year)

Fitz/Boldin (could be huge if Warner is on; what if they go to Leinart?)

Driver: (can Favre produce a WR1 this year?)

A. Johnson (what if Houston's line is actually improved = offense could produce)

TE:

Winslow (who will be the person in your league to take the chance?)

Witten (what effect does T.O. have on others?)

McMichael (what number option will he be in the offense?)

 

[Capt Hook]

The players YOU draft

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I'll Add:

QB:

Tom Brady (highest ADP of his career; can he produce again?)

Trent Green (he could have incredible value)

Rothlisberger (his pts per attempt are phenomenal; will he get enough attempts?)

Hasselback (D-Jax and Burleson scare me)

Warner (this is more of a make than a break, as he can be had late)

C-Pep (how many games will he play, how good will he be?)

RB:

Portis (a lot of hype, + a high pick = possible disaster)

Taylor (people are reaching for him, and who knows how many touches he'll have?)

Lewis (no clue what to expect from him; but what if...?)

S-Jax (will the offense still be potent?)

Jordan (if you are not in a PPR league he is a crapshoot)

W. Parker (can he handle the load?)

WR:

R. Moss (in Brooks we trust??)

S. Moss (can Wash be an offensive machine??)

S. Smith (for some reason, all Panthers scare me this year)

Fitz/Boldin (could be huge if Warner is on; what if they go to Leinart?)

Driver: (can Favre produce a WR1 this year?)

A. Johnson (what if Houston's line is actually improved = offense could produce)

TE:

Winslow (who will be the person in your league to take the chance?)

Witten (what effect does T.O. have on others?)

McMichael (what number option will he be in the offense?)

Brady and Hasselbech are as close Manning for sure things as they come. Burleson is a definite upgrade at WR2. Change of coaching in Oakland might make L. Jordan more of a rushing threat than the two dimensional RB you saw last year. Doesn't mean he won't catch any balls, but that he may be more reliable on the ground. I worry about R. Moss more than anyone on this team.

On Smith, he should be the least of your worries. Panthers are very consistent as an offense. Don't let Meshawn scare you, he will take away some catches, but not enough to downgrade Stevie. I don't see a return to 05 numbers, but Delhomme seems to make a superstar out of his #1 WR each year.

Favre can produce a #1 WR, but the question is how long he plays this year if they aren't winning. Green Bay can only stay faithful to him for so long, there comes a time when you have to start developing your future QB. If they are out of contention, Driver becomes a liablility with Rogers at QB.

This is the year, I think, that Andre Johnson finally lives up to his ADP. Mainly because he's going pretty late compared to previous years, it seems. With Kubiak and Moulds additions to the offense, I think Johnson will be able to put up pretty good numbers.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Cedric Benson, once this guy gets his shot, visions of LJ will dance in your head.

Which sort makes Thomas Jones a player in this catergory, unless there is a pre-season trade (doubtful).

Might be possible. :seeLelie:However, Peterson would be the guy to go to Denver.

Benson, please. You guys stuck on the talent bandwagon kill me.

Do you really want to know what makes LJ so good?

JoePA - excellent coach

Vermeil - excellent coach

Saunders - excellent coach

Holmes - excellent mentor

KC O-Line - excellent blockers

Trent Green - smart, talented vet QB

Gonzo - one the best TEs ever. LBs have to cover him.

Show me that in Chicago.

I don't TOTALLY disagree with you, but some of LJ's runs last year made me think twice about the "product of the system" label. Of course it helps to have a great supporting cast, but dude is just sick at times.

Did you see the screen pass against Det, or the cut back run vs the Bengals? Those plays weren't made by a good HC or offensive line.

 

[pantherclub]

I really really like Benson for some odd reason. For where his adp is I think he is a steal. With no passing game to speak and the cold the Bears will run, run, run all season. There will be plenty of carries even if T Jones behaves.

 

[pigskinliquors]

Brady and Hasselbech are as close Manning for sure things as they come. Burleson is a definite upgrade at WR2.

I have both rated in my top 6, but they are the two in that range that I believe will have the biggest difficulty producing at where they are projected to fall. I will not own either of them unless they fall, as I don't see any value, and possible question marks.

Change of coaching in Oakland might make L. Jordan more of a rushing threat than the two dimensional RB you saw last year. Doesn't mean he won't catch any balls, but that he may be more reliable on the ground. I worry about R. Moss more than anyone on this team.

As stated, in PPR leagues he will do well = no worries. In standard leagues, I am quite skeptical. His ave per carry is frighteningly low.

On Smith, he should be the least of your worries. Panthers are very consistent as an offense. Don't let Meshawn scare you, he will take away some catches, but not enough to downgrade Stevie. I don't see a return to 05 numbers, but Delhomme seems to make a superstar out of his #1 WR each year.

Smith will be one of the top 2 WR's picked in most drafts. IF he doesn't produce close to 05 numbers, he isn't worth the pick. IF he does, he's a steal (= Make or Break).

Favre can produce a #1 WR, but the question is how long he plays this year if they aren't winning. Green Bay can only stay faithful to him for so long, there comes a time when you have to start developing your future QB. If they are out of contention, Driver becomes a liablility with Rogers at QB.

Exactly why I think he belongs on this list.

This is the year, I think, that Andre Johnson finally lives up to his ADP. Mainly because he's going pretty late compared to previous years, it seems. With Kubiak and Moulds additions to the offense, I think Johnson will be able to put up pretty good numbers.

I'm very high on Andre this year and expect him to be on a couple of my teams. Yet, what if Houston's line isnt' improved, and Carr isn't able to get the ball downfield? He's a risk, but does have large upside (= Make or Break!).

 

[nightshift]

Cedric Benson, once this guy gets his shot, visions of LJ will dance in your head.

Which sort makes Thomas Jones a player in this catergory, unless there is a pre-season trade (doubtful).

Might be possible. :seeLelie:However, Peterson would be the guy to go to Denver.

Benson, please. You guys stuck on the talent bandwagon kill me.

Do you really want to know what makes LJ so good?

JoePA - excellent coach

Vermeil - excellent coach

Saunders - excellent coach

Holmes - excellent mentor

KC O-Line - excellent blockers

Trent Green - smart, talented vet QB

Gonzo - one the best TEs ever. LBs have to cover him.

Show me that in Chicago.

I don't TOTALLY disagree with you, but some of LJ's runs last year made me think twice about the "product of the system" label. Of course it helps to have a great supporting cast, but dude is just sick at times. Did you see the screen pass against Det, or the cut back run vs the Bengals? Those plays weren't made by a good HC or offensive line.

Of course he has talent. He wouldn't be in the NFL without it. But most pro atheletes that are successful have a history of great coaching, good work ethic, etc.In football, it most definitely helps to have great players around you, including a stud RB like Holmes was.

 

[Marc Levin]

I completely agree with Bell as a make or break player with the proviso that he is the apparent starter heading into the season.

As the Bronco's starter for the bulk of the season, he is potentially huge - with a high price tag as the Denver starter, however, he could kill you if he either disappoints as the starter and is relegated to part time player again - or if he suffers yet another injury that puts him on the sideline or renders him a part time player.

The current price tag for C-Pepp is also a make or break call.

Finally, the bottom 1st/top 2nd RBs are make or break players - McGahee, DD, Westbrook could all be huge, or they could sink your team as your RB1.

 

[MLBrandow]

Julius Jones

Koren Robinson

Joe Horn

Charles Rogers

Ahman Green

Aaron Brooks

Randy Moss

Curtis Martin

Of your list I can't see how the following players could "break" your seasonNOTE: ADP taken from xpertsports.com

Koren Robinson's ADP is 9.10

Joe Horn's ADP is 5.11

Charles Roger's ADP is 20.2

Ahman Green's ADP is 5.10

Aaron Brook's ADP is 8.8

Curtis Martin's ADP is 6.5

While these players could "make" your season if they produce, I can't see how they could "break" it. I doubt anyone is relying on Curtis Martin or Ahman Green as their RB1, and probably very few as their RB2.

I would say guys like:

Ronnie Brown

Carnell Williams

Stephen Jackson

Players with "potential" not only to do good, but also to fall flat on their face.

Agreed. I was listing guys that I thought were more of "hit or miss" type of guys. I suppose I interpreted the question differently.

 

[Vicktimized]

I would add Reggie Bush to the list. He's going pretty early even in redrafts, and I'm not sure he's going to be a stud his first year out of the gate, especially if Deuce is fairly healthy.

He's going early in redrafts because people are sheep. Bush could easily average 5 ypc and score 3 TDs due to circumstance. Payton (sic) is bound to realize his best chance to win has to do with Bush and Duece, not just Bush. People forget how talented Deuce is.Colin

I'd argue the real sheep are the ones blindly passing him due to his low ADP, thinking he's somehow going to be 'backing up' Deuce Mcallister. Bush was drafted to be THE playmaker in New Orleans. Even if he 'only' gets 180-200 carries, add in a bushel of catches (he's lining up at wr too for sets where Deuce is the singleback) and I find it hard to believe he doesn't use that speed to break away for 8 tds or more. McAllister is going to see work, but Bush will lead this team in touches and be a FF starter IMO. they aren't going to work him in slowly.

 

[justmike73]

I think some are forgetting our RB friend Rudi from Cninci. With Carson in question and a decent beefed up O line he could have a great season.

 

[Keys Myaths]

I think some are forgetting our RB friend Rudi from Cninci. With Carson in question and a decent beefed up O line he could have a great season.

Rudi never has a bad season, is the thing...Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams are the two on my list...Ronnie Brown because he's in that dangerous category of part-timers taking a full time job (see Jones, Kevin; Jones, Julius; and Barlow, Kevan) and Williams because of all the injuries last year.

 

[softball]

The make or break of the drafts in 2006?

How about the WHOLE 3rd Round? What a group to figure out....Every player Gates included has some issue that would usually lower them, but then there are no players in the 4th to "push up"

Interesting year....