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Who is benching Tom Brady at Denver?? (1 Viewer)
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unckeyherb
Footballguy
I rode Cam to the championship game last year. Wee k 16 he had a plus-not great-match up against Atlanta. I made the decision to grab Bortles off of WW (who had incidentally been dropped by the guy I was playing) and started him due to his ++ match up of New Orleans. Everyone thought I'd lost my mind.
Cam scored 15 and Bortles scored 44. That decision won me the championship. Its a week to week game and circumstances should dictate players, regardless of stud-status. I've been waffling and will probably go with Brady, but that's only due to a complete lack of viable options for replacement. If I had even a half ways decent option I wouldn't have any difficulty benching him.
Kaep or ASmith or Flacco come with as much concern and lower ceilings.
Cam scored 15 and Bortles scored 44. That decision won me the championship. Its a week to week game and circumstances should dictate players, regardless of stud-status. I've been waffling and will probably go with Brady, but that's only due to a complete lack of viable options for replacement. If I had even a half ways decent option I wouldn't have any difficulty benching him.
Kaep or ASmith or Flacco come with as much concern and lower ceilings.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I guess we will find out in a few short days. Tyrod and Alex Smith are available on my WW. I'm not even going to blink. Tyrod might have an attractive matchup, but he hasn't scored above what I believe is Brady's floor more than 5 times this entire season. I don't like those odds. Alex Smith is an even more laughable option. If you like single digit games go ahead.
I'm going with Brady. There are a lot of examples of people who made bold moves like benching a stud due to a bad matchup and have done well. There are just as many where people benched a stud due to a matchup and that stud went off and they lost the game because of it. Doesn't sway me one bit because those examples are likely equal in number.
Best of luck to everyone in their decisions this week.
I'm going with Brady. There are a lot of examples of people who made bold moves like benching a stud due to a bad matchup and have done well. There are just as many where people benched a stud due to a matchup and that stud went off and they lost the game because of it. Doesn't sway me one bit because those examples are likely equal in number.
Best of luck to everyone in their decisions this week.
Good stats. Thanks for the response. Agree to disagree. I don't have Brady. I have Winston, Kap and Flacco. I'm going with Flacco but I do think Tyrod has his best game of the year and Brady has his worst.Tyrod... a guy who is banged up against a team that won't score any points so they really don't need him to do much. Laughable.
Tom Brady threw for 200 or less yards only 1 time last season.
The previous 3 times Tom Brady has faced the Broncos he has thrown for:
2015: 310/1/2
2014: 333/4/1
2013: 277/1/0
Yeah... 200 yards...
I'll give everyone 1 INT. But all this talk about how NE won't throw the ball because Denver is so good is just laughable. Look at the history. If anything, he doesn't have the TDs, which are very flukey and could come as 2-3 1-6 yard TDs just as easy as they could be rushing TDs.
275 yards is incredibly reasonable, and >1 TD
The last time Tyrod Taylor had those stats was September. But by all means... start him.
Brady's floor is 17 fantasy points IMO. If you have a player you can confidently say their floor is 17 FP but their ceiling is higher, yes then you start him, but that list is very minimal.
Players mentioned on this thread... many are available on my WW and they are going to stay there.
No, 1 INT is not maybe Brady's floor. Since 2014, he has thrown 2 picks in 5 games. That's a reasonable floor. Kaepernick's floor is 4 yards. Alex Smith's floor is 100/0/2. Brady's is much higher than most qbs, but his floor is still a crappy game.
Another way to look at it is that Denver has only allowed 1 above avg passing game this year and that was by Brees in the dome. 8 games below 200 yards passing, 11 games with 1 or 0 TD allowed. Not saying Brady can't overcome the odds, but this is a bad matchup to count on winning a playoff fantasy game from him.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Another way to look at it is NE has given up the 31st fewest points to opposing fantasy defenses this season. So there's that too
Alex Smith passed for 220
Drew Brees for 303
Phillip Rivers avg 222
Matt Ryan 267
But Tom F-in Brady isn't going to go past 200. Ha
And I'm not a fan of Tom Brady
NE's offense is Denver's toughest matchup of the season. It's completely reasonable to say that Brady will perform closer to Drew Brees than Osweiler or Mariota... The New Orleans offense is much closer to how NE plays than Houston, Oakland, Tennessee, even SD.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The Drew Brees that has thrown 0 TD and 6 INT over the past two weeks? The same one that has thrown for 70 fewer yards and almost half as many TD on the road this year? The same guy that threw for 70 fewer yards on the road last year and threw 3 TD per game at home and 1 per game on the road last year?
The point being, there are very few sure things. Odds are, if you have Brady or Brees, you may not have much of a choice. I have Brady and my options are Tyrod or Dalton.
On paper, BAL had a better defense this year than DEN, and Brady shredded the Ravens. If you benched Brady last week, you would have missed out on 400/3 and scored:
Brees 257/0/3
Taylor 228/2/1
Kaep 133/1/0
Smith 264/1/1
Stop putting words in my mouth. I did not say 225/1/2 was his expected game. I did not say he wouldn't get to 200 yards. I said his floor is that, which is a bad game and Denver is brutal against the pass. Various projections have Brady in the mid teens among QB rankings. NE team point total is projected around 23.5.
Moonshine
Footballguy
Well, thanks to you bozos I've taken Brady out of my line up and put him back in about 100 times in the past 24 hours 
It doesn't help that, when really pushed against the wall, my instincts are wrong nearly 100% of the time, which holds especially true when it comes to my instinct not to trust my instincts.
At the end of the day, talent wins out for me, and were I a GM there aren't many quarterbacks I'd rather helm my team than Timmy Brady. I can live with losing with him in my lineup.
It doesn't help that, when really pushed against the wall, my instincts are wrong nearly 100% of the time, which holds especially true when it comes to my instinct not to trust my instincts.
At the end of the day, talent wins out for me, and were I a GM there aren't many quarterbacks I'd rather helm my team than Timmy Brady. I can live with losing with him in my lineup.
need2know
Footballguy
Another thing in Bradys favor. The oline is starting to play well. Previous versions of the oline vs Denver have been hurt or not playing well. You could argue, rather easily, this is the deepest wrs and rb cores Brady has had in years. No gronk hurts, but Bennett ain't a bad fill in.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I think this is by far the best post in here:Well, thanks to you bozos I've taken Brady out of my line up and put him back in about 100 times in the past 24 hours
It doesn't help that, when really pushed against the wall, my instincts are wrong nearly 100% of the time, which holds especially true when it comes to my instinct not to trust my instincts.
At the end of the day, talent wins out for me, and were I a GM there aren't many quarterbacks I'd rather helm my team than Timmy Brady. I can live with losing with him in my lineup.
WheelsUp said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
You just won the internet. I award you 79,642 internet points. Try not to spend them all in one place.WheelsUp said:
had you posted this on the 1st page, this topic wouldn't be 3 pages.
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I got 3 leagues that for a few weeks I had plans to not start Brady but reality is I will only be pulling him in two leagues instead of three and one I would not do in a standard normal league playoff or regular season game.
I had planned to bench him for Matt Ryan for weeks and I will continue with that plan this week in a fairly easy call.
My plan was to sit him for Mariotta in a dynasty league but the weather in KC has scared me off and now I'll continue with Brady.
I had planned to sit him for Kaepernick this week and I will continue with that plan as well but this is one that in a typical league playoff I would go Brady. My major concern with Kaepernick is not the Chicago game or last week, but losing arguably his two best field stretching receiving options in Mcdonald and Smith, both which might be more valuable real life then fantasy players and IMO both open up the field and help his running and passing. Also Quinn knows him well from time in Seattle and I think that helps him have game plan to defend him so in general I would not start Kap over Brady even if he faces the defense giving up most fantasy points per week and Brady faces defense giving up least. But in this particular league I'm going with Kaepernick because it's a national contest and I'm right at money point in contest but I'm trying to win big so I'm going with against the grain as I'd estimate 30% of teams above me have Brady so in this case I'm going for ceiling/anti-Brady play.
My mind is made up on these decisions but just for fun I checked some numbers. In hindsight I'd have preferred to look at this as yards/TD but did it as standard PPR scoring, using standard PPR QB scoring form this website(I guess PPR part is not applicable)
Anyway here are few nuggets of info, which may not help you one bit.
I removed the impact of the Brady game against the teams he faced this year and Brady averages 4.31 fantasy points per game above the average fantasy points per game the defense he is facing gives up to QB's which would put him 19.61 for Denver. This is actually close to range I see, a 220/2 or 280/1 with a few rushing yards kind of day.
Two times this season Brady scored under the average points per game the defense he is facing gives up to QB's, against Seattle and the Rams.
I only went back from 2014 on, go older and makeup of teams change to much. He had one game he faced Denver with no Gronk and went 277 with a TD which fits the model above. In the 3 games with Gronk Brady went 189/3, 192/1 and 205/0 throwing to someone other than Gronk. In those 3 games Gronk accounted for 36% of receiving yards, and 37.5% of the TD's. Obviously those pass attempts will go to someone else so it's not lost production for Brady, but it's still a lot of production to make up.
In summary I agree he's got a solid floor and in a week that looks a little bleak for QB's, to the point I got Cousins as my #1 this week, a solid floor is not so bad.
I had planned to bench him for Matt Ryan for weeks and I will continue with that plan this week in a fairly easy call.
My plan was to sit him for Mariotta in a dynasty league but the weather in KC has scared me off and now I'll continue with Brady.
I had planned to sit him for Kaepernick this week and I will continue with that plan as well but this is one that in a typical league playoff I would go Brady. My major concern with Kaepernick is not the Chicago game or last week, but losing arguably his two best field stretching receiving options in Mcdonald and Smith, both which might be more valuable real life then fantasy players and IMO both open up the field and help his running and passing. Also Quinn knows him well from time in Seattle and I think that helps him have game plan to defend him so in general I would not start Kap over Brady even if he faces the defense giving up most fantasy points per week and Brady faces defense giving up least. But in this particular league I'm going with Kaepernick because it's a national contest and I'm right at money point in contest but I'm trying to win big so I'm going with against the grain as I'd estimate 30% of teams above me have Brady so in this case I'm going for ceiling/anti-Brady play.
My mind is made up on these decisions but just for fun I checked some numbers. In hindsight I'd have preferred to look at this as yards/TD but did it as standard PPR scoring, using standard PPR QB scoring form this website(I guess PPR part is not applicable)
Anyway here are few nuggets of info, which may not help you one bit.
I removed the impact of the Brady game against the teams he faced this year and Brady averages 4.31 fantasy points per game above the average fantasy points per game the defense he is facing gives up to QB's which would put him 19.61 for Denver. This is actually close to range I see, a 220/2 or 280/1 with a few rushing yards kind of day.
Two times this season Brady scored under the average points per game the defense he is facing gives up to QB's, against Seattle and the Rams.
I only went back from 2014 on, go older and makeup of teams change to much. He had one game he faced Denver with no Gronk and went 277 with a TD which fits the model above. In the 3 games with Gronk Brady went 189/3, 192/1 and 205/0 throwing to someone other than Gronk. In those 3 games Gronk accounted for 36% of receiving yards, and 37.5% of the TD's. Obviously those pass attempts will go to someone else so it's not lost production for Brady, but it's still a lot of production to make up.
In summary I agree he's got a solid floor and in a week that looks a little bleak for QB's, to the point I got Cousins as my #1 this week, a solid floor is not so bad.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
So your master plan is to start Kaepernick over Brady for the highest ceiling play?
Good luck with that.
flipcuplegend
Footballguy
I think starting Kap or Tyrod is very risky given all the stats shared about Brady performing above the average opponents fantasy points allowed to QB's. Seattle and LA were the ONLY times he under performed. Brady is safe and the only reason you would start him is if your matchup is a huge underdog and you're essentially shooting for the stars.
The one consideration is Flacco since he throws the ball a ton finishing with a fair amount of points the past 6 weeks, Philly has been shredded and there is not much of a threat in game flow for Dixon/West to run the ball a ton. The latter is mentioned due to Blount possibly just taking over this game.
The one consideration is Flacco since he throws the ball a ton finishing with a fair amount of points the past 6 weeks, Philly has been shredded and there is not much of a threat in game flow for Dixon/West to run the ball a ton. The latter is mentioned due to Blount possibly just taking over this game.
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10/18/09 - I benched Brady, because the situation seemed impossible for him to have a good game. Never again.
Seriously though, it comes down to the Bloom mantra, "What can I live with?". I will find it much easier to accept that Brady had a bad day in my lineup and I lost, than Brady had a great day on my bench and I lost. Brady has outperformed expectations so many times in his career, I just can't bring myself to sit him. As someone above mentioned, last week was theoretically a bad match-up as well, look how that went.
Seriously though, it comes down to the Bloom mantra, "What can I live with?". I will find it much easier to accept that Brady had a bad day in my lineup and I lost, than Brady had a great day on my bench and I lost. Brady has outperformed expectations so many times in his career, I just can't bring myself to sit him. As someone above mentioned, last week was theoretically a bad match-up as well, look how that went.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
I'm playing a guy who has Brady, Kaep and Cousins. I'm hoping he keeps Brady in there.
Yes because Kap's best fantasy game this season was better than Brady's best game. Yes because Kap's best fantasy game of his career is better than Brady's best game of his career, you know the kind of things that don't define floor but ceiling. Yes because the ceiling against Denver this season has been higher in 5 games versus Atlanta and most of all yes because I'm trailing Brady owners and will 100% be starting him next week against the Jets so this week is my one shot to try and make up some ground on those teams by going a different direction at QB. I'm not looking for safe on this move and like I said earlier I don't do this if I'm in a normal league but different set of circumstances when technically facing, and trailing, a good amount of Brady owners.So your master plan is to start Kaepernick over Brady for the highest ceiling play?
Good luck with that.
Can't lose, it's not H2H. Based on where I am in standings entering this weekend I'm looking at a few points from cashing in $500. I'm trailing the highest scoring Brady owner, and second highest scoring team overall, by 51 points. First place pays $250k. I'm willing to take gambles to try and catch up for major money and am fine risking losing $500.
Like I've said I think 4 or 5 times already, in a normal league I start Brady over Kap, this is not a normal league.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It's similar to a DFS play - you're hoping to leapfrog.
Isn't there someone better than Kaepernick though?
Yes, trying to leapfrog. Leader in this event heading into week has Rodgers at QB and team in second has Brady and has me down 51 points(with about other 150 teams between us and I'd estimate around 45 teams with Brady and maybe 1 or 2 with Kap). Probably to much ground to make up but I have to try and find some ways, especially when my two highest scoring non-QB' are so commonly owned by teams ahead of me.
Waivers ended week 13 but I'm not down on Kap like most, he is after all the 12th scoring fantasy QB in PPG scoring since he took over facing the defense that gives up the most fantasy points to QB's. Do I trust him? Nope. I also think he's a real life terrible QB but like I keep saying I'm not playing with floor in mind.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Meh. No Gronk."Famous last words" or "careful what you wish for" both come to mind.
Brady's got a better floor, but as pointed out here...Kaep's had bigger games this year. I wouldn't be surprised if DEN holds him in check for a below average game.
Lot of dismissing DEN here.
NE is going to win, 24-10 or something like that. I wouldn't be surprised to see Brady go for 275 yards and 3 TDs (one to Floyd, if activated). Bench him for anyone else but Rodgers and Brees (which you don't have unless you're in a 4 team family league) or best of luck regretting your decision until next Summer.
need2know
Footballguy
flipcuplegend
Footballguy
I have Brees in another league and those comments about always playing him are legitimate stupid. The last two games he has been HORRID and now goes into Arizona where they haven't allowed a QB to pass for 275 yards or higher. I feel like the posters on this board are just throwing blanket statements without looking at numbers.
Back to Brady though, I do agree with the sentiment mentioned earlier, make a decision you can live with. If you're fine losing with Kap or whomever then more power to you. Make no mistake though his ceiling is low and not playing Brady is very risky. Just depends on how much you're down by or trying to make up in points.
Back to Brady though, I do agree with the sentiment mentioned earlier, make a decision you can live with. If you're fine losing with Kap or whomever then more power to you. Make no mistake though his ceiling is low and not playing Brady is very risky. Just depends on how much you're down by or trying to make up in points.
I'm going to go ahead and make that mistake because I don't agree with what you are saying. He sure is risky and he sure does have a super low floor but he has started 8 games, had two bad games, 3 solid games and 3 games where he hit 26,29 and 37 and faces the defense giving up the most fantasy points on the season to QB's. So don't agree on the low ceiling, but 100% on low floor.
Also, and my last post on this. 6 weeks this season they both started same week. Brady did not go 6-0 those weeks but 4-2 vs Kap for better fantasy games so Kap outscoring him is not really outlandish or something. But of course Brady was better and in totality averaged 4.3 fantasy points more per game than Kap over that period and yes that takes into account the almost zero game versus the Bears. But Brady faces the stingiest fantasy pass defense in the NFL and Kap faces the most lenient fantasy pass defense in the NFL, the gap between fantasy scoring allowed to QB's by both of those teams is almost double the gap that Brady had outscored Kap since he took over. I get disagreement, I get why you would not want to sit Brady or trust Kap, but when I hear people saying no way they sit Brady for anyone or anyone other than Rodgers/Brees you just strike me as one of those big name fantasy hunters.
As a side note, due to weather and matchups, I would start Cousins over every QB this week.
flipcuplegend
Footballguy
Ummm I just mentioned Brees not being a for sure start based off his last two games and the matchups so not sure how I'm a "big name fantasy hunter"
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Just because I quoted you did not mean that particular line was directed at you.
ETA-looking back at how I wrote that I see where you are coming from, I think I'd have thought same thing as you did. In that case "you" did not mean "you" but in meant people in general. I only quoted you to reply to the ceiling aspect of Kap. Sorry for confusion.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Where this all gets a little hazy is ATL has allowed a lot of passing fantasy points and Kaep has earned anywhere from 1/4 to 1/3 of his fantasy scoring from running the football (depending upon scoring system). Kaep has only had 2 good games passing this year. I have no idea how ATL has done against QB that run a lot, so hard to get a true sense.
Also of note, the Falcons have faced some pretty tough QBs this year . . . Winston twice, Carr, Brees, Newton, Wilson, Rivers, Wilson, Rodgers, so that might also explain why they have allowed a lot of fantasy scoring to QBs.
Also of note, the Falcons have faced some pretty tough QBs this year . . . Winston twice, Carr, Brees, Newton, Wilson, Rivers, Wilson, Rodgers, so that might also explain why they have allowed a lot of fantasy scoring to QBs.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not without Vance McDonald he hasn't. Missing weapons, and I'm not sure the Niners won't deliberately tank this game to keep their record depressed.
Kaep has had bigger games. He isn't likely to this week.
Falcons also gave up 225+ yards passing to noted luminaries Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Paxton Lynch. Kaep should be able to do that and run for 40+. I like him quite a bit as an upside play this week.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I feel like the Falcons will make this a statement game.
People still question their validity as a playoff contender, they're going to put a beatdown on SF.
Atlanta has an underrated defense and the 49ers don't travel particularly well this year. And they're likely without 2 of their best receivers, McDonald (IR) being the biggest downgrade. Torrey Smith didn't practice, nor did Joe Staley. While Droughn practiced, he's banged up with a rib injury too which is a tough one for a pass catching RB.
And not for nothing, Kaep was included on the injury report with a neck injury yesterday - mid-week additions are always something to be concerned about.
This has the feel of a 38-6 game. and not the good kind, where the losing QB gets a bunch of garbage time points, either.
Hard to trust in the fantasy playoffs.
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TheFanatic
Footballguy
All the comps showing what Brady has done over the last 5 or whatever meetings against the Broncos is doesn't really work here for me. The Denver D has only been this dominant the last couple years. And how many times in those games over the 5 or so meetings did he have Gronk? The Denver D is much better than it was in say the 2012 meeting of the two teams and Brady is throwing without Gronk. Also, this game is in Denver. Of those last 5 or so meetings, how many were in Denver?
There's a lot more to this than simply taking the historical data and averaging it out for this contest.
With all that being said, I'm playing against Brady this week so he's going to go for 400 yards and 3 TD's and probably a naked boot for a rushing TD too.
There's a lot more to this than simply taking the historical data and averaging it out for this contest.
With all that being said, I'm playing against Brady this week so he's going to go for 400 yards and 3 TD's and probably a naked boot for a rushing TD too.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
so you like a guy who likely has a ceiling of 225/1 maybe 2 tds and 40 yards rushing over a guy with a FLOOR that you said was 225/1/2?
No, Kapernick's ceiling is way higher than that. His mean is probably 225/1.5 and 40 rushing. I would put his ceiling at around 335/3 and 100/1 rushing.so you like a guy who likely has a ceiling of 225/1 maybe 2 tds and 40 yards rushing over a guy with a FLOOR that you said was 225/1/2?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
yeah... we're pretty much done here
guy gets benched a weekago and his ceiling is almost 450 total yards and 4 tds.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
The only reason losers are going to be us in this thread, because if Brady goes out and puts up a monster game we will have to hear Dr. Brew spam the thread on how smart he was, if Brady sucks then we get everyone else coming in and trolling Dr. Brew and talking about how smart they are.
need2know
Footballguy
Bruce Leroy
Footballguy
My opponent is benching Brady for Rivers.
I wouldn't bench Brady but hopefully it works out for me
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
After losing McDonald, likely without T.Smith and without Staley.yeah... we're pretty much done here
guy gets benched a weekago and his ceiling is almost 450 total yards and 4 tds.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
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