Who is the "best value" RB this year? (1 Viewer)

[ZzZ]

In high performance leagues and on a per game played basis, what top 30 RB has most overperformed his draft projection spot?

hint: it is not F.Gore.

Then whom? you may ask. I'll let you thrash around a bit and be surprised yourself but this RB has been the least hyped, least talked about yet best valued RB of the year.

Z

 

[Mario Kart]

Deuce or Ahman

 

[thatguy]

MBIII or MJD

 

[Blue-Kun]

Best Value RB's?

Maurice-Jones Drew - Currently sitting around 15-17th place in most leagues and usually went in the last 3 rounds of drafts, if at all.

Travis Henry - Typically went in the 15th-16th round, yet he's got an average of 12.2 pts per game. In my leagues he's right behind MJD.

MBIII - Also way up there points wise, moreso than the first 2, but also MBIII was drafted in a late mid-round in most leagues.

Other 'high round' candidates include Gore and Deuce.

 

[ZzZ]

MBIII or MJD

Good guesses but MBIII and MJD not in top 30 (just missed). Again, this is per game played and high perf. Also, these guys are not what I would call "least talked about".

 

[ren hoek]

Just taking this moment to make a posting that wasn't GoW-related.

 

[ZzZ]

Best Value RB's?Maurice-Jones Drew - Currently sitting around 15-17th place in most leagues and usually went in the last 3 rounds of drafts, if at all.Travis Henry - Typically went in the 15th-16th round, yet he's got an average of 12.2 pts per game. In my leagues he's right behind MJD.MBIII - Also way up there points wise, moreso than the first 2, but also MBIII was drafted in a late mid-round in most leagues. Other 'high round' candidates include Gore and Deuce.

Already talked about MBIII and MJD. Dang, I forgot about T.Henry: he was around RB40 going into the draft and sits at RB12 -- a 28 spot difference. So, he is probably the top 30 winner. I am looking for someone in the top 10.

 

[ZzZ]

Not Duece : he was around RB30 going into the draft and is sitting at RB16 -- a 14 difference.

Already said not Gore.

 

[thatguy]

chester taylor

 

[ZzZ]

chester taylor

Nope. Chester was around RB20 going into the draft and sitting at RB10 today -- only a 10 spot difference.

 

[delusional]

FWP

Kevin Jones

Fred Taylor

 

[The_Borg]

I think I have it. Fred Taylor was the 27th RB according to David Dodds on 9/4. He is currently around 7 which is a leap of 20.

 

[ZzZ]

I think I have it. Fred Taylor was the 27th RB according to David Dodds on 9/4. He is currently around 7 which is a leap of 20.

Nope. He is only RB17 on a per game basis in a high performance league.

 

[thatguy]

addai?

 

[ZzZ]

FWPKevin JonesFred Taylor

Nope.FWP: draft=RB15-18. now=RB9. 10 max difference.K.Jones: draft=RB20-ish. now=RB6. 14 difference.Freddie: already mentioned. Nope.

 

[ZzZ]

addai?

Nope. draft=RB30. now=RB14. 16 difference.

 

[delusional]

heh dillon

 

[ZzZ]

heh dillon

Nope. Not in the top 30 in a HIGH performance league.

 

[delusional]

heh dillon

Nope. Not in the top 30 in a HIGH performance league.

Ok what is your scoring for HP?

 

[The_Borg]

I think you need to define the parameters of a "high performance league."

 

[ZzZ]

Without getting into the scoring of the high performance league, the winner is...

AHMAN GREEN. (kudos to Mario Kart for getting this straight away)

At the draft sitting around RB28 and now performing at RB8 -- a 20 spot difference.

I have never witnessed a top 10 back that has been such an incredible value yet has been not really even been mentioned. No "Ahman love" threads. No comeback player of the year threads. Nada. Very strange.

Z

PS. Kudos also to Blue-Kun who actually correctly guessed T.Henry as the absolute biggest bargain (but not quite in the top 10).

 

[Mario Kart]

AHMAN GREEN. (kudos to Mario Kart for getting this straight away)

 

[delusional]

drafted him too...and then traded him for mcnair...who i later dropped.../cry

 

[thayman]

Without getting into the scoring of the high performance league, the winner is...

AHMAN GREEN. (kudos to Mario Kart for getting this straight away)

At the draft sitting around RB28 and now performing at RB8 -- a 20 spot difference.

I have never witnessed a top 10 back that has been such an incredible value yet has been not really even been mentioned. No "Ahman love" threads. No comeback player of the year threads. Nada. Very strange.

Z

PS. Kudos also to Blue-Kun who actually correctly guessed T.Henry as the absolute biggest bargain (but not quite in the top 10).

I guess because he has been a bit inconsistent. Goes 14/102 this week, the week before 14/44. Only reason I can see to not have much Ahman love. I'm still a little pissed that I didn't get him in the draft

 

[ZzZ]

Without getting into the scoring of the high performance league, the winner is...

AHMAN GREEN. (kudos to Mario Kart for getting this straight away)

At the draft sitting around RB28 and now performing at RB8 -- a 20 spot difference.

I have never witnessed a top 10 back that has been such an incredible value yet has been not really even been mentioned. No "Ahman love" threads. No comeback player of the year threads. Nada. Very strange.

Z

PS. Kudos also to Blue-Kun who actually correctly guessed T.Henry as the absolute biggest bargain (but not quite in the top 10).

I guess because he has been a bit inconsistent. Goes 14/102 this week, the week before 14/44. Only reason I can see to not have much Ahman love. I'm still a little pissed that I didn't get him in the draft

W1 20/110/3 3/22/0W2 16/42/0 6/48/0

W3 22/63/0 8/68/1

W4 OUT

W5 OUT

W6 BYE

W7 18/118/1 0/0/0

W8 21/106/2 2/27/0

W9 23/122/0 1/8/0

W10 22/55/0 0/0/0

W11 13/28/0 1/0/0

W12 14/44/1 6/46/0

W13 14/102/0 4/38/0

PG 18/79/0.4 3/26/0.1

Above are Ahman's weekly stats. While I would agree that W10 (against the Vikings stellar rushing D) and W11 (GB thoroughly whupped by NE) were turds, I would argue that the weeks that he lacked rushing yards he offset by the number and yardage from his receptions; thus, I do not think this shows up as inconsistancy in high performance leagues.

Again, I still do not understand how the #8 RB in this year's fantasy world, and gotten at such a bargain, can have such little noise. No noise from the boards. No noise from the "experts". Not even any noise from the FBG's and they had him ranked higher than most.

Very

Z

No, I am not a GB fan. Really.

 

[Chaz McNulty]

I would say the only competition for A Green would be LT.

LT was being drafted anywhere in the top 3 (Johnson' Alexander, and LT). If you give LT an average draft position of #2, it can be argued that he was the "best value" pick of the draft. Only because he is so far ahead of the next RB.

 

[Ozymandias]

Brandon Jacobs.

Average draft position in Antsports was 49. He is currently sitting at #18 in our league, which represents a jump of 31.

 

[Evilhomer3k]

In the leagues I'm in LT isn't just outpeforming the next RB, he's outperforming EVERYONE by a huge margin. He's scoring more than the 8/9 running backs in 2 of my 3 leagues. Who else is worth a first and second round draft pick?

 

[ZzZ]

Brandon Jacobs.Average draft position in Antsports was 49. He is currently sitting at #18 in our league, which represents a jump of 31.

Not even close. Jacobs is RB40 in a high performance league. 1 yard TD plunges are about equivalant to 25 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving, or 3 receptions.

 

[CalBear]

It depends how you measure, but I think LT represents the best value at RB even if he was taken at #1. He's provided 226 VBD points, when the #2 RB is providing 140; a difference of 86 VBD points. Ahman Green has scored just 134 points total; he is 86 points above RB#50.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Got to be LT

 

[ZzZ]

I would say the only competition for A Green would be LT.

LT was being drafted anywhere in the top 3 (Johnson' Alexander, and LT). If you give LT an average draft position of #2, it can be argued that he was the "best value" pick of the draft. Only because he is so far ahead of the next RB.

We may take this thread a bit off-track as I was really talking about "best value" from a RB# perspective, but I'll snag the bait and throw another line out there for people...Intuitively LT would seem to be the "best value" from a fantasy point differential standpoint. "Best value" defined as the difference between Player A's actual fantasy points versus the actual fantasy points of whichever player that is currently sitting in Player A's draft RB# spot. In the LT example, LT's actual points less the current RB2 (average LT draft spot). OK. Now the shocker...

Believe it or not, per the above definition, LT is NOT this year's "best value" RB (on a per game basis in a high performance league). If not LT, WHO IS IT??

Z

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

It depends how you measure, but I think LT represents the best value at RB even if he was taken at #1.

Yes, I was popping in here to say the same thing. LT has outperformed reasonable expectations for the #1 pick by a huge margin.I would define value this way . . . difference in (a) auction price if the auction were held at the end of the season and (b) his actual auction price from before the season started. Not ratio, but difference.LT probably went for 35% to 50% of a team's salary cap before the season started. If an auction were held now (and the fantasy season replayed based on this year's stats) LT would probably go for 75% of a team's salary cap (although I am just spit-balling that number, not having tried to calculate his actual value). That's a difference 25%-40% of a team's salary cap; I doubt anyone else would come close.

 

[gman74]

Brandon Jacobs.Average draft position in Antsports was 49. He is currently sitting at #18 in our league, which represents a jump of 31.

Not even close. Jacobs is RB40 in a high performance league. 1 yard TD plunges are about equivalant to 25 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving, or 3 receptions.

wrong a td plunge is worth 60 yards rush /rec or 6 catches

 

[ZzZ]

It depends how you measure, but I think LT represents the best value at RB even if he was taken at #1.

Yes, I was popping in here to say the same thing. LT has outperformed reasonable expectations for the #1 pick by a huge margin.I would define value this way . . . difference in (a) auction price if the auction were held at the end of the season and (b) his actual auction price from before the season started. Not ratio, but difference.

LT probably went for 35% to 50% of a team's salary cap before the season started. If an auction were held now (and the fantasy season replayed based on this year's stats) LT would probably go for 75% of a team's salary cap (although I am just spit-balling that number, not having tried to calculate his actual value). That's a difference 25%-40% of a team's salary cap; I doubt anyone else would come close.

Check out my response to Chaz. Instead of calculating auction prices, you can use my easy yet valid definition of "best value": the difference between Player A's actual fantasy points versus the actual fantasy points of whichever player that is currently sitting in Player A's draft RB# spot.Using this definition, in a very high performance league on a per game basis, LT is NOT the "best value" RB this year.

Z

 

[Lemmiwinks]

OK, maybe in a high performance league, whatever that might be, but in most normal 6 pt TD 1 pt for 10 yards leagues LT's huge season is clearly the best.

 

[ZzZ]

OK, maybe in a high performance league, whatever that might be, but in most normal 6 pt TD 1 pt for 10 yards leagues LT's huge season is clearly the best.

Of course LT's season is clearly the best. We are not talking about that. We are talking about the "best value" RB and, in a high performance league (similarly defined as FBG's definition of a "high performance") on a per game played basis, LT is not the best value.Even though LT is the "best value" RB in a "regular" performance league (not basic) the mystery "best value" player that I am referring to is probably closer to LT's "value" than you might think. Check it out.Z

 

[norton17]

I disagree, LT can be the best value.

The other options at #1 overall were Shawn Alexander and Larry Johnson.

If you sat at 1.01 and took LJ instead of LT then you need a later round "value" pick like Ahman to make up the difference.

If you took SA at 1.01... you need 14 more "value" picks like Ahman b/c you're screwed.

In my league LT alone is equal to these pairs of RB's this year:

Larry Johnson (#2 in rb scoring ) and Shawn Alexander

Steven Jackson (#3 in rb) and Thomas Jones (#17)

Frank Gore (#5) and Deuce McAllister (#12)

Tiki Barber (#7) and Chester Taylor (#8)

So basically LT has been = to two top 10 RB's.... thats value IMO.

You can compare value based on where they are drafted but "True value" is the value as compared to the other players at their respective positions.

And this year LT is KING

 

[MDSkinner]

I disagree, LT can be the best value.The other options at #1 overall were Shawn Alexander and Larry Johnson.If you sat at 1.01 and took LJ instead of LT then you need a later round "value" pick like Ahman to make up the difference.If you took SA at 1.01... you need 14 more "value" picks like Ahman b/c you're screwed.In my league LT alone is equal to these pairs of RB's this year:Larry Johnson (#2 in rb scoring ) and Shawn AlexanderSteven Jackson (#3 in rb) and Thomas Jones (#17)Frank Gore (#5) and Deuce McAllister (#12)Tiki Barber (#7) and Chester Taylor (#8)So basically LT has been = to two top 10 RB's.... thats value IMO.You can compare value based on where they are drafted but "True value" is the value as compared to the other players at their respective positions.And this year LT is KING

Clearly "value" is subjective. But I agree with norton, no matter what the difference between where they were projected and where they are now (Ahman being a differential of 20 or whatever), LT is the best value by my subjective definition of the word.

 

[Archie Bunker]

OK, maybe in a high performance league, whatever that might be, but in most normal 6 pt TD 1 pt for 10 yards leagues LT's huge season is clearly the best.

Of course LT's season is clearly the best. We are not talking about that. We are talking about the "best value" RB and, in a high performance league (similarly defined as FBG's definition of a "high performance") on a per game played basis, LT is not the best value.Even though LT is the "best value" RB in a "regular" performance league (not basic) the mystery "best value" player that I am referring to is probably closer to LT's "value" than you might think. Check it out.Z

One flaw in your argument is that you are strictly looking at ADP vs. current ranking. The relationship between points scored (which is most important) and ranking is not linear. A better assessment might be actual points vs anticipated points based on ADP. using your logic, a Noah Herron would be the absolute best value, ranking somewhere in the 40s vs. being undrafted 99+% of the time.

 

[bjabrad]

I know everyone has different scoring systems and is using different preseason ADP's but my winner is MJD who showed ADP of 60 for RB's and in my league is #11 in RB scoring for a 49 place difference compared to Green with ADP of RB31 and is currently RB12.

Where do you other guys have MJD's ADP and current RB scoring position. If your point is that MJD wasn't inside the top 30 RB's during predraft then I understand but MJD is the #10 total scoring RB in my league which means that he played more games than Green which makes him more valuable any way you slice it.

Interesting topic but the average points angle make it too arbitrary since it doesn't factor in the total number of games played.

 

[ZzZ]

I disagree, LT can be the best value.

The other options at #1 overall were Shawn Alexander and Larry Johnson.

If you sat at 1.01 and took LJ instead of LT then you need a later round "value" pick like Ahman to make up the difference.

If you took SA at 1.01... you need 14 more "value" picks like Ahman b/c you're screwed.

In my league LT alone is equal to these pairs of RB's this year:

Larry Johnson (#2 in rb scoring ) and Shawn Alexander

Steven Jackson (#3 in rb) and Thomas Jones (#17)

Frank Gore (#5) and Deuce McAllister (#12)

Tiki Barber (#7) and Chester Taylor (#8)

So basically LT has been = to two top 10 RB's.... thats value IMO.

You can compare value based on where they are drafted but "True value" is the value as compared to the other players at their respective positions.

And this year LT is KING

Clearly "value" is subjective. But I agree with norton, no matter what the difference between where they were projected and where they are now (Ahman being a differential of 20 or whatever), LT is the best value by my subjective definition of the word.

Fair points.I had two definitions of value but kept the same groundrules (top 30 RB (changed to top 10 when T.Henry unexpectedly stood out), based on per games played, in a very high performance league) ...

The first definition was quite simple (the difference between RB# actual and RB# at draft time) and AHMAN GREEN came out the surprise winner. He is RB8 today and was sitting at RB28 in the draft -- a 20 spot difference. During the discussion, I agreed that a value definition should be based on fantasy points, so onto...

The second definition which is the fantasy points differential between the current points of the player in question and the points of the player that is in his draft RB spot now. Therefore, given this assumption, BRIAN WESTBROOK standouts as the best value RB this year, as his current PPG versus the RB13 today (which was his projected draft position) is a bigger point differential than even LT versus RB2. Even in regular performance leagues, LT just edges Westbrook.

Interesting? Enlightening? or am I off base?

Regardless, if not the best RB values this year, I think you would have to agree that WESTBROOK and AHMAN have been extremely good value RBs this year.

Z

 

[MLBrandow]

I love how people are debating over whatever question they feel like answering, rather than the question that was posed.

 

[David Yudkin]

Here's what I did. I took the average points scored in a standard scoring league for each RB ranking over the past 5 seasons to determine an average points scored per ranking. In that time, the RB1 has averaged 351 points per year, the RB2 316, the RB3 304 and so forth. I then adjusted those totals to reflect having only played 3/4 of the season to date. I then found the ADP data heading into the season and compared the ADP ranking to the associated point total for that slot. For example, Rudi Johnson had an ADP of RB8 and has scored 150 fantasy points so far. The average for the RB8 over the past 5 years (reduced to reflect only 3/4 of the season played) is 175. So Rudi would score a -25 for value. Here were the results based on the Top 30 ADP:

Tomlinson 80

Alexander -165

LJohnson 31

Barber -55

Jackson 2

James -72

Brown -51

RJohnson -25

Jordan -104

Williams -62

Portis -42

McGahee -46

Westbrook 60

Parker 51

Bush -16

Dunn -7

KJones 24

JJones -10

CTaylor 40

Droughns -29

Foster -28

Lewis 7

Dillon 10

Gore 78

TJones 27

MBell -14

FTaylor 43

Addai 63

McAllister 51

TBell 6

Guys not drafted in the Top 30 but currently ranked in the Top 30:

Barber III 78

Jones-Drew 98

Green 49

Henry 72

Maroney 28

Betts 51

Jacobs 43

So of all RB in a standard scoring league, Jones-Drew has exceeded his expected production level the most, and of guys drafted in the Top 30 the most valuable has been Tomlinson.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

I disagree, LT can be the best value.

The other options at #1 overall were Shawn Alexander and Larry Johnson.

If you sat at 1.01 and took LJ instead of LT then you need a later round "value" pick like Ahman to make up the difference.

If you took SA at 1.01... you need 14 more "value" picks like Ahman b/c you're screwed.

In my league LT alone is equal to these pairs of RB's this year:

Larry Johnson (#2 in rb scoring ) and Shawn Alexander

Steven Jackson (#3 in rb) and Thomas Jones (#17)

Frank Gore (#5) and Deuce McAllister (#12)

Tiki Barber (#7) and Chester Taylor (#8)

So basically LT has been = to two top 10 RB's.... thats value IMO.

You can compare value based on where they are drafted but "True value" is the value as compared to the other players at their respective positions.

And this year LT is KING

Clearly "value" is subjective. But I agree with norton, no matter what the difference between where they were projected and where they are now (Ahman being a differential of 20 or whatever), LT is the best value by my subjective definition of the word.

Fair points.I had two definitions of value but kept the same groundrules (top 30 RB (changed to top 10 when T.Henry unexpectedly stood out), based on per games played, in a very high performance league) ...

The first definition was quite simple (the difference between RB# actual and RB# at draft time) and AHMAN GREEN came out the surprise winner. He is RB8 today and was sitting at RB28 in the draft -- a 20 spot difference. During the discussion, I agreed that a value definition should be based on fantasy points, so onto...

The second definition which is the fantasy points differential between the current points of the player in question and the points of the player that is in his draft RB spot now. Therefore, given this assumption, BRIAN WESTBROOK standouts as the best value RB this year, as his current PPG versus the RB13 today (which was his projected draft position) is a bigger point differential than even LT versus RB2. Even in regular performance leagues, LT just edges Westbrook.

Interesting? Enlightening? or am I off base?

Regardless, if not the best RB values this year, I think you would have to agree that WESTBROOK and AHMAN have been extremely good value RBs this year.

Z

NICE. My three starting RB's are LT, Westbrook and Green. Championship!

 

[Fantasy Man]

IMO, LT can't be the best "value" RB because he wasn't available to be drafted by everyone.

Most valuable, absolutely, 100% no doubt, but doesn't qualify to be best value.

 

[Marc Levin]

projected draft position

Here's why you are losing everyone.Every draft is different, and you are defining value based on pre-draft projections, which are not necessarily the player's actual draft spot.The other definitions of value are more "actual" than yours.Curious - what are you using as preseason "projections?" And does your "high performance" scoring include PPR?

 

[Marc Levin]

WESTBROOK and AHMAN have been extremely good value RBs this year.

And so are Fred T, M J-D, Deuce, Gore . . .

 

[pettifogger]

Here's what I did. I took the average points scored in a standard scoring league for each RB ranking over the past 5 seasons to determine an average points scored per ranking. In that time, the RB1 has averaged 351 points per year, the RB2 316, the RB3 304 and so forth. I then adjusted those totals to reflect having only played 3/4 of the season to date. I then found the ADP data heading into the season and compared the ADP ranking to the associated point total for that slot. For example, Rudi Johnson had an ADP of RB8 and has scored 150 fantasy points so far. The average for the RB8 over the past 5 years (reduced to reflect only 3/4 of the season played) is 175. So Rudi would score a -25 for value. Here were the results based on the Top 30 ADP:Tomlinson 80Alexander -165LJohnson 31Barber -55Jackson 2James -72Brown -51RJohnson -25Jordan -104Williams -62Portis -42McGahee -46Westbrook 60Parker 51Bush -16Dunn -7KJones 24JJones -10CTaylor 40Droughns -29Foster -28Lewis 7Dillon 10Gore 78TJones 27MBell -14FTaylor 43Addai 63McAllister 51TBell 6Guys not drafted in the Top 30 but currently ranked in the Top 30:Barber III 78Jones-Drew 98Green 49Henry 72Maroney 28Betts 51Jacobs 43So of all RB in a standard scoring league, Jones-Drew has exceeded his expected production level the most, and of guys drafted in the Top 30 the most valuable has been Tomlinson.

I like this system because it essentially handicaps the players by ADP. I drafted #6 and #8 in my two leagues this year, so the "value" of LT, Johnson or Alexander was a moot point as they were long gone. The only question is, with what is available at your pick, what is the best return? ADP serves the purpose because even if each league is different, it measures roughly who should be available at a certain point in the draft and the chart above relates to what you should expect/hope for at that spot.

 

[ZzZ]

Here's what I did. I took the average points scored in a standard scoring league for each RB ranking over the past 5 seasons to determine an average points scored per ranking. In that time, the RB1 has averaged 351 points per year, the RB2 316, the RB3 304 and so forth. I then adjusted those totals to reflect having only played 3/4 of the season to date. I then found the ADP data heading into the season and compared the ADP ranking to the associated point total for that slot. For example, Rudi Johnson had an ADP of RB8 and has scored 150 fantasy points so far. The average for the RB8 over the past 5 years (reduced to reflect only 3/4 of the season played) is 175. So Rudi would score a -25 for value. Here were the results based on the Top 30 ADP:

Tomlinson 80

Alexander -165

LJohnson 31

Barber -55

Jackson 2

James -72

Brown -51

RJohnson -25

Jordan -104

Williams -62

Portis -42

McGahee -46

Westbrook 60

Parker 51

Bush -16

Dunn -7

KJones 24

JJones -10

CTaylor 40

Droughns -29

Foster -28

Lewis 7

Dillon 10

Gore 78

TJones 27

MBell -14

FTaylor 43

Addai 63

McAllister 51

TBell 6

Guys not drafted in the Top 30 but currently ranked in the Top 30:

Barber III 78

Jones-Drew 98

Green 49

Henry 72

Maroney 28

Betts 51

Jacobs 43

So of all RB in a standard scoring league, Jones-Drew has exceeded his expected production level the most, and of guys drafted in the Top 30 the most valuable has been Tomlinson.

Good stuff and a good way to calculate "best value". Even though MJD is the best value in your calcs, you have exactly proved my point -- I bet if you did this on a points per game and high performance league* basis (my orginal assumptions), WESTBROOK and AHMAN and T.HENRY (Blue-Kun's find) would float to or near the top. My main point of the thread was not the exact numbers, rather, to point out that there were players like AHMAN and WESTBROOK that are of extremly high value compared to where they were drafted and they have had little to no "buzz" about them. We listen and even participate in the LT, T.Bell, Gore, etc lovefest ad naseum -- I would argue the Sharks should be evaluating the true best draft values, understanding why they became such good value, and figuring out how to leverage that knowledge for next year's draft.

I would also think that since successful drafting is all about finding the best value, FBG's would have long ago picked up on this concept and done their own expert in-depth analysis as it might uncover some clues to help their customers to dominate their leagues.

*Note: people keep aking about the definition of high performance league -- just use the definition that FBG has already definited in its pre-draft spreadsheets (PPR; 4 pts per TD; etc).