Who will be the biggest ADP movers by August? (1 Viewer)

[Miro Z]

Watch out for Geronimo Allison. He's already the #3 WR in a pass-happy offense and Randall Cobb, his competition for the #2 role, is clearly not the player he once was.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Yet they didn't draft an rb in an rb rich draft.  You could say that is due to Foreman, but I think it is very dangerous to put your rb eggs in a torn Achilles rb basket.

I can see the less than exciting stats from Miller like anyone else, but from week 2-8 (When Watson was playing), Miller averaged 15.4 in ppr which was the 12th highest rb ppg.  

Miller isn't a difference maker but I think he is solid rb2 this year.  I understand if someone thinks Foreman will come back and play a significant role.  That changes everything. I just don't see that happening.

Lamar Miller was Houston's 1b to Alfred Blue down the stretch last year.  Not sure why this always gets overlooked with him.

I expect Miller to get first crack at it this year but if he's not any better than last year, it's not going to take D'Onta Foreman to render him to backup status.

 

[tangfoot]

IMO a huge factor will be their record....Flacco looked really bad at times last year....BAL moved up to get the kid....most fan bases will want to see the new first round toy if the season is toast...a bad record means a a higher draft pick and at some point they will want to see what they have in the kid to help prepare for the next draft, and the one after that, etc....personally I think he gets a shot at some point injury to Flacco or no injury...

Sure it's only June, but...

https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/eisenberg-starting-quarterback-is-not-a-competition-joe-flacco-is-simply-superio

 

[Biabreakable]

I think you’re missing the point of thread. Any players that are only going to be adjusted based on individual league intricacies probably shouldn’t be on the list. These are supposed to be the “biggest” movers. If a players is only going to be moving a round or only moving in certain leagues than they probably aren’t going to be the biggest movers.

Biabreakable also posted a link to the Draft Calculator ADP as a reference.

I think I found some better ADP as it was pointed out that other ADP seems out of date in several areas.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Watch out for Geronimo Allison. He's already the #3 WR in a pass-happy offense and Randall Cobb, his competition for the #2 role, is clearly not the player he once was.

I dont think gb spent 3 picks on wrs because they had allison penciled in for some big role

 

[Chaka]

Baltimore is not benching Flacco, probably not under any circumstances but certainly not before they are officially eliminated from the playoffs.

 

[massraider]

I dont think gb spent 3 picks on wrs because they had allison penciled in for some big role

Pack have Adams, and Cobb on last year of contract.  The WR depth chart is thin, and still is after drafting three WRs.  They just need bodies.  

Any of these WRs makes noise in August, they will fly up ADP.  

 

[Bronco Billy]

Would someone please explain to me how saying WR X has an 7th round ADP, or is being drafted 75 helps inform my decision for my league(s)?

From my perspective I have no idea what kind of league that ADP represents. Is it RB heavy? Super-flex? WR/TE combo? 6 points for all TDs? Yardage league? PPR? 1/2 PPR? etc.

Why doesn't it make more sense to say that WR X is being drafted as the 28 WR off the board? Sure that format doesn't cover every scenario as some guys move up or down a bit in PPR leagues vs non-PPR leagues but, from my perspective, it covers a lot more ground than saying a guy has a 7th round ADP.

Please help me understand what I am missing.

It’s ADP and most people are speaking from the perspective of approximately a 12 team 1/2/3/1 w/ 1 flex ppr league, even if that model does not match the league they play in.  Then maybe in your discussion explain why your opinion might vary a bit because of [name the starters/roster/scoring/rules] that differeniates your league and thus why your opinion is a bit more diverse.  That is certainly the case with me.

Why not join in with that assumption rather than expecting everyone here to change and match your personal preference?

.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

One of the Detroit TEs is going to win the pass-catching (or more) job and they're all beyond cheap right now.  Not sure there's much of a dropoff between Ebron and the eventual winner either.

 

[Tanner9919]

Agree with the Brissett call, I think Luck is finished. hasnt thrown in nearly two years ? I'm not a Colts' follower, but didn't Luck sign an extension within months of going on IR, or did the injury happen the following season? reason I ask is, did Luck know he was hurt and took the payday and played thru the injury?! just my opinion but I doubt he plays another down in the NFL. Brissett was on the top 5 QB accuracy charts on PFF recently..he's potentially a beast in the making.

disagree on Guice,he's good, but I wouldn't trust Jay Gruden to settle on a RB, much less make one guy a '3-down back'. I dont see it in Gruden to change his ways..seems like every season we go thru the same talk of a Redskins' RB and how he's going to be a top 10 guy. 

Mixon's value will skyrocket,Ihe's ready to be 'the guy'... didnt Cincy trade for the Bills best lineman pre-draft? that can only make their o-line better..

other's who should move up by draft day:

Alex Collins, J. Williams ( GB RB), Diggs, JuJu Smith-Shuster, K. Drake, R. Freeman.

I know it's early..

 

[Chaka]

disagree on Guice,he's good, but I wouldn't trust Jay Gruden to settle on a RB, much less make one guy a '3-down back'. I dont see it in Gruden to change his ways..seems like every season we go thru the same talk of a Redskins' RB and how he's going to be a top 10 guy. 

Yup Gruden will do what he does. Besides CT is far too talented and versatile to be relegated to a CoP role.

 

[Biabreakable]

What history of Gruden are we talking about?

2011 Cedrick Benson 273 carries

2012 BJGE 278 carries.

2013 BJGE 220 carries Giovani Benard 170 carries.

But maybe this was Marvin Lewis call? Lewis has seemed committed to this splitting of RB since 2013 even after Gruden was gone.

2014 Alfred Morris 265 carries.

2015 Morris 202 Matt Jones 144

2016 Kelly 168 Matt Jones 99 Thompson 68

2017 Perine 175 Thompson 64 Kelly 62

I have heard Gruden flat out say that he does not want to use Thompson too much. This was in the context of them using Thompson a lot early on in the season. He ended up getting hurt. The reason they were using Thompson as much as they were is because Perine was not playing well and Kelly got hurt, missed the 3rd and 5th games of the season, played sparingly in games 4 and 6. 

As far as I can tell his history is giving a RB the majority of the work if they are good enough. Guice is a better RB than Benson, Morris or the Law Firm in my opinion.When they have drafted a RB fairly high (Bernard 2nd round pick, Jones 3rd round pick) then sure they give those players more playing time. Looking to see if those rookies can take over most likely. Bernard looked like he might, but he got injured (and Gruden wasn't around then anyways). They certainly gave Jones the chance to become their starter, he wasn't good enough.

I don't look at this history and come away thinking Gruden prefers RBBC. When he has a RB good enough to be a workhorse, he has that player be one.

 

[barackdhouse]

Pack have Adams, and Cobb on last year of contract.  The WR depth chart is thin, and still is after drafting three WRs.  They just need bodies.  

Any of these WRs makes noise in August, they will fly up ADP.  

Agreed. And who would have been their 4th WR predraft? I'd have to look but I'm pretty sure it's no one being talked about. 

Really the #2 outside WR is up for grabs there. Cobb plays mostly slot, and maybe for only one more year, so that position is perhaps up for grabs as well. And that still wouldn't get us to #4 on the depth chart yet. So it's not out of the question that a couple of Packers end up on the August risers list.

 

[az_prof]

I like Hurns to rise far. He is ranked in 50s but expect him to be top 24.

 

[Biabreakable]

Not even in Dynasty.  His future is already priced into his cost, and unless you are predicting an injury to Flacco, he'll be holding a clipboard for the entire season.

It is?

According to this ADP he isn't being selected until  pick 142 or late 12th round.

According to this ranking composite he is 19th overall in rookie only drafts.

The GM is already on record saying they are building their offense around Jackson moving forward. Other reasonable speculation points towards Flacco no longer being a Ranven in 2019.

 

[tangfoot]

It is?

According to this ADP he isn't being selected until  pick 142 or late 12th round.

According to this ranking composite he is 19th overall in rookie only drafts.

The GM is already on record saying they are building their offense around Jackson moving forward. Other reasonable speculation points towards Flacco no longer being a Ranven in 2019.

Anecdotally, I've seen him go at 1.02 (superflex) and 19th overall (1st QB was 16th overall).

I don't think his price will change significantly in dynasty over the summer, but he's definitely worth a stash for 2019.

 

[Pipes]

Pack have Adams, and Cobb on last year of contract.  The WR depth chart is thin, and still is after drafting three WRs.  They just need bodies.  

Any of these WRs makes noise in August, they will fly up ADP.  

While I agree they were thin at WR Geronimo is JAG.  While he has the inside track I could see one of the rookies passing him by.  Personally I think Allison is going to be overdrafted because many feel like he's automatically the WR3 with a chance to cut into Cobb's numbers.  I don't think those people are correct. Of the group I really like Moore and think he'll be the WR3 by midseason.  You're right though one of these WR's will fly up ADP.

 

[Biabreakable]

Anecdotally, I've seen him go at 1.02 (superflex) and 19th overall (1st QB was 16th overall).

I don't think his price will change significantly in dynasty over the summer, but he's definitely worth a stash for 2019.

He is extremely valuable in superflex or start two QB leagues. 

Look at Desean Watsons ADP right now. He is the 4th QB off the board. I really like Watson, but Jackson is better than him in my view for fantasy.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Yup Gruden will do what he does. Besides CT is far too talented and versatile to be relegated to a CoP role.

Isn't that what Thompson has been his entire career, 3rd down/CoP back?

 

[Chaka]

Isn't that what Thompson has been his entire career, 3rd down/CoP back?

Past returns do not indicate future value.

~The Franklin Mint

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Past returns do not indicate future value.

~The Franklin Mint

True, but consider:

- Thompson has never been given a bigger role, even with only dreck like Perine, Kelley and Matt Jones in his way. I've long argued that he was the most talented back on the roster, and so I've rostered him (and still do) but Gruden obviously does not see Thompson as more than a 3rd down/CoP guy.

- Gruden said specifically they must improve their running game this offseason, and then they went out and drafted a rookie runner with a valuable second round pick. Guice is a heck of a talent and could have been an even earlier pick had (false) draft day rumors about some negative transgression not been spread.

- Thompson has never been able to stay healthy. Call him injury prone or just unlucky - whatever have you - but the result is the same....he's not active for a ton of weeks. Gruden has stated he must limit him to keep him healthy, in fact. You think he's bluffing or that adding more work decrease the odds Thompson misses time?

 

[Chaka]

Isn't that what Thompson has been his entire career, 3rd down/CoP back?

I should say that I think he demonstrated that he can do a lot more than just be a CoP last season.  However his track record also very much suggests that he would not hold up to the pounding of being a feature back.  I think Gruden will use Thompson in most game critical situations.  Yeah that's a vague statement and not easily defined, but I do think that Thompson is the RB who has Gruden's trust the most and I think that has to be acknowledged when drafting a guy like Guice.  Sure when they are salting away a two score game late giving the rookie valuable garbage time snaps makes sense, but I don't think Washington will be in that situation too often.   I think it will be Thompson who gets the lions share in the fourth quarters of one score games. That is on top of his likely CoP role in the first three quarters.

 

[Chaka]

Let me be clear that I think Guice will lead the team in RB touches and he is a guy to target.  But I do think his value will not be as great as where he will likely be drafted in August and Chris Thompson is a big part of the reason why.

The closer and later in the game it gets, the more Thompson will be used IMO.  Three plunges up the gut to kill the clock is one thing. But needing a few sustained drives to do the same, or running a six minute drill etc.  I think that is Thompson time.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

David Njoko TE Cleveland Browns.

Current ADP at 179 to 180.

• Recently named starter
  
• QB has improved
  
•  WRs improved, i.e. he'll get benefit from coverage matchups especially in the red zone
  
• Second year TE bump
  
• Improved as a blocker so he's not coming off the field
  

I don't think ADP has caught up to him to where he will be after people get a peek at what he does in camp. 

Right now, at this point, he's a bargain.

Browns expect big jump from David Njoku in Year 2

... Cleveland’s coaching staff believe big things await the former Miami star.

“I expect to see a huge jump,” head coach Hue Jackson said earlier this month as the team finished offseason workouts. “He’s very athletic. He can catch and run. He’s going to be one of our playmakers.”

...This past spring, the coaching staff saw significant improvements. “In the pass game, he is a much more refined route-runner than he was. He should be a dominant receiver in the red zone, especially in the higher throws, the back of the end zone and that kind of thing,” tight ends coach Greg Seamon said.

... Njoku remains one of the youngest players on the team. Drafted to Cleveland when he was 20 years old, 

 

[Tanner9919]

Jacoby Brissett - Colts' starting QB

CJ Anderson

Eli Manning

JuJu Schuster

Greg Olsen

 

[joey]

Jacoby Brissett - Colts' starting QB

Damn you. 

signed,

Dynasty Start Up Owner Who Took Luck as His Second QB in the 10th Round 

 

[Ilov80s]

I dont think gb spent 3 picks on wrs because they had allison penciled in for some big role

Those guys were all pretty late picks though so I think it's pretty unlikely the Packers expect much from any of them this season. Add in Randall Cobb is now in a walking boot and Geronimo is sure to rise in ADP.

 

[Ilov80s]

IMO a huge factor will be their record....Flacco looked really bad at times last year....BAL moved up to get the kid....most fan bases will want to see the new first round toy if the season is toast...a bad record means a a higher draft pick and at some point they will want to see what they have in the kid to help prepare for the next draft, and the one after that, etc....personally I think he gets a shot at some point injury to Flacco or no injury...

I think Flacco has been awful but I have to give him his due credit, he played some of the best football of his career during the 2nd half of last season., 64% completion and a 16 game pace of 3700 yards, 24 TDs and 10 Ints. 

 

[Bracie Smathers]

David Njoko TE Cleveland Browns.

Current ADP at 179 to 180.

• Recently named starter
  
• QB has improved
  
•  WRs improved, i.e. he'll get benefit from coverage matchups especially in the red zone
  
• Second year TE bump
  
• Improved as a blocker so he's not coming off the field
  

I don't think ADP has caught up to him to where he will be after people get a peek at what he does in camp. 

Right now, at this point, he's a bargain.

He had drop issues coming into the league but he has shown that he is a red zone weapon.

Only first preseason game but this thread is about biggest ADP movers by August and I think the stories about his drops in camp pushed his ADP even lower than where it was so he has a good shot to really improve his ADP by the end of August.

 

[Ilov80s]

He had drop issues coming into the league but he has shown that he is a red zone weapon.

Only first preseason game but this thread is about biggest ADP movers by August and I think the stories about his drops in camp pushed his ADP even lower than where it was so he has a good shot to really improve his ADP by the end of August.

The changes that have occured to the Browns potential pass catchers has definitely increased the likelihood of a Njoku break out. 

 

[Truebluey]

Jacoby Brissett - Colts' starting QB

CJ Anderson

Eli Manning

JuJu Schuster

Greg Olsen

I can't see how JuJu goes any higher than he is, especially considering Ben's concussion.

 

[-OZ-]

Gesicki, Deon Yelder and Jake butt should all move up the TE ranking (imo) with decent showing in August.

Butt seems to be getting some attention. Still waiting for the yelder train to get rolling.

 

[RushHour]

Taywan Taylor is a fair shot if the Rishard and Davis injuries linger. 

And Christine Michael of course!