Ghost Rider
Footballguy
That's a good point. He should absolutely be in the discussion. But Atlanta is not a flashy team, so Ryan is getting overlooked. Heck, the Falcons are almost being overlooked in many "best teams in the league" discussions.
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Who's MVP? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter stuckinthemuck
- Start date
sharkvegas
Footballguy
MVP was on the field... what would Cleveland be without Peyton Hillis?
Tau837
Footballguy
IMO there are only 4 candidates right now: Rivers, Peyton, Brady, and Vick.
I believe there has never been a case of the MVP award going to a player who missed 3 or more games in a non-strike season. I think for that reason, Vick has to maintain his current pace to have a chance. If he falls off the pace even a little, IMO he'll be out.
Rivers is only a candidate if (a) he maintains his current pace or very close to it and (b) the Chargers win their division and win 10+ games doing it. Iif he breaks the passing yardage record and the Chargers win 10+ games, it's hard for me to see him not winning.
IMO the odds are against Brady, because his passing/total yardage will end up being substantially less than these other contenders. Sure, the Pats could win 14 games. But at least one of these other guys will likely lead his team to 11 wins and have better overall numbers by a good margin. I don't think Brady wins in that scenario.
I believe there has never been a case of the MVP award going to a player who missed 3 or more games in a non-strike season. I think for that reason, Vick has to maintain his current pace to have a chance. If he falls off the pace even a little, IMO he'll be out.
Rivers is only a candidate if (a) he maintains his current pace or very close to it and (b) the Chargers win their division and win 10+ games doing it. Iif he breaks the passing yardage record and the Chargers win 10+ games, it's hard for me to see him not winning.
IMO the odds are against Brady, because his passing/total yardage will end up being substantially less than these other contenders. Sure, the Pats could win 14 games. But at least one of these other guys will likely lead his team to 11 wins and have better overall numbers by a good margin. I don't think Brady wins in that scenario.
Man In The Box
Footballguy
2500 18/5 on the current #1 seed in the NFC. Guy is definitely in the discussion, IMO.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
How can you leave Matt Ryan out? His team is 8-2, he played spectacular in their signature win over the Ravens last week, and his numbers are comparable to those of Brady, Peyton, etc.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Because Ryan isn't playing all that well. He's doing okay, of course, but he put up better numbers as a rookie. He's 10th in passing yards, 6th in completions, 5th in passing TDs and 5th in attempts He's not in the top 10 in yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt or adjusted net yards per attempt. When your best statistical ranking comes in the attempts category, you're not having a great year. Oh, and he happens to have the best WR in football right now and still isn't putting up great numbers. Ryan's good, of course, but the formula of Great QB + Winning Record = MVP is just lazy thinking. He's not even the MVQB in his own division. And he's not the MVP of his own team.
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NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
The original list was seriously flawed to begin with (Eli???), but much like the Division races and the league in general, it is still wide open this year.Peyton - His chances took a big hit yesterday, but obviously still a contenderEli - Never should have been on list in first placeRogers - Climbing fast, @ATL & @NE loom large Tomlinson - See EliFoster - Horrid defense is like a 2 ton anchor tied to his ankle and his mvp chancesPeterson - Not this year, not on that teamWhite - Still in the running, but very hard to beat the QBs Brees - Climbing, @BAL & @ATL will be critical as will limiting his ints the rest of the wayRivers and Brady obviously should have been on the original list, Vick and Ryan make the list nowVick - If he stays healthy and plays really well the rest of the way (I wouldn't bet on either) he is a serious contender.Ryan - A dark horse for sure; wins (GB,TB & NOS) will be especially critical to his chances Brady - W's are more important than yards and if they keep winning (NYJ & GB could be key) you have to like his chances Rivers - He has a real shot if he continues to play so well AND "IF" SD can play up to their capabilities and finish the season strong. By strong I mean they can not lose any more than 1 game the rest of the way (can't see an MVP going to a 9-7 team).
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Vick's been very good against bad teams. His numbers last night were good but not spectacular. Close to 300 total yards. One total TD. That's the first good defense he's played against and his numbers showed it. The idea of prorating his numbers at this point seems premature, and prorating them to 16 games when he might play 12 is great for talking about pace, but not for talking about MVP numbers this year. And it would be difficult enough politically for the NFL to give him the comeback player of the year award, let alone the MVP. The hype machine is still feeling out the public opinion on Vick to see what people think. Still, the stat that helps him the most is his winning percentage. Again, it's against one good team and a bunch of lesser teams, but if he helps Philly win out, then he's going to have a much stronger case. But Brady has signature wins now against Indy, San Diego, and Pittsburgh, and has played without his RB1, WR1, and left tackle for most of the season, his WR2 is coming off ACL surgery, his WR3 has been hurt off and on, and he's playing with rookie TEs and other teams' roster cuts at the offensive skill positions, yet he's still led his team to the best record in the NFL and the highest scoring offense in the NFL despite having one of the worst defenses in the NFL. I don't know if you can have a more impressive resume than that at this point in the season.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
What's funny is that right now, Manning and Rivers wouldn't even be in the playoffs, Brady is on a wild card team, and Vick hasn't played enough to be the MVP...yet Matt Ryan is not a viable candidate, according to Chase, despite playing great for an 8-2 team that would be the 1 seed in the NFC right now, because his stats aren't eye-popping enough. And we all know that stats are all that matter, right, Chase?
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Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Matt Ryan is certainly faring better than Rivers in the "MVP whose team hasn't been hamstrung by special teams mistakes" race. And Mark Sanchez is playing better than Peyton Manning, as he has only half as many losses.
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NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
To some, stats are all that matter; to me it depends on what "best" or "Most Valuable" means to you. Who had the "better" "MVP" game in NE yesterday, Manning or Brady? To me the answer is obvious, but stat-a-philes who put a premium on formulas, ypa's, passing yards, passing tds and discount wins would probably dissagree with me.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Say what you want about Sanchez, but the Jets lost the two games he played poorly in, and he has been huge at the end of some close games for them, so he is extremely valuable in that the Jets need him to play well to win. He wouldn't be in the top tier of MVP candidates, but he is another good example of someone who is really valuable despite not having eye-popping stats. Considering that neither the Jets defense nor running game is as good as last year, and yet they are 8-2, is a testament to their passing game. Sanchez has really surprised me, as he looked so bad in that game vs. the Ravens, and I thought he had regressed, but he has played really well for the most part since.
And didn't we talk about this last year, and the point was made by someone that the MVP usually comes from a team that finishes near the top of their conference, not by a player whose teams ekes into the playoffs or something? That could hurt Rivers, who has been awesome, and is very deserving of major consideration.
And didn't we talk about this last year, and the point was made by someone that the MVP usually comes from a team that finishes near the top of their conference, not by a player whose teams ekes into the playoffs or something? That could hurt Rivers, who has been awesome, and is very deserving of major consideration.
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Chase Stuart
Footballguy
To some, they would confuse having great defense and special teams with being a good quarterback. But a careful look at a QB's numbers will tell you more than wins and losses. And Brady's numbers were much better than Manning's yesterday: Brady averaged 8.4 ANY/A to Manning's 6.6. I prefer to look at the things a QB can control when grading quarterbacks.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
I don't know that any1 could call ATLs def great and clearly you weren't talking about NEs so not sure where you are going with that."SOME" of Bradys numbers were better than Mannings yesterday and some weren't, it depends on the value you place on each. Mannings Net yards passing and Passing TDs were DOUBLE those of Brady; Mannings avg gain per pass play was 7.6 to Bradys 6.8. So if you don't really care about whether or not you win the game, couldn't you at least make an argument that Manning had a better game?Edited to add:Are you saying QBs have "NO" control over whether or not their team wins?How much weight do you place on the "throwing or not throwing the game giving away or game ending interception" category? Surely that is something the QB can most often "control"; do you have a category and weighting for not making the critical mistake at the critical time? Is there a weighting given to Ints? Probably not and imho, that is one of the reasons why you cannot simply ignore wins & losses and why it is difficult if not impossible to break football down into pure statistics of your choosing. Not saying statistical formulas are meaningless; just saying wins, losses, factors and intangibles that do not easily fit into statistical categories do matter.
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
No. Look at their turnovers. All of those extra yards are negated by the turnovers. And I am not sure I trust the argument of someone who doesn't know how to spell argument.
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Could you possible spin it anymore to fit your agenda here? Call the Patriots a "wild card team" and then pointing out the falcons are 8-2 is just LOL.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Am I wrong? And what is my agenda? I am not saying Ryan SHOULD be the MVP; I am saying he should be in the conversation. I'd still put Brady ahead of him in the convo, if that makes you feel any better.
Jewell
Footballguy
Manning's yards and TDs were better yesterday, but his INTs drop his overall game yesterday a notch below Brady's. Manning's last pick was particularly Favre-like in that a more conservative throw likely would have still given his team a chance in overtime.
Asking if you are wrong........me thinks you don't understand what spin means. At least that last sentence redeems you. Ryan could be in the convo, but it's a token nomination and he has zero chance of winning unless he really turns it on the remainder of the season.Am I wrong? And what is my agenda? I am not saying Ryan SHOULD be the MVP; I am saying he should be in the conversation. I'd still put Brady ahead of him in the convo, if that makes you feel any better.
Chaka
Footballguy
He's a good QB but he's not even the MVP of his own team.
Chaka
Footballguy
I think they created the Offensive Player of the Year award to cover themselves if something like this happens.
Masked Vigilante
Footballguy
Colts play the Chargers next weekend. That's going to be a big, season defining game for both QB's IMO.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Clay Matthews.
PizzaDeliveryGuy
extra sausage
Tau837
Footballguy
This week:Manning: 38/52, 396 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 3 interceptionsRivers: 15/24, 233 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 1 interceptionSeason totals to date:Manning: 286/438, 3059 passing yards, 20 passing TDs, 7 interceptions, 94.2 QB rating, 6-4 recordRivers: 230/353, 3177 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 9 interceptions, 104.1 (unofficial) QB rating, 5-5 recordIn Rivers' last two games, he has thrown 8 TDs to the following receivers: McMichael (2), Ajirotutu (2), Floyd, Sproles, Crayton, Hester. That is a rather unimpressive list of receivers, to say the least... but they have 8 TDs in 2 games thanks to Rivers. Rivers has completed passes to 15 different players this season... that is a lot.
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
The Chargers are back to 5-5, so Rivers is now solidly in the mix here. If they can keep the recent momentum going and win the division, he's probably your huckleberry as I don't think Vick will get the nod from voters unless he gets Philly to something like a 12 or 13-win season.
Tau837
Footballguy
Rivers has the best November+December+January regular season record in NFL history, as noted in tonight's game. Hopefully the trend will continue. The upcoming Colts game will be big.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Rivers continue to improve his chances, but I think the Chargers will need to get to 10 wins (and win the division, obviously) for him to have a chance. I can't see the voters giving it to a player on a 9-7 or 8-8 team, unless Rivers really distances himself from the other QBs in numbers, which will be hard to do at this late juncture. Even if the Chargers lose to the Colts next week, their last five games are all very winnable if they keep playing well, so 10 wins is attainable.
Insein
Footballguy
Still don't know why Rivers and Ryan were left off the list in the first place but Roddy White is on there. A WR, as good as he may be, can't be the MVP. Jerry Rice was the greatest to ever play the game but without Montana throwing to him, he is nothing. WR is too reliant on the QB to be the MVP. Just the way it is.
PolishNorbi
Footballguy
Just Win Baby said:
He is 34-6 in Nov/Dec/Jan. 3 loses came in a 3 game stretch in 2008. First was the Steelers, the SB Champs, the Colts 12-4 who were in the midst of a 9 game winning streak, and the Falcons who finished 11-5. All solid teams. Rivers was 56/87 for 601yards, 2 TDs, 2 Ints in that 3 game stretch.
Polar Dude
Footballguy
Of the four QBs that have been in this discussion most recently (Rivers, Peyton, Brady, and Vick), which of them do you think have been relying on their WRs for their MVP-contending performances?
bostonfred
Footballguy
Manning and Vick
Jack Burton
Footballguy
Matt Ryan is the MVP on his own team. Without an MVP quality QB, White wouldn't be in the equation. Just ask Fitz.
bostonfred
Footballguy
After he faced the first good D of the year and put up mediocre numbers?
Jack Burton
Footballguy
He's my darkhorse. Quietly having an MVP season so far and expect he'll continue on his current path.
Chaka
Footballguy
No he's not.
the jets are easily a 4-6 team without his heroics. I am a big jet fan. A huge skeptic (because I have seen every way imaginable to lose a game) in general but what he has done their past 5 wins in the 4th qt is truly what the great ones are made of. I guess no sophomore slump for him like Ryan and Flacco encountered (and I believe Sanchez is already better than both of those qb's). Keep in mind sanchez only played one season at USC.He has to be considered for the MVP at this point. The jets are clearly a throwing team with a weaker than expected defense and run game.
Badgers Fan
Footballguy
Without Randy Moss the Patriots have beaten: Ravens, Chargers, Colts, Steelers (also lost to browns, beat vikings). He also had 19:4 td:int on the year and it's 9:0 in his last 5 weeks. Yes, it's time Tom Brady gets more hype. 8-2 beats 5-5, regardless of special teams and his stats blah blah blah, Brady has been really good too, and his team is tied for the best record in football with a dog #### defense.
Matt Ryan is putting up some big time numbers himself, he probably wont be considered for, or win, mvp, but he is definitely underrated in this race.
Overall, if as of right now i had to rank em', i'd go:
1. Tom Brady
2. Phillip Rivers
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Mike Vick (the argument is obviously games played. In games he's started and finished the eagles are 5-0. if he finishes at like 10-1 and keeps up the numbers he has, he will be as good a bet as anyone)
5. Peyton Manning
6. Matt Ryan
7. If the Texans somehow get into the playoffs, Arian Foster probably finishes top 3
some stats to play with:
Take out week 2 vs the bengals, and joe flacco has a td:int of 15:3. his overall qb rating is 92.1
Josh Freeman has the Bucs at 7-3 with a 92 qb rating and 14:5 ratio. crazy.
Mark Sanchez is a mirage. His numbers reflect his AMAZING supporting cast. That 55% completion rate should tell you a lot of the reason his numbers look good but the qb rating doesn't match. He's highly over rated and I have seen him play on an almost weekly basis, all tho he is getting better.
David Garrard somehow has a 98.5 qb rating. At this point I'm thinking this stat means nothing.
Matt Cassel has an 18:4 ratio. Damn.
I don't think Peyton or Ryan will win it. I think it comes down to brady, rivers, rodgers, vick and darkhorse Arian Foster if he keeps balling and the Texans make the playoffs with at least 9 wins.
Matt Ryan is putting up some big time numbers himself, he probably wont be considered for, or win, mvp, but he is definitely underrated in this race.
Overall, if as of right now i had to rank em', i'd go:
1. Tom Brady
2. Phillip Rivers
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Mike Vick (the argument is obviously games played. In games he's started and finished the eagles are 5-0. if he finishes at like 10-1 and keeps up the numbers he has, he will be as good a bet as anyone)
5. Peyton Manning
6. Matt Ryan
7. If the Texans somehow get into the playoffs, Arian Foster probably finishes top 3
some stats to play with:
Take out week 2 vs the bengals, and joe flacco has a td:int of 15:3. his overall qb rating is 92.1
Josh Freeman has the Bucs at 7-3 with a 92 qb rating and 14:5 ratio. crazy.
Mark Sanchez is a mirage. His numbers reflect his AMAZING supporting cast. That 55% completion rate should tell you a lot of the reason his numbers look good but the qb rating doesn't match. He's highly over rated and I have seen him play on an almost weekly basis, all tho he is getting better.
David Garrard somehow has a 98.5 qb rating. At this point I'm thinking this stat means nothing.
Matt Cassel has an 18:4 ratio. Damn.
I don't think Peyton or Ryan will win it. I think it comes down to brady, rivers, rodgers, vick and darkhorse Arian Foster if he keeps balling and the Texans make the playoffs with at least 9 wins.
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Man In The Box
Footballguy
These are the current Vegas odds on NFL MVP:
Michael Vick 11/2
Matt Ryan 7/2
Peyton Manning 7/2
Philip Rivers 3/1
Tom Brady 5/2
Field (Any Other Player) 5/2
Michael Vick 11/2
Matt Ryan 7/2
Peyton Manning 7/2
Philip Rivers 3/1
Tom Brady 5/2
Field (Any Other Player) 5/2
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Vick and the Eagles may not lose another game...I love those odds.
bostonfred
Footballguy
23 TDs, 4 INTs, best record in the NFL, running the highest scoring offense in the NFL, despite having none of the top receivers or top running backs, and having one of the worst defenses in the NFL, as he leads his team to 3 wins in 12 days including Indy and Pittsburgh.
two_dollars
Footballguy
I have a feeling they will actually lose their next game.
