CanadianNFLJunkie
Footballguy
I can see people liking the dogs to cover in 2 MAAAAYBE 3 games but to win, no. Perhaps GB or Indy can win.
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Why do people fall for the "Wild Card" teams will (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jason Wood
- Start date
Night Hawks
Footballguy
I'll take the dogs except for Carolina ATS this weekend. And on Sunday night, I'll be here telling Wood he was right. 
That's pretty tough.They won 7 out of 8, but only 1 with more than a TD difference.
So 6 games could have gone lost by an opponent last second TD.
Kansas City won 8 out of 8 and only 3 of them with less than 20
points difference.Okay, Indy has the tougher gameplan, be visitor by a 58-70 record of the opponent teams, while KC played against 47-81 record.
But each team only faced one play-off team
Indy: Ten
KC: Den
both won!
I think all 4 games could end very close and I also think there could be an upset in all four play-off games. But I don't predict them all.
The main question was: Why do so many people think there will be a lot of upsets, while history tells us, that an upset is very rare?
First of all: America loves underdogs. It's within your genoms, I think.
Second: Most of us are fans/homers for/of a team (for me GB) and so it's easy to believe, that this team would be able to win, even if it is in round two on the road.
Third: Many times, we hate a team and it's very easy to predict a loss to them, even if it is round two and at home.
Shure, real sharks shouldn't be mattered by those things.
But hey, I love this sport and I love upsets.
Therefore I predicted wins for GB and Carolina!
Hey Jason, two more upsets for the NFC in just one year, that means no upsets in the comming years if the stats won't fail again! :rotflmao:
Alias
Footballguy
Just a few more stats
Common Opponents:
Houston, Buffalo, Cleveland, Denver x2
KCC Sep 21 @Houston Won 42-14
KCC Oct 5 Denver Won 24-23
KCC Dec 7 @Denver Lost 27-45
KCC Oct 26 Buffalo Won 38-5
KCC Nov 9 Cleveland Won 41-20
IND Oct 26 Houston Won 30-21
IND Dec 21 Denver Lost 17-31
IND Jan 4 Denver Won 41-10
IND Nov 23 @Buffalo Won 17-14
IND Sep 7 @Cleveland Won 9-6
both with a 4-1 record
Points scored across common opponents:
KCC: 172-107 (34-21)
IND: 114-81 (23-16)
Prediction:
KCC 34
IND 28
I'm starting to reverse my position and will not be taking either side on a wager not even Indy getting +9 on a tease.
However I still like the over of 44 (post-tease).
Let's look at how Green Bay has been playing December:
Dec 7 Chicago Won 34-21
Dec 14 @San Diego Won 38-21
Dec 22 @Oakland Won 41-7
Dec 28 Denver Won 31-3
Jan 4 Seattle Won 33-27
(taking out the Denver game with was a gimme, average score last 4 games)
36-19
vs. Philly in December:
Dec 7 Dallas Won 36-10
Dec 15 @Miami Won 34-27
Dec 21 San Francisco Lost 28-31
Dec 27 @Washington Won 31-7
32-19
I think both can be scored on with the average scores of their last 4 games giving a slight edge to Green Bay
TD's for Ahman Green December-January of this season is at least 1 per game, with 2 TD's 3 out of the last 5 games.
I am really liking the over in this game (42), my prediction:
GBP 24
PHI 21
Common Opponents:
Houston, Buffalo, Cleveland, Denver x2
KCC Sep 21 @Houston Won 42-14
KCC Oct 5 Denver Won 24-23
KCC Dec 7 @Denver Lost 27-45
KCC Oct 26 Buffalo Won 38-5
KCC Nov 9 Cleveland Won 41-20
IND Oct 26 Houston Won 30-21
IND Dec 21 Denver Lost 17-31
IND Jan 4 Denver Won 41-10
IND Nov 23 @Buffalo Won 17-14
IND Sep 7 @Cleveland Won 9-6
both with a 4-1 record
Points scored across common opponents:
KCC: 172-107 (34-21)
IND: 114-81 (23-16)
Prediction:
KCC 34
IND 28
I'm starting to reverse my position and will not be taking either side on a wager not even Indy getting +9 on a tease.
However I still like the over of 44 (post-tease).
Let's look at how Green Bay has been playing December:
Dec 7 Chicago Won 34-21
Dec 14 @San Diego Won 38-21
Dec 22 @Oakland Won 41-7
Dec 28 Denver Won 31-3
Jan 4 Seattle Won 33-27
(taking out the Denver game with was a gimme, average score last 4 games)
36-19
vs. Philly in December:
Dec 7 Dallas Won 36-10
Dec 15 @Miami Won 34-27
Dec 21 San Francisco Lost 28-31
Dec 27 @Washington Won 31-7
32-19
I think both can be scored on with the average scores of their last 4 games giving a slight edge to Green Bay
TD's for Ahman Green December-January of this season is at least 1 per game, with 2 TD's 3 out of the last 5 games.
I am really liking the over in this game (42), my prediction:
GBP 24
PHI 21
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djcolts
Footballguy
About the difference in going 7-1 on the road for the Colts vs. 8-0 at home for the Chiefs. Comparing the opponent's OVERALL record is not accurate (47 wins for Chiefs' home game opponents vs. 58 wins for Colts' road game opponents).The Chiefs' 8 home opponents have won 14 games COMBINED on the road.That's pretty tough.They won 7 out of 8, but only 1 with more than a TD difference.
So 6 games could have gone lost by an opponent last second TD.
Kansas City won 8 out of 8 and only 3 of them with less than 20
Okay, Indy has the tougher gameplan, be visitor by a 58-70 record of the opponent teams, while KC played against 47-81 record.
But each team only faced one play-off team
Indy: Ten
KC: Den
both won!
I think all 4 games could end very close and I also think there could be an upset in all four play-off games. But I don't predict them all.
The main question was: Why do so many people think there will be a lot of upsets, while history tells us, that an upset is very rare?
First of all: America loves underdogs. It's within your genoms, I think.
Second: Most of us are fans/homers for/of a team (for me GB) and so it's easy to believe, that this team would be able to win, even if it is in round two on the road.
Third: Many times, we hate a team and it's very easy to predict a loss to them, even if it is round two and at home.
Shure, real sharks shouldn't be mattered by those things.
But hey, I love this sport and I love upsets.
Therefore I predicted wins for GB and Carolina!
Hey Jason, two more upsets for the NFC in just one year, that means no upsets in the comming years if the stats won't fail again! :rotflmao:
Chicago 1
Detroit 0
Cleveland 3
Pittsburgh 2
Denver 4
San Diego 2
Oakland 0
Buffalo 2
The Colts road opponents have won 33 COMBINED at home total (not great, but not as pitiful as 14).
Buffalo 4
Miami 4
Cleveland 2
Houston 3
Jax 5
Tennessee 7
TB 3
NO 5
BTW, NE also went 8-0, and their home opponents won 25 games on the road combined (much better than 14, which is one of the many reasons why NE is the #1 team in the consensus power rankings)
NYJ 2
Buffalo 2
Tenn 5
Miami 6
NYG 3
Cleveland 3
Dallas 4
Jax 0
Total 25
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Me thinks that no matter which of the 16 possible combinations wins, this thread will make a comeback.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Head to Head: X means they have the overall stregth in that areaINDY Kansas City X QB RB X X WR's O-line X X D-line X Linebackers X (even) X Secondary X Special T. X Coaching X HOme F. XQB's:Manning's the best in the game right now and a huge reason why many think they'll win.RB: Priest Holmes set the record for TD's this year and gets the EDge (get it) but James did have a solid ending of the season.WR's: Harrison's twice as good as anyone on K.C. and with Manning throwing him the ball spells danger.O-line: K.C. arguably the best in the business although you won't find it easy getting to Peyton Manning either.D-Line: Freeney himself gives the Colts the edge. His ability to pass rush has been huge this season and he'll make a difference in this game.Linebackers: Neither group is all that good so it's a draw in my book.Secondary: If Doss plays, I give them the edge in a close one.Special Teams: Nobody's better than Hall this year but Indy has the best kicker in the game and hasn't missed all year, simply awesome. EvenCoaching: Dungy is the guy I'm most worried about not winning the big game. Vermeil has, edge Chiefs.HOme Field: Undefeated at home, very impressive. This is a huge confidence boost going into this game. The main argument for most Chief supporters.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Philly won 8 games this year while allowing a 100 yard rusher, including some absolute monster games by the likes of Deuce and, oh yeah, AHMAN GREEN! They haven't stopped the run all year but managed to somehow go 12-4 (it's as if people forget that Philly had the best record in the NFC).So we KNOW that Philly can win games where they get run all over, it's happened all year. What we also know is that it's extremely rare for a bye week team to lose in the divisionals, and the 1 seed in the NFC hasn't lost since 1987!!!That's WHEN not IF. Philly can't stop the run. They have a bunch of smurf LBs and a DL torn apart by injuries. The Pack are possibly the best run-blocking team in the NFL. They have one of the best RBs in the league. What conclusion should you draw from this?
THAT'S the conclusion I'm making.Cheers
Portis 26
Madden Freak
That they did so was through a combination of freakish luck and some nice coaching. That won't be enough against the Packers.It really doesn't get us anywhere talking about historical precedent (eg past records of #1 NFC seeds) because the NFC has been atrociously weak this year and Philadelphia has to be the weakest #1 NFC seed in living memory. Compare this year's Philly (just to recap: erratic QB, best RB hurt, RBBC anyway, horrible skinny WRs, DL decimated, DBs hurt all year long, smurf LBs who get run over) with some of the mighty #1 seeds of the past is outrageous. There's no comparison.
It does just seem a bit more competitive this year despite the numbers. Maybe its just me falling for it finally, but, it just feels like the teams are closely matched and most of the 1/2's are beatable... ESPECIALLY in the NFC.Either way, this thread is begging for a super bump by SOMEONE and EVERYONE after the weekends games.
Saint
Footballguy
Let me start by saying I have nothing of value to add. So therefore I will make meaningless comments about what I think will happen.Indy loses to KC because Manning threw all his TDs last week. KC's defense shows up, whereas Denver's Defense never did. To say Denver has a better Def after watching last week's game is ludicrous.Tenn upsets New England because McNair is upset after throwing all those INTs last week. Tenn steps up on the Def to shutdown Brady and McNair shows why he is MVP.St. Louis stuffs Carolina. Faulk is back and will score like a fiend. Green Bay upsets Philly. Westbrook is out. McNabb has to do it on his own. Favre is playing for his father this year. Emotional strength keeps Green Bay alive.You heard it here first.The Saint
So therefore I will make meaningless comments about what I think will happen.Indy loses to KC because Manning threw all his TDs last week. KC's defense shows up, whereas Denver's Defense never did. To say Denver has a better Def after watching last week's game is ludicrous.Tenn upsets New England because McNair is upset after throwing all those INTs last week. Tenn steps up on the Def to shutdown Brady and McNair shows why he is MVP.St. Louis stuffs Carolina. Faulk is back and will score like a fiend. Green Bay upsets Philly. Westbrook is out. McNabb has to do it on his own. Favre is playing for his father this year. Emotional strength keeps Green Bay alive.You heard it here first.The Saint
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
My personal take on this is that StL is the only mortal lock to win this weekend. I simply do not see Carolina being able to hang with them. (No doubt Carolina will now win in a cakewalk and I will see this prediction bumped endlessly by the Carolina's three fans). I'm taking the Rams.I highly doubt that GB will win. I know the storyline with Favre has GB as a sentimental favorite of a lot of people, and I would love to see Favre pull one out here (sorry Woodrow). But I don't see it happening on the road in Philly. I'm taking Philly here.Indianapolis has a legitimate shot against KC. The Chiefs are not as good as their record, and their defense is horrible. If this game were played in Indy, I would pick the Colts, but I want to actually see Manning win a playoff game on the road before I pick Indy to win a game in Arrowhead. I'm taking KC.That brings me to NE-Ten, which I think is the most competitive matchup this weekend. NE is on an incredible hot streak, but many of their wins have been quite close (they almost lost to Houston, for crying out loud). Ten has a good running game to complement a very strong passing game, while NE has no running game to speak of. If I were wagering, I would be happy to take Ten and the points in what I would expect to be a close game. If any of the road teams pull the upset, I would expect it to be Ten. Not sure that I would have the stone to pick Ten straight up, but still I see them as having the best shot.
Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
There are actually 4 of us.Really, all the road teams will have an uphill battle. Being that I have a dog in this fight, I will ignore conventional wisdom and cheer on my team as if they have a chance to win this weekend.
H.K.
Footballguy
Good post. I think we'll only see one upset this week, not sure who it will be though. The weather in NE should really help the Pats, so I am not as high on the Titans. I'd say the Pats have a 90% chance of winning.The Eagles are extremely hot right now and the Packers have essentially been playing in "elimination" games for the past month, so I think they are about to hit a wall. I think the Eagles are also about 90% assured of moving on.The Cowboys are not the Rams. The Panthers have a chance, but not a particularly good one, especially if they can't keep it close and control the clock with Davis. I'd say the Rams have about an 85% chance of winning this week.KC is a tough place to play and there is a 30% chance of rain, which would favor the better running team. The Colts are a dome team to boot, so the conditions will be a factor. KC has not been good defensively, so I think the Colts have the best chance, but I still think KC is at 70% or better to advance.
Warehouse Nasty
Footballguy
Jason, In a static world, your argument is very valid. However, the NFL is constantly changing and every year is crazier than the previous in the sense that parity runs wild and it really has become a league in where anybody can beat anybody on any given week. You are seeing more and more things you never thought you'd see in the NFL. It would be foolish to think that just because the bye teams have won in the past they will continue to do so. Just look at this year's matchups vs last years. In last year's matchups there were 4 teams that were clearly better than their opponents; Tampa over SF, Philly over Atlanta, Tenn over Pitt, and Oakland over Jets. Those are games that the winning team would have been favored no matter if the game was played at the opposing team's venue. This year it's a lot more evenly matched:-Car vs STL-Stl does have a big advantage in this game; if the game were played at Car the line would probably be pick em-GB vs Phi-Possibly the most evenly matched game. In GB, the Pack would be 3 or 4 point favorites.-NE vs Tenn-Again, a very evenly matched game. Many people will say that Tenn is the 2nd best team in the NFL right now. Unfortunately, they're playing the best. In Tenn, Tenn would be favored by a FG.-Indy vs KC-Very evenly matched. Whomever is the home team is favored in this one.So there really isn't a noticeably better team in this year's matchups like there was last year. Now, I'm not saying that the non-bye teams will win, but to say that they won't because they haven't in the past is pretty silly considering how much the NFL has been and still is changing.
Workhorse
Footballguy
(1) Tennessee also "barely" beat Houston on the road only less than a month ago...(2) I love how Tennessee has a "good" rushing game while New England has "no rushing game"...They were nearly DEAD EVEN in 2003.Titans averaged 101.4 ypg, 3.3 ypcPatriots averaged 100.4 ypg, 3.4 ypc
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
Warehouse, I'll keep saying it, it wouldn't surprise if ONE of the upsets took a game, and I can't say which one that will be. But you're confusing something. The main advantage for the home teams isn't simply that they're better teams (which would be negated by your contention that these teams are evenly matched), it's that they have two weeks to prepare and rest, a HUGE advantage. That's what doesn't change from year to year and why the winning % of the home teams in divisionals is so impressive in an ever changing league. It's the one true advantage (homefield isn't that big of an advantage) that the top seeds are rewarded, and it's a big one.The bye week, coupled with homefield can negate any kind of momentum the wild card teams have, and we've seen that consistently for 15+ years now.Cheers
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
So you're conceding that there's no particular reason for NE to be a big favorite vs. Ten, since they're so even and all?
...perception is that the Pack has closed the gap talent-wise......????You're kidding me right?
Talentwise Green Bay is better across the board than Philly. Rb QB OLine, WR is a wash, Def is about even without Clemons and Vincent being banged up.
Philly is the #1 seed. but they aren't the better team. They won the games and deserve credit for that, because a W is a W, but the Bears won 13 in 2001. If you compare how they won it's pretty close. Taking advantage of a ton of turnovers, and the ball bouncing the right way.
Edited to say NO I do not think the 2001 Bears and this years Eagles are equal. The Eagles are a MUCH better team. SO don't bust my balls on that.
Wk 10, beat GB; GB 6 fumbles, Favre broken thumb.
Wk 11, beat NYG; Shockey, Hilliard and Tim Carter all hurt.
Wk 12, Beat NO with the help of 3 fumbles that led to 17pts
Wk 13, Beat Car, Kasay missed 3 FG's and an XP
Wk 14, Beat Dallas behind 2 Ints, but otherwise a solid win
Wk 15, Beat Miami behind 2 Ints, but still gave up 27pts.
I'm not saying Green Bay is head and shoulders better than Philly, but they are the better team. Especially with Westbrook and Clemons out, and with Vincent being a little banged up.
Philly has history on their side, no question about it. Not 95% like smelvin said earlier, but they definitely have history, all the #1 seeds do. But to chalk up a loss to Green Bay because of the history stat is ridiculous. I'll take my chances with the better team over history any day, oh and some guy named Brett Favre.
When has McNabb won a big game? He and the rest of the Iggles are the ones under pressure here, Not the Packers. How many times has McNabb and co. wilted under that pressure????
Of course I'm a homer, but stats don't lie, and Green Bay is the better team. Now will they show it on Sunday is another story, I'm betting they do, but they are coming off some incredible mentally and physically draining games, and one would think they's be due for a letdown, but that is and will be no excuse if they lose, because this is the #### playoffs!!!!!
You can have all the histroy you want. The game will be settled on the field. Be confident because you have history. All I am hearing from Philly fans is that you have history on your side, cool you win the history battle, I concede that.......but we have Brett and Ahman.
Green Bay 27
History 24
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
How exactly is Green Bay the better team?Cheers
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I'm not going to get into a p**sing contest of "my team is better than yours." But I will point out that Green Bay's got the better names, but Philly's offense has been humming since McNabb turned his season around. I'll also note that Philly has the better defense statistically, and that was with playing most of the season with 3/4 of the starting secondary injured. I want to be clear, Philly homerism aside, the team I least wanted to face out of the Dal/GB/Car/Sea mix was GB, they're the best, have the most momentum and match up the best against Philly. However, I think at worst the teams are even in terms of total talent, and Philly's got the clear edge in coaching, homefield, and the bye.Cheers
No way does Green Bay beat Philly this weekend. No way does Tennessee beat New England this weekend.No way does Carolina beat St. Louis this weekend. (although ATS is a different story here.)The only team with any kind of hope is the Colts, and even that's a long shot. If you can't bring yourself to lay money on the Chiefs, you just gotta pass on this game.
Gamblor
Footballguy
This is one of the funniest posts I have read in a while. Im not picking who will win or who will lose but you are saying...I can understand your Car STL argument - although I still think STL would be a road favourite...I agree with your Indy KC game being the home team has the advantage...You honestly believe the spread would have a 9 point swing if played in Tenn???You honestly believe the spread would have a 9 point swing if played in GB.That is just ridiculous - I wouldnt be applying to work at any sportsbooks!
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Gamblor
Footballguy
Im a homer for neither team - but just wanted to say Mr. Pack that I think you are looking at this game through cheese coloured glasses. I think the Pac have a good chance at an upset - but it would be an upset. Philly clearly has the advantage in this game.There's no need for a pissing contest about which team is better, we both know which one that isIt's going to be a hell of a game no question about it, and Philly does have the edge of Homefield, and bye week only, coaching is a wash too with no clear advantage.
Gamblor
Footballguy
There is a difference between resting your starters and a bye... resting your starters still means travel for all the broncos as well as the coaching staff still had to game plan for GB... at least they were supposed toSo Shanny resting his starters in Denver is bad, but having a bye is good?Gb and Indy have EXCELLENT chances of winning this week. In my opinion, Philly is grossly overrated.
Philly has no WR's and will be without Westbrook.In my opinion, GB wins this game on the legs of Ahman Green.Indy and KC will be a shootout with probably the last team to score wins the game.Carolina is toast in St Louis.The Titans would have a good chance of winning if McNair and George are healthy. Since they are not, it looks like NE should advance.
I haven't gone back and looked (at past wild card games) but don't discount the traveling on the road back to back weeks. In other words, there was only one road team to win in last weeks wild card games and if my mind doesn't desert me that has not been the trend, (meaning it is usually more). I believe the lines are a little low to take this into consideration because the NFC teams were at home last week (and also the teams don't appear to be that dominating as opposed to years gone by) while IMHO NE is a little bit of an overlay maybe because TN will be playing its second consecutive game on the road (they are 1-2 SU this year in the second game). As far as the Indy game I don't think KC is getting the respect that you would think they should (it is virtually an even game). I disagree with Warehouse Nasty:If Carolina was at home there is no way that line would ever start or get close to even. It would be pounded if it was. IMHO the best you would see that line is St Louis -2.The GB/Philly matchup would be a pick um game, especially since Philly beat them earlier in the year there. I know different circumstnaces but the betting public would pound Philly getting any points based on that specific game. Tenn might be favored by a point at best, it would probably be a pick um game. And the one I agree with you is the Indy line If they were home they would be giving KC 3.
If they were home they would be giving KC 3.
plymkr
Footballguy
What I personally would like to see is Green Bay and Philly both lose. But hey, I'm a Cowboy Fan!I think GreenBay is lucky to be where they are...and will probably get rolled.I think Carolina is going to keep it close. The Rams have alot more talent, but I can never bet on them because their coach is a moron.Bill Belichek with 2 weeks of prep...NewEngland will cover. Chiefs v. Colts...can't wait to watch.
strykerpks
Footballguy
Do PHI, STL, NE and KC have an edge? Hell yes they do! Teams don't try and fight for that bye week and home field advantage for nothing. If this weren't the case then why not just put the top 6 teams in a hat and pick randomly who plays where?Has that been and edge in years past? Hell yes it has! As someone pointed out earlier, 32-8 (or something similar) is one helluva record for home teams coming off a bye in the playoffs. That being said, does that mean that PHI, STL, NE and KC WILL win because of these facts? No. I like the points that have been going back and forth so far in this thread and many of my thoughts have already been brought up (which is why I mainly lurk here in the Shark Pool, you guys are great!). But it remains, that records were made to be broken. 1 time in the past 10 or so years, the #1 and #2 seeds have gone a total of 2-2. I think that will happen again this year. Who knows, it COULD be 1-4 or 0-4. Thats why they play the games (Sorry for the Berman quote there) 
I like STL over CAR. This was probably one of the easiest games to call. No clear advantage here, meaning that if the game is in Charlotte, I think STL still wins. However it will not be a blowout. Carolinas defense is too good to just give up 30+ pts in the playoffs.Car 13STL 20I like Indy over KC. This is going to be an exciting fast paced game. I don't see KC slowing down the Colts and I don't see the Colts slowing down Preist and Co. THis will be a shootout to the end with the Colts on top.IND 33KC 27Tenn & NE. I think this is the toughest to call. I honestly haven't seen either play much this year. However, I think too much has been made of McNair (not a co-MVP but a different discussion) and E George. Tenn will be too beat up and NE will win in a great game.Tenn 21NE 27I really like GB at Philly. Not in a blowout, but in a solid win. I see both defenses as mediocre at best so it will come down to which offense moves the ball more consistently. Obviously theres going to be alot of yards racked up and alot of points scored. GB 33Phi 30Overall, I think the each team matches up well against the other and the Bye week may come into play as some teams will tire out in the 4th when it counts, but it won't be the deciding factor in every game
I like STL over CAR. This was probably one of the easiest games to call. No clear advantage here, meaning that if the game is in Charlotte, I think STL still wins. However it will not be a blowout. Carolinas defense is too good to just give up 30+ pts in the playoffs.Car 13STL 20I like Indy over KC. This is going to be an exciting fast paced game. I don't see KC slowing down the Colts and I don't see the Colts slowing down Preist and Co. THis will be a shootout to the end with the Colts on top.IND 33KC 27Tenn & NE. I think this is the toughest to call. I honestly haven't seen either play much this year. However, I think too much has been made of McNair (not a co-MVP but a different discussion) and E George. Tenn will be too beat up and NE will win in a great game.Tenn 21NE 27I really like GB at Philly. Not in a blowout, but in a solid win. I see both defenses as mediocre at best so it will come down to which offense moves the ball more consistently. Obviously theres going to be alot of yards racked up and alot of points scored. GB 33Phi 30Overall, I think the each team matches up well against the other and the Bye week may come into play as some teams will tire out in the 4th when it counts, but it won't be the deciding factor in every game
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Warehouse Nasty
Footballguy
Jason, I understand what you are saying. My contention is the same. Yes, a week off is an advantage; a significant one at that. But another reason why those teams have won in the past is simply becaust they are the better team. Inferior teams do not win simply because they have had a week off. All I'm contending is that the matchups are more evenly matched this year than in any previous year that I can remember. In this scenario, the bye teams DO have an advantage but that advantage can be overcome more so than in previous years.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Week 10: Ahman Green 29 rushes for 192 yards, 32 receiving yards and 2 TDs
..in Green BayPhiladelphia 17-Green Bay 14
Cheers
:rotflmao: :rotflmao: Now for the rest of the story as Paul Harvey would say, (Something you don't want to acknowledge)Week 10: Ahman Green 29 rushes for 192 yards, 32 receiving yards and 2 TDs
Philadelphia 17-Green Bay 14
Cheers
Brett Favre: 3 Fumbles, 1 lost, 1 Int and playing with a broken thumb.
Green Bay: 6 Fumbles 2 lost
Hmmmmm, and they still only lost on a last minute TD.
I'm pretty sure that JayWoo was saying that if you are counting solely on AGreen's legs, this is what happened when Green went off last time - I wouldn't be laughing about my star back fumbling 6 times to lose the game.I wonder if people realize how GOOD a rushing offense the Eagles have - it is GOOD - as good as almost any team in the league. 2015 yards and 23 TDs - in comparison, the Packers had 2558 and 18 while carrying a running back of AGreen's quality.:rotflmao: :rotflmao: Now for the rest of the story as Paul Harvey would say, (Something you don't want to acknowledge)Week 10: Ahman Green 29 rushes for 192 yards, 32 receiving yards and 2 TDs
Philadelphia 17-Green Bay 14
Cheers
Brett Favre: 3 Fumbles, 1 lost, 1 Int and playing with a broken thumb.
Green Bay: 6 Fumbles 2 lost
Hmmmmm, and they still only lost on a last minute TD.
McNabb can scramble well, and he makes Andy Reid believe that Pinkston and Mitchell are legitimate NFL wideouts.
It is not simply "home field" that makes Philly better in this game - it is their offensive effectiveness, and defensive superiority in pass D. Plus, they won 12 games despite their glaring piss-poor rushing defense. I believe the reason for that is that they give up a ton of yards, especially rush yards, between the 10 yard lines, but they force you to kick field goals. They also cause a lot of turnovers, and cause a lot of sacks. They are as good as Miami or Baltimore in causing TOs and sacks. And their +/- TO ratio (ie - how many turnovers they cause versus how many they give up) is one of the top 2 or 3 in the league.
Now, if TDs come form the run game instead of FGs for the Pack, they will stand an excellent chance of walking away with a victory - but, if you see the Eagles hold the Pack to early FGs instead of 6 points, the game is going the way the Eagles want it to.
Finally, the Green Bay defense - it is not non-existent, but it is middle of the road, and it is not a difficult one to move the ball on - ESPECIALLY through the air where they have given up 3400 yards and 18 TDs in the regular season - in the same category as the Seahawks, Chiefs, Raiders, or Vikings. And I simply do not see them being able to stop McNabb and Co. - or for that matter, Duce/Buck on the ground. The GB defenders won't be able to see the Philly runners before they are 4 yards downfield - that is how MASSIVE McNabb's O-line is.
Anyway, like JayWoo said - the Pack has all the names, but the Eagles have all the numbers to show they are the "more talented" team. They are certainly a more effective and consistent team.
Warehouse Nasty
Footballguy
I'll give you Tenn; I probably overestimated that line.GB would most definitely be 3-point favorites in Lambeau. They were 4-point favorites there earlier in the year when it wasn't as cold and GB was not playing as well (granted, neither was Philly). And, yes, I have worked in sportsbooks
djcolts
Footballguy
Boy, ESPN is going against the 80% trend (these are all straight up picks):6 out of 7 pick Indy4 out of 7 pick Tenn2 out of 7 pick GB3 out of 7 pick CarMeaning 15 out of 28 picks by them pick the underdog. The fact that Merrill Hoge picks the Colts, when he has only picked the Colts to win straight up once in the last 8 weeks, scares the crap out of me. Actually, he picks all the underdogs, so he should call that online betting place and try that 70 to 1 all-underdog parlay - and then check his head for further post-concussion damage. 
The fact that Merrill Hoge picks the Colts, when he has only picked the Colts to win straight up once in the last 8 weeks, scares the crap out of me. Actually, he picks all the underdogs, so he should call that online betting place and try that 70 to 1 all-underdog parlay - and then check his head for further post-concussion damage. That is typical for ESPN (and most major soprts establishments) regarding their "picks" Tere are a variety of reasons why they do that - including promotion of th egame - but, the very fact tat 6 of 7 ESPN guys took Indy leads me to believe KC will win. (not really - just poking fun).
TO CLARIFY:I, of course, was being sarcastic and was using the example that the NFC #1 seed and the AFC #1 seed suffer from similar "knocks" - that they were "lucky" and have good coaches. I believe both those teams deserve where they are and are both super competitive.Portis here may take my response however he wants, but *I* was making a point by being sarcastic.And it would be true of the Patriots too, another not particularly talented team that benefits from coaching and good fortune. Thanks, you made my point for me!
