Why do people fall for the "Wild Card" teams will (1 Viewer)

[Portis 26]

I believe both those teams deserve where they are and are both super competitive.

They are both competitive because of their coaching, of course, which is my point. I recognise both teams are excellently coached. That's not a "knock", is it?Now, if you want to argue that both teams deserve to be where they are on their talent alone I'd love to hear it, because then you'll have to explain why James Thrash and Todd Pinkston are such great WRs, or why Antowain Smith and Mike Cloud and Kevin Faulk are such great RBs. And that should be worth hearing. :rotflmao:

 

[smlevin]

They are both competitive because of their coaching,

Right. The coaches execute the plays.

 

[Portis 26]

Right. The coaches execute the plays.

That is an asinine argument, because you appear to be disregarding entirely the value of coaching. If coaching is worthless, what's the point of having coaches at all?The point of good coaching - and I'm sure I don't need to enlighten you on such an elementary matter - is that it can coax the best out of the available talent. It follows that the best coaching is that which makes the most of average talent which is a PERFECT description of the achievement of the New England and Philadelphia coaching staffs. Unless you want to argue that James Thrash and Todd Pinkston are amazingly talented of course... :rotflmao:

 

[smlevin]

That is an asinine argument,

I know it is isn't it - just as asinine as saying that NE and Philly only won b/c of luck and coaching.Please respond again - the more you respond, the less I need to type to make you look foolish.Open thy mouth and remove all doubt.

 

[Portis 26]

Please respond again - the more you respond, the less I need to type to make you look foolish

You're the one who's arguing coaching doesn't matter, so you're not exactly onto a winner.

 

[smlevin]

You're the one who's arguing coaching doesn't matter, so you're not exactly onto a winner.

I never argued that - you claimed I argued it. Nice try though.All I said is that it takes players to execute good coaching - you are the one denigrating the players.Like I said, open thy mouth, and remove all doubt.

 

[Portis 26]

Like I said, open thy mouth, and remove all doubt.

Rather than attempting to deliver not-very-smart and not-very-funny put-downs like this, why don't you attempt to counter my argument?That is, if you can. Because it's going to be tough to counter my central point, which is that the Patriots and Eagles are not particularly talented as evidenced by their starting WRs and RBs.

 

[smlevin]

Rather than attempting to deliver not-very-smart and not-very-funny put-downs like this, why don't you attempt to counter my argument?That is, if you can. Because it's going to be tough to counter my central point, which is that the Patriots and Eagles are not particularly talented as evidenced by their starting WRs and RBs.

14-2, #1 seed in the AFC12-4, #1 seed in the NFCI don't really need to make any further points than that. If those two teams can do that w/o WR/RB talent in the 1G range, maybe YOU should be the one looking to make intelligent arguments. Look elsewhere for their talent, and you'll find it in abundance.As in - the Eagles have one of the top-3 offensive lines in the league, one of the best secondary units in the league, one of the best defensive lines inthe league, one of the best group of blitzing LBs in the league, and a top QB talent. They also have a couple TEs that make clutch catches while not forgetting their main job is to block. Too many people at those positions for me to tell you their names - but they are all very talented.And, as in - the Patriots have one of the best #1 through #11 units on the defensive side of the ball - man for man. Their 3 down linemen are big and powerful, their LBs are some of the best in the league, able to play either 4-3 or 3-4 with ease, and Ty Law leads a secondary that is extremely talented. Oh yeah, and Tom Brady seems to be able to find anyone as long as they are open - especially in the red zone. They also have a couple TEs that make clutch catches while not forgetting their main job is to block.Football's way more than WRs and RBs. I know it doesn't seem that way when dealing with FF folks, but it is true - and the Pats and Eagles are top to bottom talented on the defensive side of the ball, OL, and QB positions.

 

[Alias]

[soap box]YOU ARE ALL A BUNCH OF IDIOTS - I NEVER SEEN MORE IMMATURE BEHAVIOR IN MY LIFE, GET A LIFE AND LEARN TO GET ALONG![/soap box]

 

[Alias]

oh yeah1. GBP beats PHI SU2. CAR beats STL SU

 

[Portis 26]

Quite right, Alias.

 

[Jason Wood]

Now now boys, play nice...Cheers

 

[beef]

On 4 Downs, both Clayton and Sals liked some road teams. StL seemed to be the only home team they thought would win.

 

[Jason Wood]

On 4 Downs, both Clayton and Sals liked some road teams. StL seemed to be the only home team they thought would win.

Which is at the heart of why I started this thread. I can understand when poor schlameels and homers pick the roadies every year, but it borders no irresponsible when the paid professionals do this. They did this last year too, and that worked out really well.Cheers

 

[Gamblor]

This is one of the funniest posts I have read in a while. Im not picking who will win or who will lose but you are saying...I can understand your Car STL argument - although I still think STL would be a road favourite...I agree with your Indy KC game being the home team has the advantage...You honestly believe the spread would have a 9 point swing if played in Tenn???You honestly believe the spread would have a 9 point swing if played in GB.That is just ridiculous - I wouldnt be applying to work at any sportsbooks!

I'll give you Tenn; I probably overestimated that line.GB would most definitely be 3-point favorites in Lambeau. They were 4-point favorites there earlier in the year when it wasn't as cold and GB was not playing as well (granted, neither was Philly). And, yes, I have worked in sportsbooks

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree... If the venues were switched today though - I would be extremely shocked to see GB favoured by a FG!

 

[KID]

I'll give you Tenn; I probably overestimated that line.

GB would most definitely be 3-point favorites in Lambeau. They were 4-point favorites there earlier in the year when it wasn't as cold and GB was not playing as well (granted, neither was Philly).

And, yes, I have worked in sportsbooks

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree... If the venues were switched today though - I would be extremely shocked to see GB favoured by a FG!

So by your statement, please explain to me why NE is favored over TN by 6. Earlier in the year when they played in NE it was a pick um game. Your logic doesn't hold water. There is no way, I repeat no way GB is favored over Philly if this game were played in GB.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'll give you Tenn; I probably overestimated that line.

GB would most definitely be 3-point favorites in Lambeau. They were 4-point favorites there earlier in the year when it wasn't as cold and GB was not playing as well (granted, neither was Philly).

And, yes, I have worked in sportsbooks

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree... If the venues were switched today though - I would be extremely shocked to see GB favoured by a FG!

So by your statement, please explain to me why NE is favored over TN by 6. Earlier in the year when they played in NE it was a pick um game. Your logic doesn't hold water. There is no way, I repeat no way GB is favored over Philly if this game were played in GB.

Not sure about that (even though I'm a Philly homer). If the venues were reversed the Pack would probably be favored, there's a lot of $$$ that goes into the Pack at home just because of the Lambeau mystique. It wouldn't be a FG though, given Philly's 12-4 record vs. GB's record...but GB would be favored by 1 or 2 points, essentially a pick'em for most bettors.

Cheers

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

So by your statement, please explain to me why NE is favored over TN by 6. Earlier in the year when they played in NE it was a pick um game. Your logic doesn't hold water. There is no way, I repeat no way GB is favored over Philly if this game were played in GB.

Not sure about that (even though I'm a Philly homer). If the venues were reversed the Pack would probably be favored, there's a lot of $$$ that goes into the Pack at home just because of the Lambeau mystique. It wouldn't be a FG though, given Philly's 12-4 record vs. GB's record...but GB would be favored by 1 or 2 points, essentially a pick'em for most bettors.

Cheers

J-Wood hit it on the head about Lambeau. Here's how it works:

-Typically the home team advantage is about 3.20 points, meaning that out of 2 "equal" teams, whomever is the home team will be favored by 3.20

-Assume the game is moved from Philly to GB-that is a switch of 6.40 points, -3.2 for Philly, +3.2 for GB (we'll call it 6.5 to keep it simple)

-The line is currently Philly-5.5, thus the switch would make Green Bay a 1 point favorite

-Some teams will have more than the standard 3.20 advantage; examples of these teams include St. Louis, whom we all know is a much different team at home, New England in the winter, and Green Bay, in January, at Lambeau

You can see how Green Bay would easily be favored; possibly by less than 3 but very close. I'm guessing it would be a game where you could get Philly+3 but you'd have to pay 20% juice.

 

[packersfan]

It cracks me up how many people are predicting two, three or four upsets this weekend in the Divisionals. In the world of sports, there are few things as daunting as winning on the road, against a rested team that has had two weeks to prepare against you.

Happens every year. Last year it was the same thing. The Falcons dismantled Green Bay in Green Bay (first time in history) and everyone was on the Vick bandwagon as they came to Philly. Philly 20-Atlanta 6. And everyone talked about how San Fran had the "mo" after pulling out the improbable win vs. NYG. Tampa Bay 31-San Fran 6). The Jets spanked the Colts 41-0 and they were the vogue pick by the pundits. Raiders 30-Jets 10.

Not only do the home teams win more than 80% of the time, they also cover ATS, which means they're not winning ugly.

But honestly, best of luck to everyone who's calling for a bunch of upsets.

Cheers

It happens every year. People have short memories. I am backing 2 wild card teams this round though. I like the Colts and Packers.

The Packers aren't a wild card team. They won the NFC North.That said, I agree the Packers are the trendy choice to spring an upset this week and even though I can see a healthy list of reasons why they could, I still see Philly getting the win. I think it's going to be very close, but I think the Eagles are going to prevail.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Rather than attempting to deliver not-very-smart and not-very-funny put-downs like this, why don't you attempt to counter my argument?That is, if you can. Because it's going to be tough to counter my central point, which is that the Patriots and Eagles are not particularly talented as evidenced by their starting WRs and RBs.

Not that he needs its, I'd have to take Smlevin's side on this.How could you say they aren't as talented? They're the best 2 teams in their conferences proven by playing all year.Maybe we all put to much into some of the big names we "Think" are so good.Maybe New England and Philly don't get the publicity some of the other teams get as far as media attention. But one thing is for sure, those teams are talented big time. Portis, if you mentioned this argument to some of the players on Tennesse, New England or Green Bay, they'd either laugh hysterically or just roll their eyes.

 

[Jason Wood]

It cracks me up  how many people are predicting two, three or four upsets this weekend in the Divisionals. In the world of sports, there are few things as daunting as winning on the road, against a rested team that has had two weeks to prepare against you.

Happens every year. Last year it was the same thing. The Falcons dismantled Green Bay in Green Bay (first time in history) and everyone was on the Vick bandwagon as they came to Philly. Philly 20-Atlanta 6. And everyone talked about how San Fran had the "mo" after pulling out the improbable win vs. NYG. Tampa Bay 31-San Fran 6). The Jets spanked the Colts 41-0 and they were the vogue pick by the pundits. Raiders 30-Jets 10.

Not only do the home teams win more than 80% of the time, they also cover ATS, which means they're not winning ugly.

But honestly, best of luck to everyone who's calling for a bunch of upsets.

Cheers

It happens every year. People have short memories. I am backing 2 wild card teams this round though. I like the Colts and Packers.

The Packers aren't a wild card team. They won the NFC North.That said, I agree the Packers are the trendy choice to spring an upset this week and even though I can see a healthy list of reasons why they could, I still see Philly getting the win. I think it's going to be very close, but I think the Eagles are going to prevail.

Sorry about that, when I said wild card, I meant (and should have said) the winners of the wild card round.Cheers

 

[MrPack]

I'll give you Tenn; I probably overestimated that line.

GB would most definitely be 3-point favorites in Lambeau. They were 4-point favorites there earlier in the year when it wasn't as cold and GB was not playing as well (granted, neither was Philly).

And, yes, I have worked in sportsbooks

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree... If the venues were switched today though - I would be extremely shocked to see GB favoured by a FG!

So by your statement, please explain to me why NE is favored over TN by 6. Earlier in the year when they played in NE it was a pick um game. Your logic doesn't hold water. There is no way, I repeat no way GB is favored over Philly if this game were played in GB.

KID, you're wrong.

If this game were played in Green Bay and the scenarios switched. Green Bay is an easy 3pt fav, hell in week 10 they were favored by 4.5-5 and that was with Favre playing with a broken thumb.

How in the world do you see Philly coming into Lambeau, in the Div. playoffs and being favored???????????? Especially with all this history eveyrone is putting their money on.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

I'll give you Tenn; I probably overestimated that line.

GB would most definitely be 3-point favorites in Lambeau. They were 4-point favorites there earlier in the year when it wasn't as cold and GB was not playing as well (granted, neither was Philly).

And, yes, I have worked in sportsbooks

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree... If the venues were switched today though - I would be extremely shocked to see GB favoured by a FG!

So by your statement, please explain to me why NE is favored over TN by 6. Earlier in the year when they played in NE it was a pick um game. Your logic doesn't hold water.

I just noticed your question about NE...what are you talking about? I have no idea...

 

[smlevin]

Rather than attempting to deliver not-very-smart and not-very-funny put-downs like this, why don't you attempt to counter my argument?That is, if you can. Because it's going to be tough to counter my central point, which is that the Patriots and Eagles are not particularly talented as evidenced by their starting WRs and RBs.

Not that he needs its, I'd have to take Smlevin's side on this.

Thanks, cowboy - and you are right, I did not need it. My post in response to Portis' comments was posted earlier, and is reprinted below. It seems my counter argument (an actual ARGUMENT rather than blank assertions) was not worthy of a response:

14-2, #1 seed in the AFC12-4, #1 seed in the NFCI don't really need to make any further points than that. If those two teams can do that w/o WR/RB talent in the 1G range, maybe YOU should be the one looking to make intelligent arguments. Look elsewhere for their talent, and you'll find it in abundance.As in - the Eagles have one of the top-3 offensive lines in the league, one of the best secondary units in the league, one of the best defensive lines inthe league, one of the best group of blitzing LBs in the league, and a top QB talent. They also have a couple TEs that make clutch catches while not forgetting their main job is to block. Too many people at those positions for me to tell you their names - but they are all very talented.And, as in - the Patriots have one of the best #1 through #11 units on the defensive side of the ball - man for man. Their 3 down linemen are big and powerful, their LBs are some of the best in the league, able to play either 4-3 or 3-4 with ease, and Ty Law leads a secondary that is extremely talented. Oh yeah, and Tom Brady seems to be able to find anyone as long as they are open - especially in the red zone. They also have a couple TEs that make clutch catches while not forgetting their main job is to block.Football's way more than WRs and RBs. I know it doesn't seem that way when dealing with FF folks, but it is true - and the Pats and Eagles are top to bottom talented on the defensive side of the ball, OL, and QB positions.

 

[Saint]

I feel the need to quote a Budweiser commericial...Reporter: "There's no 'I' in team..."Leon: "There's no 'we' either..."As I recall Leon was being interviewed after losing the game.. Apparently the 'I's aren't winning in football, it's the team that plays well together, hence the Eagles and Pats being division winners and 1st round byes....

 

[Gamblor]

I'll give you Tenn; I probably overestimated that line.

GB would most definitely be 3-point favorites in Lambeau. They were 4-point favorites there earlier in the year when it wasn't as cold and GB was not playing as well (granted, neither was Philly).

And, yes, I have worked in sportsbooks

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree... If the venues were switched today though - I would be extremely shocked to see GB favoured by a FG!

So by your statement, please explain to me why NE is favored over TN by 6. Earlier in the year when they played in NE it was a pick um game. Your logic doesn't hold water. There is no way, I repeat no way GB is favored over Philly if this game were played in GB.

KID, you're wrong.

If this game were played in Green Bay and the scenarios switched. Green Bay is an easy 3pt fav, hell in week 10 they were favored by 4.5-5 and that was with Favre playing with a broken thumb.

How in the world do you see Philly coming into Lambeau, in the Div. playoffs and being favored???????????? Especially with all this history eveyrone is putting their money on.



PACK - I think you are misunderstanding the point under discussion... If GB had homefield adv. then they would have the better record and of course would be favoured... However assume Phillys stadium has a rat infestation tomorrow and both teams have to fly to GB just before gametime. Philly still has the extra week to prepare. Would you still say GB is an easy 3 point favourite? Do you really think Vegas would move their line 9 or more points because they changed venues??? Maybe they would due to the lambeau mystique - but Im not convinced...

 

[Gamblor]

I'll give you Tenn; I probably overestimated that line.

GB would most definitely be 3-point favorites in Lambeau. They were 4-point favorites there earlier in the year when it wasn't as cold and GB was not playing as well (granted, neither was Philly).

And, yes, I have worked in sportsbooks

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree... If the venues were switched today though - I would be extremely shocked to see GB favoured by a FG!

So by your statement, please explain to me why NE is favored over TN by 6. Earlier in the year when they played in NE it was a pick um game. Your logic doesn't hold water.

I just noticed your question about NE...what are you talking about? I have no idea...

Warehouse - I think KID was referring to the fact that you suggest that GB would be favoured at home since they were favoured earlier in the year as well... I think He is suggesting if you support that arguement then how can you explain why that spread is so different in the Tenn/NE game from their last game in NE.

At least that is what I think he is saying, although it doesnt really make much sense so I may be misinterpreting his question.

And I think you have convinced me that GB would become a fav at home, given the lambeau mystique, but I would still argue that it wouldnt be by a FG

That being said I just picked all favs vs the spread in my pool. The same pool I won during the regular season.

After reading this thread Jason makes a strong case for home teams. My initial instinct was to pick all dogs (except for STL), but you cant argue with history... I might be cursing come Sunday night though.

 

[KID]

Warehouse - I think KID was referring to the fact that you suggest that GB would be favoured at home since they were favoured earlier in the year as well... I think He is suggesting if you support that arguement then how can you explain why that spread is so different in the Tenn/NE game from their last game in NE. At least that is what I think he is saying, although it doesnt really make much sense so I may be misinterpreting his question.

If you support the argument that the last time Philly played GB, GB was favored by 4 that therefore they would still be favored (meaning the line would only move a point or two). How can you explain why NE is favored by 6 when they played earlier and it was a pick um game. In other words this line moved 6 points from there earlier meeting. This logic by itself doesn't hold any water. In other words, if the line has moved 6 points on an earlier matchup it can easily move 4 on the proposed Philly/GB match up. GB people will bet on GB at home almost no matter what the line is. Vegas doesn't set a line based on what the people will do that particularly follow these teams. They will set a line based on how they can make some money. That is why the wiseguys look for overlays and underlays. Sheesh, I can tell there aren't any wiseguys in here. So in retrospect if the line came out with Philly as a dog it would get pounded by the wiseguys because they understand the the GB Mystique is no longer and the Mystique didn't do them any good the last time they played. Heck, even the betting public will see this. This is why Vegas will show Philly some respect and make it a pick um game. Heck GB is 6-3 at home this year. It is like the Boston Celtics Mystique. The Mystique logic by itself doesn't hold water guys. Come on guys get with the program.

 

[KID]

Philly has won 10 of their last 11 games, can you honestly tell me that you think Vegas would put out a line with Philly getting points against GB in GB is beyond me. The bye week which has been mentioned is huge, the Philly has been there before is huge and the history with the #1 and #2 seeds during this round at home is huge. It isn't worth looking any deeper, luckily this is a moot point so we will never truly know. IMHO Vegas is playing on the passing of Favre's father and that most people want to see GB win (me included) and that is why the line is an underlay. The smart bet is Philly.

 

[KID]

I'll give you Tenn; I probably overestimated that line.

GB would most definitely be 3-point favorites in Lambeau. They were 4-point favorites there earlier in the year when it wasn't as cold and GB was not playing as well (granted, neither was Philly).

And, yes, I have worked in sportsbooks

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree... If the venues were switched today though - I would be extremely shocked to see GB favoured by a FG!

So by your statement, please explain to me why NE is favored over TN by 6. Earlier in the year when they played in NE it was a pick um game. Your logic doesn't hold water. There is no way, I repeat no way GB is favored over Philly if this game were played in GB.

KID, you're wrong.

If this game were played in Green Bay and the scenarios switched. Green Bay is an easy 3pt fav, hell in week 10 they were favored by 4.5-5 and that was with Favre playing with a broken thumb.

How in the world do you see Philly coming into Lambeau, in the Div. playoffs and being favored???????????? Especially with all this history eveyrone is putting their money on.



It wouldn't be the first time I was wrong, but not here. Never said favored MrPack, said pick um game.

History, let's see who beat GB in GB last year a scrambling QB by the name of Vick. The mystique has worn off although it appears it is tough to let it go!

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

KID-I'm not saying that GB would be favored only because they were earlier in the year; I'm simply pointing that fact out. We've strayed from my original point-the fact that these teams are very equal and so the argument that the bye team has always won in the past doesn't necessarily mean that they will win this year as well. There are other factors to consider, as I stated above.

 

[KID]

KID-I'm not saying that GB would be favored only because they were earlier in the year; I'm simply pointing that fact out. We've strayed from my original point-the fact that these teams are very equal and so the argument that the bye team has always won in the past doesn't necessarily mean that they will win this year as well. There are other factors to consider, as I stated above.

And the fact that I am pointing out is that the NE line moved form 6 points of where it was the first time NE/TN met. So I have proved by showing you that indeed a line can move this many points. It makes your "fact" irrelevant in support of what the line would be. I totally agree with you that this fact alone has no merit. I am not going to look back on this post I know I have posted it somewhere on this board:The positives to me provide more reasons why Philly will win this game by 10 or more. Some of course were mentioned right above, here are some others:Reid has been imaginative in opening up the offense. When Philly played Miami on Monday night this year, I thought Reid got fired and they hired some new coach before the game. Although Philly still threw the screens and dump offs. The first play of the game McNabb throws a bomb. I thought I was dreaming! Another time Mitchell throws a TD. Man this isn't the Philly I know and hate. This shows me that Reid learned something very important in the game agsinst TB last year. You have to get TDS early and don't go into a conservative game plan. In other words you need to open it up. I am not going to break down the whole game but IMHO GB will be settling for FGs because Vincent and Taylor will be shutting down Walker and Driver. Don't get me wrong A Green will get his yards but the Philly bend but don't break defense will keep GB out of the red zone. This will put a little pressure on Mr Favre and he will throw two ints in the game. I don't see the Westbrook injury effecting Philly's short passing game or run offense the least bit. I see them scoring ( not at will mind you) because of the x-factor McNabb and the willingness of Reid to open up the offense and put points on the board. There is nothing better I would like to see than GB win this game, but only until I place my small change tomorrow on Philly.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

KID-I'm not saying that GB would be favored only because they were earlier in the year; I'm simply pointing that fact out.  We've strayed from my original point-the fact that these teams are very equal and so the argument that the bye team has always won in the past doesn't necessarily mean that they will win this year as well.  There are other factors to consider, as I stated above.

And the fact that I am pointing out is that the NE line moved form 6 points of where it was the first time NE/TN met. So I have proved by showing you that indeed a line can move this many points. It makes your "fact" irrelevant in support of what the line would be. I totally agree with you that this fact alone has no merit. I am not going to look back on this post I know I have posted it somewhere on this board:

What are you talking about? First you say no way the GB line would move that many points and you justify it by showing how the NE line DID move that many points??? Are you arguing with me or yourself?

 

[KID]

KID-I'm not saying that GB would be favored only because they were earlier in the year; I'm simply pointing that fact out.  We've strayed from my original point-the fact that these teams are very equal and so the argument that the bye team has always won in the past doesn't necessarily mean that they will win this year as well.  There are other factors to consider, as I stated above.

And the fact that I am pointing out is that the NE line moved form 6 points of where it was the first time NE/TN met. So I have proved by showing you that indeed a line can move this many points. It makes your "fact" irrelevant in support of what the line would be. I totally agree with you that this fact alone has no merit. I am not going to look back on this post I know I have posted it somewhere on this board:

What are you talking about? First you say no way the GB line would move that many points and you justify it by showing how the NE line DID move that many points??? Are you arguing with me or yourself?

Too many people putting way too many words in my mouth. Come on guys there are enough words in there, unfortunately I don't require any assistance. I don't recall ever saying the GB line couldn't move that much, in fact I am saying (which refutes to what you said) that just because GB was favored by 4 earlier on the same field that the line would only move one point. I think it would move 4 down to a pick um game. To refute you I have shown you a game (TN/NE) where the line earlier was pich um and now at the same venue (NE) it has moved 6 points. So lines during the same season can indeed move 6 points that is irrefutable because I just showed you one did. So your argument that beacuse they palyed earlier the line would move only one point doesn't hold water. I further went on to show you why I believe the line would move 4 points. Hope this helps you to understand my points.

 

[MrPack]

Warehouse - I think KID was referring to the fact that you suggest that GB would be favoured at home since they were favoured earlier in the year as well... I think He is suggesting if you support that arguement then how can you explain why that spread is so different in the Tenn/NE game from their last game in NE. At least that is what I think he is saying, although it doesnt really make much sense so I may be misinterpreting his question.

If you support the argument that the last time Philly played GB, GB was favored by 4 that therefore they would still be favored (meaning the line would only move a point or two). How can you explain why NE is favored by 6 when they played earlier and it was a pick um game. In other words this line moved 6 points from there earlier meeting. This logic by itself doesn't hold any water. In other words, if the line has moved 6 points on an earlier matchup it can easily move 4 on the proposed Philly/GB match up. GB people will bet on GB at home almost no matter what the line is. Vegas doesn't set a line based on what the people will do that particularly follow these teams. They will set a line based on how they can make some money. That is why the wiseguys look for overlays and underlays. Sheesh, I can tell there aren't any wiseguys in here. So in retrospect if the line came out with Philly as a dog it would get pounded by the wiseguys because they understand the the GB Mystique is no longer and the Mystique didn't do them any good the last time they played. Heck, even the betting public will see this. This is why Vegas will show Philly some respect and make it a pick um game. Heck GB is 6-3 at home this year. It is like the Boston Celtics Mystique. The Mystique logic by itself doesn't hold water guys. Come on guys get with the program.

NE being favored by 6 this time is easy.- They're at home after a bye week.- They have NO ONE on the injured list- Weather, it'll be cold- McNair has a broken ankle- Eddie George has a separated shoulder- It's the playoffsNothing else needs to be said.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

I see why we're confused-I never said that the line would only move one point because they played earlier. I simply pointed out the fact that GB was favored when they played earlier in the year to people who were so shocked to think GB could be favored over Philly. If you re-read the post you'll see that was never the basis of my argument.

 

[KID]

I see why we're confused-I never said that the line would only move one point because they played earlier. I simply pointed out the fact that GB was favored when they played earlier in the year to people who were so shocked to think GB could be favored over Philly. If you re-read the post you'll see that was never the basis of my argument.

My bad, I guess I inferred what you didn't imply. Thanks for pointing this out.

 

[KID]

Warehouse - I think KID was referring to the fact that you suggest that GB would be favoured at home since they were favoured earlier in the year as well...  I think He is suggesting if you support that arguement then how can you explain why that spread is so different in the Tenn/NE game from their last game in NE. At least that is what I think he is saying, although it doesnt really make much sense so I may be misinterpreting his question.

If you support the argument that the last time Philly played GB, GB was favored by 4 that therefore they would still be favored (meaning the line would only move a point or two). How can you explain why NE is favored by 6 when they played earlier and it was a pick um game. In other words this line moved 6 points from there earlier meeting. This logic by itself doesn't hold any water. In other words, if the line has moved 6 points on an earlier matchup it can easily move 4 on the proposed Philly/GB match up. GB people will bet on GB at home almost no matter what the line is. Vegas doesn't set a line based on what the people will do that particularly follow these teams. They will set a line based on how they can make some money. That is why the wiseguys look for overlays and underlays. Sheesh, I can tell there aren't any wiseguys in here. So in retrospect if the line came out with Philly as a dog it would get pounded by the wiseguys because they understand the the GB Mystique is no longer and the Mystique didn't do them any good the last time they played. Heck, even the betting public will see this. This is why Vegas will show Philly some respect and make it a pick um game. Heck GB is 6-3 at home this year. It is like the Boston Celtics Mystique. The Mystique logic by itself doesn't hold water guys. Come on guys get with the program.

NE being favored by 6 this time is easy.- They're at home after a bye week.- They have NO ONE on the injured list- Weather, it'll be cold- McNair has a broken ankle- Eddie George has a separated shoulder- It's the playoffsNothing else needs to be said.

Like I said either here or in another thread. IMHO this is an overlay. I handicapped the game at 4 to 4 and a half. I agree with your first three points and disagree with your last three points. It doesn't really matter why and I have a lot of other reasons on both sides of the coin. Still believe this game will be a NE 3 or 4 point win. One of the big factors IMHO is that McNair will have a much better game than he did last week in Baltimore.

 

[smlevin]

Like I said either here or in another thread. IMHO this is an overlay. I handicapped the game at 4 to 4 and a half. I agree with your first three points and disagree with your last three points. It doesn't really matter why and I have a lot of other reasons on both sides of the coin. Still believe this game will be a NE 3 or 4 point win. One of the big factors IMHO is that McNair will have a much better game than he did last week in Baltimore.

That, plus I don't see any team in the league - including the vaunted Pats' D - keeping the Titan's offense down.If the Titans offense is revved up it *should* be a relatively close game. My initial prediction when the playoffs were first set (yes, before the Titans had upset the Ravens) was that the Pats woud have their heart's broken by McNair in the two minute drill. I now go the other way - that the Titans will be heartbroken by a Tom Brady late drive (not necessarily two-minute drill) that will culminate in the Pats taking the lead late in the game, and the Titans will be unable to come back at the end of the game to win it after losing the lead late. But, I still see the Titans and the points being the better bet than the Pats covering 6.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

The more I read everyone's opinions the more I think that this Tenn-NE matchup has all the makings to be a classic. I agree with smlevin and KID in the fact that I don't think McNair will have 2 bad games in a row. Will it be enough though?

 

[KID]

WN and Smelvin we have common ground! The NE/TN game IMHO will be a hard fought game and I have handicapped it going over.

 

[smlevin]

WN and Smelvin we have common ground! The NE/TN game IMHO will be a hard fought game and I have handicapped it going over.

Well, I've been fairly neutral in regards to this game (not neutral as in don't care, but neutral as in objective). I have the O/U in one teaser for the over, bringing it to 29 (!!!) for the over. I can say one thing for sure- if I lose that portion of the teaser, the Titans will not win the game, and they will definitely cover the points.

 

[Portis 26]

Smlevin, thanks for stopping the prissy putdowns and at last making a serious argument, which I will now deal with.

As in - the Eagles have one of the top-3 offensive lines in the league, one of the best secondary units in the league, one of the best defensive lines inthe league, one of the best group of blitzing LBs in the league, and a top QB talent. They also have a couple TEs that make clutch catches while not forgetting their main job is to block. Too many people at those positions for me to tell you their names - but they are all very talented.

I'll grant you that the Eagles have an above average line, but top 3 is seriously overstating it. It's basically Jon Runyan + plus a supporting cast. Off the top of my head I'd say Kansas City, Baltimore and St Louis are all clearly superior OLs, so I don't see how they can be top 3.

I'll also grant you that the Eagles have a great secondary -- when it's healthy. Which it hasn't been all season.

I won't grant you that the Eagles have one of the best defensive lines in the league.

They didn't replace Hugh Douglas. They are seriously undersized and can easily be run on.

Their LBs are not only NOT one of the "best group of blitzing LBs" in the league, they are one of the WEAKEST starting units in the league. Mark Simoneau is seriously undersized in the middle, Nate Wayne was washed up in Green Bay and Carlos Emmons is now hurt.

I see you don't mention Philly's dreadful WR corps, or its very average RBs.

In conclusion, you overstate the case. I agree that Philly's secondary and QB are top-notch. The rest of their talent is average at best. They compensate for average talent (having an extremely undersized D, for example, which easily gets run on, or very poor WRs, or an average stable of backs) with EXCELLENT COACHING, which was my point in the first place.

And, as in - the Patriots have one of the best #1 through #11 units on the defensive side of the ball - man for man. Their 3 down linemen are big and powerful, their LBs are some of the best in the league, able to play either 4-3 or 3-4 with ease, and Ty Law leads a secondary that is extremely talented. Oh yeah, and Tom Brady seems to be able to find anyone as long as they are open - especially in the red zone. They also have a couple TEs that make clutch catches while not forgetting their main job is to block.

Nearly all NFL d-linemen are "big and powerful" so that's not much of an argument. In fact they have only one particularly good DL and that's Richard Seymour. Which LBs in particular are the "best in the league"? Roman Phifer? Ted Johnson? Average at best. Bruschi's not bad but certainly not one of the best in the league. I give you Tom Brady's an excellent talent, as is Ty Law.

I see you don't mention New England's WRs or RBs, which are extremely average, or its O-line which is also extremely average. Your omissions are highly telling, as is the fact that you have to fall back on New England's TEs, which aren't bad, but certainly nothing special. You make my point for me once more.

CONCLUSION: I am not saying either Philly or the Pats are not great TEAMS. They are. But their excellent records are principally the result of the superb coaching they receive. Their talent is pretty good - but not really great. Both teams DO have several superstars but then we should remember that nearly every NFL team has several great players.

Anyway, I hope that Smlevin has the grace to continue this discussion amicably and without rancour.

 

[smlevin]

Nope I can't.We are significantly divergent on each team's talent level on the defensive side of the ball, and I won't try to convince you.And OF COURSE I neglected mentioning the WRs and RBs - that was the point of my post - to show you that there are basis of talent far beyond having a G performer at WR/RB. I'm sorry you don't see the quality of the Eagles OL and defensive players, or the Pats' OL, LB, and DL players the same as I do - there's nothing left to discuss if you don't see those units as talented.

 

[beef]

There's 1 upset

 

[BassNBrew]

Well Jason, the road teams are 2-0 v. the spread. Your wisdom has lighten my wallet by $40.

 

[Alias]

Well Jason, the road teams are 2-0 v. the spread. Your wisdom has lighten my wallet by $40.

:rotflmao: He might as well said every favorite was A LOCK to cover this weekend.

:rotflmao:

 

[BassNBrew]

:rotflmao:

He might as well said every favorite was A LOCK to cover this weekend.

:rotflmao:

You mean A Stone Cold Lock of the Week

 

[Jason Wood]

Well Jason, the road teams are 2-0 v. the spread. Your wisdom has lighten my wallet by $40.

:( well if it's any consolation my pocket is A LOT lighter than $40. Leave it to THIS year for the trend to break down. Cheers

 

[Hammered Finz]

:( well if it's any consolation my pocket is A LOT lighter than $40. Leave it to THIS year for the trend to break down. Cheers

double down on the homers today and make it back..