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Why is Chris Johnson the consensus #1? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter sgtrobo
- Start date
Mr.Underhill
Footballguy
When your sample size is 5, it's not a statistic, it's a superstition.
this is not happening. if anything, i am seeing guys LOVING the 4 slot. i have literally not seen a single person interested in trading up from 4, 3, or 2 to get johnson.nonono. I think people are getting too wrapped up in the whole "RB1" vs. "RB4" thing
Yes, I have more faith in AP, MJD and Michael Turner finishing higher. I do hear you regarding the whole crapshoot, but I think that it's safe to call MJD, Turner and AD stud TD guys. They're all great goal line backs. Now, Flash, for his size, is DAMN GOOD between the tackles (especially for how good Tenn's IOL is), but I definitely think 16 TDs by CJ won't be repeated.
I guess my issue is that, when it comes time to draft that 1.01, so many people are tripping over themselves to trade up to 1.01, even out of the 1.02/03/04 spots to grab Johnson because they're convinced that he will be the highest scoring RB in the NFL
Shark move #1 - make the trade, and take them for a ride
Shark move #2 - draft Johnson, and then trade him right before the start of the season and win BIG
I did #2 in 2008 in several leagues, using Brady as bait. I don't know how many poor slobs gave up Drew Brees + to grab Brady (Brees was my primary target in 2008, FWIW)
anyway, just bored at school today so I figured I'd throw this out there. These Legal classes I'm taking are PAINFULLY boring.
gigantor
Footballguy
I am with you 100%. Never draft a guy high after he has a monster career year and expect similar results. I've stuck to that and it's worked for me.
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PahtyTom
Footballguy
I dunno if there is or isn't but I know why no one is talking about "THE CURSE OF 370". Because he didn't have 370 carries so it doesn't apply.
Mr.Underhill
Footballguy
Wow. A follow-up number 8 finish is something none of the previous 2000 yard rushers was able to accomplish. In fact, it's occured just as many times as has a follow-up finish at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13, 14... How can you ignore the evidence that so clearly shows that Johnson not only cannot finish at 8 but also cannot finish at any other spot other than 10, 11, 25 or 77?It's never been done before, therefore it can't be done.I love drafting "the field" from the 1 spot.
Mr.Underhill
Footballguy
Ah. Nice. I glossed over it as a mispell first time!
So you believe in a causal connection between Brady having a career year in 2007 and a defender crumbling his knee in 2008?nonono. I think people are getting too wrapped up in the whole "RB1" vs. "RB4" thingYes, I have more faith in AP, MJD and Michael Turner finishing higher. I do hear you regarding the whole crapshoot, but I think that it's safe to call MJD, Turner and AD stud TD guys. They're all great goal line backs. Now, Flash, for his size, is DAMN GOOD between the tackles (especially for how good Tenn's IOL is), but I definitely think 16 TDs by CJ won't be repeated.I guess my issue is that, when it comes time to draft that 1.01, so many people are tripping over themselves to trade up to 1.01, even out of the 1.02/03/04 spots to grab Johnson because they're convinced that he will be the highest scoring RB in the NFLShark move #1 - make the trade, and take them for a rideShark move #2 - draft Johnson, and then trade him right before the start of the season and win BIGI did #2 in 2008 in several leagues, using Brady as bait. I don't know how many poor slobs gave up Drew Brees + to grab Brady (Brees was my primary target in 2008, FWIW)anyway, just bored at school today so I figured I'd throw this out there. These Legal classes I'm taking are PAINFULLY boring.
no.I believe in regression to the mean.
if a coin lands heads 5 times in a row, what are the odds it is tails the next time?
if an nfl team is 17-0, what are odds it wins the next game? an nba team on a 33 game win streak? a baseball team on a 26 game streak?
chances ray allen makes his next shot after making 8 in a row?
etc.
if an nfl team is 17-0, what are odds it wins the next game? an nba team on a 33 game win streak? a baseball team on a 26 game streak?
chances ray allen makes his next shot after making 8 in a row?
etc.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
Money on the table. $500. Pick one RB that will finish ahead of johnson on standard FBG scoring. You in or are you out?so I post predictions and then I post things like "the primary determining factor will be the health of his offensive line"
and I follow it up with a player-by-player analysis of his OL, including injuries and player movements
then I mention his size and the workload that he took last season, then I mention basic history, and then, the LAST thing I mention is that teams will gameplan for him more
and you automatically skip to the "gameplan" part and ignore the rest
You say he's not RB1. That's easy. Who IS more likely to be RB1 than him?
DISCLAIMER: Forgive me if I require a cashiers check or money order in the hands of an FFA mod prior to week 2. Mine will be there if you're in.
I'll give you the OPTION of an "injury-out" clause where if either player finishes with less than 150 carries then the bet is void. Please clarify if you'd like this set to active or inactive prior to sending out your check.
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Donsmith753
Footballguy
Money on the table. $500. Pick one RB that will finish ahead of johnson on standard FBG scoring. You in or are you out?so I post predictions and then I post things like "the primary determining factor will be the health of his offensive line"
and I follow it up with a player-by-player analysis of his OL, including injuries and player movements
then I mention his size and the workload that he took last season, then I mention basic history, and then, the LAST thing I mention is that teams will gameplan for him more
and you automatically skip to the "gameplan" part and ignore the rest
You say he's not RB1. That's easy. Who IS more likely to be RB1 than him?
DISCLAIMER: Forgive me if I require a cashiers check or money order in the hands of an FFA mod prior to week 2. Mine will be there if you're in.
I'll give you the OPTION of an "injury-out" clause where if either player finishes with less than 150 carries then the bet is void. Please clarify if you'd like this set to active or inactive prior to sending out your check.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'm guessing you realize these aren't the same. As for the question posed, it's already answered but it's simply that CJ's upside is higher than anyone else's and he's more likely to be top 10 than anyone else (perhaps equally with MJD and AD).
Tanner9919
Footballguy
ok I will give it a shot.Michael TurnerRay RiceADPand I will roll the dice by adding Ryan Mathews ( given what NOrv Turner's track record with RB's is, Mathews has a great shot to finish at 1400+, 17 TD, probably 30-35 recs...These Rb's all finish with more fantasy pts, which means more rush yards and recs, than C. Johnson.here's why:Vince Young..IMO, he's going to regress this season.I just don't see him as a 'good' or even decent starting QB..I think he throws more ints, thus leading to less time of possession for the Titans. I think opposing DC's will have found ways to stifle VY and force him to win games with his arm...the Titans schedule in 2010 , at least on paper, seems a lot tougher than last years cakewalk schedule.just look at who the Titans played in 2009 - TB, seattle, rams, etc..this year things get tougher...history also says a 2k back is hard pressed to come close to 2k in the year N+1...some great RBs have achieved a 2k season,but have failed to repeat or come close to those numbers in the following season. That is a trend that is applicable here.MT is set to rip off a 350 carry season.Mathews is likely to be the rookie of the year.Ray Rice is just ascending to the top.ADP is going to 'get his'...I'm not convinced CJ is going to fall out of the top 5 RB's, but I don't think he finishes as the overall #1 guy...
none of these have any bearing or relevance to regression to the mean
asked and answered
[icon]
Insoxicated
So under FBG scoring which is your guy? Which mod are you sending the money order do? I'd suggest Clayton, Rude, or COlin as i've had dealings with them before and they're great guys. Let me know when it's sent and I'll confirm it and get mine in their hands promptly.
Shutout
Footballguy
Maybe the OP is trying to point out something, such as, the FACT that it has only happened 5 times before (that suggests that level of production is almost unique) and the FACT that when it has happened, 100% of the following years have resulted in at least a 10 spot ranking drop. I think he has apoint. Analyze how you want, cite intangibles such as the physical workload in one year contributes to the regression in the following year or an offseason of defense planning is available...whatever. But it IS recorded that there is a significant overall drop.With that being said, I would probably take him #1 if I had the pick just because his perceived value gives me more trade value than taking another guy and (more importantly), in leagues I play in the scoring system is good enough to where he can regress quite a bit and still be worth the pick. I don't buy the argument of take him because he was 100 points more than the #2 (in 2004, Culpepper dwarfed Manning and you could make the same regression argument but we all know these things aren't that easy). But I do KNOW that he could run for 1500 yards and a reasonable amount of TDs and still be worth the pick.As far as taking another guy that may actually end #1. I have a feeling this is 1998 all over again. CJ will be like Barry Sanders...the consensus #1 by a mile, and a guy like ADP will be the #2 that just has a magical Terrell Davis type year and wins people championships. I think Peterson, Rice, or..going out on a stretch..Shonn Greene could be one of those guys that just scores so much and has so many yards that they could put up big points each and every week this year and win leagues for their owners.
Macdaddy_2004
Footballguy
I think at the #1 you can't go wrong with CJ or ADP.
CJ has the most upside - the best case scenario is he did exactly what he did last year. Assuming he plays a full 16 game schedule he is on a team where
1. He will be in on all 3 downs
2. The blueprint is to run the ball
3. The OL is very very good
Add in the fact that CJ is extremely talented and is lightning quick and you have thre recipe for a the #1RB in FF.
Its all about limiting risk and just as you can say you can see CJ regressing, the same can be said about any of the top 5RB's.
CJ has the most upside - the best case scenario is he did exactly what he did last year. Assuming he plays a full 16 game schedule he is on a team where
1. He will be in on all 3 downs
2. The blueprint is to run the ball
3. The OL is very very good
Add in the fact that CJ is extremely talented and is lightning quick and you have thre recipe for a the #1RB in FF.
Its all about limiting risk and just as you can say you can see CJ regressing, the same can be said about any of the top 5RB's.
Rick James
Footballguy
Remember, this is a thread about CJ24 being the #1 pick. Even if you knew with 100% certainty that Ryan Mathews would finish as RB1 you'd be a fool to pick him #1 overall, because from what I've seen there's a 50% chance you could get him with your 2nd pick.
the coinflip is exactly that. so is the ray allen.the others are examples of things that have never happened in "history"
Dr. No
Footballguy
I also agree with this.Call it a superstition if you want to, but time and time again I've seen people who hit an absolute apex with insane seasons rarely follow them up.I hope I don't have to deal with this at all by not getting the #1 pick in either of my leagues.If I do get the #1 pick I am likely to take Johnson and manufacture a trade.Eric Dickerson was the same level of once-in-a generation talent.. and he regressed big time as well... then rebounded after that to have a great career.Peyton Manning couldn't follow up his massive effort either... but is still a great pick having a great career.Things happen when you go for 2000 yards... the team was doing poorly so they were willing to feed him the rock until he got it. Maybe they contend for a playoff spot this year and he gets "rested"maybe he gets hurt.I realize you can't "predict" those types of things.Regardless, I think the guy is amazing and rode him to a championship last year. And barring injury he's highly likely to get 1500 combined yards and 10 TD's.So.. i draft him and trade him. The bottom line is I don't want that risk on my team.
gregjcross
Footballguy
You all are talking about total yards, when the OP is talking rushing yards. There is a difference. I think both sides arguments are valid; CJ is a stud, yet he is unlikely to even rush for 1,800 yards --if relying on historical results per the OP-- but that doesn't mean he wont be (and should really be favored as) top 5.
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yup. Glad someone got it, I have been re-reading what I wrote and couldn't figure out where my wording was so confusing
a coinflip has nothing to do with regression to the mean. the others have nothing to do with regression to the mean. my post was based ENTIRELY on regression to the mean.cvnpoka said:
agreed. please note that I never said CJ WASN'T top 5 (not saying you were trying to imply that)just typical Shark Pool spastikness and such. It's (part of) what makes this place so great.
Banger
Footballguy
if he got 1800 yards he's still #1 last year by nearly 40 pts.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=370
great writeup by Chase Stuart, a regular here (and the basis for this post)
good conversation in the discussion section beneath the blog post as well.
Good reading, even if you decide to discard it.
great writeup by Chase Stuart, a regular here (and the basis for this post)
good conversation in the discussion section beneath the blog post as well.
Good reading, even if you decide to discard it.
your initial post doesnt say anything about regression to the mean. it appears your initial premise was entirely based on "history."
you only started parading regression to the mean lately but you are selectively applying and misapplying it. why wont mjd, ap, rice regress? they had fantastic years that were likely at least small amount above their "means." why is chris johnson gonna regress so much? are you saying that his true average is on par with ryan grant? that is absurd.
gregjcross
Footballguy
I think i played into my point, CJ is a lock for top 5 but likely wont get more than 1800
RudeDog
Footballguy
jk - couldn't resistIce Cream Man
Footballguy
The OP has a pretty good (if obvious) point. The amount of hostility, baiting, and sarcasm, here is depressing.
I've always treated Fantasy Football as entrepreneurship. Following the consensus, the trend, the "experts," is unlikely to serve one well in the long run. One can run all the stats one wants, but stats don't give one wisdom, instincts or creativity.
If everyone thinks CJ is the #1 RB, its probably a good reason not to take him.
I've always treated Fantasy Football as entrepreneurship. Following the consensus, the trend, the "experts," is unlikely to serve one well in the long run. One can run all the stats one wants, but stats don't give one wisdom, instincts or creativity.
If everyone thinks CJ is the #1 RB, its probably a good reason not to take him.
MJD and AP didn't have "fantastic" seasons. MJD's increase in yardage directly relates to extra carries. His YPA, catches, and TDs were right in line.AP actually had far LESS yardage than in previous years.Rice will regress. I think he reached his ceiling last year.
cvn, to further explain myselfMJD's career YPC, receptions, reception yardage, and TDs, by season and overall career averages:2006 - 5.7, 46, 436, 152007 - 4.6, 40, 407, 92008 - 4.2, 62, 565, 142009 - 4.5, 53, 374, 16aver - 4.7, 50, 446, 14so in 2009, he was 0.2 under, 3 receptions over, 72 yards under, and 2 TDs over his career averages. There is nothing to regress to the mean from. He was at his mean, within basic statistical significance. The only truly appreciable difference in perofrmance is that Fred Taylor left and MJD went from seasons of 166, 167, and 197 carries to 312 carries. That's about 19/game, very reasonable to assume that he can maintain that during 2010. Adrian Peterson:2007 - 238 for 1341, 5.6, 12 TDs, 19 rec, 268 yards, 1 TD, 13 total TDs2008 - 363 for 1760, 4.8, 10 TDs, 21 rec, 125 yards, 0 TD, 10 total TDs2009 - 314 for 1383, 4.4, 18 TDs, 43 rec, 436 yards, 0 TD, 18 total TDshis rushing stats were fairly average to below-average for him. His receiving stats showed a marked increase as did his TDs. I do not expect him to regress for the following reasons1) Chester Taylor is gone along with his 100 carries and 350ish yards. That's also another 40+ receptions to consider. Toby Gerhart might learn how to take over on 3rd down, but it's doubtful since rookies rarely do, especially since Gerhart never did at Stanford2) Gerhart MIGHT vulture TDs in short yardage situations, and in fact, I project him to get 3-4 TDs. However, I have AD projected right around 15 TDs with a noticeable increase in overall yardage and especially 3rd down receiving yardage. He is very good in the red zone. He has shown great progress as a receiver and actually outperformed Taylor in that respect last season. 3) AD is borderline "undervalued" in fantasy because the short-memoried folks of this planet only seem to remember his fumbles. so that is why I don't expect either of those 2 to regress to the norm.as for the Ryan Grant comparison, I don't get it. Ryan Grant's career average is DRASTICALLY bolstered by his rookie season. He averaged almost a full YPC more that season than he averaged in his 2 seasons as a full starter. It's much easier to produce in the last 7 games of the season with zero expectations than it is to produce over the course of an entire 16-game season. I'm calling Flash to produce more rushing yards, more TDs, more receptions, more receiving yards, and more YFS in his DOWN season than Grant has ever produced. For what it's worth, I think Grant will be down around 8-9 TDs next season at most as I believe Finley will vulture TDs in the red zone.Barry Sanders was pretty talented, and he posted the worst YPC of his career the season following his 2000 yarder. Jamaal Lewis dropped a full YPC and his TDs and rushing yardage literally were cut in half. Eric Dickerson dropped almost 1000 YFS the season following his 2k yarder, including a drop of 1.4 YPC. OJ had a whopping 3 TDs the season following his 2k season and his YPC went from 6.0 to 4.2, his YFS went from 2073 to 1314. EVERY SINGLE TIME...they ALL had noticeable drops, below their career averages, the season following. The 2k seasons are ANOMALIES, not standards. Brady passed for 50 TDs in 2007, yet has never broken 28 in any other season. Peyton put up 49 in 2004, yet has never broken 33 in any other season. Barry and OJ, 2 of the most gifted RBs in NFL history, took their already-inflated career YPC and upped it by about a YPC for that single season. Talented people, when the stars align perfectly, tend to excel. When the stars "disalign", they regress to the mean. Not only is their "extreme" season an anomaly, the corresponding follow-up season of relatively "poor" production is ALSO an anomaly. Interestingly enough, when you combine those 2 seasons together, you end up getting a fair estimation of what the RBs career averages are (accounting for injuries and such). That's just the way things seem to work.You are more than welcome to be glib or difficult or challenge this all you want. You don't have to accept anything you read or hear and you are more than free to do what you wish. Good luck. :(
yeah, you'd THINK it was obvious, wouldn't you? But then again, I might just be dealing with some angry Chris Johnson owners who really don't want to hear what I'm pushing.as for the hostility, baiting and sarcasm, well...welcome to the internet.
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but, you could say the same about mjd and ap. instead you factor it into your interpretation of their mean within "basic statistical significance."your argument is an exercise in selective endpoints, cherrypicked stats and misinterpreted concepts. you are punishing a player bc he had one of the most successful season oat. if your argument was that he is small and will wear down then fine whatever. instead you are bastardizing stats.
karmarooster
Footballguy
you know, this thread has really opened my eyes. not only will i avoid CJ, but i will avoid ALL players who had good seasons last year. if you had a good season in 2009, history suggests that you won't have a good one in 2010. reason for this being is that most players don't have good seasons, only a few do. if they already blew their load last year, what's left in the tank this time around?
Suggested Team:
QB Ryan
RB Moreno
RB A.Foster
RB Felix
WR Owens
WR Bowe
WR M.Wallace
TE Cooley
Suggested Team:
QB Ryan
RB Moreno
RB A.Foster
RB Felix
WR Owens
WR Bowe
WR M.Wallace
TE Cooley
my statement was specific.
5 RBs have eclipsed 2000 yards rushing in a season
The following season, they did much worse. Not just a little bit, but substantially worse.
Yes, it's a sample size of 5, but it's also 100%
I then brought in the follow-on seasons to the most incredible passing seasons ever.
Marino's 1984, Peyton's 2004, Brady's 2007. I didn't mention Warner's 1999 but it also bears mentioning here as well (4300 yards/41 TDs to 3400 yards/21 TDs)
Sample size is 9, still 100% correlation
I brought up their YPC in their 2000 yard season and compared it to their career averages. OJ and Barry both broke 6 YPC in their 2k season. Jamal Lewis hit 5.3 YPC in his 2k season, his career high otherwise was 4.4 in a season. Eric Dickerson rolled a 5.6 YPC in '84, he never broke 4.6 in a season for his entire career otherwise.
Someone asked about MJD and AD and why I don't think they're regress and I showed that they didn't have outstanding seasons to regress from. I provided data, past performances, evaluation based on situation. Someone brought up Ryan Grant so I explained that I think a down season from Chris Johnson will top Ryan Grant's best season ever.
i mentioned Johnson's size and his workload already, in the first post, I believe.
I never said anything about anyone having "good seasons". I said extreme seasons, and not just "extreme" but "best ever" seasons.
as in, the 5 highest single season rushing performances and the 5 highest single season passing TD performances.
I bastardized no stats. I merely brought to light history. Y'know, that whole "history tends to repeat itself"
but of course....
5 RBs have eclipsed 2000 yards rushing in a season
The following season, they did much worse. Not just a little bit, but substantially worse.
Yes, it's a sample size of 5, but it's also 100%
I then brought in the follow-on seasons to the most incredible passing seasons ever.
Marino's 1984, Peyton's 2004, Brady's 2007. I didn't mention Warner's 1999 but it also bears mentioning here as well (4300 yards/41 TDs to 3400 yards/21 TDs)
Sample size is 9, still 100% correlation
I brought up their YPC in their 2000 yard season and compared it to their career averages. OJ and Barry both broke 6 YPC in their 2k season. Jamal Lewis hit 5.3 YPC in his 2k season, his career high otherwise was 4.4 in a season. Eric Dickerson rolled a 5.6 YPC in '84, he never broke 4.6 in a season for his entire career otherwise.
Someone asked about MJD and AD and why I don't think they're regress and I showed that they didn't have outstanding seasons to regress from. I provided data, past performances, evaluation based on situation. Someone brought up Ryan Grant so I explained that I think a down season from Chris Johnson will top Ryan Grant's best season ever.
i mentioned Johnson's size and his workload already, in the first post, I believe.
I never said anything about anyone having "good seasons". I said extreme seasons, and not just "extreme" but "best ever" seasons.
as in, the 5 highest single season rushing performances and the 5 highest single season passing TD performances.
I bastardized no stats. I merely brought to light history. Y'know, that whole "history tends to repeat itself"
but of course....
I'll provide this again....link to voodoo
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Banger
Footballguy
so don't draft him. I don't think anyone drafting him is expecting a redo of last year. He can regress quite a bit and still be a ridiculously good Rb.
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[icon]
Insoxicated
Why are you projecting ADP to trend back toward pre-Favre numbers when Favre is still there? This is Brett's offense as long as he's still playing. ADP might pick up a bit more rushing yardage but it shouldn't come as any surprise that some of his yardage shifted to receiving yards and some vaporized with the Gunslinger under center. IMO ADP is looking at 330/1450 - 40/400.
Aardvarks
Footballguy
This thread is hilarious. Sometimes I marvel at how silly fantasy geeks can be. This is why I love it.
Adrian Peterson? Take him #1. I get it. But whoever passes on CJ at #2 is slurping Robitussin-DM with a straw.
Maurice Jones-Drew has already peaked, and his team is prepping another 5-11 season so they can move to L.A.
Ray Rice is Errict Rhett with better hands... who also has a TD vulture circling over him every Sunday.
Michael Turner is a damn good back but puh-leeze.
Chris Johnson is a special boy. Pass on him at your peril.
Adrian Peterson? Take him #1. I get it. But whoever passes on CJ at #2 is slurping Robitussin-DM with a straw.
Maurice Jones-Drew has already peaked, and his team is prepping another 5-11 season so they can move to L.A.
Ray Rice is Errict Rhett with better hands... who also has a TD vulture circling over him every Sunday.
Michael Turner is a damn good back but puh-leeze.
Chris Johnson is a special boy. Pass on him at your peril.
"regression to the mean" does not say that a player will do worse than the mean.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
It's hard to listen to an argument where you tell us he's not #1 by showing some statistical trend that most already know about, unless you're going to show us the trend that shows who if not him...Ultimately each player controls his own destiny. Each and every trend or record is made to be broken. The fact that those 4 guys couldn't do it means it's tough to do, not that it's impossible.
I didn't. I said he'd probably drop to about 15ish TDs and get an increase in receptions and receiving yards because Taylor isn't there. I have his rushing projected similarly with an extra 10/100(ish) receiving-wise and 15-16 TDs
I showed the trend that indicates why he's not #1 for me. I gave explanations for why I think MJD and AD will outscore him. I'm not real sure what else I'm supposed to do here.
go to the top of this thread, and hit CTRL-F. Type in the word "impossible". Your post is the 1st, this post is the 2nd.
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Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
You said:
You didn't say "It might not" or "It probably won't"... You said "It simply won't"Basically you're saying it can't happen. Doesn't matter if you used the word impossible or not. You might as well have. The issue is, you're saying it can't happen based on what 4 other RB's have done. I'm saying they only prove it's tough, not that it can't happen. Let the Titans and CJ control their own destiny. You've shown a trend, and I agree it will be tough, but I don't agree that it can't happen. And "It" isn't CJ landing in the #1 spot stats wise at the end of the year, "It" would be him ending close to the top.
fantasizing
Footballguy
I think that team is too strong and hence too risky. I would suggest:QB Jamarcus Russell RB Travis HenryWR Plaxico Burressand so on and so on.you know, this thread has really opened my eyes. not only will i avoid CJ, but i will avoid ALL players who had good seasons last year. if you had a good season in 2009, history suggests that you won't have a good one in 2010. reason for this being is that most players don't have good seasons, only a few do. if they already blew their load last year, what's left in the tank this time around?Suggested Team:QB RyanRB MorenoRB A.FosterRB FelixWR OwensWR BoweWR M.WallaceTE Cooley
Chief
Footballguy
Game, Set and Match. You can make all the predictions that you want. but you have to tweak them somehow to account for the aforementioned UPSIDE factor.
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Insoxicated
BumpSo under FBG scoring which is your guy? Which mod are you sending the money order do? I'd suggest Clayton, Rude, or COlin as i've had dealings with them before and they're great guys. Let me know when it's sent and I'll confirm it and get mine in their hands promptly.
OnThInIcE911
Footballguy
[icon] I would be willing to bet you a smaller sum like $50 or $100 on AP.
$500 is a bit steep for a single bet.
Edit: Actually I think I'm gonna try to make this bet via the poker forum I am a member of (twoplustwo) and am in a few leagues. Easier to xfer money via poker websites w/ people I know. Plus they might give me odds. I'll link you to it after I make the bet. If no one wants it on there I'd be willing to bet you on here.
$500 is a bit steep for a single bet.
Edit: Actually I think I'm gonna try to make this bet via the poker forum I am a member of (twoplustwo) and am in a few leagues. Easier to xfer money via poker websites w/ people I know. Plus they might give me odds. I'll link you to it after I make the bet. If no one wants it on there I'd be willing to bet you on here.
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