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Why would you draft Cam ahead of Matt Ryan? (1 Viewer)

mastergg

Footballguy
Matt Ryan is about assured of getting close to Brady/Peyton Manning numbers. Can't see any evidence that would point to a regression. Cam's rushing td's dropped almost 50% and now they have Mike Shula running the offense which looks to be going to a more conservative approach with less designed runs. When was Mike Shula relevant?? This offense might stink if they try to reign Cam in. He's not that great of a passer. This guy could be the bust of the year.

 

mastergg

Footballguy
been doing fantasy for 31 years. what type of offense do you see Carolina running under Mike Shula? Cam's value lies solely in his rushing yards and touchdowns. If that regresses what do you think you get from him. Ryan you can pencil in for 30-34 td passes and close to 4800 yards without a sweat.

 

mastergg

Footballguy
i'm not arguing. i'm asking. you're a panther fan obviously. what type of offense are you hearing they will run? i'm reading completely different things. I heard they will continue with what worked during that hot stretch he had, and i'm also hearing that they might scrap the read option. Ryan is a sure fire number 5 at the worst. Cam at best is a number four, and at worst out of top 12, like what happened to Vick

 
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mastergg

Footballguy
And yes, Ryan gets those with out a sweat. He has improved his stats roughly 10% every year, and with those offensive weapons there is nothing pointing to regression

 

Wise Old Owl

Footballguy
You seem sure Cam is going to regress and you think Matt Ryan is a lock to exceed his career highs, I'm not really sure why you feel the need to ask us our opinions

 

pantherclub

Footballguy
And yes, Ryan gets those with out a sweat. He has improved his stats roughly 10% every year, and with those offensive weapons there is nothing pointing to regression
word of advice since you haven't learned this in 30 years. You never make a player projections as their career highs. That's insanity. As for the panthers it is a simplified read option with more throwing down the field. Shula is making it a faster quick strike offense with a supposed emphasis on rushing. Although they have said this every year. I think cam and the panthers explodes this year.

3600 passing 600 rushing. With 30 total tds as his floor

Ryan will be close one way or another and I doubt either player busts.

 

cstu

Footballguy
been doing fantasy for 31 years. what type of offense do you see Carolina running under Mike Shula? Cam's value lies solely in his rushing yards and touchdowns. If that regresses what do you think you get from him. Ryan you can pencil in for 30-34 td passes and close to 4800 yards without a sweat.
So you think bad Cam is a bad passer and Shula is dumb enough to take away his one strength to force him to be a pocket passer?

 

mastergg

Footballguy
Ryan had 4719 yards last year and 32 tds. add steven jackson swing passes and he goes over 4800 this year. people projected Cam way higher last year and he regressed and through the first 8 weeks people were using the "bust" word to describe him. My take is that people are being too optimistic projecting Cam to improve as opposed to Ryan. Ryan seems like a sure fire safer choice imho. The reason i bring this up is that they are neck/neck in the rankings. And as for Shula what do we know? He's been Cam's qb coach which means he was his go to guy during his slump/immature period earlier last year. i think it's strange people aren't downgrading him based on Shula.

 

pantherclub

Footballguy
I believe the phrase you used was "bust of the year". You don't help your argument when you add something like that.

If they are neck and neck in the rankings and within 5 ish spots in ADP. Then I am not feeling your outrage or rant.

 

Pantherz

Footballguy
Tough crowd. FWIW I would agree that Ryan represents a safer pick than Newton. Newton is short on weapons to throw the ball to. If you take Cam you are betting on alot rushing TDs. If the Panthers would have addressed the 2nd WR position (they added Hixon, but.....) then I would have a lot more confidence in Cam this year. He finished strong the last eight games of 2012, and things looked better, but now we have a new OC. Alot of question marks in my opinion. I hope it works out.

On the other hand Ryan has Julio Jones, Roddy White, Tony Gonzales and now Stephen Jackson and Jaquizz Rodgers. That's a lot of weapons. The only bad thing I've read on Atlanta is losing a couple of O-linemen.

 

Neil Beaufort Zod

Footballguy
A stronger running game could mean more rushing work and fewer passing opportunities as they become more balanced. I'm sure they were happy to lean on Ryan when Michael Turner was falling into the pile. And if your league really rewards rushing or out-of-position scores, Cam looks like he could have the higher ceiling.

But Ryan has proven he can do it, and he has 10 games in a dome so weather won't mess him up most weeks. They're both winners in my opinion, but as the Falcons have the better team...Ryan should be the safer choice.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Where's FF Ninja?
Too busy laughing at this clown to reply. But also I don't usually come in here on the weekends.

Matt Ryan is about assured of getting close to Brady/Peyton Manning numbers. Can't see any evidence that would point to a regression. Cam's rushing td's dropped almost 50% and now they have Mike Shula running the offense which looks to be going to a more conservative approach with less designed runs. When was Mike Shula relevant?? This offense might stink if they try to reign Cam in. He's not that great of a passer. This guy could be the bust of the year.
You don't see any evidence for a regression for Ryan, but you do for Newton? Newton only threw the ball 485 times last year and he still finished QB6. It took Ryan 615 passes to reach QB5.

As for the laughable quote about passing... geez. Really? Newton's career (2 year) yard per attempt average is 7.9 vs. Matt Ryan's 7.2 ypa. If Newton progresses even just a little bit, he'd hit 5k yards if given 615 passes. So if I was a Newton owner, I'd look forward to some more pocket time for him. He's been durable so far, but why push your luck running the ball when he's been so productive passing? But my guess is that he still rushes quite a bit.

And yes, Newton's rushing TDs dropped 43% from 2011, but guess what? He still led the league. His ypc actually increased from 5.6 to 5.8. He only ran the ball 127 times last year. About the same pace that Griffin was on. That number could be scaled back so long as his passing attempts are increased and he'll be just fine.

This is coming from a Newton doubter his rookie year. I didn't take him in a single draft. That team looked terrible and I thought he'd need time to adapt. So far his first two years have far exceeded Matt Ryan's first two years even if you ignore rushing stats.

Your whole argument is poorly founded and sounds rather ignorant. Then you asked people why and don't listen to the answers. wtf?

 

Todd Andrews

Footballguy
Wasnt Cam's rookie season a top 20 all time fantasy qb season?

With more maturity and development, good coaching, and better weapons, Cam's upside is higher than Ryan's. Although Ryan has developed into a solid and consistent fantasy QB1.

I actually still prefer RGIII over both in dynasty.

 

pantherclub

Footballguy
Wasnt Cam's rookie season a top 20 all time fantasy qb season?

With more maturity and development, good coaching, and better weapons, Cam's upside is higher than Ryan's. Although Ryan has developed into a solid and consistent fantasy QB1.

I actually still prefer RGIII over both in dynasty.
The knee and the concussions are going to submarine rg3.

 

lbouchard

Footballguy
Cam has finished as a top 5 QB in both of his first two years. Ryan has yet to do so. I think Julio takes another step forward but SJax is a massive upgrade over Turner. Probably similar stats for Ryan while Newton's floor is high due to rushing and his ceiling is through the roof.

 

ldizzle

Footballguy
I wouldn't take Newton over Ryan. If you want an in-depth breakdown on Cam, go check out this article. https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/06/28/cam-newtons-fantasy-value-an-in-depth-analysis/ . Last year Newton scored 32% of his ENTIRE fantasy output during a 3 game stretch against Philly, KC, and Atlanta. I need more consistency from my QB1.
That some fuzzy math. Take away Ryan's top 3 games and they avg almost the same amount of points. imo that just proves that Cam's ceiling is just that much higher, which is why some people prefer to take him before Ryan.

EDIT for scoring minus top 3 games

Cam - 21.4 pts avg

Ryan - 21.7 pts avg

Cam top 3 games: 40.5, 40.0, 33.4

Ryan top 3 games: 35.5, 32.8, 32.5

 
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death of the cool

Footballguy
Last year in my league that gives 3pts per passing TD...Cam (in a a down year) ranked 3rd and scored 358 pts

Ryan (in his career year so far) ranked 6th and scored 333.

I'm not sure why you would expect Newton's rushing yards to decrease much...most of his yards come on broken pass plays,

If Newton rushes for 700 yards again with 7 TDs (which are the consensus projections on fantasy pros), Cam can put up a very average 20 tds and 3900 passing yards and Ryan would still have to have a career year to pass him.

...and thats just comparing if Ryan has a career year and Newton has an average year. What if Newton goes off again for double digit TDs? What if he puts up 25 Tds instead of 20?

Either could easily happen and he is vying for QB1.

 

Keith Lewis

Footballguy
The question was why draft cam over Matt?

My answer is because I believe Cam will score more fantasy points.

Pretty simple.

 

ConnSKINS26

Footballguy
Wasnt Cam's rookie season a top 20 all time fantasy qb season?

With more maturity and development, good coaching, and better weapons, Cam's upside is higher than Ryan's. Although Ryan has developed into a solid and consistent fantasy QB1.

I actually still prefer RGIII over both in dynasty.
The knee and the concussions are going to submarine rg3.
He's nearly fully recovered from the knee, and never even missed much time from the concussion. Unless you think he'll always play with the reckless abandon of a green rookie who feels he needs to put an entire failing franchise on his shoulders, then I can see why these injuries would worry you.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Ryan is safer. However, the last two years, Cam had been the 4th QB in my league. Ryan has been 6th and 9th.

 

pantherclub

Footballguy
Wasnt Cam's rookie season a top 20 all time fantasy qb season?

With more maturity and development, good coaching, and better weapons, Cam's upside is higher than Ryan's. Although Ryan has developed into a solid and consistent fantasy QB1.

I actually still prefer RGIII over both in dynasty.
The knee and the concussions are going to submarine rg3.
He's nearly fully recovered from the knee, and never even missed much time from the concussion. Unless you think he'll always play with the reckless abandon of a green rookie who feels he needs to put an entire failing franchise on his shoulders, then I can see why these injuries would worry you.
A. You don't know if he is fully recovered until he actually starts playing and practicing

B. he has had 2 knee blowouts and two concussions in 3ish years. That's not a good trend.

I like watching him play put he simply must adjust his style if he wants to have any chance of a long career.

 

JustinHawkins

Footballguy
Both look like great FF QBs to me. I do wish the Panthers would have upgraded the receiving core. To me it's Olsen, then a rapidly aging Smitty and then no one.

I also like RG3 over both. Homer alert in full effect though

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Ryan is safer. However, the last two years, Cam had been the 4th QB in my league. Ryan has been 6th and 9th.
Nice logic
Cam has a new OC and his weapons aren't that great. There is room to regress, maybe even a lot if Carolina gets away from using Newton at the GL so much.

Ryan has the same high powered offense. It seems almost impossible for Ryan not to be a top 10 QB, but can he really be much better than last year where Cam still outscored him? Probably not.

 

The Kansas Comet

Footballguy
In 2011, Cam had the 26th most rushing yards in the NFL. In 2012, he had the 24th most. That helps bump his floor up considerably even if his passing is mediocre. Both are very nice options, but think Cam's ceiling is higher than Ryan's.

 

MattFancy

Footballguy
Wasnt Cam's rookie season a top 20 all time fantasy qb season?

With more maturity and development, good coaching, and better weapons, Cam's upside is higher than Ryan's. Although Ryan has developed into a solid and consistent fantasy QB1.

I actually still prefer RGIII over both in dynasty.
The knee and the concussions are going to submarine rg3.
He's nearly fully recovered from the knee, and never even missed much time from the concussion. Unless you think he'll always play with the reckless abandon of a green rookie who feels he needs to put an entire failing franchise on his shoulders, then I can see why these injuries would worry you.
A. You don't know if he is fully recovered until he actually starts playing and practicing

B. he has had 2 knee blowouts and two concussions in 3ish years. That's not a good trend.

I like watching him play put he simply must adjust his style if he wants to have any chance of a long career.
Doesn't Rodgers have his share of concussions? No one is even talking about that when they bring him up.

Sure the knee injury was major and could slow him down. But RG3 is already a solid pocket passer and the knee injury will make him work harder to become a better pocket passer.

And all the talk about the Skins offense is going to get him killed. The 3 plays he got hurt on (concussion, 1st knee injury, ACL) were not designed runs. The concussion came on a hit to his head when he was trying to slide out of bounds. The hit Ngata had on him in the Ravens game for his first knee injury was due to him scrambling trying to pick up extra yards. And the injury in the Seattle game was him falling out of bounds and then slipping on a bad snap. None of those came on a read-option or desgined QB running play.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Cam's ceiling is scary high, both on a per game, and per season level.

Last year was a down year for Cam and Ryan's best year by a good margin - they scored about the same. What am I missing?

 

karmarooster

Footballguy
Cam's ceiling is scary high, both on a per game, and per season level.

Last year was a down year for Cam and Ryan's best year by a good margin - they scored about the same. What am I missing?
This is true, Cam had a 'down' year relative to his rookie year - and (outside of his personal development) nothing on the team has changed to suggest he will return to rookie year form or exceed it. The team still has an old WR1 and not much else. I mean maybe you can quibble and suggest LaFell will get better. Maybe he will. But it's clear Carolina did not add either of (a) a beastly WR or TE or (b) an OC who has a record of exploiting running QBs for all they're worth. Now there's a certain argument that goes along the lines "Cam STILL did it last year, without those weapons, so he can this year again." And of course he's a young QB still getting better. But he's swimming upstream, and will have to make a huge output of scoring basically by himself - by running and by chucking to basically league average receiving options.

Ryan OTOH had a good year by his standards, in fact a career year thus far. Unlike Cam, there are still factors to suggest he will either replicate or surpass last year's career year. He still has two WRs better than Cam's WR1, and a TE basically equal to Olsen for purposes of this year. Ryan himself could actually regress slightly in his own ability (or simply match last year), yet put up better numbers because Julio is a year better and a year closer to having all the skills that only Megatron currently possesses.

People last year (FF Ninja, Pantherclub IIRC) basically argued against Ryan by saying "What are ya gonna do, project a career year??" Yes, that's exactly what I did and will do for this year. He's 28 years old, playing in a dome, with the best receiving weapons in the league. It's no longer his first but SECOND year playing in a wide-open aerial attack. Of course SJax could tip the balance back towards a run team, but I don't think they brought in a 30 year old RB to try to replicate the offense from 2-3 years ago with Turner.

It would be silly to project Manning or Brady for career years because they are too old. It would be silly to project Tannehill, Dalton, or probably even Cam for career years because they are too young. It makes perfect sense to project a QB for a career year IF (1) the receivers a QB has for a given year are likely to be the best receivers he will ever play with, AND (2) he's in the window for peak performance. I simply don't understand the logic that we should never project a player to have a career year when all of the factors point to it.

 
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karmarooster

Footballguy
For what it's worth, I would probably take Ryan in a league where QBs get 20 yards per point, or where QBs get 5 or 6 points for passing TDs. I would take Cam in a league where QBs get 25 points per yard, or where QBs get 4 points for passing TDs. I have them as QBs 4 and 5.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Cam's ceiling is scary high, both on a per game, and per season level.

Last year was a down year for Cam and Ryan's best year by a good margin - they scored about the same. What am I missing?
This is true, Cam had a 'down' year relative to his rookie year - and nothing on the team has changed to suggest he will return to rookie year form or exceed it. The team still has an old WR1 and not much else. I mean maybe you can quibble and suggest LaFell will get better. Maybe he will. But it's clear Carolina did not add either of (a) a beastly WR or TE or (b) an OC who has a record of exploiting running QBs for all they're worth. Now there's a certain argument that goes along the lines "Cam STILL did it last year, without those weapons, so he can this year again." And of course he's a young QB still getting better. But he's swimming upstream, and will have to make a huge output of scoring basically by himself - by running and by chucking to basically league average receiving options.
You're putting too much into his weapons, in my opinion. You're selling Smith and Olsen short, and RBs count as weapons too. There is some offensive talent around him.

Beyond that - you have to look at Cam's 2012 season outside of a FF context, to project his future FF production. The read option, as it was used, failed. They put too much into it, it didn't work, and Cam wasn't ready to be placed in 3rd and long so often. His RB production was league best in 2011, and near the bottom in 2012. Part of that was injury, but again, a lot of that was system failure.

Look at what happened when that changed, and the team went back to what it did in 2011 - the Panthers won games, Newton stopped turning the ball over, and his production went up.

Over the second half of the season, Cam was the #1 QB in fantasy football. There is reason to believe that 2013 will be more 2nd half than first (2012 #s).

And this is all with below baseline passing production. There is massive room for improvement on 4000/20 in that department. I'm talking about 700 yards and 10 TDs. Not that it's likely, but it's there to take with some moderate improvement.

Ryan's ceiling is very close to Newton's floor. Draft accordingly.

 
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steveski

Footballguy
Wasnt Cam's rookie season a top 20 all time fantasy qb season?

With more maturity and development, good coaching, and better weapons, Cam's upside is higher than Ryan's. Although Ryan has developed into a solid and consistent fantasy QB1.

I actually still prefer RGIII over both in dynasty.
The knee and the concussions are going to submarine rg3.
He's nearly fully recovered from the knee, and never even missed much time from the concussion. Unless you think he'll always play with the reckless abandon of a green rookie who feels he needs to put an entire failing franchise on his shoulders, then I can see why these injuries would worry you.
A. You don't know if he is fully recovered until he actually starts playing and practicing

B. he has had 2 knee blowouts and two concussions in 3ish years. That's not a good trend.

I like watching him play put he simply must adjust his style if he wants to have any chance of a long career.
Doesn't Rodgers have his share of concussions? No one is even talking about that when they bring him up.

Sure the knee injury was major and could slow him down. But RG3 is already a solid pocket passer and the knee injury will make him work harder to become a better pocket passer.

And all the talk about the Skins offense is going to get him killed. The 3 plays he got hurt on (concussion, 1st knee injury, ACL) were not designed runs. The concussion came on a hit to his head when he was trying to slide out of bounds. The hit Ngata had on him in the Ravens game for his first knee injury was due to him scrambling trying to pick up extra yards. And the injury in the Seattle game was him falling out of bounds and then slipping on a bad snap. None of those came on a read-option or desgined QB running play.
The fact that they weren't designed run plays proves the point even more. They were just him trying to make something out of nothing and trying to take it that extra yard when he could have slid a yard earlier and been just fine. It's hard to blame the kid, he's got a lot of heart. Someone needs to get into his head, which nobody has been able to do yet, and tell him that he CAN NOT fight for that extra yard because it hurts the team more than it helps the team. Even Eli Manning, who probably has a worse slide than my grandma, manages to avoid getting hit while sliding.

As far as being on topic, put me in the boat that thinks Cam's ceiling is sky high, but Ryan will be the safest play. I just don't like the fact that the Panthers have no weapons on offense (besides Cam) and I don't like the unknowns that come with a new OC. A lot of the estimates I see in here are saying, "Cam didn't pass as much, so if he did, look at his numbers now!" Well, yeah, but then you have to take from his rushing numbers too. Also, if he becomes more of a pocket passer, defenses will adjust to that and maybe his passing numbers wouldn't be quite as good.

 

karmarooster

Footballguy
I don't think there's much besides wishful thinking and awe over Cam's general talent to support your conclusion.

(1) Whatever Cam's weapons are, they are essentially the same as last year, perhaps worse if/when Smith starts to decline. Whatever Ryan's weapons are, they are essentially the same as last year, perhaps better if Julio continues to improve. And RBs Dwill and Jstew are at BEST a push with SJax when it comes to receiving ability.

(2) Are you not going to address the change in OC? Why would you assume that the 2nd half of 2012 is what we should expect, when the OC got fired and they brought in a new guy? If the 2nd half of 2012 worked so well, why did they fire the OC? I'd like to think too that the 2nd half is the baseline, but that's just what I'd like to think. Other than saying "we all saw it worked, and the new OC is probably smart and will do what worked." That's not enough.

(3) We may have already seen Cam's floor. It was the first half of 2012. While the yardage projects out to roughly 3,800 + 650 rushing (approximating Ryan's passing yards output in fantasy points), his first half projects to 20 total TDs and the second half projects to 34 total TDs. So no, Cam's floor does not equal Ryan's ceiling, because of the TDs. (I didn't realize the partial truth to your statement, based on yardage, until I did the math).

You make reasonable arguments that they finally 'figured it out' last year, but no one would find it surprising if we saw the same old scenario play out - the defense sucks, they get behind, the running game doesn't work, and Cam starts to pout. I've seen that episode many times. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but you're certainly over estimating his floor.

I agree that Cam has a higher ceiling (at some point in his career) - he can be a 4,500+ yard passer and a 600+ yard rusher. But that isn't going to happen this year in all likelihood.

You say I put too much weight on the caliber of receiving options; that's only because Ryan and Cam are on opposite ends of the spectrum (well, Cam isn't playing for SD or Jax so maybe not quite to that extent). It's not as though we are splitting hairs in comparing ATL vs. DEN for example for WRs. Anyways the WRs don't necessarily make of break the QB - but they do suggest whether or not a QB will have a career year.

 

pantherclub

Footballguy
Cam starts to pout. Lmfao. What episodes are you talking about? His record setting rookie year or his "down" year when he still beat Ryan's career year?

What the hell does maturity have to do with fantasy?

 
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Concept Coop

Footballguy
As far as being on topic, put me in the boat that thinks Cam's ceiling is sky high, but Ryan will be the safest play. I just don't like the fact that the Panthers have no weapons on offense (besides Cam) and I don't like the unknowns that come with a new OC. A lot of the estimates I see in here are saying, "Cam didn't pass as much, so if he did, look at his numbers now!" Well, yeah, but then you have to take from his rushing numbers too. Also, if he becomes more of a pocket passer, defenses will adjust to that and maybe his passing numbers wouldn't be quite as good.
I think this is a reasonable stance, but personally disagree.

Cam has never had great weapons around him. Why does it matter this year? Why is that enough to make Ryan safer, when Cam has finished top 5 in his only attempts to do so? Ryan has great weapons and hasn't been as productive as Newton. Less of Newtons production is reliant on his weapons, too.

As for his passing number resulting in fewer rushing attempts - possibly. But give me more first downs, fewer interceptions, and thus, an increase in snaps, and I like my chances.

 

karmarooster

Footballguy
Even though Cam and Ryan were basically tied in fantasy output last year, they weren't tied in fantasy owners winning percentage:

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasyfootball/story/22385114/offseason-extra-finding-winning-players

Across all (CBS) leagues, Ryan's team won 52.8% of the time. Whatever Cam was, it was below Freeman at 50.8%. That sort of win % is going to weigh fantasy output vs. order of draft (how else would Russell Wilson finish 4th?). Ryan's higher win % reflects the facts that he was drafted (slightly) lower than Cam last year, and was more consistent from week 1 to 16.

 
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pantherclub

Footballguy
Even though Cam and Ryan were basically tied in fantasy output last year, they weren't tied in fantasy owners winning percentage:

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasyfootball/story/22385114/offseason-extra-finding-winning-players

Across all (CBS) leagues, Ryan's team won 52.8% of the time. Whatever Cam was, it was below Freeman at 50.8%. That sort of win % is going to weigh fantasy output vs. order of draft (how else would Russell Wilson finish 4th?). Ryan's higher win % reflects the facts that he was drafted (slightly) lower than Cam last year, and was more consistent from week 1 to 16.
lol. Yes that is completely relevant. Lol
 

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