karmarooster
Footballguy
How is winning percentage irrelevant?
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Why would you draft Cam ahead of Matt Ryan? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter mastergg
- Start date
Concept Coop
Footballguy
1. They have a legit #1 WR, one of the better receiving TEs, and a very talented backfield. It hasn't stopped Newton from besting Ryan's best, in both of his seasons.
2. As for the co-ordinator - I think it's being over-stated. This is Cam's offense and any system they run will be tailored to fit his ability. It's not as though the previous system was great. The play calling and game planning was some of the worst in the league.
3. Cam's worst 8 game sample isn't his floor. And that wasn't my suggestion, so save the partial truth comments. Cam's worst has been better than Ryan's best, over a 16 game season, in terms of FF numbers. Ryan had a crazy number of pass attempts, while Cam got off to a slow start and was hindered by coaching failures.
How is this wishful thinking when Cam can match his worst season, Ryan can match his best, and Cam still scores more points?
so people who drafted ryan more won more times? This stat is bunk asa deciding factor of choosing between the 2. Ryan went way later than cam last year, which may be the reason for that stat being higher. One player doesnt win your fantasy games
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Because it's relative to draft position, thus, not relevant to this conversation. We are talking about who is a better pick this season.
A couple posts mention Steven Jackson's receiving ability as a bonus for Ryan, but what about his running ability? Doesn't the fact that they will have a seemingly much more capable runner mean they might be a bit more balanced in attack? Turner was horrawful last year. If Jackson can put up something similar to what Turner did 2-3 years ago as opposed to what Turner did 1 year ago, then that's good new for the Falcons, but I'm not sure it's necessarily good news for Ryan from a fantasy perspective.
pantherclub
Footballguy
for starters that's assuming an awful lot secondly newton was going in the early 2nd while Ryan was in the early 4rth. By your stats that's only 2% difference while one had a down year and another had a career year. But I don't think you can take just one player and factor it into some win percentage. It's way more involved then one player.
pantherclub
Footballguy
agree. It's silly to try and analyze players like that. But God bless the guys that do.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Concept Coop - I still disagree to some extent, but appreciate your reasoning and discussion.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
steveski
Footballguy
True, but keeping the defense honest could open up more big plays for the passing offense.
death of the cool
Footballguy
Is this even debatable?
Winning % takes into account the entire team and not just the individual...It adds so many variables (like injuries, drafting ability, free agency) that are uncontrollable. The only reason it is being brought up is because it is one of the few stats (however poor it is) that has Ryan ahead of Cam.
If you think that it is a sound statistic, make yourself up a cheetsheet based on winning % and go strictly by that for your draft...I'm sure your league mates would welcome it.
As for one reason (other than all of the variables that I listed) that Cam may be lower than Ryan in winning percentage is "who was drafting Cam last year?" I would say that after his rookie year that his draft stock was inflated and he was seen as the flavor of the draft...so people were reaching for him. Who usually reaches in fantasy drafts? poor drafters. If poor drafters are drafting Cam, how do you think the rest of their draft results were?
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Simple answer. Ryan's ceiling is around qb4 or 5. Cam's ceiling is qb1. Some people like to gamble and some people don't
Agree.
I took Ryan at 7.11 in my main league last year. I'm sure plenty of other people did something similar.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
In what league did Matt Ryan go 7.11 last season?Leonidas said:
A league with people I know. Fairly competitive. One of the best steals of the draft. Unfortunately I took MJD with 1.11, reached for Steven Jackson in the third, and took Witten as my only TE (the draft was pretty early), and at one point was 1-4 with the second most points scored because I got screwed by every matchup (scoring 2-3rd most in league and losing) so...yeah. I still had a ton of problems and only finished 5/12
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why not? You can project a guy to do better than the year before and it happens to be his best year to date. whats wrong with projecting a handful of guys to have career years? It sound like that is what alot of people are doing with a guy, for example like Jamaal Charles.
pantherclub
Footballguy
well good luck with that. I think 99% of the people on this board would all agree that projecting career highs for players is a sure fire way to screw up your draft and fantasy team. But if it works for you then go balls out brother.
Does that mean 99% of the people on this board would all agree that they got Matt Ryan's projections wrong for last year? And the year before? And the year before?
If 99% of the board all agrees they get Ryan's projections wrong every year...should we really care what they say?
adrenaline
Footballguy
I love Matt Ryan, I would & have taken Newton ahead of him. Give me a running QB that hasn't missed a game in the NFL everyday of the week & twice on Sunday. He was pretty durable in college too.
I really don't see how Ryan is the better choice here at all.
Cam has been a top 5 QB his first two years in the league because of his rushing ability. Even if his rushing yards decrease, most of his rushing td's have been in the redzone and I don't see the Panthers taking away that option for Cam because it makes the offense so much more dynamic in the redzone. Cam is only going to improve as a passer, and I read somewhere recently that his numbers in the pocket were much better than outside of the pocket, i think it was a QB Rating of 95, so all this talk about Cam not being a good pocket passer is bogus. He does need to improve on his accuracy, I am sure we can all agree on that.
All this talk about the Falcons having incredible weapons and the Panthers having none is pretty ridiculous too. Sure the Panther's got off to a slow start, are a much younger team and the Falcons clearly have better weapons on offense overall, but we can't discount the Panthers weapons as if they are non-existant. Steve Smith still demands a lot of respect and has a couple of good years left in him. Greg Olson is a great TE. The Panthers have a great running game that was slowed down by injuries last season. Lafell, Hixon, Ted Ginn Jr, David Gettis are not horrible as #2/3 WR's. One of them needs to step up. Personally, I think it will be Lafell, and really the Panthers just need to do a better job of getting the ball in his hands. He flashed moments of greatness all year last year. They kept throwing the ball to Legadu Nannee last year, and he kept killing the drives, never understood that one.
As far as fantasy goes, I think Ryan has reached pretty close to his peak, and we have yet to see anywhere close to Cam's full potential. I would much rather take the gamble myself.
If you want the boring pocket passer that will get you around 30 TD passes, go with Ryan. I think Cam takes a step forward this year though, with improved leadership, voted as being team Captain this year, and being the #1 fantasy QB down the stretch last year. I would take Cam any day.
Cam has been a top 5 QB his first two years in the league because of his rushing ability. Even if his rushing yards decrease, most of his rushing td's have been in the redzone and I don't see the Panthers taking away that option for Cam because it makes the offense so much more dynamic in the redzone. Cam is only going to improve as a passer, and I read somewhere recently that his numbers in the pocket were much better than outside of the pocket, i think it was a QB Rating of 95, so all this talk about Cam not being a good pocket passer is bogus. He does need to improve on his accuracy, I am sure we can all agree on that.
All this talk about the Falcons having incredible weapons and the Panthers having none is pretty ridiculous too. Sure the Panther's got off to a slow start, are a much younger team and the Falcons clearly have better weapons on offense overall, but we can't discount the Panthers weapons as if they are non-existant. Steve Smith still demands a lot of respect and has a couple of good years left in him. Greg Olson is a great TE. The Panthers have a great running game that was slowed down by injuries last season. Lafell, Hixon, Ted Ginn Jr, David Gettis are not horrible as #2/3 WR's. One of them needs to step up. Personally, I think it will be Lafell, and really the Panthers just need to do a better job of getting the ball in his hands. He flashed moments of greatness all year last year. They kept throwing the ball to Legadu Nannee last year, and he kept killing the drives, never understood that one.
As far as fantasy goes, I think Ryan has reached pretty close to his peak, and we have yet to see anywhere close to Cam's full potential. I would much rather take the gamble myself.
If you want the boring pocket passer that will get you around 30 TD passes, go with Ryan. I think Cam takes a step forward this year though, with improved leadership, voted as being team Captain this year, and being the #1 fantasy QB down the stretch last year. I would take Cam any day.
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B-Deep
Footballguy
I am late to this thread, but i just read this and did some math, and in 2015 Ryan should throw for 6280 yards
I am no genius, but I would think this makes him an above average dynasty prospect,
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Projecting career numbers for guys like Ryan is risky because he has such a long track record and has already scored top ten seasons. Projecting career numbers for someone like Dalton is much safer since he is relatively new and hasn't set the bar too high. It all depends on the player IMO.
hauser42
Footballguy
I would take Ryan. Never been fan of QB that scores a lot of points running the ball. The season to season numbers can be up and down. Newton might not see the decrease that past
guys but I will let someone else deal with Cam. Falcons have a huge edge on talent in offense and Sheila is not likely to open it up like the Falcons do.
guys but I will let someone else deal with Cam. Falcons have a huge edge on talent in offense and Sheila is not likely to open it up like the Falcons do.
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Cam is probably a slightly better option in most scoring systems. Mine is basic with yardage bonuses, so Cam's rushing yards are minimized. However, i do feel there is far more uncertainty with Cam this year having a new O.C. who we really know nothing about. Ryan should be 4800 yards and 33 td's. If Cam has a Vick-like dropoff in rushing td's, which is definitely possible, he loses most of his value.
Fantasy Fool
Footballguy
Here is the weekly breakdown from 2012, this is using FFPC scoring.
[SIZE=12pt]Week 1 – Ryan 35, Cam 18[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 2 – Cam 30, Ryan 21[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 3 – Ryan 25, Cam 16[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 4 – Cam 33, Ryan 29[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 5 – Ryan 25, Cam 11[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 6 – Panthers Bye Week[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 7 – Falcons Bye Week[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 8 – Ryan 27, Cam 17[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 9 – Cam 24, Ryan 18[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 10 – Ryan 32, Cam 19[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 11 – Cam 21, Ryan 10[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 12 – Cam 41, Ryan 22[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 13 – Cam 31, Ryan 12[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 14 – Cam 40, Ryan 24[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 15 – Ryan 25, Cam 20[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 16 – Ryan 32, Cam 24[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 17 – Ryan 17, Cam 15[/SIZE]
If you had 2 identical teams playing every week, Matt Ryan wins 8-7 through the 15 weeks both QBs played. Look at the under 20 performances, which for a QB is not a good fantasy ouput. Cam had 6 games below 20 points. Ryan had 4 games below 20 points. I bolded his 3 game stretch that was 32% of his fantasy production for the year. Take out those 3 games, and his output for each week in the rest of the games wasn't anything consistence.
There is my argument to take consistency over boom/bust type players. Thanks for reading!!!!!!!
[SIZE=12pt]Week 1 – Ryan 35, Cam 18[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 2 – Cam 30, Ryan 21[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 3 – Ryan 25, Cam 16[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 4 – Cam 33, Ryan 29[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 5 – Ryan 25, Cam 11[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 6 – Panthers Bye Week[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 7 – Falcons Bye Week[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 8 – Ryan 27, Cam 17[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 9 – Cam 24, Ryan 18[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 10 – Ryan 32, Cam 19[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 11 – Cam 21, Ryan 10[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 12 – Cam 41, Ryan 22[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 13 – Cam 31, Ryan 12[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 14 – Cam 40, Ryan 24[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 15 – Ryan 25, Cam 20[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 16 – Ryan 32, Cam 24[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Week 17 – Ryan 17, Cam 15[/SIZE]
If you had 2 identical teams playing every week, Matt Ryan wins 8-7 through the 15 weeks both QBs played. Look at the under 20 performances, which for a QB is not a good fantasy ouput. Cam had 6 games below 20 points. Ryan had 4 games below 20 points. I bolded his 3 game stretch that was 32% of his fantasy production for the year. Take out those 3 games, and his output for each week in the rest of the games wasn't anything consistence.
There is my argument to take consistency over boom/bust type players. Thanks for reading!!!!!!!
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Vick was never a goal line back. I'd be careful about expecting Cam's rushing TD's to fall.
Monsters of the Midway
Footballguy
hauser42
Footballguy
And why can't Ryan be in the talk for number 1 spot? With the talent in Atlanta he could jump up to top spot. If Cam doesn't get his rushing touchdowns his value will go down easily. Ryan will be throwing the ball and that is main way they move the ball and put it in the end zone.Monsters of the Midway said:
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Because Cams advantage to pass guys like Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and Manning is his legs. Ryan has to out perform all of those guy doing what they do, and Ryan isn't in the same league as they are.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Because he is strictly a pocket QB, and not even one of the top 5 pocket QBs.
Having Julio, White, and Gonzo is nice, but that doesn't make Ryan an actual elite "NFL QB". He will be close to an elite "fantasy QB" for now.
BUt yes, Cam has more potential to finish a season as the #1 QB than Ryan does. He won't, but I see more potential for it.
That said, for this season I will take Matt Ryan over Newton. I like the stability of Ryan and expect good solid consistent numbers all year, and I do think he will outscore Newton.
Also kind of wondering if Steven Jackson there will vulture some would-be passing TDs, not to mention just a few more runs per game in general.
hauser42
Footballguy
Brady easily can fall out of top 5 this year. Falcons are also opening up offense with Kroetter running it. Jackson will keep the defense honest and allow the passing game to be better. Ryan has everything to be a top 5 QB this year and beyond.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He was top 5 in my league last year in terms of scoring. He would need a jump in passing of about 400 yards and 8 TDs to likely lockdown the #1 spot.
JustinHawkins
Footballguy
Just took Cam in the early 4th in a redraft and feel great about it.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
If Ryan doesn't get passing yards and passing TDs his value goes down easily.
Newton is the goal line back and is going to score TDs on the ground. He's as safe as most RBs, in terms of rushing TDs.
I'm really struggling with Cam this year. I want so bad to target him because I love the floor due to the rushing production. I also feel he's potentially a value this year after going so high last season.
What I can't get past is the supporting cast. Yes, I know it's the same as last season but Steve Smith is a year older and what happens if he gets injured? Greg Olsen becomes the #1 receiving threat!?!?
What I can't get past is the supporting cast. Yes, I know it's the same as last season but Steve Smith is a year older and what happens if he gets injured? Greg Olsen becomes the #1 receiving threat!?!?
pantherclub
Footballguy
You have a legitimate concern here. Although they did sign Hixon from the Giants a guy that the GM Gentlemen likes a lot. They have a ton of young wr's on the roster that they drafted from the past 3 years. Hopefully, maybe one of those guys step up. Getts was hurt last year but he showed promise in his rookie year. There is always that small chance that Lafell finally plays like a nfl wr but I doubt it. In a nutshell there are wr options on the panthers its just a matter of who steps up.
