Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Just wondering.
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Will ANY of you take Fred Taylor... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Raider Nation
- Start date
trader jake
Footballguy
Why would someone?
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I'll take Fred Taylor after someone reaches for MJD in Round 1/early Round 2.
FT in Rounds 4 or 5 =
FT in Rounds 4 or 5 =
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Precisely why I asked, young Jake.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Who in the world would take MJD in round 1?
Jedimaster21
Footballguy
He will get more carries and rush for more yards. In PPR redraft Jones-Drew is the pick, but in redraft standard scoring a case can be made for Fred (although Drew just has more upside). I wouldn't rely on either as my #1 or #2, but I would have to say I'd pick Drew if I had the choice.
NorrisB
Footballguy
hey his adp is 11Who in the world would take MJD in round 1?
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
This is a really messy situation. Either guy is going to have to fall to me in just the right spot. With Jones back in the fold, Taylor and Jones-Drew may well be holding a cup of Gatorade when the Jags are inside the 5.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
That's crazy talk...
If someone in my league wants to take him in the 1st, I'll send him a thank you card.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Exactly. Where's that Bud Light - Real Men of Genius campaign when you need it?That's crazy talk...If someone in my league wants to take him in the 1st, I'll send him a thank you card.
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renesauz
IBL Representative
Exactly. Where's that Bud Light - Real Men of Genius campaign when you need it?That's crazy talk...
YOUR'E KILLING ME OVER HERE!
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
*lol* You have to be kidding.Solid guys like Maroney and Portis? Bahahahahha.Exactly. Where's that Bud Light - Real Men of Genius campaign when you need it?That's crazy talk...
Less throw out the fact MJD was a top 10 RB in his rookie year.
In Maroney's last 5 games of 2006 (2 he was out with a sore ######)
24 Carries for 135 yards and 2 TDs
Portis was working on new outfits for 2007 during his last 5 games.
So while those SOLID RBs were horribly useless during the FF stretch, MJD put up
5 Games - 76 carries for 487 yards and 7 TDs (and 14 catches). In fact MJD scored a TD in his last 8 games of 2006.
But somehow, Maroney is more solid and proven.
The fact is, if MJD was 6'2, 220 lbs, he's be an unquestionable top 5 pick by the herd. But because he's 5'7, he somehow loses 1/2 his value. Cato June is undersized. Bob Sanders is undersized. Remember them, from the SB? Emmitt Smith was undersized. MJD lit the league on fire, and should have been ROY. The guy comes into the league, scores 15 TDs, dominates anything Maroney did, but MJD is so over hyped.
Maroney is overhyped. 175 carries, 4.3 average, got hurt. Yeah that spells top 10 pick in 2007. I'll take the rookie RB who dominated.
It's hilarious how much rankings would change if you left a guys height and weight out the mix. Do I really have to hear about Greg "3.5ypc, 7 TD in 3 years (MJD did more in 5 games then Jones did in 3 years)" Jones again? Oh the mighty Fred Taylor and Greg Jones. Yeah when the game is on the line, I'm calling in Jones. In a must win game, I'm going to feed Fragile Fred.
OR
Jack is gonna realize his job is on the line, Tice is actually on his staff, and he needs a TD. And it will be MJD he's calling not Greg "roster cut" Jones or Fred "No one wanted me in FA" Taylor. So while Maroney is realizing it's much easier being a backup *cough* Turner *cough*, and Portis "If I only get 150 carries while Betts carries us I might make it through the season healthy" will be getting his 10-12 carries a game, MJD is going to be a top 10 RB again. I thought proven meant you've actually justified the spot you were taken. Maroney's RB29 was so impressive though. Ehh RB9 in your first year, yeah that's okay if you’re a stats guy. But I make my living predicting career years. I'm known as super sleeper guy. Forget picking a guy who's already put up the numbers to justify the spot, I'd rather take RB29, double his numbers, and project him to the top 10. Then take a guy who was top 10, and slash his numbers by 60% because he's obviously too short to the play in the NFL.
And no, I don't own Maroney, Taylor, or MJD in any leagues. And yes you can join my league.
Good rant on the merits of MJD. Guy in my $$ league is keeping Jones_Drew over Willie Parker! Cant say I blame the guy, MJD had tons of TDs and even returns kicks (we get pts for return yardage too!).
OoOBaby said:*lol* You have to be kidding.Solid guys like Maroney and Portis? Bahahahahha.Jeff Pasquino said:Exactly. Where's that Bud Light - Real Men of Genius campaign when you need it?RAIDERNATION said:That's crazy talk...Jeff Pasquino said:WSL ADP- Overall WSL ADPRAIDERNATION said:Who in the world would take MJD in round 1?Jeff Pasquino said:
Less throw out the fact MJD was a top 10 RB in his rookie year.
In Maroney's last 5 games of 2006 (2 he was out with a sore ######)
24 Carries for 135 yards and 2 TDs
Portis was working on new outfits for 2007 during his last 5 games.
So while those SOLID RBs were horribly useless during the FF stretch, MJD put up
5 Games - 76 carries for 487 yards and 7 TDs (and 14 catches). In fact MJD scored a TD in his last 8 games of 2006.
But somehow, Maroney is more solid and proven.
The fact is, if MJD was 6'2, 220 lbs, he's be an unquestionable top 5 pick by the herd. But because he's 5'7, he somehow loses 1/2 his value. Cato June is undersized. Bob Sanders is undersized. Remember them, from the SB? Emmitt Smith was undersized. MJD lit the league on fire, and should have been ROY. The guy comes into the league, scores 15 TDs, dominates anything Maroney did, but MJD is so over hyped.
Maroney is overhyped. 175 carries, 4.3 average, got hurt. Yeah that spells top 10 pick in 2007. I'll take the rookie RB who dominated.
It's hilarious how much rankings would change if you left a guys height and weight out the mix. Do I really have to hear about Greg "3.5ypc, 7 TD in 3 years (MJD did more in 5 games then Jones did in 3 years)" Jones again? Oh the mighty Fred Taylor and Greg Jones. Yeah when the game is on the line, I'm calling in Jones. In a must win game, I'm going to feed Fragile Fred.
OR
Jack is gonna realize his job is on the line, Tice is actually on his staff, and he needs a TD. And it will be MJD he's calling not Greg "roster cut" Jones or Fred "No one wanted me in FA" Taylor. So while Maroney is realizing it's much easier being a backup *cough* Turner *cough*, and Portis "If I only get 150 carries while Betts carries us I might make it through the season healthy" will be getting his 10-12 carries a game, MJD is going to be a top 10 RB again. I thought proven meant you've actually justified the spot you were taken. Maroney's RB29 was so impressive though. Ehh RB9 in your first year, yeah that's okay if you’re a stats guy. But I make my living predicting career years. I'm known as super sleeper guy. Forget picking a guy who's already put up the numbers to justify the spot, I'd rather take RB29, double his numbers, and project him to the top 10. Then take a guy who was top 10, and slash his numbers by 60% because he's obviously too short to the play in the NFL.
And no, I don't own Maroney, Taylor, or MJD in any leagues. And yes you can join my league.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I'm not getting the MJD hate either. Not sure I'd take him in the first round but everyone will be taking Reggie Bush in the first and I don't see their situations as being much different.
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
Their situations aren't much different, sure. They both have a vet sharing carries with them. Unfortunately, thats the only thing similar.Bush >> Jones-DrewSaints Offense >> Jags OffenseSimilar situations barely indicate similar fantasy production and in this case its not really close.
Yenrub
Footballguy
And some how Jones-Drew managed to put up better fantasy numbers
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
For me its not about size, its about two simple things:(1) He had 166 carries last year. I like the guy, but in the first round, you need to take a guy more proven than that. Plenty of times people reach for a guy like this after their first year and its a mistake. How can you guarantee success if you have only had over 15 carries 4 times? over 20 carries 2 times?OoOBaby said:*lol* You have to be kidding.Solid guys like Maroney and Portis? Bahahahahha.Jeff Pasquino said:Exactly. Where's that Bud Light - Real Men of Genius campaign when you need it?RAIDERNATION said:That's crazy talk...Jeff Pasquino said:WSL ADP- Overall WSL ADPRAIDERNATION said:Who in the world would take MJD in round 1?Jeff Pasquino said:If someone in my league wants to take him in the 1st, I'll send him a thank you card.
Less throw out the fact MJD was a top 10 RB in his rookie year.
In Maroney's last 5 games of 2006 (2 he was out with a sore ######)
24 Carries for 135 yards and 2 TDs
Portis was working on new outfits for 2007 during his last 5 games.
So while those SOLID RBs were horribly useless during the FF stretch, MJD put up
5 Games - 76 carries for 487 yards and 7 TDs (and 14 catches). In fact MJD scored a TD in his last 8 games of 2006.
But somehow, Maroney is more solid and proven.
The fact is, if MJD was 6'2, 220 lbs, he's be an unquestionable top 5 pick by the herd. But because he's 5'7, he somehow loses 1/2 his value. Cato June is undersized. Bob Sanders is undersized. Remember them, from the SB? Emmitt Smith was undersized. MJD lit the league on fire, and should have been ROY. The guy comes into the league, scores 15 TDs, dominates anything Maroney did, but MJD is so over hyped.
Maroney is overhyped. 175 carries, 4.3 average, got hurt. Yeah that spells top 10 pick in 2007. I'll take the rookie RB who dominated.
It's hilarious how much rankings would change if you left a guys height and weight out the mix. Do I really have to hear about Greg "3.5ypc, 7 TD in 3 years (MJD did more in 5 games then Jones did in 3 years)" Jones again? Oh the mighty Fred Taylor and Greg Jones. Yeah when the game is on the line, I'm calling in Jones. In a must win game, I'm going to feed Fragile Fred.
OR
Jack is gonna realize his job is on the line, Tice is actually on his staff, and he needs a TD. And it will be MJD he's calling not Greg "roster cut" Jones or Fred "No one wanted me in FA" Taylor. So while Maroney is realizing it's much easier being a backup *cough* Turner *cough*, and Portis "If I only get 150 carries while Betts carries us I might make it through the season healthy" will be getting his 10-12 carries a game, MJD is going to be a top 10 RB again. I thought proven meant you've actually justified the spot you were taken. Maroney's RB29 was so impressive though. Ehh RB9 in your first year, yeah that's okay if you’re a stats guy. But I make my living predicting career years. I'm known as super sleeper guy. Forget picking a guy who's already put up the numbers to justify the spot, I'd rather take RB29, double his numbers, and project him to the top 10. Then take a guy who was top 10, and slash his numbers by 60% because he's obviously too short to the play in the NFL.
And no, I don't own Maroney, Taylor, or MJD in any leagues. And yes you can join my league.
(2) Not only will he split time with one more guy this year, but he seems absolutely fine with that. Hes said repeatedly that hes fine with Taylor getting the ball, Greg Jones, etc. Nice guy, but that cuts in his carries and value as a fantasy RB.
He has potential to be a great player this year and in the future, but right now its not as much of a lock as many other players.
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
My eyes must be off then because I watched both quite a bit and I thought Drew looked as good if not better than Bush.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
The first round really thins out after the first 8-9 guys. If you want to go RB and LT, LJ, SJax, Portis, Alexander, Westbrook, Parker, Gore and maybe Ronnie are gone who do you go with? Maroney, Addai, Benson and Bush aren't any more proven then Drew is. For me atleast Drew proved than he can do more with less. Sure he only had 166 carries but he was the 8th scoring RB in only 14 games.For me its not about size, its about two simple things:(1) He had 166 carries last year. I like the guy, but in the first round, you need to take a guy more proven than that. Plenty of times people reach for a guy like this after their first year and its a mistake. How can you guarantee success if you have only had over 15 carries 4 times? over 20 carries 2 times?OoOBaby said:*lol* You have to be kidding.Solid guys like Maroney and Portis? Bahahahahha.Jeff Pasquino said:Exactly. Where's that Bud Light - Real Men of Genius campaign when you need it?RAIDERNATION said:That's crazy talk...Jeff Pasquino said:WSL ADP- Overall WSL ADPRAIDERNATION said:Who in the world would take MJD in round 1?Jeff Pasquino said:
Less throw out the fact MJD was a top 10 RB in his rookie year.
In Maroney's last 5 games of 2006 (2 he was out with a sore ######)
24 Carries for 135 yards and 2 TDs
Portis was working on new outfits for 2007 during his last 5 games.
So while those SOLID RBs were horribly useless during the FF stretch, MJD put up
5 Games - 76 carries for 487 yards and 7 TDs (and 14 catches). In fact MJD scored a TD in his last 8 games of 2006.
But somehow, Maroney is more solid and proven.
The fact is, if MJD was 6'2, 220 lbs, he's be an unquestionable top 5 pick by the herd. But because he's 5'7, he somehow loses 1/2 his value. Cato June is undersized. Bob Sanders is undersized. Remember them, from the SB? Emmitt Smith was undersized. MJD lit the league on fire, and should have been ROY. The guy comes into the league, scores 15 TDs, dominates anything Maroney did, but MJD is so over hyped.
Maroney is overhyped. 175 carries, 4.3 average, got hurt. Yeah that spells top 10 pick in 2007. I'll take the rookie RB who dominated.
It's hilarious how much rankings would change if you left a guys height and weight out the mix. Do I really have to hear about Greg "3.5ypc, 7 TD in 3 years (MJD did more in 5 games then Jones did in 3 years)" Jones again? Oh the mighty Fred Taylor and Greg Jones. Yeah when the game is on the line, I'm calling in Jones. In a must win game, I'm going to feed Fragile Fred.
OR
Jack is gonna realize his job is on the line, Tice is actually on his staff, and he needs a TD. And it will be MJD he's calling not Greg "roster cut" Jones or Fred "No one wanted me in FA" Taylor. So while Maroney is realizing it's much easier being a backup *cough* Turner *cough*, and Portis "If I only get 150 carries while Betts carries us I might make it through the season healthy" will be getting his 10-12 carries a game, MJD is going to be a top 10 RB again. I thought proven meant you've actually justified the spot you were taken. Maroney's RB29 was so impressive though. Ehh RB9 in your first year, yeah that's okay if you’re a stats guy. But I make my living predicting career years. I'm known as super sleeper guy. Forget picking a guy who's already put up the numbers to justify the spot, I'd rather take RB29, double his numbers, and project him to the top 10. Then take a guy who was top 10, and slash his numbers by 60% because he's obviously too short to the play in the NFL.
And no, I don't own Maroney, Taylor, or MJD in any leagues. And yes you can join my league.
(2) Not only will he split time with one more guy this year, but he seems absolutely fine with that. Hes said repeatedly that hes fine with Taylor getting the ball, Greg Jones, etc. Nice guy, but that cuts in his carries and value as a fantasy RB.
He has potential to be a great player this year and in the future, but right now its not as much of a lock as many other players.
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Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I like MJD, seriously.
I drafted him last year in several leagues at about rookie #10, and I reaped the benefits.
However, in a redraft situation, he's going to go late in the first or early in the second round.
That's a lot of risk to take on from your first pick.
Who else, do you say, would you take?
Well, let's look at the Top 20 RBs (assuming you're going that direction):
LT2
LJ
SJax
SA
Gore
Westbrook
Maroney
Bush
Portis
FWP
Addai
Ronnie Brown
Rudi
That's 13 roughly in order and broken by groups of 5 (not tiers). All of these guys have a strong case at first round selection.
Now consider:
Cedric Benson in Chicago
Travis Henry in Denver
Willis McGahee in Baltimore
MJD
Caddy
Edge
Jamal Lewis
LenDale White
and that's before rookies go to GB, Buffalo, and several other places. Does MJD warrant consideration in this group? Absolutely.
For a guy that has to share touches, it is tough for me to pick him in Round 1 when I want to (A) keep risk down and (B) depend on this pick all year long. Bush and MJD are worthy of consideration only in PPR leagues, and they certainly carry risk with them as neither is the primary back. All the others are.
I drafted him last year in several leagues at about rookie #10, and I reaped the benefits.
However, in a redraft situation, he's going to go late in the first or early in the second round.
That's a lot of risk to take on from your first pick.
Who else, do you say, would you take?
Well, let's look at the Top 20 RBs (assuming you're going that direction):
LT2
LJ
SJax
SA
Gore
Westbrook
Maroney
Bush
Portis
FWP
Addai
Ronnie Brown
Rudi
That's 13 roughly in order and broken by groups of 5 (not tiers). All of these guys have a strong case at first round selection.
Now consider:
Cedric Benson in Chicago
Travis Henry in Denver
Willis McGahee in Baltimore
MJD
Caddy
Edge
Jamal Lewis
LenDale White
and that's before rookies go to GB, Buffalo, and several other places. Does MJD warrant consideration in this group? Absolutely.
For a guy that has to share touches, it is tough for me to pick him in Round 1 when I want to (A) keep risk down and (B) depend on this pick all year long. Bush and MJD are worthy of consideration only in PPR leagues, and they certainly carry risk with them as neither is the primary back. All the others are.
I understand why you wouldn't take him in the first, but it's hardly a bad pick.
I still maintain his size is hurting his draft stock. Listen if AP splits time with Lewis, gets 160 carries, gets 15 TDs, (and Lewis is still starting in 08, as Fred Taylor is), you really think AP wouldn't be a top 5 pick the next year? People would be projecting 20 tds the next year.
Here's my main gripes
1) Greg Jones is a poor mans Duckett, without all the TDs. When they line up Jones and MJD for 10 goal line carries each, MJD is going to come out ahead every time. I don't even see Jones stealing much GL work at all. MJD is just better, simple as that.
2) 160 ish carries, and we're not expecting it to go up? He carried JAX. Insanely productive rookie year. People are projecting (Jeff is in this group I believe) Deangelo Williams to start, or at least get far more carries this year. Why? MJD did 50x what Williams did, but we're not projecting MJD to get more carries? The JAX offense started, and ended with MJD. Fred Taylor would start for maybe 2 teams in this league. Greg Jones might be the primary backup for 2-3 teams at most. Taylor is going down hill, and Jones can't get up a hill. If I owned MJD, I wouldn't be worried about either.
3) Look at MJDs last 5 games. 15 carries a game, that's 240 for the year. Which is about where I see him ending. There is just no way JAX keeps this guy off the field, he was the only play maker on offense. Jack is gonna ride this kid hard. MJD will get more carries, as we saw the trend develop during 2006.
So MJDs touches are going to go up. He's the biggest offensive weapon on the team. He was already RB8 on limited touches. So somehow we're going to slash his projections? More touches, less FF points for MJD?
Really? Give the guy 100 more touches, and he's going to fall to RB14-15? The only way I can see it, people are doubting him because of his size. As I said, if AP puts up MJD numbers this year, people will be taking him top 3 in dynasty leagues, and top 5 in redraft, even if Lewis is coming back. Part of it is draft position, part of it is size. People just don't think MJD can stay healthy, when Maroney is the guy who got hurt.
I mean 15 TDs? Rookie year? Shoulda been ROY? And he's going to lose carries to Greg Jones. Dear God. I'm about to take an ice pick to my face. There is just no way you project MJD for less then 200 carries, so then to drop him to RB13-15, you're going to slash his YPC from 5.7 to 4.1, drop his 46 catches to 30, drop his TDs to 8 from 15. And now we have RB14. I mean really?
But for Maroney, we're going to double his TDs, and have him healthy all year. Why? He's bigger. If the Pats bring in a RB, no one will be saying "ooOOoo He's going to steal Maroney's touches". But with MJD, everyone is coming to eat off his plate. Greg Jones. If I hear anything more about Greg Jones I'm going to punch someone in the neck. I can't wait for the Pats to sign Lee Suggs, so I can go drop Maroney to RB18 because of the Suggs impact. Or lets drop Portis to RB23 because of the infamous Duckett signing.
MJD was > Maroney last year.
MJD was > Addai last year.
MJD was > Rudi last year.
MJD was > Brown last year.
MJD was > Bush last year.
Yet Addai is going to get more carries, Maroney is going to get more carries, Brown is going to reach his hype, Bush is actually going to run the ball between the tackles, but MJD. Oh, Greg Jones is going to cut into his production big time. MJD will be lucky to get 150 carries.
Eh? Come again? I don't want to hear about people jumping Bush/Maroney/Brown's projections by 20-30% over last year, and then slashing MJDs by 30%. Because that's the only way any of those guys finish ahead of MJD this year.
MJD scored a TD in his last 8 games. The guy was on fire. His carries went up all year long. He's about to go double digit TDs again, 1,000 yards, 55 catches, and he still won't be a top 10 pick in 2008. Vince Young should be a man, send the ROY trophy to MJD, and pay him for the time it was at his house.
I still maintain his size is hurting his draft stock. Listen if AP splits time with Lewis, gets 160 carries, gets 15 TDs, (and Lewis is still starting in 08, as Fred Taylor is), you really think AP wouldn't be a top 5 pick the next year? People would be projecting 20 tds the next year.
Here's my main gripes
1) Greg Jones is a poor mans Duckett, without all the TDs. When they line up Jones and MJD for 10 goal line carries each, MJD is going to come out ahead every time. I don't even see Jones stealing much GL work at all. MJD is just better, simple as that.
2) 160 ish carries, and we're not expecting it to go up? He carried JAX. Insanely productive rookie year. People are projecting (Jeff is in this group I believe) Deangelo Williams to start, or at least get far more carries this year. Why? MJD did 50x what Williams did, but we're not projecting MJD to get more carries? The JAX offense started, and ended with MJD. Fred Taylor would start for maybe 2 teams in this league. Greg Jones might be the primary backup for 2-3 teams at most. Taylor is going down hill, and Jones can't get up a hill. If I owned MJD, I wouldn't be worried about either.
3) Look at MJDs last 5 games. 15 carries a game, that's 240 for the year. Which is about where I see him ending. There is just no way JAX keeps this guy off the field, he was the only play maker on offense. Jack is gonna ride this kid hard. MJD will get more carries, as we saw the trend develop during 2006.
So MJDs touches are going to go up. He's the biggest offensive weapon on the team. He was already RB8 on limited touches. So somehow we're going to slash his projections? More touches, less FF points for MJD?
Really? Give the guy 100 more touches, and he's going to fall to RB14-15? The only way I can see it, people are doubting him because of his size. As I said, if AP puts up MJD numbers this year, people will be taking him top 3 in dynasty leagues, and top 5 in redraft, even if Lewis is coming back. Part of it is draft position, part of it is size. People just don't think MJD can stay healthy, when Maroney is the guy who got hurt.
I mean 15 TDs? Rookie year? Shoulda been ROY? And he's going to lose carries to Greg Jones. Dear God. I'm about to take an ice pick to my face. There is just no way you project MJD for less then 200 carries, so then to drop him to RB13-15, you're going to slash his YPC from 5.7 to 4.1, drop his 46 catches to 30, drop his TDs to 8 from 15. And now we have RB14. I mean really?
But for Maroney, we're going to double his TDs, and have him healthy all year. Why? He's bigger. If the Pats bring in a RB, no one will be saying "ooOOoo He's going to steal Maroney's touches". But with MJD, everyone is coming to eat off his plate. Greg Jones. If I hear anything more about Greg Jones I'm going to punch someone in the neck. I can't wait for the Pats to sign Lee Suggs, so I can go drop Maroney to RB18 because of the Suggs impact. Or lets drop Portis to RB23 because of the infamous Duckett signing.
MJD was > Maroney last year.
MJD was > Addai last year.
MJD was > Rudi last year.
MJD was > Brown last year.
MJD was > Bush last year.
Yet Addai is going to get more carries, Maroney is going to get more carries, Brown is going to reach his hype, Bush is actually going to run the ball between the tackles, but MJD. Oh, Greg Jones is going to cut into his production big time. MJD will be lucky to get 150 carries.
Eh? Come again? I don't want to hear about people jumping Bush/Maroney/Brown's projections by 20-30% over last year, and then slashing MJDs by 30%. Because that's the only way any of those guys finish ahead of MJD this year.
MJD scored a TD in his last 8 games. The guy was on fire. His carries went up all year long. He's about to go double digit TDs again, 1,000 yards, 55 catches, and he still won't be a top 10 pick in 2008. Vince Young should be a man, send the ROY trophy to MJD, and pay him for the time it was at his house.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Dude, we hear what you're saying. Your points are well-reasoned and well-explained, but most people don't agree with you. That backfield reeks of "Denver-ish" instability, providing fantasy nightmares. Good luck though, if you take him. You may well end up saying "I told you so."
Are you drunk? MJD averaged 15 carries a game the last 5 games. Benson? *lol* Henry? Caddy? Oh dear god. Edge. *lol* Carries doesn't = production. MJD = production. Greg Jones is going to steal all the carries away from MJD. That's classic.RAIDERNATION said:
Jeff has DeW ranked higher then MJD in Dynasty rankings. Why? Why is DeW going to explode, but MJD will struggle to get carries. Foster isn't going anywhere. When Foster came back, DeWs carries went DOWN. MJDs carries went up all year.
MJD killed DeW last year. It wasn't even close. But somehow, DeW is going to get 300 carries. And MJD, ehhh, maybe the same, that Greg Jones guy is a beast. Oh please.
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Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Joined when?
jwb
Footballguy
Funny how height and weight never get brought up when talking about Westbrook. Or Tiki Barber. I totally agree with you. In another thread, where there was some Leon Washington hate partly due to size, I pointed out that Leon is about the same size as Westbrook and Tiki Barber (a bit shorter than Tiki.) He also had a better season than D Williams (who will likley be drafted about 6 rounds higher) and had almost as good a year as Maroney. Yes, he'll be used differently, for this year at least. The height thing is getting silly. It matters on a receiver like Plax. It matters (somewhat) on a QB like Flutie. I don't think it matters all that much with a RB. Great RB's have been all different sizes. This hype thing is crazy, too. I like potential probably more than the next guy, but give me potential like Addai (who played all year, and after a slow start, really came on) over Maroney (who did very little to earn him the first round status he's been annointed.)OoOBaby said:
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
Love MJD much? Listen, he's in a group of 3 people, and theres absolutely no guarantee that he will get a good % of those carries. Coaches haven't said anything. The only thing we've heard is MJD talking about how hes glad to be part of a RBBC. Even if he does get a very high % of carries, just look at what happened to tatum after he went from low % of carries to big %. Production when carry numbers are small doesn't equal production when carry numbers are large. If you're not consistently getting the rock, you don't put up consistent stats. Plain and simple. This is why MJD does not warrant a pick over many accomplished players.I'm sure JAX loves him, and I'm sure JAX fans love him. He has a role there, and currently its not a 20+ carry guy. That could change, however, it seems JAX is happy with it being in a smaller or split role. JAX doesn't care about fantasy points. They'll keep him in that role if thats where he helps the team the most. Could he still put up fantasy points? Sure, but again, this will not be consistent.
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Liquid Tension
Footballguy
Should we be worried that the sore ###### may be a nagging inury for Maroney?OoOBaby said:*lol* You have to be kidding.Solid guys like Maroney and Portis? Bahahahahha.Jeff Pasquino said:Exactly. Where's that Bud Light - Real Men of Genius campaign when you need it?RAIDERNATION said:That's crazy talk...Jeff Pasquino said:WSL ADP- Overall WSL ADPRAIDERNATION said:Who in the world would take MJD in round 1?Jeff Pasquino said:
Less throw out the fact MJD was a top 10 RB in his rookie year.
In Maroney's last 5 games of 2006 (2 he was out with a sore ######)
24 Carries for 135 yards and 2 TDs
Portis was working on new outfits for 2007 during his last 5 games.
So while those SOLID RBs were horribly useless during the FF stretch, MJD put up
5 Games - 76 carries for 487 yards and 7 TDs (and 14 catches). In fact MJD scored a TD in his last 8 games of 2006.
But somehow, Maroney is more solid and proven.
The fact is, if MJD was 6'2, 220 lbs, he's be an unquestionable top 5 pick by the herd. But because he's 5'7, he somehow loses 1/2 his value. Cato June is undersized. Bob Sanders is undersized. Remember them, from the SB? Emmitt Smith was undersized. MJD lit the league on fire, and should have been ROY. The guy comes into the league, scores 15 TDs, dominates anything Maroney did, but MJD is so over hyped.
Maroney is overhyped. 175 carries, 4.3 average, got hurt. Yeah that spells top 10 pick in 2007. I'll take the rookie RB who dominated.
It's hilarious how much rankings would change if you left a guys height and weight out the mix. Do I really have to hear about Greg "3.5ypc, 7 TD in 3 years (MJD did more in 5 games then Jones did in 3 years)" Jones again? Oh the mighty Fred Taylor and Greg Jones. Yeah when the game is on the line, I'm calling in Jones. In a must win game, I'm going to feed Fragile Fred.
OR
Jack is gonna realize his job is on the line, Tice is actually on his staff, and he needs a TD. And it will be MJD he's calling not Greg "roster cut" Jones or Fred "No one wanted me in FA" Taylor. So while Maroney is realizing it's much easier being a backup *cough* Turner *cough*, and Portis "If I only get 150 carries while Betts carries us I might make it through the season healthy" will be getting his 10-12 carries a game, MJD is going to be a top 10 RB again. I thought proven meant you've actually justified the spot you were taken. Maroney's RB29 was so impressive though. Ehh RB9 in your first year, yeah that's okay if you’re a stats guy. But I make my living predicting career years. I'm known as super sleeper guy. Forget picking a guy who's already put up the numbers to justify the spot, I'd rather take RB29, double his numbers, and project him to the top 10. Then take a guy who was top 10, and slash his numbers by 60% because he's obviously too short to the play in the NFL.
And no, I don't own Maroney, Taylor, or MJD in any leagues. And yes you can join my league.
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Liquid Tension
Footballguy
I don't really disagree with what you are saying with two exceptions. Think about what People were saying about Caddy after his rookie year. Point is that it was a rookie year and teams get tape and make adjustments. Maybe people did not plan for MJD and were really surprised by his talents? Also, now with a full year of tape maybe teams adjust in the way they approach him. Maybe teams "know" he always goes to his left when in a one on one situation I (just an example). The 2nd reason is that it is very possible that his TD's could go down as TD's are the hardest thing to project. Jones is a good TD guy regardless of what you think so maybe he takes some away from MJD? Having a healthy Leftwich could also take some td's away as the option was less inviting with Garrard at the helm?1) Teams will adjust to MJD 2) TD's are hard to predict year to year and MJD's TD's really helped his numbers.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I don't see Greg Jones as a threat to take all that much work from either Taylor or MJD, really. He filled in adequately when Taylor was banged up in 2005, but nothing I saw made him really jump out at me. Just because he's bigger doesn't mean he's better at the goal line or anywhere else. How many TDs did TJ duckett steal from Portis and Betts last year? The talent disparity in JAX is just as glaring. MJD and Taylor are just flat out better players, IMO, and I don't care where on the field the Jags' offense is.
The JAX RBs had about 600 total touches and scored 23 total TDs last year, and the lions' share of those touches and TDs will go to MJD and Taylor. If MJD's touches go up, then of course his insane level of productivity on a per touch basis will go down, but he'll still be a very solid fantasy RB. I see no reason why he won't get 250 carries, 50 catches, and 10 or so TDs, even if everyone stays healthy. If Taylor goes down, his upside goes through the roof, too, IMO. He could also end up with a majority of the touches just simply because he outplays the other two guys.
Bottom line: there is plenty to go around in Jacksonville, and from what I have seen, MJD is the best RB there. He merits strong consideration toward the end of round one (10 - 12 team leagues). If he slides into round two I think that he'll be a steal.
The JAX RBs had about 600 total touches and scored 23 total TDs last year, and the lions' share of those touches and TDs will go to MJD and Taylor. If MJD's touches go up, then of course his insane level of productivity on a per touch basis will go down, but he'll still be a very solid fantasy RB. I see no reason why he won't get 250 carries, 50 catches, and 10 or so TDs, even if everyone stays healthy. If Taylor goes down, his upside goes through the roof, too, IMO. He could also end up with a majority of the touches just simply because he outplays the other two guys.
Bottom line: there is plenty to go around in Jacksonville, and from what I have seen, MJD is the best RB there. He merits strong consideration toward the end of round one (10 - 12 team leagues). If he slides into round two I think that he'll be a steal.
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I've outlined all the warning signs why MJD will have trouble repeating his 2006 performance IF he does not get a lot more touches. As it stands now, I do not see him getting a huge workload, so his moster YPC from last year should go way down and his TD total should also see a precipitous drop off. Long story short, those two stats were off the chart last year and you can count the number of times those were repeated the following year on maybe one finger. And that might be too high.
The Football Freak
Footballguy
MJD ??? Bush - this needs to play out for another year or two.Jags offensive line>>>>Saints offensive lineAnd some how Jones-Drew managed to put up better fantasy numbers
I don't understand why people are sleeping on MJD. If you break down his numbers you see how studly he is, and if you watch him play and watch him bull the pile at 5'6" and 212, you would see he has a good deal of potential to be a special player. He can catch, he can juke and cut, and he can run right at you and push for yards. I watched every play of his last year and he sure seemed like a complete player to me.
Greg Jones had potential, but after a his knee injuries, I don't know if he will have the explosion to be anthing other than a FB. Even with Taylor in full time, MJD put up great stats, and when Taylor was out MJD put up stellar stats. The Jags have been improving the o-line even further through FA (RT from Ravens), and I think they will run a LOT next year. MJD will put up top ten numbers easliy, and in my mind he has potential to be top 5.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I think it's a pretty safe projection that Drew will get 200 carries next year with 50 receptions. I think that equates to around 1400 total yards with 10 Tds on the ground and 1-2 receiving. In a ppr league, I'm projecting him at around 260 points. Worth a late first- early second pick IMO.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Jones had the highest YPC average of any RB with 13+ rushing TDs since Jim Brown in 1958.
duaneok66
Footballguy
oobaby, you're missing the point on Drew. You have to take height and weight into account because JAX did . . . if they thought MJD was capable of carrying the full load, then why do you resign an aging injury prone Fred Taylor??
I don't even like Maroney, but in FF 2007, Maroney > MJD . . .
I don't even like Maroney, but in FF 2007, Maroney > MJD . . .
duaneok66
Footballguy
TDs are hard to predict, especially with only one year of data . . .
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Additionally, only three players (four times) have had as high a YPC average as MJD with 7 or more rushing TDs: Simpson, SandersX2 and Mercury Morris.
SSOG
Moderator
According to Football Outsiders, MJD was the 4th best RB in the league on a per-play basis last year. Bush was 34th.According to FO, MJD was the 10th best receiving RB in the league on a per-play basis last year. Bush was 28th.According to FO, Jacksonville's kickoff return unit was 5th-best in the league, worth 7.2 points over average. New Orlean's punt return unit was 19th-best in the league, worth 1.9 points BELOW average.In other words, MJD was a better rusher, better receiver, and better returner than Reggie Bush... but in Bush's defense, he sure does make one hell of a decoy! New Orleans is at its absolute best when they're not giving Bush the ball!
Cowboys#1
Footballguy
i am a big MJD fan but i cant see taking him any earlier than 2.6 id like to pair him up with a guy like parker or rudi and have 1 solid guy and 1 homerun hitter.. i like the fact that people question MJD because if you saw him play you would really second guess the opinion that Fred Taylor or Greg Jones will have a big impact next year.
Remember MJD did what he did last year in 15 games, I dont think he had any offensive touches in the 1st 2 games (though i maybe wrong.. going on memory)
Remember MJD did what he did last year in 15 games, I dont think he had any offensive touches in the 1st 2 games (though i maybe wrong.. going on memory)
streamkeeper
Footballguy
I am one of the many that have to make a keeper decision about MJD. I will spare you the details. Great thread. Thanks.
I think he is worth the risk considering at time he has looked like he could be something special.
I think he is worth the risk considering at time he has looked like he could be something special.
SSOG
Moderator
Also, slightly off-topic, but MJD has to be the greatest initial-based nickname ever. LT, LT2, AP/AD, SoD, LJ (both of them), S-Jax, etc are all very nice nicknames, but something about MJD just strikes me as especially cool.
Maybe it's the fact that I always think it stands for Miller Jenuine Draft.
Maybe it's the fact that I always think it stands for Miller Jenuine Draft.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
That's a no-brainer if you keep >1.The question is his ADP for redraft in 2007.The signing of Fred Taylor and a hope for a better passing game (quick, name a stud WR in Jax.....time's up) could keep MJD down.I have no issue at all with MJD going forward as to him holding long term value - but the Top 12 picks is too rich for me.It's a risky pick that very well could pay off if you grab him, but I'd be hoping for someone else. Granted it becomes a tough pick for late first round, which is where this decision is likely to be (if you have MJD above 7th, there's an issue). If you have Pick 1.10 or 1.11, I could see taking MJD at 10 or 11 if you're going RB in the second round and believe the next 3-5 RBs are about equal. That would be a good case for taking MJD in Round 1. I'm far more likely to steer towards a true feature back if at all possible.This much is for sure - there is (A) a ton of "2nd/3rd tier" RBs this year, and (B) the back ends of Round 1 will be very interesting this year.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Back to the original topic.....
Fred Taylor's going to be a huge value, much like Deuce McAllister was last year.
Veteran RBs on teams with new rookie RBs that run complicated offenses are solid values. That isn't FredT/MJD, but it does say what to look for if you can find it (it found me Deuce all last year).
Fred Taylor's going to be a huge value, much like Deuce McAllister was last year.
Veteran RBs on teams with new rookie RBs that run complicated offenses are solid values. That isn't FredT/MJD, but it does say what to look for if you can find it (it found me Deuce all last year).
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I agree that he won't maintain his 5.7 YPC, and he likely won't scores every 14 touches, either. I see no reason, however, that he won't see additional touches in 2007. The presence of Fred Taylor will likely prevent MJD from being a 350+ touch "true feature back," of course, but given his performance last year, the Jags would be insane not to get him the rock a bit more.Is 225 carries and 50 catches realistic? I think so, and with that number of touches he should be near 1500 total yards. The TDs will be more difficult to predict, but Taylor hasn't really been a TD threat, scoring 6, 2, and 5 times during his last three healthy years (2003, 2004, 2006). As stated above, I just don't see Greg Jones as much of a threat anywhere on the field, so MJD should see goal line work; how much is open to interpretation. I feel relatively confident projecting him (at this early date, anyway) in the neighborhood of 10 TDs.I feel comfortable drafting 1500/10 around the round 1/2 turn in normal sized leagues, particularly considering the upside there if something happens to Fred Taylor. I don't buy the "too small to be a workhorse" theory at all. MJD is short, yes, but he isn't small in any sense of the word. Guy looks like a bowling ball with legs out there.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
MJD had 166-941-5.7-13 with 46-436-2 last year. Off the cuff I might guess 200-880-4.4-7 and 50-400-1 this year. So total fantasy points dropping from 228 to 176. Last year that would have ranked 18th (which is where Fred Taylor ranked).IMO, it's tough to really rank exceedingly high in a true RBBC UNLESS there are off-the-chart perfromances like MJD had last year. I'm not saying that it's impossible, just statistically it has not happened very often. MJD was one of only four RBs since 1970 that had 225 fantasy points on fewer than 225 touches (along with James Brooks in 88, Icky Woods in 88, and Lionel James in 85.)
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
4.4 is a really low YPC considering both he and Taylor were above 5.0 last year. I could see him dropping off to the high 4.XX but the nice thing about a RBBC is the YPC is usually a little higher than if he were the workhorse. A 15 to 8 drop in TDs may happen but that seems on the low side as well unless you think they'll pull him at the goalline, which seems improbable to me since that's one of his greatest strengths.
