Will Peyton Break the TD record? (1 Viewer)

[cstu]

back on topic - I don't think Manning sniffs the TD record. This offense is attempting to transform into ball-control, ground-game, in preparation for playoff football. The passing attack will come back as needed, but I think the Broncos now want to win on the ground.

He'll still come close

I think he needs 3 TD's against the Chiefs or it's not going to happen without a 5+ TD game down the road. The Titans have only given up 8 TD's on the year so it's unlikely he gets more than a couple against them.

If he needs 10 TD's with three games to go against the Chargers, Texans and Raiders he has a shot even if they focus on the ground game.

It could come down to the Raiders game and how much he really wants to break the record.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Anyone who says Manning had a good game last night has no credibility.

I don't know of anyone saying any such thing.

Not you, but a few people in here are. I actually like your take on it.

 

[moleculo]

back on topic - I don't think Manning sniffs the TD record. This offense is attempting to transform into ball-control, ground-game, in preparation for playoff football. The passing attack will come back as needed, but I think the Broncos now want to win on the ground.

He'll still come close

I think he needs 3 TD's against the Chiefs or it's not going to happen without a 5+ TD game down the road. The Titans have only given up 8 TD's on the year so it's unlikely he gets more than a couple against them.

If he needs 10 TD's with three games to go against the Chargers, Texans and Raiders he has a shot even if they focus on the ground game.

It could come down to the Raiders game and how much he really wants to break the record.

He might have to get that in KC, depending on the health of Moreno.

Beyond this week, I think Broncos use the last 4 games as a tune-up for playoffs - that is, figure out what you have to do better to win in January and focus on that. We know the passing game is fine, we don't really know if the running game can be counted on beyond Moreno.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Heat turned up and old choker is back!

Not sure how that qualifies as choking. Manning played really poorly last night, but his performance late in the game was *WAY* better than his performance early in the game. His last four drives were a game-tying TD in the 4th quarter, a failed drive at the end of the 4th quarter, and then a pair of overtime drives that crossed midfield. The first overtime drive ended when an offensive pass interference penalty took Denver from an easy 4th-and-inches to a tough 3rd-and-14. The second overtime drive ended with Welker dropping an easy conversion on 3rd-and-8 to get Denver into field goal range.

I know that "choking" is really shorthand that means whatever makes Peyton look worst, but isn't playing your best football late in a 1-score game sort of the opposite of choking? The criticism of Peyton Manning last night should be that he sucked, not that he choked.

The criticism of Manning last night is, and should be, that he took the bait and audibled to run after run, getting Moreno killed by giving him a ridiculous 37 carries in the frigid cold because he was scared to throw the ball. Manning could have put that game away. Or at least, he could have chosen to take the risk. But just like his record setting year in 2004, when he led his team to just three points in the AFCCG, when Manning gets to Foxboro, he doesn't play like himself. The issue last night isn't Manning's bad throws - although the interception hat was called back by penalty would have ended the game. The issue was that he didn't even try to throw the ball. The wind conditions might not have been ideal, but Brady threw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs while Manning called Moreno's number and prayed for the clock to run faster. He didn't want the ball because he was afraid that he would lose the game. And that lost them the game, and possibly Knowshon Moreno.

Oh, I get it. Denver ran 48 times for 280 yards (vs. 36 passes), and this proves that Peyton Manning is a bad QB because he was afraid to throw. And last year, New England ran 54 times for 254 yards against Denver (vs. 31 passes), and that proved that Tom Brady was a good QB because he knew to stick with the run when it was working.

#logic

Yes, in 2012, the patriots ran the ball 54 times. 4 of those were brady, including a td run, but you're right. I was there, it was a nice fall day, and ridley got 28 carries - not 37 in the freezing cold. Bolden and woodhead shared the load, just like ball and cj anderson v except bolden and woodhead combined for 21 carries. Anderson and ball combined for 10. They drove moreno into the ground last night, largely on mannings decisions at the line of scimmage.But while they were doing that, they were actually running and passing. In fact, the patriots scored 24 straight points to go up 31 to 7, and manning tried to rally, but came up well short. My issue isn't with the run/pass ratio. Its that manning had 71 yards on the day partway through the fourth quarter. He wasn't leading an offense, he was trying to run the clock out, starting in the first quarter. Those are totally different things.

I know you watch the games, so your snarky response seems a bit disingenuous. Do you really not understand why there's a difference between how those two games played out?

No, I really don't think there's a difference. Both times, the team with the lead was absolutely dominating with the running game, and saw no need to stray too far away from it. You want to criticise Manning for giving Moreno too many carries, then I think you're just looking for reasons to bash him (see also: motivated reasoning). Yes, Peyton Manning has a lot of control over whether the call is a pass or a run. Peyton Manning doesn't control who is on the field with him, though. The coaches on the sidelines dictate the personnel in the game. It's hard for Peyton Manning to decide to hand off to Montee Ball when Montee Ball is sitting on the bench. And further, it's not Peyton's job to count Moreno's carries or check his health. Denver has offensive coaches, and those offensive coaches do the exact same thing in Denver as they do everywhere else. It's THEIR job to decide what personnel to go with. It's THEIR job to watch the players and keep them healthy. Manning's job is to move the offense as best he can with the personnel he has on the field. Denver ran for 280 yards on the day. I'd say Manning was pretty justified in continuing to go back to that well.

If Peyton Manning chucked the ball all day long on a day his RBs were averaging over 6 yards per carry and looked unstoppable, people would pile on him for being a glory boy who only cared about his stats. If Peyton Manning keeps handing off all day long on a day his RBs were averaging over 6 yards per carry and looked unstoppable, people call him gutless and suggest he didn't want the game in his hands when it really mattered. And despite this, the next time Manning has a big passing game I *GUARANTEE YOU* people will come out of the woodwork to call him a glory boy who just cares about his stats again. This is exactly the kind of double standard that makes it so hard to discuss Peyton Manning. Whatever he does is wrong, but only when he does it.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

In last night's game, both teams had:

• two long TD drives (70 & 80 for NE, 65 & 80 for Denver)
• one TD coming off of a short field caused by a RB bumble (fumble returned for TD by Miller, 32 yard drive after the Ball fumble)
• one TD coming off of the opposing QB's turnover (Brady's sack led to 10 yard drive by Broncos, Mannings int led to 32 yard drive by NE)
• one FG on 34-35 yard drives
• 3 total turnovers (not counting the meaningless Holliday muff with 0:05 left in 1st half as this was essentially meaningless)
• two punts in OT
• key personnel being injured, allowing opposing offense to pick on a particular area of weakness (i.e. no Mayo/Wilfork = run it up the gut. No DRC = throw at the rookie)

Statistically, the two QB's were pretty different, but in terms of overall offensive production, they were quite similar. The difference in the game came down to a special teams error in the waning minutes of OT.

think you forgot that defensive td that both teams had

 

[FreeBaGeL]

1) I don't blame Manning for putting Moreno in over Anderson and Ball. That's on the (interim) head coach. But Manning made the decision, repeatedly, to run the ball, not pass it. It's really that simple. He chose again and again to run, because he would rather have a run play against a pass defense than pass against the pass defense. That's what he does. It's what the Patriots wanted him to do. And it let them get back into the game. I don't know if you're disputing any of these things, but there isn't much room for argument. There have been articles posted about Manning's tendency to do this long before this game. Moreno had a career high in carries. And at least one Patriots player said that that was their game plan. They took Manning out of the game by letting him take himself out of the game, and Manning obliged.

2) I never said Manning choked, and in fact specifically said that he didn't. He even led a game tying drive. But his decision to run the clock out starting in the first half cost him an opportunity to put the game out of reach. I think it's reasonable to criticize him for getting 24 early points and then being content to run run run run and maybe pass on third down.

I don't really disagree with you here. Even coming into this game I actually have said that the Broncos run too much this year (most of the drives they fail to score on come in series where they go run, run, incomplete, punt). In fact, if you look back at the game thread when the Broncos were up big I made multiple posts criticizing them for running too much, saying that they were wasting possessions (especially with the wind at their back) that they were probably going to wish they had back later.

That said, here I was primarily responding to your point that somehow it was OK for Brady to waste possessions running with a lead in the past because he was doing it with multiple running backs whereas Peyton's decision was a bad one because he was only given the option to do it with one guy. It's typical of these two quarterbacks to be compared based on the results of players they have nothing to do with. Brady's running backs didn't fumble so it was a good decision to give them the ball. Peyton's running backs did fumble so it was a bad decision to give it to them. Same decision made by the quarterbacks, different results that are totally out of the quarterback's hands, different perspective on the quarterbacks themselves.

3) Brady was unstoppable until the game was on the line? Are you kidding? The game wasn't on the line when it was 24-0? Or 24-7? Or 24-14? Or 24-21? Did he take the foot off the pedal at 28-24? Nope, he led them on another field goal drive. So if I understand it correctly, you believe that there are Patriots fans who have criticized Manning for leading five scoring drives (four for touchdowns) in the second half of a game? Can you show me some examples of that criticism? I think you're building a pretty weak strawman here.

Let's not pretend like the 3rd quarter or early 4th quarter matter to people using the word "choke" when it's only ever applied to Peyton in the last 5 minutes (where Brady suddenly turned awful on Sunday night).

If you're looking for an example just look back to the 2010 matchup between these teams. Peyton leads Indy on a great 4th quarter comeback that falls just short. Like Brady's players in this game, Peyton's players had a chance to finish it for him when Brady threw a gift wrapped INT inside his own 20 in the last two minutes, only the Colts' defender that he threw it right into the chest of dropped the ball. Peyton failed to convert on the last drive, and was labeled a choker for it.

In Sunday's game, Brady did the same thing as Peyton did in that game by leading a great comeback that he couldn't quite finish off, only in his case when his player had a chance to win the game for him on a muffed punt, he succeeded. Same thing by both (great comebacks that fell short where a teammate had a chance to finish it for them), only in Brady's case the teammate finished it so he was lauded whereas in Peyton's case the teammate dropped it so Peyton was lynched, again

4) What people "usually pile on him for" is that Manning often makes critical, individual mistakes in big games. In his first playoff game, Manning led his team to zero points. In 2003 he threw four picks. In 2004 he led the Colts to 3 points after setting an NFL record for TD passes that year. In 2005 he lost to the Steelers three times, throwing an INT to Polamalu, got a call the NFL later admitted was wrong, then went three and out including a horrible sack, then got bailed out by a Bettis goal line fumble, and still managed to screw up the end game by throwing a deep ball instead of getting into field goal range. In 2006, his team dragged him to a Superbowl while he threw 7 interceptions against just 3 TDs. They went back to the Superbowl, where he threw a game ending pick six. In his playoff game last year, he threw a game killing interception in overtime. Those are individual mistakes attributable to the quarterback, and they've happened often enough that they are no longer anomalies.

Brady has done the same. Especially beyond their early careers where Peyton, admittedly, did used to struggle in big spots.

The difference with Brady is two-fold. Firstly is that in many of those cases he is bailed out by his teammates or sheer amounts of luck. The second is that his persona was written and finalized early in his career so people simply ignore it when it goes the other way now.

Via the first point, you can look back to a game like the 2011 AFC championship game where Brady threw a brutal interception with 7 minutes left that was returned to the NE 39 yard line, only to have his defense bail him out and force a turnover on downs. Then, as if that wasn't enough, after being given a second chance to ice it he immediately went 3 and out and gave the ball over to Baltimore, but was blessed with the ridiculous luck of a dropped Lee Evans game-winning TD and a missed 32 yard field goal by Billy Cundiff as time expired.

You can look at situations where Vanderjagt misses a 42 yard field goal to knock Indy out of the playoffs and Peyton is called a "choker" for not getting Vanderjagt closer, while Brady is considered the clutchest of clutch for getting Vinatieri in range for a longer 47 yard field goal that he happens to make. In fact, check out these absurd numbers of how kickers have done on game winning/tying FG attempts in the playoffs for/against Peyton/Brady.

Kickers attempting a game winning/tying field goal against Peyton in the playoffs are 3-3. Kickers attempting a game winning/tying field goal against Brady in the playoffs are 0-3.

Kickers attempting a game winning/tying field goal for Peyton in the playoffs are 0-1. Kickers attempting a game winning/tying field goal for Brady in the playoffs are 4-4 (two of which came after the infamous tuck rule play, just another of Brady's late game lucky breaks).

Literally every game winnning kick situation in the playoffs involving Peyton has gone against him (his kickers miss, his opponent's kickers make) while every one involving Brady has gone his way (his kickers make, his opponent's kickers miss). You could almost literally completely rewrite the legacy of Manning and Brady just by flipping around the performance of kickers making or missing kicks while Peyton/Brady sat on the bench.

As to the point that Brady's legacy is already written and people just hit the ignore button ever since then. It's things like Brady throwing brutally poorly timed interceptions in the 4th quarter of both the AFC championship game and Super Bowl in 2011 that no one probably even remembers. It's things like his 4th quarter QB rating in those two games being 17.3, a stat that was never even brought up by anyone whereas, with Peyton, it would have been the lead in to every story about the games. It's things like Brady being an utterly dreadful 1 for 8 on game tying/winning drives in the last 5 minutes of the game this year (not even counting the failed drives in overtime on Sunday), yet when he completed that one everyone went gaga over it while no one even talks about the other 7 failed attempts.

He's done plenty of other standout things too. 3 picks in playoff losses, etc etc. It's just pushed to the background because his legacy was decided 8 years ago and no amount of "Peyton-like" performances will ever change that.

6) The closest thing to this game that Manning has ever had was at the end of the 2006 AFC Championship game, when the Colts were getting blown out 21-6 in the first half, including two turnovers for touchdowns. The Patriots secondary had multiple in-game injuries, and Manning led a huge, 32 to 13 comeback to win 38-34 for the right to go to the Superbowl. I posted that night that that was the best half of football I'd ever seen Manning play. It's considered his greatest postseason accomplishment. But Brady didn't sit on his thumbs during that comeback. He threw for 232 and a TD, threw a go ahead touchdown pass to Jabar Gaffney when it was tied 21-21 to make it 28-21, led them on a field goal drive to break the ensuing 28-28 tie, then led them on yet another field goal drive to break the ensuing 31-31 tie. The Patriots led that game 34-31 with 1:42 left in the game, but lost when Addai ran in the final touchdown. Brady wasn't criticized for running the clock out because he didn't. He fought tooth and nail against the comeback and Manning outduelled him in the second half. It is entirely valid to criticize Manning for his decision making in Sunday's game because he didn't have Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell as his primary receivers, he had DeMaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker, and he kept audibling to runs and hoping that the game would end.

Yet again, you're giving Brady credit for the same thing you're slamming Peyton for. All you described here was that Brady threw the ball and drove them down the field after Indy had come back and made it a game again, which is the same thing that Peyton did on Sunday night.

In the game you're referring to, from the time the Patriots had a 21-3 lead to the time that Indy tied it back up at 21-21, Brady threw for a whopping 19 yards. It wasn't until after it became a game again that he put up those passing yards, same as Peyton on Sunday night. In the game 2010 when the Colts fell just short of another comeback Brady had 0 yards passing after NE had a 31-14 lead with 12 minutes left.

It's not necessarily an even comparison because the Colts tied it up fast and hence the Pats in 2006 wasted fewer possessions than the Broncos did on Sunday night, and I don't disagree with your point that Peyton should have stepped on their throat, but twice Peyton/Brady have squared off and Brady has failed to do the same and allowed Peyton to get back in the game and you have/had no criticism of Brady for doing the same thing.

In general, you're being way more level headed about this than most Pats fans are when the subject comes up, and I agree with some of your points (specifically that Manning never should have played it so conservatively when they had the lead). However, I think it's hard to argue that in many cases Brady has gotten praised for doing the same things that Manning gets brutally criticized for. In most of those cases it's either just wacky perception or dumb luck (kickers making/missing kicks, key turnovers by other members of the team in big spots, etc). People like to say "you make your own luck" but as much as I wrack my brain I can't think of any way that Brady made Denver muff a punt in OT while Peyton failed to make NE do the same, or anything that Brady did to make all those kickers miss those kicks against him in the playoffs while Peyton failed to make the kickers miss against him. I dunno, maybe Brady is just really good at yelling Baseketball style psycho-outs from the sideline and Peyton is terrible at it.

 

[bostonfred]

What do you think would have happened had Ball not fumbled?

Next possession, now up by a FG only, broncos ran twice, threw once. That throw was picked. I kind of wish they kept running it there.

Hand the ball off to the running back. If he fumbles, its his fault, not the qb's. Run on first and second, make a safe throw on third down. If he throws an interception, the mistake was not running the ball enough.This is the description of the quarterback we aren't allowed to compare to blaine gabbert? That sounds exactly like what you would say about gabbert, not one of the greatest qbs of all time. You're supposed to want the ball in his hands. The conventional wisdom you're talking about doesn't apply to all time greats.

Remember people accusing brady of running up the score in 2007 when he kept throwing the ball in the third quarter and kept his foot on the gas after the game was out of hand. They went undefeated through 18 games and 58 minutes of the 19th in a season where brady got out to big leads and kept throwing, or got behind and kept throwing.

But while we are going through the game logs, here's how the first half played out. Leading by 14, moreno runs for 5. Moreno runs for 6. Moreno runs for 2. Ball runs for 4. Ball runs for 6. Ball runs for 16. Penalty. Ball runs for 1. Manning sacked by chandler jones for a ten yard loss. Moreno runs for 6 on 3rd and 17. Field goal. They were running the clock out in the first quarter. It went run, run, then pass only to get the first down.

Next drive, moreno for 3, moreno for 2, manning pass for 6. Moreno for 17, moreno for 4, manning pass to the running back, manning pass on third down. Again, run, run, then pass only to pick up a first down. Although this time he did pass to his running back once behind the line of scrimmage, instead of handing it off to him.

Still in the first half, it goes moreno for 4, moreno for 4, then manning passes for 5 for the first down. Then a penalty and manning is forced to pass, converting a... wait for it... short screen to his running back on third and 20. Then its back to moreno, moreno, ball, and finally a pass on 2nd and 5 and a td pass on 3rd and 5.

Final drive of the first half, it goes moreno for 7, moreno for 4, moreno for 0, pass to moreno for 6, and then manning attempts a pass on third down.

I can understand why you started your drive chart analysis in the second half, but like I said, manning started running the clock out as soon as they got out to that big lead. It worked fairly well - they converted a 70 yard td drive, and got a field goal on a possession where they started with the ball at the new england 44. But manning clearly wanted nothing to do with throwing the ball unless he absolutely had to.

 

[moleculo]

What do you think would have happened had Ball not fumbled?

Next possession, now up by a FG only, broncos ran twice, threw once. That throw was picked. I kind of wish they kept running it there.

Hand the ball off to the running back. If he fumbles, its his fault, not the qb's. Run on first and second, make a safe throw on third down. If he throws an interception, the mistake was not running the ball enough.This is the description of the quarterback we aren't allowed to compare to blaine gabbert? That sounds exactly like what you would say about gabbert, not one of the greatest qbs of all time. You're supposed to want the ball in his hands. The conventional wisdom you're talking about doesn't apply to all time greats.

Remember people accusing brady of running up the score in 2007 when he kept throwing the ball in the third quarter and kept his foot on the gas after the game was out of hand. They went undefeated through 18 games and 58 minutes of the 19th in a season where brady got out to big leads and kept throwing, or got behind and kept throwing.

But while we are going through the game logs, here's how the first half played out. Leading by 14, moreno runs for 5. Moreno runs for 6. Moreno runs for 2. Ball runs for 4. Ball runs for 6. Ball runs for 16. Penalty. Ball runs for 1. Manning sacked by chandler jones for a ten yard loss. Moreno runs for 6 on 3rd and 17. Field goal. They were running the clock out in the first quarter. It went run, run, then pass only to get the first down.

Next drive, moreno for 3, moreno for 2, manning pass for 6. Moreno for 17, moreno for 4, manning pass to the running back, manning pass on third down. Again, run, run, then pass only to pick up a first down. Although this time he did pass to his running back once behind the line of scrimmage, instead of handing it off to him.

Still in the first half, it goes moreno for 4, moreno for 4, then manning passes for 5 for the first down. Then a penalty and manning is forced to pass, converting a... wait for it... short screen to his running back on third and 20. Then its back to moreno, moreno, ball, and finally a pass on 2nd and 5 and a td pass on 3rd and 5.

Final drive of the first half, it goes moreno for 7, moreno for 4, moreno for 0, pass to moreno for 6, and then manning attempts a pass on third down.

I can understand why you started your drive chart analysis in the second half, but like I said, manning started running the clock out as soon as they got out to that big lead. It worked fairly well - they converted a 70 yard td drive, and got a field goal on a possession where they started with the ball at the new england 44. But manning clearly wanted nothing to do with throwing the ball unless he absolutely had to.

which, I can't blame him for, even in the first half while nursing an (only) 14 point lead.. If your RB is ripping off runs at 6 yards per, and it's windy, and you have no strength in your throwing arm, and you can't step into throws because your ankles are jacked up, and the defense is leaving you 6 in the box, and your opponent's starting two DT's and MLB are out, handing the ball off becomes the best option by far. I have no problem with how any of that went down.

What I don't agree with was the lack of play-action. for the life of me, I can't figure out why that wasn't there. Manning has one of the best play-action in the game, but left it on the shelf. A little PA would have most definitely opened things up more for Tamme and/or Welker, and would have extended some of those 2nd half drives, IMO.

 

[moleculo]

Remember people accusing brady of running up the score in 2007 when he kept throwing the ball in the third quarter and kept his foot on the gas after the game was out of hand. They went undefeated through 18 games and 58 minutes of the 19th in a season where brady got out to big leads and kept throwing, or got behind and kept throwing.

obligatory snide comment: perhaps if the 2007 Patriots had a better developed ground game, they could have kept a lead for the final 2 minutes of their season.

 

[parrot]

Remember people accusing brady of running up the score in 2007 when he kept throwing the ball in the third quarter and kept his foot on the gas after the game was out of hand. They went undefeated through 18 games and 58 minutes of the 19th in a season where brady got out to big leads and kept throwing, or got behind and kept throwing.

obligatory snide comment: perhaps if the 2007 Patriots had a better developed ground game, they could have kept a lead for the final 2 minutes of their season.

Obligatory factual comment: They scored to take the lead by 4 with 2:45 left in the game and got the ball back on offense down by 3 with 29 seconds left.

 

[moleculo]

obligatory snide comment: perhaps if the 2007 Patriots had a better developed ground game, they could have kept a lead for the final 2 minutes of their season.Obligatory factual comment: They scored to take the lead by 4 with 2:45 left in the game and got the ball back on offense down by 3 with 29 seconds left.

now imagine if that drive was able to take an additional 0:29 off of the clock. Or, imagine how much the offense would have opened up and how much less pressure would be on Brady if they had run the ball more effectively than 16 times for 45 yards (and a one yard TD)

 

[bostonfred]

If Peyton Manning chucked the ball all day long on a day his RBs were averaging over 6 yards per carry and looked unstoppable, people would pile on him for being a glory boy who only cared about his stats. If Peyton Manning keeps handing off all day long on a day his RBs were averaging over 6 yards per carry and looked unstoppable, people call him gutless and suggest he didn't want the game in his hands when it really mattered. And despite this, the next time Manning has a big passing game I *GUARANTEE YOU* people will come out of the woodwork to call him a glory boy who just cares about his stats again. This is exactly the kind of double standard that makes it so hard to discuss Peyton Manning. Whatever he does is wrong, but only when he does it.

I'm not going to spend a long time talking about how an all time great quarterback shouldn't be worried about whether people come out of the woodwork to call him a glory boy who just cares about his stats, or how Brady didn't care when he was accused of running up the score for the entire 2007 season. This idea that it's only wrong when Manning does it is kind of silly, but I get it. It's called a persecution complex

Let's focus on the part where he was getting 6 yards per play from his running back. Why should he attempt a pass? Because he's Peyton ####### Manning, and he's been throwing the ball at 8.4 yards per attempt this season. If you run the ball until you fail to convert a first down, then that means you're not throwing the ball until it's third down, which gives the defense a much better chance of stopping it. Which is exactly what happened. It's called a bend but don't break defense, and it's something Belichick has professed for his entire career.

So yes, he got 6 yards per attempt out of Moreno by running into the soft coverages the Patriots were showing. But Peyton Manning is throwing the ball for 8.4 yards per attempt, to guys like DeMaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker, which is even better. Instead, by only throwing the ball in obvious passing situations, he ended up with a statline of 19 for 36 for 150 yards and just over 4 yards per attempt. The Patriots baited him into taking himself out of the game and he obliged.

 

[Anarchy99]

obligatory snide comment: perhaps if the 2007 Patriots had a better developed ground game, they could have kept a lead for the final 2 minutes of their season.Obligatory factual comment: They scored to take the lead by 4 with 2:45 left in the game and got the ball back on offense down by 3 with 29 seconds left.

now imagine if that drive was able to take an additional 0:29 off of the clock. Or, imagine how much the offense would have opened up and how much less pressure would be on Brady if they had run the ball more effectively than 16 times for 45 yards (and a one yard TD)

Now imagine if Eli Manning was called for being in the grasp before David Tyree caught a ball on the crown of his helmet or if Asante Samuel held on to an uncontested interception. You can pick apart any game and come up with an infinite number of outcomes.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

you guys can idol worship manning just the same if somebody's better than he is, you know.

no need to desperately reverse engineer that sunday night game to try and get him to measure up to the brady standard.

 

[moleculo]

If Peyton Manning chucked the ball all day long on a day his RBs were averaging over 6 yards per carry and looked unstoppable, people would pile on him for being a glory boy who only cared about his stats. If Peyton Manning keeps handing off all day long on a day his RBs were averaging over 6 yards per carry and looked unstoppable, people call him gutless and suggest he didn't want the game in his hands when it really mattered. And despite this, the next time Manning has a big passing game I *GUARANTEE YOU* people will come out of the woodwork to call him a glory boy who just cares about his stats again. This is exactly the kind of double standard that makes it so hard to discuss Peyton Manning. Whatever he does is wrong, but only when he does it.

I'm not going to spend a long time talking about how an all time great quarterback shouldn't be worried about whether people come out of the woodwork to call him a glory boy who just cares about his stats, or how Brady didn't care when he was accused of running up the score for the entire 2007 season. This idea that it's only wrong when Manning does it is kind of silly, but I get it. It's called a persecution complex

Let's focus on the part where he was getting 6 yards per play from his running back. Why should he attempt a pass? Because he's Peyton ####### Manning, and he's been throwing the ball at 8.4 yards per attempt this season. If you run the ball until you fail to convert a first down, then that means you're not throwing the ball until it's third down, which gives the defense a much better chance of stopping it. Which is exactly what happened. It's called a bend but don't break defense, and it's something Belichick has professed for his entire career.

So yes, he got 6 yards per attempt out of Moreno by running into the soft coverages the Patriots were showing. But Peyton Manning is throwing the ball for 8.4 yards per attempt, to guys like DeMaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker, which is even better. Instead, by only throwing the ball in obvious passing situations, he ended up with a statline of 19 for 36 for 150 yards and just over 4 yards per attempt. The Patriots baited him into taking himself out of the game and he obliged.

does that hold when you have severe nerve issues, limiting your arm strength to the point where you have difficulty gripping the ball (speculation)? What about when you have two sprained ankles, preventing you from properly stepping into the throw?

sometimes discretion is the better part of valor and if a HoF QB realizes the best chance for the team to win is thru the running game, I'm not one to second guess.

 

[Ghost Rider]

4) What people "usually pile on him for" is that Manning often makes critical, individual mistakes in big games. In his first playoff game, Manning led his team to zero points. In 2003 he threw four picks. In 2004 he led the Colts to 3 points after setting an NFL record for TD passes that year. In 2005 he lost to the Steelers three times, throwing an INT to Polamalu, got a call the NFL later admitted was wrong, then went three and out including a horrible sack, then got bailed out by a Bettis goal line fumble, and still managed to screw up the end game by throwing a deep ball instead of getting into field goal range. In 2006, his team dragged him to a Superbowl while he threw 7 interceptions against just 3 TDs. They went back to the Superbowl, where he threw a game ending pick six. In his playoff game last year, he threw a game killing interception in overtime. Those are individual mistakes attributable to the quarterback, and they've happened often enough that they are no longer anomalies.

Wrong. Jeez, and just the other day I was saying you at least always got your facts straight when it came to slamming Manning to fit your never-ending narrative, but now you are resorting to lying.

I'd love to know in what world losing 19-16 is being shut out: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200001160clt.htm

Before, you were just a crazy fanboy. Now, you're just a liar.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I can understand why you started your drive chart analysis in the second half, but like I said, manning started running the clock out as soon as they got out to that big lead. It worked fairly well - they converted a 70 yard td drive, and got a field goal on a possession where they started with the ball at the new england 44. But manning clearly wanted nothing to do with throwing the ball unless he absolutely had to.

Again, Denver scored a touchdown. You're criticising Peyton Manning for his playcalling on a drive that resulted in 7 points for Denver. A real quarterback would have also gotten 7 points on that drive, but he'd have gotten it with his arm, gosh darn it!

When a quarterback audibles to a run against a 6-man box, he's not being gutless. He's being smart. He's calling the plays that he thinks will get his team the most yards. That's a smart quarterback. A quarterback's job isn't to pad his stats, it's to get his offense the most yards possible. If running the ball does that, then good on Peyton for calling the runs.

Again, this is a ridiculous double standard. If Peyton passes a ton, he's a glory hound who only cares about his stats. If Peyton calls a bunch of runs, he's a gutless coward who's too frightened to take over the game. If Brady passes a ton, he's a steely-eyed competitor who wants his team's fortunes to live and die on his arm alone. If Brady calls a ton of runs, then he's a savvy veteran who manages the game and takes what the defense is giving him. It's nonsensical. The Peyton-haters have their mind made up about Manning, and everything he does only serves to confirm that prior opinion.

 

[Adam Harstad]

If Peyton Manning chucked the ball all day long on a day his RBs were averaging over 6 yards per carry and looked unstoppable, people would pile on him for being a glory boy who only cared about his stats. If Peyton Manning keeps handing off all day long on a day his RBs were averaging over 6 yards per carry and looked unstoppable, people call him gutless and suggest he didn't want the game in his hands when it really mattered. And despite this, the next time Manning has a big passing game I *GUARANTEE YOU* people will come out of the woodwork to call him a glory boy who just cares about his stats again. This is exactly the kind of double standard that makes it so hard to discuss Peyton Manning. Whatever he does is wrong, but only when he does it.

I'm not going to spend a long time talking about how an all time great quarterback shouldn't be worried about whether people come out of the woodwork to call him a glory boy who just cares about his stats, or how Brady didn't care when he was accused of running up the score for the entire 2007 season. This idea that it's only wrong when Manning does it is kind of silly, but I get it. It's called a persecution complex

Let's focus on the part where he was getting 6 yards per play from his running back. Why should he attempt a pass? Because he's Peyton ####### Manning, and he's been throwing the ball at 8.4 yards per attempt this season. If you run the ball until you fail to convert a first down, then that means you're not throwing the ball until it's third down, which gives the defense a much better chance of stopping it. Which is exactly what happened. It's called a bend but don't break defense, and it's something Belichick has professed for his entire career.

So yes, he got 6 yards per attempt out of Moreno by running into the soft coverages the Patriots were showing. But Peyton Manning is throwing the ball for 8.4 yards per attempt, to guys like DeMaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker, which is even better. Instead, by only throwing the ball in obvious passing situations, he ended up with a statline of 19 for 36 for 150 yards and just over 4 yards per attempt. The Patriots baited him into taking himself out of the game and he obliged.

Yeah, just like Denver baited Tom Brady into taking himself out of the game last year by cleverly giving up 250 rushing yards. And that fool Tom Brady actually fell for it! What a sucker.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I can understand why you started your drive chart analysis in the second half, but like I said, manning started running the clock out as soon as they got out to that big lead. It worked fairly well - they converted a 70 yard td drive, and got a field goal on a possession where they started with the ball at the new england 44. But manning clearly wanted nothing to do with throwing the ball unless he absolutely had to.

Again, Denver scored a touchdown. You're criticising Peyton Manning for his playcalling on a drive that resulted in 7 points for Denver. A real quarterback would have also gotten 7 points on that drive, but he'd have gotten it with his arm, gosh darn it!

When a quarterback audibles to a run against a 6-man box, he's not being gutless. He's being smart. He's calling the plays that he thinks will get his team the most yards. That's a smart quarterback. A quarterback's job isn't to pad his stats, it's to get his offense the most yards possible. If running the ball does that, then good on Peyton for calling the runs.

Again, this is a ridiculous double standard. If Peyton passes a ton, he's a glory hound who only cares about his stats. If Peyton calls a bunch of runs, he's a gutless coward who's too frightened to take over the game. If Brady passes a ton, he's a steely-eyed competitor who wants his team's fortunes to live and die on his arm alone. If Brady calls a ton of runs, then he's a savvy veteran who manages the game and takes what the defense is giving him. It's nonsensical. The Peyton-haters have their mind made up about Manning, and everything he does only serves to confirm that prior opinion.

Exactly, which was I am surprised you are even debating him, given that he has been driving this narrative for years and will only keep responding to every good point with his same blah, blah, blah nonsense.

 

[moleculo]

you guys can idol worship manning just the same if somebody's better than he is, you know.

no need to desperately reverse engineer that sunday night game to try and get him to measure up to the brady standard.

likewise, you don't have to interject your Brady nuthugging into a thread about Manning.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

If Peyton Manning chucked the ball all day long on a day his RBs were averaging over 6 yards per carry and looked unstoppable, people would pile on him for being a glory boy who only cared about his stats. If Peyton Manning keeps handing off all day long on a day his RBs were averaging over 6 yards per carry and looked unstoppable, people call him gutless and suggest he didn't want the game in his hands when it really mattered. And despite this, the next time Manning has a big passing game I *GUARANTEE YOU* people will come out of the woodwork to call him a glory boy who just cares about his stats again. This is exactly the kind of double standard that makes it so hard to discuss Peyton Manning. Whatever he does is wrong, but only when he does it.

I'm not going to spend a long time talking about how an all time great quarterback shouldn't be worried about whether people come out of the woodwork to call him a glory boy who just cares about his stats, or how Brady didn't care when he was accused of running up the score for the entire 2007 season. This idea that it's only wrong when Manning does it is kind of silly, but I get it. It's called a persecution complex

Let's focus on the part where he was getting 6 yards per play from his running back. Why should he attempt a pass? Because he's Peyton ####### Manning, and he's been throwing the ball at 8.4 yards per attempt this season. If you run the ball until you fail to convert a first down, then that means you're not throwing the ball until it's third down, which gives the defense a much better chance of stopping it. Which is exactly what happened. It's called a bend but don't break defense, and it's something Belichick has professed for his entire career.

So yes, he got 6 yards per attempt out of Moreno by running into the soft coverages the Patriots were showing. But Peyton Manning is throwing the ball for 8.4 yards per attempt, to guys like DeMaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker, which is even better. Instead, by only throwing the ball in obvious passing situations, he ended up with a statline of 19 for 36 for 150 yards and just over 4 yards per attempt. The Patriots baited him into taking himself out of the game and he obliged.

Yeah, just like Denver baited Tom Brady into taking himself out of the game last year by cleverly giving up 250 rushing yards. And that fool Tom Brady actually fell for it! What a sucker.

I think brady won last year, dude.

just like sunday night

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Heat turned up and old choker is back!

Not sure how that qualifies as choking. Manning played really poorly last night, but his performance late in the game was *WAY* better than his performance early in the game. His last four drives were a game-tying TD in the 4th quarter, a failed drive at the end of the 4th quarter, and then a pair of overtime drives that crossed midfield. The first overtime drive ended when an offensive pass interference penalty took Denver from an easy 4th-and-inches to a tough 3rd-and-14. The second overtime drive ended with Welker dropping an easy conversion on 3rd-and-8 to get Denver into field goal range.

I know that "choking" is really shorthand that means whatever makes Peyton look worst, but isn't playing your best football late in a 1-score game sort of the opposite of choking? The criticism of Peyton Manning last night should be that he sucked, not that he choked.

Seems like "choking" would be more relevant to the winning QB in that game who was totally unstoppable......until he just needed one score to win the game and then couldn't move the ball at all on 4 consecutive drives.

I don't follow. Surely you aren't talking about Tom Terrific, the king of clutch. Did you see that game-winning FG drive he led his team on in OT?

yeah, I saw that

did you see that 28 points he put up the first 16 min of the second half to take the lead after being buried 24-0?

smartass

well, I went back a couple pages to find the first of my recent posts from the last couple days, and this is the 'manning thread' that I am apparently interjecting brady into.

I think you guys have brady on the brain

 

[bostonfred]

People like to say "you make your own luck" but as much as I wrack my brain I can't think of any way that Brady made Denver muff a punt in OT while Peyton failed to make NE do the same, or anything that Brady did to make all those kickers miss those kicks against him in the playoffs while Peyton failed to make the kickers miss against him. I dunno, maybe Brady is just really good at yelling Baseketball style psycho-outs from the sideline and Peyton is terrible at it.

Let's look at some examples.Was Manning unlucky that Brady led the Patriots to 31 straight points? Moleculo will point out that Ball's fumble had a huge impact on the game. That was bad luck! But the Patriots certainly had their share of bad luck, with four fumbles in their first four drives, including three recovered by the defense, one of which was returned for a touchdown. In fact, both teams turned the ball at a rate commensurate to their touches. That's not luck, that's just statistics. The way in which it happened may lead you to believe it was bad luck, but the only reason the Patriots were in position to take advantage of the Broncos' mistake was because Brady came out slinging the ball in the second half. Similarly, if Manning hadn't been content to hand the ball off every down, the Patriots would never have had a chance to recover that ball. So yes, they did make their own luck.

Let's go back to the tuck rule game. The Patriots were lucky that Vinatieri made that field goal to send the game into overtime, but they didn't win that just because they had a lucky kick. Brady still had to complete a 13 yard pass to David Patten to line up the 45 yard kick. And after the Patriots made the kick, the Raiders got the ball bac with 30 seconds left, but decided to kneel on the ball and go to overtime. Understandable. In overtime, Brady went 8 for 8 throwing the ball, and on 4th and 4 from the 28, he could have lined Vinatieri up for another 45 yard field goal attempt, but he didn't. Instead, he threw the ball to Patten for six yards, drove them closer, and Vinatieri won the game on a 23 yard field goal. So yes, the 45 yard field goal in the snow was an incredible play, and Brady was lucky to have a possible hall of fame kicker on his team. But to diminish the whole thing as a couple lucky kicks? That's not really doing justice to what actually happened in the game.

Now let's look at Manning in the 2005 AFCCG. This is one of your examples of bad luck, where his kicker failed to win the game for him. Here's the drive charts:

1) 1st and 10 at IND 20 (6:03) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass to R.Wayne to IND 44 for 24 yards (B.McFadden).

1st and 10 at IND 44 (5:33) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass intended for B.Fletcher INTERCEPTED by T.Polamalu at 50. T.Polamalu to 50 for no gain. FUMBLES, touched at PIT 48, and recovers at PIT 48. T.Polamalu to PIT 48 for no gain (J.Saturday).

Play Challenged by IND and REVERSED. <--NFL Admits it should not have been overturned

(Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete to B.Fletcher (T.Polamalu).

2nd and 10 at IND 44 (5:26) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass to D.Clark to PIT 47 for 9 yards (I.Taylor).

3rd and 1 at PIT 47 (5:02) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass to M.Harrison to PIT 27 for 20 yards (T.Carter).

1st and 10 at PIT 27 (4:35) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass to R.Wayne ran ob at PIT 3 for 24 yards (T.Carter).

1st and 3 at PIT 3 (4:29) E.James up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 21 18

(Pass formation) PENALTY on IND-R.Diem, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 2 - No Play.

(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. P.Manning pass to R.Wayne is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. 21 18

J.Cortez kicks 69 yards from IND 30 to PIT 1. I.Taylor to PIT 19 for 18 yards (R.Mathis, R.Morris).

And just like that, it's 21-18! But with less than five minutes left in the game, things were looking bleak... until the Colts forced a three and out and got the ball back for Manning! And look what he did with it!

1st and 10 at IND 18 (2:31) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass to E.James to IND 20 for 2 yards (K.von Oelhoffen).

2nd and 8 at IND 20 (2:00) (Shotgun) P.Manning sacked at IND 12 for -8 yards (J.Porter).

3rd and 16 at IND 12 (1:33) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete to B.Stokley.

4th and 16 at IND 12 (1:27) (Shotgun) P.Manning sacked at IND 2 for -10 yards (sack split by J.Porter and J.Farrior).

OK, well, that was obviously his line's fault. And he would criticize them the next day for it, too. Because he's a leader. But wait - the Steelers gave him new life.

1st and 2 at IND 2 (1:20) J.Bettis up the middle to IND 4 for -2 yards (G.Brackett). FUMBLES (G.Brackett), RECOVERED by IND-N.Harper at IND 7. N.Harper to IND 42 for 35 yards (B.Roethlisberger, J.Tuman).

Are you kidding me? The game was over! What a lucky break! And it wasn't just a little lucky - the field position went from the 2 yard line to the 42! So here's what Manning does.

1st and 10 at IND 42 (1:01) P.Manning pass to R.Wayne to PIT 36 for 22 yards (B.McFadden, T.Polamalu).

1st and 10 at PIT 36 39) P.Manning pass to M.Harrison to PIT 28 for 8 yards (I.Taylor).

2nd and 2 at PIT 28 31) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete to R.Wayne (B.McFadden).

3rd and 2 at PIT 28 25) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete to R.Wayne.

Now, you can't really blame him for throwing incomplete on 2nd and 2. He was trying to advance the ball. But on 3rd and 2, with 25 seconds and two timeouts left, Manning didn't try to pick up the first down. He threw it deep in the end zone and left his kicker with a 46 yard attempt. Which he missed. Because Manning's unlucky with kickers. Not because of anything else he did, or any good luck he had along the way.

So yes, some people say you make your own luck. I'm one of them. And I firmly believe that Manning's tendency to experience bad luck isn't entirely the result of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

 

[Otis]

Think Bfred's invested in this topic at all?

 

[bostonfred]

Think Bfred's invested in this topic at all?

I enjoy arguing positions where I'm clearly right.

 

[TheFanatic]

What happened to a light hearted discussion of Manning and the TD record? Sheesh....

 

[moleculo]

People like to say "you make your own luck" but as much as I wrack my brain I can't think of any way that Brady made Denver muff a punt in OT while Peyton failed to make NE do the same, or anything that Brady did to make all those kickers miss those kicks against him in the playoffs while Peyton failed to make the kickers miss against him. I dunno, maybe Brady is just really good at yelling Baseketball style psycho-outs from the sideline and Peyton is terrible at it.

Let's look at some examples.Was Manning unlucky that Brady led the Patriots to 31 straight points? Moleculo will point out that Ball's fumble had a huge impact on the game. That was bad luck! But the Patriots certainly had their share of bad luck, with four fumbles in their first four drives, including three recovered by the defense, one of which was returned for a touchdown. In fact, both teams turned the ball at a rate commensurate to their touches. That's not luck, that's just statistics. The way in which it happened may lead you to believe it was bad luck, but the only reason the Patriots were in position to take advantage of the Broncos' mistake was because Brady came out slinging the ball in the second half. Similarly, if Manning hadn't been content to hand the ball off every down, the Patriots would never have had a chance to recover that ball. So yes, they did make their own luck.

...

if you are going to include me here, I would say that Brady and Manning had an equal amount of luck in this game. both teams had a RB fumble that led to a TD. both QB's had a turn-over. both teams had other near misses on int's.

 

[Mile High]

What happened to a light hearted discussion of Manning and the TD record? Sheesh....

NE fans.

 

[moleculo]

People like to say "you make your own luck" but as much as I wrack my brain I can't think of any way that Brady made Denver muff a punt in OT while Peyton failed to make NE do the same, or anything that Brady did to make all those kickers miss those kicks against him in the playoffs while Peyton failed to make the kickers miss against him. I dunno, maybe Brady is just really good at yelling Baseketball style psycho-outs from the sideline and Peyton is terrible at it.

Let's look at some examples.Was Manning unlucky that Brady led the Patriots to 31 straight points? Moleculo will point out that Ball's fumble had a huge impact on the game. That was bad luck! But the Patriots certainly had their share of bad luck, with four fumbles in their first four drives, including three recovered by the defense, one of which was returned for a touchdown. In fact, both teams turned the ball at a rate commensurate to their touches. That's not luck, that's just statistics. The way in which it happened may lead you to believe it was bad luck, but the only reason the Patriots were in position to take advantage of the Broncos' mistake was because Brady came out slinging the ball in the second half. Similarly, if Manning hadn't been content to hand the ball off every down, the Patriots would never have had a chance to recover that ball. So yes, they did make their own luck.

Let's go back to the tuck rule game. The Patriots were lucky that Vinatieri made that field goal to send the game into overtime, but they didn't win that just because they had a lucky kick. Brady still had to complete a 13 yard pass to David Patten to line up the 45 yard kick. And after the Patriots made the kick, the Raiders got the ball bac with 30 seconds left, but decided to kneel on the ball and go to overtime. Understandable. In overtime, Brady went 8 for 8 throwing the ball, and on 4th and 4 from the 28, he could have lined Vinatieri up for another 45 yard field goal attempt, but he didn't. Instead, he threw the ball to Patten for six yards, drove them closer, and Vinatieri won the game on a 23 yard field goal. So yes, the 45 yard field goal in the snow was an incredible play, and Brady was lucky to have a possible hall of fame kicker on his team. But to diminish the whole thing as a couple lucky kicks? That's not really doing justice to what actually happened in the game.

Now let's look at Manning in the 2005 AFCCG. This is one of your examples of bad luck, where his kicker failed to win the game for him. Here's the drive charts:

1) 1st and 10 at IND 20 (6:03) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass to R.Wayne to IND 44 for 24 yards (B.McFadden).

1st and 10 at IND 44 (5:33) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass intended for B.Fletcher INTERCEPTED by T.Polamalu at 50. T.Polamalu to 50 for no gain. FUMBLES, touched at PIT 48, and recovers at PIT 48. T.Polamalu to PIT 48 for no gain (J.Saturday).

Play Challenged by IND and REVERSED. <--NFL Admits it should not have been overturned

(Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete to B.Fletcher (T.Polamalu).

2nd and 10 at IND 44 (5:26) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass to D.Clark to PIT 47 for 9 yards (I.Taylor).

3rd and 1 at PIT 47 (5:02) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass to M.Harrison to PIT 27 for 20 yards (T.Carter).

1st and 10 at PIT 27 (4:35) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass to R.Wayne ran ob at PIT 3 for 24 yards (T.Carter).

1st and 3 at PIT 3 (4:29) E.James up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 21 18

(Pass formation) PENALTY on IND-R.Diem, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 2 - No Play.

(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. P.Manning pass to R.Wayne is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. 21 18

J.Cortez kicks 69 yards from IND 30 to PIT 1. I.Taylor to PIT 19 for 18 yards (R.Mathis, R.Morris).

And just like that, it's 21-18! But with less than five minutes left in the game, things were looking bleak... until the Colts forced a three and out and got the ball back for Manning! And look what he did with it!

1st and 10 at IND 18 (2:31) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass to E.James to IND 20 for 2 yards (K.von Oelhoffen).

2nd and 8 at IND 20 (2:00) (Shotgun) P.Manning sacked at IND 12 for -8 yards (J.Porter).

3rd and 16 at IND 12 (1:33) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete to B.Stokley.

4th and 16 at IND 12 (1:27) (Shotgun) P.Manning sacked at IND 2 for -10 yards (sack split by J.Porter and J.Farrior).

OK, well, that was obviously his line's fault. And he would criticize them the next day for it, too. Because he's a leader. But wait - the Steelers gave him new life.

1st and 2 at IND 2 (1:20) J.Bettis up the middle to IND 4 for -2 yards (G.Brackett). FUMBLES (G.Brackett), RECOVERED by IND-N.Harper at IND 7. N.Harper to IND 42 for 35 yards (B.Roethlisberger, J.Tuman).

Are you kidding me? The game was over! What a lucky break! And it wasn't just a little lucky - the field position went from the 2 yard line to the 42! So here's what Manning does.

1st and 10 at IND 42 (1:01) P.Manning pass to R.Wayne to PIT 36 for 22 yards (B.McFadden, T.Polamalu).

1st and 10 at PIT 36 39) P.Manning pass to M.Harrison to PIT 28 for 8 yards (I.Taylor).

2nd and 2 at PIT 28 31) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete to R.Wayne (B.McFadden).

3rd and 2 at PIT 28 25) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete to R.Wayne.

Now, you can't really blame him for throwing incomplete on 2nd and 2. He was trying to advance the ball. But on 3rd and 2, with 25 seconds and two timeouts left, Manning didn't try to pick up the first down. He threw it deep in the end zone and left his kicker with a 46 yard attempt. Which he missed. Because Manning's unlucky with kickers. Not because of anything else he did, or any good luck he had along the way.

So yes, some people say you make your own luck. I'm one of them. And I firmly believe that Manning's tendency to experience bad luck isn't entirely the result of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

neat. now do the 2011 AFC championship and tell me how Brady made his own luck.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

If Peyton Manning chucked the ball all day long on a day his RBs were averaging over 6 yards per carry and looked unstoppable, people would pile on him for being a glory boy who only cared about his stats. If Peyton Manning keeps handing off all day long on a day his RBs were averaging over 6 yards per carry and looked unstoppable, people call him gutless and suggest he didn't want the game in his hands when it really mattered. And despite this, the next time Manning has a big passing game I *GUARANTEE YOU* people will come out of the woodwork to call him a glory boy who just cares about his stats again. This is exactly the kind of double standard that makes it so hard to discuss Peyton Manning. Whatever he does is wrong, but only when he does it.

I'm not going to spend a long time talking about how an all time great quarterback shouldn't be worried about whether people come out of the woodwork to call him a glory boy who just cares about his stats, or how Brady didn't care when he was accused of running up the score for the entire 2007 season. This idea that it's only wrong when Manning does it is kind of silly, but I get it. It's called a persecution complex

Let's focus on the part where he was getting 6 yards per play from his running back. Why should he attempt a pass? Because he's Peyton ####### Manning, and he's been throwing the ball at 8.4 yards per attempt this season. If you run the ball until you fail to convert a first down, then that means you're not throwing the ball until it's third down, which gives the defense a much better chance of stopping it. Which is exactly what happened. It's called a bend but don't break defense, and it's something Belichick has professed for his entire career.

So yes, he got 6 yards per attempt out of Moreno by running into the soft coverages the Patriots were showing. But Peyton Manning is throwing the ball for 8.4 yards per attempt, to guys like DeMaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker, which is even better. Instead, by only throwing the ball in obvious passing situations, he ended up with a statline of 19 for 36 for 150 yards and just over 4 yards per attempt. The Patriots baited him into taking himself out of the game and he obliged.

does that hold when you have severe nerve issues, limiting your arm strength to the point where you have difficulty gripping the ball (speculation)? What about when you have two sprained ankles, preventing you from properly stepping into the throw?

sometimes discretion is the better part of valor and if a HoF QB realizes the best chance for the team to win is thru the running game, I'm not one to second guess.

that poor old cripple's been pretty fortunate so far this year for a guy who can barely grip the ball

 

[moleculo]

If Peyton Manning chucked the ball all day long on a day his RBs were averaging over 6 yards per carry and looked unstoppable, people would pile on him for being a glory boy who only cared about his stats. If Peyton Manning keeps handing off all day long on a day his RBs were averaging over 6 yards per carry and looked unstoppable, people call him gutless and suggest he didn't want the game in his hands when it really mattered. And despite this, the next time Manning has a big passing game I *GUARANTEE YOU* people will come out of the woodwork to call him a glory boy who just cares about his stats again. This is exactly the kind of double standard that makes it so hard to discuss Peyton Manning. Whatever he does is wrong, but only when he does it.

I'm not going to spend a long time talking about how an all time great quarterback shouldn't be worried about whether people come out of the woodwork to call him a glory boy who just cares about his stats, or how Brady didn't care when he was accused of running up the score for the entire 2007 season. This idea that it's only wrong when Manning does it is kind of silly, but I get it. It's called a persecution complexLet's focus on the part where he was getting 6 yards per play from his running back. Why should he attempt a pass? Because he's Peyton ####### Manning, and he's been throwing the ball at 8.4 yards per attempt this season. If you run the ball until you fail to convert a first down, then that means you're not throwing the ball until it's third down, which gives the defense a much better chance of stopping it. Which is exactly what happened. It's called a bend but don't break defense, and it's something Belichick has professed for his entire career.

So yes, he got 6 yards per attempt out of Moreno by running into the soft coverages the Patriots were showing. But Peyton Manning is throwing the ball for 8.4 yards per attempt, to guys like DeMaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker, which is even better. Instead, by only throwing the ball in obvious passing situations, he ended up with a statline of 19 for 36 for 150 yards and just over 4 yards per attempt. The Patriots baited him into taking himself out of the game and he obliged.

does that hold when you have severe nerve issues, limiting your arm strength to the point where you have difficulty gripping the ball (speculation)? What about when you have two sprained ankles, preventing you from properly stepping into the throw?sometimes discretion is the better part of valor and if a HoF QB realizes the best chance for the team to win is thru the running game, I'm not one to second guess.

that poor old cripple's been pretty fortunate so far this year for a guy who can barely grip the ball

it's a well documented problem that is worse in the cold. I'm convinced the "Manning sucks in the cold" has become a real thing post-surgery.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

it's a well documented problem that is worse in the cold. I'm convinced the "Manning sucks in the cold" has become a real thing post-surgery.

which one of you guys was saying how good he looked in the cold on this great scoring drive late in the game?

you guys gotta get together and get your story straight.

 

[bostonfred]

neat. now do the 2011 AFC championship and tell me how Brady made his own luck.

Sure. Late in the game, the Patriots trailed 20-16. They got first and goal. The Ravens stopped them three straight times. On fourth and goal from the one, Tom Brady lept over the line and scored a TD. Later in the fourth quarter, the Patriots picked off Flacco, but on the next play, Brady threw a deep pass that was tipped by Pollard and intercepted by Smith. Both teams made good defensive plays, but the Ravens won the exchange, getting a fresh set of downs after a great return all the way to the 38.The Patriots then had another defensive stand, and stopped the Ravens on third down at midfield. The Ravens went for it on fourth down, but the pass was incomplete, and the Patriots took over on downs. The Patriots ran the clock down to 1:44, the Ravens got the ball back with no timeouts, and threw a deep pass for Lee Evans, which was broken up by Sterling Moore. Evans would later be released. Moore broke up another pass intended for Pitta.

The "lucky" play came when the Ravens attempted a 32 yard field goal for the tie and a chance to play in overtime, and it went wide. The Ravens made some exceptional plays along the way - the tip, interception and long return on Brady's pass was pretty outstanding for a pass that sent into the end zone - and some bad plays, like Flacco's interception that immediately preceded it, or failing to convert fourth down. The Patriots made some exceptional plays - like Brady scoring over the top of the line of scrimmage on 4th and goal from the 1, and Sterling Moore breaking up two go-ahead pass attempts - but also some bad ones, like Brady throwing a ball that could be intercepted in the first place.

Yes, the game would have gone to overtime if Cundiff had hit that kick, but the Patriots did make their own luck by taking the lead in the fourth quarter in the first place. If they hadn't gone for it on 4th and goal from the 1, the whole complexion of the game would have been different. A lot of teams would have kicked the field goal there and tried to get the ball back. Not many would have relied on their QB to run the ball in from the one. And that put all the pressure on the Ravens for the rest of the fourth quarter.

 

[cstu]

What happened to a light hearted discussion of Manning and the TD record? Sheesh....

I try to get it back on track and it's still the Brady vs. Manning debate. Take it to that thread, guys.

 

[moleculo]

neat. now do the 2011 AFC championship and tell me how Brady made his own luck.

Sure. Late in the game, the Patriots trailed 20-16. They got first and goal. The Ravens stopped them three straight times. On fourth and goal from the one, Tom Brady lept over the line and scored a TD. Later in the fourth quarter, the Patriots picked off Flacco, but on the next play, Brady threw a deep pass that was tipped by Pollard and intercepted by Smith. Both teams made good defensive plays, but the Ravens won the exchange, getting a fresh set of downs after a great return all the way to the 38.The Patriots then had another defensive stand, and stopped the Ravens on third down at midfield. The Ravens went for it on fourth down, but the pass was incomplete, and the Patriots took over on downs. The Patriots ran the clock down to 1:44, the Ravens got the ball back with no timeouts, and threw a deep pass for Lee Evans, which was broken up by Sterling Moore. Evans would later be released. Moore broke up another pass intended for Pitta.

The "lucky" play came when the Ravens attempted a 32 yard field goal for the tie and a chance to play in overtime, and it went wide. The Ravens made some exceptional plays along the way - the tip, interception and long return on Brady's pass was pretty outstanding for a pass that sent into the end zone - and some bad plays, like Flacco's interception that immediately preceded it, or failing to convert fourth down. The Patriots made some exceptional plays - like Brady scoring over the top of the line of scrimmage on 4th and goal from the 1, and Sterling Moore breaking up two go-ahead pass attempts - but also some bad ones, like Brady throwing a ball that could be intercepted in the first place.

Yes, the game would have gone to overtime if Cundiff had hit that kick, but the Patriots did make their own luck by taking the lead in the fourth quarter in the first place. If they hadn't gone for it on 4th and goal from the 1, the whole complexion of the game would have been different. A lot of teams would have kicked the field goal there and tried to get the ball back. Not many would have relied on their QB to run the ball in from the one. And that put all the pressure on the Ravens for the rest of the fourth quarter.

well done. You are an excellent spinster. In lieu of a proper rebuttal, I will just leave it be in an effort to get this thread back on track, per public sentiment. I'm sure this won't be the last time this topic comes up.

 

[moleculo]

getting the Manning thread back on track - here's a really good article on where he is right now with the nerve thing.

 

[purestrength]

Thanks, moleculo.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

for all you guys who supposedly want this back on track I have yet to see a current total on this page

 

[cstu]

for all you guys who supposedly want this back on track I have yet to see a current total on this page

This is what he needs to break it:

Chargers - 4

Chiefs - 1

Pats - 2

Chiefs - 3

Titans - 2

Chargers - 3

Texans - 3

Raiders - 4

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

he can do that easy

losing to pats might actually keep him in the raiders game

 

[Adam Harstad]

The one thing that I think will really come into play late in the year is that I simply don't think Manning cares as much about records as some people seem to think he does. If he has 46-48 TDs heading into week 17, but Denver's already clinched HFA. I honestly think he'd sit out the game to rest up for the playoffs. I think his best chance at the TD record involves him either losing to the Chiefs this week (which keeps him fighting for playoff seeding through week 17) or just destroying one of his next few opponents with a 5 TD game.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

They're going to need to start running less inside the 5 as well. When Peyton broke the record the first time his RBs had 10 TDs. When Brady broke it his running backs had 15 TDs. Denver's running backs are on pace to score over 20 this year. They're just too effective running inside the 5 this year, whereas last time he broke it a big part of it was Edge's failures inside the 5 leading to tons of short pass TDs.

 

[Adam Harstad]

They're going to need to start running less inside the 5 as well. When Peyton broke the record the first time his RBs had 10 TDs. When Brady broke it his running backs had 15 TDs. Denver's running backs are on pace to score over 20 this year. They're just too effective running inside the 5 this year, whereas last time he broke it a big part of it was Edge's failures inside the 5 leading to tons of short pass TDs.

Also, Denver needs to stop calling that unstoppable naked bootleg at the goal line, too.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Yes.

 

[purestrength]

It's looking better now than it did last Sunday.

 

[Wingnut]

40 on the season.

 

[East Coast Bias]

41

 

[Billy Bats]

 

[purestrength]

If the temperature stays above 32 every week, I think he'll break it.

 

[Otis]

UPDATED:

Chargers - 4
Chiefs - 1
Pats - 2
Chiefs - 5
Titans - 2
Chargers - 3
Texans - 2
Raiders - 3