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WR A.J. Brown, PHI (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Today patience was rewarded.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Bout time
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, but this team looks like they think that throwing the ball is like getting wisdom teeth pulled without anesthesia. My word.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Its about time they frigging opened that offense up a bit. That offense looked constipated for 2.5 games.
Emmanuel Acho
OMG AJ BROWN!!!! This might be the most grown man play I’ve seen all day!
Let’s goooo!
#FlyEaglesFly
dipandglide
Footballguy
Game scripts are a thing. It was good to see AJB eat!
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
At what point is AJ droppable? 1 week out of 4 that he has almost lived up to his ADP. Bupkis the other 3.
I have him in a short-bench league. Have started him every week. Gonna probably lose this week and sink to 2-2.
I can’t keep going with him in my line-up, but can’t wrap my head around dropping him. Nobody will trade anything for him.
Dear Abby, how do I get out of this dysfunctional relationship.
I have him in a short-bench league. Have started him every week. Gonna probably lose this week and sink to 2-2.
I can’t keep going with him in my line-up, but can’t wrap my head around dropping him. Nobody will trade anything for him.
Dear Abby, how do I get out of this dysfunctional relationship.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Dude got 9 targets.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Not droppable. Though I'm not in a league like yours. So it's hard for me to judge that accurately. But I don't think he should be dropped in essentially any league.
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
I know. I know. But I can’t keep starting him.
I have Diggs, who seems to be the primary in NE with a decent Drake Maye. And I have Jamo, who is even more boom/bust than AJ. The only guy I can count on is Egbuka.
My team sucks. And the manager is even worse.
eighsse2
Footballguy
He did get 9 targets. And 10 last week. And 8 before that. Suppose you knew he'd get 9 targets next week. Would you figure he would only score a few fantasy points again?I know. I know. But I can’t keep starting him.
I have Diggs, who seems to be the primary in NE with a decent Drake Maye. And I have Jamo, who is even more boom/bust than AJ. The only guy I can count on is Egbuka.
My team sucks. And the manager is even worse.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
The concern is real for me. My 1st pick in League Uno was Jamaar Chase. My 2nd pick was AJ Brown. I am 1-3. You can't just drop Brown. Can't really trade him. I guess I can see the logic in sitting him against really bad teams.
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
Yeah, but those targets were garbage targets. They weren’t ever going to be productive plays- they were force-feeding him to keep him happy.He did get 9 targets. And 10 last week. And 8 before that. Suppose you knew he'd get 9 targets next week. Would you figure he would only score a few fantasy points again?I know. I know. But I can’t keep starting him.
I have Diggs, who seems to be the primary in NE with a decent Drake Maye. And I have Jamo, who is even more boom/bust than AJ. The only guy I can count on is Egbuka.
My team sucks. And the manager is even worse.
It’s not AJ, and it’s not really Jalen. It’s the playcalling. And, unfortunately, I don’t see the coaching staff super motivated to change because they’re 4-0.
Not only are the plays telegraphed run vs pass, DBs are playing over the toP of AJ, like he can’t run past him. The route trees are so basic and vanilla.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I tried to go back and look to see other times where a reliable WR started this slowly that actually did bounce back.
AJ Brown is currently WR46 through 4 weeks. So finding other WRs in previous years that surprisingly started in that same range through 4 weeks for reasons other than missing games, I've got...
2024:
Courtland Sutton, WR44 through 4 weeks --> finished with 81-1081-8, WR15
Calvin Ridley, WR51 through 4 weeks --> finished with 64-1017-4, WR30
2022:
Brandon Aiyuk, WR48 through 4 weeks --> finished with 78-1015-8, WR17
Terry McLaurin, WR41 through 4 weeks, finished with 77-1200-5, WR19
So there is at least some precedent to turning things around a bit. That means several of those guys did put up borderline WR1 scoring the rest of the year to climb back that high.
AJ Brown is currently WR46 through 4 weeks. So finding other WRs in previous years that surprisingly started in that same range through 4 weeks for reasons other than missing games, I've got...
2024:
Courtland Sutton, WR44 through 4 weeks --> finished with 81-1081-8, WR15
Calvin Ridley, WR51 through 4 weeks --> finished with 64-1017-4, WR30
2022:
Brandon Aiyuk, WR48 through 4 weeks --> finished with 78-1015-8, WR17
Terry McLaurin, WR41 through 4 weeks, finished with 77-1200-5, WR19
So there is at least some precedent to turning things around a bit. That means several of those guys did put up borderline WR1 scoring the rest of the year to climb back that high.
Yeah, honestly, I'm still of the belief that he's a buy-low, and you can probably get him REALLY low. 27 targets in 3 weeks. He'll get going.He did get 9 targets. And 10 last week. And 8 before that. Suppose you knew he'd get 9 targets next week. Would you figure he would only score a few fantasy points again?I know. I know. But I can’t keep starting him.
I have Diggs, who seems to be the primary in NE with a decent Drake Maye. And I have Jamo, who is even more boom/bust than AJ. The only guy I can count on is Egbuka.
My team sucks. And the manager is even worse.
Going in the way back machine, 2012 Andre Johnson. in a similar situation where the offense starting going through the RB (Arian Foster) instead of him had:
3-21 on 4 targets
2-72-1 on 4 targets
3-56 on 6 targets
1-15 on 6 targets
Andre Johnson finished WR8 that year, though it was his last top-10 finish.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Kinda where my thinking is. I own him in one league and my other league I think I'm gonna offer up Chubba. I just can't fully wrap my head on his value this year. I believe. I wanna believe. I'm also wrong a lot of times. Stupid football
unckeyherb
Footballguy
A quarter of the way through the season, this is holding true. I'm still confident in this prediction.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Davonta has scored more points than AJ through four weeks. One was taken as a top 5 WR, the other was taken as like WR 40.
That's pretty overexaggerated. AJ was going WR10, Smith was going WR23. They are basically having the exact same season so far, with Smith ever so slightly ahead by 1-4 points depending on scoring system.
The thing to take a victory lap on, would be if you'd said the Eagles offense in general is vastly overpriced, and you should avoid everyone at ADP except Goedert and possibly Hurts.
dkp993
Footballguy
Did you watch the game? (Not being an ***, truly asking). I did, at least 5/6 of those targets were completely uncatchable. Like zero chance, 5 feet over his head out bounds type. Point is, the 9 is a phantom number.He did get 9 targets. And 10 last week. And 8 before that. Suppose you knew he'd get 9 targets next week. Would you figure he would only score a few fantasy points again?I know. I know. But I can’t keep starting him.
I have Diggs, who seems to be the primary in NE with a decent Drake Maye. And I have Jamo, who is even more boom/bust than AJ. The only guy I can count on is Egbuka.
My team sucks. And the manager is even worse.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
In addition, AJB has 40% more targets than DeVonta so it's hardly like DeVonta has taken over as the lead dog.
Outlook has changed for AJB for sure, but I think if most were projecting the rest of the season they would still take AJB to be the leading receiver the rest of the way. It's not like this has been a Rome/DJ Moore situation.
eighsse2
Footballguy
I only saw some. But, is that a reason to be pessimistic, or actually optimistic (or neither), going forward? Do you expect 5/6 of his targets to be uncatchable ROS? Seems a bit wild to project that.Did you watch the game? (Not being an ***, truly asking). I did, at least 5/6 of those targets were completely uncatchable. Like zero chance, 5 feet over his head out bounds type. Point is, the 9 is a phantom number.He did get 9 targets. And 10 last week. And 8 before that. Suppose you knew he'd get 9 targets next week. Would you figure he would only score a few fantasy points again?I know. I know. But I can’t keep starting him.
I have Diggs, who seems to be the primary in NE with a decent Drake Maye. And I have Jamo, who is even more boom/bust than AJ. The only guy I can count on is Egbuka.
My team sucks. And the manager is even worse.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
some of those passes should not be consider a "target"I only saw some. But, is that a reason to be pessimistic, or actually optimistic (or neither), going forward? Do you expect 5/6 of his targets to be uncatchable ROS? Seems a bit wild to project that.Did you watch the game? (Not being an ***, truly asking). I did, at least 5/6 of those targets were completely uncatchable. Like zero chance, 5 feet over his head out bounds type. Point is, the 9 is a phantom number.He did get 9 targets. And 10 last week. And 8 before that. Suppose you knew he'd get 9 targets next week. Would you figure he would only score a few fantasy points again?I know. I know. But I can’t keep starting him.
I have Diggs, who seems to be the primary in NE with a decent Drake Maye. And I have Jamo, who is even more boom/bust than AJ. The only guy I can count on is Egbuka.
My team sucks. And the manager is even worse.
eighsse2
Footballguy
I
If anything I feel like that helps his outlook going forward. It means he's not Mr. Butterfingers, none of it was his fault, and it means Hurts and/or the gameplan are continuing to look his way frequently. Just have to hope the coverage isn't so great all the time or the passes are better.some of those passes should not be consider a "target"I only saw some. But, is that a reason to be pessimistic, or actually optimistic (or neither), going forward? Do you expect 5/6 of his targets to be uncatchable ROS? Seems a bit wild to project that.Did you watch the game? (Not being an ***, truly asking). I did, at least 5/6 of those targets were completely uncatchable. Like zero chance, 5 feet over his head out bounds type. Point is, the 9 is a phantom number.He did get 9 targets. And 10 last week. And 8 before that. Suppose you knew he'd get 9 targets next week. Would you figure he would only score a few fantasy points again?I know. I know. But I can’t keep starting him.
I have Diggs, who seems to be the primary in NE with a decent Drake Maye. And I have Jamo, who is even more boom/bust than AJ. The only guy I can count on is Egbuka.
My team sucks. And the manager is even worse.
dkp993
Footballguy
Well that depends on when you asked me that. Prior to the start of the season, it would have been wild. Which is why I drafted him. Now, well 3 out of 4 games tells me it’s not so wild to consider.I only saw some. But, is that a reason to be pessimistic, or actually optimistic (or neither), going forward? Do you expect 5/6 of his targets to be uncatchable ROS? Seems a bit wild to project that.Did you watch the game? (Not being an ***, truly asking). I did, at least 5/6 of those targets were completely uncatchable. Like zero chance, 5 feet over his head out bounds type. Point is, the 9 is a phantom number.He did get 9 targets. And 10 last week. And 8 before that. Suppose you knew he'd get 9 targets next week. Would you figure he would only score a few fantasy points again?I know. I know. But I can’t keep starting him.
I have Diggs, who seems to be the primary in NE with a decent Drake Maye. And I have Jamo, who is even more boom/bust than AJ. The only guy I can count on is Egbuka.
My team sucks. And the manager is even worse.
I keep asking why all we seem to hear every week is how AJB is not pleased but you don’t hardly hear a peep that Devonta Smith is only getting 5 targets a game.
Just got to wonder if more attempts are made to grease the squeaky wheel how that sits with Devonta?
This is not a comparison or argument about who is better. But it is saying between the 2 of them, especially how they’ve performed this year, that no one on the team should have a bigger gripe over their usage than Devonta.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
I’ve got AJB on an attractive three-year contract, there is nothing to do but ride this out. I don’t have three better options where I could sit him either. He’s also a candidate for reversion the mean upward.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
just traded him away, I got the feeling this is going to be a norm and the big games are only going to come when they get challenged; maybe a break up is for the best after this season
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
Cap hit would be too big to trade him. We’ve kinda been through this before with AJ.
Philly will eventually figure out their Offensive identity and get him involved. I’ll likely be out of Fantasy playoff contention by then.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Reception Perception guys are doubting AJB ROS due to some declining metrics so far this season.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
The other PHI WRs totaled 3/19/0 outside of one 20 yarder to Smith. IIRC Brown started 2/2 then had 7 straight incompletions. Brown was either draped or Hurts was ditching the ball or throwing it out of bounds. They just seemed obsessed with not turning the ball over.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Nothing says fantasy football like benching AJB this week due to the matchup with Surtain and seeing 6/110 and a long score.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Why would Surtain cover the Eagles' WR3?
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Its not who's covering AJB, he's got the stuff to beat great CBs. But will the Denver DLine stop Barkley and Hurts from running 1st downs. Then can Hurts even get the ball to Brown, he looks regressed as a passer
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Hurts looked pretty damn good as a passer the second half of the Rams game and the first half of the last game. It should be noted that he seemed to be forcing passes to AJ in the second half and made a lot of bad throws that upped the "targets" to AJ but were in effect uncatchable. It should also be noted that prior to those errant passes Jalen got destroyed on a play the initially was flagged as helmet to helmet (but got picked up when replay showed the defender drove his shoulder into Hurts' helmet). The knock on effect of the hit was still that Jalens head slammed the ground. Watching in real timewe all thought it was a concussion level event, but obviously he stayed in and didn't complete a pass for the rest of the game after that hit.
ETA I've listened to a bunch of analysts on the radio for the last two days-guys I respect (Ron Jaworski, Seth Joyner, Ray Didinger) all say that AJ was being covered in man coverage almost exclusively (which is not how you would expect a DC to cover him) and was simply not getting open.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Local fan here.
Listening on the radio, Hugh Douglas relayed some concerning conversations he's had with current players in the last day or so. Basically he said that he texted a few guys on the team that he's friends with to inquire about whats going on with AJ Brown. Said he immediately got a bunch of calls back from these players that told him they weren't going to touch that. He said that his sense in talking to these guys was that whatever the problem is, its bigger than football. And that at least one of the guys said, "hey man, its BAD bad."
The assumption here is that its a continuation of the broken relationship with Jalen that BG spoke out about last year. This is starting to smell like some Donovan/TO type stuff, except that they at least were able to look past the personal problems and produce on the field. If these guys can't work through whatever this is, it has the potential to derail this season.
Listening on the radio, Hugh Douglas relayed some concerning conversations he's had with current players in the last day or so. Basically he said that he texted a few guys on the team that he's friends with to inquire about whats going on with AJ Brown. Said he immediately got a bunch of calls back from these players that told him they weren't going to touch that. He said that his sense in talking to these guys was that whatever the problem is, its bigger than football. And that at least one of the guys said, "hey man, its BAD bad."
The assumption here is that its a continuation of the broken relationship with Jalen that BG spoke out about last year. This is starting to smell like some Donovan/TO type stuff, except that they at least were able to look past the personal problems and produce on the field. If these guys can't work through whatever this is, it has the potential to derail this season.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Probably just a squeaky wheel thing, unless there is something to what @unckeyherb posted.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I started to think you were whining but not at all, the hit/concussion type event fills in some blanks for why he didn't complete a single pass the rest if th way
I thought you were crying foul on the Bucs, like a dirty hit or something but that's not what you wrote
Thank You Herb
