Doesn't seem like weather should be a factor. 33 during the day tomorrow, little wind, down to 19 degrees by game time, no precipitation anticipated. AJ has been playing cold Novembers & Decembers for 5 years with around 5-8% decline in production (e.g., normal expected variance.)
I've been going back and forth between four players all week (need to start 2):
- Travis Benjamin
- Michael Floyd
- AJ Green
- Todd Gurley
My thought process:
TB - good matchup, below average QB, on the road - excellent season but not consistent enough to trust.
MF - Pretty much the #1 ARI WR over the last 10 weeks. When healthy the targets/production are there.
OK, Floyd at WR3. Now to compare TB to two studs to figure out the Flex.
AJG - have started him 14 times, last week was an injury induced aberration, was very productive with AJM two weeks ago. Inconsistent up/down year, but was on fire for 3 straight weeks prior to last week. Very tough matchup (but not a shutdown situation), on the road.
TG - have benched him the last several weeks (started him 8 times overall.) Great talent, no balance to offense, facing 8/9 man fronts. Ran well versus the Lions and had decent FF production v. the Bucs. Seahawks smallish lineman can be moved but game flow could be a factor, though Fisher often plays Carrol tight & has beaten him 3 times.
It feels like the floor for these 3 is AJG>>>TB>TG
It feels like the ceiling for these 3 is TB>AJG>TG
I have a really good team with several good matchups. I don't need this matchup desperately, but what I do need is to avoid a 4 pointer. Presuming AJG is healthy, I believe he can beat Harris & Talib occasionally. He won't have a 12-17 target week but with 6-8 he should do fine. If I needed a home run I might look elsewhere, but I'm going to go with the one who brought me here.