grateful zed
Footballguy
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WR Adam Thielen - CAR (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter grateful zed
- Start date
grateful zed
Footballguy
hold or sell?
he seams like a solid player, but is he doomed being on the viks and behind diggs?
he seams like a solid player, but is he doomed being on the viks and behind diggs?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Can we capitalize WR and MIN? Sorry... just looks weird and brings my subtle OCD out...
My personal feeling of Thielen is that he is the WR to own in that offense. Look at the targets per game before and after Diggs' injury. They completely swapped targets even after Diggs was supposedly healthy. He fits Bradford's passing style much better. I am targeting him heavily this year in my redrafts
My personal feeling of Thielen is that he is the WR to own in that offense. Look at the targets per game before and after Diggs' injury. They completely swapped targets even after Diggs was supposedly healthy. He fits Bradford's passing style much better. I am targeting him heavily this year in my redrafts
I was going to post a hearty agreement from a fellow OCD grammar editor, but I just couldn't get past the missing period at the end of your post.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
He doesn't get to go against Damarious Randall every week.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Diggs was never healthy last year.
I admire Theilen's work ethic but it's my opinion FWIW that last year was lightning in a bottle.
I admire Theilen's work ethic but it's my opinion FWIW that last year was lightning in a bottle.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Too small of a sample size for Adam Thielen for me to consider this reliable, and over a larger sample of games I would expect this to decline, however Adam Thielen has a remarkable 10 yards per target for his career so far. This is better than all other WR (with more than 30 targets) from 2014-2016 except DeSean Jackson.
Almost all of this happened last season as Thielen only had 31 targets prior to the 2016 season. While I do expect this number to come down, it is also a sign of how good Thielen can be.
Thielen is a local player from Mankato Minnesota (where the Vikings have training camp every year) who made the team as an undrafted free agent. He made the team because of his attitude and how he takes to coaching, as well as his ability to execute. He plays all of the WR positions and so can be used in variety of ways. When Diggs is healthy he will be the Flanker and Thielen the side end. Diggs will often work from the slot and Thielen can play outside on either side as the Z or the X WR.
I would expect Adam Thielen with the new contract the Vikings gave him to be on the field a lot. He can block. He should be playing at least 75% of the VIkings offensive snaps as he did last season. He played in all 16 games last year but he only started in 10 of them. I would say his opportunity should be about 100 targets or 6.25 targets per game, which would be a slight increase from his 5.75 targets per game in 2016. The downside would be 80 targets and upside 120 targets. He has a career catch rate of 72% so 58-72-86 receptions. Even if his yards per target decreases to something good but more normal, such as 9 YPT that would be 720-900-1080 yards. I wouldn't expect too many TD.
I still expect Stefon Diggs to have more targets than AT but I think Thielen is capable of being a WR 3 in fantasy based on the above projection. You can likely draft or acquire Thielen for less than what a WR 3 costs.
Almost all of this happened last season as Thielen only had 31 targets prior to the 2016 season. While I do expect this number to come down, it is also a sign of how good Thielen can be.
Thielen is a local player from Mankato Minnesota (where the Vikings have training camp every year) who made the team as an undrafted free agent. He made the team because of his attitude and how he takes to coaching, as well as his ability to execute. He plays all of the WR positions and so can be used in variety of ways. When Diggs is healthy he will be the Flanker and Thielen the side end. Diggs will often work from the slot and Thielen can play outside on either side as the Z or the X WR.
I would expect Adam Thielen with the new contract the Vikings gave him to be on the field a lot. He can block. He should be playing at least 75% of the VIkings offensive snaps as he did last season. He played in all 16 games last year but he only started in 10 of them. I would say his opportunity should be about 100 targets or 6.25 targets per game, which would be a slight increase from his 5.75 targets per game in 2016. The downside would be 80 targets and upside 120 targets. He has a career catch rate of 72% so 58-72-86 receptions. Even if his yards per target decreases to something good but more normal, such as 9 YPT that would be 720-900-1080 yards. I wouldn't expect too many TD.
I still expect Stefon Diggs to have more targets than AT but I think Thielen is capable of being a WR 3 in fantasy based on the above projection. You can likely draft or acquire Thielen for less than what a WR 3 costs.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
I've already sold. Mid last season. Right after his huge breakout game. Dynasty keep in mind. Don't regret it. Diggs is just a better player, more dynamic, game breaking. And Treadwell is going to slowly creep into the snap count until he dominates it. They invested a first round pick in him. He's not going anywhere. Thielen's snaps and role will be significantly reduced by the end of this upcoming season.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Yep, but not sure how that's relevant. If you're citing it as a bad decision, then it's equally bad to force the ball to the JAG you just paid $20M in order to justify both his salary and the Bradford trade.
I think it's just the opposite, and ironically it's exactly because they now have Bradford as their QB. They recognize things have changed. When they drafted Treadwell they expected to have a more downfield QB like TBW and Treadwell's ability to get downfield and win jump balls meshed better with TBW's skill set.. With Bradford (and this crappy OL), there's more emphasis on being able to get quick separation at the line. They found a guy that fits what Bradford's looking for (he pounded him with targets for a reason) and have adapted the succession plan. Treadwell's going to have to get Bradford to trust him, it's pretty clear Bradford isn't going to adapt his game and just start chucking it up for Treadwell to go win. Bradford's never been that kind of QB and he's not going to start now.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yeah it was mostly a joke about bad decision making on their part - but I actually think Thielen is a decent possession type receiver. I still see it as an overpay, but agree he fits well with Bradford's capabilities. I traded him away in one league this offseason in a package, as I think he's just really depth and people will see the end of year stats which include a monster Week 16 game and value him more than they should.
Ironically, he would have won me a championship (due to that Week 16) as I had him in my lineup before I left for the week Vietnam before my championship game but when I arrived I chickened out and put Larry Fitzgerald back in over him (hated Fitz' matchup but went with the "name"). So maybe I'm a bit bitter as well.
grateful zed
Footballguy
i dont see this guy as a high end wr, but his consistancy and targets give him a solid wr3+ future.
perhaps not an every week starter, but the kind of depth guy you want on your dyno roster. im holding.
perhaps not an every week starter, but the kind of depth guy you want on your dyno roster. im holding.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree with a lot of what you said. However the last part, about Bradford not being a good deep passer is something I hear a lot of people say, but the evidence suggests something else.
Cian Fahey who likes Sam Bradford more than I do has made similar observations about Bradford prior to him becoming a Viking.
Now PFF also has charted that Sam Bradfords accuracy drops a ton when he is under pressure. He was under pressure a lot in 2016 with the Vikings offensive line playing mostly second and third stringers. Jake Long who no other team wanted was an upgrade for the Vikings briefly. That is how bad they were.
This necessitated a lot more quick throws because the offensive line could not protect long or really much at all. That Bradford was able to complete so many of his passes under this situation, and not throw more interceptions than he did is really quite remarkable. However I don't think that defines the type of QB Sam Bradford is. He can throw deep very well. He just needs time to do it.
Warhogs
Footballguy
I don't see him as a sell high because nobody is respecting him. Go and try to trade him right now and I think most likely you will get garbage offers. I would rather hold and hope he continues to hold a significant role. My guess is that if I put him up in my league for a rookie pick I might not get offered more than a 3rd round pick. Maybe a late 2nd if I'm lucky.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I didn't say he was a bad deep passer, rather that he's not the kind to chuck to ball up and let the receiver go get it. I suppose this is partly because he's never had that kind of go-to guy he trusted, but he's always been a precision passer that likes to see guys break open or run timing routes to an open spot. He doesn't try to fit it into tight spaces and he doesn't toss it up there for his guy to go get. It doesn't seem like a good fit with Treadwell at all.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Just remember that 20% of his season long stats, and 40% of his touchdowns came against the Packers in week 16. Damarious Randall is garbage at corner. Most likely that won't happen again as Randall will either get better or get replaced (more likely). That's a big chunk of production that is open to volatility.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
He threw a great deep pass to Diggs in the end zone week two against the packers. Threaded a needle on that one.
I agree that Sam Bradford takes to make easy throws as well. He isn't aggressive enough on third downs and settles for the check down option (Kyle Rudolph) too often. I am hoping to see less of that if the offensive line can give him some more time. AdamThielen and Diggs can get open deep.
I see Treadwell filling more of a possession receiver role than as a deep threat. Thielen should play the X WR when Diggs is healthy and get more deep looks than Diggs who will be playing the Z or slot. Although Treadwell is a different player than either of them, I see him playing more Z and slot than X WR.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
That's what I was looking for. Treadwell doesn't create much space and needs a much more aggressive QB willing to fit it in or trust the WR to win. Deep, intermediate, or short there has to be a space created for Bradford to throw to or he just won't. He's plenty accurate when he does so it's curious why he's so tentative, but he is.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well he had had two ACL injuries. He got hit a lot when he was with the Rams who were pretty bad back then and earned the 1st overall pick they used on Bradford.
This is one of the things I think was very different about Bridgewater who was under pressure a lot, and part of that was the play calling, part of that was Teddy holding on to the ball too long, but Teddy was relatively accurate on throws under pressure.
Bradford's pre snap reads are good enough for him to identify where he wants to go with the ball before the snap. He gets rid of the ball so quickly that a lot of the time he isn't getting to a second read. Which is why I say he was good at the pre snap decisions, because that should lead to more turnovers, and maybe it will in 2017.
There will be other players open who would have been better options if Bradford would take the time to check his second read.
I think sometimes the defense would give Bradford an open read that they were comfortable defending and preventing the 1st down. The Vikings failed a lot of short yardage situations because the offensive line couldn't get any push. Some of those shorter throws could still be converted into first downs if they can win a higher percentage of those by just running the ball effectively when you need a yard. Makes a shorter throw or safer option easier to forgive as well.
I am not sure RIley Reiff is up to the task, but there should be some improvement.
As far as how Treadwell fits with Bradford, I think you make a good point about Bradford (or any QB really) wanting as wide window to throw to as the receiver can give them, a lot of it is about timing as well. A receiver who the QB can count on to be at the spot of the route when they are supposed to, which is something Treadwell's WR college coach specifically said he needed to work on.
Treadwell might have been more successful with Teddy as the QB. We will never know. I think Treadwell was held back by injuries that were not severe but enough to slow his development. I think he was slow to learn the playbook and then adjusting to a new QB they just didn't have time to add more inconsistency. At the same time Teddy likes to throw to guys who are open and run their routes on time as well. So Treadwell may still not have earned Teddy's trust had he been able to play.
In any case this is Adam Thielen's job for now and I don't see Treadwell being used in 2 WR sets. They will still play a lot of 3 WR though. I think Treadwells blocking can be nice to have to support Diggs in 3 WR.
Adam Thielen is the guy who will be on the line more often than not and may play the most snaps of all the Vikings WR in 2017.The high target games Theilen had were when Diggs was out and he was playing more slot and Z.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This article does a good job of breaking looking at 3rd down situations for the Vikings last season after Pat Shurmur took over as the OC.
This sounds like the exact opposite of the kind of guy I want on my dyno roster. I'm not looking for a one-week guy to fill in for a bye or injury, I want my depth/bench guys to have significant upside and potential to become every-week starters.
grateful zed
Footballguy
sure, we all want 3 wr1s on our team, but we cant. adam is a rock for wr3 production and can be counted on every week, he was perfect for my4 1st place last year.
1.
12.
Nelson, Jordy GBP WR
306.70
19.169
15.20
18.30
28.10
B
13.80
11.80
1.90
19.40
22.40
30.60
11.80
17.10
25.80
22.10
19.40
36.40
12.60
4
2.
34.
Thomas, Michael NOS WR (R)
259.70
17.313
11.80
9.60
20.10
14.40
B
18.80
23.00
12.30
24.30
8.00
11.80
31.80
8.20
18.20
15.80
31.60
5
3.
39.
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
246.90
15.431
28.10
20.10
13.00
11.30
26.10
10.90
16.00
17.40
B
25.30
12.30
9.30
17.80
4.20
12.70
7.10
15.30
(Q)
9
4.
78.
Thielen, Adam MIN WR
197.20
12.325
9.40
8.10
5.90
4.10
25.70
B
7.20
7.00
10.80
12.20
17.50
13.30
15.60
14.10
0.00
44.60
1.70
6
5.
97.
Lee, Marqise JAC WR
174.40
10.900
4.20
12.50
9.40
6.80
B
12.10
17.70
3.10
13.50
9.60
15.80
13.90
7.40
16.30
0.00
17.50
14.60
5
6.
113.
Inman, Dontrelle SDC WR
163.00
10.188
1.60
1.70
6.20
25.00
1.30
2.10
8.80
11.20
11.60
9.30
B
23.90
12.90
19.10
11.80
7.40
9.10
11
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Thielen on Zimmer's Return, Learning From Jennings
Most of this is him talking about it being good to have Zimmer back. He says the first thing Zimmer told him was about some things he did wrong and needed to fix.
He mentions learning a lot from Greg Jennings and he talks about the need for WR to create separation being key to being successful in the league. He mentions creating separation at the top of the route, that even if the route was poorly run, if you can create separation at the top of the route with good breaks, that you can still be successful on the play. Mike Zimmer has said the same thing about Theilen last year, that he is good at the top of his routes.
Most of this is him talking about it being good to have Zimmer back. He says the first thing Zimmer told him was about some things he did wrong and needed to fix.
He mentions learning a lot from Greg Jennings and he talks about the need for WR to create separation being key to being successful in the league. He mentions creating separation at the top of the route, that even if the route was poorly run, if you can create separation at the top of the route with good breaks, that you can still be successful on the play. Mike Zimmer has said the same thing about Theilen last year, that he is good at the top of his routes.
mr roboto
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
Let me preface this by saying I'm comparing a situation and it is simply a ceiling outlook for Thielen.
He reminds me of Antonio Brown a lot in his situation. 1 year of semi-unexpected production, a good contract extension and then as we know AB torched the league after that and outperformed his contract to become one of the best WR's in football. There is a similar career path up to this point with Thielen and his ceiling could be that of Antonio Brown. I own him in 1 league and everything about his numbers look like he's the real deal.
The one league I own him I have gotten offers of a late 2nd, not so great so I'm definitely holding and hoping. No point in selling cheap like that for what was a super impressive breakout. Even if you don't think he'll improve and repeat his numbers, his value isn't likely to decline.
He reminds me of Antonio Brown a lot in his situation. 1 year of semi-unexpected production, a good contract extension and then as we know AB torched the league after that and outperformed his contract to become one of the best WR's in football. There is a similar career path up to this point with Thielen and his ceiling could be that of Antonio Brown. I own him in 1 league and everything about his numbers look like he's the real deal.
The one league I own him I have gotten offers of a late 2nd, not so great so I'm definitely holding and hoping. No point in selling cheap like that for what was a super impressive breakout. Even if you don't think he'll improve and repeat his numbers, his value isn't likely to decline.
mr roboto
Footballguy
I love Theilen. Great player. Could be a legit WR2 for years to come.
But, the more likely scenario is he regresses due to a healthy Diggs, improved Treadwell and improved run game. This is why it may be wise to sell now.
He's not as quick or twitchy as Edelman, but he's not slow either, so to a degree yes. I was thinking about Decker because of they are close in size, good on routes and always getting open.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I agree. Over 20% of his yardage totals and 2 out of his 5 TDs came in Week 16. That inflates his year end numbers. Now I'm not saying he was useless outside of that or that having a huge week is a bad thing, I'm just not sure things line up so well for him again (as you imply).
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree with this. I think a 2nd round rookie pick for Theilen in 2017 was a pretty solid offer and while he could prove to be worth more than that, I am not really expecting more than WR 3 numbers for fantasy unless Treadwell face plants (possible) and Diggs misses a bunch of games (also possible).
At the same time Theilen established a good connection with Bradford that they will likely build on. Bradford had excellent QB rating when throwing to Theilen (better than with other receivers) and Theilen did have some impressive efficiency metrics himself, earning 10.1 yards per target for his career so far. The only other player that efficient over the last 3 seasons was DeSean Jackson at 10.2 yards per target. (Of course Theilens numbers come from a smaller sample size).
Theilens break out game against Houston 8 targets 7 receptions 127 yards Diggs was out and they moved Theilen around (featuring him) his other big game against the Packers 15 targets 13 receptions 202 yards 2 TD Diggs did play but only had 6 targets.
Open to Theilen proving us wrong as a Vikings fan that would be great, just seems unlikely.
For fantasy I think his value is being a WR 3 that you may be able to draft as a WR 5 or 6 for your team in later rounds.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
I tend to favor on the side of optimism after a guy proves his worth over a larger stretch of games. Where as I never thought Treadwell was THAT good, more of a default #1 due to his size and draft pedigree instead of earning it, but doesn't have the full game to be that, at least yet. And Diggs is a guy I like a lot too but those 2 (Thielen and Diggs) compliment each other very well in their respective roles so that's what makes me an optimist about it. Treadwell is a wildcard in the Vikings WR core, and if he does well to improve, that limits Thielen's upside but even though Thielen is on a small sample size, it's large enough to be projecting a larger role going forward, at least for me.
2016 wasn't a complete fluke, and if I have to settle for someone trading me a 2nd for him, I'd rather take the gamble he is an underrated WR2 for the next 3 year window. I've seen enough to believe he's legit with a ceiling yet to be reached and could be a bargain with his contract this offseason. That's the main thing that reminded me of AB, as a Steelers fan it's great business to extend a guy like that and have him outperform that contract and I'm sure they are only hoping for that.
ryno1980
Footballguy
No problem with Thielen but Diggs is still a great value and is their best downfield threat. WR 7 through 10 weeks last year before injury.
Milkman
Footballguy
fightingillini
Footballguy
Let's not go too far here. Diggs and Thielen got the majority of targets.....it is going to be a 1a-1b situation.
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Situation reminds me of a slightly poor man's Jordy/Cobb deal from a few years back. Probably won't be as many deep balls due to Bradford not being in the same stratosphere as Rodgers but you're gonna have great weeks regardless.
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