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WR Allen Robinson, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

Boston said:
Those who drafted Fred Taylor only to see him get injured multiple times are now staring at a wall having fantasy flashbacks...
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Fred gets a bad rep. He really wasn't that injury prone given the position. In 2001 he did miss 14 games with a serious knee injury. Besides that year he played in at leas 10 games every year with the Jags. Removing the year he mostly missed with the knee injury, he played in 138 of 160 games. The reason he got the bad reputation was the two years he missed the most time with injury were seasons #2 and #4. Seasons #1 and #3 were really good for him so he came into #2 and #4 with big expectations and a high daft slot so people felt really burned which caused the tag injury prone stuck with him. After that major knee injury in his 4th year, he played in the next 101 of 112 games. 

Fred Taylor posted 4 amazing fantasy seasons:

98: 1600 and 17

00: 1600 and 14

02: 1700 and 8

03: 1900 and 7

 
Ilov80s said:
Fred gets a bad rep. He really wasn't that injury prone given the position. In 2001 he did miss 14 games with a serious knee injury. Besides that year he played in at leas 10 games every year with the Jags. Removing the year he mostly missed with the knee injury, he played in 138 of 160 games. The reason he got the bad reputation was the two years he missed the most time with injury were seasons #2 and #4. Seasons #1 and #3 were really good for him so he came into #2 and #4 with big expectations and a high daft slot so people felt really burned which caused the tag injury prone stuck with him. After that major knee injury in his 4th year, he played in the next 101 of 112 games. 

Fred Taylor posted 4 amazing fantasy seasons:

98: 1600 and 17

00: 1600 and 14

02: 1700 and 8

03: 1900 and 7
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Was talking about those two years early in his career when it looked like he could win a league by himself and was drafted very high (which is the theme of the post about Jags getting drafted high)...those were devastating injuries to his Owners because he was such a high pick...I know because I was one of them... 

 
Boston said:
Was talking about those two years early in his career when it looked like he could win a league by himself and was drafted very high (which is the theme of the post about Jags getting drafted high)...those were devastating injuries to his Owners because he was such a high pick...I know because I was one of them... 
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Yeah, I've just always been a Fred defender since I owned him only in his good years

 
I owned Robinson everywhere last year, so I'm biased toward him :)  

TDs have to go down, you'd say that about almost any WR after scoring 14.  He does have Dez talent, imo, so still high on my list.  I have him at WR7 just behind Dez and right in the tier with Hopkins.  I'm picking late in both of my main leagues so good chance I take him at the 1.12/2.01 turn if he's there.

 
Not sure what to think about his upcoming year. I think he is a heck of a football player but am concerned about drafting in the first two rounds. A stronger defense, bolstered rushing attack, and a healthy Julius Thomas may take too many touches from him.  

 
King of the Jungle said:
Not sure what to think about his upcoming year. I think he is a heck of a football player but am concerned about drafting in the first two rounds. A stronger defense, bolstered rushing attack, and a healthy Julius Thomas may take too many touches from him.  
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And a healthy Hurns. He played hurt all year.

 
I expect Robinson to regress a bit due to reasons previously mentioned...probably won't be on many of my teams.  Upside doesn't justify ADP IMHO.

Solid player though, helped me win a few titles last year.

 
The regression is coming surely, maybe less targets and TDs but my guess is his targets will be of better quality, so that may lessen the blow some. Still easily a top 8 WR unless injury, IMO.

My question would be, with everyone assuming the regression will be there, how can we not assume the same for hopkins? Hopkins' startup ADP on DFW is 1.03, to Robinsons 1.08. Its closer together on some other sites, but still.

I think right this second id rather have hopkins, over robinson, but essentially he cannot go any higher (AB and ODB being 1,2) so this ADP data suggests that regression isnt a concern for Hopkins, and that seems odd to me given the volume of targets he had, and lack of competition for those targets VS Robinsons situation, which I think is actually improved, and I could argue Hopkins situation for fantasy got worse.

Thoughts?

 
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Pwingles said:
The regression is coming surely, maybe less targets and TDs but my guess is his targets will be of better quality, so that may lessen the blow some. Still easily a top 8 WR unless injury, IMO.

My question would be, with everyone assuming the regression will be there, how can we not assume the same for hopkins? Hopkins' startup ADP on DFW is 1.03, to Robinsons 1.08. Its closer together on some other sites, but still.

I think right this second id rather have hopkins, over robinson, but essentially he cannot go any higher (AB and ODB being 1,2) so this ADP data suggests that regression isnt a concern for Hopkins, and that seems odd to me given the volume of targets he had, and lack of competition for those targets VS Robinsons situation, which I think is actually improved, and I could argue Hopkins situation for fantasy got worse.

Thoughts?
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I definitely assume regression for Hopkins. The first 8 games Nuk had 112 targets 66 receptions,  870 yards and 6 TDs. The last 8 games he had 80 targets, 45 receptions, 651 yards and 5 TDs. During that first 8 game stretch Houston was 3-5 giving up 27 points a game and the final 8 games they went 6-2 giving up 14 points a game. I think the Texans are closer to the second half in terms of defense and style of play so I feel a lot more comfortable projecting Hopkins to 160 targets, 90 receptions, 1300 yards and 10 TDs. That is still a great year but more of a WR10-12 than the WR 6 he was last year. 

 
Pwingles said:
The regression is coming surely, maybe less targets and TDs but my guess is his targets will be of better quality, so that may lessen the blow some. Still easily a top 8 WR unless injury, IMO.

My question would be, with everyone assuming the regression will be there, how can we not assume the same for hopkins? Hopkins' startup ADP on DFW is 1.03, to Robinsons 1.08. Its closer together on some other sites, but still.

I think right this second id rather have hopkins, over robinson, but essentially he cannot go any higher (AB and ODB being 1,2) so this ADP data suggests that regression isnt a concern for Hopkins, and that seems odd to me given the volume of targets he had, and lack of competition for those targets VS Robinsons situation, which I think is actually improved, and I could argue Hopkins situation for fantasy got worse.

Thoughts?
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Hopkins was in a dysfunctional offense last year that was lead by a god awful Hoyer...this year if they can get that offense going, watch out.

Love me some Hopkins this year.

 
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TripItUp said:
Hopkins was in a dysfunctional offense last year that was lead by a god awful Hoyer...this year if they can get that offense going, watch out.

Love me some Hopkins this year.
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he still had a zillion targets

if the offense is improved, which it is, it would stand to reason his targets would go down some, no?

 
Pwingles said:
he still had a zillion targets

if the offense is improved, which it is, it would stand to reason his targets would go down some, no?
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If the offense stays on the field longer with more sustained drives, it's reasonable to conclude his targets will actually increase.

 
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He was 3rd in the league in targets, 1 behind AB, and 11 behind Julio. The theme i see with these 3 is, they had no other legit recieving options. So, if you add, a better run game, and more WR in the draft, im not sure i agree that will ever translate into more targets for anyone. Maybe better quality targets, but i disagree the volume will ever likely be more than what we saw for last year in this new situation

anywho, my point isnt really to say that hopkins is over valued, just more that peoples expectations of AR15 are that he wont touch what he did last year, and I think that his situation to produce is as good as anyones

 
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TripItUp said:
If the offense stays on the field longer with more sustained drives, it's reasonable to conclude his targets will actually increase.
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That will be tough to do. No WR took more snaps last year than Hopkins. Only 7 offensive players in the NFL took more snaps than Hopkins last year (6 OL and Rivers).  He had 85 more snaps than the second highest WR Brandon Marshall. Marshall is the 2nd non QB/OL to appear on the list and he ranked 49th in the NFL. The data I am looking at only goes back 3 years, but no WR was even close to seeing the number of snaps Hopkins did last year. 

 
He has an unusual skill set (maybe not for some of the top WRs). He can sky for the ball and win in the air, but is like a RB or punt returner in terms of elusiveness with the ball in his hands in the open field.

 
Ilov80s said:
That will be tough to do. No WR took more snaps last year than Hopkins. Only 7 offensive players in the NFL took more snaps than Hopkins last year (6 OL and Rivers).  He had 85 more snaps than the second highest WR Brandon Marshall. Marshall is the 2nd non QB/OL to appear on the list and he ranked 49th in the NFL. The data I am looking at only goes back 3 years, but no WR was even close to seeing the number of snaps Hopkins did last year. 
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that seems crazy to me given how inconsistent their offense was...I'll have to take a closer look at this.

thanks for the info

 
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TripItUp said:
that seems crazy to me given how inconsistent their offense was...I'll have to take a closer look at this.

thanks for the info
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I thought something seemed off so I went to a second site and it had the same numbers. It's very surprising. I doubt many would guess that trivia question.

 
ESPN Jaguars reporter Mike DiRocco believes "it'll be tough" for Allen Robinson to match last season's statistical output.

Robinson posted a ridiculous 80-1,400-14 line on 142 targets and led the league with 31 catches of 20-plus yards. Only nine receivers were targeted more than Robinson. With the addition of Chris Ivory to pair with T.J. Yeldon and returns to health by Julius Thomas and Marqise Lee, we tend to agree with DiRocco.

Source: ESPN.com
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I have a tough time slotting AR15. Watching him last year it's pretty clear he's one of the best WRs in the NFL. However I do think the arguments for regression make a lot of sense. Where does everyone have him amongst the WRs?

 
AR15 should be a top 10 WR on everyone's board if u ask me. I have him slotted at 4. I think it's crazy that Hopkins is consistently ranked higher with the uncertainty of Osweiller. Bortles is much better imo. 

 
I expect some regression with the emergence of Julius Thomas and an improved defense. 

A bit overvalued IMHO but will still have a solid season.

 
TripItUp said:
I expect some regression with the emergence of Julius Thomas and an improved defense. 

A bit overvalued IMHO but will still have a solid season.
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I'm more worried about Hurns and the running game than Thomas.  JT usually ends up getting injured, if he stays healthy all year then I could see him having an impact, but I won't be worrying about that prematurely.

Right now I have him at 8, right behind Mike Evans, and right ahead of Sammy Watkins.

 
steelers1080 said:
I'm more worried about Hurns and the running game than Thomas.  JT usually ends up getting injured, if he stays healthy all year then I could see him having an impact, but I won't be worrying about that prematurely.

Right now I have him at 8, right behind Mike Evans, and right ahead of Sammy Watkins.
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NonPPR, yes? 

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
AR15 should be a top 10 WR on everyone's board if u ask me. I have him slotted at 4. I think it's crazy that Hopkins is consistently ranked higher with the uncertainty of Osweiller. Bortles is much better imo. 
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I think he slots in right around 10. The problem is that I think the Jags receivers are better suited for Best Ball. If AR15, Hurns, and Julius are all healthy, it will be interesting to see how defenses approach them. I could see one of them going off one week and putting up a 4/55/0 the next.

It will also be interesting to see the Jags approach red zone play calling. Quite a few times the Jags were cashing in TDs on 3rd and goal from 6 because the run game went nowhere.

 
JaxBill said:
I think he slots in right around 10. The problem is that I think the Jags receivers are better suited for Best Ball. If AR15, Hurns, and Julius are all healthy, it will be interesting to see how defenses approach them. I could see one of them going off one week and putting up a 4/55/0 the next.

It will also be interesting to see the Jags approach red zone play calling. Quite a few times the Jags were cashing in TDs on 3rd and goal from 6 because the run game went nowhere.
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When JT got healthy from week 5 on... it was he and Hurns who were best suited for bestball. ARob just kept crushing.

 
Currently he is ranked WR8 on my board non-ppr.  He is in a tier with Dez, Hopkins and Nelson.  

I am projecting similar usage as last season, with a regression in yards per catch and TD rate.  I don't think JT is a special talent that will hurt Robinson or Hurns.  Like @JaxBill mentioned though they may see less usage in the red zone with an improved run game.  

My projection 80/1320/10.   11.9 PPG   5 catches per game, 16.5 yards per catch (17.5 last year), 12% Td Rate (18% last year)

 
Julius Thomas' problems last year not only included health but also that he was out of shape.

Supposedly, he's in much better condition this camp.

 
I could see a very familiar situation happen this coming year.  Starts the year slow and isn't getting enough thrown his way.  Subtly suggests he get more looks.  Nothing changes.  #####es about it more.  Starts getting tons of looks and putting up monster numbers.  Just like Sammy Watkins starting around week 12 last year.

 
JaxBill said:
I think he slots in right around 10. The problem is that I think the Jags receivers are better suited for Best Ball. If AR15, Hurns, and Julius are all healthy, it will be interesting to see how defenses approach them. I could see one of them going off one week and putting up a 4/55/0 the next.

It will also be interesting to see the Jags approach red zone play calling. Quite a few times the Jags were cashing in TDs on 3rd and goal from 6 because the run game went nowhere.




 
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The Jags had an unusually high number of TDs in the red zone for their WRs and I think you hit the nail on the head as to why.  

Good insight.

 
Allen Robinson has reportedly looked better in Jaguars camp than he did last year.
This, of course, is saying something for a player who led the NFL in touchdown catches (14) as a sophomore. Per Jagaurs.com's John Oehser, Robinson "has looked like a different receiver early in training camp -- and a much better one, too," showing improved route running and a my-ball mentality. It's a reminder that Robinson is still only 22 years old and has an upward trajectory. His touchdowns might regress, but Robinson is still getting better.

 
 
Source: Jaguars.com 
Aug 7 - 6:19 PM
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While he's on his bye... Where does ARob go from here? I recent bought in on him by shipping off Melvin Gordon, not feeling wonderful about it so far. Should we be expecting a ROS WR1, or something else?

 
Bortles is awful. I knew that going in.   He's getting the targets but so little production.  He's got another decent matchup this Thursday.  If he can't produce in prime time he's going to the bench for me.  For anybody.  This is ridiculous.

 
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