WR Allen Robinson (1 Viewer)

[massraider]

In case anyone doesn't know/remember, Stafford went to McVay regarding ARob. He pushed for him.

I do not think we are looking at an Aaron Rodgers/ Valdes-Scantling situation here.

Deep breath.........

 

[Ministry of Pain]

View attachment 2983
Evan Silva
@evansilva


Matt Stafford attributed Allen Robinson’s lack of Week 1 production to #Bills playing almost strictly zone. “I think they played, maybe 2 snaps of man? It’s a lot of zone. They clouded to the boundary quite a bit, Allen saw a lot of Cover 2 over there.”
https://t.co/wN1nbYLxTl

I guess every team knows how to blowout the Rams the rest of the season.

 

[menobrown]

I saw some stats indicating he was very good at beating man coverage last year but Fields was awful and also running for his life each week

And yet Mooney seemed fine.

 

[SoBeDad]

You guys have convinced me that Robinson is a buy low candidate. I'll start with offering Kadarius Toney, pending the outcome of Sunday's game. We're talking pre-week 1 ADPs of low 20s vs mid 40s.

 

[efactor]

A friend did a FBG draft this morning. He got Robinson at 7.10

I always liked doing the main event on the Saturday after the Thursday night game was played. Lot of good value after the overreactions

 

[Stuart Ullman]

rather have Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, or Allen Robinson it would have been a landslide for Robinson. After 1 game of bad tape, I imagine that everyone would rather have those two guys

You honestly think everyone would rather have Jefferson than Robinson on their fantasy team now? JFC.

The YOUNGER WR who has shown chemistry with Stafford? I don't see why it's a stretch.

The NFL stands for "not for long". It's not like Allen Robinson was a 1st round pick. He has just as much pedigree as Jefferson.


This is Robinson's 9TH season.
This is Van Jefferson's 3RD season.



I don't see why this is a stretch. Jefferson had TWICE as many yards as Robinson last year:

2021 Allen Robinson: 38 catches / 410 yards / 1 TD
2021 Van Jefferson: 50 catches / 802 yards / 6 TD



Just because you are sleeping on Van Jefferson doesn't make my statement less true. He's younger. He has more chemistry with Stafford. He is playing for his first big boy contract. He nearly doubled Allen Robinson's production from last season.

Jefferson had 6 TD and 800 yards last season.
Robinson only has 4 seasons out of 9 where he had more TDs and yards than Van Jefferson had last season.



Back in my day there used to be this thing called 3rd year WR breakout. I guess the hip thing nowadays is to tie your wagon to a 9th year journeyman WR and throw your hands up in the air when he can't seperate. Why try to fix your team?

Let's just ignore the younger player with less injuries, more recent production, and more chemistry with the QB...

 

[menobrown]

A friend did a FBG draft this morning. He got Robinson at 7.10

I always liked doing the main event on the Saturday after the Thursday night game was played. Lot of good value after the overreactions

He went 7.11 this morning in my main event.

Just for comp's sake in the 28 main event drafts which took place the two days prior to today his ADP was 4.3 and latest he went in those 28 drafts was 4.10.

So he's apparently taken around a 3 to 3.5 round drop. Is that overreaction? We'll see but that's about where I have him right now.

 

[Smack Tripper]

A friend did a FBG draft this morning. He got Robinson at 7.10

I always liked doing the main event on the Saturday after the Thursday night game was played. Lot of good value after the overreactions

How does this work do you do. Week 1 lineup? Can you use last nights players?

 

[efactor]

A friend did a FBG draft this morning. He got Robinson at 7.10

I always liked doing the main event on the Saturday after the Thursday night game was played. Lot of good value after the overreactions

How does this work do you do. Week 1 lineup? Can you use last nights players?

Yeah, all players from Thursday night can be put in the lineup.

Allen and Davis both went in the mid 2nd this morning in his draft.

 

[menobrown]

A friend did a FBG draft this morning. He got Robinson at 7.10

I always liked doing the main event on the Saturday after the Thursday night game was played. Lot of good value after the overreactions

How does this work do you do. Week 1 lineup? Can you use last nights players?

Lineups are not locked for week after the opener so anyone who you drafted from last nights game you have option of starting them retroactively, or benching them retroactively as anyone with Stafford, Akers, Robinson and Knox in their lineups will be doing if they got another option.

It seems strange but has been this way in a lot of high stakes contest since WCOFF originated about 20 years ago.

It sucks big time btw when players draft players for the points that you play against. I did a main event this morning and some guy at pick 2 pulled Kupp and Josh Allen to start so the poor team in the 1 hole is already in a hole before he's even made his third round pick.

 

[massraider]

I guess every team knows how to blowout the Rams the rest of the season.

Yeah, start Josh Allen, and rotate 7 good defensive lineman. Should be easy peasy

 

[Shawnky]

I see week 1 never changes around here. Have ARob as my WR3 in a start 3. Not worried at all.

 

[efactor]

A friend did a FBG draft this morning. He got Robinson at 7.10

I always liked doing the main event on the Saturday after the Thursday night game was played. Lot of good value after the overreactions

He went 7.11 this morning in my main event.

Just for comp's sake in the 28 main event drafts which took place the two days prior to today his ADP was 4.3 and latest he went in those 28 drafts was 7.10.

So he's apparently taken around a 3 to 3.5 round drop. Is that overreaction? We'll see but that's about where I have him right now.

I'm surprised he fell to 7.10 in any draft BEFORE last night. Amazing that 12 guys were all out on him at that point

I'm worried but would still jump on him in the 5th. Rams won't suck all season. Unfortunately

 

[nysfl2]

rather have Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, or Allen Robinson it would have been a landslide for Robinson. After 1 game of bad tape, I imagine that everyone would rather have those two guys

You honestly think everyone would rather have Jefferson than Robinson on their fantasy team now? JFC.

The YOUNGER WR who has shown chemistry with Stafford? I don't see why it's a stretch.

The NFL stands for "not for long". It's not like Allen Robinson was a 1st round pick. He has just as much pedigree as Jefferson.


This is Robinson's 9TH season.
This is Van Jefferson's 3RD season.



I don't see why this is a stretch. Jefferson had TWICE as many yards as Robinson last year:

2021 Allen Robinson: 38 catches / 410 yards / 1 TD
2021 Van Jefferson: 50 catches / 802 yards / 6 TD



Just because you are sleeping on Van Jefferson doesn't make my statement less true. He's younger. He has more chemistry with Stafford. He is playing for his first big boy contract. He nearly doubled Allen Robinson's production from last season.

Jefferson had 6 TD and 800 yards last season.
Robinson only has 4 seasons out of 9 where he had more TDs and yards than Van Jefferson had last season.



Back in my day there used to be this thing called 3rd year WR breakout. I guess the hip thing nowadays is to tie your wagon to a 9th year journeyman WR and throw your hands up in the air when he can't seperate. Why try to fix your team?

Let's just ignore the younger player with less injuries, more recent production, and more chemistry with the QB...

The Rams knew all those facts during the offseason, and went out and gave Allan Robinson a guaranteed $31 million to come play in front of Van Jefferson. It's certainly possible that they screwed up and misjudged what Robinson had left in the tank, but the Ram's talent evaluators clearly thought Kupp >>>>>>> Jefferson.

 

[knockoutking]

Back in my day there used to be this thing called 3rd year WR breakout. I guess the hip thing nowadays is to tie your wagon to a 9th year journeyman WR and throw your hands up in the air when he can't seperate. Why try to fix your team?

Let's just ignore the younger player with less injuries, more recent production, and more chemistry with the QB...

journeyman is a bad tag to give the guy...

• drafted in 2nd rd by JAX, played out his rookie contract.
• signed a 3 year $42m deal with CHI, played out that contract. then got franchise tagged.
• signed a 3 year, $46.5m deal with the Rams.

also the stats you shared too aren't really apples to apples. Jefferson played in 17 games last year. Robinson played in 12 due to injury + COVID. of course Jefferson should have more yards and catches.

• Robinson's 17 game average with Chicago across 4 years was 87 catches for 1062 yards.
• Robinson 2 year average (2020 and 2021) for 17 game average: 85 catches, 1008 yards.
• Robinson's 17 game average for 2021 (when he just played in 11 games) would have been 58.7 catches for 633.6 yards.

his first 3 years as a Bear: averaged 8.8 targets / game. his last year with the bears? averaged 5.5. sure a strange move to franchise a dude, then remove 3.3 targets/game from him, but whatever.

at the end of the day if front office + coaching staff thought that Jefferson was as good or better, wouldn't they have spent the 30m guaranteed / 46m contract literally anywhere else? they looked at Van Jefferson and decided to guarantee 30m to Robinson.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

You're holding onto production from TWO-THREE SEASONS ago where he was a high volume receiver. Mind you, he averaged 100 catches during these "fantasy productive" seasons and had little competition for targets. I'm a big stat guy. Do you know how many times an NFL team has had TWO 100 catch / 1,000 yard receivers? It's happened 6 times in league history.

The 1995 Lions, 2000 Broncos, 2005 Cardinals, 2009 Colts, 2014 Broncos, and 2018 Steelers as the only receiving duos in #NFL history with 100 catches AND 1,000 yards each.


His YPC the last three years was 10.8, 12.3, and 11.7. In order for him to "produce" the way you're looking for him to produce, the Rams will need to be the 7th team in NFL history to have a two receivers over 100 catches and 1,000 yards.


Between you and me, I think it's more likely that as this player AGES we see him fall more in line with his OTHER seasons and not the seasons where he caught 100 balls. He's getting old, is not the #1 option, and that's fine. At this point he needs volume to eclipse 1,000. As he gets older, his ability to separate diminishes.

Year	Team	REC	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	ATT	YDS	AVG
2022	Rams	1	12	12.0	12	0	0	0	-
2021	Bears	38	410	10.8	39	1	0	0	-
2020	Bears	102	1,250	12.3	42	6	1	-1	-1.0
2019	Bears	98	1,147	11.7	49	7	1	2	2.0
2018	Bears	55	754	13.7	43	4	1	9	9.0
2017	Jaguars	1	17	17.0	17	0	0	0	-
2016	Jaguars	73	883	12.1	42	6	0	0	-
2015	Jaguars	80	1,400	17.5	90	14	0	0	-
2014	Jaguars	48	548	11.4	54	2	0	0	-

 

[Stuart Ullman]

rather have Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, or Allen Robinson it would have been a landslide for Robinson. After 1 game of bad tape, I imagine that everyone would rather have those two guys

You honestly think everyone would rather have Jefferson than Robinson on their fantasy team now? JFC.

The YOUNGER WR who has shown chemistry with Stafford? I don't see why it's a stretch.

The NFL stands for "not for long". It's not like Allen Robinson was a 1st round pick. He has just as much pedigree as Jefferson.


This is Robinson's 9TH season.
This is Van Jefferson's 3RD season.



I don't see why this is a stretch. Jefferson had TWICE as many yards as Robinson last year:

2021 Allen Robinson: 38 catches / 410 yards / 1 TD
2021 Van Jefferson: 50 catches / 802 yards / 6 TD



Just because you are sleeping on Van Jefferson doesn't make my statement less true. He's younger. He has more chemistry with Stafford. He is playing for his first big boy contract. He nearly doubled Allen Robinson's production from last season.

Jefferson had 6 TD and 800 yards last season.
Robinson only has 4 seasons out of 9 where he had more TDs and yards than Van Jefferson had last season.



Back in my day there used to be this thing called 3rd year WR breakout. I guess the hip thing nowadays is to tie your wagon to a 9th year journeyman WR and throw your hands up in the air when he can't seperate. Why try to fix your team?

Let's just ignore the younger player with less injuries, more recent production, and more chemistry with the QB...

The Rams knew all those facts during the offseason, and went out and gave Allan Robinson a guaranteed $31 million to come play in front of Van Jefferson. It's certainly possible that they screwed up and misjudged what Robinson had left in the tank, but the Ram's talent evaluators clearly thought Kupp >>>>>>> Jefferson.

1.) I can give you a list of WR busts off the top of my head that got paid the bag only to stink it up. Kenny Golladay, Robert Meachem, Javon Walker, etc.
2.) After losing Odell Beckham to an ACL injury, it would have been irresponsible for the Rams to not add "anybody".

 

[Manster]

Not worried yet, in general about the Rams......the Bills were clearly sharper and looked in mid season form. Mcvay will rally the troops after an off game.

As for Arob.......pretty piss poor showing.....the garbage time TD chance to end was pathetic! He let some scrub DB have position and didn't fight for the ball. I think that's what Stafford was squwakin to the coach about right after.....you gotta question the guys competitiveness.......I guarantee Kupp comes down with that pass.

I now feel pretty good that I got zero shares of ARob, even though I wanted some......I got Kupp in 3 of 4 leagues....dude is just a beast!

 

[menobrown]

I'm surprised he fell to 7.10 in any draft BEFORE last night. Amazing that 12 guys were all out on him at that point

Sorry was a typo I had corrected a few minutes ago. The latest he had gone was 4.10.

I'm worried but would still jump on him in the 5th. Rams won't suck all season. Unfortunately

No they won't but them sucking should be good for WR's. Yes he'll be better but that's not saying much. Stafford's comments don't make me feel any better, so I should only start Robinson when I somehow know the team is playing man to man?

Just in terms of other WR's available I'd not touch him until the 7th+ round range myself.

 

[menobrown]

but the Ram's talent evaluators clearly thought Kupp >>>>>>> Jefferson.

I'm not sure what that even means but their talent evaluators chose Tutu Atwell and Van Jefferson higher in the draft then they chose Kupp. Win some, lose some.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

To reiterate on his diminishing YPC:

2021: 10.8 YPC
2020: 12.3 YPC
2019: 11.7 YPC


At 10.8 YPC he would need to catch 93 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.
At 12.3 YPC he would need to catch 81 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.
At 11.7 YPC he would need to catch 85 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.



Not saying it's not possible but after going 1/12/0 Week 1. He'll need to catch between 5.25 to 5.75 passes a game in order to reach 1,000 yards by the end of the season and that's giving him the benefit of the 17 game schedule. Back in my day, 1,000 yards in 16 games or less was the barometer.



ODB when playing with the RAMS caught 1,2,5,2,2,5 passes a game as a Ram last year (2.83 catches per game).
Van Jefferson caught 2,1,4,6,1,3,4,3,3,3,3,6,2,2,1,4,2 passes a game as a Ram last year (2.94 catches per game).
Robert Woods caught 3,5,3,4,12,2,6,3,7 passes a game as a Ram last year (5 catches per game).



The ROLE you're looking for Allen Robinson to play doesn't exist in this offense and the PRODUCTION you're chasing he hasn't put up in 2-3 seasons.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Also, go ahead and compound the fact that many people are saying Stafford's arm looks like a noodle and the outlook of improving his YPC becomes even more grim...

 

[efactor]

Not worried yet, in general about the Rams......the Bills were clearly sharper and looked in mid season form. Mcvay will rally the troops after an off game.

As for Arob.......pretty piss poor showing.....the garbage time TD chance to end was pathetic! He let some scrub DB have position and didn't fight for the ball. I think that's what Stafford was squwakin to the coach about right after.....you gotta question the guys competitiveness.......I guarantee Kupp comes down with that pass.

I now feel pretty good that I got zero shares of ARob, even though I wanted some......I got Kupp in 3 of 4 leagues....dude is just a beast!

Stafford sucked last night and shouldn't have squaked about anyone else. After your comment, I went back and looked at the last play. The DB had good position and Stafford didn't really give him a chance to go get it. Not Robinson's fault.

He had two targets all night while stone hands Higbee got 11 and WR nobody got 6. I know they haven't been able to work together much due to Staffords injury and that probably played into last nights performance.

 

[[icon]]

To reiterate on his diminishing YPC:

2021: 10.8 YPC
2020: 12.3 YPC
2019: 11.7 YPC


At 10.8 YPC he would need to catch 93 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.
At 12.3 YPC he would need to catch 81 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.
At 11.7 YPC he would need to catch 85 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.



Not saying it's not possible but after going 1/12/0 Week 1. He'll need to catch between 5.25 to 5.75 passes a game in order to reach 1,000 yards by the end of the season and that's giving him the benefit of the 17 game schedule. Back in my day, 1,000 yards in 16 games or less was the barometer.



ODB when playing with the RAMS caught 1,2,5,2,2,5 passes a game as a Ram last year (2.83 catches per game).
Van Jefferson caught 2,1,4,6,1,3,4,3,3,3,3,6,2,2,1,4,2 passes a game as a Ram last year (2.94 catches per game).
Robert Woods caught 3,5,3,4,12,2,6,3,7 passes a game as a Ram last year (5 catches per game).



The ROLE you're looking for Allen Robinson to play doesn't exist in this offense and the PRODUCTION you're chasing he hasn't put up in 2-3 seasons.

This is some pretty sloppy cherry picking.

It's almost like there were other other factors at play that could have impacted his production dip last year.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

To reiterate on his diminishing YPC:

2021: 10.8 YPC
2020: 12.3 YPC
2019: 11.7 YPC


At 10.8 YPC he would need to catch 93 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.
At 12.3 YPC he would need to catch 81 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.
At 11.7 YPC he would need to catch 85 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.



Not saying it's not possible but after going 1/12/0 Week 1. He'll need to catch between 5.25 to 5.75 passes a game in order to reach 1,000 yards by the end of the season and that's giving him the benefit of the 17 game schedule. Back in my day, 1,000 yards in 16 games or less was the barometer.



ODB when playing with the RAMS caught 1,2,5,2,2,5 passes a game as a Ram last year (2.83 catches per game).
Van Jefferson caught 2,1,4,6,1,3,4,3,3,3,3,6,2,2,1,4,2 passes a game as a Ram last year (2.94 catches per game).
Robert Woods caught 3,5,3,4,12,2,6,3,7 passes a game as a Ram last year (5 catches per game).



The ROLE you're looking for Allen Robinson to play doesn't exist in this offense and the PRODUCTION you're chasing he hasn't put up in 2-3 seasons.

This is some pretty sloppy cherry picking.

It's almost like there were other other factors at play that could have impacted his production dip last year.

Cherry picking? I used stats from his last 3 seasons and then compared his stats to receivers last year in the same offense as he is in now with the same Quarterback. I don't think my analysis could have been more specific.

Cherry picking implies I am excluding stats. What stats am I excluding? I included 2 of his 3 1,000 yard seasons in my analysis. You want me to dig further back when he was a Jaguar 5+ years ago on a completely different team PRIOR to him tearing his ACL.



I'm just trying to understand what part of this was cherry picking. Typically that is reserved for when people do the silly, "if you take away his big 50 yard run he only averages 3.5 YPC". Any additional stats you were include besides his 1,400 yard season from 7 YEARS AGO before he tore his ACL make his case look worse.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

An irrational amount of love for a player who has only gone over 1,000 yards three-times in 8 seasons. It was a great NFL comeback story coming off the ACL injury he suffered 5 YEARS AGO. But as we know, this is a young man's league...

 

[SoBeDad]

Robinson had a PFF grade over 80 four times, in 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2020 with an impressive 88.4 grade.

And from Ramswire:

>>No wide receiver in the NFL has more contested catches than Robinson since 2018. He’s pulled in 71 contested catches in that span, consistently making tough grabs in tight coverage. It shows how physical he is and how strong his hands are.

This aspect of Robinson’s game will be an asset for the Rams this season and in the years to come, giving them another player who can make catches in traffic.


With as many contested catches as Robinson has made over the years, he doesn’t drop anything – even as difficult as some of the grabs are. Since 2019, Robinson has only dropped six of his 369 targets. Last season, he only had two total, and they both came in the first two weeks of the year.

Robinson can be trusted to catch just about everything within reach. That’s reassuring for a quarterback, giving him the confidence to consistently target Robinson at all levels of the field.

Despite being a big, physical receiver who routinely makes difficult catches downfield look easy, the Bears chose to use Robinson like he was limited to shorter routes. He ran hitches more than 20% of the time, while his go-route usage was way below average, as seen on this chart.

He’s great on go routes and corners, too, with an above-average success rate on both routes. Yet, he didn’t run many of those patterns compared to other receivers. McVay knows how to get the most out of his receivers and he’ll figure out a way to best use his new weapon.<<

 

[VikingFrog]

Obviously satire, but this gave me a chuckle.

https://twitter.com/fantasygazette_/status/1568247117080330242?s=42&t=MTYAs-XYOGrIevWXULw6wQ

 

[Capella]

It's not like Allen Robinson was a 1st round pick. He has just as much pedigree as Jefferson.

Y’all just saying anything now lol.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

It's not like Allen Robinson was a 1st round pick. He has just as much pedigree as Jefferson.

Y’all just saying anything now lol.

Bro, have fun with your WR that has only eclipsed 1,000 yards in 3 of 8 seasons. I don't need to argue anything else beyond that. Have fun with your dud, I'm just trying to help out.

 

[Chaka]

A lot of folks think Hunter Renfrow will be Welker 2.0 in 2022 because he lines up as the SWR for Josh McDaniels but it's not a guarantee. Different players do different things and they don't always work on every team they and with.

Exactly! He'll be better than Welker ever was in New England!

Strap 'em up; it's GO TIME!!!

 

[Stuart Ullman]

62.5% of the time Allen Robinson was drafted he was a bust. Surely in his 9TH SEASON you're going to get lucky on that 37.5% of the time where he's not, except in the three seasons he actually had 1,000 yards:

1.) He lead his team in targets. Which won't be happening this year.
2.) One of his three 1,000 yard seasons was 7 years ago BEFORE he tore his ACL.



And we all know that NFL players get BETTER with age, right? Their stats don't decline, no no players get better and stay healthier as they get older. Especially ones with prior ACL tears. The article is old but if you can't present current data to dispute it then this is the best we have:

Second ACL injuries six times more likely after reconstruction, study finds

Anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) surgery is a common knee injury procedure, but the overall incidence rate of having to go through it again within 24 months is six times greater than someone who has never had an ACL tear, according to researchers.

www.sciencedaily.com

Athletes who tear an ACL are 6-times more likely to tear it again than a player who has never torn theirs. Ask Odell Beckham if he thinks this statistic is true.

 

[Capella]

It's not like Allen Robinson was a 1st round pick. He has just as much pedigree as Jefferson.

Y’all just saying anything now lol.

Bro, have fun with your WR that has only eclipsed 1,000 yards in 3 of 8 seasons. I don't need to argue anything else beyond that. Have fun with your dud, I'm just trying to help out.

Wow you’re trying to help out after a horrible performance that 30M people witnessed? Can I pay you for this timely analysis.

 

[coachjim]

Robinson had a PFF grade over 80 four times, in 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2020 with an impressive 88.4 grade.

And from Ramswire:

>>No wide receiver in the NFL has more contested catches than Robinson since 2018. He’s pulled in 71 contested catches in that span, consistently making tough grabs in tight coverage. It shows how physical he is and how strong his hands are.

This aspect of Robinson’s game will be an asset for the Rams this season and in the years to come, giving them another player who can make catches in traffic.


With as many contested catches as Robinson has made over the years, he doesn’t drop anything – even as difficult as some of the grabs are. Since 2019, Robinson has only dropped six of his 369 targets. Last season, he only had two total, and they both came in the first two weeks of the year.

Robinson can be trusted to catch just about everything within reach. That’s reassuring for a quarterback, giving him the confidence to consistently target Robinson at all levels of the field.

Despite being a big, physical receiver who routinely makes difficult catches downfield look easy, the Bears chose to use Robinson like he was limited to shorter routes. He ran hitches more than 20% of the time, while his go-route usage was way below average, as seen on this chart.

He’s great on go routes and corners, too, with an above-average success rate on both routes. Yet, he didn’t run many of those patterns compared to other receivers. McVay knows how to get the most out of his receivers and he’ll figure out a way to best use his new weapon.<<

The problem is not Robinson. Stafford just locks onto Kupp and just about every pass play. I had Woods last year until he was hurt. and it was agonizing to see Woods wide open and Stafford force it into Kupp. The only game Woods got any looks is when he made a big deal in an interview about not getting any looks. The nest week he was on fire. It lasted 1 week.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

It's not like Allen Robinson was a 1st round pick. He has just as much pedigree as Jefferson.

Y’all just saying anything now lol.

Bro, have fun with your WR that has only eclipsed 1,000 yards in 3 of 8 seasons. I don't need to argue anything else beyond that. Have fun with your dud, I'm just trying to help out.

Wow you’re trying to help out after a horrible performance that 30M people witnessed? Can I pay you for this timely analysis.

I am discussing a player on fantasy football website no different than you and hundreds of other people have done today... thanks for singling me out though because you're intimidated by me.

 

[[icon]]

To reiterate on his diminishing YPC:

2021: 10.8 YPC
2020: 12.3 YPC
2019: 11.7 YPC


At 10.8 YPC he would need to catch 93 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.
At 12.3 YPC he would need to catch 81 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.
At 11.7 YPC he would need to catch 85 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.



Not saying it's not possible but after going 1/12/0 Week 1. He'll need to catch between 5.25 to 5.75 passes a game in order to reach 1,000 yards by the end of the season and that's giving him the benefit of the 17 game schedule. Back in my day, 1,000 yards in 16 games or less was the barometer.



ODB when playing with the RAMS caught 1,2,5,2,2,5 passes a game as a Ram last year (2.83 catches per game).
Van Jefferson caught 2,1,4,6,1,3,4,3,3,3,3,6,2,2,1,4,2 passes a game as a Ram last year (2.94 catches per game).
Robert Woods caught 3,5,3,4,12,2,6,3,7 passes a game as a Ram last year (5 catches per game).



The ROLE you're looking for Allen Robinson to play doesn't exist in this offense and the PRODUCTION you're chasing he hasn't put up in 2-3 seasons.

This is some pretty sloppy cherry picking.

It's almost like there were other other factors at play that could have impacted his production dip last year.

Cherry picking? I used stats from his last 3 seasons and then compared his stats to receivers last year in the same offense as he is in now with the same Quarterback. I don't think my analysis could have been more specific.

Cherry picking implies I am excluding stats. What stats am I excluding? I included 2 of his 3 1,000 yard seasons in my analysis. You want me to dig further back when he was a Jaguar 5+ years ago on a completely different team PRIOR to him tearing his ACL.



I'm just trying to understand what part of this was cherry picking. Typically that is reserved for when people do the silly, "if you take away his big 50 yard run he only averages 3.5 YPC". Any additional stats you were include besides his 1,400 yard season from 7 YEARS AGO before he tore his ACL make his case look worse.

So to be clear.... you think 2021 is an apples to apples comparison with 2019/20 seasons?

 

[Stuart Ullman]

I got one more fun statistic for you, before the Fantasy Football Police come and lock me up. Below are Matt Stafford's leading receivers for every year he has played in the NFL, which is 14 seasons at this point. In those 14 seasons, he was able to create two-fantasy relevant receivers TWICE in 14 years. 2014 and 2017. AKA something that happened 8 and 5 years ago, respectively.


If you want to hitch your wagon to a WR like Robinson who is aging and seeing his YPC decline and think he's the player that is going to turn the clock back 5 - 8 years , good luck with that. Despite the fact that both the QB and WR in question are both 5 - 8 years older than they were back then. It's happened 2 / 14 times (14.2%) of the time. If you want to bank on that type of occurrence happening for your WR2 or WR3 spot, you won't be finding yourself in the fantasy playoffs let alone winning a championship.


2009
984
415


2010
1120
722


2011
1681
777


2012
1964
567


2013
1492
506


2014
1331
1077



2015
1214
813


2016
1077
584


2017
1003
1101



2018
1063
508


2019
1190
779


2020
978
723


2021
1947
802

 

[Shawnky]

It's not like Allen Robinson was a 1st round pick. He has just as much pedigree as Jefferson.

Y’all just saying anything now lol.

Bro, have fun with your WR that has only eclipsed 1,000 yards in 3 of 8 seasons. I don't need to argue anything else beyond that. Have fun with your dud, I'm just trying to help out.

JFC. Move on. You don’t like him. We get it. I’m confident he’ll end up a WR2 by end of the season. Not sure if anyone is expecting more that that. Bust is a bit much. Dud is a bit much after 1 game where Stafford looked like crap. Your analysis is as wrong as your claim in the Michael Thomas thread that he hasn’t played a full season in 3 years. It’s actually 2. He broke records 3 years ago.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

To reiterate on his diminishing YPC:

2021: 10.8 YPC
2020: 12.3 YPC
2019: 11.7 YPC


At 10.8 YPC he would need to catch 93 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.
At 12.3 YPC he would need to catch 81 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.
At 11.7 YPC he would need to catch 85 PASSES which would be the 3rd most in his career to reach 1,000 yards.



Not saying it's not possible but after going 1/12/0 Week 1. He'll need to catch between 5.25 to 5.75 passes a game in order to reach 1,000 yards by the end of the season and that's giving him the benefit of the 17 game schedule. Back in my day, 1,000 yards in 16 games or less was the barometer.



ODB when playing with the RAMS caught 1,2,5,2,2,5 passes a game as a Ram last year (2.83 catches per game).
Van Jefferson caught 2,1,4,6,1,3,4,3,3,3,3,6,2,2,1,4,2 passes a game as a Ram last year (2.94 catches per game).
Robert Woods caught 3,5,3,4,12,2,6,3,7 passes a game as a Ram last year (5 catches per game).



The ROLE you're looking for Allen Robinson to play doesn't exist in this offense and the PRODUCTION you're chasing he hasn't put up in 2-3 seasons.

This is some pretty sloppy cherry picking.

It's almost like there were other other factors at play that could have impacted his production dip last year.

Cherry picking? I used stats from his last 3 seasons and then compared his stats to receivers last year in the same offense as he is in now with the same Quarterback. I don't think my analysis could have been more specific.

Cherry picking implies I am excluding stats. What stats am I excluding? I included 2 of his 3 1,000 yard seasons in my analysis. You want me to dig further back when he was a Jaguar 5+ years ago on a completely different team PRIOR to him tearing his ACL.



I'm just trying to understand what part of this was cherry picking. Typically that is reserved for when people do the silly, "if you take away his big 50 yard run he only averages 3.5 YPC". Any additional stats you were include besides his 1,400 yard season from 7 YEARS AGO before he tore his ACL make his case look worse.

So to be clear.... you think 2021 is an apples to apples comparison with 2019/20 seasons?

I don't know what this means. What I said, is what I said. He'll need 90 to 100 catches to produce the way he did in Chicago. Either that or he'll need to drastically improve his YPC which aging WRs rarely do. I handle each situation and season as unique.


I don't get the argument as to WHY people think he's in for a good year. Give me one good reason WHY we think this cat has a good season? He's clearly the WR2 in an offense that could barely sustain a WR2 for the majority of the year last season. He's previously torn his ACL. He stunk last year and has only eclipsed 1,000 yards in 3 of 8 seasons.


I am giving you reasons and statistics to suggest why this guy is not going to have the year groupthink says he will. Give me 1 reason why we should be bullish on this guy? Don't nitpick my arguments. Just give me 1 good reason why this guy should be fantasy relevant. He's not the lead dog and he's only getting older.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

It's not like Allen Robinson was a 1st round pick. He has just as much pedigree as Jefferson.

Y’all just saying anything now lol.

Bro, have fun with your WR that has only eclipsed 1,000 yards in 3 of 8 seasons. I don't need to argue anything else beyond that. Have fun with your dud, I'm just trying to help out.

JFC. Move on. You don’t like him. We get it. I’m confident he’ll end up a WR2 by end of the season. Not sure if anyone is expecting more that that. Bust is a bit much. Dud is a bit much after 1 game where Stafford looked like crap. Your analysis is as wrong as your claim in the Michael Thomas thread that he hasn’t played a full season in 3 years. It’s actually 2. He broke records 3 years ago.

No, I won't move on. People are nitpicking the silliest comments. Sorry for my typo, lol. You ever notice how the number 2 and number 3 are next to each other on the keyboard? Give me one reason why you expect this guy to be fantasy relevant this year. Don't nitpick my arguments. Defend yours. Why should anyone expect this guy to produce?

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Anybody is free to play. Give me one reason this guy will have a fantasy relevant season. He was "supposed" to have a fantasy relevant season last year and didn't. So I'm not getting it. I could be wrong, please explain why we like him this year?

 

[FairWarning]

rather have Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, or Allen Robinson it would have been a landslide for Robinson. After 1 game of bad tape, I imagine that everyone would rather have those two guys

You honestly think everyone would rather have Jefferson than Robinson on their fantasy team now? JFC.

The YOUNGER WR who has shown chemistry with Stafford? I don't see why it's a stretch.

The NFL stands for "not for long". It's not like Allen Robinson was a 1st round pick. He has just as much pedigree as Jefferson.


This is Robinson's 9TH season.
This is Van Jefferson's 3RD season.



I don't see why this is a stretch. Jefferson had TWICE as many yards as Robinson last year:

2021 Allen Robinson: 38 catches / 410 yards / 1 TD
2021 Van Jefferson: 50 catches / 802 yards / 6 TD



Just because you are sleeping on Van Jefferson doesn't make my statement less true. He's younger. He has more chemistry with Stafford. He is playing for his first big boy contract. He nearly doubled Allen Robinson's production from last season.

Jefferson had 6 TD and 800 yards last season.
Robinson only has 4 seasons out of 9 where he had more TDs and yards than Van Jefferson had last season.



Back in my day there used to be this thing called 3rd year WR breakout. I guess the hip thing nowadays is to tie your wagon to a 9th year journeyman WR and throw your hands up in the air when he can't seperate. Why try to fix your team?

Let's just ignore the younger player with less injuries, more recent production, and more chemistry with the QB...

The Rams knew all those facts during the offseason, and went out and gave Allan Robinson a guaranteed $31 million to come play in front of Van Jefferson. It's certainly possible that they screwed up and misjudged what Robinson had left in the tank, but the Ram's talent evaluators clearly thought Kupp >>>>>>> Jefferson.

1.) I can give you a list of WR busts off the top of my head that got paid the bag only to stink it up. Kenny Golladay, Robert Meachem, Javon Walker, etc.
2.) After losing Odell Beckham to an ACL injury, it would have been irresponsible for the Rams to not add "anybody".

I'm always leery of WR's signing big deals with new teams.

 

[FairWarning]

Anybody is free to play. Give me one reason this guy will have a fantasy relevant season. He was "supposed" to have a fantasy relevant season last year and didn't. So I'm not getting it. I could be wrong, please explain why we like him this year?

People liked him because he is on a far better team with a better qb.

 

[Deamon]

rather have Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, or Allen Robinson it would have been a landslide for Robinson. After 1 game of bad tape, I imagine that everyone would rather have those two guys

You honestly think everyone would rather have Jefferson than Robinson on their fantasy team now? JFC.

The YOUNGER WR who has shown chemistry with Stafford? I don't see why it's a stretch.

The NFL stands for "not for long". It's not like Allen Robinson was a 1st round pick. He has just as much pedigree as Jefferson.


This is Robinson's 9TH season.
This is Van Jefferson's 3RD season.



I don't see why this is a stretch. Jefferson had TWICE as many yards as Robinson last year:

2021 Allen Robinson: 38 catches / 410 yards / 1 TD
2021 Van Jefferson: 50 catches / 802 yards / 6 TD



Just because you are sleeping on Van Jefferson doesn't make my statement less true. He's younger. He has more chemistry with Stafford. He is playing for his first big boy contract. He nearly doubled Allen Robinson's production from last season.

Jefferson had 6 TD and 800 yards last season.
Robinson only has 4 seasons out of 9 where he had more TDs and yards than Van Jefferson had last season.



Back in my day there used to be this thing called 3rd year WR breakout. I guess the hip thing nowadays is to tie your wagon to a 9th year journeyman WR and throw your hands up in the air when he can't seperate. Why try to fix your team?

Let's just ignore the younger player with less injuries, more recent production, and more chemistry with the QB...

So if you owned Arob in a league, and Jefferson was available, you'd drop Arob for Jefferson this weekend on waivers? Promise?

 

[cdclopper]

One reason, Stafford is the best qb he's ever played with. Second reason, McVay is the best coach he ever played for. The Rams are the best team hes played on

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Anybody is free to play. Give me one reason this guy will have a fantasy relevant season. He was "supposed" to have a fantasy relevant season last year and didn't. So I'm not getting it. I could be wrong, please explain why we like him this year?

People liked him because he is on a far better team with a better qb.

Which makes sense on paper, except his target share situation got worse and his only productive years he lead his team in targets.

Was a high volume guy on a crappy team. Now he's a moderate volume guy on a great team. Less targets at his recent YPC suggests a decrease in production.

rather have Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, or Allen Robinson it would have been a landslide for Robinson. After 1 game of bad tape, I imagine that everyone would rather have those two guys

You honestly think everyone would rather have Jefferson than Robinson on their fantasy team now? JFC.

The YOUNGER WR who has shown chemistry with Stafford? I don't see why it's a stretch.

The NFL stands for "not for long". It's not like Allen Robinson was a 1st round pick. He has just as much pedigree as Jefferson.


This is Robinson's 9TH season.
This is Van Jefferson's 3RD season.



I don't see why this is a stretch. Jefferson had TWICE as many yards as Robinson last year:

2021 Allen Robinson: 38 catches / 410 yards / 1 TD
2021 Van Jefferson: 50 catches / 802 yards / 6 TD



Just because you are sleeping on Van Jefferson doesn't make my statement less true. He's younger. He has more chemistry with Stafford. He is playing for his first big boy contract. He nearly doubled Allen Robinson's production from last season.

Jefferson had 6 TD and 800 yards last season.
Robinson only has 4 seasons out of 9 where he had more TDs and yards than Van Jefferson had last season.



Back in my day there used to be this thing called 3rd year WR breakout. I guess the hip thing nowadays is to tie your wagon to a 9th year journeyman WR and throw your hands up in the air when he can't seperate. Why try to fix your team?

Let's just ignore the younger player with less injuries, more recent production, and more chemistry with the QB...

So if you owned Arob in a league, and Jefferson was available, you'd drop Arob for Jefferson this weekend on waivers? Promise?

I would be willing to bet you $250 that Van Jefferson ends the season with more yards than Allen Robinson.

I don't A Robinson but I'll gladly try to acquire Van Jefferson. I've seen this song and dance before, give me the young legs that haven't been paid.

 

[foxco]

I still like him this season, but if he puts up numbers similar to last night for the next 16 weeks I'm gonna start to have reservations.

 

[Deamon]

I would be willing to bet you $250 that Van Jefferson ends the season with more yards than Allen Robinson.

Damn, you're gonna get a lot of takers for this. How do we set this up?

 

[Stuart Ullman]

One reason, Stafford is the best qb he's ever played with. Second reason, McVay is the best coach he ever played for. The Rams are the best team hes played on

This makes sense on paper. But better team is not necessarily correlated to higher production.

Different sport but when Kevin Durant joined the GSW everyone's production dropped but the team got better. Robinson is on a better team with a better QB but is no longer the best WR or target dominator he was on the old team.



Part of it too is how dominate Cooper is. The guy caught 13 passes last night. That eats into everybody else's production. If Robinson can prove he can score TDs like Beckham did last year he COULD have value.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

I would be willing to bet you $250 that Van Jefferson ends the season with more yards than Allen Robinson.

Damn, you're gonna get a lot of takers for this. How do we set this up?

Please call 778-330-2389. My assistant Suzie will setup for the money to be put in escrow so nobody gets burned. I'll never give you up, Deamon.