Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Why? Because of one bad game with the 3rd-string QB?
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WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter Mr. Irrelevant
- Start date
He has 8 catches in 3 games with that QB, who is playing just as well as their others and may be the starter next year. Even if he's not, it's not like the QB situation is going to improve, it could actually get worse if it's Lance.
As the #1 WR with Deebo out, 2 catches for 19 yards on 4 targets with a drop isn't just bad, it's awful. He's been propped up by the TDs, which can be fluky (and one of his came from McCaffrey). He's averaging a little over 4 catches for a little over 55 yards on a little over 6 targets per game, and his season high in yardage is 84.
Not sure how much of it is him vs. the offense, but either way it's hard to get too excited about him there.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Seems like it is mostly the offense. They force fed CM the ball last night. Aiyuk has been the 4th option (at best) much of the year. Boom-bust. If his name was Gabe Davis people would go nuts over him.
Yeah, that's what I'm saying. If he's the 4th option in a mediocre passing offense then we can't expect him to be a very good FF WR. Last night at least he had the chance to be the #2 or #3 option and stunk up the joint. Since the offense isn't changing, neither are his prospects.
Chaka
Footballguy
It was a comfortable blow out, no one should be surprised they protected their rookie Mr. Irrelevant QB. With that defense they have that luxury.
You were right, and a little wrong, in your first quoted post above. He is limited but it's not because of the offense, it's because of the defense.
Let's see what happens when they face a real challenge in a tight game.
joey
Footballguy
I traded him away for a 2023 2nd earlier this year and thought I got good/fair deal…but then that team went on a run and is in the playoffs, so it’s a late 2nd. Since I’ve traded him in week 5 or 6, he’s scored 28, 16, 20, 12, 16, 11, 10, 14, and 3.9 last night (ppr). I’d say he’s been pretty consistent this year to give you an average of 15 points or so. That said, I don’t regret trading him away since I don’t trust him. But I probably sold a little low in a vacuum.
It's all intertwined, the defense impacts the offense and it certainly doesn't seem like he's good enough to put up numbers with less than favorable circumstances. Those circumstances don't seem likely to change anytime soon, so seems he'll remain a low floor/modest upside WR for the foreseeable future.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
A fair take all around. Despite all that, he actually looks good. From a dynasty perspective, I like him. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him leave for greener pastures eventually. Seems like a decent buy low.
efactor
Footballguy
Actually, it was a lock.
NFL @NFL
"You can't cover that man in a phone booth right now."
Deebo likes what he's seeing from Brandon Aiyuk this offseason.(via @NBCS49ers)
@19problemz | @THE2ERA | @49ers
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
"Top 5 NFL" vs "Top 5 fantasy WR" different things.
Paraphrasing Harmon- elite true X, man separator that the system relies on to keep everything else clicking in SF. If he ever gets the opportunity like Diggs to be paired with elite QB play and volume, look out.
Until then, he's stuck in a low volume system with other top tier pass catchers so won't likely break out in ff until something changes.
Paraphrasing Harmon- elite true X, man separator that the system relies on to keep everything else clicking in SF. If he ever gets the opportunity like Diggs to be paired with elite QB play and volume, look out.
Until then, he's stuck in a low volume system with other top tier pass catchers so won't likely break out in ff until something changes.
Interesting thing I noticed when Deebo was out last year, CMC was the #1 RB in fantasy, Kittle was the #1 TE in fantasy, and Aiyuk barely improved. Small sample size, but it does make me wonder if Aiyuk truly has high end talent, or if he's currently in the perfect role for his skill set. Like, if he was the unquestioned #1 somewhere if he'd be more along the lines of guys like Cooper or McLaurin than somebody like Diggs or AJ Brown.
jm192
Footballguy
I like the talent. Is he going to be able to generate enough volume in this SF offense to be good for fantasy most weeks? I'm just not sure.
There's so many mouths to feed in this offense and I'm not sure Brock Purdy is going to consistently keep them all fed.
Current underdog ADP has him around 51. I'm just not paying that price for a guy that has to compete so much for targets.
There's so many mouths to feed in this offense and I'm not sure Brock Purdy is going to consistently keep them all fed.
Current underdog ADP has him around 51. I'm just not paying that price for a guy that has to compete so much for targets.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Love the talent, different story in a different offense. Upside is capped unless injuries occur.
TripItUp
Footballguy
could not agree more...is getting overdrafted in redraft because of his talent
I am convinced that if he was in the right offense he is a top wr in this league
ratbast
Footballguy
That’s an “if” that might be a good bet. Samuel, Kittle, and most of the RBs are pretty fragile. Unfortunately so are the qbs.
Not a lot of passes to go around in SF so his upside will always be limited.
-jb-
Footballguy
With the exception that Kittle, CMC and Deebo have a penchant for getting banged up.
Kittle missed 2 games last year but one was the monsoon game so hard to gauge the impact but those two games did not see an uptick. Deebo missed 4 games and partially played in another and it was not exactly a boon to Aiyuk.
A lot of different data points with 3 starting QB's, pre and post CMC trade, etc, etc. But nothing I've seen gives me comfort that targets won't be an issue for upside.
Obviously the formula is not ideal. Great D, strong running game, tons of weapons and a young QB that will likely be managed and might have arm limitations.
He arguably has the biggest disparity in the league between talent and situation.
Saying all that I made sure to get him on at least a few teams and his price right now is on par with his performance last year and by all accounts he's taken it up another level. He's super talented with a head coach in conversation for best play caller/designer in the game and he appears to be putting it a ton of work. Kyle has struck me as the kind of coach who rewards his studs who work hard and my hope is that he goes out of his way to design plays to get him the ball. Saw some signs of this last year, just hoping to see more.
I tried to convince myself a few weeks ago his situation was not that different then Devonta or AJB's and they are generally round 1/2 and 2/3 turn picks. Purdy's pass attempts per game are only about one less then Hurts, both teams with two top notch WR's and a stud TE. CMC and in general the way SF likes to use their RB's in the passing game and eating up some of those targets stopped me from trying to convince myself of this more then any difference in QB play. Still at a price tag of 4-5 rounds off those players for someone I think talent is on par is not a bad way to go IMO.
socrates
Footballguy
Since Shanahan took over as head coach of the 49'ers in 2017, here is where the team ranks in terms of pass attempts per season:
| 2017 | 2nd |
| 2018 | 20th |
| 2019 | 29th |
| 2020 | 16th |
| 2021 | 29th |
| 2022 | 26th |
In terms of scoring offense, the Niners have fared a bit better:
| 2017 | 19th |
| 2018 | 22nd |
| 2019 | 3rd |
| 2020 | 21st |
| 2021 | 15th |
| 2022 | 6th |
Keep in mind that Shanahan has been working during that time with a less-than-stellar cast at QB (and the same may be true yet again this season):
| 2017 | Brian Hoyer (6) / C. J. Beathard (5) / Jimmy Garoppolo (5) |
| 2018 | Nick Mullens (8) / C. J. Beathard (5) / Jimmy Garoppolo (3) |
| 2019 | Jimmy Garoppolo (16) |
| 2020 | Nick Mullens (8) / Jimmy Garoppolo (6) / C. J. Beathard (2) |
| 2021 | Jimmy Garoppolo (15) / Trey Lance (2) |
| 2022 | Jimmy Garoppolo (10) / Brock Purdy (5) / Trey Lance (2) |
I honestly think Shanahan plays pretty well to his personnel, but he has also drafted players to fit his offense, Trey Lance being the glaring exception. If Brock Purdy takes a step forward, we may see Shanahan lean a bit more on the passing game. Shanahan is an offensive coach. He tends to favor an outside zone scheme featuring versatile playmakers. Shanahan’s offense is typically near the bottom of the league in 11 personnel, while leading the way in 21 and 22 personnel. Brandon Aiyuk's ability to break tackles and generate yards after the catch makes him a good fit for Shanahan's system, along with Deebo, CMC, Kittle, and Juszczyk. Aiyuk is arguably a better athlete than Deebo, and he fits a different role in the offense. I think the two complement each other well in the offense.
Aiyuk had a breakout season in 2022. I believe he can repeat that success, and perhaps even improve slightly, but I think it is fair to exercise a bit of caution when projecting his upside. The Niners will rely on a stout defense and an offense that features CMC, for as long as he remains healthy and able to bear a heavy load.
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-jb-
Footballguy
To all of this, I agree...but will add one comment - Aiyuk finished WR15 in half PPR last year.
Exactly. Those guys all missed time last year (CMC only played in 11 regular season games with SF) and as you said, it didn't have any positive impact on Aiyuk's numbers when they were out.
It's a middle of the pack passing offense with several mouths to feed. It sounds like he's stepped up his game even more this offseason so I'm cautiously optimistic that he can improve a bit on his numbers from last year, but his talent level is greater than his upside in this offense.
Both of you are absolutely correct. There just isn't enough opportunity there
I only own him in one league and honestly it's on the hope he gets traded to the chiefs
I could be wrong here but I honestly think he is one of the best wrs in the league. He catches everything, consistently gets open and go downfield or run short routes. PFF has him at 81 and AJ Brown at 88
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Yeah I think volume is the primary concern. I drafted him as my WR4. Pretty optimistic, likely to be a good to great offense but probably a lot of running and short passing and you just wonder how much volume there'll be game to game and can your team handle the low weeks.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Depending on what role he plays on your fantasy team you should be happy to have him. Alas, he is the WR1 of the non-PPR dynasty team I adopted two years ago, and for the past two years I’ve been unable to upgrade from him. It’s been a frustrating experience. From him being in the Shanny doghouse for much of 2021 to him being a steady fantasy WR2 in the second half of 2022. They picked up his 5th year option so he’s stuck there at least through the next two seasons.
Volume is a major concern. I think he’s a legit talent but he’s not in a great situation. Plays for a franchise that has a dominant defense, leans heavily on the run and ranks among the fewest in pass attempts, and given how game script tends to go for a wagon like San Francisco, not a lot of shootout potential late in games. That’s all while having to compete for targets with the likes of McCaffrey, Kittle, and Samuel. Doesn’t get a ton of receptions or yards so you’re counting on touchdowns to make the difference and that’s always hard to predict. Fantasy WR3 who moves to fantasy WR2 if he’s getting 8 TDs like he did last year, and may not even count on that if Samuel is back to form.
Volume is a major concern. I think he’s a legit talent but he’s not in a great situation. Plays for a franchise that has a dominant defense, leans heavily on the run and ranks among the fewest in pass attempts, and given how game script tends to go for a wagon like San Francisco, not a lot of shootout potential late in games. That’s all while having to compete for targets with the likes of McCaffrey, Kittle, and Samuel. Doesn’t get a ton of receptions or yards so you’re counting on touchdowns to make the difference and that’s always hard to predict. Fantasy WR3 who moves to fantasy WR2 if he’s getting 8 TDs like he did last year, and may not even count on that if Samuel is back to form.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
He’s ranked low because his floor is pretty terrible and the ceiling is decent. Clear boom bust play with the average being a lower ECR ranking. Could do worse than a volatile wr3 like him
2 for 20 is basically wr80 on the week while 7-100-1 is wr5. Average it out…wr42 ranking (estimate). Equally likely outcomes. They just can’t get Aiyuk higher than higher floor guys with less risk at that range. I’m curious how him and cmc alone would do in the offense. He certainly benefits from having these talented guys around hi.
2 for 20 is basically wr80 on the week while 7-100-1 is wr5. Average it out…wr42 ranking (estimate). Equally likely outcomes. They just can’t get Aiyuk higher than higher floor guys with less risk at that range. I’m curious how him and cmc alone would do in the offense. He certainly benefits from having these talented guys around hi.
Stat Correction
Footballguy
Lost my two starting WR's, Kupp and Watson, before the season ever started. Now have Aiyuk and Flowers starting. Not optimistic, but we shall see.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Tearing. It. Up.
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