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WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (1 Viewer)

There's really no reason he shouldn't have 15 targets a game.
EXACTLY. Captain checkdown doesn't think so though. Even with Lawrence's early career struggles I'm drooling thinking about next year. Lawrence isn't afraid to throw deep, and he's not afraid to lock onto a receiver. Thomas is always open and a threat to take any touch the distance.
 
With Mac Jones! Captain checkdown himself, and Thomas is still going off. PLEASE all I want for Christmas is for Lawrence to realize his potential in 2025.

Lawrence better start realizing HIS OWN potential.
That's what I meant, what I thought I wrote.
OK. I read it as hoping hair boy recognizes BTJ's potential.

My bad. Carry on. :wink:
I'm pretty sure Stevie Wonder could see BTJ's potential. :wink:
 
With Mac Jones. Like I said. You need to pay through your nose in dynasty for this guy.
Is he up there with Nabers?
Easily in the same tier. They are different players, but if I had to choose right now I would choose Thomas Jr. Now, Nabers' route running and elite physical gifts are unquestioned, but the only real knock on Thomas Jr. was that he was raw and might initially struggle against NFL coverage. Almost from day 1, he's functioned as the team's #1 and has been facing the opposing team's best DB, getting double and tripled teamed all the while with terrible QB play, and he's still excelling. The one red flag that existed with him has been torched.

I don't want to get it twisted, I love Nabers too. If Sanders goes to NYG, Nabers could do absolutely special things. He hasn't even been able to show what he can do beyond 10 yards downfield. To me, Nabers is what Olave was always supposed to be. Thomas Jr. is Josh Gordon, you know, without all the drugs and stuff (I hope). He's a threat to score on every single play. Nabers possesses that kind of ability as well, he just hasn't gotten the opportunity to show it. If you can get Nabers at or below fair value from an impatient owner, do it! I think that ship has sailed with BTJ.

This is all just my opinion.
That’s certainly a legitimate opinion. I think I’d still take Nabers but the next jags HC and Giants QB will impact that. If Ben Johnson goes to Jax I’d have them very close.
Everyone here had BTjr as the 1.05 pick in non SF last year, right?
Pretty much. He was the 4th WR off the board in most dynasty drafts. If anyone would have known he would be able to attack all three levels in the NFL against zone or man though, where do you think he’d have gone? If we had do-overs, I would imagine Nabers, BTJ and Bowers would all see their fair share of top picks. All three look like can’t miss players at this point, but so far only BTJ has shown another gear to take it to the house from anywhere. I’d have a hard time passing on him.
I think he’d still be 5 in most leagues. Harrison would still go higher in many.
He went 5 in my non SF, 13th in my SF (I traded for the pick to get him) after the usual 4, 6 QBs, worthy and benson.

Last year’s draft might be the best in decades.
Maybe, but after watching him against NFL defenses, what are the concerns with him now? Pre-draft, it was that he needed to refine his route running, he was raw, had average YAC talent and doesn’t play physical.

After almost a year of watching him play, those concerns are laughable. Thomas Jr plays physical yet moves around like Ladd McConkey, yet he’s 6’3” and runs a 4.33! This guy is the closest thing I’ve seem to prime Josh Gordon since prime Josh Gordon.

Harrison Jr is playing like the player BTJ was reported to be.

I still like Chase and Jefferson more, but BTJ as a prospect isn’t far behind for me.
I am glad someone else sees Gordon.
 
With Mac Jones. Like I said. You need to pay through your nose in dynasty for this guy.
Is he up there with Nabers?
Easily in the same tier. They are different players, but if I had to choose right now I would choose Thomas Jr. Now, Nabers' route running and elite physical gifts are unquestioned, but the only real knock on Thomas Jr. was that he was raw and might initially struggle against NFL coverage. Almost from day 1, he's functioned as the team's #1 and has been facing the opposing team's best DB, getting double and tripled teamed all the while with terrible QB play, and he's still excelling. The one red flag that existed with him has been torched.

I don't want to get it twisted, I love Nabers too. If Sanders goes to NYG, Nabers could do absolutely special things. He hasn't even been able to show what he can do beyond 10 yards downfield. To me, Nabers is what Olave was always supposed to be. Thomas Jr. is Josh Gordon, you know, without all the drugs and stuff (I hope). He's a threat to score on every single play. Nabers possesses that kind of ability as well, he just hasn't gotten the opportunity to show it. If you can get Nabers at or below fair value from an impatient owner, do it! I think that ship has sailed with BTJ.

This is all just my opinion.
That’s certainly a legitimate opinion. I think I’d still take Nabers but the next jags HC and Giants QB will impact that. If Ben Johnson goes to Jax I’d have them very close.
Everyone here had BTjr as the 1.05 pick in non SF last year, right?
Pretty much. He was the 4th WR off the board in most dynasty drafts. If anyone would have known he would be able to attack all three levels in the NFL against zone or man though, where do you think he’d have gone? If we had do-overs, I would imagine Nabers, BTJ and Bowers would all see their fair share of top picks. All three look like can’t miss players at this point, but so far only BTJ has shown another gear to take it to the house from anywhere. I’d have a hard time passing on him.
I think he’d still be 5 in most leagues. Harrison would still go higher in many.
He went 5 in my non SF, 13th in my SF (I traded for the pick to get him) after the usual 4, 6 QBs, worthy and benson.

Last year’s draft might be the best in decades.
Maybe, but after watching him against NFL defenses, what are the concerns with him now? Pre-draft, it was that he needed to refine his route running, he was raw, had average YAC talent and doesn’t play physical.

After almost a year of watching him play, those concerns are laughable. Thomas Jr plays physical yet moves around like Ladd McConkey, yet he’s 6’3” and runs a 4.33! This guy is the closest thing I’ve seem to prime Josh Gordon since prime Josh Gordon.

Harrison Jr is playing like the player BTJ was reported to be.

I still like Chase and Jefferson more, but BTJ as a prospect isn’t far behind for me.
I am glad someone else sees Gordon.
Oh wow I can’t unsee the Josh Gordon-Brian Thomas comp now. How many rookie 1st round picks is he worth?
 
He feels close to untradable in a “it’d be dumb to sell him for less than it’d be dumb to give for him” kind of way.

If I had an MHJ I might try to swap off name value
 
Looks like he'll fall short of 100 today but still. Another excellent day. Easily my best draft pick this year in the 7th round.
 
The 33rd Team
Rookies in NFL history to have 1,100+ Receiving Yards and 10+ Receiving TDs:

- Brian Thomas Jr.
- Ja'Marr Chase
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Randy Moss

That's it
LSU, LSU, LSU, and Marshall
And JJ had 1400 and 7 a year before Chase’s rookie campaign. Nabers is just an honorary mention with 104, 1140 and 6 with a game to go. It’s extraordinary what that program is churning out at WR.
 
If I had an MHJ I might try to swap off name value

I would wish everyone who is trying to do that the best of luck. Why would you move this guy for MHJ? So you can spend your Sundays watching Kyler pout? No thank you. I’ve got my BTJ and I’m sticking with him. I like him maybe better than Nabers, and I roster both in dynasty.

Nabers is a beast after the catch but that doesn’t quite matter as much as it does in college. We saw the excellence today, but who are the Giants drafting at QB?

I think fantasy WR goes Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, ARSB, Nabers, Thomas, Collins, Nacua
 
If I had an MHJ I might try to swap off name value

I would wish everyone who is trying to do that the best of luck. Why would you move this guy for MHJ? So you can spend your Sundays watching Kyler pout? No thank you. I’ve got my BTJ and I’m sticking with him. I like him maybe better than Nabers, and I roster both in dynasty.

Nabers is a beast after the catch but that doesn’t quite matter as much as it does in college. We saw the excellence today, but who are the Giants drafting at QB?

I think fantasy WR goes Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, ARSB, Nabers, Thomas, Collins, Nacua
I don’t disagree with you. KTC has them as wr 8 and 9 though so it’s close enough to neck and neck for some people to float an offer out or see if you could add something nominal in some leagues.

Myself as a BTJ owner it’d take a 1st though so it may just be a trade that works on paper but isn’t happening
 
If I had an MHJ I might try to swap off name value

I would wish everyone who is trying to do that the best of luck. Why would you move this guy for MHJ? So you can spend your Sundays watching Kyler pout? No thank you. I’ve got my BTJ and I’m sticking with him. I like him maybe better than Nabers, and I roster both in dynasty.

Nabers is a beast after the catch but that doesn’t quite matter as much as it does in college. We saw the excellence today, but who are the Giants drafting at QB?

I think fantasy WR goes Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, ARSB, Nabers, Thomas, Collins, Nacua
I don’t disagree with you. KTC has them as wr 8 and 9 though so it’s close enough to neck and neck for some people to float an offer out or see if you could add something nominal in some leagues.

Myself as a BTJ owner it’d take a 1st though so it may just be a trade that works on paper but isn’t happening

Oh, I’m sorry. I didn’t mean to crap on your scenario or the likelihood of it. It’s a perfectly legitimate point and a legitimate trade offer.

I was concentrating on saying what I would do after watching both for decent periods this year and reading a bunch of amateur film scouts about them. Thomas is a much better route runner than people were giving him credit for; MHJ was a touch overrated in certain technique departments (and speed a bit).
 
If I had an MHJ I might try to swap off name value

I would wish everyone who is trying to do that the best of luck. Why would you move this guy for MHJ? So you can spend your Sundays watching Kyler pout? No thank you. I’ve got my BTJ and I’m sticking with him. I like him maybe better than Nabers, and I roster both in dynasty.

Nabers is a beast after the catch but that doesn’t quite matter as much as it does in college. We saw the excellence today, but who are the Giants drafting at QB?

I think fantasy WR goes Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, ARSB, Nabers, Thomas, Collins, Nacua
I don’t disagree with you. KTC has them as wr 8 and 9 though so it’s close enough to neck and neck for some people to float an offer out or see if you could add something nominal in some leagues.

Myself as a BTJ owner it’d take a 1st though so it may just be a trade that works on paper but isn’t happening

Oh, I’m sorry. I didn’t mean to crap on your scenario or the likelihood of it. It’s a perfectly legitimate point and a legitimate trade offer.

I was concentrating on saying what I would do after watching both for decent periods this year and reading a bunch of amateur film scouts about them. Thomas is a much better route runner than people were giving him credit for; MHJ was a touch overrated in certain technique departments (and speed a bit).
No offense taken! Your point that it’s probably harder to swing than it looks looking at the rankings is a good one.

I think our perspective on it is largely the same, it just seems like a significant portion of the market can be slow to adjust (btj just overtook mhj in their rankings a week or two ago iirc). But a lot of those type of rankings is people who own neither making lists when in reality most people who drafted the guy and watched him ball out aren’t looking to reroll
 
But a lot of those type of rankings is people who own neither making lists when in reality most people who drafted the guy and watched him ball out aren’t looking to reroll

And even among diehards there are some more casual than others. I mean, my Twitter feed has amateur film scouts on it, and I heard two of them break down how good Thomas was around Week Two or Three, and they had been on him from the beginning (due to college film). So I went out and traded Micah Parsons (the #1 defensive IDP in dynasty) for him. Just a quick, easy deal. He’s paid massive dividends so far. I made the finals because of Brian Thomas, Jr. Just awesome.

So my point is that I’m scanning Twitter at one or two in the morning to get straight dope into my veins. (I’m not bragging—in fact, I’m sort of making fun of myself and life.) That’s a bit obsessive and I don’t expect people making the lists or doing KTC to necessarily be doing that. But I’m not trading BTJ for anybody but Chase and Jefferson right now. I won’t even trade him for CeeDee.

I just blabbered myself into ranking him third overall.
 
Finally got around to putting in all of my season long bets today and while this is obviously very much influenced by the odds; I did bet for Thomas to have most regular season rookie receiving yards at +1300 and AP offensive rookie of the year at +4200. Never bets I'd make straight up, but suffice to say, I'm all in on this kid and a firm believer. I'm also still a very big TLaw apologist, so that colors my projection for him as well.
Well, Bowers had me nervous down the stretch, but this turned out to be a great odds bet that made up for the leagues I didn't win this year. Glad to have BTJ in all but one dynasty league.
 
If Tyreek Hill, Randy Moss and AJ Green had a test tube baby, you'd have Brian Thomas Jr. I am not saying BTJ does everything better than any of these guys, but I am saying none of these guys had the skillset BTJ has and he has a chance to be that rare guy you're talking about for decades to come. His size, speed, acceleration, route running and toughness after the catch are the total package.

I was all about the Josh Gordon comp for a while, but the more I watch BTJ play, the more I see someone that is just different. Guys like this are rare. Guys like this are special. Guys like this are difficult to find just one comp for because they have skillsets that are superior and all-encompassing. Ja'Marr Chase is one of these guys.
 
If Tyreek Hill, Randy Moss and AJ Green had a test tube baby, you'd have Brian Thomas Jr. I am not saying BTJ does everything better than any of these guys, but I am saying none of these guys had the skillset BTJ has and he has a chance to be that rare guy you're talking about for decades to come. His size, speed, acceleration, route running and toughness after the catch are the total package.

I was all about the Josh Gordon comp for a while, but the more I watch BTJ play, the more I see someone that is just different. Guys like this are rare. Guys like this are special. Guys like this are difficult to find just one comp for because they have skillsets that are superior and all-encompassing. Ja'Marr Chase is one of these guys.

Hope you're right. Now the Jags need to find a QB.
 
If Tyreek Hill, Randy Moss and AJ Green had a test tube baby, you'd have Brian Thomas Jr. I am not saying BTJ does everything better than any of these guys, but I am saying none of these guys had the skillset BTJ has and he has a chance to be that rare guy you're talking about for decades to come. His size, speed, acceleration, route running and toughness after the catch are the total package.

I was all about the Josh Gordon comp for a while, but the more I watch BTJ play, the more I see someone that is just different. Guys like this are rare. Guys like this are special. Guys like this are difficult to find just one comp for because they have skillsets that are superior and all-encompassing. Ja'Marr Chase is one of these guys.

Hope you're right. Now the Jags need to find a QB.
Based on what we’ve seen, I deserve to be flamed for this comment, but I believe Lawrence is that guy. Any case I raise for him will sound like excuse making, so I won’t go that route.

I’ll just say it’s my personal opinion they need to land a HC like Vrabel or Flores.
 
If Tyreek Hill, Randy Moss and AJ Green had a test tube baby, you'd have Brian Thomas Jr. I am not saying BTJ does everything better than any of these guys, but I am saying none of these guys had the skillset BTJ has and he has a chance to be that rare guy you're talking about for decades to come. His size, speed, acceleration, route running and toughness after the catch are the total package.

I was all about the Josh Gordon comp for a while, but the more I watch BTJ play, the more I see someone that is just different. Guys like this are rare. Guys like this are special. Guys like this are difficult to find just one comp for because they have skillsets that are superior and all-encompassing. Ja'Marr Chase is one of these guys.

Hope you're right. Now the Jags need to find a QB.
Based on what we’ve seen, I deserve to be flamed for this comment, but I believe Lawrence is that guy. Any case I raise for him will sound like excuse making, so I won’t go that route.

I’ll just say it’s my personal opinion they need to land a HC like Vrabel or Flores.

I thought BTJ became a superstar as soon as Mac Jones took over. Maybe it was just the timing of it with an ascending talent at WR, but I have been unimpressed with Trevor Lawrence to date. Seems like a serviceable back-up at this stage. Very "Alex Smith" in my mind (draft pedigree will carry him through an exceptionally adequate career).
 
If Tyreek Hill, Randy Moss and AJ Green had a test tube baby, you'd have Brian Thomas Jr. I am not saying BTJ does everything better than any of these guys, but I am saying none of these guys had the skillset BTJ has and he has a chance to be that rare guy you're talking about for decades to come. His size, speed, acceleration, route running and toughness after the catch are the total package.

I was all about the Josh Gordon comp for a while, but the more I watch BTJ play, the more I see someone that is just different. Guys like this are rare. Guys like this are special. Guys like this are difficult to find just one comp for because they have skillsets that are superior and all-encompassing. Ja'Marr Chase is one of these guys.

Hope you're right. Now the Jags need to find a QB.
Based on what we’ve seen, I deserve to be flamed for this comment, but I believe Lawrence is that guy. Any case I raise for him will sound like excuse making, so I won’t go that route.

I’ll just say it’s my personal opinion they need to land a HC like Vrabel or Flores.

I thought BTJ became a superstar as soon as Mac Jones took over. Maybe it was just the timing of it with an ascending talent at WR, but I have been unimpressed with Trevor Lawrence to date. Seems like a serviceable back-up at this stage. Very "Alex Smith" in my mind (draft pedigree will carry him through an exceptionally adequate career).
I don't think that's all necessarily true. BTJ jumped off the screen early on. He pretty much exploded onto the scene from the jump and just continued to grow as a player. As injuries in the WR room mounted, BTJ's opportunities also grew. BTJ ended the season on a high note with Jones for sure, but he also played with a chest injury (my guess is bruised ribs, broken ribs, torn cartilage, something) weeks 9-11. These 3 games also just happened to be his worst 3 week stretch this season. It was obvious BTJ became a focal point of the offense late, and this probably should have happened much earlier.

It wasn't until after the bye that BTJ really saw his targets skyrocket. Maybe I'm off base here, but I find it hard to believe this shift was simply because Mac Jones looked his way more often. This had to be a shift in coaching philosophy. Again, I could be way off base and completely wrong, but I just don't Mac Jones/BTJ as the next Kirk Cousins/JJ combo. Let's not forget, if Mac Jones was more accurate BTJ would have had several more long TDs. He was wide open for long gains or TDs on multiple occasions where MJ missed him.

FWIW, BTJ had a pretty nice run with TL weeks 4-8 against 5 pretty good defenses while he was still getting his feet wet.

I think we can all agree the book on TL isn't closed due to his talent and contract, and also that next year with another new coach will probably be the beginning of something special, or the beginning of the end for him in the NFL. He will still only be 25 at the start of next season. It feels like he's been around forever. If I'd bet blind, I would think he's closer to 35.
 

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