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WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (3 Viewers)

The Man With No Name said:
Doesn't matter if Lock sucks. Good wr's will get targets and production.
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Lock made some great throws last year - and Lock made some questionable throws into double coverage and Sutton bailed him out with great playmaking ability.

that’s a receiver who makes his QB better. 

 
Will Drew Lock be the second-best 2020 fantasy quarterback in the AFC West?

Excerpt:

Courtland Sutton broke out with his first 1,000-yard season last year finishing as WR19. What's the best-case scenario for him in 2020, and where should he be drafted?

Andy: Best-case? Well, it’s not crazy to hope for a small uptick in targets, perhaps to 140 or more. And if that happens, we could be looking at a 1,200-yard season with 8-10 touchdowns. Everyone likes Jerry Jeudy long term, but rookie skill players will face an unusually difficult transition this offseason. Sutton is the guy who already has a rapport with Drew Lock, which matters in a big way. Denver’s young quarterback was a late-season revelation in 2019 and the team surrounded him with weapons throughout the spring. I’m interested. If you’re targeting his primary receiving threat, you’ll need to draft Sutton as a WR2, inside the position’s top-24.

Liz: Sutton figures to suffer from a dilemma which the bros commonly refer to as “too many mouths to feed, man.” While he’s certainly a top-tier talent — posting 16 catches over 25 yards (WR2) — his top-eight (26.1%) target share figures to drop given the additions of route-technician Jerry Jeudy (No. 15), speedster KJ Hamler (No. 46), and pass-catching RB Melvin Gordon. From Weeks 13-17 with Drew Lock at the helm, Sutton averaged 4.4 catches and 56 yards per game. While those numbers should certainly improve given the familiarity the two already have with one another, it’s hard to imagine Sutton having the opportunity necessary to move inside of the top-15 producers at the position.

Dalton: He looked great his sophomore campaign, actually finishing top-five in WOPR, but his target share is almost certain to drop with the team spending a first-round pick on Jerry Jeudy, a second-round pick on KJ Hamler and Noah Fant continuing to develop (adding Melvin Gordon doesn’t help in the RZ either). With Drew Lock also a total question mark, I have Sutton in the 25ish range among wide receivers.
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Milkman said:
Agreed but not because he's not a talent. Drew Lock could struggle. If Drew does well Sutton will be the teams #1 target. 
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I didn’t say anything about his talent.  He has that, but there are a lot more weapons now and I think Jeudy will easily pass him as their #1 option.

 
JohnnyU said:
I didn’t say anything about his talent.  He has that, but there are a lot more weapons now and I think Jeudy will easily pass him as their #1 option.
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People expect way too much out of rookie WRs.

When was the last time a rookie WR surpassed a young pro bowl WR on any team--much less one who got 1000 yards with awful QB play?

 
KChusker said:
People expect way too much out of rookie WRs.

When was the last time a rookie WR surpassed a young pro bowl WR on any team--much less one who got 1000 yards with awful QB play?
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If not year one, then year two.  Jeudy is that good.

 
KChusker said:
People expect way too much out of rookie WRs.

When was the last time a rookie WR surpassed a young pro bowl WR on any team--much less one who got 1000 yards with awful QB play?
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Absolutely. It's not happening without an injury imo. 

 
JohnnyU said:
If not year one, then year two.  Jeudy is that good.
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I tend to disagree here. Jeudy is a very high floor player and is definitely not going to bust but Sutton fits Lock's play style of 50-50 balls to a big catch radius much better.

As for Jeudy he is my WR1 in this class so I am not doubting his value--just not sure he is the number 1 alpha WR you are expecting whereas Sutton already proved he can be. I can easily see a scenario like with Emmanuel Sanders in Denver for the first half of 2019 with both high WR2s

I don't like the Broncos but am more optimistic on Lock than most seem to be

 
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JohnnyU said:
Yeah he is though

Jeudy is a beast though 
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Very timid at times. Especially when he gets hit. He doesn't like to get hit. He's going to get hit harder in the NFL than he ever did in college. Did most of his damage against lesser teams. Runs good routes but I can't remember a WR that was timid that came in the league and dominated. I don't think he's terrible but he looks more like a #2 WR to me. 

On the other hand Sutton is a dog that will fight you after the game. Big/strong/fast (like one of the fastest 3 cones ever for a WR that size)/great hands/loves being physical. 

I would not be betting on Chiken Legs Jeudy to push Sutton down to WR2 on this team. 

Hell I wouldn't be surprised if Sutton has Jeudy walking around with his hand in Sutton's front pocket in the locker room. 

 
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Jeudy is really good and pretty much certain to be a nice NFL player but I see him as more Ridley than Julio

Not to say Sutton is as good as or will be as good as Julio, but the alpha WR1 vs WR2 dynamic

 
KChusker said:
Jeudy is really good and pretty much certain to be a nice NFL player but I see him as more Ridley than Julio

Not to say Sutton is as good as or will be as good as Julio, but the alpha WR1 vs WR2 dynamic
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Agreed.

Jeudy isn't going to bust. He should be a solid starter but most people see him as a stud and I'm not saying that. We have seen that from Sutton already though. 

 
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Jeudy and Sutton are such different players I don’t really see them as competing for the same targets. It could be a sanders/DT dynamic where they occasionally make each other frustrating to own but overall unless Lock completely craps the bed I think they should both put up good numbers and benefit from not being the sole focus of the coverage.

 
EthnicFury said:
Jeudy and Sutton are such different players I don’t really see them as competing for the same targets. It could be a sanders/DT dynamic where they occasionally make each other frustrating to own but overall unless Lock completely craps the bed I think they should both put up good numbers and benefit from not being the sole focus of the coverage.
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This.

I would see more reason to be worried about Sutton if Lamb was the pick even though I think Jeudy>Lamb. They would occupy the same niche

Jeudy and Sutton do not

 
Sorry JohnnyU, but Jeudy is the Ridley to Sutton’s Julio. Adjust Jeudy accordingly as to where you see Sutton compared to Julio

 
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If Jeudy is the great route runner we are understanding, there are going to be many, many plays where Lock is looking at a wide open Juedy and a contested catch Sutton. Who are you going to throw it to. I think year two and beyond Juedy holds his own (locker room or elsewhere).

 
JohnnyU said:
We will see
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Will we, though?

Sorry, that one was even funnier for me. Hee hee. Man I really hope they can figure out how to play this year. Some of my dynasty teams look to be just straight nasty this year. 

This next part isn't directed at you, just my take on this.

I liked what I saw from Lock and Sutton and I'm a believer. I am speculating that the targets will go Sutton, Fant/Jeudy, RBs/WR3....

If Fant and Jeudy get similar targets, or even a small edge for JJ, that might translate to being really good for Fant but something in the lower WR2-WR4 territory for JJ. Which for me is basically replacement level. Whereas Sutton would be the actual difference maker (at WR). If it goes that way. The idea that JJ might ascend isn't out of the question, and with Lock being a question mark, I've been avoiding Sutton in redraft. Major hold in dynasty, maybe even a buy if people are hot on JJ.

Also, there are a ton of JJ wide receivers with upside in the NFL right now. 

 
Catbird said:
If Jeudy is the great route runner we are understanding, there are going to be many, many plays where Lock is looking at a wide open Juedy and a contested catch Sutton. Who are you going to throw it to. I think year two and beyond Juedy holds his own (locker room or elsewhere).
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This.   .... I can easily see Jeudy having a Marvin Harrison type career if Lock does his part.  

 
Catbird said:
If Jeudy is the great route runner we are understanding, there are going to be many, many plays where Lock is looking at a wide open Juedy and a contested catch Sutton. Who are you going to throw it to. I think year two and beyond Juedy holds his own (locker room or elsewhere).
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I think this will be true at times, but moreso for longer developing plays where he has the time/space to shake open whereas Sutton is the guy on hot reads or in the redzone.

I agree he’ll hold his own for what it’s worth. I just think the increased offensive effectiveness (less three and outs and more redzone opps) outweighs the cannibalization aspect from a Sutton owner perspective.

 
I think everybody can agree if Lock isn't good it hurts all their FF output. I'm fading Sutton in redraft this year as well. Pretty much fading the entire Bronco offense this year because of Lock. 

 
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That brings up a good point @Milkman. Lock’s performance is probably a bigger variable than the talent of either. If you weren’t high coming in, it may leave good reason for doubt.
 

That said, QB performance is so rooted in confidence that outside the very best and worst guys it often feels like a self-fulfilling prophecy—success begets more success, and failure begets more failure. Top draft picks to awful teams wind up irreparably broken as the talent around them fails to protect or catch passes, while middling talents in good situations often outperform. Brady gets drafted to (in hindsight) the best-coached franchise, wins a Super Bowl as a backup, and becomes the GOAT despite not being a prospect to write home about. You can even see the difference in the same player—look at Goff with a full-strength Gurley vs a hobbled one.

So maybe a key question is, can one quantify the level of supporting cast around Lock and determine how often a generic QB with that level of weapons/protection succeeds vs fails?

 
In the modern NFL how many WR's have a BMI as low as Jeudy and are clearly the top WR on their team?  Few if any.

 
BINGBING said:
In the modern NFL how many WR's have a BMI as low as Jeudy and are clearly the top WR on their team?  Few if any.
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He and Lamb would both be outliers on BMI to be WR1s. Very few WR1 seasons going back 20 years have been registered by sub 25.5 BMIs

The main exceptions are some dudes named Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison

 
BINGBING said:
In the modern NFL how many WR's have a BMI as low as Jeudy and are clearly the top WR on their team?  Few if any.
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In seriousness though it is reason for some concern and part of why I still see Sutton being the WR1 and Jeudy being more of a Calvin Ridley type player

BUT Jeudy gets easy separation and doesn’t need to catch contested balls and get physical as much as many WRs

It is much more worrisome for Lamb, his physical contested catch/bully style and lack of separation to have such a low BMI and part of why I think his high ceiling comes with a really really high bust risk (for a first round pick)

I still believe Jeudy has a safer floor though but I do believe this is part of why premature predictions from last year of him being a top 5 pick, generational talent and the next Julio were checked back by actual NFL scouts

 
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