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WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
first 6 weeks:
53-33-471-2
last 6 weeks:
23-14-178-0
53-33-471-2
last 6 weeks:
23-14-178-0
dmac37
Footballguy
Once Juedy and Patrick were listed as out I was hoping Sutton would not end up on the COVID list. Gut feeling he will be one of those out of nowhere championship hero's. Lock seemed to really rely on him in 2019 if I remember correctly. Considering him over Mooney (wind/weather) and Berrios (Jets offense).
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
That’s a bold strategy, Cotton…
I like this call. Very contrarian, especially when you consider the Chargers have the worst run D in the NFL, Top 6 in FF Pts allowed to WRs, Lock looked awful last week, and Sutton hadn’t had a productive game in 11 weeks.
I was very high on Sutton this year as the X but neither Broncos QB has been effective. I think if they succeed it’ll be because they lean on their very capable backs. But Sutton did have a 2 TD game (with Sutton) v the Chargers in 2019. He does have 12 targets the last two weeks.
GL today!
DropKick
Footballguy
That article sucked. It plain and simply sucked. Literally, no content. What is up with today's journalists?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
72/1,112/6 were his Pro Bowl 2019 numbers.
2022 Projection
85/1250/8TDs
2022 Projection
85/1250/8TDs
daveR
Footballguy
IMO, Jeudy gets the biggest bump. Sutton, I compare to Metcalf. Jeudy to Lockett. (But, that's just my $.02)
Stats wise, yes, but value wise he is already more expensive to acquire than Sutton in dynasty
rockaction
Footballguy
Acquiring Sutton in a deal the day before this: 
Acquiring D.K. Metcalf in that same deal, and giving up Javonte for him:
WTF?
Acquiring D.K. Metcalf in that same deal, and giving up Javonte for him:
WTF?
Birdie048
Footballguy
I would decline Mooney if offered for Sutton. Or counter adding something like maybe my 2023 3rd for his 2nd. But I am not a believer in Fields so there is that!!
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
If you have Sutton who recently got a nice extension of about $15M a year, let the good times roll. Why trade into the unknown? Odds are high Denver's Offense just got light years better.
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Shawnky
Footballguy
You should have accepted that. Look at what Sutton did with Case Keenum before his injury.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
In the 10 games that Jeudy and Sutton played together, Sutton averaged 3.8 targets per game and 16 yards per game. Jeudy averaged 46 yards per game. All of this with bad QB play. I think 10 games is good enough of a sample size to see who you want between Jeudy and Sutton in 2022 with a good QB. If you want to look at this as Jeudy is the new Lockett and Sutton is the new Metcalf, let's not forget Wilson was in love with Lockett. I'll take the better route runner in this situation.
zamboni
Footballguy
There could be some parallels, but I'd be careful to extrapolate Wilson's tendencies with the Seattle guys to what he'll do in Denver.
I'm probably more interested to see who Wilson is spending more time with in the offseason - often that gives some early tips into building chemistry.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Do you really believe this? If so you may want to take a statistics class. You may end up being correct but your reasoning is specious.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
There's too much "noise" in a ten game sample size to draw any real conclusions. Maybe Sutton was banged up some of those weeks, maybe some of the games pop gun armed Bridgewater never even looked deep, maybe the better corner was on Sutton....
On top of that I'm not sure what happened with bums like Bridgewater, Keenum, Flacco, Rypien or Lock under center have any predictive value on what will happen with Wilson.
I'm not saying you're wrong to believe Jeudy is the top target in Denver, there's plenty of good reasons to feel that way. I just wouldn't put any stock in some random 10 game sample size though that lacks context.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I can respect that, but that's what we have for the year 2021 when both were on the field together. I would think 10 games is a lot, but don't know how Wilson will work with either. I can see a Wilson / Lockett comparison for Jeudy and some big plays downfield with Sutton.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
For the record I think Metcalf >>> Sutton and Lockett is >>> Jeudy so I hate the comps. But Wilson will certainly unlock whatever untapped potential they have.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Agree on Metcalf. Not so sure on Lockett over Jeudy. Not a fair comparison thus far. This is the year we find out about Jeudy. I don't think Locket had Drew Lock throwing to him, or DJ on the other side. And some of them take a year or two.
Also, two kind of important things. Hamler and a stud RB are now at Wilson's disposal. I think the numbers might be alright, it's your guess as to where they'll go. Jeudy and/or Hamler are good buys imo.
zamboni
Footballguy
That is key no matter whether one is assessing Sutton, Jeudy, Patrick, Hamler or Albert O in the passing game.
The offense should be much more efficient with Wilson, but still there is only one football to go around. And unless it's a very fast paced, up tempo offense, not everyone is going to eat well.
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rockaction
Footballguy
What on earth is Pianowski telling us in that article? At least Behrens planted a flag. Pianowski said nothing, really, other than being Russell Wilson's favorite target would let somebody have a better season than they had with Lock and Bridgewater last year. No kidding, man.
DropKick
Footballguy
VikingFrog
Footballguy
The Sutton Vs Jeudy conversation is going to be mighty interesting heading into the season.
Both have similar Vegas lines of about 1,000 yards receiving and 6-7 TD.
We will all hope one of them over-performs that.
If Russ can sling it in Denver like we know he can, and the ground game keeps defenses honest, both of these guys could pay off.
But I’m intrigued to see from the Sharks who we think comes out on top.
Full disclosure, I had Sutton slightly ahead of Jeudy in my rankings due to injury, measurables and known commodity… but after “accidentally” panic drafting Jeudy last night, I’ve been reading an awful lot about his ability to create separation and crisp routes.
I’m just projecting Sutton to produce more TDs.
Both have similar Vegas lines of about 1,000 yards receiving and 6-7 TD.
We will all hope one of them over-performs that.
If Russ can sling it in Denver like we know he can, and the ground game keeps defenses honest, both of these guys could pay off.
But I’m intrigued to see from the Sharks who we think comes out on top.
Full disclosure, I had Sutton slightly ahead of Jeudy in my rankings due to injury, measurables and known commodity… but after “accidentally” panic drafting Jeudy last night, I’ve been reading an awful lot about his ability to create separation and crisp routes.
I’m just projecting Sutton to produce more TDs.
For the cost, it seems that Sutton is rising to the point where he may no longer be the value (see him often going mid-late 3rd round) while Jeudy is creeping into that value target range in the mid/late 5th.
For the cost, I have found myself aiming for Jeudy a bit more, while just 3-4 weeks ago I was targeting Sutton a lot in the mid-late 4th.
I think Sutton will end up with slightly better stats, but that it will be close enough that from a fantasy perspective, I'd rather pick up Jeudy in the 5th and get someone like Waddle/DJ Moore who have similar ADPs as Sutton in the 3rd/early 4th
habsfan
Footballguy
This reminds me of Lockett and Metcalf. Two years ago I took Metcalf later. Last year the script flipped and I took Lockett later. If you can get this right it can be a big help.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
ECR Sutton has a big edge (44/WR19 v 59/WR26), but ADP it’s a lot closer (WR 22 v WR24.)
Wilson, regardless of system, has always favored outside boundary receivers. 75% of his targets went to WRs lining up outside. League average is 53%. Sutton is a true X. He has developed great chemistry with Wilson, should be a frequent RZ target, and is a better deep threat.
FYI - obviously they’re playing with a better QB now but Jeudy has only 1 RZ TD in two years (RZ targets were 8 in 2020 and 3 last year.) Sutton had 21 RZ targets in 2019 (3 TDs) and 13 last year. His aDOT was 14.9 in 2021, compared to 10.4 for Jeudy.
Sutton could easily be Top 10-12. IMO Jeudy - who should be a good FF WR2 on a good offense - does not have the same upside.
Wilson, regardless of system, has always favored outside boundary receivers. 75% of his targets went to WRs lining up outside. League average is 53%. Sutton is a true X. He has developed great chemistry with Wilson, should be a frequent RZ target, and is a better deep threat.
FYI - obviously they’re playing with a better QB now but Jeudy has only 1 RZ TD in two years (RZ targets were 8 in 2020 and 3 last year.) Sutton had 21 RZ targets in 2019 (3 TDs) and 13 last year. His aDOT was 14.9 in 2021, compared to 10.4 for Jeudy.
Sutton could easily be Top 10-12. IMO Jeudy - who should be a good FF WR2 on a good offense - does not have the same upside.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
This statement is completely false. Doug Baldwin was the NFL's "prototypical slot receiver" in 2018 according to PFF. And NFL's best slot receiver in 2016, according to SI.
Baldwin has been one of Russell Wilson’s favorite targets in the last few years, and the two have combined to be one of the best QB/WR duos in the NFL.
Doug Baldwin is NFL's prototypical slot receiver
The NFL's summer vacation has given Pro Football Focus a chance to sift through some of their data and help come up with NFL prototypes. The Seattle Seahawks' Doug Baldwin has been crowned as the 'shifty slot prototype' for his excellence as a slot receiver. Baldwin has…
seahawkswire.usatoday.com
Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks
Baldwin's strength as a receiver lies on the inside where he is a master improviser.
www.si.com
Stoneworker
Footballguy
And Jerry Jeudy is more like Doug Baldwin given his route-running skills.
moleculo
Footballguy
There's a lot to take in here, but I find it interesting. In short, Russell Wilson is much better at adjusting throws vertically than horizontally. That is, he sees the field near/far instead of sideline to sideline.
I think most people would agree that Wilsons strength is his deep ball and vertical reads- not scanning the field left to right.
IMO, that plays to Suttons game much more than Jeudy.
That, plus camp reports, mean I'm targeting Sutton as much as I can.
I think most people would agree that Wilsons strength is his deep ball and vertical reads- not scanning the field left to right.
IMO, that plays to Suttons game much more than Jeudy.
That, plus camp reports, mean I'm targeting Sutton as much as I can.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
This is true. It would be nice to hear reports about them connecting like that. The reports are more about Sutton at this point and I’m a buyer!
massraider
Footballguy
Also, Sutton we know is a good WR when healthy.
We don't know that about Jeudy.
We don't know that about Jeudy.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
This statement is completely false. Doug Baldwin was the NFL's "prototypical slot receiver" in 2018 according to PFF. And NFL's best slot receiver in 2016, according to SI.
Baldwin has been one of Russell Wilson’s favorite targets in the last few years, and the two have combined to be one of the best QB/WR duos in the NFL.
Doug Baldwin is NFL's prototypical slot receiver
The NFL's summer vacation has given Pro Football Focus a chance to sift through some of their data and help come up with NFL prototypes. The Seattle Seahawks' Doug Baldwin has been crowned as the 'shifty slot prototype' for his excellence as a slot receiver. Baldwin has…seahawkswire.usatoday.com
Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks
Baldwin's strength as a receiver lies on the inside where he is a master improviser.
Wilson does not do well throwing the ball over the middle. Been that way for years.
But thanks for reminding us Doug Baldwin was fantasy relevant in 2017.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
This is true. Jeudy has significant potential but still has much to prove to fulfill it. So Sutton is the the less risky choice in a FF draft.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
At this point you're just digging a deeper hole. Your statement was "regardless of system" and "always favored" the outside WR. Blatantly false on both counts.
Doug Baldwin the slot receiver was Russell Wilson's favorite target and the leading Seahawk WR for years.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
PFF seems to agree with the Baldwin/Jeudy comparison...
PFF's Renner explained that there could be instant chemistry with Wilson as Jeudy’s “skill set and route-running ability are very similar to the man who caught more passes from Wilson than anyone else: Doug Baldwin.”
After lining up primarily on the outside as a rookie, Jeudy went back to his college roots in the slot in 2021, where Baldwin also primarily operated over the course of his career. That’s a role that Wilson is obviously very comfortable pumping targets toward.”
www.si.com
PFF's Renner explained that there could be instant chemistry with Wilson as Jeudy’s “skill set and route-running ability are very similar to the man who caught more passes from Wilson than anyone else: Doug Baldwin.”
After lining up primarily on the outside as a rookie, Jeudy went back to his college roots in the slot in 2021, where Baldwin also primarily operated over the course of his career. That’s a role that Wilson is obviously very comfortable pumping targets toward.”
PFF Chooses Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy as Top 2022 Breakout Candidate - Sports Illustrated Mile High Huddle: Denver Broncos News, Analysis and More
The latest on the third-year WR.
www.si.com
