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WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter cdclopper
- Start date
Monty Burns
Footballguy
I'm as A.S.S. man to.....
The hype train for this guy is officially off the rails for this week's matchup.
Virtually every single fantasy site is hyping him up.
Probably for good reason. LAR are terrible against outside receivers, Wicks target share was superb last week, Doubs a bit banged up.
I'm trying to fit him in my lineup, but why does this feel like a "What could possibly go wrong?" situation.
Virtually every single fantasy site is hyping him up.
Probably for good reason. LAR are terrible against outside receivers, Wicks target share was superb last week, Doubs a bit banged up.
I'm trying to fit him in my lineup, but why does this feel like a "What could possibly go wrong?" situation.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Strongly considering over Achane, Pickens and Ford. Feels like a strong ceiling play that could go very wrong but the possibilities are juicy.
zamboni
Footballguy
Feel the same - how often does the reality live up to the hype? In any case, I'm also starting him regardless due to Nabers likely being out.
zamboni
Footballguy
It's really a shame that they actually play the games.
They were hyping him up before Doubs missed practice. Really dumb because GB was spreading the ball around to 4 receivers (3 WR, 1 TE). Then there's Josh Jacobs too.
GB was playing catchup mode vs Minn so that inflated the overall metrics.
Anyway he is only under consideration if Doubs is out. If Doubs is in I don't see how he is more than a flex play.
Wicks had more targets last week than Romeo had through the first 3 games. He's a lot better at creating space and getting open.
He had a 60 yd bomb called back in the 1st quarter of the first game. He's just good.
I also cringe whenever I read..."tasty matchup"
zamboni
Footballguy
I would say the same thing for speculating on any kind of matchup because things rarely go as planned, but that's for another topic thread.
I get it. This game is one of the highest point totals. Hope it’s a shoot out
If Doubs is out, I'm seriously considering over T. Hill.
Amazing how the various rankings across sites have changed over the course of the week. Even looking at FBGs. T. Hill has kept plummeting while Wicks has been on the rise to the point in some spots they are ranked right next to each other in PPR.
Nice Work Pal
Footballguy
Full ppr I'm sitting Hill for Wicks.
Doubs listed as doubtful. He aint playin'.
Hard to resist.
Watch Melton go bananas.
massraider
Footballguy
Looking at snap counts is something IDP people use a lot (well, they should anyhow).
Across the first 4 weeks, he's the slot guy, 3rd man in. In 2-wide personnel, it's usually been the other three guys.
As it applies to Reed, I feel like him getting to 2 man sets isn't really much of a thing to be concerned about. When he's on the field, they use him, he's showing efficiency. I dunno if I need him on the field with the two TE sets, blocking for Jacobs.
massraider
Footballguy
Some additional context:
Love threw 34 passes in game 1, it was Malik Willis for two weeks, then Love threw 54 freaking passes in week 4.
You start counting up targets on a 54 pass day, and trying to pro-rate them, you gonna be picking up Luke Musgrave if you don't look out
massraider
Footballguy
Doubs is personal reasons and listed as doubtful. Watson isn't practicing.
choo choo this week, I would say
choo choo this week, I would say
pollardsvision
Footballguy
And the Rams are so bad that the game could be over by the 3rd.Some additional context:
Love threw 34 passes in game 1, it was Malik Willis for two weeks, then Love threw 54 freaking passes in week 4.
You start counting up targets on a 54 pass day, and trying to pro-rate them, you gonna be picking up Luke Musgrave if you don't look out
Cardinals dropped 41 on them and Kyler only threw 21 passes.
I'm starting Wicks, but 2 Jacobs TD's, a Kraft TD and then take the air out of the ball/get Malik some more reps is certainly in play.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Due to injuries/byes I've gotta start Wicks and Whittington so I'm hoping for a shootout lol. Both teams can be passed on IMO.And the Rams are so bad that the game could be over by the 3rd.Some additional context:
Love threw 34 passes in game 1, it was Malik Willis for two weeks, then Love threw 54 freaking passes in week 4.
You start counting up targets on a 54 pass day, and trying to pro-rate them, you gonna be picking up Luke Musgrave if you don't look out
Cardinals dropped 41 on them and Kyler only threw 21 passes.
I'm starting Wicks, but 2 Jacobs TD's, a Kraft TD and then take the air out of the ball/get Malik some more reps is certainly in play.
I think at home, Stafford keeps firing away and keeps it close enough.And the Rams are so bad that the game could be over by the 3rd.Some additional context:
Love threw 34 passes in game 1, it was Malik Willis for two weeks, then Love threw 54 freaking passes in week 4.
You start counting up targets on a 54 pass day, and trying to pro-rate them, you gonna be picking up Luke Musgrave if you don't look out
Cardinals dropped 41 on them and Kyler only threw 21 passes.
I'm starting Wicks, but 2 Jacobs TD's, a Kraft TD and then take the air out of the ball/get Malik some more reps is certainly in play.
Route running percentage is a better guide then snap counts for WR's but there is usually a correlation.
I understand being out there on running plays means nothing but of course teams can't be that predictable. Reed does get used decently when he's available and he's wildly efficient but I still think it's impacting his ultimate upside.
Reeds route running percentage is up to 82% this year from 69% last year but ironically it's actually positively skewed by the Malik Willis starts. He's been a 70% and 78% in the two full Love games and both of those games they had to go more pass heavy. My guess is over the course of a full season it's going to shrink back down to near the 70% mark like last year.
But this thread is about Wicks and he's shown a much higher target to route running percentage then Reed, albeit not remotely the same efficiency nor am I in anyway trying to knock Reed, just pointing out that to me not playing in 2 WR sets has an impact on him.
Some data:
Wicks has had just shy of one full game with Love as his QB and got 13 targets. I get the game script could not have been better but Reed's career high is 10 targets and Doubs career high is 13. Again for emphasis this was essentially Wicks first full game as a starter and even saying that it's "almost" a full game, give him those extra few snaps and he likely goes over the 13.
Running 20 routes a game is a pretty low bar but that's where I'll start.Week 4 was the first game Wicks did that all year. He did it 5 times last year and the number of routes he ran, targets and PPR points not counting fumbles or anything:
2023:
34/6/8.5
23/1/0
24/6/4
31/7/16.7
27/7/22.1
2024:
43/13/24.8
So we did have one total dud and some meh games but those were also his first 3 games getting that many routes early during his rookie season. Safe assumption he and Love had improved a great deal and his last 3 games getting this kind of work he's posted WR1 numbers and that was with Doubs in the lineup.
As mentioned he's not efficient. He makes a lot of mistakes but it sure seems to me he's going to get plenty of chances.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I hope they do. Making no predictions.I think at home, Stafford keeps firing away and keeps it close enough.And the Rams are so bad that the game could be over by the 3rd.Some additional context:
Love threw 34 passes in game 1, it was Malik Willis for two weeks, then Love threw 54 freaking passes in week 4.
You start counting up targets on a 54 pass day, and trying to pro-rate them, you gonna be picking up Luke Musgrave if you don't look out
Cardinals dropped 41 on them and Kyler only threw 21 passes.
I'm starting Wicks, but 2 Jacobs TD's, a Kraft TD and then take the air out of the ball/get Malik some more reps is certainly in play.
But if the Packers get up early, all bets are off. Packers are 2-2 this season. The 2 games they won were when they got up early and ran the hell out of the ball.
The games where they threw a lot were they games they lost. Wouldn't be shocking for LeFleur to get up early and pound away. He's 2-0 with Malik in games where he knew they were better and didn't need to throw the ball.
Anyway, I'm starting Wicks because he's a good player on a good offense against a bad defense. Just mentioning how the game script could go wrong. Could easily be one of those "hope he catches one of the first 3 TD's or it's a dud" kind of games
I hope the Rams show some life. But there's obviously a chance they won't.
massraider
Footballguy
With the Love injury, and then facing a really good divisional opponent (who played well AND had some lucky bounces) this past week, I feel like the Packers have barely gotten out of the garage. I am not even going to try and project them based on these first 4 games--in terms of gameplan and tendency.
Their next 4 games are @Rams, then Cards and Texans at home, and @Jags. In my league, 3 out of those 4 are bottom 6 in fantasy points allowed to WR, and the Cards are 15th.
So, from a fantasy points allowed perspective, the Packers toughest opponent is ARI at home. Now, small sample size and all that, but the next month looks juicy for Packers passing game.
Everyone who matters on that offense is ascending, and I want a piece of this team come fantasy playoffs.
Isn't that what we're looking for lol?I hope they do. Making no predictions.I think at home, Stafford keeps firing away and keeps it close enough.And the Rams are so bad that the game could be over by the 3rd.Some additional context:
Love threw 34 passes in game 1, it was Malik Willis for two weeks, then Love threw 54 freaking passes in week 4.
You start counting up targets on a 54 pass day, and trying to pro-rate them, you gonna be picking up Luke Musgrave if you don't look out
Cardinals dropped 41 on them and Kyler only threw 21 passes.
I'm starting Wicks, but 2 Jacobs TD's, a Kraft TD and then take the air out of the ball/get Malik some more reps is certainly in play.
But if the Packers get up early, all bets are off. Packers are 2-2 this season. The 2 games they won were when they got up early and ran the hell out of the ball.
The games where they threw a lot were they games they lost. Wouldn't be shocking for LeFleur to get up early and pound away. He's 2-0 with Malik in games where he knew they were better and didn't need to throw the ball.
Anyway, I'm starting Wicks because he's a good player on a good offense against a bad defense. Just mentioning how the game script could go wrong. Could easily be one of those "hope he catches one of the first 3 TD's or it's a dud" kind of games
I hope the Rams show some life. But there's obviously a chance they won't.
My other option is arguably the most talented WR in the league but on a team with no real QB, on the road, potentially shadowed by a good CB, in an offense that looks completely dysfunctional, and with the lowest O/U on the board.
@SEA, NO, @MIN weeks 15-17.
Maybe GB players get you to the playoffs, but you sell high just prior.
massraider
Footballguy
Looking ahead to playoff schedule is fun, but Imma tell you right now, you not scaring me with MIN in the dome. He just threw 54 passes against them!
Ha. True.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Eh, division games are a different animal alot of timesAnd the Rams are so bad that the game could be over by the 3rd.Some additional context:
Love threw 34 passes in game 1, it was Malik Willis for two weeks, then Love threw 54 freaking passes in week 4.
You start counting up targets on a 54 pass day, and trying to pro-rate them, you gonna be picking up Luke Musgrave if you don't look out
Cardinals dropped 41 on them and Kyler only threw 21 passes.
I'm starting Wicks, but 2 Jacobs TD's, a Kraft TD and then take the air out of the ball/get Malik some more reps is certainly in play.
This. The Packers have their eyes on the SB. They know they're going to have to be a high scoring team. They're going to run, but they know if they're going to win it's going to be on Jordan's arm. With him having missed a couple games, I think he gets plenty of reps and takes some shots downfield, even if the Rams fall way behind early.
Remember how shaky Love was at the beginning of the season vs the playoffs? They want to make sure he's in his final form. I don't think Malik sees the field.
It was a trap!
He's been the first read on a few plays but Let's be has been missing him. Definitely a chance he goes off in the 2nd half.
rockaction
Footballguy
Least it's not a goose egg anymore.
Man In The Box
Footballguy
Maybe Doubs has a legit beef.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
BladeRunner
Footballguy
Fool's Gold
FantasyGuru24
Footballguy
Terrible pass .. Under thrown .. Should’ve been a walk in touchdown. Having said that, he still should’ve caught it.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Not ready for prime time
