What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (2 Viewers)

Per game this breaks down to: 7.5 targets, 4.3 catches, 74.8 yards, 1.3 TD's and would translate to 128 targets, 73/1,272/22 TD's.
So the 1300/12 is too low you guys...

85/1600/25 it is then
It’s just such a thin branch to go out on. They look like video game numbers.

And it’s hard to project that for a team’s WR2.

But I concede it’s possible. Not likely. But possible.
I know, and I feel the same way about him as your post a few posts up.
80/1000/10, but then you watch him and josh play and it's like, 17 games, a couple multi-touchdown games, a couple no-touchdown games, yeah 10-15 TD's seems 100% reasonable.
15 Touchdowns is pretty elite for a WR. I think Davis is a good player in a great offense. There are Wide Receivers that are way better than him that I don't envision getting 15 touchdowns.
I agree with you. I can think of plenty of receivers that are better than Davis.
But with Allen throwing the ball, anything is possible. Allen gave John Brown his best statistical season in 2019 at the age of 29, and same with Beasley in 2020 at the age of 31.
Do I think Davis could get 12+ TD's because of Allen? Yes
Do I think Davis could get 12+ TD's with 80% of the other NFL QB's throwing to him? No.
 
If you remember the narrative of Bills training camp 2021, it was the acquisition of Emmanuel Sanders as the legitimate #2 WR opposite Diggs after Allen's breakthrough campaign. You do that when you don't think a guy like Davis is ready.

After the JAX loss (6-9), Sanders never eclipsed 36 yards or 3 receptions in a game. Davis's first game after that loss was a 3/105/0 effort. He was the #2 after that.

Davis doesn't enter this season as a backup so I think there is a big difference.
Sure but that also says something when a 36 year old WR is beating you of the job. If we just look at what Davis did after the Jags game, it was average 3.1 catches a game.
 
Sure but that also says something when a 36 year old WR is beating you of the job. If we just look at what Davis did after the Jags game, it was average 3.1 catches a game.
I felt less like he was “beaten out of the job” and more like the Bills thought Davis wasn’t quite ready & trusted the cagey veteran more for what they saw as a likely playoff run.

It’s a bit of a false narrative that’s percolated since the beginning of last season. Hey, I’m all for it, as it allowed me to get Davis as a toss-in on a deal because the owner was frustrated by the Sanders signing.

And fast-forwarding to later in the season, through injury & ineffectiveness, Davis took that job from Sanders, so…
 
If you remember the narrative of Bills training camp 2021, it was the acquisition of Emmanuel Sanders as the legitimate #2 WR opposite Diggs after Allen's breakthrough campaign. You do that when you don't think a guy like Davis is ready.

After the JAX loss (6-9), Sanders never eclipsed 36 yards or 3 receptions in a game. Davis's first game after that loss was a 3/105/0 effort. He was the #2 after that.

Davis doesn't enter this season as a backup so I think there is a big difference.
Sure but that also says something when a 36 year old WR is beating you of the job. If we just look at what Davis did after the Jags game, it was average 3.1 catches a game.
Sanders was on a 1 year deal, he was brought in to help teach these young WR's the game. He was never beating anyone of their job. Ever since McDermott and Beane took over, they've never just handed players the starting role, regardless of position. They make you earn the position. Part of Davis 'earning' the position was to watch and learn from a vet who's been in the league for more than 10 years.
It's no different than school. You want to graduate top of your class? make all that $$$$??? You gotta earn it.
Trust. The. Process.
 
ADP of 4.08
After checking out that ADP on MFL, it’s pretty obvious that there is a significant difference in drafting strategy. I mean look no farther than Ekeler being 3rd overall or the QB’s being drafted so freaking high, I need to join these leagues!
And I need to join your leagues where guys like Gabe Davis go round 3/4. :bored:
Hate the "my league is better than yours" comments. Ekeler going 3rd overall is pretty justified and even in your 'be all end all' FFPC drafts he's going on average 5th. 2 spots is that crazy? Sheesh.
I started this conversation pretty much congratulating you bro. Have a good day!
Yet said nothing to the guy who got him in the 7th, and proceeded to talk about how your leagues were all better than everyone else's out there and how you are sharper than all the FBG staff.
But I digress, have a good day too :P
Oh my goodness. Good luck this season!
Assumed this would be your reaction. You literally made fun of leagues where Ekeler was going 3rd overall, when that is the normal for him. You need to do some more research lol


Eke is a 1.03 pick in virtually every PPR league. What a preposterous take.
Exactly lol.
 
For the record, I am and always was a fan of him at his ADP. My argument is that his ADP in the majority of leagues, is late 5th/early 6th.

He went mid 6th in mine, He went 7th in Icons, and the only real leagues I've heard him going in round 3/4 are the FFPC leagues where, again, these type of high ceiling players (like Pacheco) are getting taken MUCH earlier than they are in most leagues. If you have a home league, you're extremely likely to get him end of 5, early 6. And that's whats important here... if you pick 4.08 for example and love him, your odds of taking another player and still getting him at 5.05 are extremely high.

Have another draft tonight and will let y'all know where he goes and would love to hear where he went in everyone's draft in here who aren't playing FFPC.
 
For the record, I am and always was a fan of him at his ADP. My argument is that his ADP in the majority of leagues, is late 5th/early 6th.

He went mid 6th in mine, He went 7th in Icons, and the only real leagues I've heard him going in round 3/4 are the FFPC leagues where, again, these type of high ceiling players (like Pacheco) are getting taken MUCH earlier than they are in most leagues. If you have a home league, you're extremely likely to get him end of 5, early 6. And that's whats important here... if you pick 4.08 for example and love him, your odds of taking another player and still getting him at 5.05 are extremely high.

Have another draft tonight and will let y'all know where he goes and would love to hear where he went in everyone's draft in here who aren't playing FFPC.
It's a fair point, even if I think you skew to the "DP" part and ignore the "A" a little too much ("Phrasing!"). If you look at ADP (MFL) from after the draft to redrafts after August 15th Davis's ADP has gone from WR32 to WR28. It's a jump but not a huge one.
 
For the record, I am and always was a fan of him at his ADP. My argument is that his ADP in the majority of leagues, is late 5th/early 6th.

He went mid 6th in mine, He went 7th in Icons, and the only real leagues I've heard him going in round 3/4 are the FFPC leagues where, again, these type of high ceiling players (like Pacheco) are getting taken MUCH earlier than they are in most leagues. If you have a home league, you're extremely likely to get him end of 5, early 6. And that's whats important here... if you pick 4.08 for example and love him, your odds of taking another player and still getting him at 5.05 are extremely high.

Have another draft tonight and will let y'all know where he goes and would love to hear where he went in everyone's draft in here who aren't playing FFPC.
It's a fair point, even if I think you skew to the "DP" part and ignore the "A" a little too much ("Phrasing!"). If you look at ADP (MFL) from after the draft to redrafts after August 15th Davis's ADP has gone from WR32 to WR28. It's a jump but not a huge one.
And it may go up a bit more but we're just about in the heart of draft season... well maybe in a week or so is the real heart of it.


I don't believe FFPC adp is accurate to translate to most leagues, and the pumpers in here don't think that the MFL or other site data is accurate for their leagues, so I think we just have to wait and hear where he's going in more people's drafts before we can truly judge. However I have a feeling a lot of ppl in here are going to be the ones saying "he went in round 1 in my draft! I took him!" :P
 
If you remember the narrative of Bills training camp 2021, it was the acquisition of Emmanuel Sanders as the legitimate #2 WR opposite Diggs after Allen's breakthrough campaign. You do that when you don't think a guy like Davis is ready.

After the JAX loss (6-9), Sanders never eclipsed 36 yards or 3 receptions in a game. Davis's first game after that loss was a 3/105/0 effort. He was the #2 after that.

Davis doesn't enter this season as a backup so I think there is a big difference.
Sure but that also says something when a 36 year old WR is beating you of the job. If we just look at what Davis did after the Jags game, it was average 3.1 catches a game.
Really? When they had signed Sanders early in the 2021 FA period to a 1 yr $6M deal? And you're a 2nd year 4th rounder? We're going to hold it against Davis that he didn't beat Sanders out of a job 3 months earlier?
 
For the record, I am and always was a fan of him at his ADP. My argument is that his ADP in the majority of leagues, is late 5th/early 6th.

He went mid 6th in mine, He went 7th in Icons, and the only real leagues I've heard him going in round 3/4 are the FFPC leagues where, again, these type of high ceiling players (like Pacheco) are getting taken MUCH earlier than they are in most leagues. If you have a home league, you're extremely likely to get him end of 5, early 6. And that's whats important here... if you pick 4.08 for example and love him, your odds of taking another player and still getting him at 5.05 are extremely high.

Have another draft tonight and will let y'all know where he goes and would love to hear where he went in everyone's draft in here who aren't playing FFPC.
It's a fair point, even if I think you skew to the "DP" part and ignore the "A" a little too much ("Phrasing!"). If you look at ADP (MFL) from after the draft to redrafts after August 15th Davis's ADP has gone from WR32 to WR28. It's a jump but not a huge one.
And it may go up a bit more but we're just about in the heart of draft season... well maybe in a week or so is the real heart of it.


I don't believe FFPC adp is accurate to translate to most leagues, and the pumpers in here don't think that the MFL or other site data is accurate for their leagues, so I think we just have to wait and hear where he's going in more people's drafts before we can truly judge. However I have a feeling a lot of ppl in here are going to be the ones saying "he went in round 1 in my draft! I took him!" :P
Yeah, it's another reason I prefer saying where a player ranks among their peers (WR28) instead of ADP, the reranking adjustment based on league variables is easier than trying to figure out what round.pick a player will be taken. "27WRs off the board? I better grab Davis soon if I want him"
 
Per game this breaks down to: 7.5 targets, 4.3 catches, 74.8 yards, 1.3 TD's and would translate to 128 targets, 73/1,272/22 TD's.
So the 1300/12 is too low you guys...

85/1600/25 it is then
It’s just such a thin branch to go out on. They look like video game numbers.

And it’s hard to project that for a team’s WR2.

But I concede it’s possible. Not likely. But possible.
I know, and I feel the same way about him as your post a few posts up.
80/1000/10, but then you watch him and josh play and it's like, 17 games, a couple multi-touchdown games, a couple no-touchdown games, yeah 10-15 TD's seems 100% reasonable.
15 Touchdowns is pretty elite for a WR. I think Davis is a good player in a great offense. There are Wide Receivers that are way better than him that I don't envision getting 15 touchdowns.
I agree with you. I can think of plenty of receivers that are better than Davis.
But with Allen throwing the ball, anything is possible. Allen gave John Brown his best statistical season in 2019 at the age of 29, and same with Beasley in 2020 at the age of 31.
Do I think Davis could get 12+ TD's because of Allen? Yes
Do I think Davis could get 12+ TD's with 80% of the other NFL QB's throwing to him? No.
I guess if we're playing the game of "could happen," Trey Lance COULD break the rushing record and win MVP. It's not likely. But hey anything can happen.

Is it likely that Davis gets 15 touchdowns? No. Diggs is his #1 and has 8 and 10 the last 2 years. Davis in his 1st full year as the #2 is going to blow Diggs TD production out of the water?

I think Tee Higgins is significantly more talented than Davis. I don't think the gap between Burrow and Allen's passing ability is THAT big. I can't begin to predict 15 touchdowns for Higgins. And his QB is really talented, too.
 
Last edited:
Davis in his 1st full year as the #2 is going to blow Diggs TD production out of the water?
This is actually quite possible given a few factors:
1. Davis will not leave the field in 2 wide formations since he's the best run blocker. As such they could use him on PA passing quite a bit if the defense creeps up / sells out for the run.
2. Davis clearly has a nose for the end zone. His TD production has been prolific through his early career/part time play. When he started to take over for Sanders down the stretch, I believe he scored in 4 of his 5 starts. That's not counting the playoffs where he also scored a ton.
3. Davis is the "improv" WR. When Allen goes off-script and scrambles around, Davis has proved not just capable of, but very very good at improvising with him to give him a target. And he's still doing it. He literally did just that in the last preseason game. Sure, it's preseason, but that was a hell of a play, and not out of the ordinary for them. Several writers have brought up this point.

So as I've said earlier in this topic: I wouldn't be at all shocked if Davis surpassed Diggs for TDs this year. I'm not saying it's likely, but there's a combination of factors here that could lead to a better than normal TD total. It's a unique situation, and it's difficult to apply "normal" expectations when you have something like this.
 
Really? When they had signed Sanders early in the 2021 FA period to a 1 yr $6M deal? And you're a 2nd year 4th rounder? We're going to hold it against Davis that he didn't beat Sanders out of a job 3 months earlier?
I think it is more than fair to compare a 36 year old vet on a small 1 year deal to a 22 year old 4th round pick in year two. I like Davis and think he has huge upside. Hence why I called him a possible make your season player. I just think there are some warning signs as well. The biggest being the low number of receptions even after Sanders was being phased out.
 
Sanders was on a 1 year deal, he was brought in to help teach these young WR's the game. He was never beating anyone of their job. Ever since McDermott and Beane took over, they've never just handed players the starting role, regardless of position. They make you earn the position. Part of Davis 'earning' the position was to watch and learn from a vet who's been in the league for more than 10 years.
It's no different than school. You want to graduate top of your class? make all that $$$$??? You gotta earn it.
Trust. The. Process.
Totally fair but we are talking in 1 year going from trying to prove he's better than a 36 year old vet to being a top 20 WR for fantasy. That's a big jump. I have no doubt he is a great big play guy. I am just wondering if he gets enough targets to warrant WR20 like we see in FFPC. I think you can still get him closer to WR26-30 in most drafts which is where I do like the value a bit more. Again, great play and someone I am targeting at the right price because of the huge upside. That said, it's very easy to see how he could be a major disappointment.
 
I am just wondering if he gets enough targets to warrant WR20 like we see in FFPC. I think you can still get him closer to WR26-30 in most drafts which is where I do like the value a bit more. Again, great play and someone I am targeting at the right price because of the huge upside. That said, it's very easy to see how he could be a major disappointment.
His head coach loves him. Like, LOVES him. He's spent the entire off-season talking him up - his weight gain, warrior mentality, how hard he works, and how excited he is to scheme him the ball.

Most recently he reportedly confirmed that he'd be on the field for 90% of the snaps.

Kinda feels like a lot of arrows pointing in the same direction in terms of targets.
 
Drafters are consistently taking Davis ahead of ADP
And also consistently taking Davis after ADP. That's how Averages work ;)
Except his ADP keeps climbing and climbing, which I also posted above (like 2 pages ago to be fair) from 4 different sources. If he is consistently climbing, it means drafters are consistently taking him ahead of ADP. Which means you have to reach if you want him. I've only done so a couple times but almost every time I have said to myself I'll wait til it comes back to me, he is already gone. Tough nut to crack.
 
Drafters are consistently taking Davis ahead of ADP
And also consistently taking Davis after ADP. That's how Averages work ;)
Except his ADP keeps climbing and climbing, which I also posted above (like 2 pages ago to be fair) from 4 different sources. If he is consistently climbing, it means drafters are consistently taking him ahead of ADP. Which means you have to reach if you want him. I've only done so a couple times but almost every time I have said to myself I'll wait til it comes back to me, he is already gone. Tough nut to crack.
Climbing and climbing in FFPC. In normal PPR, it's climbing but not by a lot like @Chaka mentioned. Again, let's just see where he is being taken this week in non FFPC drafts, but I'm confident you don't need to waste a 4th on this guy in all non FFPC leagues.
 
It's just an absurd take. Gabe Davis COULD have 15 touchdowns. I COULD be on the moon tomorrow, but it's certainly unlikely.
Could you be on the moon tomorrow? Is there a pathway to that outcome other than "Act of God"?
I think it would be an Act of God if Davis got 15 TDs lol
Or he'll have 15 by week 14. One of the 2. :wink:
Well then I'll likely win my league since he's my WR3 :P
 
It's just an absurd take. Gabe Davis COULD have 15 touchdowns. I COULD be on the moon tomorrow, but it's certainly unlikely.
Could you be on the moon tomorrow? Is there a pathway to that outcome other than "Act of God"?
I think it would be an Act of God if Davis got 15 TDs lol
Or he'll have 15 by week 14. One of the 2. :wink:
Well then I'll likely win my league since he's my WR3 :P
Go us! :pickle:
 
I think it would be an Act of God if Davis got 15 TDs lol
It's unlikely for any WR to hit 15TDs so let's reframe it.

I think there is a strong argument that Davis leads the Bills in receiving TDs. It's not like Diggs has ever been a big TD guy.
 
I think it would be an Act of God if Davis got 15 TDs lol
It's unlikely for any WR to hit 15TDs so let's reframe it.

I think there is a strong argument that Davis leads the Bills in receiving TDs. It's not like Diggs has ever been a big TD guy.
Guess it's hard for me to quantify "strong argument". The odds are not in his favour for him to lead the team in TDs. Could it happen? Absolutely. Gun to your head, which WR do you say leads the team in TDs? I thin most would say Diggs.
 
His head coach loves him. Like, LOVES him. He's spent the entire off-season talking him up - his weight gain, warrior mentality, how hard he works, and how excited he is to scheme him the ball.

Most recently he reportedly confirmed that he'd be on the field for 90% of the snaps.

Kinda feels like a lot of arrows pointing in the same direction in terms of targets.
Hype from coaches generally isn't something I put top much stock in. Same for offseason work out videos. They are good things but just because he's putting his workouts on IG or whatever doesn't make them better than workouts other players are doing privately. As for 90% snap share, that would be impressive and mean he is now the #1 WR in Buffalo. Diggs hasn't hit that mark either of the last 2 years. Only 5 WRs in the NFL averaged 90% of the snaps in their games played.
 
His head coach loves him. Like, LOVES him. He's spent the entire off-season talking him up - his weight gain, warrior mentality, how hard he works, and how excited he is to scheme him the ball.

Most recently he reportedly confirmed that he'd be on the field for 90% of the snaps.

Kinda feels like a lot of arrows pointing in the same direction in terms of targets.
Hype from coaches generally isn't something I put top much stock in. Same for offseason work out videos. They are good things but just because he's putting his workouts on IG or whatever doesn't make them better than workouts other players are doing privately. As for 90% snap share, that would be impressive and mean he is now the #1 WR in Buffalo. Diggs hasn't hit that mark either of the last 2 years. Only 5 WRs in the NFL averaged 90% of the snaps in their games played.
I'm not saying he's going to get 90%
I'm not saying everything his coach is saying will come to fruition.
I'm just saying, in addition to his increased usage on the field as 2021 went on, his terrific string of games in the playoffs, and BUF not bringing in a significant FA WR or drafting one, along with his coaches talking him up the stars seem to be aligned for a breakout season.

It's just reading the tea leaves.
 
I think it would be an Act of God if Davis got 15 TDs lol
It's unlikely for any WR to hit 15TDs so let's reframe it.

I think there is a strong argument that Davis leads the Bills in receiving TDs. It's not like Diggs has ever been a big TD guy.
Guess it's hard for me to quantify "strong argument". The odds are not in his favour for him to lead the team in TDs. Could it happen? Absolutely. Gun to your head, which WR do you say leads the team in TDs? I thin most would say Diggs.
Diggs has a career high of 10 TDs, despite amazing ability he's never been a big TD guy. It happens, Andre Johnson, Keyshawn Johnson, some other Johnson's etc.

Davis had 6 TDs in limited regular season action and 5 more in the playoffs. Some guys have a nose for the end zone.

If he is officially the #2WR I favor him to lead the WRs in TDs, not sure he outperforms Knox in that department though.
 
Davis had 6 TDs in limited regular season action and 5 more in the playoffs. Some guys have a nose for the end zone.

If he is officially the #2WR I favor him to lead the WRs in TDs, not sure he outperforms Knox in that department though.
This. And some QBs have a knack for finding that guy.

If Davis indeed has that rare combination, this could be a special season with prolific results.

...or it's Aug 22nd and we're all just bored and speculating wildly. One of the two. :suds:
 
I remember Waldman was discussing him on the Audible a couple months ago and boldly declared that Davis wasn’t a player that you had to scheme for, and that the only reason he had such a monster game against KC was because the defense was focused on stopping Diggs and Knox.

I suspect Matt would like that episode back.
 
I remember Waldman was discussing him on the Audible a couple months ago and boldly declared that Davis wasn’t a player that you had to scheme for, and that the only reason he had such a monster game against KC was because the defense was focused on stopping Diggs and Knox.

I suspect Matt would like that episode back.
Why? He might be right. None of us really has any idea what kind of a player Davis really is.
 
Diggs has a career high of 10 TDs, despite amazing ability he's never been a big TD guy. It happens, Andre Johnson, Keyshawn Johnson, some other Johnson's etc.
lol dude, Diggs was #6 in the entire NFL in TD's last year
Yes, with a career high of 10.
Yes but 10 is huge. Chase was the only one in the entire AFC with more.
10 is great, which is why I moved away from the whole 15 TD thing, that's crazy. Knox had 9 in 14 games and Davis had 6 on significantly fewer snaps.

I can definitely make an argument for Diggs to lead the team in receiving TDs again, he's the lead WR without question. But my argument for him to lead the team in TDs would be that Davis performs well and draws more coverage allowing Diggs a couple more uncontested opportunities near the end zone.
 
Diggs has a career high of 10 TDs, despite amazing ability he's never been a big TD guy. It happens, Andre Johnson, Keyshawn Johnson, some other Johnson's etc.
lol dude, Diggs was #6 in the entire NFL in TD's last year
Yes, with a career high of 10.
Yes but 10 is huge. Chase was the only one in the entire AFC with more.
10 is great, which is why I moved away from the whole 15 TD thing, that's crazy. Knox had 9 in 14 games and Davis had 6 on significantly fewer snaps.

I can definitely make an argument for Diggs to lead the team in receiving TDs again, he's the lead WR without question. But my argument for him to lead the team in TDs would be that Davis performs well and draws more coverage allowing Diggs a couple more uncontested opportunities near the end zone.
So you think they both can get 10.
 
Diggs has a career high of 10 TDs, despite amazing ability he's never been a big TD guy. It happens, Andre Johnson, Keyshawn Johnson, some other Johnson's etc.
lol dude, Diggs was #6 in the entire NFL in TD's last year
Yes, with a career high of 10.
Yes but 10 is huge. Chase was the only one in the entire AFC with more.
10 is great, which is why I moved away from the whole 15 TD thing, that's crazy. Knox had 9 in 14 games and Davis had 6 on significantly fewer snaps.

I can definitely make an argument for Diggs to lead the team in receiving TDs again, he's the lead WR without question. But my argument for him to lead the team in TDs would be that Davis performs well and draws more coverage allowing Diggs a couple more uncontested opportunities near the end zone.
So you think they both can get 10.
I think TDs are the most difficult stat to project.
 
Interesting time to revisit the valuation question:

1. What is Gabe Davis worth in dynasty PPR leagues?
2. Do you see that value as buying at his ceiling, or the last time you'll be able to reasonably afford Gabe Davis before he breaks out this season?

Curious how the FBG community feels on this one.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top