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WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
eighsse2
Footballguy
So I'm guessing most people would not like this deal for Wilson, but just curious what people would think. Dynasty, PPR.
I give Smith-Njigba, Higgins, and the 1.11, all for Garrett Wilson.
The hope is that Wilson is the superstar we all expect, once he has a quarterback throwing to him. Higgins has always been really good, but never a monster. Smith-Njigba, jury out. #11 pick, obviously no one knows but a solid chance at a very good player.
Our lineup is just Q R R W W F K D, so a top tier guy is just worth a whole lot more than a "really good" guy. Always like to stack up guys to get the biggest piece in the deal, but I know it's a big overpay. Already have a starting lineup of Hurts, Lamb, AJ Brown, Bijan, Gibbs, Etienne, but looking for one more stud for some security and fill-in work.
I give Smith-Njigba, Higgins, and the 1.11, all for Garrett Wilson.
The hope is that Wilson is the superstar we all expect, once he has a quarterback throwing to him. Higgins has always been really good, but never a monster. Smith-Njigba, jury out. #11 pick, obviously no one knows but a solid chance at a very good player.
Our lineup is just Q R R W W F K D, so a top tier guy is just worth a whole lot more than a "really good" guy. Always like to stack up guys to get the biggest piece in the deal, but I know it's a big overpay. Already have a starting lineup of Hurts, Lamb, AJ Brown, Bijan, Gibbs, Etienne, but looking for one more stud for some security and fill-in work.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
I got him for Ken Walker midway through the season.
Perfect purchase for my rebuilding team.
Perfect purchase for my rebuilding team.
efactor
Footballguy
With your team and the starting lineup requirements, it's a good deal IMO. Nice to have depth but you're still in good shape and with a young group like that, you have time to stock up on depth pieces over the next few years. Did a very similar deal for Tyreek during this last season, and although he's older, I took the same mindset of having the superstar player vs 2 very good players and a later round 1st rounder. Sometimes you have to overpay to get your guy. Been trying to get Wilson and offering what I consider an overpay to make it happen, but so far, no go.
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efactor
Footballguy
efactor
Footballguy
Ha. I just offered the #3 overall and Stevenson and got a quick rejection with no counter. Tough crowd
eighsse2
Footballguy
Funny to ever think of Wilson as "my guy", because I drafted him as a rookie, and used him as the big piece in a deal to get Gibbs. Now trying to get him back, haha. Or any top young WR, really.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Not quite so cut and dry. 14 team standard scoring where RB's generally hold a bit more value. Still good to get off an RB for what looks like a premium WR though.
efactor
Footballguy
Assumed PPR so that definitely makes a difference, but getting a young WR who has shown elite ability for a RB who plays for a team that just drafted another RB in the 2nd round is still a really good deal IMO. But yeah, not quite the fleece it would have been in PPR scoring.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Book 160 targets. I'm drafting 11th / 14th in my redraft league and he's the guy I'm hoping is there at 14.
Seems high. I don't think I would take him there. Maybe end of 2nd early 3rd but I have no idea what ADP says.
He seems to be going at the 1/2 turn and has not gotten to 14 in the Underdog drafts I have been in.
I guess that means I won't be getting him this year...hahha
-OZ-
Footballguy
FBG mock, 16 team I took him 2.06 / 22nd player. After Adams, before MHjr and Evans.
I have him in both my dynasty teams and would look to acquire if I didn’t.
I like him in dynasty but I don't like him in redraft. Too much risk in redraft at this point for that price point.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
I don't have him in my 10 team, 10 player keeper, but have been trying to acquire him. The Wilson owner in my league used to own Trey McBride, and loves him. I own him now. Thinking of offering McBride, One of Addison/Higgins for Wilson, but not sure if that is enough.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I guess. He was basically a wr2 last year with arguably the worst QB play in the league.
I had him last year and he cost me games. His cost was higher than a WR2 output (he finished 33 in my league so more of a WR3) and he had some really bad games. Yes, it was due to some very poor QB performances but Rodgers is another year older and no guarantee to last the season so you could see a similar QB effort next year too.
Like I said, the draft capital to get him doesn't justify the risk to me (in redraft).
Tyrod Taylor is a pretty huge upgrade from Zach Wilson/Tim Boyle/Trevor Siemian. Hell, direct snapping to Breece Hall would probably have been an upgrade from that ragtag group of CFL talent.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Unpossible. Tyrod and even Jordan Travis >>>>> Zach Wilson
Ok.....maybe similar wasn't the right term. But you could see a less than ideal QB performance. Like the talent of Wilson just don't like the redraft cost.
All my leagues last year I drew late 1's I was targeting him or Lamb, with Wilson my first priority. By a few weeks before the season they were my 7th and 8th ranked players, had them both over players like Diggs, AJB and ASB.
After a slow start with Lamb things worked out great on that end but I recall being shell shocked when Rodgers went down as I knew my first round investment had just turned into the type of player that if I knew Rodgers was out I'd not have been looking at for 2-3 rounds later, and still would have drafted him to high. I still feel like if Rodgers had stayed healthy the only one of those WR's in hindsight I should have chosen over Wilson was ASB.
I only mention that to say I'm back on board with Wilson, I'm not turned off by last season. Earlier this off-season I'd been holding off because they kept saying they wanted to get him more help in terms of improved secondary WR options but I don't generally view that as a positive for fantasy production. Mike Williams though, he's the ideal kind of WR2 you want.
I recall the mind meld he and Rodgers had last year in camp and that one preseason game. Expect that to return, got zero concerns on Rodgers achillles or ability right now, and believe he'll a top 5 targeted WR with Rodgers throwing to him. I got him as my 10th ranked overall player right now, a drop from last year but that mainly has to do with ascension of others.
I really only got two negatives. Despite the horrendous QB play I do think volume should have helped Wilson more then it did but that ties into the biggest negative. Hackett. He blows and he failed IMO to utilize Wilson properly, did not create nearly enough YAC opportunies for him which is one of his stronger skill sets. As we all know Hackett only has a job because of Rodgers and it's really Rodgers offense, so really Wilson is just not getting a QB upgrade he's essentialy getting an OC upgrade becase it's Rodgers offense and he's the one that knows how to run it.
After a slow start with Lamb things worked out great on that end but I recall being shell shocked when Rodgers went down as I knew my first round investment had just turned into the type of player that if I knew Rodgers was out I'd not have been looking at for 2-3 rounds later, and still would have drafted him to high. I still feel like if Rodgers had stayed healthy the only one of those WR's in hindsight I should have chosen over Wilson was ASB.
I only mention that to say I'm back on board with Wilson, I'm not turned off by last season. Earlier this off-season I'd been holding off because they kept saying they wanted to get him more help in terms of improved secondary WR options but I don't generally view that as a positive for fantasy production. Mike Williams though, he's the ideal kind of WR2 you want.
I recall the mind meld he and Rodgers had last year in camp and that one preseason game. Expect that to return, got zero concerns on Rodgers achillles or ability right now, and believe he'll a top 5 targeted WR with Rodgers throwing to him. I got him as my 10th ranked overall player right now, a drop from last year but that mainly has to do with ascension of others.
I really only got two negatives. Despite the horrendous QB play I do think volume should have helped Wilson more then it did but that ties into the biggest negative. Hackett. He blows and he failed IMO to utilize Wilson properly, did not create nearly enough YAC opportunies for him which is one of his stronger skill sets. As we all know Hackett only has a job because of Rodgers and it's really Rodgers offense, so really Wilson is just not getting a QB upgrade he's essentialy getting an OC upgrade becase it's Rodgers offense and he's the one that knows how to run it.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Unpopular opinion perhaps but I don’t see much fall off for GW if Tyrod were to start many games. TT has made lesser WRs successful when he plays.
RC94
Footballguy
I'm the opposite - I like him in a redraft. I don't think Rodgers gets injured like that again this year, and they seriously upgraded the backup if they need him. However, Rodgers is 40 and the Jets have a long and storied history of failing to identify and develop good rookie QBs. I'm concerned about Wilson for the bulk of his prime years since Rodgers most likely won't be the QB and history tells us that the Jets QB play will go down to backup levels again.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Yeah it’s gonna be a couple be a good 8 weeks before we have solid ADP numbers, but rn Wilson is WR8/11th overall in ADP, WR7/10th in ECR. Top 24 faux ADP in full PPR:
- CMC
- Lamb
- Hill
- Chase (ECR 5
- JJ (ECR 6)
- ARSB (ECR 4)
- Bijan (ECR 8
- Hall (ECR 7)
- AJB
- Nacua (ECR 11)
- Wilson (ECR 10)
- Gibbs
- London (ECR 21)
- MHJ (ECR 19)
- JT (ECR 13)
- Olave
- Adams (ECR 15)
- Aiyuk (ECR 20)
- Collins (ECR 31)
- Waddle (ECR 26)
- Barkley (ECR 14)
- Evans (ECR 24)
- Samuel (ECR 33)
- Nabers (ECR 49)
Top 24 ADP summary by format:
PPR ADP 18 WR 6 RB
0.5 ADP 15 WR 8 RB 1 QB
STD 14 WR 8 RB 1 QB 1 TE
Who?
A minor concern I have with Wilson (not enough to drop him down ranks a lot, more of a thought really) is that he's not as talented as he's thought to be, and he's being somewhat over projected just because he had a bad QB.
Seeing Wilson go in roughly the same area as a more proven top guy like Puka, or a more proven and more talented guy in AJ Brown, who both already did it with their current QBs, makes me a little nervous about Wilson there. I'm not 100% confident he's an elite guy, or just a very good guy like a Terry McLaurin who is getting too much benefit of the doubt.
I'm not really a fan of Wilson going ahead of Jonathan Taylor either, who I think has a world more upside, and has also already proven more. I don't dislike Wilson at all, but I think he should be more of a mid-2nd than in the 9-12 range.
ETA: With 8 WRs in the top-12, I'm wondering if we aren't overcorrecting due to last season at the RB position. As recently as 2022, if you took a top RB it mostly panned out.
Seeing Wilson go in roughly the same area as a more proven top guy like Puka, or a more proven and more talented guy in AJ Brown, who both already did it with their current QBs, makes me a little nervous about Wilson there. I'm not 100% confident he's an elite guy, or just a very good guy like a Terry McLaurin who is getting too much benefit of the doubt.
I'm not really a fan of Wilson going ahead of Jonathan Taylor either, who I think has a world more upside, and has also already proven more. I don't dislike Wilson at all, but I think he should be more of a mid-2nd than in the 9-12 range.
ETA: With 8 WRs in the top-12, I'm wondering if we aren't overcorrecting due to last season at the RB position. As recently as 2022, if you took a top RB it mostly panned out.
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I think Puka is also overrated to some degree. Seeing you reference him as "proven" is interesting to me. He has played one year and had some advantageous things fall his way last year. I am not saying he isn't good or that he shouldn't be getting the accolades but I do think he is far from "proven" and does have some risk of a drop off. I am amazed at how high he is being valued. To the point that he has to hit his ceiling to even come close to where he is being valued. Because of that he is another guy I likely won't have any shares of. Someone else will always be higher on him than me.
Now if he comes out this year and does something similar with a healthy Kupp there for 17-18 games he is starting to earn that proven moniker.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Sammy Watkins had his best year with Ty. A few giants had decent games with him last year.
Thanks for answering but I can't get behind your premise.
Watkins did not do well at all with Taylor. Sure he had a 60/1000 season and to be fair that was his best season but that's hardly anything to hang you hat on after that season I think Watkins was just never the same after this foot injuries so really limited data.
Put me down as saying I see Taylor as almost no upgrade on Z Wilson and the scrubs from last season as it relates to G Wilson. The OL might be way better to that will help but not Taylor. I'm not saying Taylor is not better then Z Wilson, he is of course, but in the context of stats for G Wilson I'm saying he's a minimal upgrade at best. Why? Because Zach Wilson did not have much of a plan, he was looking for Garrett or the bail out with Breece. Taylor has historcially held onto the ball much more, less prone to mistakes and forcing the ball, and while Garret's efficiency would be better with Taylor I think that would offset by a target decrease.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Fair enough, it’s why we play the game.
I’ll happily hang on to GW.
He can reasonably be slotted anywhere 10-18 imo. Similar to London, Evans, Adams.
-OZ-
Footballguy
It’s just whether the risk of Rodgers being injured is anywhere near as major as it was last year.
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Almost benchable
fightingillini
Footballguy
TEN D is pretty good. Rodgers still looks pretty rusty. Buy Wilson low.
eighsse2
Footballguy
I'm thinking buy low in dynasty. But no clue how low the owner might sell. Made some very strong offers for him over the offseason, some of which he did consider. I probably wouldn't touch those same offers today, but maybe close. This guy was hyped as clicking with Rodgers and ready to be his new Davante. Is that gonna happen? And once he has a different QB?
Dizzy
Footballguy
Yeah... some things get rusty when they get old.
I can't see Wilson being a dominant fantasy force on this team. They will be in a lot of tight ball games with minimal fireworks. No garbage time to pad the stats. No points for blocking.
irish eyes
Footballguy
Yeah I can't wait much longer in dynasty. May just have to roll the dice and try to get someone to give me the farm for him. These 6-60 & 5-50 games have become too commonplace. I mean, he has what, 7 career TDS.
Dizzy
Footballguy
He was better (for FANTASY) when his QB stunk and nobody cared that he caught a TD with 30 seconds left in a blowout.
BladeRunner
Footballguy
I don't understand how Rodgers can go from GB throwing TDs all over the place but then completely lose his mojo w/the Jets. Maybe they just need a little more time.
irish eyes
Footballguy
He's 40 & hasn't played in a long time. I personally think he's done.
