WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (1 Viewer)

[FarFromHome]

Jets passing game just gives me those bad vibes. New coach. Defensive coach. Two decent RBs. I think the defense gets better. He's gonna get targets so thats good. He's also gonna get most defensive attention. Jets and Dolphins are the two passing games im out on. Imo

 

[Bronco Billy]

I'd say to that is he might mesh better with Fields, even if they had not played together before.

They played together for 2 years at OSU. They’re not unfamiliar with each other.

 

[Chemical X]

I'd say to that is he might mesh better with Fields, even if they had not played together before.

They played together for 2 years at OSU. They’re not unfamiliar with each other.

i think he is saying that fields and him would mesh better than rodgers and him, even if wilson and fields hadn’t already played together (which we know they have).

 

[Bronco Billy]

I'd say to that is he might mesh better with Fields, even if they had not played together before.

They played together for 2 years at OSU. They’re not unfamiliar with each other.

i think he is saying that fields and him would mesh better than rodgers and him, even if wilson and fields hadn’t already played together (which we know they have).

Ah, got it. Thanks

 

[fred_1_15301]

WR11 for me.

Same problem as always. The TD upside feels limited.

Wilson is arguably the best receiver he will have ever played with.

I don't look at the roster and think "This could be one of those surprise teams." I guess that's why it's a surprise when teams do it. But I just don't see a world in which Wilson isn't succeeding short of injury.

Wilson is light years better than DJ Moore or Mooney and I don't mean that as a slight against those guys but I don't think there is anyone in the league more talented than Wilson. Not saying he is the best but he has it all.

I absolutely love the bolded. I think it's more profound than meets the eye. I *do* think this is a team that could surprise, based on my take that Fields has improved significantly each season and these are by far the best offensive weapons he has ever had. But, to the point of the bolded, they probably won't because I expect it. It's gonna be someone I don't suspect at all like Tennessee or something.

I was heckled by a couple of leaguemates in a recent startup for taking GW over MH2

Now I know who in my league actually watches football and who does not.

I was heckled today for taking him in round 3 (keep 2). The hecklers were my son and 3 nephews. I took the high road and did not remind them that I’m the only one amongst us that has made the playoffs every year.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

WR11 for me.

Same problem as always. The TD upside feels limited.

Wilson is arguably the best receiver he will have ever played with.

I don't look at the roster and think "This could be one of those surprise teams." I guess that's why it's a surprise when teams do it. But I just don't see a world in which Wilson isn't succeeding short of injury.

Wilson is light years better than DJ Moore or Mooney and I don't mean that as a slight against those guys but I don't think there is anyone in the league more talented than Wilson. Not saying he is the best but he has it all.

I absolutely love the bolded. I think it's more profound than meets the eye. I *do* think this is a team that could surprise, based on my take that Fields has improved significantly each season and these are by far the best offensive weapons he has ever had. But, to the point of the bolded, they probably won't because I expect it. It's gonna be someone I don't suspect at all like Tennessee or something.

I was heckled by a couple of leaguemates in a recent startup for taking GW over MH2

Now I know who in my league actually watches football and who does not.

I was heckled today for taking him in round 3 (keep 2). The hecklers were my son and 3 nephews. I took the high road and did not remind them that I’m the only one amongst us that has made the playoffs every year.

I like to picture them being like 11-13 years old. Like the kids in the Sandlot. You’re killing me smalls

 

[FarFromHome]

WR11 for me.

Same problem as always. The TD upside feels limited.

Wilson is arguably the best receiver he will have ever played with.

I don't look at the roster and think "This could be one of those surprise teams." I guess that's why it's a surprise when teams do it. But I just don't see a world in which Wilson isn't succeeding short of injury.

Wilson is light years better than DJ Moore or Mooney and I don't mean that as a slight against those guys but I don't think there is anyone in the league more talented than Wilson. Not saying he is the best but he has it all.

I absolutely love the bolded. I think it's more profound than meets the eye. I *do* think this is a team that could surprise, based on my take that Fields has improved significantly each season and these are by far the best offensive weapons he has ever had. But, to the point of the bolded, they probably won't because I expect it. It's gonna be someone I don't suspect at all like Tennessee or something.

I was heckled by a couple of leaguemates in a recent startup for taking GW over MH2

Now I know who in my league actually watches football and who does not.

I was heckled today for taking him in round 3 (keep 2). The hecklers were my son and 3 nephews. I took the high road and did not remind them that I’m the only one amongst us that has made the playoffs every year.

I like to picture them being like 11-13 years old. Like the kids in the Sandlot. You’re killing me smalls

All 3 of the wrs mentioned are I the same zip code value wise for me for this year. These different opinions make this fun. I rank em:

Harrison. Massive disappointment last year. Still had 8 scores. I just believe in his talent. Call me silly.

Wilson. Like his talent. Needed 154 targets to get 1100 yards. Now he gets 154 targets from Fields. Meh.

Moore. Just a different type of animal. Crazy that he is nearly 30 lbs bigger than Wilson. Dudes a baller but we know what he is. A really good wr3. Maybe Ben can make him a wr2. Maybe

 

[fred_1_15301]

WR11 for me.

Same problem as always. The TD upside feels limited.

Wilson is arguably the best receiver he will have ever played with.

I don't look at the roster and think "This could be one of those surprise teams." I guess that's why it's a surprise when teams do it. But I just don't see a world in which Wilson isn't succeeding short of injury.

Wilson is light years better than DJ Moore or Mooney and I don't mean that as a slight against those guys but I don't think there is anyone in the league more talented than Wilson. Not saying he is the best but he has it all.

I absolutely love the bolded. I think it's more profound than meets the eye. I *do* think this is a team that could surprise, based on my take that Fields has improved significantly each season and these are by far the best offensive weapons he has ever had. But, to the point of the bolded, they probably won't because I expect it. It's gonna be someone I don't suspect at all like Tennessee or something.

I was heckled by a couple of leaguemates in a recent startup for taking GW over MH2

Now I know who in my league actually watches football and who does not.

I was heckled today for taking him in round 3 (keep 2). The hecklers were my son and 3 nephews. I took the high road and did not remind them that I’m the only one amongst us that has made the playoffs every year.

I like to picture them being like 11-13 years old. Like the kids in the Sandlot. You’re killing me smalls

I’m not going to say how old my son is but yeah he’s 11.

 

[DeaLerZ]

He might be the biggest non-injury related ADP faller in the past few weeks. Is it justified? Perhaps, valid reasons for sure, but I'm having a hard time not tapping on him in my drafts in the range he goes now.

I want him to fall to the 4th or 5th in my home league tomorrow. His target share is gonna be amazing.

Yeah I am targeting him too. I am not sure why everyone is hating on him so much. Fields and Wilson already have rapport together from college that people seem to forget about for some reason. Fields when he was last a full time starter in Chicago helped DJ Moore have a 96 Rec 1364 Yds 8 Td season. That was also with Fields missing a couple of games, and the first 3 games of the season that year the Bears offensive play calling was abysmall and didn't even throw the ball to Moore.

I just think 100 rec, 1300+ yds, and 6-10 TDs is a very realistic stat line for Wilson this year. They are even in similar situations to Fields/Moore in Chicago that year where there is literally no one behind G.Wilson to throw too.

 

[menobrown]

He might be the biggest non-injury related ADP faller in the past few weeks. Is it justified? Perhaps, valid reasons for sure, but I'm having a hard time not tapping on him in my drafts in the range he goes now.

I want him to fall to the 4th or 5th in my home league tomorrow. His target share is gonna be amazing.

Yeah I am targeting him too. I am not sure why everyone is hating on him so much. Fields and Wilson already have rapport together from college that people seem to forget about for some reason. Fields when he was last a full time starter in Chicago helped DJ Moore have a 96 Rec 1364 Yds 8 Td season. That was also with Fields missing a couple of games, and the first 3 games of the season that year the Bears offensive play calling was abysmall and didn't even throw the ball to Moore.

I just think 100 rec, 1300+ yds, and 6-10 TDs is a very realistic stat line for Wilson this year. They are even in similar situations to Fields/Moore in Chicago that year where there is literally no one behind G.Wilson to throw too.

The bolded could also serve as a Mason Taylor message.

I've now drafted Wilson in 3 FFPC Main Events in the mid 4th, in the WR 18-20 range. In May of this same contest his ADP was 2.11 and WR12. Said this previously but one of the larger drops for a player I can recall not related to anything like health for him or his supporting cast or a major trade shaking up the rotation. Apparently people just saw Fields training camp reports and said "I'm out".

 

[FarFromHome]

I just think 100 rec, 1300+ yds, and 6-10 TDs is a very realistic stat line for Wilson this year.

In three years he has averaged 156 targets a year. Targets have been there, so I can't see this big bump in targets to project 1300 yards. His high is 1100. I can see that. I can see 8 tds. Will be interesting to see Glenn's approach in the red zone. I just see them running with the backs and Fields when they get close. Just feel that having Fields throw at 3rd and goal at the 5 isn't gonna be where they feel comfortable. All my opinion of course. I like Wilson. Dudes gonna get his continued high target numbers. Going at that wr15 ADP seems about right to me.

100 receptions
1100
8 tds

Solid solid wr2.

 

[DeaLerZ]

I just think 100 rec, 1300+ yds, and 6-10 TDs is a very realistic stat line for Wilson this year.

In three years he has averaged 156 targets a year. Targets have been there, so I can't see this big bump in targets to project 1300 yards. His high is 1100. I can see that. I can see 8 tds. Will be interesting to see Glenn's approach in the red zone. I just see them running with the backs and Fields when they get close. Just feel that having Fields throw at 3rd and goal at the 5 isn't gonna be where they feel comfortable. All my opinion of course. I like Wilson. Dudes gonna get his continued high target numbers. Going at that wr15 ADP seems about right to me.

100 receptions
1100
8 tds

Solid solid wr2.

Yeah very possible

 

[ericttspikes]

He might be the biggest non-injury related ADP faller in the past few weeks. Is it justified? Perhaps, valid reasons for sure, but I'm having a hard time not tapping on him in my drafts in the range he goes now.

I want him to fall to the 4th or 5th in my home league tomorrow. His target share is gonna be amazing.

Yeah I am targeting him too. I am not sure why everyone is hating on him so much. Fields and Wilson already have rapport together from college that people seem to forget about for some reason. Fields when he was last a full time starter in Chicago helped DJ Moore have a 96 Rec 1364 Yds 8 Td season. That was also with Fields missing a couple of games, and the first 3 games of the season that year the Bears offensive play calling was abysmall and didn't even throw the ball to Moore.

I just think 100 rec, 1300+ yds, and 6-10 TDs is a very realistic stat line for Wilson this year. They are even in similar situations to Fields/Moore in Chicago that year where there is literally no one behind G.Wilson to throw too.

The bolded could also serve as a Mason Taylor message.

I've now drafted Wilson in 3 FFPC Main Events in the mid 4th, in the WR 18-20 range. In May of this same contest his ADP was 2.11 and WR12. Said this previously but one of the larger drops for a player I can recall not related to anything like health for him or his supporting cast or a major trade shaking up the rotation. Apparently people just saw Fields training camp reports and said "I'm out".

I cautiously like Wilson this year. The bear cases I've heard for Wilson is usually from stats guys. As I understand it, the Jets were 5th in the NFL in pass attempts last year and the expectation is that goes way down this year. Fields last year in Chicago, Bears were 27th in attempts. What they gloss over is that DJ Moore was WR #6 in 2023 and caught 96 balls. So who knows.

 

[rockaction]

I am not feeling him at that 15-20 ADP because of a host of things. One of them is that they want to run the ball all the time. The other is Fields. The other is that Garrett Wilson isn't as good as people make him out to be. He makes some spectacular catches but he's not the most technical of route runners and his yards after the catch display a physicality where he looks like he has Gumby limbs. It's awkward. He's excellent but there are better.

That said, there is absolutely nobody there but him and he should see almost every target there is.

 

[zeeshan2]

Some of my favorite stats regarding Wilson and why he's a fade at the 3rd round ADP:

-Fields is 29th in dropbacks per game since he's been an nfl starter
-Wilson was already WR8 in targets per game and fifth in total targets last year yet finished just WR23 in points per game; he was WR35 the season before.

 

[Aznflyer14]

As much as I love Wilson, I think he's probably mid 3rd or early 4th round. By all accounts, I fully expect Jets to be run-heavy this year. But I cannot overlook the per-existing timing and chemistry between Wilson and Fields. I do expect Fields to target Wilson on frequent basis. More than likely, there would be moments of "eff it, he's there somewhere."

 

[menobrown]

Some of my favorite stats regarding Wilson and why he's a fade at the 3rd round ADP:

-Fields is 29th in dropbacks per game since he's been an nfl starter
-Wilson was already WR8 in targets per game and fifth in total targets last year yet finished just WR23 in points per game; he was WR35 the season before.

Just for a different view on these stats I think those use week 18 and may not be PPR but it looks this way if you pull out week 18 and go full PPR.

In term of totals I'm showing him at WR4 in total targets and WR9 in total points. This is pretty solid.

Gets worse in per game where he was WR3 in targets per game for a WR17 finish.

For his cost none of this looks bad to me.

I'll add if we want to knock his efficiency that he averaged more points per target then Nabers.

Wilson's target quality sucked. His catchable target rate per Player Profiler was 87th in the league. And while I love Nabers and am not trying to pick on him I am pointing out how he does not seem to get the same negative reaction for under performing on a per target basis like Wilson has. So I'm sure their are two obvious counters to that and one is Nabers was a rookie and has more growth. Fair. The other is he should have a better QB and while that should be the case I'd point out that Nabers had a higher catch rate, by about 10%, over Wlison last year.

This all goes back to Wilson and Rodgers being a bad fit. Poor in terms of style and quality of targets. Wilson had over 20% of his targets on the season in two games. I'll sound crazy but I'll say it anyway but these were the two games before they acquired Adams when he was faking an injury on the Raiders and was available by trade and I think Rodgers just threw it to Wilson a ton because he knew they were going to get Adams at which point he'd relegate Wilson to #2 and he wanted to pacify before this took place.

Everyone keeps saying the Jets will run more and they will but Wilson might end up with #1 target share in the league, a small pie but he'll have a king size piece of it. He's going to get his targets and despite Fields being a worse overall QB then Rodgers it does not mean Wilson's target quality is going to stay the same awful level or get worse in fact I expect improvement.

 

[TLEF316]

Jets fan. Just snagged him as my WR3 at pick 5.3 in a 1/2 PPR league. Left me in a TOUGH spot for Rb2 (I took Gibbs at 1.3 and Lamar in the 3rd) but just couldn't pass up the value.

Yeah, Fields might stink. But Wilson had 1K yards with Zack Wilson throwing it. I like my chances.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Was not planning on drafting him but he fell too far to ignore.

 

[N Zone]

I targeted him and got him in an auction draft for $20. ppr My WR2.

 

[urbanhack]

Was not planning on drafting him but he fell too far to ignore.

Same. WR20 off the board in ppr with bonus for long TDs.

 

[wgoldsph]

Jets fan. Just snagged him as my WR3 at pick 5.3 in a 1/2 PPR league. Left me in a TOUGH spot for Rb2 (I took Gibbs at 1.3 and Lamar in the 3rd) but just couldn't pass up the value.

Yeah, Fields might stink. But Wilson had 1K yards with Zack Wilson throwing it. I like my chances.

This is what everyone who fades him forgets - the guy has played with horrid qbs his entire career. It's not like suddenly he's getting a downgrade from Mike White and Tim Boyle.

At the very very very least, he's in the running for most targets this season.

 

[rockaction]

An interesting stat but maybe not as meaningful as this guy thinks (but it does confirm my own priors, and I see why he emphasized it). I'm going through this guy's Twitter account and some of the stats are staggering (they had this guy on a Player Profiler show). My own opinion is that it's only seven guys, but he is clearly not in the upper echelon of receivers. On the other hand, he is going to see targets because that's what the Jets do. Feed Garrett Wilson and ignore the need for a WR2.

https://x.com/NoFilm_Analysis/status/1960740783289721239

I Don’t Watch Film (Football Analytics)
@NoFilm_Analysis
·
Aug 27

30 Days Until Kickoff, 30 Stats You Didn’t Know
Stat #23 - Since entering the league in 2022, Garrett Wilson ranks:

First in routes run,
Second in Contested Targets, and is one of
Seven players with over 400 targets, ranking fourth with 454.

Among those 7 players with over 400 targets since 2022, Garrett Wilson ranks:

Last in receptions
Last in yards
Last in touchdowns
Last in Open Target Rate
Last in First Down Rate
Last in Touchdown Rate
Last in Target Rate