WR Jameson Williams, DET (5 Viewers)

[Pip's Invitation]

Would you guys play him over devonta smith and theilen this week?

I would - this is a revenge game for the Lions, and the weather is going to be good. If San Fran has packed it in for the year, they could put up 50.

At this rate, both teams will put up 50.

 

[need2know]

Would you guys play him over devonta smith and theilen this week?

I would - this is a revenge game for the Lions, and the weather is going to be good. If San Fran has packed it in for the year, they could put up 50.

At this rate, both teams will put up 50.

I started him. Didnt even need his points. Won it yesterday

 

[nysfl2]

Would you guys play him over devonta smith and theilen this week?

I would - this is a revenge game for the Lions, and the weather is going to be good. If San Fran has packed it in for the year, they could put up 50.

At this rate, both teams will put up 50.

I started him. Didnt even need his points. Won it yesterday

Congrats!!

 

[metoo]

What? I thought they were going to go away from him to throw to a TE in 2024. 9 yards>20+ New math
Make it make sense.

 

[jon_mx]

WR16/WR17 average and total in standard scoring
WR26/WR26 average and total in PPR scoring

But apparently winning playoff games does not count in this new fantasy world. A few people seem to hate winning playoff games. Who knew when making season projections only the first 14 weeks count.

I'm curious; did you consider that virtually no one who actually made the playoffs used Jameson as anything other than a bye week filler to get to the playoffs? And even fewer had Jameson in their lineups, barring catastrophic injuries, during the playoffs for the very, legitimate reasons that @Deamon pointed out?

Yes, he's WR26 (ish) this season and no one should try to diminish that. It semi-validates your opinion, and mine (more mine), going into the season. Take that win, maybe even be like Barry and act like you've been there.

But suggesting he was some kind of integral part to a championship team is kinda disingenuous at best dontcha think?

It's definitely not very Christmassy.

ETA: I do understand you're mostly having fun and I know Deamon isn't bothered by that kind of braggadocio but I see that kind of stuff derail threads all the time and it's not fun for anyone else.

FTR I stand by everything I said but I have to add that, the way Jameson has been trending I think he became a legitimate play for championship weekend.

Made that recco multiple times in the WSIS thread.

Putting up a couple of 25 pointers in the playoffs from a late round flex player won a good number of championships..

Expert consensus WR55....only on guy put him as high as WR36....the rest were between WR44 and WR65.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Reaching for Jamo paid off this year. Is he a 4th or 5th rounder next summer?

 

[Chaka]

Reaching for Jamo paid off this year. Is he a 4th or 5th rounder next summer?

I want to say yes but, when the Detroit defense is healthy and they have their full backfield I would be concerned about consistent volume.

 

[Deamon]

WR16/WR17 average and total in standard scoring
WR26/WR26 average and total in PPR scoring

But apparently winning playoff games does not count in this new fantasy world. A few people seem to hate winning playoff games. Who knew when making season projections only the first 14 weeks count.

I'm curious; did you consider that virtually no one who actually made the playoffs used Jameson as anything other than a bye week filler to get to the playoffs? And even fewer had Jameson in their lineups, barring catastrophic injuries, during the playoffs for the very, legitimate reasons that @Deamon pointed out?

Yes, he's WR26 (ish) this season and no one should try to diminish that. It semi-validates your opinion, and mine (more mine), going into the season. Take that win, maybe even be like Barry and act like you've been there.

But suggesting he was some kind of integral part to a championship team is kinda disingenuous at best dontcha think?

It's definitely not very Christmassy.

ETA: I do understand you're mostly having fun and I know Deamon isn't bothered by that kind of braggadocio but I see that kind of stuff derail threads all the time and it's not fun for anyone else.

FTR I stand by everything I said but I have to add that, the way Jameson has been trending I think he became a legitimate play for championship weekend.

Made that recco multiple times in the WSIS thread.

Putting up a couple of 25 pointers in the playoffs from a late round flex player won a good number of championships..

Expert consensus WR55....only on guy put him as high as WR36....the rest were between WR44 and WR65.

Lmao you're ridiculous and making things up.

Too bad he wasn't worth a 3rd round pick this year as you predicted.

 

[Deamon]

Definitely was good value this year for those of us who believed he would outperform his adp.

Not a league winner by any stretch as many others drafted lower finished higher, but solid for those who took him.

 

[Chaka]

Definitely was good value this year for those of us who believed he would outperform his adp.

Not a league winner by any stretch as many others drafted lower finished higher, but solid for those who took him.

I understand where you're coming from but, I think a lot of people would disagree, even me, who after last week pointed out, in here, he wasn't integral to getting teams to the finals. But I recognized he had legitimate value as a starter in championship games this week. I wasn't a jon_mx fanboy but I recommended him quite a lot in the WSIS start thread.

He was WR26 going into tonight and he likely bumped up after tonight. Dude likely finishes this year as a solid WR2 in PPG and total points (more impressive as he was suspended two games).

Jameson was much better than consensus/advertised this year.

 

[kutta]

WR16/WR17 average and total in standard scoring
WR26/WR26 average and total in PPR scoring

But apparently winning playoff games does not count in this new fantasy world. A few people seem to hate winning playoff games. Who knew when making season projections only the first 14 weeks count.

I'm curious; did you consider that virtually no one who actually made the playoffs used Jameson as anything other than a bye week filler to get to the playoffs? And even fewer had Jameson in their lineups, barring catastrophic injuries, during the playoffs for the very, legitimate reasons that @Deamon pointed out?

Yes, he's WR26 (ish) this season and no one should try to diminish that. It semi-validates your opinion, and mine (more mine), going into the season. Take that win, maybe even be like Barry and act like you've been there.

But suggesting he was some kind of integral part to a championship team is kinda disingenuous at best dontcha think?

It's definitely not very Christmassy.

ETA: I do understand you're mostly having fun and I know Deamon isn't bothered by that kind of braggadocio but I see that kind of stuff derail threads all the time and it's not fun for anyone else.

FTR I stand by everything I said but I have to add that, the way Jameson has been trending I think he became a legitimate play for championship weekend.

Made that recco multiple times in the WSIS thread.

Putting up a couple of 25 pointers in the playoffs from a late round flex player won a good number of championships..

Expert consensus WR55....only on guy put him as high as WR36....the rest were between WR44 and WR65.

Great call on him this year!

We’ll make it official after next week. PM me a PayPal email and I’ll send over your $100

 

[Deamon]

He was WR26 going into tonight and he likely bumped up after tonight. Dude likely finishes this year as a solid WR2 in PPG and total points (more impressive as he was suspended two games).

Jameson was much better than consensus/advertised this year.

I'd say less impressive as those 2 games he was out Goff barely even threw for 100 yards.

Agree he was better than advertised. As you know, I probably drafted him more than anyone else on these boards (drafted him in about 115 of my 160 leagues).

 

[Deamon]

Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs.- 280 PPR Points

I actually have him a touch higher at around 63-900-7 and 100 rushing. - 205 PPR Points

Finishes at 202.8. Damn, my 205 was pretty close. 280 prediction was insane.

 

[Chaka]

He was WR26 going into tonight and he likely bumped up after tonight. Dude likely finishes this year as a solid WR2 in PPG and total points (more impressive as he was suspended two games).

Jameson was much better than consensus/advertised this year.

I'd say less impressive as those 2 games he was out Goff barely even threw for 100 yards.

Agree he was better than advertised. As you know, I probably drafted him more than anyone else on these boards (drafted him in about 115 of my 160 leagues).

Oh my. 160? Wow.

It's a little weird that, knowing you are a believer in Jameson, for the most part you seem set on trying to explain away his production.

 

[Chaka]

Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs.- 280 PPR Points

I actually have him a touch higher at around 63-900-7 and 100 rushing. - 205 PPR Points

Finishes at 202.8. Damn, my 205 was pretty close. 280 prediction was insane.

He's not finished.

I know virtually all fantasy championships are done but he has another meaningful game next week. That production, good, bad or ugly counts. Particularly when it comes to evaluating Jameson going into next season.

And, yes, 280 seems incredibly ambitious.

 

[WaltonGoggins]

Love you Jamo and while no one believed me when I begged everyone to use you down the stretch while everyone said to bench you, you believed in me.

 

[WaltonGoggins]

WR16/WR17 average and total in standard scoring
WR26/WR26 average and total in PPR scoring

But apparently winning playoff games does not count in this new fantasy world. A few people seem to hate winning playoff games. Who knew when making season projections only the first 14 weeks count.

I'm curious; did you consider that virtually no one who actually made the playoffs used Jameson as anything other than a bye week filler to get to the playoffs? And even fewer had Jameson in their lineups, barring catastrophic injuries, during the playoffs for the very, legitimate reasons that @Deamon pointed out?

Yes, he's WR26 (ish) this season and no one should try to diminish that. It semi-validates your opinion, and mine (more mine), going into the season. Take that win, maybe even be like Barry and act like you've been there.

But suggesting he was some kind of integral part to a championship team is kinda disingenuous at best dontcha think?

It's definitely not very Christmassy.

ETA: I do understand you're mostly having fun and I know Deamon isn't bothered by that kind of braggadocio but I see that kind of stuff derail threads all the time and it's not fun for anyone else.

FTR I stand by everything I said but I have to add that, the way Jameson has been trending I think he became a legitimate play for championship weekend.

Made that recco multiple times in the WSIS thread.

Putting up a couple of 25 pointers in the playoffs from a late round flex player won a good number of championships..

Expert consensus WR55....only on guy put him as high as WR36....the rest were between WR44 and WR65.

Yeah can’t buy into “expert” rankings they don’t know anything. I had Jamo top 10 yet any “expert” would laugh. I’ve found “experts” usually don’t even watch football just follow the common ranking.

 

[Soulfly3]

never felt better about trading to get him for njoku.

pls let this one work out... i wanted this guy so badly since the start.

Ya, it worked out as I had hoped/expected.

 

[jon_mx]

He was WR26 going into tonight and he likely bumped up after tonight. Dude likely finishes this year as a solid WR2 in PPG and total points (more impressive as he was suspended two games).

Jameson was much better than consensus/advertised this year.

I'd say less impressive as those 2 games he was out Goff barely even threw for 100 yards.

Agree he was better than advertised. As you know, I probably drafted him more than anyone else on these boards (drafted him in about 115 of my 160 leagues).

Oh my. 160? Wow.

It's a little weird that, knowing you are a believer in Jameson, for the most part you seem set on trying to explain away his production.

Because he is hellbent on somehow proving me wrong. He comes in here and dances when Jamo is down, then 5 secons later Jamo ends up in the end zone on a 70 yard TD. Or he declares supremacy after week 15, then jamo tacks on 50 points in next two weeks. It is funny, because he cones across as so spiteful.

 

[Soulfly3]

WR23 in PPR on the season. A certified WR2 for 2024. And that with TWO games missed for suspension.

Delicious.

 

[dblock05]

Yes I don’t see the hate on Jamo. No he didn’t have 280 ppr points but he was not close to WR50

 

[Pip's Invitation]

The “experts” all missed on him. Not as bad as the guy who said he would pass on Barkley in the 8th round, but still. There’s a lot of groupthink in this industry.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Stud. League winner. Good job shark pool again.

 

[BassNBrew]

The “experts” all missed on him. Not as bad as the guy who said he would pass on Barkley in the 8th round, but still. There’s a lot of groupthink in this industry.

Experts and group think generally prove right over the long term. LOL at someone having him in the top ten coming in here and doing a victory dance.

 

[Chaka]

He was WR26 going into tonight and he likely bumped up after tonight. Dude likely finishes this year as a solid WR2 in PPG and total points (more impressive as he was suspended two games).

Jameson was much better than consensus/advertised this year.

I'd say less impressive as those 2 games he was out Goff barely even threw for 100 yards.

Agree he was better than advertised. As you know, I probably drafted him more than anyone else on these boards (drafted him in about 115 of my 160 leagues).

Oh my. 160? Wow.

It's a little weird that, knowing you are a believer in Jameson, for the most part you seem set on trying to explain away his production.

Because he is hellbent on somehow proving me wrong. He comes in here and dances when Jamo is down, then 5 secons later Jamo ends up in the end zone on a 70 yard TD. Or he declares supremacy after week 15, then jamo tacks on 50 points in next two weeks. It is funny, because he cones across as so spiteful.

Be fair, dude, the Venn diagram of when you disappear from this thread and Jamo's bad weeks is a circle.

I think you both just enjoy poking at each other. More power to you, I guess.

 

[Chaka]

In my two PPR leagues he is sitting at WR20 & WR23 in total points.

WR21 & WR24 in PPG.

 

[Deamon]

Yes I don’t see the hate on Jamo. No he didn’t have 280 ppr points but he was not close to WR50

No one in here had him at wr50

 

[Deamon]

WR23 in PPR on the season. A certified WR2 for 2024. And that with TWO games missed for suspension.

Delicious.

His ppg ranking was actually worse than his total points ranking.

 

[Deamon]

He was WR26 going into tonight and he likely bumped up after tonight. Dude likely finishes this year as a solid WR2 in PPG and total points (more impressive as he was suspended two games).

Jameson was much better than consensus/advertised this year.

I'd say less impressive as those 2 games he was out Goff barely even threw for 100 yards.

Agree he was better than advertised. As you know, I probably drafted him more than anyone else on these boards (drafted him in about 115 of my 160 leagues).

Oh my. 160? Wow.

It's a little weird that, knowing you are a believer in Jameson, for the most part you seem set on trying to explain away his production.

Because he is hellbent on somehow proving me wrong. He comes in here and dances when Jamo is down, then 5 secons later Jamo ends up in the end zone on a 70 yard TD. Or he declares supremacy after week 15, then jamo tacks on 50 points in next two weeks. It is funny, because he cones across as so spiteful.

Be fair, dude, the Venn diagram of when you disappear from this thread and Jamo's bad weeks is a circle.

I think you both just enjoy poking at each other. More power to you, I guess.

Yep, he drops off the map completely in his Bad stretch then sprints here on his good weeks.

And I was always a believer in him being good value this year. Jon's 1400 yard, should be taken round 3, 280 fantasy points (3 wrs did that this year) is what I rightfully thought were unrealistic and crazy predictions.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Last 7 g (post-HOU)

7

48

32

553

17.28

4

66.7%

11.52

7

29

4.14

1

5

30

17 g pace:

• 117 targets
• 78 receptions
• 1343 yards
• 10 TD
• 70 rushing & 2 TD

 

[IHEARTFF]

Last 7 g (post-HOU)

7

48

32

553

17.28

4

66.7%

11.52

7

29

4.14

1

5

30

17 g pace:

• 117 targets
• 78 receptions
• 1343 yards
• 10 TD
• 70 rushing & 2 TD

I don’t think any team besides maybe the Eagles has an answer for this

 

[EWV1]

Bold predictions can make you consider a player differently. They don't have to be 100% accurate to be right -- in the sense that they guide you to draft the player a round or two earlier than consensus to make sure you get him (in auction leagues, he would typically go fairly cheaply unless there was another truther with dough left when his name is called).

So kudos to jon_mx whose stat projection was more accurate (in terms of upside -- actual TD totals are very tough to predict) than what you may have read on ESPN or somewhere...granted the process for most is probably to extrapolate from the previous seasons which is hard to do for a player that missed so much time...so it created a buying opportunity due to the unknown factor. And of course he could have been even better if not for the suspension.

I was super high on him going into this season and got him everywhere without reading touts from this thread but that's partly because a few of my leagues have TD distance bonuses (where he is huge).

 

[Ray_T]

WR23 in PPR on the season. A certified WR2 for 2024. And that with TWO games missed for suspension.

Delicious.

when hes been on the field this year, hes been mostly pretty good.

its been a nice breakout season for him. Took him a couple years to figure out how to beat the jam at the line and to improve his route running but it looks like hes put in the work to get there. hes light years ahead of where he was when he finally got on the field during his rookie season.

biggest worry for him moving forward is with his ability to stay on the field. Lets hope he doesnt do something stupid to keep him from playing.

 

[BobbyLayne]

WR20 in our full PPR bonus league, WR18 on PPG basis. That’ll do.

 

[BassNBrew]

Bold predictions can make you consider a player differently. They don't have to be 100% accurate to be right -- in the sense that they guide you to draft the player a round or two earlier than consensus to make sure you get him (in auction leagues, he would typically go fairly cheaply unless there was another truther with dough left when his name is called).

So kudos to jon_mx whose stat projection was more accurate (in terms of upside -- actual TD totals are very tough to predict) than what you may have read on ESPN or somewhere...granted the process for most is probably to extrapolate from the previous seasons which is hard to do for a player that missed so much time...so it created a buying opportunity due to the unknown factor. And of course he could have been even better if not for the suspension.

I was super high on him going into this season and got him everywhere without reading touts from this thread but that's partly because a few of my leagues have TD distance bonuses (where he is huge).

This is a proven losing strategy over time. Guys who took him in the 9th rather than reaching and loaded up on Burrow, Kittle, JSN, Bowers, McConkey in the prior rounds came out way ahead.

 

[jon_mx]

WR23 in PPR on the season. A certified WR2 for 2024. And that with TWO games missed for suspension.

Delicious.

when hes been on the field this year, hes been mostly pretty good.

its been a nice breakout season for him. Took him a couple years to figure out how to beat the jam at the line and to improve his route running but it looks like hes put in the work to get there. hes light years ahead of where he was when he finally got on the field during his rookie season.

biggest worry for him moving forward is with his ability to stay on the field. Lets hope he doesnt do something stupid to keep him from playing.

Jamo was on the St Brown's podcast last week and was asked about the hardest hit he ever took, and he said it was a hit he took against Houston. He says it was the only time in his career in football he ever took a hard hit. Speed and allusiveness is what protects him.

 

[jon_mx]

Bold predictions can make you consider a player differently. They don't have to be 100% accurate to be right -- in the sense that they guide you to draft the player a round or two earlier than consensus to make sure you get him (in auction leagues, he would typically go fairly cheaply unless there was another truther with dough left when his name is called).

So kudos to jon_mx whose stat projection was more accurate (in terms of upside -- actual TD totals are very tough to predict) than what you may have read on ESPN or somewhere...granted the process for most is probably to extrapolate from the previous seasons which is hard to do for a player that missed so much time...so it created a buying opportunity due to the unknown factor. And of course he could have been even better if not for the suspension.

I was super high on him going into this season and got him everywhere without reading touts from this thread but that's partly because a few of my leagues have TD distance bonuses (where he is huge).

This is a proven losing strategy over time. Guys who took him in the 9th rather than reaching and loaded up on Burrow, Kittle, JSN, Bowers, McConkey in the prior rounds came out way ahead.

This is a fallacy. Getting Jamo in the 7th or 8th does not prevent you from taking Kittle/Burrow in the 6th or MoConkey in the 9th. You can use hindsight and cherry pick a few guys that turned out, but for everyone you find there are 3x that who did not workout so great like Prescott, Javante William or Jake Ferguson (who is much closer to where you would have reached up to get Jamo than Kittle).

 

[BobbyLayne]

How am I just now finding out Kyren Williams is his first cousin & they low key hang out all the time?

I’ve known about Skully Gang merch since he came out, but had no idea they’ve been business partners since 2018 & started that themselves. Wild.

 

[Dez]

I drafted him at 1.05 in my rookie draft 2 years ago and traded him away a week ago so expect the blow up to happen.

Nailed it.

Every time I give up on a player this is what happens same thing happened when I traded Jamaal Charles midseason in 2012 the very next week his blowup began.

Now I will say it still was worth it I traded Jameson as part of a package to move up in the draft to get Nabers.

I gave up Jameson, Sutton, Sean Tucker, Phil D, 2.13, my 2025 1st (turned in 1.13), my 2025 2nd (turned into 2.13)

I got 1.03 (Turned it into Nabers as Bowers went 1.02)

1.5 TE PPR 14 team 1 QB league

 

[BassNBrew]

Bold predictions can make you consider a player differently. They don't have to be 100% accurate to be right -- in the sense that they guide you to draft the player a round or two earlier than consensus to make sure you get him (in auction leagues, he would typically go fairly cheaply unless there was another truther with dough left when his name is called).

So kudos to jon_mx whose stat projection was more accurate (in terms of upside -- actual TD totals are very tough to predict) than what you may have read on ESPN or somewhere...granted the process for most is probably to extrapolate from the previous seasons which is hard to do for a player that missed so much time...so it created a buying opportunity due to the unknown factor. And of course he could have been even better if not for the suspension.

I was super high on him going into this season and got him everywhere without reading touts from this thread but that's partly because a few of my leagues have TD distance bonuses (where he is huge).

This is a proven losing strategy over time. Guys who took him in the 9th rather than reaching and loaded up on Burrow, Kittle, JSN, Bowers, McConkey in the prior rounds came out way ahead.

This is a fallacy. Getting Jamo in the 7th or 8th does not prevent you from taking Kittle/Burrow in the 6th or MoConkey in the 9th. You can use hindsight and cherry pick a few guys that turned out, but for everyone you find there are 3x that who did not workout so great like Prescott, Javante William or Jake Ferguson (who is much closer to where you would have reached up to get Jamo than Kittle).

It's not a fallacy. It's ben dissected in a FBG article that looked back 10 years. Reaching a round or two for Burrow/Kittle because you planned to reach for Jamo just cascades the problem.

 

[jon_mx]

Bold predictions can make you consider a player differently. They don't have to be 100% accurate to be right -- in the sense that they guide you to draft the player a round or two earlier than consensus to make sure you get him (in auction leagues, he would typically go fairly cheaply unless there was another truther with dough left when his name is called).

So kudos to jon_mx whose stat projection was more accurate (in terms of upside -- actual TD totals are very tough to predict) than what you may have read on ESPN or somewhere...granted the process for most is probably to extrapolate from the previous seasons which is hard to do for a player that missed so much time...so it created a buying opportunity due to the unknown factor. And of course he could have been even better if not for the suspension.

I was super high on him going into this season and got him everywhere without reading touts from this thread but that's partly because a few of my leagues have TD distance bonuses (where he is huge).

This is a proven losing strategy over time. Guys who took him in the 9th rather than reaching and loaded up on Burrow, Kittle, JSN, Bowers, McConkey in the prior rounds came out way ahead.

This is a fallacy. Getting Jamo in the 7th or 8th does not prevent you from taking Kittle/Burrow in the 6th or MoConkey in the 9th. You can use hindsight and cherry pick a few guys that turned out, but for everyone you find there are 3x that who did not workout so great like Prescott, Javante William or Jake Ferguson (who is much closer to where you would have reached up to get Jamo than Kittle).

It's not a fallacy. It's ben dissected in a FBG article that looked back 10 years. Reaching a round or two for Burrow/Kittle because you planned to reach for Jamo just cascades the problem.

That would only be true if the experts were right with their projection. If a player out performs his adp by several rounds but you jump up one round to get him, then you are clearly ahead. There is no cascading effect forward. It would only impact the rounds you jumped. Most people got Kittle and Burrow before the 7th and certainly before the 8th. You were far more likely to miss out on Jake Ferguson than Kittle.

 

[BassNBrew]

Bold predictions can make you consider a player differently. They don't have to be 100% accurate to be right -- in the sense that they guide you to draft the player a round or two earlier than consensus to make sure you get him (in auction leagues, he would typically go fairly cheaply unless there was another truther with dough left when his name is called).

So kudos to jon_mx whose stat projection was more accurate (in terms of upside -- actual TD totals are very tough to predict) than what you may have read on ESPN or somewhere...granted the process for most is probably to extrapolate from the previous seasons which is hard to do for a player that missed so much time...so it created a buying opportunity due to the unknown factor. And of course he could have been even better if not for the suspension.

I was super high on him going into this season and got him everywhere without reading touts from this thread but that's partly because a few of my leagues have TD distance bonuses (where he is huge).

This is a proven losing strategy over time. Guys who took him in the 9th rather than reaching and loaded up on Burrow, Kittle, JSN, Bowers, McConkey in the prior rounds came out way ahead.

This is a fallacy. Getting Jamo in the 7th or 8th does not prevent you from taking Kittle/Burrow in the 6th or MoConkey in the 9th. You can use hindsight and cherry pick a few guys that turned out, but for everyone you find there are 3x that who did not workout so great like Prescott, Javante William or Jake Ferguson (who is much closer to where you would have reached up to get Jamo than Kittle).

It's not a fallacy. It's ben dissected in a FBG article that looked back 10 years. Reaching a round or two for Burrow/Kittle because you planned to reach for Jamo just cascades the problem.

That would only be true if the experts were right with their projection. If a player out performs his adp by several rounds but you jump up one round to get him, then you are clearly ahead. There is no cascading effect forward. It would only impact the rounds you jumped. Most people got Kittle and Burrow before the 7th and certainly before the 8th. You were far more likely to miss out on Jake Ferguson than Kittle.

You would be correct with the later (Kittle), Bowers would have been a better example.

I took Burrow at the 7.12/8.1 turn. Even though I valued Jameson higher than 9.12/10.1, I felt there was a much better chance that I get Jameson at that spot. I needed both of them to finish in the top 10 of the FBG Bowl. If I had reached for Jameson at the 7/8 turn, I'm giving up two rounds of draft capital to every other Jameson owner that selected in the 9th/10th.

Same theory applied in the Interboard Challenge where team FBG acquired 3 of the 6 Jameson copies. By not reaching for players team FBG totally dominated the 5 other boards to the point that the overall team title was virtually locked up before the playoffs even starter.

 

[jon_mx]

Bold predictions can make you consider a player differently. They don't have to be 100% accurate to be right -- in the sense that they guide you to draft the player a round or two earlier than consensus to make sure you get him (in auction leagues, he would typically go fairly cheaply unless there was another truther with dough left when his name is called).

So kudos to jon_mx whose stat projection was more accurate (in terms of upside -- actual TD totals are very tough to predict) than what you may have read on ESPN or somewhere...granted the process for most is probably to extrapolate from the previous seasons which is hard to do for a player that missed so much time...so it created a buying opportunity due to the unknown factor. And of course he could have been even better if not for the suspension.

I was super high on him going into this season and got him everywhere without reading touts from this thread but that's partly because a few of my leagues have TD distance bonuses (where he is huge).

This is a proven losing strategy over time. Guys who took him in the 9th rather than reaching and loaded up on Burrow, Kittle, JSN, Bowers, McConkey in the prior rounds came out way ahead.

This is a fallacy. Getting Jamo in the 7th or 8th does not prevent you from taking Kittle/Burrow in the 6th or MoConkey in the 9th. You can use hindsight and cherry pick a few guys that turned out, but for everyone you find there are 3x that who did not workout so great like Prescott, Javante William or Jake Ferguson (who is much closer to where you would have reached up to get Jamo than Kittle).

It's not a fallacy. It's ben dissected in a FBG article that looked back 10 years. Reaching a round or two for Burrow/Kittle because you planned to reach for Jamo just cascades the problem.

That would only be true if the experts were right with their projection. If a player out performs his adp by several rounds but you jump up one round to get him, then you are clearly ahead. There is no cascading effect forward. It would only impact the rounds you jumped. Most people got Kittle and Burrow before the 7th and certainly before the 8th. You were far more likely to miss out on Jake Ferguson than Kittle.

You would be correct with the later (Kittle), Bowers would have been a better example.

I took Burrow at the 7.12/8.1 turn. Even though I valued Jameson higher than 9.12/10.1, I felt there was a much better chance that I get Jameson at that spot. I needed both of them to finish in the top 10 of the FBG Bowl. If I had reached for Jameson at the 7/8 turn, I'm giving up two rounds of draft capital to every other Jameson owner that selected in the 9th/10th.

Same theory applied in the Interboard Challenge where team FBG acquired 3 of the 6 Jameson copies. By not reaching for players team FBG totally dominated the 5 other boards to the point that the overall team title was virtually locked up before the playoffs even starter.

I have no idea how the FBG bowl was setup, but in a normal league you would not be competing against other Jameson owners. So i fail to see the point.

 

[BassNBrew]

Bold predictions can make you consider a player differently. They don't have to be 100% accurate to be right -- in the sense that they guide you to draft the player a round or two earlier than consensus to make sure you get him (in auction leagues, he would typically go fairly cheaply unless there was another truther with dough left when his name is called).

So kudos to jon_mx whose stat projection was more accurate (in terms of upside -- actual TD totals are very tough to predict) than what you may have read on ESPN or somewhere...granted the process for most is probably to extrapolate from the previous seasons which is hard to do for a player that missed so much time...so it created a buying opportunity due to the unknown factor. And of course he could have been even better if not for the suspension.

I was super high on him going into this season and got him everywhere without reading touts from this thread but that's partly because a few of my leagues have TD distance bonuses (where he is huge).

This is a proven losing strategy over time. Guys who took him in the 9th rather than reaching and loaded up on Burrow, Kittle, JSN, Bowers, McConkey in the prior rounds came out way ahead.

This is a fallacy. Getting Jamo in the 7th or 8th does not prevent you from taking Kittle/Burrow in the 6th or MoConkey in the 9th. You can use hindsight and cherry pick a few guys that turned out, but for everyone you find there are 3x that who did not workout so great like Prescott, Javante William or Jake Ferguson (who is much closer to where you would have reached up to get Jamo than Kittle).

It's not a fallacy. It's ben dissected in a FBG article that looked back 10 years. Reaching a round or two for Burrow/Kittle because you planned to reach for Jamo just cascades the problem.

That would only be true if the experts were right with their projection. If a player out performs his adp by several rounds but you jump up one round to get him, then you are clearly ahead. There is no cascading effect forward. It would only impact the rounds you jumped. Most people got Kittle and Burrow before the 7th and certainly before the 8th. You were far more likely to miss out on Jake Ferguson than Kittle.

You would be correct with the later (Kittle), Bowers would have been a better example.

I took Burrow at the 7.12/8.1 turn. Even though I valued Jameson higher than 9.12/10.1, I felt there was a much better chance that I get Jameson at that spot. I needed both of them to finish in the top 10 of the FBG Bowl. If I had reached for Jameson at the 7/8 turn, I'm giving up two rounds of draft capital to every other Jameson owner that selected in the 9th/10th.

Same theory applied in the Interboard Challenge where team FBG acquired 3 of the 6 Jameson copies. By not reaching for players team FBG totally dominated the 5 other boards to the point that the overall team title was virtually locked up before the playoffs even starter.

I have no idea how the FBG bowl was setup, but in a normal league you would not be competing against other Jameson owners. So i fail to see the point.

You're correct on "normal" leagues. My daughter in law won her normal league with auto draft with no advance set up.

 

[MAC_32]

Reaching for Jamo paid off this year. Is he a 4th or 5th rounder next summer?

I want to say yes but, when the Detroit defense is healthy and they have their full backfield I would be concerned about consistent volume.

High quality defenses are difficult to sustain and they're going to start to run into salary cap squeezes. They're in a position in which they can push in '25, but should they? If they want to keep this core intact without surrounding them with rookies and veteran minimums, then they're going to need to roll over a lot of those dollars. To widen the window as much as possible they'll need to consider things like letting Carlton Davis walk and cutting corners next to Kerby, who should get extended this offseason. I assume they're intending to prioritize RG and the DL in FA as only Hutch, McNeil, Reader, Z Smith, and Paschal are signed. They're looking at Jameson / Hutch / Branch extensions after '25, LaPorta / Gibbs / Campbell after '26, and as is they only have ~$20m in projected cap space before considering the roll over in '26.

When NFL teams are in a window they have a tendency to push, so it's certainly within the range of potential outcomes the Lions shove all their chips in '25, especially if they fall short this year. Maximize chances now then worry about the future later, but this team has an opportunity to create a half decade window. Will they?

 

[Ray_T]

WR23 in PPR on the season. A certified WR2 for 2024. And that with TWO games missed for suspension.

Delicious.

when hes been on the field this year, hes been mostly pretty good.

its been a nice breakout season for him. Took him a couple years to figure out how to beat the jam at the line and to improve his route running but it looks like hes put in the work to get there. hes light years ahead of where he was when he finally got on the field during his rookie season.

biggest worry for him moving forward is with his ability to stay on the field. Lets hope he doesnt do something stupid to keep him from playing.

Jamo was on the St Brown's podcast last week and was asked about the hardest hit he ever took, and he said it was a hit he took against Houston. He says it was the only time in his career in football he ever took a hard hit. Speed and allusiveness is what protects him.

honestly with a WR it is also about having a QB who does not put the ball into a position where the WR is in a vulnerable position.

There are QB in this league who will throw what I like to call a suicide pass. Where the WR is going one direction and the defender the other and they are on a collision course just after the point of the catch. Those are the plays that a WR cannot protect himself from a big hit. and those are the plays where the WR often gets hurt (big or small)

but the smaller guys are more likely to get hurt in those collisions.

I'd give part of this credit to Goff who has done a good job of not putting his WR into that situation very often.

 

[jon_mx]

Bold predictions can make you consider a player differently. They don't have to be 100% accurate to be right -- in the sense that they guide you to draft the player a round or two earlier than consensus to make sure you get him (in auction leagues, he would typically go fairly cheaply unless there was another truther with dough left when his name is called).

So kudos to jon_mx whose stat projection was more accurate (in terms of upside -- actual TD totals are very tough to predict) than what you may have read on ESPN or somewhere...granted the process for most is probably to extrapolate from the previous seasons which is hard to do for a player that missed so much time...so it created a buying opportunity due to the unknown factor. And of course he could have been even better if not for the suspension.

I was super high on him going into this season and got him everywhere without reading touts from this thread but that's partly because a few of my leagues have TD distance bonuses (where he is huge).

This is a proven losing strategy over time. Guys who took him in the 9th rather than reaching and loaded up on Burrow, Kittle, JSN, Bowers, McConkey in the prior rounds came out way ahead.

This is a fallacy. Getting Jamo in the 7th or 8th does not prevent you from taking Kittle/Burrow in the 6th or MoConkey in the 9th. You can use hindsight and cherry pick a few guys that turned out, but for everyone you find there are 3x that who did not workout so great like Prescott, Javante William or Jake Ferguson (who is much closer to where you would have reached up to get Jamo than Kittle).

It's not a fallacy. It's ben dissected in a FBG article that looked back 10 years. Reaching a round or two for Burrow/Kittle because you planned to reach for Jamo just cascades the problem.

That would only be true if the experts were right with their projection. If a player out performs his adp by several rounds but you jump up one round to get him, then you are clearly ahead. There is no cascading effect forward. It would only impact the rounds you jumped. Most people got Kittle and Burrow before the 7th and certainly before the 8th. You were far more likely to miss out on Jake Ferguson than Kittle.

You would be correct with the later (Kittle), Bowers would have been a better example.

I took Burrow at the 7.12/8.1 turn. Even though I valued Jameson higher than 9.12/10.1, I felt there was a much better chance that I get Jameson at that spot. I needed both of them to finish in the top 10 of the FBG Bowl. If I had reached for Jameson at the 7/8 turn, I'm giving up two rounds of draft capital to every other Jameson owner that selected in the 9th/10th.

Same theory applied in the Interboard Challenge where team FBG acquired 3 of the 6 Jameson copies. By not reaching for players team FBG totally dominated the 5 other boards to the point that the overall team title was virtually locked up before the playoffs even starter.

I have no idea how the FBG bowl was setup, but in a normal league you would not be competing against other Jameson owners. So i fail to see the point.

You're correct on "normal" leagues. My daughter in law won her normal league with auto draft with no advance set up.

That is obviously not what I meant by normal. I meant normal draft format where each player is only on one team. If you draft Jamo round 7/8 you eliminate the possibility of competing against someone who drafted Jamo in the 9th. So in the vast majority of cases your point is not legit.

 

[TartanLion]

WR23 in PPR on the season. A certified WR2 for 2024. And that with TWO games missed for suspension.

Delicious.

when hes been on the field this year, hes been mostly pretty good.

its been a nice breakout season for him. Took him a couple years to figure out how to beat the jam at the line and to improve his route running but it looks like hes put in the work to get there. hes light years ahead of where he was when he finally got on the field during his rookie season.

biggest worry for him moving forward is with his ability to stay on the field. Lets hope he doesnt do something stupid to keep him from playing.

Jamo was on the St Brown's podcast last week and was asked about the hardest hit he ever took, and he said it was a hit he took against Houston. He says it was the only time in his career in football he ever took a hard hit. Speed and allusiveness is what protects him.

honestly with a WR it is also about having a QB who does not put the ball into a position where the WR is in a vulnerable position.

There are QB in this league who will throw what I like to call a suicide pass. Where the WR is going one direction and the defender the other and they are on a collision course just after the point of the catch. Those are the plays that a WR cannot protect himself from a big hit. and those are the plays where the WR often gets hurt (big or small)

but the smaller guys are more likely to get hurt in those collisions.

I'd give part of this credit to Goff who has done a good job of not putting his WR into that situation very often.

Was going to say this exact thing. Goff does a very good job of protecting his guys and adjusting throws to help avoid hits.

Derek Carr is an example of a very average QB who simply does not possess the ability to do this. Simply just getting it to one of his own players is the only thought never mind adjusting where he’s throwing it to them to protect them. Chris Olave has found this out to his detriment.

 

[Ilov80s]

WR23 in PPR on the season. A certified WR2 for 2024. And that with TWO games missed for suspension.

Delicious.

when hes been on the field this year, hes been mostly pretty good.

its been a nice breakout season for him. Took him a couple years to figure out how to beat the jam at the line and to improve his route running but it looks like hes put in the work to get there. hes light years ahead of where he was when he finally got on the field during his rookie season.

biggest worry for him moving forward is with his ability to stay on the field. Lets hope he doesnt do something stupid to keep him from playing.

Jamo was on the St Brown's podcast last week and was asked about the hardest hit he ever took, and he said it was a hit he took against Houston. He says it was the only time in his career in football he ever took a hard hit. Speed and allusiveness is what protects him.

honestly with a WR it is also about having a QB who does not put the ball into a position where the WR is in a vulnerable position.

There are QB in this league who will throw what I like to call a suicide pass. Where the WR is going one direction and the defender the other and they are on a collision course just after the point of the catch. Those are the plays that a WR cannot protect himself from a big hit. and those are the plays where the WR often gets hurt (big or small)

but the smaller guys are more likely to get hurt in those collisions.

I'd give part of this credit to Goff who has done a good job of not putting his WR into that situation very often.

Was going to say this exact thing. Goff does a very good job of protecting his guys and adjusting throws to help avoid hits.

Derek Carr is an example of a very average QB who simply does not possess the ability to do this. Simply just getting it to one of his own players is the only thought never mind adjusting where he’s throwing it to them to protect them. Chris Olave has found this out to his detriment.

Goff really showing why he was the 1.01 in the NFL draft that year. The only thing he can’t do is extend plays with his legs but in terms of running an offense, making reads, delivering every throw on the field with precision and accuracy, there aren’t many better.

 

[Ray_T]

WR23 in PPR on the season. A certified WR2 for 2024. And that with TWO games missed for suspension.

Delicious.

when hes been on the field this year, hes been mostly pretty good.

its been a nice breakout season for him. Took him a couple years to figure out how to beat the jam at the line and to improve his route running but it looks like hes put in the work to get there. hes light years ahead of where he was when he finally got on the field during his rookie season.

biggest worry for him moving forward is with his ability to stay on the field. Lets hope he doesnt do something stupid to keep him from playing.

Jamo was on the St Brown's podcast last week and was asked about the hardest hit he ever took, and he said it was a hit he took against Houston. He says it was the only time in his career in football he ever took a hard hit. Speed and allusiveness is what protects him.

honestly with a WR it is also about having a QB who does not put the ball into a position where the WR is in a vulnerable position.

There are QB in this league who will throw what I like to call a suicide pass. Where the WR is going one direction and the defender the other and they are on a collision course just after the point of the catch. Those are the plays that a WR cannot protect himself from a big hit. and those are the plays where the WR often gets hurt (big or small)

but the smaller guys are more likely to get hurt in those collisions.

I'd give part of this credit to Goff who has done a good job of not putting his WR into that situation very often.

Was going to say this exact thing. Goff does a very good job of protecting his guys and adjusting throws to help avoid hits.

Derek Carr is an example of a very average QB who simply does not possess the ability to do this. Simply just getting it to one of his own players is the only thought never mind adjusting where he’s throwing it to them to protect them. Chris Olave has found this out to his detriment.

Goff really showing why he was the 1.01 in the NFL draft that year. The only thing he can’t do is extend plays with his legs but in terms of running an offense, making reads, delivering every throw on the field with precision and accuracy, there aren’t many better.

I agree. dude has been incredibly efficient.

I'd almost call him a game manager, but hes more than that. Hes a game manager who has the ability to be a gunslinger and will occasionally do so if the situation calls for it.