WR Jameson Williams, DET (7 Viewers)

[Deamon]

I see a path to him possibly being WR50 (ARSB/Laporta usage through the roof, Lions leading games huge and running all 2nd half, him improving a lot but not a mind blowing amount, etc)

MORE THAN I can see a path to him becoming a top 10 WR. (But my guess is WR30, which is closer to WR20 than WR50)

 

[jon_mx]

You have not accurately captured what I have been saying. If you want to bet my projections are more absurd than WR50 (which you have now said twice), I will take that. But seeing I really don't disagree with your projection, I have no reason to bet against that.

Saying WR7 is more absurd than WR50 does not mean that I think he finishes closer to WR50 than to WR7. That's not how it works. I think his upside is capped at WR15, I think WR7 is almost impossible, where I think WR50 is slightly less impossible. So yes, your projections are more absurd, but also yes, I think he finishes closer to WR20 than WR50

Again, the numbers you continually quoted were not my projection....they were a calculation to show my projections were very obtainable. I projected something like 70-1040. I then showed he could easily get there if he got 6 targets a game, making 4.5 receptions at 15 ypc, resulting in 76-1140. Understand?

 

[Deamon]

You have not accurately captured what I have been saying. If you want to bet my projections are more absurd than WR50 (which you have now said twice), I will take that. But seeing I really don't disagree with your projection, I have no reason to bet against that.

Saying WR7 is more absurd than WR50 does not mean that I think he finishes closer to WR50 than to WR7. That's not how it works. I think his upside is capped at WR15, I think WR7 is almost impossible, where I think WR50 is slightly less impossible. So yes, your projections are more absurd, but also yes, I think he finishes closer to WR20 than WR50

Again, the numbers you continually quoted were not my projection....they were a calculation to show my projections were very obtainable. I projected something like 70-1040. I then showed he could easily get there if he got 6 targets a game, making 4.5 receptions at 15 ypc, resulting in 76-1140. Understand?

I give up man, you've gone way off the deep end now lol

 

[Soulfly3]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

 

[Deamon]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

 

[Soulfly3]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

he's an injury away to arsb or laporta from having that be a path for him... but without it, no, it's as long a shot as there is.
but again, I have him in WR2 upside territory for now, regardless of the rest

 

[Deamon]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

he's an injury away to arsb or laporta from having that be a path for him... but without it, no, it's as long a shot as there is.
but again, I have him in WR2 upside territory for now, regardless of the rest

he's also an injury away to himself, from being WR200 this year.

Injuries work both ways.

 

[Soulfly3]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

he's an injury away to arsb or laporta from having that be a path for him... but without it, no, it's as long a shot as there is.
but again, I have him in WR2 upside territory for now, regardless of the rest

he's also an injury away to himself, from being WR200 this year.

Injuries work both ways.

well, ya. obviously. but I'm speaking baout how he can potentially reach those numbers. it would require an injury to the big 2. otherwise, about a 1% chance, and that could even be generous

 

[Deamon]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

he's an injury away to arsb or laporta from having that be a path for him... but without it, no, it's as long a shot as there is.
but again, I have him in WR2 upside territory for now, regardless of the rest

he's also an injury away to himself, from being WR200 this year.

Injuries work both ways.

well, ya. obviously. but I'm speaking baout how he can potentially reach those numbers. it would require an injury to the big 2. otherwise, about a 1% chance, and that could even be generous

Agreed. And I'll give it a 2% chance that he's as low as WR50. So I see him as WR30, but top 10 is far more absurd than WR50.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Can we stop the measuring contest in here and get back to talking about Jameson Williams?

 

[King of the Jungle]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

he's an injury away to arsb or laporta from having that be a path for him... but without it, no, it's as long a shot as there is.
but again, I have him in WR2 upside territory for now, regardless of the rest

he's also an injury away to himself, from being WR200 this year.

Injuries work both ways.

well, ya. obviously. but I'm speaking baout how he can potentially reach those numbers. it would require an injury to the big 2. otherwise, about a 1% chance, and that could even be generous

Agreed. And I'll give it a 2% chance that he's as low as WR50. So I see him as WR30, but top 10 is far more absurd than WR50.

II agree with this. He will make more splash plays this year but he has two target hogs in front of him. I can see him putting up decent stats by years end but one of those guys that leaves you guessing which week to start him. I doubt he ends up on many of my rosters this year, being from MI I would guess someone will take him higher than I like.

 

[ffmail4me]

He's like the perfect best ball WR though. Think Santana Moss, Coles, Lee Evans in their prime...you'd get some weeks with not great production and several HUGE monster games.

 

[Ilov80s]

He's like the perfect best ball WR though. Think Santana Moss, Coles, Lee Evans in their prime...you'd get some weeks with not great production and several HUGE monster games.

I was just looking because I was curious but I totally forgot Santana Moss had a 1400/9 season.

 

[barackdhouse]

Not sure what the speculation is here. People act like it's not possible for a team to have two 1,000 yard WR. God forbid Laporta or Brown miss a game or two. Because football players never get hurt, right?

The guy played at Alabama was the #12 overall pick and is a year 3 WR breakout candidate who is getting rave reviews in camp. Don't overthink it, you could do a lot worse with your 9th round pick...

exactly

 

[barackdhouse]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

well go back a couple pages and there are plenty of folks that don't think WR2 is realistic. Plenty of haters in this thread.

 

[BassNBrew]

Jameson Williams NFL Draft 2022: Scouting Report for Alabama WR

 

[BassNBrew]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

well go back a couple pages and there are plenty of folks that don't think WR2 is realistic. Plenty of haters in this thread.

Most of what I'm reading over the last two pages is saying a top 10 finish isn't realistic.

Just cuious, who in the top 24 are you bumping for him? Nico or Diggs? Flowers, DJ, Godwin (mayber), Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

It's so hard to slot in the WR2 on a balanced run/pass team into the top 24.

 

[Deamon]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

well go back a couple pages and there are plenty of folks that don't think WR2 is realistic. Plenty of haters in this thread.

Just did and can't see it. Could you show me the "plenty of haters" in this thread? Haven't found people that don't think he's a great value this year. (remember, his ADP is WR50)

 

[Deamon]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

well go back a couple pages and there are plenty of folks that don't think WR2 is realistic. Plenty of haters in this thread.

Most of what I'm reading over the last two pages is saying a top 10 finish isn't realistic.

Just cuious, who in the top 24 are you bumping for him? Nico or Diggs? Flowers, DJ, Godwin (mayber), Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

It's so hard to slot in the WR2 on a balanced run/pass team into the top 24.

Exactly, I'm really not seeing any 'haters' on here. Will wait to see what @barackdhouse finds and gets back to us on.

Saying he will outperform his ADP is being the opposite of a 'hater' lol

 

[BassNBrew]

I'm open to the possibility that ASB isn't a top 12 WR and La Porta isn't a top 6 TE and slotting in Jameson much higher.

 

[barackdhouse]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

well go back a couple pages and there are plenty of folks that don't think WR2 is realistic. Plenty of haters in this thread.

Just did and can't see it. Could you show me the "plenty of haters" in this thread? Haven't found people that don't think he's a great value this year. (remember, his ADP is WR50)

oh God I guess go back further but I've been defending him like crazy in here.

 

[barackdhouse]

I'm open to the possibility that ASB isn't a top 12 WR and La Porta isn't a top 6 TE and slotting in Jameson much higher.

this is what I've been screaming from the hilltops and nobody has even tried to counter me on it. LaPorta doesn't have to see much of a small dip to still be a top 6 or 8 TE but thats enough to open the door for Jamo.

 

[BassNBrew]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

well go back a couple pages and there are plenty of folks that don't think WR2 is realistic. Plenty of haters in this thread.

Most of what I'm reading over the last two pages is saying a top 10 finish isn't realistic.

Just cuious, who in the top 24 are you bumping for him? Nico or Diggs? Flowers, DJ, Godwin (mayber), Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

It's so hard to slot in the WR2 on a balanced run/pass team into the top 24.

Exactly, I'm really not seeing any 'haters' on here. Will wait to see what @barackdhouse finds and gets back to us on.

Saying he will outperform his ADP is being the opposite of a 'hater' lol

I fall into the hater category and drafted him at 8.7 (as I recall. First Lion I targeted, later acquired Gibbs and LaPorta. I hate him so much that I traded away a 6th rounder for a 10th to move up for Kupp. It's fluid and early, but right now it will be a weekly decision between him a Swift to see who starts.

 

[BassNBrew]

I'm open to the possibility that ASB isn't a top 12 WR and La Porta isn't a top 6 TE and slotting in Jameson much higher.

this is what I've been screaming from the hilltops and nobody has even tried to counter me on it. LaPorta doesn't have to see much of a small dip to still be a top 6 or 8 TE but thats enough to open the door for Jamo.

Given the physical sills drawing coverage to ASB and Jameson, it's very possible that LaPorta becomes an easier target and the production comes from ASB.

 

[barackdhouse]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

well go back a couple pages and there are plenty of folks that don't think WR2 is realistic. Plenty of haters in this thread.

Most of what I'm reading over the last two pages is saying a top 10 finish isn't realistic.

Just cuious, who in the top 24 are you bumping for him? Nico or Diggs? Flowers, DJ, Godwin (mayber), Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

It's so hard to slot in the WR2 on a balanced run/pass team into the top 24.

I actually haven't seen anyone say a top10 finish is realistic except myself. And I'm simply saying there is a path to it, I don't think it's probable but plausible.

As for the names to bump (and I'm talking about 2023 redraft ranks here - dynasty is a different animal) - I need to be clear I'm talking about where I think they'll finish not who I think represents a value or not relative to their current ADP:

Nico or Diggs Flowers, DJ, Godwin, Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

I would consider Jamo to finish on par with the bolded, but price is widely different. In dynasty I'd prefer Nico/Flowers/Nabers by a lot and mmmmaybe Pittman.

 

[Deamon]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

well go back a couple pages and there are plenty of folks that don't think WR2 is realistic. Plenty of haters in this thread.

Just did and can't see it. Could you show me the "plenty of haters" in this thread? Haven't found people that don't think he's a great value this year. (remember, his ADP is WR50)

oh God I guess go back further but I've been defending him like crazy in here.

Went back further and still not seeing anything. I've been the biggest voice on here of "Jamo will NOT be a top 10 WR" and I'm still targeting him everywhere I possibly can as I think he will be a huge steal this year at his ADP. That's not remotely being a hater, and I really can't find a SINGLE person on these threads who has even ONCE said that he won't be a good value this year.

 

[barackdhouse]

I'm open to the possibility that ASB isn't a top 12 WR and La Porta isn't a top 6 TE and slotting in Jameson much higher.

this is what I've been screaming from the hilltops and nobody has even tried to counter me on it. LaPorta doesn't have to see much of a small dip to still be a top 6 or 8 TE but thats enough to open the door for Jamo.

Given the physical sills drawing coverage to ASB and Jameson, it's very possible that LaPorta becomes an easier target and the production comes from ASB.

sure. I think the defensive challenges teams are going to face make all of them super productive from week to week. I've mostly been operating under the assumption that Amon-Ra is the only one whose touches won't go down. The rest are all going to be pliable but LaPorta is going to eat. I just don't think he returns the value of where he is being drafted, and particularly with the strong drumbeats for Jamo.

 

[Boston]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

well go back a couple pages and there are plenty of folks that don't think WR2 is realistic. Plenty of haters in this thread.

Most of what I'm reading over the last two pages is saying a top 10 finish isn't realistic.

Just cuious, who in the top 24 are you bumping for him? Nico or Diggs? Flowers, DJ, Godwin (mayber), Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

It's so hard to slot in the WR2 on a balanced run/pass team into the top 24.

I actually haven't seen anyone say a top10 finish is realistic except myself. And I'm simply saying there is a path to it, I don't think it's probable but plausible.

As for the names to bump (and I'm talking about 2023 redraft ranks here - dynasty is a different animal) - I need to be clear I'm talking about where I think they'll finish not who I think represents a value or not relative to their current ADP:

Nico or Diggs Flowers, DJ, Godwin, Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

I would consider Jamo to finish on par with the bolded, but price is widely different. In dynasty I'd prefer Nico/Flowers/Nabers by a lot and mmmmaybe Pittman.

For Williams to take this leap/path I would think he would have to leapfrog one of ARSB, LaPorta and Gibbs/Monty in the Lions offensive pecking order to accomplish that or Goff would be competing for the #1 QB in all of fantasy...how do you see that going down?

 

[Deamon]

I would love to see one of the FBG staffers in this thread discussing why they have him ranked at WR54. Would be interesting to hear their reasons for it as they are the ones many of us look to for rankings.

@Joe Bryant , any of your ranking squad on these boards?

 

[BassNBrew]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

well go back a couple pages and there are plenty of folks that don't think WR2 is realistic. Plenty of haters in this thread.

Most of what I'm reading over the last two pages is saying a top 10 finish isn't realistic.

Just cuious, who in the top 24 are you bumping for him? Nico or Diggs? Flowers, DJ, Godwin (mayber), Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

It's so hard to slot in the WR2 on a balanced run/pass team into the top 24.

I actually haven't seen anyone say a top10 finish is realistic except myself. And I'm simply saying there is a path to it, I don't think it's probable but plausible.

As for the names to bump (and I'm talking about 2023 redraft ranks here - dynasty is a different animal) - I need to be clear I'm talking about where I think they'll finish not who I think represents a value or not relative to their current ADP:

Nico or Diggs Flowers, DJ, Godwin, Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

I would consider Jamo to finish on par with the bolded, but price is widely different. In dynasty I'd prefer Nico/Flowers/Nabers by a lot and mmmmaybe Pittman.

We are kind of splinting hairs. last year the difference between WR23 and WR33 was 12 points. Basically a dropped 50 yard bomb to the endzone plummets you from a WR2 to a low end WR3.

 

[barackdhouse]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

well go back a couple pages and there are plenty of folks that don't think WR2 is realistic. Plenty of haters in this thread.

Most of what I'm reading over the last two pages is saying a top 10 finish isn't realistic.

Just cuious, who in the top 24 are you bumping for him? Nico or Diggs? Flowers, DJ, Godwin (mayber), Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

It's so hard to slot in the WR2 on a balanced run/pass team into the top 24.

I actually haven't seen anyone say a top10 finish is realistic except myself. And I'm simply saying there is a path to it, I don't think it's probable but plausible.

As for the names to bump (and I'm talking about 2023 redraft ranks here - dynasty is a different animal) - I need to be clear I'm talking about where I think they'll finish not who I think represents a value or not relative to their current ADP:

Nico or Diggs Flowers, DJ, Godwin, Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

I would consider Jamo to finish on par with the bolded, but price is widely different. In dynasty I'd prefer Nico/Flowers/Nabers by a lot and mmmmaybe Pittman.

For Williams to take this leap/path I would think he would have to leapfrog one of ARSB, LaPorta and Gibbs/Monty in the Lions offensive pecking order to accomplish that or Goff would be competing for the #1 QB in all of fantasy...how do you see that going down?

I agree. I made some projections a couple pages back that explain how I see this *potentially* going. The TLDR version is that I see Jamo and LaPorta each getting around 20% target share while Amon-Ra continues at around 27%. I'll repost here in a second -there is a lot of noise in the thread lol

 

[Boston]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

well go back a couple pages and there are plenty of folks that don't think WR2 is realistic. Plenty of haters in this thread.

Most of what I'm reading over the last two pages is saying a top 10 finish isn't realistic.

Just cuious, who in the top 24 are you bumping for him? Nico or Diggs? Flowers, DJ, Godwin (mayber), Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

It's so hard to slot in the WR2 on a balanced run/pass team into the top 24.

I actually haven't seen anyone say a top10 finish is realistic except myself. And I'm simply saying there is a path to it, I don't think it's probable but plausible.

As for the names to bump (and I'm talking about 2023 redraft ranks here - dynasty is a different animal) - I need to be clear I'm talking about where I think they'll finish not who I think represents a value or not relative to their current ADP:

Nico or Diggs Flowers, DJ, Godwin, Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

I would consider Jamo to finish on par with the bolded, but price is widely different. In dynasty I'd prefer Nico/Flowers/Nabers by a lot and mmmmaybe Pittman.

For Williams to take this leap/path I would think he would have to leapfrog one of ARSB, LaPorta and Gibbs/Monty in the Lions offensive pecking order to accomplish that or Goff would be competing for the #1 QB in all of fantasy...how do you see that going down?

I agree. I made some projections a couple pages back that explain how I see this *potentially* going. The TLDR version is that I see Jamo and LaPorta each getting around 20% target share while Amon-Ra continues at around 27%. I'll repost here in a second -there is a lot of noise in the thread lol

OK...thanks!

 

[BassNBrew]

I would love to see one of the FBG staffers in this thread discussing why they have him ranked at WR54. Would be interesting to hear their reasons for it as they are the ones many of us look to for rankings.

@Joe Bryant , any of your ranking squad on these boards?

Henry who's projections I find the best has him at 42. Freeman's projection is tanking him.

2024	Consensus	16.1	5.9	51	0.4		49.6	731	4.8	0.1
2024	Freeman	16.0	4.8	44	0.3		41.5	598	4.3	0.1
2024	Henry	16.0	8.0	85	1.0		52.0	800	6.0	0.0
2024	Tremblay	17.0	6.0	35	0.0		55.8	745	4.1	0.6
2024	Wood	16.0	4.0	25	0.0		46.0	680	4.0	0.0

WEEKLY PERFORMANCE VS WR 1, WR 12, WR 24 , WR 36​

 

[barackdhouse]

He has every bit of ability and situation to end the season as a WR2.

Can we just all leave it at that?

Again, not a single person is disputing that. Top 24 WR isn't far off of what I'm expecting.

Jon mx's projections for him are insanity though. That's all I'm saying. 70 catches, 1400 all purpose yards and 10+ Tds.

I have the guy already drafted EVERYWHERE, so I'm on team Jamo this year all the way. But he's simply not going to sniff being a top 10 WR this year.

well go back a couple pages and there are plenty of folks that don't think WR2 is realistic. Plenty of haters in this thread.

Most of what I'm reading over the last two pages is saying a top 10 finish isn't realistic.

Just cuious, who in the top 24 are you bumping for him? Nico or Diggs? Flowers, DJ, Godwin (mayber), Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

It's so hard to slot in the WR2 on a balanced run/pass team into the top 24.

I actually haven't seen anyone say a top10 finish is realistic except myself. And I'm simply saying there is a path to it, I don't think it's probable but plausible.

As for the names to bump (and I'm talking about 2023 redraft ranks here - dynasty is a different animal) - I need to be clear I'm talking about where I think they'll finish not who I think represents a value or not relative to their current ADP:

Nico or Diggs Flowers, DJ, Godwin, Nabers, DeVonta, Deebo, Pittman?

I would consider Jamo to finish on par with the bolded, but price is widely different. In dynasty I'd prefer Nico/Flowers/Nabers by a lot and mmmmaybe Pittman.

We are kind of splinting hairs. last year the difference between WR23 and WR33 was 12 points. Basically a dropped 50 yard bomb to the endzone plummets you from a WR2 to a low end WR3.

indeed, which is also a part of my argument for why he is such a good value. WR3 types that have huge ceilings but the risk of a floor is (IMO) minimal in the following way:

the actual odds of only hitting the floor - pretty reasonable (outside of injury which obv kills the whole thing)
the magnitude of the of the impact from the risk being realized - not much because I'm not forced to start him and have lots of other options - we may be splitting hairs but isn't that what we do when we are making marginal calls between players?

it's like the risk of getting hit on your windshield by a small pebble - somewhat high but is it gonna kill you or stop where you're going? not likely

low risk high reward and that is all outside the realm of conversation of what happens if he actually explodes? when I say high reward I largely mean WR2 because that is plenty lofty but WR1 isn't absurd. I do think forecasting Jamo to get a similar target share as last year or his rookie year is pretty absurd however. And if he does get an increase, and even if we were to somehow all come to some consensus on what that level might be:

NOBODY in the market seems to care what that could mean for LaPorta (or Amon-Ra). Because so far ADP for all three (and Gibbs until recently) has remained constant all offseason. The market isn't buying the idea of a step forward by Jamo.

 

[barackdhouse]

DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share

Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 3)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)

TARGETS

• ARSB 172 | 27.3%
• LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
• Jamo 102 | 16.2%
• Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
• All RBs 120 | 19.0%
• Fake P 2

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.

That’s an NFL record for total yardage.

TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)

Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.

The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.

Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.

His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%

Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)

Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.

72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0

Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

LEAGUE WINNER

Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.

Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)

90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0

That’s not helping anyone.

edit typo

Good stuff. A couple comments that I think need brought up that could swing this a little, and I do mean a little, in the direction of my own personal bias because I think there is room for Jamo to do more than that floor and to have a slightly easier path to the ceiling you described.

Let's assume for a second that the Lions as a whole do just a bit less than a historic season, since that is setting this thing up to fail (IMHO respectfully your projection of a floor is much more unlikely than your projection of a ceiling and the entire construct has your bias in it - while I'm acknowledging this is good work and a great place to start). Let's be just a skosh more realistic with the ceiling and say it's lower. Even though I think it is *very* plausible I'd agree it isn't very probable. The floor is absurd to me though. He will be getting more than 5 rushes and that projection is not defendable. 90 targets is probably more than fair though but there is much more evidence to suggest his catch rate will in fact go up and that he will in fact take developmental steps this year than there is evidence to the contrary. So I'd have to call that 65 catches and ~930 yds (top of my head) maybe 1 more TD. But easily 30 more carries.

As for TDs. We know they're fluky. It could be double digits though even at a lower projected usage and he still hits the mark. And at the ceiling mark that you projected you only gave him 7 TDs plus 1 rushing. I mean that's probably a really good guess but the range of outcomes needs to be higher if its a historic type season. But even in my range where I'm saying the Lions have something a little less than that, there is a major factor in your projections that do not speak whatsoever to what Jameson might do if addressed:

What if he really eats into LaPorta's pie? Or gets his target share *somehow* up to 20% or more? In your projections you have LaPorta going from 120 targets last year to 133 this year. Now, again, that could very well end up true, but if we're testing the ranges of outcomes we *have* to look at these other player position breakdowns. And again I'd reiterate you did solid work, but there is room to see plausible pathways to fantasy success. So, let's look at same idea just slightly tweaked:

600 targets overall instead of 630, and with me bumping down LaPorta a little and taking just a small small bit from the RBs:

• ARSB 163| 27.3%
• LaPorta 110 | 18.0%
• Jamo 118 | 19.7%
• Other WRs 71 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 26 | 4.3%
• All RBs 112 | 18.7%

Why is the narrative of LaPorta getting an increased share not being debated here? I think it is not super likely myself. Especially with all the steady drumbeats re:Jamo

Ok so 118 targets with a 65% catch rate (less than the 69% you used above) gives 77 / 1155 / 10 because I think double digit TDs should be the mark if we're talking ceiling in a hot offense. Add 25/175/1 rushing and we have 270 PPR points. At the ceiling usage level if we say he only gets 6 overall TDs then that is still 240 PPR points. Like you said - league winner, but with less than a historic offense requirement (because that parameter isn't necessary)

My floor is going to be like this and lets say they have 570 targets to go around now:

• ARSB 156| 27.3%
• LaPorta 114 | 20.0%
• Jamo 100 | 17.5%
• Other WRs 68 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 25 | 4.3%
• All RBs 107 | 18.7%

65 / 975 / 5 & 20 / 140 / 1

212.5 PPR points ~WR2/3 type and still worth drafting. Particularly at current cost.

@Boston FWIW

 

[Ray_T]

$1000 says Jamo is closer to WR20 than WR50.

I'll bet you $1000 that my projections for him are closer than your projections are for him.

I don't think WR30 is an absurd projection, i see that as about his floor. I have no beef with that projection. What I do have a beef with is making my projection to be more absurd than WR50. Do you want to put money on that?

I'm not taking a side here, but just so you know the difference between a low end WR3 and a WR 4 is not exceptionally large. there are an awful lot of WR that could fit into that category.

I actually see him as guy with a low (relatively) floor high ceiling guy. but due to past performance and injuries you draft him closer to his floor than to his ceiling. I agree he should take a decent step forward this year. I'm not sure I would go out and predict well in excess of 1000 yards with any confidence but 900 is well within the range with an expected variation of up to 100 yards (give or take)

is it possible he gets 1200 yards? yes. but everything would need to come up aces for this to happen. its also possible that he gets hurt blocking on a run play and gets 200 yards on the year. do I think it will happen? No. but its possible.

I know this is a very extreme example but the point is. we have a reasonably wide range of perceived value for this guy. if you think his value is higher than his average draft position, hes a guy you should target in your draft. its that simple.

so Jon will likely draft him and Deamon may not. but if they are both in the same draft, I'm pretty sure Jon doesnt want Deamon to draft HIS guy so maybe it all works out if that is the case

 

[Joe Bryant]

I see a path to him possibly being WR50 (ARSB/Laporta usage through the roof, Lions leading games huge and running all 2nd half, him improving a lot but not a mind blowing amount, etc)

That's mostly how we're seeing it today. It's a crowded group for receiving options.

If you click on the player name in our ranking, we display the comments from rankers. A couple right now for him:

Jason Wood on Aug 15​

Depth chart cleared up, Williams opportunity to make an impact is now

Matt Waldman on Jul 24​

Beat writers are reporting that Williams has improved his route game. If Williams demonstrates enough improvement, he could easily become the third-most productive option in the passing game.
If Williams' gains aren't as significant as reported, he'll be a more refined vertical option with some gadgetry to his game in the short range. This will put him on par with Jahmyr Gibbs in terms of passing-game production and possibly fourth in the overall pecking order.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I'll also say though Williams is one of the tougher players to predict simply because he's so physically gifted. His upside is way up there.

 

[Deamon]

I see a path to him possibly being WR50 (ARSB/Laporta usage through the roof, Lions leading games huge and running all 2nd half, him improving a lot but not a mind blowing amount, etc)

That's mostly how we're seeing it today. It's a crowded group for receiving options.

If you click on the player name in our ranking, we display the comments from rankers. A couple right now for him:

Jason Wood on Aug 15​

Depth chart cleared up, Williams opportunity to make an impact is now

Matt Waldman on Jul 24​

Beat writers are reporting that Williams has improved his route game. If Williams demonstrates enough improvement, he could easily become the third-most productive option in the passing game.
If Williams' gains aren't as significant as reported, he'll be a more refined vertical option with some gadgetry to his game in the short range. This will put him on par with Jahmyr Gibbs in terms of passing-game production and possibly fourth in the overall pecking order.

Jason Wood just ranked Jamo at WR65 yesterday.

*Cue @jon_mx self destructing*

 

[Joe Bryant]

I see a path to him possibly being WR50 (ARSB/Laporta usage through the roof, Lions leading games huge and running all 2nd half, him improving a lot but not a mind blowing amount, etc)

That's mostly how we're seeing it today. It's a crowded group for receiving options.

If you click on the player name in our ranking, we display the comments from rankers. A couple right now for him:

Jason Wood on Aug 15​

Depth chart cleared up, Williams opportunity to make an impact is now

Matt Waldman on Jul 24​

Beat writers are reporting that Williams has improved his route game. If Williams demonstrates enough improvement, he could easily become the third-most productive option in the passing game.
If Williams' gains aren't as significant as reported, he'll be a more refined vertical option with some gadgetry to his game in the short range. This will put him on par with Jahmyr Gibbs in terms of passing-game production and possibly fourth in the overall pecking order.

Jason Wood just ranked Jamo at WR65 yesterday.

*Cue @jon_mx self destructing*

Jason is one of our most analytical stat projectors as well. His projection for the entire DET offense is on the site as well.

 

[Deamon]

Here's where all the FBG staff ranked Jamo this week:
Jeff Bell: WR42
Sigmund Bloom: WR43
Andy Hicks: WR44
Bob Henry: WR45
Alfredo Brown: WR46
Dan Hindery: WR47
@Joey Wright WR49
Ben Cummins: WR49
Julia Papworth: WR51
Dave Kluge: WR53
Matt Waldman: WR54
Ryan Weisse: WR58
@Maurile Tremblay WR58
Hutchinson Brown: WR63
Victoria Geary: WR63
Jason Wood: WR65
Jeff Hasely: WR69
Bob Harris: WR74

And the flags we have all planted:
@jon_mx WR1
@Chaka WR18
@Deamon WR30
@BobbyLayne WR35

Just shocking how people in this thread differ from the 18 pro rankers at FBG. @Joe Bryant not saying who is right or wrong, but that discrepancy is gigantic.

 

[Deamon]

I see a path to him possibly being WR50 (ARSB/Laporta usage through the roof, Lions leading games huge and running all 2nd half, him improving a lot but not a mind blowing amount, etc)

That's mostly how we're seeing it today. It's a crowded group for receiving options.

If you click on the player name in our ranking, we display the comments from rankers. A couple right now for him:

Jason Wood on Aug 15​

Depth chart cleared up, Williams opportunity to make an impact is now

Matt Waldman on Jul 24​

Beat writers are reporting that Williams has improved his route game. If Williams demonstrates enough improvement, he could easily become the third-most productive option in the passing game.
If Williams' gains aren't as significant as reported, he'll be a more refined vertical option with some gadgetry to his game in the short range. This will put him on par with Jahmyr Gibbs in terms of passing-game production and possibly fourth in the overall pecking order.

Jason Wood just ranked Jamo at WR65 yesterday.

*Cue @jon_mx self destructing*

Jason is one of our most analytical stat projectors as well. His projection for the entire DET offense is on the site as well.

Yes I like his rankings a lot! Would love him and some of the others listed in the post above to come chat in here, I think it would be incredibly informative (and fun).

Kind of like a "debate our rankings with our staff!" kind of thing. Would be awesome.

 

[Chaka]

And the flags we have all planted:
@jon_mx WR1
@Chaka WR18
@Deamon WR30
@BobbyLayne WR35

Deepfake

 

[BobbyLayne]

the flags we have all planted:
@jon_mx WR1
@Chaka WR18
@Deamon WR30
@BobbyLayne WR35

sets calendar reminder

 

[jon_mx]

I see a path to him possibly being WR50 (ARSB/Laporta usage through the roof, Lions leading games huge and running all 2nd half, him improving a lot but not a mind blowing amount, etc)

That's mostly how we're seeing it today. It's a crowded group for receiving options.

If you click on the player name in our ranking, we display the comments from rankers. A couple right now for him:

Jason Wood on Aug 15​

Depth chart cleared up, Williams opportunity to make an impact is now

Matt Waldman on Jul 24​

Beat writers are reporting that Williams has improved his route game. If Williams demonstrates enough improvement, he could easily become the third-most productive option in the passing game.
If Williams' gains aren't as significant as reported, he'll be a more refined vertical option with some gadgetry to his game in the short range. This will put him on par with Jahmyr Gibbs in terms of passing-game production and possibly fourth in the overall pecking order.

Jason Wood just ranked Jamo at WR65 yesterday.

*Cue @jon_mx self destructing*

You are so obsessed, you con. There is zero chance a healthy Jamo is below WR50. It doesn't bother me, but the mass consensus on Jamo are hung up on false negatives and are grossly incorrect. Jamo is a high floor/high ceiling WR. Ben Johnson's offense is very effective at spreading the ball around. Detroit's offense has been great the last 1.5 seasons and will be better this year.
Jamo is a top 20 WR. People rating Jamo as WR50-65 might as well rank Tyrek Hill as WR25. Jamo is the one of the most obvious steals of the draft ever.

 

[Deamon]

You are so obsessed, you con

dude...

Jamo is a top 20 WR. People rating Jamo as WR50-65 might as well rank Tyrek Hill as WR25. Jamo is the one of the most obvious steals of the draft ever.

lol I have a feeling you are going to be disappearing from these boards after this season lol

 

[jon_mx]

And the flags we have all planted:
@jon_mx WR1
@Chaka WR18
@Deamon WR30
@BobbyLayne WR35

If you want to mock me for hyperbole projections, why not be honest with what I said? My projection was around WR16 with a calculated potential of WR7 type numbers.

 

[massraider]

Just shocking how people in this thread differ from the 18 pro rankers at FBG

I think the guys who do it full time take a more sober, data-driven approach.

Individual owners? It's just more fun, more exciting to take the Jameson.

 

[massraider]

Is anyone saying Gibbs, ARSB, and Porta are gonna disappoint?

If not, then my take is why is Goff QB 13TH or whatever.

If a QB supports a WR1, a TE1, an RB1, and whatever optimistic Jameson projections are, that is a top 5 QB

 

[Leroy Hoard]

A lot of people drinking right from the bottle.

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