WR Jameson Williams, DET (11 Viewers)

[msudaisy26]

A lot of people drinking right from the bottle.

Access Denied

But some have had a few more swigs then others.

 

[oswizzle]

At this point … you might as well declare the guy can walk on water and not get wet … Charles Rodgers meets Roy Williams on the next Calvin Johnson podcast

 

[J Giles Band]

It is always fun when someone here throws out something like 'there is a zero chance player X finishes below WR50'. Never mind said player has never finished above WR50... good times.

I think anyone can look at the draft pedigree, talent and Lions offense and see the upside for a better than the average expected WR finish here. But there are a lot of mouths to feed in Detroit who are clearly ahead of Jameson in the pecking order before he would sniff some of the ridiculousness that has been projected here. Not to mention he has done very little in the consistency department to warrant such guarantees. Oh... and he is high floor on top of it? I almost spit out my drink on that one.

If he truly figures out how to be a professional (and I don't mean the offseason puff pieces on how the light has come on), I like the upside as well. But if you look really closely at his career to this point... the reality is, he is likely closer to being out of a job in Detroit than a top 20 WR finish.

I'd stick closer to Bobby Layne on this one... he actually puts in the work to justify his projections. Right or wrong, I respect the time and effort he puts into what he puts out there.

 

[jon_mx]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

 

[Deamon]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Once again, no one is saying that.

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

The projections you think are unrealistic are in fact extremely realistic and are probably closer to the floor than the ceiling.

Listen to yourself man, you literally said WR16 is closer to his floor. Put your money where your mouth is.... you're saying WR16 is close to his floor, but you are asking people to bet on if he will beat WR40.

If WR16 is close to his floor, why don't you throw out bets that he will reach his floor? Floor means absolute lowest.

How about WR25 or higher? Would you take that?

 

[BobbyLayne]

If not, then my take is why is Goff QB 13TH or whatever.

maths

the problem for any immobile QB is they have to everything fall into place (e.g., outlier TD%) just to get anywhere near the Top 5

Goff was QB2 in FF points from passing last year, but finished QB7 because was so far behind the other QBs in FF Pts from rushing.

Name

Team

GP

COMP

PASS ATT

PASS YARDS

TDS

INT

RUSHATT

YARDS

TDS

FUM LOST

FF POINTS

/G AVG

1. Josh Allen​

BUF​

17​

385​

579​

4,306​

29​

18​

111​

524​

15​

4​

386.64​

22.7​

2. Jalen Hurts​

PHI​

17​

352​

538​

3,858​

23​

15​

157​

605​

15​

5​

356.82​

21.0​

3. Dak Prescott​

DAL​

17​

410​

590​

4,516​

36​

9​

55​

242​

2​

2​

338.84​

19.9​

4. Lamar Jackson​

BAL​

16​

307​

457​

3,678​

24​

7​

148​

821​

5​

6​

329.22​

20.6​

5. Jordan Love​

GB​

17​

372​

579​

4,159​

32​

11​

50​

247​

4​

3​

315.06​

18.5​

6. Brock Purdy​

SF​

16​

308​

444​

4,280​

31​

11​

39​

144​

2​

2​

295.60​

18.5​

7. Jared Goff​

DET​

17​

407​

605​

4,575​

30​

12​

32​

21​

2​

3​

287.10​

16.9​

8. Patrick Mahomes​

KC​

16​

401​

597​

4,183​

27​

14​

75​

389​

0​

3​

280.22​

17.5​

9. C.J. Stroud​

HOU​

15​

319​

499​

4,108​

23​

5​

39​

167​

3​

4​

273.02​

18.2​

10. Tua Tagovailoa​

MIA​

17​

388​

560​

4,624​

29​

14​

35​

74​

0​

5​

270.36​

15.9​

Points from passing:

1. Prescott 306.64
2. Goff 279.0
3. Purdy 273.2
4. Love 272.36
5. Tagovailoa 272.96
6. Allen 252.24
7. Mahomes 247.32
8. Stroud 246.32
9. Jackson 229.12
10. Hurts 216.32

Points from rushing (including FL):

1. Hurts 140.5
2. Allen 134.4
3. Jackson 100.1
4. Love 42.7
5. Mahomes 32.9
6. Prescott 32.2
7. Stroud 26.7
8. Purdy 22.4
9. Goff 8.1
10. Tagovailoa (-2.6)

---

Back to the Jamo math

 

[TheWinz]

the problem for any immobile QB is they have to everything fall into place (e.g., outlier TD%) just to get anywhere near the Top 5

Goff was QB2 in FF points from passing last year, but finished QB7 because was so far behind the other QBs in FF Pts from rushing.

Agreed, but this is why you really need to know your league scoring. For example, in the Sleeper leagues that Joey Wright set up for us, the scoring is 1 pt per 20 yards passing, 6 per TD pass, and -1 per INT. That favors non-running QB's. Using the Sleeper scoring vs yours above, Lamar Jackson outscored Jared Goff by less than 10 points instead of by over 40, and Dak Prescott actually outscored Jalen Hurts by 9 points. But yes, in leagues where it's 1 pt per 25 yards passing, 4 per TD pass, and -2 per INT, immobile QB's are at a pretty big disadvantage.

 

[msudaisy26]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

A couple of days ago it was wr 30.

 

[jon_mx]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Once again, no one is saying that.

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

The projections you think are unrealistic are in fact extremely realistic and are probably closer to the floor than the ceiling.

Listen to yourself man, you literally said WR16 is closer to his floor. Put your money where your mouth is.... you're saying WR16 is close to his floor, but you are asking people to bet on if he will beat WR40.

If WR16 is close to his floor, why don't you throw out bets that he will reach his floor? Floor means absolute lowest.

How about WR25 or higher? Would you take that?

Everytime you quote me you lie. Stop being a liar. I specifically quoted and talked about catch rate and target share. It was the 68 percent catch rate and the 16 percent target share which i clearly highlighted and quoted that I called closer to the floor and easily achievable. Why do you keep misquoting what I say. My projection on Jamo's season are:

Catch rate will be around 70 percent.

He will get around 6 targets per game, which about a 17 percent targer share.

He will catch 70 passes or about 4 per game.

He will get around 1040 yards, or about 15 yards per catch.

Every one of those projections are reasonable and is supported. I believe using Josh Reynolds target share or what Jamo did in the past two seasons is a huge fallacy and causing projections to be massively off. Jamo has finally had a full camp, jamo is finally healthy, Jamo's route tree has been wildly expanded, Jamo's role in the offense has been elevated, Jamo has no real competition from a WR3, Goff has gain much confidence in him, Jamo has worked out hard and is stronger than ever, Jamo has greatly matured, and Jamo is a much bigger weapon than Reynolds could ever be.

There are no target hogs in Detroit. Both Ben Johnson and Goff like to spread the ball around. Goff goes through his progressions and hits who he thinks has sufficient separation or is in a gap in the zone. Jamo, LaPorta, and Saint will all be around and possibly above the 1,000 yard mark.

 

[jon_mx]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

A couple of days ago it was wr 30.

Not quite what was said, but you are a huge Jamo skeptic so can i put you down for $100?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

If not, then my take is why is Goff QB 13TH or whatever.

maths

the problem for any immobile QB is they have to everything fall into place (e.g., outlier TD%) just to get anywhere near the Top 5

Goff was QB2 in FF points from passing last year, but finished QB7 because was so far behind the other QBs in FF Pts from rushing.

Name

Team

GP

COMP

PASS ATT

PASS YARDS

TDS

INT

RUSHATT

YARDS

TDS

FUM LOST

FF POINTS

/G AVG

1. Josh Allen​

BUF​

17​

385​

579​

4,306​

29​

18​

111​

524​

15​

4​

386.64​

22.7​

2. Jalen Hurts​

PHI​

17​

352​

538​

3,858​

23​

15​

157​

605​

15​

5​

356.82​

21.0​

3. Dak Prescott​

DAL​

17​

410​

590​

4,516​

36​

9​

55​

242​

2​

2​

338.84​

19.9​

4. Lamar Jackson​

BAL​

16​

307​

457​

3,678​

24​

7​

148​

821​

5​

6​

329.22​

20.6​

5. Jordan Love​

GB​

17​

372​

579​

4,159​

32​

11​

50​

247​

4​

3​

315.06​

18.5​

6. Brock Purdy​

SF​

16​

308​

444​

4,280​

31​

11​

39​

144​

2​

2​

295.60​

18.5​

7. Jared Goff​

DET​

17​

407​

605​

4,575​

30​

12​

32​

21​

2​

3​

287.10​

16.9​

8. Patrick Mahomes​

KC​

16​

401​

597​

4,183​

27​

14​

75​

389​

0​

3​

280.22​

17.5​

9. C.J. Stroud​

HOU​

15​

319​

499​

4,108​

23​

5​

39​

167​

3​

4​

273.02​

18.2​

10. Tua Tagovailoa​

MIA​

17​

388​

560​

4,624​

29​

14​

35​

74​

0​

5​

270.36​

15.9​

Points from passing:

1. Prescott 306.64
2. Goff 279.0
3. Purdy 273.2
4. Love 272.36
5. Tagovailoa 272.96
6. Allen 252.24
7. Mahomes 247.32
8. Stroud 246.32
9. Jackson 229.12
10. Hurts 216.32

Points from rushing (including FL):

1. Hurts 140.5
2. Allen 134.4
3. Jackson 100.1
4. Love 42.7
5. Mahomes 32.9
6. Prescott 32.2
7. Stroud 26.7
8. Purdy 22.4
9. Goff 8.1
10. Tagovailoa (-2.6)

---

Back to the Jamo math

What I find odd is that Mahomes had zero rushing TDs.

 

[msudaisy26]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

A couple of days ago it was wr 30.

Not quite what was said, but you are a huge Jamo skeptic so can i put you down for $100?

I never said that you just like to think it because I don't think he is as good as you do.

 

[nysfl2]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Once again, no one is saying that.

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

The projections you think are unrealistic are in fact extremely realistic and are probably closer to the floor than the ceiling.

Listen to yourself man, you literally said WR16 is closer to his floor. Put your money where your mouth is.... you're saying WR16 is close to his floor, but you are asking people to bet on if he will beat WR40.

If WR16 is close to his floor, why don't you throw out bets that he will reach his floor? Floor means absolute lowest.

How about WR25 or higher? Would you take that?

Literally every fbg staffer has him ranked below WR40. I agree with Jon that he’s a tremendous value at his current adp. WR25 is probably a good over/under for him.

 

[jon_mx]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Once again, no one is saying that.

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

The projections you think are unrealistic are in fact extremely realistic and are probably closer to the floor than the ceiling.

Listen to yourself man, you literally said WR16 is closer to his floor. Put your money where your mouth is.... you're saying WR16 is close to his floor, but you are asking people to bet on if he will beat WR40.

If WR16 is close to his floor, why don't you throw out bets that he will reach his floor? Floor means absolute lowest.

How about WR25 or higher? Would you take that?

Because I am not stupid. Why would I bet on something that is a couple standard deviations away from what the expert's mean is. By their projections there should be only about 5 percent chance of me being right. If someone believes the experts (oddly not one single person seems to), I should be getting 20 to 1 odds on such a bold projection. IMHO, the experts projection on Jamo is the result of groupthink.

 

[Deamon]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Once again, no one is saying that.

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

The projections you think are unrealistic are in fact extremely realistic and are probably closer to the floor than the ceiling.

Listen to yourself man, you literally said WR16 is closer to his floor. Put your money where your mouth is.... you're saying WR16 is close to his floor, but you are asking people to bet on if he will beat WR40.

If WR16 is close to his floor, why don't you throw out bets that he will reach his floor? Floor means absolute lowest.

How about WR25 or higher? Would you take that?

Because I am not stupid. Why would I bet on something that is a couple standard deviations away from what the expert's mean is. By their projections there should be only about 5 percent chance of me being right. If someone believes the experts (oddly not one single person seems to), I should be getting 20 to 1 odds on such a bold projection. IMHO, the experts projection on Jamo is the result of groupthink.

When did I say I believed those experts? You keep forgetting that I have him ranked as WR30 this year, which is much above all of them. So why do you keep asking me to bet AGAINST what I believe will happen? You've lost your mind homie.

 

[Deamon]

Speaking of strawman, I never said 76-1400-12 TDs. It was 76-1140-9.

He will get around 1040 yards,

Once again it is changed I see. Make up your mind then come let us know lol

 

[need2know]

Goff is gonna throw for alot of tds. More than last year. And jameson is gonna get a bunch of.them. no math required

 

[TheWinz]

We have to talk about Goff's numbers if we are going to talk about how his receivers will do. First, many people are saying he will be limited this year because DET won't have to throw with big leads. That's a misnomer. I went back and looked at the 5 highest passing yardage seasons, and all of them kept throwing, even with large leads. Their records were 13-3, 13-3, 13-4, 14-3, and 13-3, and they all were top 5 in point differential. They could've slowed down and started handing it off, but they didn't. The 5 teams ended up 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th in pass attempts. And they finished with 55, 46, 43, 41, and 39 passing TD's. Now, I'm not saying Goff is going to have a top 5 all-time QB season. But I am saying the teams above didn't take their foot off the gas with the lead, and it doesn't sound like something Campbell would do either.

Goff was 2nd in the league in pass attempts last year, and the team finished tied for the 2nd best record in the league. He was 2nd in passing yardage and 4th in TD's. No one would say it's farfetched to think he can duplicate last year's numbers (4571 yards/30 TD's), so let's start there.
25 more yards per game gets him to 5K = that's actually more than it sounds, but it's not crazy
TD's are too hard to predict, but increasing from 30 to 35 seems quite reasonable

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Here's where all the FBG staff ranked Jamo this week:
Jeff Bell: WR42
Sigmund Bloom: WR43
Andy Hicks: WR44
Bob Henry: WR45
Alfredo Brown: WR46
Dan Hindery: WR47
@Joey Wright WR49
Ben Cummins: WR49
Julia Papworth: WR51
Dave Kluge: WR53
Matt Waldman: WR54
Ryan Weisse: WR58
@Maurile Tremblay WR58
Hutchinson Brown: WR63
Victoria Geary: WR63
Jason Wood: WR65
Jeff Hasely: WR69
Bob Harris: WR74

And the flags we have all planted:
@jon_mx WR1
@Chaka WR18
@Deamon WR30
@BobbyLayne WR35

Just shocking how people in this thread differ from the 18 pro rankers at FBG. @Joe Bryant not saying who is right or wrong, but that discrepancy is gigantic.

When I took him in the 7th this week in my 12-team redraft, he was WR42.

Now, that league starts 2 RB, 3 WR and 2 flex, so people load up on RBs and WRs early. No QB was taken until the 4th round, and most teams waited until the 8th or later to take their first one.

 

[jon_mx]

Jamo with a killer ungaurdable double move in camp.

And Finally, Sporting News gets a Jamo projection it close..sees Jamo as a high WR2 or at least a flex guy.

Jameson Williams fantasy football outlook for the 2024 NFL season

 

[BassNBrew]

Jamo with a killer ungaurdable double move in camp.

And Finally, Sporting News gets a Jamo projection it close..sees Jamo as a high WR2 or at least a flex guy.

Jameson Williams fantasy football outlook for the 2024 NFL season

One thing we can agree on is that these helmets make the WRs and CBs look like peewee players.

 

[jon_mx]

Jamo with a killer ungaurdable double move in camp.

And Finally, Sporting News gets a Jamo projection it close..sees Jamo as a high WR2 or at least a flex guy.

Jameson Williams fantasy football outlook for the 2024 NFL season

One thing we can agree on is that these helmets make the WRs and CBs look like peewee players.

Eventually they will be playing in bubble wrap.

 

[jon_mx]

BTW, FanDuel is giving out free money.

Jamo +490 to go over 1000 recieving yards.

Nearly 5 to 1 on what should be around 50/50. 28 players went over 1000 yards last year.

 

[BobbyLayne]

We are Justin Jefferson days away from starting to find out

 

[Chaka]

That move was sick. Full stop.

 

[barackdhouse]

Here's where all the FBG staff ranked Jamo this week:
Jeff Bell: WR42
Sigmund Bloom: WR43
Andy Hicks: WR44
Bob Henry: WR45
Alfredo Brown: WR46
Dan Hindery: WR47
@Joey Wright WR49
Ben Cummins: WR49
Julia Papworth: WR51
Dave Kluge: WR53
Matt Waldman: WR54
Ryan Weisse: WR58
@Maurile Tremblay WR58
Hutchinson Brown: WR63
Victoria Geary: WR63
Jason Wood: WR65
Jeff Hasely: WR69
Bob Harris: WR74

And the flags we have all planted:
@jon_mx WR1
@Chaka WR18
@Deamon WR30
@BobbyLayne WR35

Just shocking how people in this thread differ from the 18 pro rankers at FBG. @Joe Bryant not saying who is right or wrong, but that discrepancy is gigantic.

For the record I also have him much higher - at WR22

 

[Lansdowne]

Jamo with a killer ungaurdable double move in camp.

That will be sick on every play where Goff has 5 seconds to throw. Totally sick.

I'm being pedantic here but 3 seconds elapsed from the snap to the time Goff released the football. Totally feasible. Also the Lions could have the best offensive line in the NFL, if not second to the Eagles. So even though you were being sarcastic, I'd say Goff having 5 seconds to throw on a given play is in the range of outcomes.

 

[barackdhouse]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

 

[barackdhouse]

Jamo with a killer ungaurdable double move in camp.

That will be sick on every play where Goff has 5 seconds to throw. Totally sick.

I'm being pedantic here but 3 seconds elapsed from the snap to the time Goff released the football. Totally feasible. Also the Lions could have the best offensive line in the NFL, if not second to the Eagles. So even though you were being sarcastic, I'd say Goff having 5 seconds to throw on a given play is in the range of outcomes.

I've seen some really nice plays from various training camps this month (on TV) where the QB would have got murdered if he wasn't wearing the red jersey

 

[Lansdowne]

Jamo with a killer ungaurdable double move in camp.

That will be sick on every play where Goff has 5 seconds to throw. Totally sick.

I'm being pedantic here but 3 seconds elapsed from the snap to the time Goff released the football. Totally feasible. Also the Lions could have the best offensive line in the NFL, if not second to the Eagles. So even though you were being sarcastic, I'd say Goff having 5 seconds to throw on a given play is in the range of outcomes.

I've seen some really nice plays from various training camps this month (on TV) where the QB would have got murdered if he wasn't wearing the red jersey

Yeah, the 1-on-1 drills and 7-on-7 should be taken with a grain of salt. It's different when there are stakes in regular season games and everyone is going full throttle.

 

[massraider]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

I think it's fair to wonder if ASRB and LaPorta might not be able to reach upside with Gibbs and Jameson there.

 

[BobbyLayne]

If RT Penei Sewell (ankle) misses any significant time, downgrade all Lions.

The #1 ranked OL in the NFL is thin, their bench is full of long term (4-5) project players. If it’s Dan Skipper time, they’ll be OKish, but def won’t be operating at the same high level.

 

[massraider]

If RT Penei Sewell (ankle) misses any significant time, downgrade all Lions.

The #1 ranked OL in the NFL is thin, their bench is full of long term (4-5) project players. If it’s Dan Skipper time, they’ll be OKish, but def won’t be operating at the same high level.

They gonna run Montgomery 350 times, and give everyone a bleeding ulcer, aren't they?

 

[FBG Moderator]

You two are being complete tools.

Don't do this.

Everyone drop the back and forth on each other and keep it 100% on the NFL.

 

[Deamon]

Man, some people are just searching for ways to cast negativity on this guy.

That move was sick. Full stop.

Who has cast negativity on him?

Have you seen a single person in this thread (or anywhere) suggest that Jamo isn't a good value at his ADP, or won't overachieve his expectations? I haven't.

 

[Deamon]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

I think it's fair to wonder if ASRB and LaPorta might not be able to reach upside with Gibbs and Jameson there.

Everyone wants to say that all of them will eat, but like you say, that can't happen. I would absolutely LOVE to have some of the FBG rankers in here discussing why they have him in the WR60+ range.

That said, to speak to your message, I think the truth will likely lie in the middle as it always does. The step back from ARSB and Laporta will be small, and the increase to Gibbs and Jamo will be medium.

 

[BassNBrew]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

It's more a Goff issue

2024

Tremblay

16.6

395.0

603.0

4357

24.9

15.6

33.0

50

1.3

1.0

Projecting yards per attempt to drop from 7.6 to 7.2. Projecting a 17% regression in TDs.

2024

Wood

16.0

383.0

575.0

4350

28.0

12.0

35.0

50

1.0

4.0

Reasonable but lower than last year.

2024

Freeman

17.0

297.0

416.8

4583

30.3

7.9

33.8

59

1.9

4.5

Projecting an all time NFL record for yards per completion (adios Joe Namath) and yards per attempt. Shattering the NFL record in the later by 15%.

@Joe Bryant Is there someone we can @ in situations like this? It's very cumbersome to submit a ticket.

 

[barackdhouse]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

It's more a Goff issue

Not when you look at things from a target share perspective. If the offense as a whole does more/less/same as last year is one question yes. What I'm saying is that any positive growth statistically and on the field from Jamo is going to come from LaPorta. Regardless of whether Detroit Offense does more/less/same in aggregate. And I've said that a bunch. It may very well be that Jamo doesn't get to the level of being consistently startable in fantasy, but if all the reasons people are using against him hold true, they have to hold true against LaPorta as well (to a degree anyway). And I've shown above (granted it was pages ago now) how they can have a season far less than historic and if Jamo eats into LaPorta even just a little bit and gets into that upper teen% share and in a perfect world all the way up to 20%, it really wouldn't require a big dip by LaPorta.

I feel like anytime anyone says "it would have to have everything go right and they'd have to have a historic season" I'm like no they wouldn't not if other players get fewer targets. The entire narrative of Jamo making any noise whatsoever is that it would have to come at the expense of someone else in the pie. Whether that pie is bigger smaller or the same as last year let's be real and acknowledge this offense is going to run plays and they're going to score points. Anyway, I've more than said my piece. It has been like pulling teeth to get someone to defend LaPorta being ranked so high and Jamo so low. It's a gigantic disparity that has absolutely zero to do with Jared Goff.

 

[Chaka]

Man, some people are just searching for ways to cast negativity on this guy.

That move was sick. Full stop.

Who has cast negativity on him?

Have you seen a single person in this thread (or anywhere) suggest that Jamo isn't a good value at his ADP, or won't overachieve his expectations? I haven't.

Looks like a couple posts above have been pruned from the thread. My post now lacks context. I will delete it.

 

[Joe Bryant]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

Thanks.

You're asking the right questions in it's a blend of the pie as a whole and the slices of the pie that all go together to make the whole.

This is how our 4 offensive projectors forecast every player for Detroit down to the last yard. https://www.footballguys.com/projec...os=all&stafferName=&durationTypeKey=preseason

 

[jon_mx]

Goff threw 604 passes last season, I think it goes up to about 620.

Ben is good at mixing up the play calling, and Goff is good at going through his progressions. Relying too much on lasts years numbers is a fallacy. The mix will be more distributed this season. Saint had 164 targets last year, I see it around 150 this year. LaPorta targets will bump up slightly from 120 to the 130 range. Jamo gets about 110 and Gibbs around 100. That is 490 of Goffs 620. That is 79 percent of the team's targets.

Goff has thrown for over 4500 yards three times, and I fully expect him to exceed that level again and approach 4800 yards. This offense is better than last years, mostly due for replacing Reynolds with a much more dangerous Jamo. LaPorta, Jamo and Saint all go over 1000. There is nothing far fetched or crazy about that happening. With the extra game and pass friendly rules it will happen more often.

What would be odd is if over 100 fantasy experts all got it so wrong. It is not like Jamo came out of nowhere. He is very high profile player with elite speed and elusiveness on a team which almost went to the Super Bowl. 5 career rushes for 111 yards is insane. He is the clearcut WR2 on perhaps the top offense in the NFL. The coaches and players love him and want him to get the ball. WR50??? Is heard mentality that strong? Not a single dissenter outside of one Sporting News writer. To me it is odd.

 

[BassNBrew]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

It's more a Goff issue

Not when you look at things from a target share perspective. If the offense as a whole does more/less/same as last year is one question yes. What I'm saying is that any positive growth statistically and on the field from Jamo is going to come from LaPorta. Regardless of whether Detroit Offense does more/less/same in aggregate. And I've said that a bunch. It may very well be that Jamo doesn't get to the level of being consistently startable in fantasy, but if all the reasons people are using against him hold true, they have to hold true against LaPorta as well (to a degree anyway). And I've shown above (granted it was pages ago now) how they can have a season far less than historic and if Jamo eats into LaPorta even just a little bit and gets into that upper teen% share and in a perfect world all the way up to 20%, it really wouldn't require a big dip by LaPorta.

I feel like anytime anyone says "it would have to have everything go right and they'd have to have a historic season" I'm like no they wouldn't not if other players get fewer targets. The entire narrative of Jamo making any noise whatsoever is that it would have to come at the expense of someone else in the pie. Whether that pie is bigger smaller or the same as last year let's be real and acknowledge this offense is going to run plays and they're going to score points. Anyway, I've more than said my piece. It has been like pulling teeth to get someone to defend LaPorta being ranked so high and Jamo so low. It's a gigantic disparity that has absolutely zero to do with Jared Goff.

Even when you look at it from a target share. You have one projector, projecting 200 less attempts. 15% of 600 = 90 > 20% of 400 = 80

 

[BassNBrew]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

Thanks.

You're asking the right questions in it's a blend of the pie as a whole and the slices of the pie that all go together to make the whole.

This is how our 4 offensive projectors forecast every player for Detroit down to the last yard. https://www.footballguys.com/projec...os=all&stafferName=&durationTypeKey=preseason

@Joe Bryant You have a serious problem with the program. I added up Freeman's receptions for each players and it comes to about 422. That matches the Goff plus Hooker attempts which then is factored down to get the number of Goff completions. I'll take the time to submit a ticket since this is a serious issue. Seems to be across the board for Freeman.

 

[bluemanfoo]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

It's more a Goff issue

Not when you look at things from a target share perspective. If the offense as a whole does more/less/same as last year is one question yes. What I'm saying is that any positive growth statistically and on the field from Jamo is going to come from LaPorta. Regardless of whether Detroit Offense does more/less/same in aggregate. And I've said that a bunch. It may very well be that Jamo doesn't get to the level of being consistently startable in fantasy, but if all the reasons people are using against him hold true, they have to hold true against LaPorta as well (to a degree anyway). And I've shown above (granted it was pages ago now) how they can have a season far less than historic and if Jamo eats into LaPorta even just a little bit and gets into that upper teen% share and in a perfect world all the way up to 20%, it really wouldn't require a big dip by LaPorta.

I feel like anytime anyone says "it would have to have everything go right and they'd have to have a historic season" I'm like no they wouldn't not if other players get fewer targets. The entire narrative of Jamo making any noise whatsoever is that it would have to come at the expense of someone else in the pie. Whether that pie is bigger smaller or the same as last year let's be real and acknowledge this offense is going to run plays and they're going to score points. Anyway, I've more than said my piece. It has been like pulling teeth to get someone to defend LaPorta being ranked so high and Jamo so low. It's a gigantic disparity that has absolutely zero to do with Jared Goff.

Yes it's unconceivable to people that Jamo could eat into the targets of LaPorta and even Amon-Ra. Jamo is a freak physically, and if he has indeed greatly improved as reports have stated, Ben Johnson will find a way to get the ball in Jamo's hands.

 

[Joe Bryant]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

Thanks.

You're asking the right questions in it's a blend of the pie as a whole and the slices of the pie that all go together to make the whole.

This is how our 4 offensive projectors forecast every player for Detroit down to the last yard. https://www.footballguys.com/projec...os=all&stafferName=&durationTypeKey=preseason

@Joe Bryant You have a serious problem with the program. I added up Freeman's receptions for each players and it comes to about 422. That matches the Goff plus Hooker attempts which then is factored down to get the number of Goff completions. I'll take the time to submit a ticket since this is a serious issue. Seems to be across the board for Freeman.

Not sure what you mean with the "program". Do you mean Justin Freeman's projections? I'll ask him to take a look there and make sure things align. Thanks for the feedback there.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Saint had 164 targets last year, I see it around 150 this year.

Yes it's unconceivable to people that Jamo could eat into the targets of LaPorta and even Amon-Ra.

cool, cool

Opinions vary, eh.

I project St Brown with a range of 181-193 targets ~

130-1700-12 WR1 overall

fight me

Hey, we're just talking ball here.....so, ya know, everybody just calm down.

 

[BobbyLayne]

If RT Penei Sewell (ankle) misses any significant time, downgrade all Lions.

The #1 ranked OL in the NFL is thin, their bench is full of long term (4-5) project players. If it’s Dan Skipper time, they’ll be OKish, but def won’t be operating at the same high level.

They gonna run Montgomery 350 times, and give everyone a bleeding ulcer, aren't they?

Justin Rogers reporting Sewell will be fine. 17 days, get him in bubble wrap, let him out for strength & conditioning only.

Need that man safe.

 

[BassNBrew]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

Thanks.

You're asking the right questions in it's a blend of the pie as a whole and the slices of the pie that all go together to make the whole.

This is how our 4 offensive projectors forecast every player for Detroit down to the last yard. https://www.footballguys.com/projec...os=all&stafferName=&durationTypeKey=preseason

@Joe Bryant You have a serious problem with the program. I added up Freeman's receptions for each players and it comes to about 422. That matches the Goff plus Hooker attempts which then is factored down to get the number of Goff completions. I'll take the time to submit a ticket since this is a serious issue. Seems to be across the board for Freeman.

Not sure what you mean with the "program". Do you mean Justin Freeman's projections? I'll ask him to take a look there and make sure things align. Thanks for the feedback there.

It was the same issue on two QBs. Adding up the WR receptions equaled the amount of QB attempts, not completions. I just found it strange that happen on both Goff and Allen so I assumed there was some sort of spreadsheet issue just on his projections.

 

[BobbyLayne]

sounds like sloppy copy on the spreadsheet formula

 

[BassNBrew]

sounds like sloppy copy on the spreadsheet formula

Was hoping for some records to fall.