I think the first team ever with two 1000 yard receivers and two 1000 yard rushersDetroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Except David Montgomery missed 3 plus games and did not make it. He ended with 775.I think the first team ever with two 1000 yard receivers and two 1000 yard rushersDetroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
You also keep adjusting your results based on what works best for your argument. Bonus leagues we aren't going by, are far from the standard, yet you keep posting about your rules. And then in PPG, you're adding 8 games minimum.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
Yep exactly. And he also also said in preseason that he could see him going in round 3 this year! Now that's a big miss.It's not a fallacy. It's ben dissected in a FBG article that looked back 10 years. Reaching a round or two for Burrow/Kittle because you planned to reach for Jamo just cascades the problem.This is a proven losing strategy over time. Guys who took him in the 9th rather than reaching and loaded up on Burrow, Kittle, JSN, Bowers, McConkey in the prior rounds came out way ahead.Bold predictions can make you consider a player differently. They don't have to be 100% accurate to be right -- in the sense that they guide you to draft the player a round or two earlier than consensus to make sure you get him (in auction leagues, he would typically go fairly cheaply unless there was another truther with dough left when his name is called).
So kudos to jon_mx whose stat projection was more accurate (in terms of upside -- actual TD totals are very tough to predict) than what you may have read on ESPN or somewhere...granted the process for most is probably to extrapolate from the previous seasons which is hard to do for a player that missed so much time...so it created a buying opportunity due to the unknown factor. And of course he could have been even better if not for the suspension.
I was super high on him going into this season and got him everywhere without reading touts from this thread but that's partly because a few of my leagues have TD distance bonuses (where he is huge).
This is a fallacy. Getting Jamo in the 7th or 8th does not prevent you from taking Kittle/Burrow in the 6th or MoConkey in the 9th. You can use hindsight and cherry pick a few guys that turned out, but for everyone you find there are 3x that who did not workout so great like Prescott, Javante William or Jake Ferguson (who is much closer to where you would have reached up to get Jamo than Kittle).
You also keep adjusting your results based on what works best for your argument. Bonus leagues we aren't going by, are far from the standard, yet you keep posting about your rules. And then in PPG, you're adding 8 games minimum.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
Overall he was WR22 or WR27 whichever way you want to look at it. Neither is "one of the best WR2's in the league". THAT is the remark I am refuting, as he keeps calling him one of the best fantasy WRs this year which he was not.
WR46 in my league. 2x points during the deer season. In the neighborhood of Leggette, Wandale, Slayton, McCloud who were waiver wire guys. Pretty much a bust in my league.You also keep adjusting your results based on what works best for your argument. Bonus leagues we aren't going by, are far from the standard, yet you keep posting about your rules. And then in PPG, you're adding 8 games minimum.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
Overall he was WR22 or WR27 whichever way you want to look at it. Neither is "one of the best WR2's in the league". THAT is the remark I am refuting, as he keeps calling him one of the best fantasy WRs this year which he was not.
WR46 in my league. 2x points during the deer season. In the neighborhood of Leggette, Wandale, Slayton, McCloud who were waiver wire guys. Pretty much a bust in my league.You also keep adjusting your results based on what works best for your argument. Bonus leagues we aren't going by, are far from the standard, yet you keep posting about your rules. And then in PPG, you're adding 8 games minimum.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
Overall he was WR22 or WR27 whichever way you want to look at it. Neither is "one of the best WR2's in the league". THAT is the remark I am refuting, as he keeps calling him one of the best fantasy WRs this year which he was not.
Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
WR23 total points in our league, GB. Not sure how to parse by PPG on the Sleeper website.You also keep adjusting your results based on what works best for your argument. Bonus leagues we aren't going by, are far from the standard, yet you keep posting about your rules. And then in PPG, you're adding 8 games minimum.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
Overall he was WR22 or WR27 whichever way you want to look at it. Neither is "one of the best WR2's in the league". THAT is the remark I am refuting, as he keeps calling him one of the best fantasy WRs this year which he was not.
Come on, now. You both seem to enjoy trolling each other. We are just the innocents caught in the crossfire.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
He has pretty much mixed up and lied or grossly exaggerated my position a dozen times over. Trolling.
Didn't you try to end the season after week 14?You also keep adjusting your results based on what works best for your argument.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
Oh yeah it was scrimmage yardsExcept David Montgomery missed 3 plus games and did not make it. He ended with 775.I think the first team ever with two 1000 yard receivers and two 1000 yard rushersDetroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
I'm in three leagues:
In league 1:
WR 22 overall
WR 27 PPG
In league 2:
WR 23 overall
WR 24 PPG
In league 3 (bonus for long TD's):
WR 17 overall
WR 17 PPG
@jon_mx , PM me your PayPal (or other payment info) and I'll send over your $100. Nice call this year!
You'd think they'd be popular in Michigan, maybe just Wisconsin.WR46 in my league. 2x points during the deer season. In the neighborhood of Leggette, Wandale, Slayton, McCloud who were waiver wire guys. Pretty much a bust in my league.You also keep adjusting your results based on what works best for your argument. Bonus leagues we aren't going by, are far from the standard, yet you keep posting about your rules. And then in PPG, you're adding 8 games minimum.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
Overall he was WR22 or WR27 whichever way you want to look at it. Neither is "one of the best WR2's in the league". THAT is the remark I am refuting, as he keeps calling him one of the best fantasy WRs this year which he was not.
Damn, I forgot about deer leagues.
So serious question, does Jamo unseat ASB next year? He has the better pedigree. Couldn't this be a Puka/Kupp situation back before Kupp ****ed Stafford's wife.
So serious question, does Jamo unseat ASB next year? He has the better pedigree. Couldn't this be a Puka/Kupp situation back before Kupp ****ed Stafford's wife.
No way. ARSB has the ability to get open in tight coverage, catch any ball, and is a tough runner after the catch. ARSB talents fit the style of play Goff is great at. Jamo is more the big play over the top guy, which Goff is only OK at. Jamo compliments and opens uo what they have in LaPorta and ARSB as well as the running game. Jamos numbers can go up, but ARSB will be the target guy with around 100 catches
how WR19 and 20?WR23 total points in our league, GB. Not sure how to parse by PPG on the Sleeper website.You also keep adjusting your results based on what works best for your argument. Bonus leagues we aren't going by, are far from the standard, yet you keep posting about your rules. And then in PPG, you're adding 8 games minimum.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
Overall he was WR22 or WR27 whichever way you want to look at it. Neither is "one of the best WR2's in the league". THAT is the remark I am refuting, as he keeps calling him one of the best fantasy WRs this year which he was not.
WR19 PPG & WR20 in total points in my main PPR league.
Only one off where I thought he could finish at the beginning of the year.![]()
If you don't remember, I was the closest to Jamo's real projections than anyone here.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
He has pretty much mixed up and lied or grossly exaggerated my position a dozen times over. Trolling.
If you don't remember, I was the closest to Jamo's real projections than anyone here.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
He has pretty much mixed up and lied or grossly exaggerated my position a dozen times over. Trolling.
I called 205, you called 280. He finished at 212.
Not sure what you're asking.how WR19 and 20?WR23 total points in our league, GB. Not sure how to parse by PPG on the Sleeper website.You also keep adjusting your results based on what works best for your argument. Bonus leagues we aren't going by, are far from the standard, yet you keep posting about your rules. And then in PPG, you're adding 8 games minimum.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
Overall he was WR22 or WR27 whichever way you want to look at it. Neither is "one of the best WR2's in the league". THAT is the remark I am refuting, as he keeps calling him one of the best fantasy WRs this year which he was not.
WR19 PPG & WR20 in total points in my main PPR league.
Only one off where I thought he could finish at the beginning of the year.![]()
Ya, wondering if your league had other special scoring as in my ppr leagues he wasn't as high.Not sure what you're asking.how WR19 and 20?WR23 total points in our league, GB. Not sure how to parse by PPG on the Sleeper website.You also keep adjusting your results based on what works best for your argument. Bonus leagues we aren't going by, are far from the standard, yet you keep posting about your rules. And then in PPG, you're adding 8 games minimum.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
Overall he was WR22 or WR27 whichever way you want to look at it. Neither is "one of the best WR2's in the league". THAT is the remark I am refuting, as he keeps calling him one of the best fantasy WRs this year which he was not.
WR19 PPG & WR20 in total points in my main PPR league.
Only one off where I thought he could finish at the beginning of the year.![]()
WR19 in PPG and WR20 in total points. That's just my main PPR leagues.
In the SP league you and I play in he is WR23 in total points. You should know, you drafted him.
Not sure where he landed in PPG in that league. I don't see a sort option for PPG.
Im not trolling at all, just showing that your projections were greatly overrated this year.If you don't remember, I was the closest to Jamo's real projections than anyone here.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
He has pretty much mixed up and lied or grossly exaggerated my position a dozen times over. Trolling.
I called 205, you called 280. He finished at 212.
I made numerous predictions, including his floor and his ceilings and expected productions. You keep cherry-picking and mistating/mischaractering what I predicted and said. I am really done with your trolling. Nobody cares. My point was always that the FF community was vastly underestimating Jamo which was 9/10 round WR50 plus. He was far far better than his consensus ADP. That is it. End of discussion.
Nope. Full PPR, which doesn't favor a WR like Williams. Offset by 12 bonus points, combined, for the distance of five of his TDs.Ya, wondering if your league had other special scoring as in my ppr leagues he wasn't as high.Not sure what you're asking.how WR19 and 20?WR23 total points in our league, GB. Not sure how to parse by PPG on the Sleeper website.You also keep adjusting your results based on what works best for your argument. Bonus leagues we aren't going by, are far from the standard, yet you keep posting about your rules. And then in PPG, you're adding 8 games minimum.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
Overall he was WR22 or WR27 whichever way you want to look at it. Neither is "one of the best WR2's in the league". THAT is the remark I am refuting, as he keeps calling him one of the best fantasy WRs this year which he was not.
WR19 PPG & WR20 in total points in my main PPR league.
Only one off where I thought he could finish at the beginning of the year.![]()
WR19 in PPG and WR20 in total points. That's just my main PPR leagues.
In the SP league you and I play in he is WR23 in total points. You should know, you drafted him.
Not sure where he landed in PPG in that league. I don't see a sort option for PPG.
My brother, we are putting the torment in the past! 58 years for me - and I’m letting it go!I'm in three leagues:
In league 1:
WR 22 overall
WR 27 PPG
In league 2:
WR 23 overall
WR 24 PPG
In league 3 (bonus for long TD's):
WR 17 overall
WR 17 PPG
@jon_mx , PM me your PayPal (or other payment info) and I'll send over your $100. Nice call this year!
Instead, can you order a Jamo jersey for a loved one and indoctrinate them into a lifetime of torment of being a Lions fan.
That would be awesomeMy brother, we are putting the torment in the past! 58 years for me - and I’m letting it go!I'm in three leagues:
In league 1:
WR 22 overall
WR 27 PPG
In league 2:
WR 23 overall
WR 24 PPG
In league 3 (bonus for long TD's):
WR 17 overall
WR 17 PPG
@jon_mx , PM me your PayPal (or other payment info) and I'll send over your $100. Nice call this year!
Instead, can you order a Jamo jersey for a loved one and indoctrinate them into a lifetime of torment of being a Lions fan.
How about I donate to @bigbottom’s charity- Chance for Hope?
Im not trolling at all, just showing that your projections were greatly overrated this year.If you don't remember, I was the closest to Jamo's real projections than anyone here.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
He has pretty much mixed up and lied or grossly exaggerated my position a dozen times over. Trolling.
I called 205, you called 280. He finished at 212.
I made numerous predictions, including his floor and his ceilings and expected productions. You keep cherry-picking and mistating/mischaractering what I predicted and said. I am really done with your trolling. Nobody cares. My point was always that the FF community was vastly underestimating Jamo which was 9/10 round WR50 plus. He was far far better than his consensus ADP. That is it. End of discussion.
Doesn't have to do with what the community had him at, that's not relevant to my point. I fully agree he was a steal at wr50... hence why I drafted him round 9 almost everywhere and owned him in 115+ leagues. As you know, I was as on board with him outperforming his adp as anyone here, just was realistic (and accurate) when I projected him at 205 ppr points this year.
/end
Lollll straight delusional.Im not trolling at all, just showing that your projections were greatly overrated this year.If you don't remember, I was the closest to Jamo's real projections than anyone here.Yet you used "WR2" in terms of Fantasy production.Detroit is one of three teams with two WR over 1,000 yards. Seems like Jamo is one of the best WR2 in the NFL.
Ends the year WR27 Points per game. Not one of the best fantasy WR2's at all.
WR17 in our bonus format (total points)
season long basis:
WR22 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR13 in standard
PPG basis (8 g minimum)
WR24 in full PPR
WR19 in half PPR
WR15 in standard
I’m starting to wonder if you’re arguing in good faith. It’s almost as if you just love trolling mixed up Jon & don’t even care if you’re making a cogent argument.
He has pretty much mixed up and lied or grossly exaggerated my position a dozen times over. Trolling.
I called 205, you called 280. He finished at 212.
I made numerous predictions, including his floor and his ceilings and expected productions. You keep cherry-picking and mistating/mischaractering what I predicted and said. I am really done with your trolling. Nobody cares. My point was always that the FF community was vastly underestimating Jamo which was 9/10 round WR50 plus. He was far far better than his consensus ADP. That is it. End of discussion.
Doesn't have to do with what the community had him at, that's not relevant to my point. I fully agree he was a steal at wr50... hence why I drafted him round 9 almost everywhere and owned him in 115+ leagues. As you know, I was as on board with him outperforming his adp as anyone here, just was realistic (and accurate) when I projected him at 205 ppr points this year.
/end
Briefcase you lie constantly about what I said. My per game numbers were dead on.
Done!That would be awesomeMy brother, we are putting the torment in the past! 58 years for me - and I’m letting it go!I'm in three leagues:
In league 1:
WR 22 overall
WR 27 PPG
In league 2:
WR 23 overall
WR 24 PPG
In league 3 (bonus for long TD's):
WR 17 overall
WR 17 PPG
@jon_mx , PM me your PayPal (or other payment info) and I'll send over your $100. Nice call this year!
Instead, can you order a Jamo jersey for a loved one and indoctrinate them into a lifetime of torment of being a Lions fan.
How about I donate to @bigbottom’s charity- Chance for Hope?
The Coachspeak Index
#Lions OC John Morton on Jameson Williams:
“He has been unbelievable. Unbelievable… I’m so excited to see him this year. It’s gonna be a breakout year for him. So, I can’t wait. I just can’t wait, man.”
If they can keep him away from his phone and keep him away from guns and, keep him away from the casinos in Windsor and, maybe keep him from doing childish, lewd penalty inducing TD celebrations and, keep him from being a knucklehead in general then it may actually happen.The Coachspeak Index
#Lions OC John Morton on Jameson Williams:
“He has been unbelievable. Unbelievable… I’m so excited to see him this year. It’s gonna be a breakout year for him. So, I can’t wait. I just can’t wait, man.”
So you're saying there's a chance!If they can keep him away from his phone and keep him away from guns and, keep him away from the casinos in Windsor and, maybe keep him from doing childish, lewd penalty inducing TD celebrations and, keep him from being a knucklehead in general then it may actually happen.The Coachspeak Index
#Lions OC John Morton on Jameson Williams:
“He has been unbelievable. Unbelievable… I’m so excited to see him this year. It’s gonna be a breakout year for him. So, I can’t wait. I just can’t wait, man.”
Here are the actual vs my predicted results.Good stuff. A couple comments that I think need brought up that could swing this a little, and I do mean a little, in the direction of my own personal bias because I think there is room for Jamo to do more than that floor and to have a slightly easier path to the ceiling you described.DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share
Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 3)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)
TARGETS
Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)
- ARSB 172 | 27.3%
- LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
- Jamo 102 | 16.2%
- Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
- All RBs 120 | 19.0%
- Fake P 2
That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.
That’s an NFL record for total yardage.
TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)
Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.
The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.
Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.
His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%
Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)
Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.
72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0
Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16
LEAGUE WINNER
Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.
Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)
90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0
That’s not helping anyone.
edit typo
Let's assume for a second that the Lions as a whole do just a bit less than a historic season, since that is setting this thing up to fail (IMHO respectfully your projection of a floor is much more unlikely than your projection of a ceiling and the entire construct has your bias in it - while I'm acknowledging this is good work and a great place to start). Let's be just a skosh more realistic with the ceiling and say it's lower. Even though I think it is *very* plausible I'd agree it isn't very probable. The floor is absurd to me though. He will be getting more than 5 rushes and that projection is not defendable. 90 targets is probably more than fair though but there is much more evidence to suggest his catch rate will in fact go up and that he will in fact take developmental steps this year than there is evidence to the contrary. So I'd have to call that 65 catches and ~930 yds (top of my head) maybe 1 more TD. But easily 30 more carries.
As for TDs. We know they're fluky. It could be double digits though even at a lower projected usage and he still hits the mark. And at the ceiling mark that you projected you only gave him 7 TDs plus 1 rushing. I mean that's probably a really good guess but the range of outcomes needs to be higher if its a historic type season. But even in my range where I'm saying the Lions have something a little less than that, there is a major factor in your projections that do not speak whatsoever to what Jameson might do if addressed:
What if he really eats into LaPorta's pie? Or gets his target share *somehow* up to 20% or more? In your projections you have LaPorta going from 120 targets last year to 133 this year. Now, again, that could very well end up true, but if we're testing the ranges of outcomes we *have* to look at these other player position breakdowns. And again I'd reiterate you did solid work, but there is room to see plausible pathways to fantasy success. So, let's look at same idea just slightly tweaked:
600 targets overall instead of 630, and with me bumping down LaPorta a little and taking just a small small bit from the RBs:
- ARSB 163| 27.3%
- LaPorta 110 | 18.0%
- Jamo 118 | 19.7%
- Other WRs 71 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 26 | 4.3%
- All RBs 112 | 18.7%
Why is the narrative of LaPorta getting an increased share not being debated here? I think it is not super likely myself. Especially with all the steady drumbeats re:Jamo
Ok so 118 targets with a 65% catch rate (less than the 69% you used above) gives 77 / 1155 / 10 because I think double digit TDs should be the mark if we're talking ceiling in a hot offense. Add 25/175/1 rushing and we have 270 PPR points. At the ceiling usage level if we say he only gets 6 overall TDs then that is still 240 PPR points. Like you said - league winner, but with less than a historic offense requirement (because that parameter isn't necessary)
My floor is going to be like this and lets say they have 570 targets to go around now:
65 / 975 / 5 & 20 / 140 / 1
- ARSB 156| 27.3%
- LaPorta 114 | 20.0%
- Jamo 100 | 17.5%
- Other WRs 68 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 25 | 4.3%
- All RBs 107 | 18.7%
212.5 PPR points ~WR2/3 type and still worth drafting. Particularly at current cost.
Here are the actual vs my predicted results.Good stuff. A couple comments that I think need brought up that could swing this a little, and I do mean a little, in the direction of my own personal bias because I think there is room for Jamo to do more than that floor and to have a slightly easier path to the ceiling you described.DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share
Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 3)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)
TARGETS
Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)
- ARSB 172 | 27.3%
- LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
- Jamo 102 | 16.2%
- Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
- All RBs 120 | 19.0%
- Fake P 2
That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.
That’s an NFL record for total yardage.
TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)
Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.
The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.
Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.
His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%
Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)
Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.
72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0
Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16
LEAGUE WINNER
Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.
Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)
90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0
That’s not helping anyone.
edit typo
Let's assume for a second that the Lions as a whole do just a bit less than a historic season, since that is setting this thing up to fail (IMHO respectfully your projection of a floor is much more unlikely than your projection of a ceiling and the entire construct has your bias in it - while I'm acknowledging this is good work and a great place to start). Let's be just a skosh more realistic with the ceiling and say it's lower. Even though I think it is *very* plausible I'd agree it isn't very probable. The floor is absurd to me though. He will be getting more than 5 rushes and that projection is not defendable. 90 targets is probably more than fair though but there is much more evidence to suggest his catch rate will in fact go up and that he will in fact take developmental steps this year than there is evidence to the contrary. So I'd have to call that 65 catches and ~930 yds (top of my head) maybe 1 more TD. But easily 30 more carries.
As for TDs. We know they're fluky. It could be double digits though even at a lower projected usage and he still hits the mark. And at the ceiling mark that you projected you only gave him 7 TDs plus 1 rushing. I mean that's probably a really good guess but the range of outcomes needs to be higher if its a historic type season. But even in my range where I'm saying the Lions have something a little less than that, there is a major factor in your projections that do not speak whatsoever to what Jameson might do if addressed:
What if he really eats into LaPorta's pie? Or gets his target share *somehow* up to 20% or more? In your projections you have LaPorta going from 120 targets last year to 133 this year. Now, again, that could very well end up true, but if we're testing the ranges of outcomes we *have* to look at these other player position breakdowns. And again I'd reiterate you did solid work, but there is room to see plausible pathways to fantasy success. So, let's look at same idea just slightly tweaked:
600 targets overall instead of 630, and with me bumping down LaPorta a little and taking just a small small bit from the RBs:
- ARSB 163| 27.3%
- LaPorta 110 | 18.0%
- Jamo 118 | 19.7%
- Other WRs 71 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 26 | 4.3%
- All RBs 112 | 18.7%
Why is the narrative of LaPorta getting an increased share not being debated here? I think it is not super likely myself. Especially with all the steady drumbeats re:Jamo
Ok so 118 targets with a 65% catch rate (less than the 69% you used above) gives 77 / 1155 / 10 because I think double digit TDs should be the mark if we're talking ceiling in a hot offense. Add 25/175/1 rushing and we have 270 PPR points. At the ceiling usage level if we say he only gets 6 overall TDs then that is still 240 PPR points. Like you said - league winner, but with less than a historic offense requirement (because that parameter isn't necessary)
My floor is going to be like this and lets say they have 570 targets to go around now:
65 / 975 / 5 & 20 / 140 / 1
- ARSB 156| 27.3%
- LaPorta 114 | 20.0%
- Jamo 100 | 17.5%
- Other WRs 68 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 25 | 4.3%
- All RBs 107 | 18.7%
212.5 PPR points ~WR2/3 type and still worth drafting. Particularly at current cost.
584 total targets. I estimated between 570 and 600.
Amon-Ra 156 v 141
LaPorta 83 v 114
Jameson 91 v 100
Other WRs 73 v 68
Other TEs 17 v 25
All RBs 110 v 107
Jameson 58 / 1001 / 7 vs 65 / 975 / 5 and in FFPC finished as WR23 vs my prediction of WR22.
- and had 11 carries for 61 yards and 1 TD vs 20 / 140 / 1
He had a 64% catch rate vs the 65% I used in my predictions.
He finished with 100.1 + 58 + 42 + 6.1 + 6 = 212.2 and I predicted 212.5 so yeah just gonna bang my chest a lil for those who said I was crazy for fading LaPorta and citing his likely lower target share as a main reason for Jamo to have this path. I said it repeatedly and few even acknowledged it.
He didn't need the Lions to have a historic season, I was right about that.
There was room for him to get to 100 targets without decimating Amon-Ra, I was right about that.
He hit my floor predictions, so the question of whether he can hit the ceiling projections I made is still open but if you look at those projections now, do they seem so nutty?
Not when you look at things from a target share perspective. If the offense as a whole does more/less/same as last year is one question yes. What I'm saying is that any positive growth statistically and on the field from Jamo is going to come from LaPorta. Regardless of whether Detroit Offense does more/less/same in aggregate. And I've said that a bunch. It may very well be that Jamo doesn't get to the level of being consistently startable in fantasy, but if all the reasons people are using against him hold true, they have to hold true against LaPorta as well (to a degree anyway). And I've shown above (granted it was pages ago now) how they can have a season far less than historic and if Jamo eats into LaPorta even just a little bit and gets into that upper teen% share and in a perfect world all the way up to 20%, it really wouldn't require a big dip by LaPorta.It's more a Goff issue@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.
I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:
Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.
TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta
*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?
I feel like anytime anyone says "it would have to have everything go right and they'd have to have a historic season" I'm like no they wouldn't not if other players get fewer targets. The entire narrative of Jamo making any noise whatsoever is that it would have to come at the expense of someone else in the pie. Whether that pie is bigger smaller or the same as last year let's be real and acknowledge this offense is going to run plays and they're going to score points. Anyway, I've more than said my piece. It has been like pulling teeth to get someone to defend LaPorta being ranked so high and Jamo so low. It's a gigantic disparity that has absolutely zero to do with Jared Goff.
Oh man he finished one spot ahead of D Smith, but I don't remember who I made the sidebet with!!Made a sidebet with a buddy that he outscores D Smith in FP/game with 12 games minimum for both. Why take a 2nd WR in the 4th round when you can get the same in the 9th/10th? Told him he had to give me odds, my 50 for his 80.
I'd like to reiterate that it won't take a super significant or surprising dip in targets to LaPorta and/or the RB corps from game to game, and yes I dare say Amon-Ra the Sun God himself, in order for Jameson to eat. Taking most of the Jeff Reynolds targets isn't the only piece in motion.
Only been one week but LaPorta is the one who gets the biggest chunk taken away IMO. He hit the ceiling last year and Amon-Ra plays at his ceiling already. It really is only natural to expect their numbers to dip (just a little skosh is all) because of what Jamo commands on the field. I also think too much credit is/was being given to the notion that the RBs were going to get more targets.
So yeah just a little mild week 1 victory lap and yes I did have him in some of my redraft lineups with (some) confidence. FWIW I did a lot of avoiding Amon-Ra and LaPorta. And no I don't feel so confident about week 2, especially since they really would be wise to get Amon-Ra and LaPorta more involved, but also because the NFL hasn't seen *much* of him, and especially not a newer version of him if he really had/has taken developmental steps. So moving forward yeah defenses might play quite different. But pick your poison with this offense. If they decide to take him out, Amon-Ra and LaPorta might start getting Cooper Kupp target numbers, so yeah very very curious to see how it looks moving forward now that he has at least flashed big time very early.
There are also at least a couple other flex plays out there that I feel dramatically less confident about this week than last, or put another way, I am *more* confident now that I shouldn't be starting them, and that Jamo is a really easy (and fun) alternative.
Jameson. And I literally addressed that the offense probably needs to get LaPorta more involved. Read that last paragraph again. The first two games have been tough matchups but Jamo has been getting open everywhere. Those results are impressive and worth repeating. And I would add that if they do get LaPorta more involved that it would likely mean some regression for Jamo. I predicted LaPorta was getting overdrafted and that Jamo would be valuable but admittedly I didn't really predict a breakout rather that he would be relevant. But again he has been getting open everywhere and this isn't the first time WRs develop and break out.Sorry, early results of what? Jameson? Or the offense? Because so far the offense looks average at best after being a juggernaut last year.Yep. I called it. I used to be an 'expert' of sorts in that I wrote about 40 articles a few years back and thought it was kind of a no-brainer. Not necessarily that he will remain startable and would have a full breakout, but that mathematically he was always *going* to be involved more and that LaPorta and others would suffer.The drumbeat all offseason was deafening. And we had seen his flashes. To expect the same target distribution as last year was always a terrible assumption. Agree it's too early for victory laps, but let's get real here. This 3rd year breakout, if it is indeed happening, should be surprising to absolutely nobody.
And that was my biggest beef, it should not have been a surprise. But not one expert called for it. Not one considered Jamo a viable WR2 or even a viable flex option. Everyone had him in the WR4/WR5/WR6 range.
The status quo mindset is the absolute worst fantasy football approach. NFL team turnover around 16 players each year on average. This league is always churning and 3rd year breakouts don't check more boxes than him. The fact he sat out many games due to injury and suspension never seemed to be factored into their analysis. Which isn't just flawed. It's really dumb.
Anyway I hope it continues. Not sure how he doesn't continue to get fed targets considering the early results. I *do* agree to an extent that they must get LaPorta more involved simply from a non-fantasy perspective but I think the first two weeks have been real tough games and some Lions victories are coming. Hard not to feature Jamo. And why not? To continue the status quo with LaPorta from 2023? That isn't how the NFL works.
Yes. And they will be just as accurate as well. /sHere are the actual vs my predicted results.Good stuff. A couple comments that I think need brought up that could swing this a little, and I do mean a little, in the direction of my own personal bias because I think there is room for Jamo to do more than that floor and to have a slightly easier path to the ceiling you described.DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share
Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 3)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)
TARGETS
Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)
- ARSB 172 | 27.3%
- LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
- Jamo 102 | 16.2%
- Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
- All RBs 120 | 19.0%
- Fake P 2
That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.
That’s an NFL record for total yardage.
TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)
Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.
The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.
Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.
His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%
Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)
Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.
72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0
Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16
LEAGUE WINNER
Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.
Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)
90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0
That’s not helping anyone.
edit typo
Let's assume for a second that the Lions as a whole do just a bit less than a historic season, since that is setting this thing up to fail (IMHO respectfully your projection of a floor is much more unlikely than your projection of a ceiling and the entire construct has your bias in it - while I'm acknowledging this is good work and a great place to start). Let's be just a skosh more realistic with the ceiling and say it's lower. Even though I think it is *very* plausible I'd agree it isn't very probable. The floor is absurd to me though. He will be getting more than 5 rushes and that projection is not defendable. 90 targets is probably more than fair though but there is much more evidence to suggest his catch rate will in fact go up and that he will in fact take developmental steps this year than there is evidence to the contrary. So I'd have to call that 65 catches and ~930 yds (top of my head) maybe 1 more TD. But easily 30 more carries.
As for TDs. We know they're fluky. It could be double digits though even at a lower projected usage and he still hits the mark. And at the ceiling mark that you projected you only gave him 7 TDs plus 1 rushing. I mean that's probably a really good guess but the range of outcomes needs to be higher if its a historic type season. But even in my range where I'm saying the Lions have something a little less than that, there is a major factor in your projections that do not speak whatsoever to what Jameson might do if addressed:
What if he really eats into LaPorta's pie? Or gets his target share *somehow* up to 20% or more? In your projections you have LaPorta going from 120 targets last year to 133 this year. Now, again, that could very well end up true, but if we're testing the ranges of outcomes we *have* to look at these other player position breakdowns. And again I'd reiterate you did solid work, but there is room to see plausible pathways to fantasy success. So, let's look at same idea just slightly tweaked:
600 targets overall instead of 630, and with me bumping down LaPorta a little and taking just a small small bit from the RBs:
- ARSB 163| 27.3%
- LaPorta 110 | 18.0%
- Jamo 118 | 19.7%
- Other WRs 71 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 26 | 4.3%
- All RBs 112 | 18.7%
Why is the narrative of LaPorta getting an increased share not being debated here? I think it is not super likely myself. Especially with all the steady drumbeats re:Jamo
Ok so 118 targets with a 65% catch rate (less than the 69% you used above) gives 77 / 1155 / 10 because I think double digit TDs should be the mark if we're talking ceiling in a hot offense. Add 25/175/1 rushing and we have 270 PPR points. At the ceiling usage level if we say he only gets 6 overall TDs then that is still 240 PPR points. Like you said - league winner, but with less than a historic offense requirement (because that parameter isn't necessary)
My floor is going to be like this and lets say they have 570 targets to go around now:
65 / 975 / 5 & 20 / 140 / 1
- ARSB 156| 27.3%
- LaPorta 114 | 20.0%
- Jamo 100 | 17.5%
- Other WRs 68 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 25 | 4.3%
- All RBs 107 | 18.7%
212.5 PPR points ~WR2/3 type and still worth drafting. Particularly at current cost.
584 total targets. I estimated between 570 and 600.
Amon-Ra 156 v 141
LaPorta 83 v 114
Jameson 91 v 100
Other WRs 73 v 68
Other TEs 17 v 25
All RBs 110 v 107
Jameson 58 / 1001 / 7 vs 65 / 975 / 5 and in FFPC finished as WR23 vs my prediction of WR22.
- and had 11 carries for 61 yards and 1 TD vs 20 / 140 / 1
He had a 64% catch rate vs the 65% I used in my predictions.
He finished with 100.1 + 58 + 42 + 6.1 + 6 = 212.2 and I predicted 212.5 so yeah just gonna bang my chest a lil for those who said I was crazy for fading LaPorta and citing his likely lower target share as a main reason for Jamo to have this path. I said it repeatedly and few even acknowledged it.
He didn't need the Lions to have a historic season, I was right about that.
There was room for him to get to 100 targets without decimating Amon-Ra, I was right about that.
He hit my floor predictions, so the question of whether he can hit the ceiling projections I made is still open but if you look at those projections now, do they seem so nutty?
Can you please post your 2025 projections for all players?![]()
Great call on Jameson vs LaPorta. This discussion didn’t get me confident enough to trade away LaPorta (though I wish I had) but it WAS enough to keep me from overpaying to get LaPorta in a different league. Well done.Here are the actual vs my predicted results.Good stuff. A couple comments that I think need brought up that could swing this a little, and I do mean a little, in the direction of my own personal bias because I think there is room for Jamo to do more than that floor and to have a slightly easier path to the ceiling you described.DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share
Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 3)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)
TARGETS
Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)
- ARSB 172 | 27.3%
- LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
- Jamo 102 | 16.2%
- Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
- All RBs 120 | 19.0%
- Fake P 2
That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.
That’s an NFL record for total yardage.
TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)
Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.
The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.
Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.
His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%
Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)
Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.
72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0
Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16
LEAGUE WINNER
Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.
Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)
90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0
That’s not helping anyone.
edit typo
Let's assume for a second that the Lions as a whole do just a bit less than a historic season, since that is setting this thing up to fail (IMHO respectfully your projection of a floor is much more unlikely than your projection of a ceiling and the entire construct has your bias in it - while I'm acknowledging this is good work and a great place to start). Let's be just a skosh more realistic with the ceiling and say it's lower. Even though I think it is *very* plausible I'd agree it isn't very probable. The floor is absurd to me though. He will be getting more than 5 rushes and that projection is not defendable. 90 targets is probably more than fair though but there is much more evidence to suggest his catch rate will in fact go up and that he will in fact take developmental steps this year than there is evidence to the contrary. So I'd have to call that 65 catches and ~930 yds (top of my head) maybe 1 more TD. But easily 30 more carries.
As for TDs. We know they're fluky. It could be double digits though even at a lower projected usage and he still hits the mark. And at the ceiling mark that you projected you only gave him 7 TDs plus 1 rushing. I mean that's probably a really good guess but the range of outcomes needs to be higher if its a historic type season. But even in my range where I'm saying the Lions have something a little less than that, there is a major factor in your projections that do not speak whatsoever to what Jameson might do if addressed:
What if he really eats into LaPorta's pie? Or gets his target share *somehow* up to 20% or more? In your projections you have LaPorta going from 120 targets last year to 133 this year. Now, again, that could very well end up true, but if we're testing the ranges of outcomes we *have* to look at these other player position breakdowns. And again I'd reiterate you did solid work, but there is room to see plausible pathways to fantasy success. So, let's look at same idea just slightly tweaked:
600 targets overall instead of 630, and with me bumping down LaPorta a little and taking just a small small bit from the RBs:
- ARSB 163| 27.3%
- LaPorta 110 | 18.0%
- Jamo 118 | 19.7%
- Other WRs 71 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 26 | 4.3%
- All RBs 112 | 18.7%
Why is the narrative of LaPorta getting an increased share not being debated here? I think it is not super likely myself. Especially with all the steady drumbeats re:Jamo
Ok so 118 targets with a 65% catch rate (less than the 69% you used above) gives 77 / 1155 / 10 because I think double digit TDs should be the mark if we're talking ceiling in a hot offense. Add 25/175/1 rushing and we have 270 PPR points. At the ceiling usage level if we say he only gets 6 overall TDs then that is still 240 PPR points. Like you said - league winner, but with less than a historic offense requirement (because that parameter isn't necessary)
My floor is going to be like this and lets say they have 570 targets to go around now:
65 / 975 / 5 & 20 / 140 / 1
- ARSB 156| 27.3%
- LaPorta 114 | 20.0%
- Jamo 100 | 17.5%
- Other WRs 68 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 25 | 4.3%
- All RBs 107 | 18.7%
212.5 PPR points ~WR2/3 type and still worth drafting. Particularly at current cost.
584 total targets. I estimated between 570 and 600.
Amon-Ra 156 v 141
LaPorta 83 v 114
Jameson 91 v 100
Other WRs 73 v 68
Other TEs 17 v 25
All RBs 110 v 107
Jameson 58 / 1001 / 7 vs 65 / 975 / 5 and in FFPC finished as WR23 vs my prediction of WR22.
- and had 11 carries for 61 yards and 1 TD vs 20 / 140 / 1
He had a 64% catch rate vs the 65% I used in my predictions.
He finished with 100.1 + 58 + 42 + 6.1 + 6 = 212.2 and I predicted 212.5 so yeah just gonna bang my chest a lil for those who said I was crazy for fading LaPorta and citing his likely lower target share as a main reason for Jamo to have this path. I said it repeatedly and few even acknowledged it.
He didn't need the Lions to have a historic season, I was right about that.
There was room for him to get to 100 targets without decimating Amon-Ra, I was right about that.
He hit my floor predictions, so the question of whether he can hit the ceiling projections I made is still open but if you look at those projections now, do they seem so nutty?