yeah he wont make it to 20 probably. doubt KC would do it, but you never know.
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WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Bracie Smathers
- Start date
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I see basically zero chance he's a Chief
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Not sure why anyone would think he would be.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah hard to see him falling that far
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Waldman's A-Z solo WR class has interesting tidbits on all the WR in this class but I thought the JSN description was interesting. "Safest WR in this class." and mentioned (among other things) a comp of Edelman who IIRC had a sick 3 cone as well. It's an interesting comp IMO. By the numbers:
Edelman vs JSN
5'-10 3/8 vs 6'-1"
195 vs 196
40 yard- pro day 4.52 - vs 4.48-4.52
Vertical 36.5 vs 35
Broad Jump 10'-3" vs 10'-5"
3 Cone 6.62 vs 6.57
20 Yard shuttle 3.92 vs 3.93
If he can shake coverage like #11, he'll be fine. Seems like that's where the athletic numbers are pointing. A guy that's always open, makes tough catches, reads the field and leverage like the QB does, knows how to gain yards and position himself after the catch. Just won't be burning dudes for 60 yards like the Hill/Waddle/Chase types. He's not a home run hitter, he's a guy that could lead the league in batting average. I can understand the reluctance to draft him with pick 2-4 if his ceiling is "only" a back end WR 1. Sitting 1.01 and 1.02 the JSN vs Gibbs vs selling the pick is going to be interesting.
Edelman vs JSN
5'-10 3/8 vs 6'-1"
195 vs 196
40 yard- pro day 4.52 - vs 4.48-4.52
Vertical 36.5 vs 35
Broad Jump 10'-3" vs 10'-5"
3 Cone 6.62 vs 6.57
20 Yard shuttle 3.92 vs 3.93
If he can shake coverage like #11, he'll be fine. Seems like that's where the athletic numbers are pointing. A guy that's always open, makes tough catches, reads the field and leverage like the QB does, knows how to gain yards and position himself after the catch. Just won't be burning dudes for 60 yards like the Hill/Waddle/Chase types. He's not a home run hitter, he's a guy that could lead the league in batting average. I can understand the reluctance to draft him with pick 2-4 if his ceiling is "only" a back end WR 1. Sitting 1.01 and 1.02 the JSN vs Gibbs vs selling the pick is going to be interesting.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m impressed.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Boo this man. Booooooooo!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Never mind the numbers. It’s been his hallmark his entire college career. You can go see it on virtually every clip of him on YouTube.
Safe to remove the “if” - he absolutely can shake defenders.
I’ve seen the Edelman comparisons before and they’re spot on, only JSN is 3” taller. It’s a good comp, and if he can go to a team that peppers him with targets like that he’s gonna be a fine asset in FF.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Maybe because their receiving corps has been decimated and Skyy Moore is a better ST player than he is a WR?
Seems like of all the teams that need a WR, KC is absolutely one of those teams. And since they don’t need a ton else, it is conceivable that they could trade up to take one.
And if they do, JSN is one of maybe 3 guys I could see them doing it for.
All outside chance, but to suggest it’s unthinkable seems shortsighted to me.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
My point wasn’t whether KC would take JSN, but that the Chiefs won’t sniff JSN in the draft.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Without a trade-up, you mean?
Deamon
Footballguy
Ya, I don't see them trading up THAT high, that would cost them a TON.
rockaction
Footballguy
By the way, the combine and timing isn't the be-all end-all of everything. Some guys don't test well and are fine players. It's just that Cynthia Frelund did some great work on guys that run below a 4.55 (the link is lost to posterity) and she found that the prognosis for guys that run under a 4.55 in timing is not good. For every Kupp there's twenty to thirty guys who didn't. For every Smith-Njigba (and who anointed him already, anyway?) there's twenty or thirty guys that are mediocre.
Can he have a great pro career? Sure, he could. It's just that the odds are against it to a degree.
Can he have a great pro career? Sure, he could. It's just that the odds are against it to a degree.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Is her 4.55 number based on pro days that have been adjusted? Or just on 4.55 as is numbers?
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't recall. I think, if I had to guess, she'd be using combine numbers or pro day as reported. That's my guess. But I don't know that for sure, and the article and data are sort of lost to the internet.
rockaction
Footballguy
And again, I'm talking strictly for his use as an outside receiver, not as a slot guy. They use different measurements for those guys, as we've already gone over in this very thread, I believe.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
You said run under 4.55 in your post but I assume you meant run over 4.55. In that case, if we aren’t adjusting pro day times, JSN is good timewise.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
As he’s projected to be a slot receiver in the NFL, I’m struggling to figure out why you keep bashing him based on metrics that you literally just said don’t apply.
rockaction
Footballguy
Because I'm bashing picking slot receivers with the 1.2-1.4 in general. That would be why.
I'm planting my flag and saying that it's bad business to do business that way. Will it be with this guy? Maybe or maybe not, but I sure wouldn't take the chance on it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I’ll probably take him over Gibbs
rockaction
Footballguy
Any individual player can wind up being very valuable fantasy-wise, hence the hedge. Let's see how much Smith-Njigba gets paid on his second contract in the pros if he struggles on the outside. That's how you'll know. Because if he's a slot guy, he won't see a bigger portion of the cap in his pay than a Jakobi Meyers did.
You're searching for outliers here when what you should be drafting is sure things. Problem is, this guy's about as sure as you get with this draft, which is why I began to hate this class last year as soon as I found out his estimated time on film. You can find me back then fading them and him because of it. Now, he mind wind up like Amon-Ra St. Brown and just be peachy (Brown ran a 4.6 on his pro day, IIRC), but the likelihood is slim that he performs on the outside and gets a huge second contract.
Unless the entire paradigm of a receiver is changing, which is also possible.
That's why there aren't many flags to plant. The soil beneath isn't that solid. It's tectonic.
rockaction
Footballguy
Who has massive question marks of his own. I'd trade out of those spots and get really good players, if you ask me.
Trade your 1.2 and then a little bit for Higgins or see if the owner bites at the 1.2. That's what I would do.
I know it's not always that easy (my league is like pulling teeth and you're always losing deals), but it's at least worth a shot.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I’d rather have JSN over Higgins
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Same.
Happy with either JSN or Gibbs. Perfectly fine sitting at the 1.03 and taking whichever one is left.
rockaction
Footballguy
Really? Well, bombs away then.
rockaction
Footballguy
Rookie fever has officially arrived!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
There’s no such thing as a sure thing.
And you don’t actually know if he can’t play on the outside. You’re speculating that based on something someone said about a 40-time.
A time he beat, FWIW.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Same
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I have Higgins in both of my leagues - I would not take JSN over Higgins.
rockaction
Footballguy
Prototype WRs for Frelund fall in the 4.51 or below category, where the combine is the standard measurement. By early and later accounts, he did not run that even at his pro day.
And before we get into the "pro day is just fine" thing, he could have solved any doubts by running at the combine, but he chose not to.
Whatever. I'm not doing what I did in the CEH thread, which is to get a lot of people personally upset about a slow, undersized prospect that wowed people on film and that they desperately wanted to draft with their high pick. I've already said it. No need to beat it to death.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He also did a lot of things a lot better than most WR at the combine, like putting on a clinic in the shuttle drill.
You’re sounding like Al Davis here with this 40-time obsession.
He had a hamstring injury and reportedly it prevented him from training for the 40 in time for the combine. Saying he chose not to seems slightly inaccurate.
I was with you on CEH - it’s what led me to deal him for the pick that turned out to be 1.01
But JSN is not “slow”. He’s just not blazing fast. There is a difference. He’s also not undersized. At 6’1, 200+ he’s actually one of the bigger receivers in this class.
Again, just for the sake of accuracy.
And at the time, a lot of scouts/experts were down on CEH other than his landing spot. The opposite seems to be the case with JSN, in that scouts & FF experts believe he’s the best WR in the draft.
You’re on a bit of an island with your JSN take. I concede that you may literally be the only person who’s correct, including NFL scouts & team personnel. Seems less than likely, but ok.
massraider
Footballguy
And the big thing is: you drafted Amon Ra at a discount. No one was pounding the table for Amon Ra at 1.3.
Think I took St. Brown 2.10 in an IDP league.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yep. I was going to point that out, but I don't want to beat a dead horse or plant a flag against Smith-Njigba. I'm just not so sure his profile is a 1.2 pick. Actually, I know it's not, it's just that he might wind up excelling anyway and then where am I with that flag, huh?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Actually, you don’t. No one does. Yet.
You could end up right. Or not. But you’ll have half bragging rights if it’s the former.
rockaction
Footballguy
Know it's the profile or the actual player? I certainly know it's not the profile of a 1.2. That I'm sure about. If you want to bet every time on a guy with that profile going as the 1.2, then you can do so. I'll make other use with draft capital like that. Even massraider, who probably is ambivalent on him, knows the discount inherent of being able to draft him in the back of the second round is part of the thing about a guy like this. You get no such discount this year.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The actual player.
The profile is a fun narrative. Not sure I agree with all of it.
I’m interested to see what Waldman says about JSN in the April 1st release. I’ve seen quite a few folks like that who seem to really like JSN.
I guess we’ll find out.
I think we are getting a little too lost in the weeds about 40 times here. I certainly did not expect JSN to go out there and run a 4.4. But he knows how to get open, and I’d much rather have a guy that can do that as opposed to running fast in a straight line.
Off the top of my head, Hopkins, Adams, Kupp, Amon Ra, Michael Thomas, Tee, and Antonio Brown were all 4.55 or worse. Hell, Keenan ran a 4.76.
A more explosive Keenan Allen sounds pretty good to me.
Off the top of my head, Hopkins, Adams, Kupp, Amon Ra, Michael Thomas, Tee, and Antonio Brown were all 4.55 or worse. Hell, Keenan ran a 4.76.
A more explosive Keenan Allen sounds pretty good to me.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I like prospects who had an early breakout age with elite production against NFL competition, have big program experience, have elite athletic traits that match their style, don't have any major flaws in their profile, run routes well, get early first round draft capital, catch the ball well but don't win on contested catches, destroy zone coverage but are also nearly uncoverable in man. I don't even want to draft a receiver in this class because I like the running backs too much but he's the only wr I want
bostonfred
Footballguy
She digs up some great stats sometimes but this isn't one of them. 40 time isn't a great predictor of NFL success for receivers.
It may be true that a small percentage of guys who run slow are successful but it's also true that a small percentage of guys who run fast are successful. And the track record of guys in the middle isn't that great either.
rockaction
Footballguy
No, it isn't. But it's a good tool for weeding out guys. For the most part. But exceptions are there, and noted.
One tool in the toolbox.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
As an ARSB shareholder, I recognize it as well.
In fact, people were doubting ARSB all the way into 2022 drafts. In redraft he was going around 5-6-7 IIRC. I was able to get ARSB in June-July as a toss-in to a package for the ‘23 1.02 (that’s what it ended up being) for Carr & other pieces.
But then he balled out again in 2022. And he’s a great comp for JSN, except JSN is faster (seemingly your chief concern).
So here’s the thing…all that’s saying is that people were wrong about ARSB. He is a stud WR. Now he’s thought of as top 7 dynasty WR.
So the question isn’t whether we’ll get a discount on JSN similar to ARSB, The question is “where would you draft ARSB this year knowing that he’s a top 7 dynasty WR?” And if JSN is a top 10 dynasty WR comparable to ARSB (though again, faster) why wouldn’t you draft him with a 1.02 or 1.03 pick?
Clearly we know his build/speed/agility can get the job done to be that. He had a 95/1600/9 season in college.
I guess I don’t see whiffing on ARSB as a good reason to whiff on JSN.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, Smith-Njigba posts elite ten-yard splits and three cone agility. Who knows? He may be everything he's cracked up to be, especially for fantasy.
I'll leave it at that.
I'll leave it at that.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Funny - went over to rotoworld & JSN being the WR1 is their headline story.
They sound convinced.
They sound convinced.
I've gotten higher on JSN throughout the process (has probably helped that I've also been underwhelmed by Addison) and am seeing that higher upside. After really deep diving on him, I'm a little surprised by some of the comps, because with his times being so much better than expected, I think he's out of the slot bubble so to speak. I've been sorta toying with a CeeDee Lamb comparison. JSN isn't as good after the catch, and is a little shorter, but they both have that same easy separation, without elite speed.
Having said that, I still think Quentin Johnston is a better prospect. Just offers more upside in my eyes, as a sort of Demaryius Thomas type. Personally, I don't think either guy should make it past the Texans at #12. It'd be a huge luxury pick, but I really like the idea of Philly taking JSN at #10, a lot more than the idea of a Bijan luxury pick anyway. Johnston I like to Atlanta, as a dangerous YAC threat, to go with London's possession skills, and Pitts vertical skills.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Could make an analogy like JSN is to Stroud what QJ is to ARich.
QJ is the bigger, taller, faster, prototypical X WR. But he’s more raw than JSN.
I’m hoping picks 5-6-7 goes Gibbs, ARich, Levis in my SF rebuild league. I could end up with both JSN & QJ. Or JSN & Addison.
IMO JSN JSN is the 1.04 though. Philly would be an interesting landing spot, I agree. Not sure I agree it would be better than Bijan. I think they go DB at 10 so it’s all moot.
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