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WR Jayden Reed, GB (1 Viewer)

The team needs to recognize that Watson is not a WR1. He profiles as Martavis Bryant, but worse at just about everything than Bryant was his first few years. Despite Love's obvious deficiencies, Watson is currently DEAD LAST in EPA when targeted in contested catch situations. That's not all on the QB. And it's supposed to be a strength of Watson's game. He's also not a great route runner, doesn't get separation, and is average at best against man coverage. The offense as a whole looked better the first 3 weeks when he wasn't available, partly because they played some crap teams sure, but also because they were obviously scheming play calling around Reed and Doubs. They need to go back to that, as at least Reed has the potential to actually be a WR1. Honestly I'd be looking to get Wicks more involved as well. They've all looked more dynamic than Watson.
 
Looking for possible WR4 depth. Who would you add in a full PPR 12 man league here?

Cooks
Doubs
Reed
Click to expand...
Jayden
Click to expand...
Thanks!

Doubs outsnapping him and having 60 to Reeds 45 targets aren’t a concern?
Click to expand...
see the data I posted in his player thread
Click to expand...

Cross posting fm the weekly WW thread

@1320kid

I would evaluate it as follows (and before doing so would add I've watched enough All 22 film of the Packers I feel pretty confident I have this right)

We need to think about this terms of game flow. Now we cannot anticipate game script; that's a fool's errand. What I'm about to go into is descriptive not prescriptive.
  • GB likes both it's rookie TEs. Tucker Kraft may one day be fantasy relevant but not this year; however, he is an excellent blocker in 12 formations, both in the run game and to stay in to help out with pass pro. He gets some scraps occasionally but that's not his role, even though he was VERY productive at South Dakota State (which is basically the D-II equivalent to Iowa,)
  • Like most teams GB will run a subset of platforms off primarily 11 and 12 personnel. In the latter we have 1 RB 1 TE and 3 WR; league wide the average is around 65%. That grouping is why so many defenses run some variant of a nickel package as their true base defense. Conversely, in 12 formation there is 1 RB 1 TE and 2 WR.
  • GB runs a little less 12 personnel than league average. That's partly bc they have been trailing a lot. Musgrave lines up a lot in the Slot and some out wide, functionally he's like a Big X WR. Even when they are in 12 personnel, they still kind of have 3 WR on the field if we include the rookie from Oregon State.
  • Among the players with WR position designation, Jayden Reed functions primarily as the Slot WR. On days when they run less 11 personnel, he's the odd man out. That means he is dependent on making the most of fewer opportunities in order to be productive. So far he has been doing that for the most part, BUT caveat emptor - there will be games where he is running way less routes. Most FF managers will look at targets and say "eh....rookie WR, they're inconsistent, can't trust Reed." I think that's bad process but most folks are looking for shortcuts so the hobby doesn't become too much of a time suck. I get it.
  • The GB WR room is mostly thought of as Watson as the alpha - he's been anything but that YTD due to a series of injuries - and then Doubs, with Wicks getting a few boundary snaps.

    (NOTE: I'm using boundary as a synonym for outside WR. Don't get it twisted....in some systems we refer to field WR and boundary WR, and that has to do with which side is closer to the hash mark the ball is on....not what I'm talking about, sorry if anyone finds that confusing.)

  • Snap Counts are not enough. They're a rough estimate, but we want to measure twice and cut once. Snap Counts don't ever breakdown how many were run snaps and how many were passing snaps. That info is out there but it's behind paywalls, most FF folks won't be able to crack that code. Information is powerful and bad information is just as powerful as good info. Admittedly the effect of that run snap count/pass snap count does tend to smooth out over time but it's much more variable game-to-game.
Now that everyone is thoroughly lost, asleep or has moved on to another thread, let's expand the Steelers game dataset to season long.

Packers Routes Run
  1. Doubs 280
  2. Musgrave 237
  3. Reed 222
  4. Watson 177
  5. Wicks 157
  6. Dillon 148
  7. Jones 95
  8. Kraft 67
  9. Toure 61
  10. Deguara 59
Yards per RR
  1. Reed 1.88
  2. Jones 1.76
  3. Sims 1.56
  4. Wicks 1.52
  5. Watson 1.33
  6. Musgrave 1.32
  7. Doubs 1.23
  8. Wilson 1.17
  9. Deguara 1.10
  10. Toure 1.02
  11. Dillon 0.77
  12. Taylor 0.58
  13. Kraft 0.16

Targets
  1. Doubs 56
  2. Reed 43
  3. Musgrave 39
  4. Watson 33
  5. Wicks 27
  6. Jones 25
  7. Dillon 16
  8. Toure 11
  9. Taylor 10
  10. Deguara 8
  11. Heath 5
  12. Kraft 4
  13. Wilson 3
  14. Sims 2
Target Market Share
  1. Doubs 19.86%
  2. Reed 15.25%
  3. Musgrave 13.83%
  4. Watson 11.70%
  5. Wicks 9.57%
  6. Jones 8.87
  7. Dillon 5.67%
  8. Toure 3.90%
  9. Taylor 3.55%
  10. Deguara 2.84%
  11. Heath 1.77%
  12. Kraft 1.42%
  13. Wilson 1.06%
  14. Sims 0.71%
% of RR receiving Targets
  1. Jones 26.32 (25 targets / 95 routes run)
  2. Wilson 25.00% (calm down, it's 3 targets on 12 routes)
  3. Sims 22.22% (2 targets on 9 routes)
  4. Heath 20.83% (5 T / 24 RR)
  5. Doubs 20.00%
  6. Reed 19.37%
  7. Taylor 18.18% (10/55)
  8. Toure 18.03%
  9. Watson 18.64%
  10. Wicks 17.20%
  11. Musgrave 16.46%
  12. Deguara 13.56%
  13. Dillon 10.81%
  14. Kraft 5.97%

Alignment (top 5 for each)
  • Slot Reed 190, Musgrave 111, Watson 62, Wicks 49, Doubs 43, Deguara 36, Toure 24, Kraft 12
  • Wide Doubs 256, Watson 122, Wicks 115, Reed 47, Toure 37, Musgrave 24, Heath 20, Dillon 11, Jones 11
  • Inline Musgrave 137, Kraft 64, Deguara 20, Sims 14, Taylor 8, Dillon 8, Jones 7, Watson 5
Great info, very much appreciate you posting this.
 
The team needs to recognize that Watson is not a WR1. He profiles as Martavis Bryant, but worse at just about everything than Bryant was his first few years. Despite Love's obvious deficiencies, Watson is currently DEAD LAST in EPA when targeted in contested catch situations. That's not all on the QB. And it's supposed to be a strength of Watson's game. He's also not a great route runner, doesn't get separation, and is average at best against man coverage. The offense as a whole looked better the first 3 weeks when he wasn't available, partly because they played some crap teams sure, but also because they were obviously scheming play calling around Reed and Doubs. They need to go back to that, as at least Reed has the potential to actually be a WR1. Honestly I'd be looking to get Wicks more involved as well. They've all looked more dynamic than Watson.
To be fair to Watson, he's never been even close to 100% this season, starting with his hamstring injury before week 1.
 
The team needs to recognize that Watson is not a WR1. He profiles as Martavis Bryant, but worse at just about everything than Bryant was his first few years. Despite Love's obvious deficiencies, Watson is currently DEAD LAST in EPA when targeted in contested catch situations. That's not all on the QB. And it's supposed to be a strength of Watson's game. He's also not a great route runner, doesn't get separation, and is average at best against man coverage. The offense as a whole looked better the first 3 weeks when he wasn't available, partly because they played some crap teams sure, but also because they were obviously scheming play calling around Reed and Doubs. They need to go back to that, as at least Reed has the potential to actually be a WR1. Honestly I'd be looking to get Wicks more involved as well. They've all looked more dynamic than Watson.
To be fair to Watson, he's never been even close to 100% this season, starting with his hamstring injury before week 1.
Yeah agree, and I don't want the take away from my post to be that he stinks, I don't think that at all. He's just not a WR1 IMO, which isn't surprising, there aren't a lot of them to be had in the entirety of the league. But the team trying to fit that square peg in a round hole is not only making Watson look worse, but making the entire offense look worse. Featuring a more dynamic receiver with a broader skill set could likely open up Watson's game so he isn't getting pressed by man coverage as much. Maybe Reed/Wicks aren't ready for that role yet either, but they fit it better to at least force defenses into making some tougher decisions with pressure packages and coverages. Even if people think Watson COULD eventually be that guy, it's obviously not working right now so I think they need to try something different.
 
Reed first 5 weeks
  • WR57
  • WR16
  • WR46
  • WR36
  • WR98
Reed last 5 weeks (avg 25.4)
  • WR24
  • WR36
  • WR46
  • WR10
  • WR11


for comparison, the other GB WRs since the bye week

Doubs (avg 31.8)
  • WR23
  • WR38
  • WR51
  • WR30
  • WR17
Wicks (avg 49.4)
  • WR67
  • WR82
  • WR51
  • WR30
  • WR17
Watson (avg 57.8)
  • WR60
  • WR72
  • WR60
  • WR66
  • WR31
plus the TE who has been Inline 154 routes v 151 routes in the Slot or Wide

Musgrave (avg 18.8)
  • TE18
  • TE38
  • TE7
  • TE11
  • TE20
 
Should be a good play on thanksgiving in Detroit.

maybe. but he'll be facing Brian Branch who as the starting Slot Corner has been Detroit's best cover man.

I actually like Wicks v the Lions Thursday. He's been coming up with some big plays the last couple weeks.
 
FTR I used Reed to cover the Waddle and Olave bye weeks the last two games. Pretty good. Pretty pretty pretty good.

I'm toying with the idea of sitting Waddle v the Jets (Black Friday game, Jets surrender the fewest FF points to WR in full PPR) in favor of the MSU rookie playing in front of family & friends.
 
Should be a good play on thanksgiving in Detroit.

maybe. but he'll be facing Brian Branch who as the starting Slot Corner has been Detroit's best cover man.

I actually like Wicks v the Lions Thursday. He's been coming up with some big plays the last couple weeks.
I’m hoping game script favors some usage. Being a ex-MSU Spartan hopefully will win me a prop or two with him.

Ex? It's like the marines, once a Sparty always a Sparty.

I am kidding #chipforlife

He's a midwest kid (Naperville), probably have 40-50 tickets to hand out this week. For anyone looking for a narrative to see themselves this week.

Statistically Love has been better the last few games. Then you turn on the tape and see he's still missing easy throws by 2 yards, his receivers are becoming really adept at making adjustments.
 
I'm hoping they finally realized Reed is a playmaker in their offense and start feeding him the ball. Not expecting that but hoping.
 
I'm hoping they finally realized Reed is a playmaker in their offense and start feeding him the ball. Not expecting that but hoping.
Reed is their Deebo
Dobbs is their possession guy
Watson their big play threat

Not a bad trifecta of young WRs. Don't think there's an alpha but all 3 bring something to the table.
 
Looking for possible WR4 depth. Who would you add in a full PPR 12 man league here?

Cooks
Doubs
Reed
Click to expand...
Jayden
Click to expand...
Thanks!

Doubs outsnapping him and having 60 to Reeds 45 targets aren’t a concern?
Click to expand...
see the data I posted in his player thread
Click to expand...

Cross posting fm the weekly WW thread

@1320kid

I would evaluate it as follows (and before doing so would add I've watched enough All 22 film of the Packers I feel pretty confident I have this right)

We need to think about this terms of game flow. Now we cannot anticipate game script; that's a fool's errand. What I'm about to go into is descriptive not prescriptive.
  • GB likes both it's rookie TEs. Tucker Kraft may one day be fantasy relevant but not this year; however, he is an excellent blocker in 12 formations, both in the run game and to stay in to help out with pass pro. He gets some scraps occasionally but that's not his role, even though he was VERY productive at South Dakota State (which is basically the D-II equivalent to Iowa,)
  • Like most teams GB will run a subset of platforms off primarily 11 and 12 personnel. In the latter we have 1 RB 1 TE and 3 WR; league wide the average is around 65%. That grouping is why so many defenses run some variant of a nickel package as their true base defense. Conversely, in 12 formation there is 1 RB 1 TE and 2 WR.
  • GB runs a little less 12 personnel than league average. That's partly bc they have been trailing a lot. Musgrave lines up a lot in the Slot and some out wide, functionally he's like a Big X WR. Even when they are in 12 personnel, they still kind of have 3 WR on the field if we include the rookie from Oregon State.
  • Among the players with WR position designation, Jayden Reed functions primarily as the Slot WR. On days when they run less 11 personnel, he's the odd man out. That means he is dependent on making the most of fewer opportunities in order to be productive. So far he has been doing that for the most part, BUT caveat emptor - there will be games where he is running way less routes. Most FF managers will look at targets and say "eh....rookie WR, they're inconsistent, can't trust Reed." I think that's bad process but most folks are looking for shortcuts so the hobby doesn't become too much of a time suck. I get it.
  • The GB WR room is mostly thought of as Watson as the alpha - he's been anything but that YTD due to a series of injuries - and then Doubs, with Wicks getting a few boundary snaps.

    (NOTE: I'm using boundary as a synonym for outside WR. Don't get it twisted....in some systems we refer to field WR and boundary WR, and that has to do with which side is closer to the hash mark the ball is on....not what I'm talking about, sorry if anyone finds that confusing.)

  • Snap Counts are not enough. They're a rough estimate, but we want to measure twice and cut once. Snap Counts don't ever breakdown how many were run snaps and how many were passing snaps. That info is out there but it's behind paywalls, most FF folks won't be able to crack that code. Information is powerful and bad information is just as powerful as good info. Admittedly the effect of that run snap count/pass snap count does tend to smooth out over time but it's much more variable game-to-game.
Now that everyone is thoroughly lost, asleep or has moved on to another thread, let's expand the Steelers game dataset to season long.

Packers Routes Run
  1. Doubs 280
  2. Musgrave 237
  3. Reed 222
  4. Watson 177
  5. Wicks 157
  6. Dillon 148
  7. Jones 95
  8. Kraft 67
  9. Toure 61
  10. Deguara 59
Yards per RR
  1. Reed 1.88
  2. Jones 1.76
  3. Sims 1.56
  4. Wicks 1.52
  5. Watson 1.33
  6. Musgrave 1.32
  7. Doubs 1.23
  8. Wilson 1.17
  9. Deguara 1.10
  10. Toure 1.02
  11. Dillon 0.77
  12. Taylor 0.58
  13. Kraft 0.16

Targets
  1. Doubs 56
  2. Reed 43
  3. Musgrave 39
  4. Watson 33
  5. Wicks 27
  6. Jones 25
  7. Dillon 16
  8. Toure 11
  9. Taylor 10
  10. Deguara 8
  11. Heath 5
  12. Kraft 4
  13. Wilson 3
  14. Sims 2
Target Market Share
  1. Doubs 19.86%
  2. Reed 15.25%
  3. Musgrave 13.83%
  4. Watson 11.70%
  5. Wicks 9.57%
  6. Jones 8.87
  7. Dillon 5.67%
  8. Toure 3.90%
  9. Taylor 3.55%
  10. Deguara 2.84%
  11. Heath 1.77%
  12. Kraft 1.42%
  13. Wilson 1.06%
  14. Sims 0.71%
% of RR receiving Targets
  1. Jones 26.32 (25 targets / 95 routes run)
  2. Wilson 25.00% (calm down, it's 3 targets on 12 routes)
  3. Sims 22.22% (2 targets on 9 routes)
  4. Heath 20.83% (5 T / 24 RR)
  5. Doubs 20.00%
  6. Reed 19.37%
  7. Taylor 18.18% (10/55)
  8. Toure 18.03%
  9. Watson 18.64%
  10. Wicks 17.20%
  11. Musgrave 16.46%
  12. Deguara 13.56%
  13. Dillon 10.81%
  14. Kraft 5.97%

Alignment (top 5 for each)
  • Slot Reed 190, Musgrave 111, Watson 62, Wicks 49, Doubs 43, Deguara 36, Toure 24, Kraft 12
  • Wide Doubs 256, Watson 122, Wicks 115, Reed 47, Toure 37, Musgrave 24, Heath 20, Dillon 11, Jones 11
  • Inline Musgrave 137, Kraft 64, Deguara 20, Sims 14, Taylor 8, Dillon 8, Jones 7, Watson 5
This is terrific BL.

I wonder if you have access to this data for the Jaguars and more specifically Calvin Ridley that you could share?

If that's not too much trouble for you.

It might reveal a lot.
 
I wonder if you have access to this data for the Jaguars and more specifically Calvin Ridley that you could share?

If that's not too much trouble for you.

It might reveal a lot.

Is this related to @Chaka saying Ridley’s usage varies when Zay Jones doesn’t play? Saw that while eating lunch. Don’t have a fig in the fight dog in the fight but I’m curious.

love autocorrect

Besides alignment I also have game by game & season long target depth analysis. Basically every WR, every route L-middle-R, broken into four depth categories (20+, 10-19, 0-9, begins LOS.)

Hectic week getting ready to host Thanksgiving but if I get to it will post it in Ridley’s player thread.
 
Matt LaFleur said to the media today that Reed is “a dog. A war daddy”. Funny quote but sure sounds the HC likes him.
 
I wonder if you have access to this data for the Jaguars and more specifically Calvin Ridley that you could share?

If that's not too much trouble for you.

It might reveal a lot.

Is this related to @Chaka saying Ridley’s usage varies when Zay Jones doesn’t play? Saw that while eating lunch. Don’t have a fig in the fight dog in the fight but I’m curious.

love autocorrect

Besides alignment I also have game by game & season long target depth analysis. Basically every WR, every route L-middle-R, broken into four depth categories (20+, 10-19, 0-9, begins LOS.)

Hectic week getting ready to host Thanksgiving but if I get to it will post it in Ridley’s player thread.
If you are interested and can find the time that would be great.

If you can't I understand busy time of the year.
 
That Packers injury report looks like a CVS receipt.
Yea. How much of that is legit and how much is just short week gamesmanship?

I think a mix of both for sure. Clearly the RBs are dinged up (guessing Dillon is more maintenance with the lack of depth), Jaire is still nursing his, Savage just activated from IR. So alot of it is expected stuff with that short week.
 
No Jones, no Musgrave, questionable Dillon and Wicks. I like the setup for Reed to have a productive game. Packers will probably need to pass a lot, and maybe use Reed as a runner/screener more. 🤞
 
Solid game. Had a bad drop on the close out drive for GB. Otherwise could have had another 3-4 points in PPR.
 
I‘m having problems starting him over Lamb/Olave/Kirk in dynasty. Nice problem to have, I guess, but hoping he can take over my WR3 slot long term.
 
I‘m having problems starting him over Lamb/Olave/Kirk in dynasty. Nice problem to have, I guess, but hoping he can take over my WR3 slot long term.

I started him today & haven’t decided who to bench (Chase-Waddle-Olave + Hall in the Flex)

just looked like a smash play I’ll figure it out in the a.m.

I’ve started him 3 weeks in a row (Waddle then Olave bye weeks before today)
 
I‘m having problems starting him over Lamb/Olave/Kirk in dynasty. Nice problem to have, I guess, but hoping he can take over my WR3 slot long term.

I started him today & haven’t decided who to bench (Chase-Waddle-Olave + Hall in the Flex)

just looked like a smash play I’ll figure it out in the a.m.

I’ve started him 3 weeks in a row (Waddle then Olave bye weeks before today)
Waddle and Olave have been so frustrating this year. Never feel comfortable starting either.
 
I‘m having problems starting him over Lamb/Olave/Kirk in dynasty. Nice problem to have, I guess, but hoping he can take over my WR3 slot long term.

I started him today & haven’t decided who to bench (Chase-Waddle-Olave + Hall in the Flex)

just looked like a smash play I’ll figure it out in the a.m.

I’ve started him 3 weeks in a row (Waddle then Olave bye weeks before today)
Waddle and Olave have been so frustrating this year. Never feel comfortable starting either.

Yeah & my studs were Burrow to Chase

still have good RBs but probably not my year
 
Hasn't practiced this week.

PlayerPositionInjuryWedThuFriGame Status
Josiah DeguaraTEHipLPLPUnspecified
AJ DillonRBGroinDNPLPUnspecified
Aaron JonesRBKneeDNPDNPUnspecified
Jayden ReedWRChestDNPDNPUnspecified
Dontayvion WicksWRKneeLPLPUnspecified
 

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