CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Reed just broke Sterling Sharpe‘s Packers franchise record for most receptions by a rookie.
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WR Jayden Reed, GB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I believe we are just tip of the ice-burg with Reed too. Don't believe he saw greater than 80% snap share all season, most weeks hovering around 60%. Seeing Love develop alongside him gives a very optimistic view moving forward. I think pending who popular fantasy/dynasty writers target in the off-season, he could still be a valuable buy in dynasty overshadowed by other blow up rookies like Puka and Dell, even Rice and Flowers are getting more recognition then Reed right now. I'd definitely be sending out feelers for him, especially as the rookie draft gets close and pick values hit their annual hype spike. Current value between a late 1st and early 2nd, which I'd be happy to pay. Then again I already own him so a bit biased hah. I also think there's a good shot some of the bigger names latch onto him and pump his value up through the offseason. Harmon and Waldman both already loved him, I'd figure that love has only grown. And I'd be his actual reception perception profile will show very favorably.
sheerterror
Footballguy
I have 5 2nd rounders - love the idea of using one to target him. Problem is [deep league] I'm sitting on Doubs, Musgrave and Kraft. Only so many Packers (or any team) I want this many shares of.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I def hear that and have found myself in similar circumstances before. For Reed though, I'd make an exception. Especially seeing Love turning into a solid QB over the course of this season. I think a healthy Reed not even showing much growth next year will be a WR2 floor.
For your circumstance it might be a benefit to have Musgrave and Kraft because at least one of them I think will get a lot of work moving forward. Which one though, I'm not so sure.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
How many 2nd rounders would you offer? He looks like a possible star to me.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
At this point I think I'd be fine with 2 2nds and would likely throw in a 4th or something if it would just close it without too much negotiating, but I do think I'd risk waiting a bit. Reeds hype could grow as metrics for his season get generated and passed around, but I also think the hype for this "historical WR draft class" will keep growing. I'm not saying I don't like the class, but I think people holding a lot of picks will be able to use it to their advantage more this season then the past few.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
You are right that this WR class is going to be really hyped. I know the top is pretty great- I don’t know much about its depth as we push into round 2. I think with Reed, once Matt Harmon, JJ and the other big analysts who have been hyping him up since pre NFL draft get into his film and metrics, Reed’s value will shoot way up. I saw one large dynasty site tweet that they see him as a 3rd round pick in redraft.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Same, from what I've read so far the depth should hold through the 2nd round, but I haven't done enough research to figure out my personal opinions on them yet. I'd be willing to bet there will be some gold even into the third round though. But my usual approach is a WR in hand is worth two in the draft lol; plus I think I shot my luck load last year being able to get Reed, Dell, Puka in rounds 2/3/4. Likely to be the best draft I'll ever have playing dynasty, least looking that way as of now.
I'd probably agree on the 3rd round redraft value, not just because of his potential talent ceiling, but his situation. I think Wicks is very talented and will help Reed not have to immediately dominate in a JJ type way to still put up great fantasy numbers. And they likely have to start fresh with RB, so unless they get lucky with an excellent receiving back I think some of Aaron Jones touches will get redistributed to the receiving corp. I've also been a Love truther though too haha (I don't think he's an elite guy, but after the first few weeks saw enough that I think they can ride with him for the foreseeable future and stay competitive), so I have a few biases working for me in my dream scenario of Reed turning into a Diggs type WR who doesn't have to waste his early years on a team that doesn't utilize him properly. On that note, I would like GB to continue increasing his usage lining up as the X though as they move him around the formation. I think that's where he'll really shine most.
sheerterror
Footballguy
I have 1 early, 1 mid and 3 late. Would try for 2 late to start, or perhaps 1 late + Doubs and go from there. But as you guys have suggested, I think I'll be waiting til closer to the draft to take advantage of the inevitable pick perception value spike.
In terms of being the most productive I'd imagine it's between him and an actually healthy Watson with Reed likely going first in fantasy drafts because people don't trust Watson to be healthy.
But I've yet to see any sign they don't consider Reed as a slot only option. That obviously could change and how both TE's have looked might be a driving force behind that change, especially if they want to run more 12 personnel, but even with Watson out they've not really played Reed as any more then a slot option. So with respect to what I view as a traditional teams WR1, I'm not seeing that as part of the plan as of yet.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Not a chance I consider trading Reed for two late 2nd round picks personally
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I'd say the actual splits of where he lines up say they don't consider Reed as a "slot only option". To this point in the season, he's lined up outside 116 of 535 plays; so more than 20% of the times he's on the outside as opposed to in the slot. And they certainly aren't ignoring him when he lines up there, nor is he suffering from a lack of talent there, as 20 of his 60 receptions and 2 of his 8 touchdowns come from the outside. Which comparatively shows he produces just as well, if not better at times, outside than in the slot. I've already said in this thread, he showed in college (where he played an almost even split slot vs outside) he's more than capable of lining up at any spot on the field and performing at a high level. Regardless, I think the past few years of changes in the NFL have shown a talented WR can easily put up WR1 numbers despite where they line up. ARSB has been doing just fine playing 75%+ of his snaps from the slot. As did Kupp the year he got the triple crown.
I think the real question/gamble is who do you think GB prefers moving forward? Because as of now, Doubs has been their most used WR. This is partially due to availability as he was (I think) the only WR on the roster to not miss time. Also, credit where it's due, he's been very consistent with his opportunities. However, IMO, when diving into the metrics it's been consistently average though. I think while Doubs might have a solid floor, he has the lowest ceiling of Watson, Reed, and Wicks. To me, he's like Noah Brown on the Texans. He can produce when given the targets, but there is nothing he does that Nico and/or Dell don't do better. I'd say the same of Doubs vs Watson/Reed/and even Wicks. And I think ultimately Doubs will be the one ceding touches over the long run.
I also think the coaches hopefully realized that when he was being used as a WR1 and the first look of Love's progressions, Watson was NOT doing well. Especially troubling was he wasn't doing well in the area he's been sold as being his best, contested catches. I wouldn't be pikachu face shocked if they gave him another turn at it again next season due to his awesome athletic measurables and some of the flashes he had. But most of the flashes came playing with Rodgers rather than Love. And like was already said, his health/availability is fair to be called into question at this point.
I did say 'slot only' but this is a bit semantical as I don't know anyone who lines up in the slot 100% of the time. I just think his usage indicates they view him as mainly a slot receiver even when injuries occurred kept him mainly in that role.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I guess then I'm just failing to see your point then when looking at the rest of the teams numbers. Your statement "but even with Watson out they've not really played Reed as any more then a slot option"? Because Watson ran only 30% of his routes out wide, and 70% from the slot. So really, he did take over Watson's role while he was out with practically the same splits of slot vs out wide. In fact the only WR on the team who lined up outside more than 30% of the time was Doubs, who lined up out wide on about 60% of his plays. And like I said, he was never injured, so it would make no sense to insinuate Reed would/should be getting more snaps out wide due to injuries. No one who lined up out wide significantly more than Reed got injured or missed time.
And again, ultimately, what does it really matter with regards to fantasy production?
Whether Watson was healthy or not his role was primarily that of a slot role and not a outside WR. Not sure what else there is to understand. They viewed him a slot player with minimal movement outside. You can disagree with that all you want.
As for that last question my initial response already detailed the differentiation between stats and that of a legit #1.
sheerterror
Footballguy
That's fine and I probably wouldn't either if I owned him, but that doesn't mean owners in any of our leagues feel the same - nor does it make that a bad starting point in negotiations.
Most people bought him for a late 2nd - early 3rd last year. Offering back that late 2nd plus an extra 2 (especially at a time when rookie pick value perception spikes) for a guy with all of 60/680 in a year where several rookies blew that away is far from egregious. He's got almost identical receiving numbers to afterthought Romeo Doubs - I don't think it's far fetched to assume that not every owner of his out there has tagged him with a 1st round price tag.
Boston
Footballguy
If I got a trade notification and saw that was the offer I would be severely disappointed.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
No need to get hostile bud. You're the one who brought up twice that he "wasn't getting more looks outside when Watson/other WRs got injured". That didn't make sense and still doesn't. You probably just assumed Watson was running more outside, when in actuality he wasn't. Like I pointed out, nobody who got injured was running out wide any more that Reed was. So your premise that his usage outside didn't increase despite injuries makes 0 sense.
rockaction
Footballguy
Jayden Reed was used out of the slot 71.2% of the time, according to Matt Harmon of Reception Perception. Now, that's only for the games that Harmon charted, but it seems like a significant number.
Player Profiler has him at 65.6% out of the slot.
Player Profiler has Watson in the slot at a 35% rate.
From watching the games, it seemed like Watson lined up more outside than Reed did. Everybody's mileage may vary, but no need to get personal with each other. You're both excellent commenters in this space.
Player Profiler has him at 65.6% out of the slot.
Player Profiler has Watson in the slot at a 35% rate.
From watching the games, it seemed like Watson lined up more outside than Reed did. Everybody's mileage may vary, but no need to get personal with each other. You're both excellent commenters in this space.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Also he seemed to do very well from the slot and we can’t forget he got some Deebo like usage on rushes and was very effective. With guys like Kupp and ARSB, we’ve seen primarily slot players can be elite fantasy options.
rockaction
Footballguy
I was making no comment about fantasy efficacy, but rather trying to shed some light on pinkstapler/menobrown's debate.
But I see the argument you're trying to make. CeeDee Lamb is another receiver who has excelled primarily from the slot. I don't know about this year, but in 2022 he was in the slot just over fifty percent of the time. So there's certainly room for WR1 numbers from the slot, as Kupp, ARSB, and Lamb would all tell you—as would fantasy gamers alike.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Oh yeah I wasn’t trying to argue- just adding to the convo and saying maybe whether he’s a slot player or not is irrelevant and the real question is the talent.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Wow huge discrepancy on Watson from what I was seeing on Rotowire splits. Pretty much the opposite, as they show him ~70% in the slot and 30% outside.
Scroll to receiving alignment breakdown.
If my source is the one off, then sorry for that. I watched GB probably more than my Steelers this year mainly due to high investment in the team across all my leagues, and it felt like Watson and Reed ran very similar splits slot vs outside, so that's why I took what Rotowire had at face value. Maybe should have looked at a few other sources to compare rather than stop at the first source cause it confirmed what I thought to begin with.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Wow, okay.
I have no idea then.
Here's where I got my information so you can see I'm not dreaming either. Scroll down.
Christian Watson Stats & Fantasy Ranking - PlayerProfiler
Christian Watson player profile featuring career stats, fantasy ranking, & analytics data. See combine scores, SPARQ, measurables, and comparable players.
www.playerprofiler.com
Yours sounds right, though. Don't know why, but I was led to believe that Watson was lining up in the slot so they could get him off press. Watching the games told me differently, but I didn't watch enough to feel certain about it.
rockaction
Footballguy
Oh yeah, I didn't take it negatively, Ilov.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
To derail the thread just a wee bit more, always wanted to know who is the girl in your profile pic? Looked familiar but could never put my finger on it.
Wow, okay.
I have no idea then.
Here's where I got my information so you can see I'm not dreaming either. Scroll down.
Christian Watson Stats & Fantasy Ranking - PlayerProfiler
Christian Watson player profile featuring career stats, fantasy ranking, & analytics data. See combine scores, SPARQ, measurables, and comparable players.
Yours sounds right, though. Don't know why, but I was led to believe that Watson was lining up in the slot so they could get him off press. Watching the games told me differently, but I didn't watch enough to feel certain about it.
rockaction
Footballguy
Sure. Anna Karina. French New Wave actress. Jean-Luc Godard's muse and spouse for a time.
I am not that cool where I'm a cinephile; I just think she was one of the most beautiful actresses of the sixties. And quite the actress, to boot. It's been my avatar so long I don't even think about it anymore, though I'm often asked who it is.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Yeah she definitely catches my eye every time for good reason lol. The style would always remind me of Hepburn but with longer hair and thinner brows. I was guessing possibly an older British actress, but French makes total sense too. I'll have to check out a few of her movies, thanks!!
PS. I also love movies but wouldn't call myself a cinephile. In my experience the ones who do tend to be a little too pompous and gatekeep-y. Especially now with Letterboxd blowing up, lots of people who can't distinguish opinions from facts haha.
Doug B
Footballguy
After his rookie season and when Brees was still with the Saints, unquestioned real-life WR1 Michael Thomas feasted from the slot during the 2017 and 2018 seasons. I don't have percentages of plays run from various WR positions, but Thomas-in-the-slot was treated by local commentators as an innovative wrinkle Sean Payton threw into the offense.
EDIT: Jayden Reed and Michael Thomas are very different physically. Just supporting the point that "working from the slot" doesn't necessarily mean "real-life WR3".
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rockaction
Footballguy
I definitely mentioned him upthread. He's almost Exhibit A at this point. ARSB and Kupp being a close second and third, though Kupp is declining, it seems.
Not sure what you are talking about being hostile.
It's just not a difficult concept to grasp that Reed primarily plays in the slot and rarely plays when they use just two WR's.
And you might need to double check your Watson stats, bud.
Lamb's usually a little over 50% out of the slot.
You are right though, running out the slot is not an issue at all it just becomes an issue if the team views you as primarily a slot and takes you off the field more then they would if you lined up outside when they are not in 11 personnel which was the point I was trying to get at with Reed.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Would you please share you're source of info if you're asking me to double check stats, as I posted where I found mine. And they were just about the only source I could find showing actual alignment splits.
Same place that Rock mentioned, Player Profiler.
I did no see your post until just now on where you got your data. I looked at it and seems hard to think it's correct as they have every single WR and TE on the team playing primarily more out of the slot then out wide with exception of Doubs and even he's listed as a 40% slot guy. They list all the WR's and TE's as playing 1,896 snaps as slots and 1,027 outwide. I would venture to guess they have a different view point of what they consider as lining up outside vs in the slot.
I'll say again I realize I introduced the slot verbiage into the discussion but it's led this convo astrway. I mentioned it intitially because in my head I typically view primary slot WR's as the teams #3 WR in snap counts and not on the field when the team is not lining up in 11 personell or other groupings utilizing 3 or more WR's and part of that is because I think those teams tend to think lining up that player outwide instead of giving them more space to operate inside with more space is not conducive to their skill set. This to me is how I view the way GB utilized Reed, it's not how players like Lamb or Allen are used. That was reallly my main point, that Reed comes off the field a lot when they are not in 11 personell or using formations with 3 or more WR's and in my initial reply I was trying to make a case that's not how a team typically uses what people would view as their WR1 and I tried to make a differentation on being the most productive fantasy WR on a team versus a teams real life #1WR.
rockaction
Footballguy
It looked so wrong I got out my calculator and added, too. That sort of disparity doesn't seem right. If it were reversed I could see it. In other words, in 11 personnel, you have a LWR, RWR, slot receiver, therefore the numbers should be greater for the outside snaps. That would make sense then. But it's like 2000 slot snaps to 1000 outside snaps.
That doesn't seem right.
But your overall point is taken, too. Reed is (or was) coming off of the field in two-receiver sets, and that generally isn't happening to your WR1.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
After looking through both, and seeing a lot of other data where RW and PP actually have the same numbers, my best guess is that PP numbers are based on routes actually run out of that alignment. Whereas I think RW is counting every single play in that alignment, even if it's a run play. Not sure if that's 100% it, but it feels like the way that the two different data sets actually align. So Watson may have lined up in the slot 65-70% of the time, but about half of those were actually rushing plays so his actual utilization as a WR from that alignment was a lot lower, like PP has.
Much appreciated on the response. I think your explanation there made a lot more sense to me. And I'd actually tend to agree hah. That thought process was a major point I was making against JSNs higher projections before the season started. Not so much his skill, as just him losing opportunities by coming off the field a lot more than DK/Lockett were going to. And looking at it more objectively, if Watson played more than 9 games this season all this snap/alignment data very likely would have been more decisively showing what you're saying. It only all looks closer than it is because of his injuries; otherwise odds are his usage numbers would be closer to, if not exceed, Doubs.
That's a good comp and I recall a lot of discussion centered around how Seattle likes to run a lot of 12 personnel and how that would impact their ability to get JSN on the field.
The good news for Reed is that I believe GB has been among the league leaders in 11 personnel packages since Lafluer arrived though I don't have exact data on this from this season. But one of the things I had mentioned and will be interested to see unfold is how this will look when both TE's are healthy, now that it looks like both can play.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Yeah a lot of my hype/hope for Reed certainly revolves around him beating out Doubs (and staying ahead of Wicks) for run in 2 WR sets. Otherwise my projected floor for him as a WR2 will also likely be his ceiling capped by touches/usage. And a solid point about the TE as it pretty much looks like GB were lucky enough to hit on just about every offensive weapon pick they've made the past two drafts. It was a big reason why I was pumping Love for this year, and probably have him sneaking into the bottom of my top 12 for next season. Their receiving room including TEs is basically the antithesis of KCs hah.
I'd like to think its Reed and Watson, with Wicks as the 3rd guy going into next season. I have no clue what they plan for TE, but I'm sure they consider it a good "problem" to have. Fantasy owners of Musgrave and Kraft are probably hoping for some clarity prior to week 1, though I doubt they get it.
I think that's how most people think it should be but they seem to really like Doubs.
Speaking of sneaky I had no idea he has moved to QB5 in total points and QB7 in PPG until some discussion occurred here a few day ago, and I actually owned him on some teams and still did not realize it. I mentioned in that discussion a crazy stat that GB had over 98% of their WR and TE production from first/second year players which was highest amount tracked since at least the last merger in 2002 with 76% being the next highest. The growth potential here is enormous and Love has the arm and they have the weapons to attack teams in a multiple variety of ways at all areas of the field.
Not to get off subject of Reed but I'm one of these owners, both together in a league and separately in others and all TE premium. I know a GB beat writer for The Athletic recently termed them as pretty much TE1 and 1A which does me no good. I don't think it's actually going to tell me what I need to know because I'm sure with an entire off-season of planning things will change but it's one of the reasons I'll pulling for GB to make and advance in the playoffs as I suspect Musgrave will be back and hoping we get some small element of a preview. I think I'm going to heavily target the duo in BB TE premium leagues on notion actually picking one to start might be an issue, but it's nice injury protection and odds of one of them doing something each week should be good. They are really very different, I'm mainily team Musgrave, but Kraft is just to good to be put back in the box.
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
There just seems to be something about Reed. I personally would let go of both Musgrave and Kroft if that is what was necessary to get a stake of Reed.
rockaction
Footballguy
From Matt Harmon at Reception Perception. Normally I don't give away freebies, but maybe this will boost demand for the product. If it's too much, I'll take it down per request. I subscribe to Reception Perception and it's worth it when investing in receivers for dynasty.
Harmon: The more I’ve charted Jayden Reed, the more I’d like to see him featured in the Packers offense. He was one of my favorite prospects and his game is translating to the NFL field. There have been some growing pains here – some route depth and timing issues – which isn’t too shocking for a rookie but his 77.8% success is still solid. Reed has thrived against man coverage. His 78.6% success rate is astounding and is demonstrative of an explosive and detailed technician. I’m such a fan of his route running, especially when working the deep and intermediate areas. Reed hasn’t faced much press but he’s won all four of the reps I charted across four games. The Packers would benefit by making Reed the primary of this offense, as he’s their lone consistent separator.
Harmon: The more I’ve charted Jayden Reed, the more I’d like to see him featured in the Packers offense. He was one of my favorite prospects and his game is translating to the NFL field. There have been some growing pains here – some route depth and timing issues – which isn’t too shocking for a rookie but his 77.8% success is still solid. Reed has thrived against man coverage. His 78.6% success rate is astounding and is demonstrative of an explosive and detailed technician. I’m such a fan of his route running, especially when working the deep and intermediate areas. Reed hasn’t faced much press but he’s won all four of the reps I charted across four games. The Packers would benefit by making Reed the primary of this offense, as he’s their lone consistent separator.
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
I agree with this. But...
- I also have been wondering to myself, "What if Watson is 'never' going to play a complete season?"
- I have been unable to watch very little football this season and don't believe I have seen Green Bay play at all, and so this could be completely off, but I get the sense that Reed might be on equal footing if not actually surpassing Doubs
- This was Reeds rookie year, he will surely be even better next year.
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
I didn't have the stats, but this has been an obvious point and leaves me wondering just how good this offense can be. If everyone stays healthy, we could easily have a 3-headed "monster" wr corp for several years. And if they find someone to "equal" to A Jones in the passing and running game to take the reigns as he starts to slow down... shudder!
