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WR Keenan Allen, CHI (2 Viewers)

FF Ninja said:
I can't make myself bench him in PPR formats. Plus, his end zone allergy is due to clear up any day now...
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Yeah I want to bench him, but I don’t have better options this week. I don’t see him having a monster game, but in PPR, double digits is certainly possible. My issue also is that I am playing Gordon and Henry too. I don’t feel good about some many Chargers this week, but it’s either Allen or Kupp and Kupp is so inconsistent 

 
MattFancy said:
Add me to the Allen/Martin duo as well lol. Have to start both this week with Hunt and Ajayi on byes. Not happy about it, but we’ll see what happens. 
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I'm getting crazy this week and starting Cohen and D Booker over both of them.

I will report back after the games and let you guys know if I need to be talked off the ledge.

 
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Receiving stats are definitely down so far this season or they are more evenly dispersed as compared to last season, and seasons prior to that.

To illustrate this in 2017 twenty players have 40 or more receptions this year. Keenan Allen is one of those players. In 2016 after the first 9 weeks 43 players had 40 or more receptions.

Total receptions for players above 40 in 2017 is 888 receptions. In 2016 total receptions for players above 40 was 2045 receptions.

That is a huge difference. Twice as many players had averaged 5 receptions or more per game (40) as this season and the total receptions were more than twice as many.

So while Allens numbers may not look that good compared to last year (around the 35th-40th player at this point last season) he does have the 16th most receptions this year. Those numbers are more valuable in a relative sense this year than fantasy owners may be accustomed to.

Maybe the above is too extreme as the sample does have more players with 9 games played than have been played this year. So looking at the first 8 weeks instead, 28 players have 40 or more receptions last year, eight more than this year. and total receptions for players above 40 was 1319. Still significantly more than this season.

2016 was a down year for receiver stats compared to 2014-2015. The trend is down.

Reasons for this I would speculate being worse QB play and improved defensive play across the NFL. More throws to players other than WR (spreading the ball around) and slightly more rushing attempts. Right now each team is averaging 26.7 rushing attempts per game while last season it was 26 per game. Some of the best WR being injured, such as OBJ, Robinson.

Anyhow Keenan Allen is very valuable in a relative sense this season, although the numbers do not match up to previous seasons. He is tied for 11th in terms of total receptions with Hill, Evans, Garcon and Hill has one more game played than Allen does.

Folks are talking about benching a top 12 WR because of the bad match up and benching him for players who are really risky starts. That doesn't make much sense to me when Allen is one of the few truly consistent WR plays so far this season that overall is down and does not provide better options.

eta on a per game basis pass attempts are down 1.4 per game, completions are down 1.1 and yards are down 14.2 

 
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If Allen can find the end zone a few times down the stretch, he will be fine. 10th in targets, 11th in receptions, 12th in receiving yards. I think it's fair to expect Keenan to return on the WR2 value he was drafted at. 

 
I think he may be a good PPR play this week. He may not get a touchdown but I can see 8-10 catches for 60 yards with a lot of underneath work while the Jags main corners shut down the other Charger WR's.

 
The best part is he has a pretty good ROS schedule (at least I think just by looking at the teams, none of them ring a bell of being anything special). Hopefully he doesn't have to wait another 10 weeks for a TD and he raises that floor from 10 points to 15+

 
fred_1_15301 said:
Maybe but the poster was expressing shock that anyone could possibly bench Allen. :shrug:  
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Yeah I can understand why folks may have benched him. I posted about that at length a week or so ago not too far back in the thread why they should consider keeping him in, but I am not shocked people benched him.

 
pbandy1 said:
I'm just curious to see the receivers he is benched for, considering he is in the top 10 of most targeted WRs this year.
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I’m in a non-PPR league where I start 2 receivers. I have Allen, Woods, Juju, Thielen, Marvin Jones.  Do you think I had an easy decision?  

 
rickyg said:
If only targets = fantasy points.  He’d be the WR1 GOAT.  
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Well he is WR 9 in fantasy points now.

I can totally understand why people benched him against Jacksonville, but Buffalo wasn't a bad match up.

Rivers did have to clear concussion protocol this past week, which he did, but I can see that as a reason why people may have paused to start him this week.

Peterman threw 5 interceptions. Yikes. Setting up a perfect storm for the Chargers to have a big game on offense.

 
Benched him yesterday. Rolled with Fitz and juju at wr and engram at flex. Thankfully im likely gonna get away with it. 

 
One of those days that makes it fun to still do this stupid hobby.  Love the West Coast starts.  I was down big until Keenan and Brady laced em up.

:pickle:

 
Biabreakable said:
Well he is WR 9 in fantasy points now.

I can totally understand why people benched him against Jacksonville, but Buffalo wasn't a bad match up.

Rivers did have to clear concussion protocol this past week, which he did, but I can see that as a reason why people may have paused to start him this week.

Peterman threw 5 interceptions. Yikes. Setting up a perfect storm for the Chargers to have a big game on offense.
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I thought sd was gonna run all game. Turns out you can do whatever you want vs buf

 
Biabreakable said:
Well he is WR 9 in fantasy points now.

I can totally understand why people benched him against Jacksonville, but Buffalo wasn't a bad match up.

Rivers did have to clear concussion protocol this past week, which he did, but I can see that as a reason why people may have paused to start him this week.

Peterman threw 5 interceptions. Yikes. Setting up a perfect storm for the Chargers to have a big game on offense.
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Oh I’m not complaining about him.  I’ve started him pretty much every week I could this season including yesterday and I’ve taken the good with the bad.  

I was just referring to the poster who made the argument that he’s been awesome BC he gets a lot of targets.  That only means something for fantasy if he catches those targets and does something with the ball in his hands. Targets alone unfortunately don’t get us fantsy pts. 

 
rickyg said:
Oh I’m not complaining about him.  I’ve started him pretty much every week I could this season including yesterday and I’ve taken the good with the bad.  

I was just referring to the poster who made the argument that he’s been awesome BC he gets a lot of targets.  That only means something for fantasy if he catches those targets and does something with the ball in his hands. Targets alone unfortunately don’t get us fantsy pts. 
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I didn't say he's been awesome - was only trying to say that fantasy football is so random the only thing you can truly rely on is targets and match-ups.

 
MattFancy said:
They really have  Such an odd season for fantasy and actual football. 
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I think defenses have been catching up.

Also think that targets to receivers have been spread around more, a reaction to defenses catching up.

It is also related to QB play not being what it was at what looks like a peak in passing attempts of 65 per game in 2013. What we have gotten used to in terms of WR production from 2013-2015.

Last year was down from that peak for WR production as well. So this is two years in a row now that WR productivity is declining.

 
Being curious I just looked this up quickly

2011 17410 pass attempts 117601 yards 745 TD
2012 17788 pass attempts 118418 yards 757 TD
2013 18136 pass attempts 120626 yards 804 TD
2014 17879 pass attempts 121247 yards 807 TD
2015 18298 pass attempts 124843 yards 842 TD
2016 18295 pass attempts 123639 yards 786 TD

This year not counting the game currently in progress most teams have 10 games played now. and there have been 10921 pass attempts 72555 yards 479 TD

Pro rating these numbers to 16 games would be 17473 pass attempts 116088 yards 766 TD

If this holds it means 2017 will be back to 2011-2012 levels of passing attempts yards and TD.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, there have been more passes going to TE and RB players than before, so a smaller pie for WR in general.

Anyhow WR scoring is still going to be relative to other WR players for the purpose of fantasy football and your leagues starting requirements.

What I am hoping to communicate here is that comparing WR production to the last 3 years of WR production will make almost all of the WR seem like disappointments. The passing stats are down and being spread to other than WR players than it has in recent seasons.

2015 was the last peak in passing production. 2013 was the last peak in total plays.

 
Finally with this guy. Hope he can stay hot.

Any homers have an opinion on why they haven't been able to take more advantage of Allen's skills?

 
So nice to see Keenan get back to top form after that devastating injury last year.  Seems like a really good dude, too.

 
pbandy1 said:
I'm just curious to see the receivers he is benched for, considering he is in the top 10 of most targeted WRs this year.
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Non ppr league. I had to pick only 2 WRs and he'd had a top score of 6.70 points across the previous six weeks ( including 1 bye ). I started Robert Woods who had been putting up big scores and Brandin Cooks. Admittedly, I could have started him in flex over Mckinnon. It was the first week I'd benched him this season . Needless to say I thankfully started him tonight 

 
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Bfrahm3 said:
The best part is he has a pretty good ROS schedule (at least I think just by looking at the teams, none of them ring a bell of being anything special). Hopefully he doesn't have to wait another 10 weeks for a TD and he raises that floor from 10 points to 15+
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or 20+

 
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