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WR Kendrick Bourne, SF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tombonneau
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
WRBC in a low volume passing attack, sign me up!!!
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I predict you will be wrong on this one. Not great defense, not great running game, behind frequently. What does that translate to? A lot more passing attempts. Brady jumped from 400 attempts to 600 attempts in year 2 with essentially very similar circumstances. NE is going to have to take the training wheels off Jones to score points and stay in games this year.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Imagine letting slob Matt Patricia decide the fate of your team's players?
I think Billy B may want to hang up his hoodie soon. He's slipping.
I think Billy B may want to hang up his hoodie soon. He's slipping.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
In an interview the other day, he revised his previous statement from many years ago (I don't see myself coaching when I'm 70) to now he can see himself coaching until he's 80. He loves coaching and doesn't have anything else he wants to do.
What's interesting with regard to the Dolphins game, he sounded like they were in position to or could have won the game. The defense only allowed 13 points, a penalty here, a bad bounce there, and overall the game was pretty evenly matched. Except for the play when three defenders ran into each other, he was really happy with the defensive effort. He gave his usual analysis after that (still plenty to work on in all three phases of the game, the coaches have to do a better job coaching, and the players need to do a better job playing.)
Maybe that was just lip service and he thought they played terribly, and he's preparing for a miserable season. But it didn't sound like it, and he seemed pretty chipper for a team that just lost. Again, people can decide what state the Patriots franchise is in and if Bill is delusional in his assessment as to how things went against the Fins and how things look moving forward.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
its going to be entertaining to watch the pundits go apoplectic after NE stomps a mudhole on trubisky and gimpy najee.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I've been beating the drum since last year that Bourne needs to (best case) be more prominently featured in the NE offense or (worst case) at a minimum see more time on the field and get more targets. Apparently, my eye test and statistical research were not misguided.
ESPN has invented a new WR evaluation metric called Catch Score (because we didn't have enough made-up player evaluation tools and statistics to argue over). Across 2021-22, if Bourne had played more, he would rank as the #1 WR in all of the NFL (in this new receiving category). While even I don't believe Bourne sniffs the Top 10 WR in the league, I do think he is a lot better than he gets credit for, his efficiency numbers are crazy good, and he definitely should be playing a lot more (on an offense that doesn't have a lot of top-level playmakers).
LINK. If someone printed out that article for BB to read, I am sure he would take it with him the men's room and wipe with it. But we are getting to the point where Bourne makes big plays in his handful of snaps each game. Other NE receiving targets? A lot less frequently than Bourne.
ESPN has invented a new WR evaluation metric called Catch Score (because we didn't have enough made-up player evaluation tools and statistics to argue over). Across 2021-22, if Bourne had played more, he would rank as the #1 WR in all of the NFL (in this new receiving category). While even I don't believe Bourne sniffs the Top 10 WR in the league, I do think he is a lot better than he gets credit for, his efficiency numbers are crazy good, and he definitely should be playing a lot more (on an offense that doesn't have a lot of top-level playmakers).
LINK. If someone printed out that article for BB to read, I am sure he would take it with him the men's room and wipe with it. But we are getting to the point where Bourne makes big plays in his handful of snaps each game. Other NE receiving targets? A lot less frequently than Bourne.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Left off of this blurb is the part where NE is inclined to keep him and that they currently aren't interested in trading him.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
100% agree. Although I do not understand why he is not getting more usage there.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Since you asked . . .
It has been said that Bourne voiced his displeasure with the way the offense was being handled in the offseason post-McDaniels. At the time, NE was trying to implement a Shanahan style zone blocking scheme. As the story goes, Bourne offered to help (seeing how he played for a Shanahan) and offered constructive criticism. Part of the issue, of course, was the offense was getting managed by Patricia and Judge, two guys that never coached offense before. Apparently, Bourne was told his help wasn't needed and to leave the scheming and coaching to the coaching staff.
That made for an awkward camp, and Bourne got grouped with the second unit almost immediately. To observers, he didn't show much (and at times his effort was questioned). His target numbers in practice were almost non-existent. People looked back at their notes from last year and noted he didn't flash much then either, concluding he was a game day player more than a practice player. Except Week 1 came, and he only played 2 snaps. He played 106 snaps since then (giving him 28% of all offensive plays on the season so far).
Mac Jones really likes him, and they have some chemistry together. With Agholor, Meyers, and Thornton out for a while, I thought Bourne would put up decent numbers, but Jones got hurt and Zappe and Bourne aren't a thing yet. NE does have a lot of receivers when you add in Parker. They also have been playing a lot of 2 TE sets. Bottom line, they haven't really utilized him much (but they should). He was their most explosive player on offense last year.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
A nobody should keep his mouth shut
Boston
Footballguy
Bourne has had a roller-coaster ride since signing with the Pats...one minute looking very good and the next minute in the doghouse...right now everyone is singing his praises...I have read/heard a few things where it appears "the light bulb" has gone on for him...if I had to roll the dice with one Patriot WR it would be him...he is not gonna be an All Pro but he does possess big play ability and plays a more diverse game than Juju and Parker.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I'm hoping BOB makes his own decisions. I am not a huge fan of JJSS, Parker, and Thornton and would rather see Bourne, Douglas, and Boutte get the majority of snaps. I heard a discussion with Bedard and someone else on the radio (couldn't recognize the voice, but he's been to all their practices). The discussion involved Juju looking washed and reminiscent of Mohamed Sanu. Ugh. Struggles to get open, doesn't have another gear, and said to be easy to defend and doesn't always fight for the ball. Bedard commented that JJS and Parker need to be schemed to get open, neither one has much juice, and no defense is really going to worry about how to defend either one of them. Bedard did rave about Bourne (and we know how much Bedard raves about anyone). He said his speed isn't great, but he is shiftier than you think, has great intangibles, and there is a noticeable increase in his effort this year.
Bedard still isn't sold on Boutte. He thinks his routes are sloppy, his speed isn't top tier, and his effort is inconsistent. He does like his hands, and he can make some tough catches. But he doesn't think he is a lock to make the roster and has a long way to go to earn significant playing time. Bedard does like Douglas, but he believes Pop suffered a shoulder injury in the Packers game and is leery that he may miss some time to start the season. He likes how he looks, but he's not sure what the plan would be for him based on his lack of NFL experience and his size.
Boston
Footballguy
The Juju signing was wasted $...I didn't have any issues letting Meyers go but I would have rather given him that $ than Juju...Parker is what he is...a nothing too special WR who the Pats need to be better than he is based on the unit they have constructed...the Harry and Thornton draft picks are just killers...right now that should be your top two WRs...imagine how much of a better spot this O would be in if those picks were something like AJ Brown and Pickens.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Yeah, I get it. Things could have been different, but the fact is they're not.
We have no way of knowing if either of those guys would have worked out in NE. The Pats clearly struggle to identify, draft, and develop WR . . . those guys could have just as easily bombed in NE like Harry and Thornton did. (Not saying they would have, but they could have.) They want guys that fit into their system. People like to bash NE on picks that didn't work out or players that they didn't draft that were available.
But that can easily be said about all 32 franchises. Every team whiffs on picks, and most picks don't turn into All Pro players. There is no defense for several years worth of terrible NE drafts from a few years ago, but even with some misses they still have landed some productive players and contributors in more recent drafts. Look at KC. They could be headed for a five-peat if they hit on their early RB and WR picks the last several drafts (CEH, Moore, Hardman). They could have had Jonathan Taylor, DK Metcalf, or Terry McLaurin.
Boston
Footballguy
They have literally nothing to show for Harry and Thornton and Thornton was a guy that almost everyone said they over-drafted...Tom Brady is not here anymore so these mistakes are going to be magnified as are free agent signings like Nelson A and potentially Juju...maybe it's time to change the system since the most important part of it is gone.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Bourne also had 125 yards rushing that season. He had 925 YFS and 5 TD on 67 touches / 70 targets. It's not like NE has All Pro receivers. They could start by increasing his targets by 50% . . . which would translate to only 2 extra targets per game. Then he would have the potential to be in legit fantasy territory. Given that he currently has an ADP so low that he can be considered undrafted or is on the waiver wire, that's pretty decent production for someone that is free to obtain.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I think they will put him to use this year, good late round production IMO.
The Frankman
Footballguy
nittanylion
Footballguy
Great call @Anarchy99 !!!
LawFitz
Footballguy
I'm wondering about Bourne's fantasy starter viability against Xavien Howard this week. I like Bourne, but wouldn't be surprised if he follows the same Devante Parker NE WR1 boom/bust pathology that @Anarchy99 has laid out in other threads. No longer a secret who the Pats WR1 is now, as opponents prep their game plans.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I think the current way things are shaping up in NE is Bourne will be their primary guy and will be on the field the most. Jones trusts him and BOB will figure out how best to use him. I see Parker and Boutte splitting time and JJSS and Douglas splitting time. Henry could see the second most targets out of the WR/TE group, as Jones also seems to trust him as well. Gesicki is still being integrated, so hard to tell how they will use him and how long it might take for him to get acclimated. Despite what JuJu says, he's not fine. If his knee really is fine, then he's in trouble . . . what he has to offer and what he is providing is not good enough. They can scheme him open on occasion, but I outlined a lot of his issues already.
As for Bourne vs. Howard, BOB did a good job running WR stacks and routes that were difficult to diagnose and cover. IMO, that will help get guys off the line, they can usually get away with some pick plays, and Bourne has shown he can run slants and dig routes effectively. One of the reasons Bourne hasn't put up better (or more consistent) fantasy numbers was his limited number of targets . . . which should see a bump as they feature him more than they used to.
I would ignore a lot of what happened last year, as that was an unmitigated disaster with Matt Patricia. Looking back at 2021 when NE had an actual OC, Bourne only saw 70 targets. Over 360 targets that season went to players no longer on the roster (mostly Meyers, Agholor, Bolden, and Smith). A healthy Parker and Thornton will get some of those (but is either one ever healthy). Stevenson and Elliott combined may not even see the combined targets the RBs got that year (106 targets to backs). That still leaves 275 targets that are off the roster . . . and this version of the offense is more likely to have to throw more (only 535 passing attempts in 2021). There are still multiple options in NE, but Bourne should see the highest target share.
In terms of a WDIS question, I would start Bourne in a start 3 WR and a flex league. I would be less excited in a start 2 WR and a flex league (it would depend who else my options were and who they matched up against).
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LawFitz
Footballguy
Summing up your awesome post above with the one line that stood out above all to me. I added the bracketed language to make it a better summary of your thesis.
Thank you!
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, if NE were to do anything artificial, it would be to get Parker and Gesicki more involved going up against their old team. But I doubt they will go out of their way to do that. If JuJu has health, knowledge of the offense, or chemistry issues, not sure that’s the guy that would be a candidate to be force fed the ball. If he is a good matchup that they can exploit this week, they will scheme something up.
Boston
Footballguy
Agreed...something is off with him and has been since the get-go...until he shows it on the field I'd stay away from him.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
New Offense... I'm back in ... Bourne again baby
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I have projected 275/2/0 but there is a ceiling here in a shootout of 350/4/0 to some combination of Bourne, Henry, Boutte (if he goes), Gesiki (if he goes), RS.
Weebs210
Footballguy
I grabbed Bourne in 4/5 leagues. Most I'm going to let him ride the bench a little longer but in my dynasty for 2nd flex spot I'm going to start him over Hollywood. I know age 28 break outs are very rare but believe Bourne has a good shot for this year at least. Between Mac improving, dropping their OC, and Bourne being given the opportunity to be the wr1 this year, I think he will have a nice season.
Will be interesting to watch it play out but wanted him on my teams for sure.
Will be interesting to watch it play out but wanted him on my teams for sure.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Age 28 breakouts are usually rare because rarely do clouds part they way they seem to be doing for Bourne this season. Add to everything you stated the fact that Bourne has actually shown talent and efficiency previously but was stuck in the deep doghouse with the last OC.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
I think that’s an excellent point. I don’t know the stats on breakout seasons by age but 28 years breaking out seems unlikely enough not to bet on it.
It all depends how you define breakout. He was WR 32 in 2021. Last year can be written off very easily. Can he beat 2021 and finish something like WR 20? That sounds very reasonable. I picked him up in multiple leagues, because that would be an amazing value. Can he keep up his week 1 pace? That seems like a long shot.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Agreed on all fronts. Last season’s WR20 was D.J. Moore (63/888/7), numbers Bourne wasn’t too far off of back in 2021 (55/800/5). But to your closing point, I also agree we probably shouldn’t expect his Week 1 to be the norm. It took Mac Jones throwing a career-high 54 pass attempts to get Bourne to that 6/64/2 line. He’s a fine playmaker, I just don’t see him as a true #1. One week it’ll be him, another week it’ll be Henry, another week it’ll be Parker, another week it’ll be Douglas, another week it’ll be Gesicki, we may even see Smith-Schuster earn his paycheck one of those weeks. I’m just not seeing the upside on a 28-year-old receiver with a low Relative Athletic Score who has only one game of 100 receiving yards in 96 career games including playoffs, on a spread-the-wealth offense that focuses more on its running game. As a Pats fan I love him as a valuable role player for the team, but hard to trust in fantasy.
Edit - no harm in stashing him to see if he can sustain the production, I’m just not betting on it, that’s all.
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taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
6/64 isn’t a great line. People see the TDs too much.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
It’s nice in PPR, otherwise the TDs do the heavy lifting. I believe he had 4 games out of 17 in 2021 where he would’ve scored 10+ fantasy points (6 if it’s PPR). Cumulatively he did well for himself that year but in more games than not, his performances didn’t move the needle in fantasy. I’d feel better about rostering him in best ball where you can benefit from his spike games. I don’t think he’ll produce consistently enough to be reliable.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
There are many threads that had talk about Bourne. In one of the other ones, I posted that Bourne was fantasy relevant (Top 48 in a given week in a start 3 WR and a flex 12-team league) 9 times in 2021 in PPR leagues, He had weeks where he ranked as WR 5, 5, 8, 12, 23, 25, 35, 43, and 46. That was when he saw 70 targets on the entire season. In Week 1 this year, he saw 11 targets.
To repeat myself, Bourne had the most snaps and targets for the Pats last week by a large margin. Take a look at the NE receiving options. JJSS is coming off of knee surgery and there has been plenty of talk that he could be washed up. Parker already missed time with an injury and is questionable to play today. Thornton is on IR again. And they have two rookies (when BB rarely gives rookie WR much of a shot). The Pats already had to throw the ball a ton to stay in the game against the Eagles, and their schedule doesn't get any easier.
I find a lot of the discussion about Bourne amusing. People simply ignore the fact that he's been available for free. It's like people expect to go to a used car lot and then complain they can't find a brand new Tesla. Guys like Jefferson and Chase didn't go undrafted and make it to the waiver wire. After a small group of the elite WR, EVERY receiver has a lot of up and down weeks.
Is Bourne going to see 180 targets this year or multiple 2 TD games? Of course not. But NE doesn't really have another go to, reliable WR that Jones trusts to throw to. IIRC, he ranked Top 5 in the league in yards per target, YAC, and explosive plays in 2021 . . . but no one noticed or paid attention. I won't go so far to call him the next DeAndre Hopkins, but IMO, BOB could use him as Hopkins Lite (he's not as good as Hopkins was . . . but I can see them trying to get him the ball in similar ways). Hopkins averaged 10 targets a game in his 6 years playing with O'Brien. (The #1 receiver in his time running the offense in NE also averaged 10 targets a game.)
People can manage their teams and rosters however they want. I play in 16-team leagues that start 5-6 WR per team. Playing Bourne is pretty much a no brainer for me. The bigger the league, the more value he has. The smaller the league, the less value he has. IMO, he's worth picking up to see what happens, and he's probably worth starting if you need someone as an injury fill in or flex at a minimum. If he crashes and burns . . . then drop him. It's not like he was your first round pick.
