Thoughts:
We can’t entirely write off production coming on screens and deep slot targets, but I do typically discount this sort of production to a high degree. In both instances, the WR is not being asked to beat a cornerback with their route running, athleticism, or physicality – the real determining factor for future NFL success.
Screens are “manufactured touches” or “gimme/layup throws” with a 91% expected completion rate. It’s nice to know a player has the sort of athleticism or after-the-catch abilities to be featured in this role. But it’s agnostic to what’s truly going to matter at the next level.
Slot production is only slightly devalued in my model, but deep slot production is heavily discounted. Slot fades are not really indicative of a WR's skill or talent, but rather highlight an at least borderline level of competency from the offensive play-caller, who – even if they don't know a lot – at least knows enough to exploit one of the most obvious and potent efficiency hacks at the college level. Even if it were true that Burden was an elite “slot fade artist” in college, we don’t know how well that will translate from the college to the pros, where you lose the wide hashes and slot fades become significantly less common. That’s the key point here. But some other minor points involve the disparity in talent between slot and outside cornerbacks at the college level, the avoidance of press coverage, the popularity of two-high and quarters coverage at the NCAA-level, etc.
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86 REC 120 TGT 1,209 YDS 9 TD
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10 Yard Split: 1.55 (8.32)
