Redraft '25- He's being drafted at the very top end and I don't understand why he isn't dinged a bit for the Giants, Russ, possible lame duck coach, spotty talent around him
There's safer people to put on your roster, availability should also count. He started 13 games as a rookie, I can do the math based on what he produced but I also think teams will account for him more than any other player on that offense which is going to inhibit his ability to be wide open all the time.
This is a 1st round pick that feels like pure gambling and wanting to try and catch the folks who already took JJ and Chase.
High risk, possible high reward but no sure thing. I respect hose who do decide to take him, I just think you might be in here on Sundays complaining more often than you think
Good Luck!
Pretty much everything you say was true last year, or worse, and he still put up numbers. You don't think teams accounted for him last year?
And QB situation was far worse. Russ can still throw the deep ball and knows his only shot is through Nabers. But let’s say he’s washed. Then it’s Jameis.
To both of you that read my post, "I respect those who do decide to take him"
He just won't be on my team at this price.
I don't think anyone is arguing with your decision to have him on your DND list at his current price, anyone can respect that decision, they're just saying your arguments for doing so are flawed. Reverting to "I won't draft him at this price" instead of addressing your flawed arguments is weak sauce.
You say others in his range are safer, I say who? There are real arguments against anyone at this level in the draft, and even the guys who are "can't miss" above MN can easily miss based on a variety of factors.
Hey Jacob, thanks for taking the time to post back
Maybe you're right, maybe I do have a blind spot
170 targets last year, just seems super high for an 11 yds per catch rate
I understand and again respect that others are excited to get him after the big names come off the board
Maybe Nabers is a big name as well, I want to see Year 2 before i go and commit a 1st round pick on him
If his ADP is 12th overall which I just looked it up, not sure how accurate that is, i thought he was going 7th/8th overall
In a 10-team redraft i can see pairing him with another high expectation WR on the turn to try and have an explosive 1-2 punch
I'm not excited about Russ in New York, others seem to think he will do rather well there
I watched most of his games. The numbers are deceiving. The quality of his targets was putrid. His talent jumped off the page at me and any of the 3 QBs currently on the roster are a huge upgrade compared to what he had to play with last year. I doubt he'll see so many targets again, but I'd be willing to bet my left arm his yards per catch will increase dramatically. If you watch the tape, he wins and he wins big on most every route. If he had a competent QB last year, his numbers would look more like Justin Jefferson's rookie year. He's that good, maybe better. We're just scratching the surface with him.
Now, what I will say about him which is my only real red flag. Watching him so closely, he always seemed to be nicked. Between games nursing injuries, questionable tags, looking dinged getting up play after play, whatever. That worries me a bit but I remember another receiver I felt the exact same about for many years until I finally admitted defeat - Mike Evans.
Nabers WAS the offense last year. He was the focus of every D. He beat every coverage, and he beat it bad. He was open in ways that made bad QBs pull the trigger. No small windows. Massive picture windows to throw through. His talent is undeniable. He has the potential to be the #1 WR in the league for the next 5 seasons. I feel this way about very few guys in the NFL. No one in this range is "safe," so give me upside all day every day. Chase, JJ, Nabers, Nico, BTJ and maybe CeeDee.
The way you're talking about Nabers is the way I talk about guys like MHjr, Odunze, Pearsall, etc. These guys need to prove it. Nabers has proven it.